Cushman & Wakefield - International Investment Atlas - 2014 March
Cushman & Wakefield - International Investment Atlas - 2014 March
Cushman & Wakefield - International Investment Atlas - 2014 March
INVESTMENT ATLAS
SUMMARY
A Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Research Publication
2014
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
INTRODUCTION
Welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield International CONTENTS
Investment Atlas publication. This report has been prepared
Global Investment Activity 2–15
by Cushman & Wakefield to provide an introduction to the
Asia Pacific 7
world’s key commercial real estate investment markets in
2013 and an indication of activity in 2014.
The report covers the main areas of activity, showing the size and status
of each and giving a flavour for the real estate sectors and a brief view on
where each is heading.
This summary report is supplemented by three Regional Market Profiles EMEA 8
for The Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, all of which include page by
page country overviews, totalling 55 global countries.
The Americas 9
400 8.2%
Quarterly investment volumes (USD bn)
350
8.0%
All-sector average prime yield
300
7.8%
250
200 7.6%
150
7.4%
100 While trends are mixed, the speed with which sentiment has turned supply and demand, both in terms of quantity and quality given the
50 7.2% has surprised many, leading some to question whether investment changes underway in what occupiers want.
markets are getting too far ahead of the occupational cycle and
0 7.0% The reaction of occupiers to the global recovery has been patchy
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 whether a liquidity driven bubble will burst when the Federal Reserve
to date, with some areas of increased take-up but few with rental
and others start to rein in quantitative easing (QE). The degree of
growth and some markets still being fed by large development
unanimity on the positive outlook at the turn of the year was certainly a
pipelines including emerging markets in Asia, Central and Eastern
Investment Volume Yield (ex multifamily) cause for caution, but that has now unwound. While there are
Europe and Latin America. At the same time, new occupier demand
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data: Deals over USD5 mn including land downside risks and the recovery is very much multi-speed, tapering
patterns are emerging globally, while demand from growth sectors
should be coincident with better economic and corporate confidence
Stronger growth was seen in most core markets, from the USA to the led by TMT are exciting markets in all regions, led by London,
– and hence should precede an increase in occupational demand and
UK, Japan, Germany and Australia, while a surge in China, led by land New York, Singapore and Hong Kong.
growing property incomes. What is more, the more diverse range of
sales, put the icing on the cake for a vintage year by volumes and rate
current opinion hopefully sets the scene for differing investment Overall, the volatility of the equity market in the opening weeks of the
of growth. Emerging market trends have been diverse however, with
objectives, resulting in a more varied, active and dynamic market. year is in many ways a return to normality and a reminder of the
second tier Chinese centres up as well as a host of other countries such
challenges and opportunities ahead. For real estate these are perhaps
as Mexico, UAE, Vietnam, Malaysia, Russia and Turkey. At the same time With bond yields already increased, the main impact of an end to QE
best encapsulated by the view that it will be change rather than growth
emerging market stalwarts such as Brazil, India, Indonesia and Thailand will be felt in emerging markets as liquidity drops. However, it should
which drives success, be that in investment and funding or in changing
saw volumes fall as a mix of political and economic factors impacted. also be taken as a reminder that investors need to stay focused on
working and shopping patterns and sustainability needs.
fundamental real estate drivers – in particular the mismatch between
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International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
REGIONAL TRENDS FIGURE 2 – TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MARKET IN 2013 FIGURE 3 – CROSS BORDER INVESTMENT BY REGION (2013)
All regions saw a positive trend over 2013, but developments within Change in Investment (%pa) Prime Yield Change (bp) Prime ERV Growth (%pa)
each became more diverse. Asia for example led the way for volumes
35% 0 5%
thanks to growth in China as well as Japan and Australia, but this had to North America
5
offset declines in Taiwan, India, South Korea, Hong Kong and Thailand. 30%
4% APAC
Interestingly, in EMEA, while trends were again diverse, the upturn was 25% 10
broader than in recent years, with the UK and Germany still driving the 15 Latin America
20% 3%
majority of regional growth but Russia, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands 20
and Belgium all posting marked increases as did UAE, Israel and South 15% EMEA
25 2%
Africa in the Middle East and Africa sub-region. At the same time, 10%
markets such as France, Sweden and Poland did little more than keep 30
1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
5%
pace with 2012 while Norway, Switzerland and Denmark all fell back. 35
Investment share in 2013
Tokyo – Japan 0% 40 0%
Americas EMEA APAC Americas Europe APAC Americas Europe APAC
Domestic Regional Global
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data Note rent and yield excluding multifamily Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data
The Americas meanwhile failed to be the driver behind global In all regions cross border investors grew in significance and rose
growth for the first time since 2009. However, the region still by 24.3% over the year versus a 22.3% increase in domestic demand,
produced a very strong outturn led by the USA but with a significant delivering a slightly increased market share of 17.6%. A significant
upturn in Mexico and a stable showing from Canada. By contrast, shift in the nature of cross border players is taking place, however,
Brazil saw a decline in volumes as did a number of smaller markets with global as opposed to regional investors coming to the fore.
such as Argentina. Regional investment rose 13% while global investment was up 36%,
driven particularly by investment into Europe.
