Published in the Journal of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering – UNIBEN

Published by Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Benin, Benin City,
Nigeria
VOL. 15, ISSUE 1, APRIL 2017, ISSN 15965538, Pages 106- 121

FLOOD MODELLING AND RISK ASSESSMENT

OF LAGOS ISLAND AND PART OF ETI-OSA LOCAL
GOVERNMENT AREAS IN LAGOS STATE
Dupe N. Olayinka1 and Hudson E. Irivbogbe2
1
Department of Surveying & Geoinformatics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Lagos, Lagos
State, Nigeria.
2
Hesi-Geomatics Limited, Lagos State, Nigeria.
Correspondence: [email protected]
Abstract
The presence of flood as a result of excessive rainfall is a huge problem in most parts of Lagos state
Nigeria, especially in the coastal areas. The adjoining areas of the Lagos Island and Eti-Osa Local
Government Areas (LGAs) have been faced with severe flooding over time, leading to the
destruction of properties, disruption of commercial activities and this causes a negative effect in the
lives of the people present in the area. This study adopts the use of Remote Sensing, HEC
(Hydrological Engineering Centre) modelling packages such as HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software
packages as well as GIS software (ArcGIS 10.1) for the flood modelling and mapping of the
adjoining areas of the these LGAs. Flood inundation map and three dimensional views of the flood
modelling results are provided. Assessment of buildings at risk is carried out. Suggestions on how
the flood plain can be better managed are also given.

Keywords: Flooding, Mapping, HEC-RAS, HEC-HMS, GIS, Vulnerability

1.0 Introduction
Many communities have suffered severe losses due to the problem of flooding. So many lives have
been lost due to flooding. It has led to the destruction of properties, leading to major economic
damages in such places. This makes it paramount to prepare for its occurrence before time and to
provide ways in which its effect can be minimized or averted. In the past decade in Nigeria,
thousands of lives and properties worth millions of Naira have been lost directly or indirectly from
flooding every year (Ishaya, 2009). Nigeria is one of the countries faced with the issue of flooding.
There are economic losses due to the effect of flooding, on a yearly basis. In Lagos, a state that has
a low-lying topography, areas like Festac, Lagos Island, Eti-Osa etc., which are some major urban
and commercial areas of the state, are usually flooded due to excessive rainfall leading to the loss of
lives and destruction of properties in such areas.

Overtime, different approaches or methods have been employed in flood modelling, analyses and
predictions and the production of flood vulnerability maps. Flood vulnerability assessments have
been carried out by various people and researchers in various ways. Their methods are tied to the
Journal of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering - UNIBEN c 2017
data availability, objectives of the flood vulnerability study as well as the desired results to be
obtained. In some cases, the need to carry out a flood plain mapping is of great importance and in
some other cases just the use of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) raster based calculations can reveal
areas that are highly prone to flooding. With the advent of technologies like Global Positioning
Systems, Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology and Geospatial Information Systems
(GIS), the speed and quality of map making has greatly improved. As a result of this, maps created
are not just maps but have become a reliable source of information that aid good decision making
and planning. LIDAR, a remote sensing technology that provides us with precise three dimensional
data of features, has revolutionized the process of three dimensional positioning and mapping,
which is a great requirement in accurate flood modelling, inundation mapping and predictions.

Eric Christopher Tate in 1999 carried out a research work that presented a straightforward
approach, involving the processing of output results from HEC-RAS hydraulic model, to enable
two- and three-dimensional floodplain mapping and analysis in the ArcView Geographic
Information System. The methodology employed was applied to a reach of Waller Creek, located in
Austin, Texas. A planar floodplain view was developed using digital orthophotos as a base map. A
digital terrain model was also synthesized from HEC-RAS cross-sectional coordinate data and a
digital elevation model of the study area. The resulting surface model provided a good
representation of the general landscape and contained additional detail within the stream channel.
The results of the research indicated that GIS is an effective tool for floodplain mapping and
analysis. A floodplain map covering the study area was created.