Value trends were similarly diverse although most areas saw prime
yields stabilise and fall by the year-end, with the Americas leading The main source of international capital is the Asia Pacific region,
overall and signs of pressure spreading from tier 1 to tier 2 markets accounting for nearly 40% of all non-domestic spending. However,
as tight supply and an attractive yield gap enticed buyers. the majority of this is invested within the Asian region, and looking at
global rather than regional spending, it is North American investors
Rents meanwhile were largely subdued, increasing by
who very much drove the market, investing USD43.8 bn, 43% of the
just 2.5% globally, their slowest pace since 2009. Asia was the
total spent outside an investor’s home region.
lead region thanks to the buoyancy of office markets such as
Jakarta, Taipei and Manila. Retail was the most dynamic sector Nevertheless, the fastest growing source of global capital is no longer
globally, with rents ahead by 3.4%, led by Europe but with all North America – Asian investors increased their spending outside
regions posting 3% plus gains as retailers focused on global their region by 88% while Middle Eastern Investors beat that,
expansion in gateway markets. increasing spending by 96%. By contrast, North American investment
outside the Americas rose 23%, and European investment outside the
region was virtually flat.
Momentum building as confidence returns
"The real estate market ended 2013 on a high, supported by greater confidence, rising liquidity and the
fact that momentum is building further this year. Indeed, there are signs of a firmer occupier market as
well as greater investment demand and new sources of debt set to drive investment activity, all of which
should push property pricing higher."
3
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
70
and PingAn have made their presence felt in gateway markets such it is a fundamental change in the property
60 as London and New York. More is to come as smaller institutions
50 follow their lead. At the same time, other Chinese players are also that businesses want. In all sectors, occupiers are
40 looking further afield, with Gingko Tree perhaps the most travelled, reacting to new ways of working and shopping, to
30
looking in regional UK, Belgium, Germany and Poland in Europe for new technology and to factors such as sustainability
example. However while Chinese investors put USD14.5 bn into the
20 global market in 2013, they will still struggle to be dominant overall
and a need for real estate to help retain talent.
10 with other Asian funds also increasing, led by Singaporean, South Furthermore, there has been a move toward
0 Korean and Japanese funds, and of course the current dominant more intense uses of space, resulting in a significant
Asia Europe Americas MEA region – North America – also set to invest more globally. reduction in the area per worker. As a result,
Global Regional more than ever investors need to focus on what the
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA
occupier wants as well as what they want to avoid."
American players increased their regional spending – up by London – England
44% – largely due to stronger Canadian investment into the USA.
European investment within their own region actually fell, partly
due to a greater focus domestically but also due to strong
competition from global players.
Pension and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) remain more focused
on Europe than other regions, with 59% of 2013 commercial
investment (excluding land and multifamily) heading towards EMEA
followed by 28% for the Americas and 13% for Asia. Both groups are
seeking offices, averaging 57% of investment, although pension funds
have a higher allocation towards retail (33%) while SWFs are
frequently interested in the hospitality sector (29%).
Country targets were relatively similar for the two with the US
and the UK dominating, as they do for most investor types. Other
countries attracting the lion’s share of pension fund investment are
Germany, Canada and Australia, with each clearly having a strong
domestic pension fund market underpinning this.
Among Sovereign Wealth Funds, France, Italy and the UAE were
top five targets in 2013 while for insurance and private equity funds,
Germany, France and China rounded out the top five. However
while many of these global funds are set on core countries and
gateway cities, others are increasingly ready to look towards
smaller cities and second tier countries.
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International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
By sector, development sites led the way in 2013 with a 31% increase
and a 39% market share. This was driven by Asia where land accounted
for 76% of trading last year versus just 4.3% in EMEA and 4.2% in the
Americas. Away from land, offices remain the largest investment
market, with a global market share of 23% and 20% growth in 2013,
which was strongest in Asia but robust in all markets. Retail meanwhile
had a 14% global market share after seeing relatively weak growth of
10% in 2013, with the Americas and EMEA showing stronger growth
but Asian retail volumes declining by nearly 14%, giving it a market share
of just 6% versus 19% in the Americas and 23% in EMEA.
50%
45%
40%
% of total new investment
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Offices Retail Industrial Multifamily Hospitality Land
5
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 estate, a 22% increase on 2012. London closed the gap in second 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
place however, with a 38% increase; while Shanghai, Tokyo and
China Beijing rounded out the top five as Los Angeles and Hong Kong moved New York
down to make way for the two mainland Chinese giants. Among
USA London
cross border global investors, London is very much top, with New
UK
York second, Paris third, Sydney fourth and Tokyo fifth. By sector, Shanghai
New York is the top global market for retail, multifamily and hotels,
Germany while London is first for offices and Los Angeles for industrial. Tokyo
Japan Beijing
A rapid but front-loaded recovery is now underway
Australia
"Recovery is taking place more rapidly than expected, Los Angeles
Canada and speed is likely to remain a feature of the market Hong Kong
Hong Kong
as much in how quickly pricing adjusts as how demand Hangzhou
spreads out. However, while occupier markets are
France
firmer, supply varies considerably globally. What is San Francisco
Sweden
overall tenant market – albeit to differing degrees – Washington
and thus the profile of the recovery will be front-
Russia
loaded, with strong short term gains followed Singapore
Netherlands Nanjing
New York – USA
Italy Chicago
Malaysia Suzhou
Spain Houston
Poland Dallas
Norway Berlin
Mexico Sydney
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International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
ASIA PACIFIC result while Australia was boosted by foreign buying demand, Occupier sentiment has been mixed but somewhat lower as
notably from China, as well as by stronger domestic demand. economic trends have been assimilated. A lot of businesses are wary
Asia Pacific saw the fastest growth in investment volumes of any
of taking on more risk with a range of factors to preoccupy them
region in 2013, with a 25% increase delivering a year end volume of In Hong Kong and Singapore demand slowed as calming measures
from environmental disaster in the Philippines, to upcoming elections,
USD568.6 bn, 48% of the global market. It is notable, however, that a took effect, although Singapore looks to be ahead of Hong Kong
political turmoil in Thailand, weak economic fundamentals in India
very significant share of this related to land sales in China, which soared in terms of stabilising from this. At a city level, Tokyo was again
and Indonesia and slowing growth and credit constraints in China.
37% to USD397 bn, 34% of the global total. Taking Chinese land sales dominant although Sydney was faster growing. Hong Kong
out of the regional total, volumes grew by just 5% and the market maintained its second place despite a fall in volumes while Osaka, Such caution is also not surprising given the volatile nature of the
slowed considerably in the final quarter as the pace of land bank Nanjing and Shenzhen were the fastest growing larger markets. global recovery and the slower trajectory of growth that investors
accumulation slowed due to tighter liquidity and the higher costs of are growing accustomed to in Asia. However, while this creates social
Despite slower demand, development has remained high in parts of
holding sites. Land sales over the year were nonetheless at record and economic uncertainties, it also promises growth in some areas,
the region such as non-core office areas of Shanghai and Beijing as
levels, with Shanghai and Beijing particularly strong as well as other notably for those that successfully reform but also in areas exposed
well as tier 2 Chinese cities such as Chengdu, Tainjin and Chongqing
tier 1 cities where underlying growth is judged to be secure such as to the change in economic balance from investment to consumption
where activity has been boosted by some developers turning away
Shenzhen and Guangzhou. This planned development will also fuel a and in areas offering productivity gains such as modern logistics.
from the residential sector. Elsewhere, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and
pick-up in construction that will help drive economic growth in 2014/15.
key Indian cities have active development pipelines.
Demand for prime standing investments picked up in emerging
Hong Kong
markets in the final quarter, led by China for retail and offices,
while industrial had a strong year overall with core markets such
as Japan and Singapore performing well and looking set to remain
in strong demand.
Vietnam and Malaysia led the way for global emerging markets,
bettered only by Mexico, with volumes up 58% and 37% respectively.
With growth of 36% and 23%, Japan and Australia were also up
strongly but core markets still grew by just 6% versus a 33% increase
in developing markets. Japan saw significant yield compression as a
200 7.0%
Quarterly investment volumes (USD bn)
180 6.9%
All-sector average prime yield
160 6.8%
140 6.7%
120 6.6%
100 6.5%
80 6.4%
60 6.3%
40 6.2%
20 6.1%
0 6.0%
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13
7
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
120 7.6%
Quarterly investment volumes (USD bn)
100 7.4%
All-sector average prime yield
7.2%
80
7.0%
60
6.8%
40
6.4%
20
6.2%
0 6.0%
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13
8
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
THE AMERICAS: LATIN AMERICA tier 2 cities, there has been no let up in interest in core product,
FIGURE 10 – LATIN AMERICA
with prices pushed higher as competition remains strong.