According to Evans et al., (2004), GIS applications in flood risk mapping range from storing and
managing hydrological data to generating flood inundation and hazard maps to assist flood risk
management. In a strategic flood risk assessment for the Medway Estuary, Evans et al., (2004) used
a combination of various datasets such as near-shore bathymetry, low level LIDAR, forward and
downward looking video, LIDAR as well as flood defence asset data. GIS was used in manipulating
and processing the various forms and types of spatial data for the strategic flood risk assessment and
this was linked to the 1D and 2D flood modelling techniques. TUFLOW was used for the flood
modelling process. The use of GIS in land classification, data processing, the creation of Digital
Terrain Model (DTM), flood risk and hazard mapping and the integration of GIS with modelling,
was of great emphasis in their work. The results obtained from their work include flood risk/hazard
maps and assessments for the study area. A two dimensional simulation scenario was also created in
the cause of their work. Their study also involved flood modelling of the adjoining areas of the
study area. It covered the area in which the drainage network data (which is a key data requirement
for the modelling process), acquired for the project covered. The HEC modelling packages (HEC-
HMS and HEC-RAS), were used for the flood modelling process. In addition to the key data
requirements such as the drainage network, LIDAR (DEM) and land use data, other forms of data
like the precipitation data and information on the elevation of buildings were inputted in the
production of a two dimensional representation of the flood modelling results (flood inundation
map) and the three dimensional representation of the study area respectively.

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1.1 The study area
This study focuses on two Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Lagos state - Lagos Island LGA and
a part of Eti-Osa LGA (covering Ikoyi, Lekki Phase 1 and Victoria Island). These areas are dynamic
in nature. Eti-Osa and Lagos Island are adjoining LGAs both sharing boundaries on the North with
Lagos Lagoon, which is the largest coastal lagoon in Western Africa. Eti-Osa LGA directly shares
its boundary on the south with the Atlantic Ocean. Lagos Island LGA in Lagos is a densely
populated area in Lagos State. It has a land area of approximately 4.996 square kilometres. It is
located within Latitude 6o 26' 34'' N and Longitude 3o 24' 30'' E on the left and Latitude 6o 27' 38'' N
and Longitude 3o 22' 42'' E on the right. Lagos Island can be described as a place with a variety of
land uses. It is a notable commercial area but also has a mixture of residential and institutional land
uses. On the other hand, Eti-Osa LGA is located within Latitude 6o 26' 34'' N and Longitude 3o 24'
30'' E on the left and Latitude 6o 29' 04'' N and Longitude 3o 39' 09'' E on the right. It covers a land
area of approximately 174.066 square kilometres and it is an area that consists of very high
commercial activity in Lagos State. Figure 1 shows the location of the study areas. It clearly depicts
the study areas surrounded by water, with Eti-Osa directly adjoining the Atlantic Ocean.

Figure 1: Representation of the location of the study areas with water bodies present in Lagos State.
Lagos Island and Eti-Osa LGAs are labelled ‘1’ and ‘2’ respectively.

2.0 The Models

In the course of determining flood inundation in this project, two modelling components namely the
Hydrologic Model and the Hydraulic Model are used. HEC (the United States Hydrologic
Engineering Centre) provides two platforms over which each of these are conducted. These are the
HMS (Hydrologic Modelling System) and RAS (River Analysis System). HEC modelling packages
(HMS and RAS) are used in this research because of the ease of the parameterization of spatial data
available for the study area. These packages have been used by various people in mapping
Journal of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering - UNIBEN c 2017
inundation extents and have been proved efficient in flood modelling (Bates, 2004; Castellarin et
al., 2009; Bonner et al., 1999; Horritt and Bates, 2002; Knebl et al., 2005). The models are well
compatible with GIS applications so that the platforms maintain a perfectly consistent interaction
throughout the modelling process (Feldman and DeVantier, 1993; Bechteler et al., 1994; Whiteaker
et al., 2006). The modelling softwares are particularly suitable for the study area due to the fact that
over time, they have shown good practical use in modelling urban areas using elevation and land
cover data.

2.1 HEC-HMS hydrological model

The HEC-HMS model is simply a rainfall-runoff model that is used to transform precipitation data
into direct flow while taking into consideration topography and surface characteristics. It takes into
account several parameters of flow transformation, routing and loss in the determination of excess
overland flow. It is able to perform its computation using a number of transform methods
(Scharffenberg et al., 2010). A particularly important parameter is the infiltration rate as it has the
highest effect in determining runoff loss (Jones, 1997). The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve
Number (CN), a parameter for quantifying infiltration and storm runoff using land cover type,
antecedent moisture condition and hydrologic soil group (Ponce and Hawkins, 1996) of an area, is
utilized in this research.
Excess precipitation amounting to runoff is computed using Equation 1 (Feldman, 2000):