Investment activity in Latin America fell 13% in 2013 to USD5.7 bn after PROPERTY INVESTMENT VOLUMES
a weak second half. The fall was due to a decline in global investment, The macro picture for the region has been mixed, although on the
with domestic investment increasing 38% but foreign investment falling back of more aggressive reforms strengthening growth potential and 6 11.1%
by 61% to just 21% of the total, its lowest market share for three years. stability, Mexico has seen its credit rating upgraded, joining Chile as the
9
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
160
Austin – USA and with real estate a play on economic recovery, quality property
All-sector average prime yield
140 7.5%
120
stands to gain.
100 In emerging markets meanwhile, growth is slowing, but this is as one
7.0%
80 would expect as economies such as China and Brazil become larger
60 and are unable to support historic rates of growth. However they
40 6.5% are still growing above expected global averages according to most
20
forecasters. What is more, while some countries face difficulties,
there are opportunities in others in Africa and the Middle East, for
0 6.0%
Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 13 example, and in countries such as Peru, Columbia, Chile and the
Philippines which offer transparency, good infrastructure and
educated workforces.
Investment Volume Yield (ex multifamily)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield and RCA The need but also the pace of reform is actually picking up in most
areas of the world, largely in reaction to the financial crisis and need
Demand is easily outstripping supply in gateway markets, but more
for banking reform but also in response to a need to boost
stock is likely to emerge as some investors take profits and funds
competitiveness and generate growth. Unsurprisingly, it has been
and REITs continue to realign portfolios. Increased interest has also
eurozone countries leading the way, focusing on fiscal stabilisation
emerged in previously overlooked markets as risk appetites have
and consolidation but also social security and labour reform. In other
grown, and while New York, Los Angeles and Washington DC have
areas of Europe reform is underway but typically at a slower pace.
remained dominant, others such as Orlando, Las Vegas and Hawaii
A number of Central & Eastern European markets have also been
have seen the fastest growth in the past year.
active on reform – seeking to stay one step ahead of Western
10
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, World Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics
11
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
12
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
North American volumes are forecast to rise 20% this year with the well-leased prime assets while secondary and tertiary assets face INVESTMENT STRATEGY
US remaining the engine of global growth amid signs of a stronger some headwinds in terms of liquidity.
economic and real estate recovery. Job growth is expected to be Stronger global economic conditions and liquidity will underpin a
Investment in Latin America is expected to show cautious growth further marked improvement in activity in the property market this
stronger, corporate earnings are growing and signs are positive for
in the short term as the region stabilises. Latin America faces a year, with investors seeking secure income producing assets but also
increased consumer and business spending.
mixed macro backdrop, albeit with conditions certainly improving assets that may benefit in an economic upturn. As a result, more will
The gap between the occupational and investment market is less than as export markets pick up and past reforms and stimulus measures be ready to take on risk whether in waiting for growth or in actively
in Europe and thus the firming economy will offer more immediate impact. At the same time, however, public protests are a concern managing or repositioning assets for future demand. At the same
support to the property sector. Occupancy gains should flow quickly for foreign investors and a warning of imbalances in society. Trends time, tapering and a return of normality in a growth constrained
with many markets still below replacement costs. in the region have in reality become more diverse. Occupier and world means investors need to get their diversification policy right,
investor demand has held up better than many anticipated and cities in many cases looking further afield to do this.
Upward pressure on interest rates will translate into pressure on
such as Mexico City and São Paolo have performed well in terms of
yields, but high demand and signs of rental growth will be sufficient to It may therefore be time to change or adjust strategy for those that
investment activity. Investment has tended to become more focused,
hold yields, steady in gateway markets, with demand for institutional have not done so already, with a new strategy attuned to differing
with retail generally up and Mexico gaining over South America, and
assets set to remain well above demand in the top six markets. trends market by market, to seeking and pricing risk correctly, to
while the long term appeal of the market is not in doubt, in the short
Canada appears set for robust, albeit reduced, investment activity in term the efficacy of government decision making and market stability finding differing opportunities up and down the capital stack and
2014 as allocations to domestic pension funds grow and institutional will remain under the microscope. above all to the need to look closely at what the occupier wants.