Eqn. 1

Substituting the empirical relationship of Ia and S, given as , as developed by the SCS, the

equation is given as follows (Feldman, 2000):

Eqn. 2

The maximum retention S and the watershed characteristics are related through an intermediate
parameter, the curve number (CN). This is given by Equations 3 and 4 as follows (Feldman, 2000):

Eqn. 3

Eqn. 4

Equation 3 is used for measurements in foot – pound system while Equation 4 is used for
measurements in SI units.
Where,

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Pe = Runoff (accumulated precipitation excess at time tin (mm);
P = accumulated precipitation depth (at time t in mm);
S = potential maximum retention (a measure of the ability of the watershed to abstract and retain
storm precipitation; and
Ia = Initial abstraction (loss).

The channel routing computation follows in the determination of hydrographs or discharge rate. The
method used is the Lag method. Routing Lag is dependent on the time of concentration. The value
is estimated using the Curve Number parameter (see Feldman, 2000).

2.2 HEC-RAS hydraulic model

The Hydraulic model on the other hand is used to determine water surface levels, flooding depth,
extents and flow distribution velocities. The HEC River Analysis System (RAS) model is used for
this study. The HEC-RAS solves the full 1-Dimensional (1D) St Venant equation and it has been
demonstrated to return promising results well comparable to 2D models (Horritt and Bates, 2002),
while maintaining simplicity and employing geometric parameterization derivable from spatial data
(Cook and Merwade, 2009). The model performs a computation of open channel flow and this is
applied along defined cross-sections placed at intervals on flow reaches. Steady flow computation is
based on the energy equation expressed as (Ackerman, 2011; Brunner, 2001, 2010):

Eqn. 5

Where,
Z1, Z2 = elevation of channel bottom;
Y1, Y2 = water depth at cross sections;
V1, V2 = average velocities (overall discharge/total flow area);
a1, a2 = gravitational acceleration; and
he = energy head loss.

The energy head loss is given as (Ackerman, 2011; Brunner, 2001, 2010):

Eqn. 6

Where,
L = discharge weighted reach length;
Sf = representative friction slope between two sections;
C = expansion or contraction loss coefficient;
The discharge weighted reach length, L is given as (Ackerman, 2011; Brunner, 2001, 2010):

Journal of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering - UNIBEN c 2017

 Eqn. 7

Where,
Llob, Lch, Lrob = cross section reach lengths specified for flow in the left overbank, main channel and
right over bank, respectively;
Qlob + Qch + Qrob = arithmetic average of the flows between section for the left overbank, main
channel and right over bank, respectively.

3.0 Data and Methods

The methodology involved the integration of the hydrological model (HEC-HMS) and the hydraulic
model (HEC-RAS) with GIS.

3.1 Data acquisition

Most of the data acquired for this study are from secondary sources. The data used include:
1. LIDAR DEM acquired in the year 2008, in classified text file format, covering the study
area was obtained from the Office of the Surveyor General of Lagos State. A 5m resolution
DEM was created from the text files.
2. Drainage network covering the main channels of the study area from the Lagos State
Drainage network manual produced in the year 2012.
3. ESRI vector shapefiles of buildings (general infrastructure) covering most parts of the study
area for the year 2009 was obtained from the Office of the Surveyor General of Lagos State.
4. Landuse map covering the entire study area for the year 2002 was obtained from the
Ministry of Physical Planning, Lagos State.
5. Landuse map covering the western part (Banana Island inclusive) of the study area, for the
year 2011.
6. Daily Precipitation data (spanning a total period of six months (1st July - 31st December
2012) from TRMM Online Visualization and Analysis System (TOVAS), a member of
Giovanni (GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure).

3.2 Hydrological model development (HEC-HMS modelling)

In order to analyse the rainfall water volume and return an amount of runoff water volume, the
hydrological model (HEC-HMS) is used. In order to develop the hydrological model in HEC-HMS
three components are required - a basin model, a meteorological model and a control specifications
component. The basin model was created using the ArcGIS extension of HEC-HMS, HEC-
GeoHMS. The LIDAR DEM served as the foundation for this process. A terrain preprocessing was
carried out on the DEM. A DEM reconditioning process and a final production of the
hydrologically corrected DEM was carried out. Further operations to prepare the DEM for use in
HEC-HMS were carried out. All hydrologic parameters and basin characteristics were provided. A
final basin processing was carried out in HEC-HMS after a project generation in the same modeling
package. Figure 2 shows the LIDAR DEM with the embedded drainage network.

Journal of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering - UNIBEN c 2017

 Figure 2: DEM with embedded drainage network

A meteorological model was developed in the HEC-HMS modelling package. Daily precipitation
data acquired for a period of six months were added to the HEC-HMS project generated. This was
to provide it with adequate amount of rainfall data to be used in the model calculation process. The
control specification specifies the time window for which the model calculates discharges. Control
specifications for each time window that the model makes calculations was created. A time interval
of 24 hours was used since daily precipitation data was acquired for the study. Figure 3 shows the
HEC-RAS modelling operation.

Figure 3: HEC-HMS modelling for this study

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3.3 Hydraulic model development (HEC-RAS modelling)
HEC-RAS was used to predict the movement of the runoff water over the surface. Results of the
hydrological model previously created (rainfall runoff volume) was used by HEC-RAS to analyse
the way the water moves on the study area and the places where it concentrates, creating inundation
problems. A hydraulic model developed in HEC-RAS for floodplain inundation analysis, is
constituted by two groups of datasets: the geometrical data (shown in Figure 4) and the runoff water
flow data. The geometrical data that is needed for the hydraulic model that is developed in
HECRAS was extracted from the LIDAR DEM by use of the HEC-GeoRAS extension in the
ArcGIS 10.1 environment. This includes the river centrelines, banks and flow paths. A proper pre-
processing using HEC-GeoRAS was carried out. All stream centrelines, bank lines, flow paths as
well as cross sections were created. Appropriate Manning’s N values were assigned for each of the
cross sections in preparation for the flow analyses in the HEC-RAS environment. All geometric
data were imported into the HEC-RAS modelling environment.

The next step, in the hydraulic model development was to add the steady flow data. The steady flow
data and analysis applies a time series of discharge rates at each river reach in the computation of
cross sectional hydraulic flow. The discharge rates are fed into columns termed as profiles in the
steady flow data workspace. The profiles need to read information from the HMS discharge model
results at specified time steps. To do this, a DSS (data store) connection is made to the location of
the data store of results from the HMS model run. Figure 5 shows the flow data and conditions for
all reaches being inputted.

Figure 4: Geometric data of the hydraulic model in HEC-RAS

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 Figure 5: Entering flow data and conditions for all reaches

After a model run, data from HEC-RAS was imported into the GIS environment for the post-
processing and flood mapping of the model results. This was carried out using the HEC-GeoRAS
extension. The water surface generation, flood plain delineations and the subsequent flood
inundation map production were carried out. Figure 6 shows the cross-sectional profile check and
display (for peak flows).

Figure 6: Cross-sectional profile check and display (for peak flows)

4.0 Results and Discussion

The flood inundation map showing the flood depth and extent was prepared in ArcGIS 10.1 and is
shown in Figure 7.

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 Figure 7: Flood Inundation map representation

In the course of delineating the flood extent, a bounding polygon for the inundation extent was
created and the area for this polygon was calculated. The total area covered by this polygon was
7649280.652sq.meters (7.649sq.kilometres). This value excludes the area covered by the
waterbody.

4.1 Flood risk assessment on buildings

Buildings that fall within the inundation extent are typically the ones at the greatest risk, when there
is a severe flooding event. It was therefore important to make a count of the building types that lie
within these areas so as to know the structures that are at risk and the threat this poses on the lives
of people and even the environment at large. The buildings in the study area are shown in a map in
Figure 8.

Figure 8: Buildings present in study area

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In ArcGIS, all buildings within the inundation extent were extracted and a count on the various
building types was made. The result in percentage is given in Table 1. This distribution is illustrated
graphically in Figure 9.

Table 2: Percentage coverage of buildings at risk

Building Type Percentage Coverage (%)
Business and Commerce 13.51
Institutional 13.164
Other uses 0.155
Recreational 0.829
Residential/Commercial 72.342

Figure 9: Chart showing Buildings within the flood extent at high risk by percentage distribution

4.2 Flood modelling validation

In order to validate results derived from the flood inundation model run, pictures of the locations
within the study site were collected during and after heavy rainfall at various times. GPS locations
and place names of these locations were also acquired and plotted on the flood map. Field
observations were made at locations where the model had returned considerable flood and also at
locations where little or no flood was returned. The purpose was to test for locations that were over-
predicted, under-predicted or where there was no prediction for flood inundation. This matching of
field data to the map is shown in Figures 10 and 11.

Coordinates acquired for the locations were used to geo-locate them over the flood model with the
image files (images taken on field after rainfall) of these points hyperlinked to them. An inspection
of modelled inundation against pictorial representations was then conducted at each location.

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 Figure 10: Geo-locating GPS coordinates (to match flood modelling results)

Figure 11: Relating site picture of flooded location with its position on the map

Figure 11 depicts the flood inundation image of a location in Lagos Island (Sura area) and its
corresponding position on the flood map. This image matches the location on the map showing the
result of the flood model and extent. An important observation is that some of the locations
predicted to have flood had undergone structural change on site due to construction and
redevelopment that had taken place in the space of time that had elapsed since the collection of the
LIDAR geometric data used for flood modelling. In these areas, it is expected that the model return
would be different from ground conditions as the elevation data is no longer representative of the
prevailing terrain. Table 2 shows a summary of field validation results.
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 Table 2: Validation results for the flood model result by geo-locating the GPS points
Eti-Osa
Lagos
Island Victoria Island and Ikoyi
Lekki Phase 1
No. of Locations 17 8 13
Matched Flood Prediction 17 4 6
No Flood Prediction (From
0 2 3
Model)
Change In Ground Condition 0 2 4

4.3 Discussion
The floodplain modelling system used in this study has provided results that can help in
preparedness and awareness creation concerning flooding in the study areas. The flood model result
shows a range of flood depths and its extent in the study area considered. From the results provided
in Table 1 and the chart depicting this result in Figure 9, we see that buildings (structures) that have
the highest risk (within the flood extent obtained from the model result), with a total percentage
coverage of 72.34%, are mainly for residential/commercial purposes. This is followed by buildings
that are strictly for business and commerce, which have a total of 13.51%. These results show that
the lives of the people living in this area as well as the commercial activities, are highly threatened
and this will have a severe negative impact on the social well-being of the inhabitants.

From the flood modelling and validation process carried out, most of the highly vulnerable areas or
areas that are at the highest risk fall within Lagos Island Local Government Area. Places like
Binuyo, Dolphin Estate, as well as Sura are highly inundated from the modelling results and even in
the course of site visitation. The Idumagbo roads as well as Adeniji road, which are highly
commercial areas, are highly at risk. This is mainly due to the fact that these areas are highly low in
elevation and some of the residential and commercial activities carried out are within the drainage
outlets. This further poses threat to the activities present therein. Other areas at risk are Osbourne in
Ikoyi, Ikoyi West, Victoria Island, Lekki Phase 1 as well as some places in Banana Island. The
results obtained for these areas mentioned in terms of flood depth and extent are not as high as those
obtained for the areas at risk in Lagos Island LGA.

5.0 Conclusion
The results and information generated from this study using LIDAR data, remote sensing
techniques, flood modelling (using the HEC model) as well as GIS analyses have demonstrated that
it is possible to effectively produce flood vulnerability maps at various levels of vulnerability (low,
moderate and high vulnerability levels) as well as make predictions as regards flooding in the study
area. This makes it possible to carry out desired analyses and inferences at whatever time it is
required.

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6.0 Recommendations
It is compulsory that care must be taken to ensure that the data gathered for such studies are
accurate, so as to produce precise results from which effective policies, laws and other regulations
will be implemented. It is also recommended that:
1. The quality of data and maps produced as well as the modelling process carried out in flood
modelling should be treated as a valuable resource by the relevant authorities in the proper
handling and management of flooding in Eti-Osa and Lagos Island.
2. This project may be adopted and used as a source for planning and management in the study
area and indeed in other administrative entities.
3. The development of good policy and proper planning with the results obtained from this
project will go a long way in reducing flooding occurrences as well as help in the control
and management of such occurrences in the study area.
4. Proper data provision, updating and management for such projects should be carried out.
This will aid in the ease of the execution of such projects more frequently, thereby providing
up to date information at various times.
5. Proper flood warning systems should be put in place for the study area for flood monitoring
processes.
6. Future research efforts can incorporate more comprehensive databases of other socio-
economic information in such modelling.
7. Good institutional framework should be established at all levels of governments down to the
individual who will be coordinating the affairs of producers and users of geo-spatial data.
8. Seminars and conferences should be organized to showcase the usefulness of projects such
as this one to the authorities concerned. They should therefore be adopted as instruments for
subsequent development and monitoring of activities within the study area.

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