demand remains unspent. REIT purchasing activity is beginning When it comes to the occupier, two things are important: finding
A firmer economy in the region is expected to support renewed
to renew as capital markets remain available for equity for new talent and finding space that offers the effectiveness and efficiency
occupier demand which will offset higher availability and produce
acquisitions. Foreign investment has played a relatively minor role the business needs e.g. through encouraging collaboration, creativity
modest rental growth in some areas. Retail rents may remain under
in the past few years, but interest in Canada remains high and a and productivity and helping to attract staff via image and quality.
pressure in much of the region until consumer confidence improves
lower-priced dollar may renew appetite from this sector. The large As ever this can point to bigger cities that offer more but it also points
and inflation fears are subdued although Mexico may outperform as
Canadian pension funds are expected to continue their global to better cities that have the right cost base, effective transportation
growing wealth and a larger middle class generate more retailer
investment while focusing largely on major developments in their and can support a higher quality of life for employees.
demand, particularly in tier 2 cities where modern development has
home country. Pricing is expected to remain very strong for
been less concentrated. Strategy towards asset types also needs to adjust meanwhile, with
Amsterdam – The Netherlands
attitudes towards other real assets changing and generally favourably
so, notably towards energy and infrastructure but also areas such as
agriculture and woodlands as well as multi-family residential, leisure,
health and other sub-sectors. Each can offer useful diversification
and performance merits to enhance a portfolio.
Looking by region, Europe looks set to benefit from the start of US
tapering and ongoing emerging market concerns. Core markets look
attractive due to the balance of investor demand as well as improving
occupier interest against a backdrop of a typically restricted supply
of good quality assets thanks to restrained development and an
ageing stock, frequently with inadequate capital investment over
recent years. Opportunities to take more risk are also increasing,
either to develop or reposition assets in core markets, or to look
beyond the core markets to access higher yields.
13
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
14
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
a shift in yield as capital flows change and liquidity is diverted from Core Offices: US CBD Gateway cities Offices: Sydney, Melbourne, Shanghai, Offices: London, Paris, Stockholm,
emerging markets by an end to QE but at the same time, better (New York, San Francisco and LA), Beijing, Tokyo Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin
economic performance should encourage portfolio investors seeking core Canadian cities (Toronto, Vancouver)
Retail and Hospitality: Hong Kong, Retail: Dominant shopping centres and
medium term growth opportunities. Retail: Core 24 hour gateway cities in Tokyo, Sydney luxury/flagship high streets in core German
USA and Canada cities including Munich, Berlin and Stuttgart
Growth in the logistics market for example is likely to be widespread Residential: Japan
plus Paris, London
Apartments: Multifamily in top US
as consumer demand, trade and market changes impact on leasing cities e.g. New York, Boston, San Francisco, LA
Logistics: Top Australian cities
Logistics: London, Paris, Munich,
patterns. In other sectors a return of growth will not be uniform. Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp
Office markets have been driven by consolidation, but there are now
signs of firming demand in some areas, with growth led by cities such Core-Plus Offices: Core space, growth markets Offices: Singapore, Hong Kong, Seoul Offices: Amsterdam, tier 2 German cities,
(Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Denver, UK Thames Valley, Prague, Madrid, Warsaw
as Jakarta and Tokyo but others such as Singapore and Seoul also Boston, Seattle)
Retail: Growth markets such as Singapore,
plus development in core cities: London,
bottoming out. Overall, markets such as Bengaluru, Bangkok, Hong Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Jakarta, Kuala
Paris, Stockholm, Frankfurt
Suburban offices in core US and Canada cities Lumpur and Seoul
Kong, Hyderabad, Jakarta, Manila, Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo look
Retail: Retail refurbishment in core cities
likely to lead for rental growth. Logistics; Core assets: South California, Logistics: Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong
in northern Europe. Core space in larger
New Jersey, Miami and Seattle, Dallas, Chicago
cities in Italy, Poland and Spain
Retailer confidence remains good, although expansion is somewhat
Core leased assets: Mexico
slower as rising costs are assimilated, but the development of the Logistics: German second tier, Warsaw,
retail market is still spurring change and should be a target for more Prague and Budapest
investment going forward. Bangkok and Jakarta will lead for short term Opportunistic Logistics: market servicing key Brazilian and Offices in emerging growth markets: Offices: Lisbon, Moscow, Istanbul, Milan,
retail growth, with key Chinese cities also steadily gathering pace. Mexican cities Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Mumbai and other Barcelona
top Indian cities
Retail and residential development: Retail: Moscow, major cities in Turkey
Santiago, 1st and 2nd tier Brazilian, Mexican Retail: Emerging markets: Hanoi, Kuala and active management/ development in
and Colombian cities Lumpur, Bangkok, New Delhi and other top larger cities
Indian and Chinese cities
FIGURE 12 – GLOBAL PROPERTY Offices: Mexican cities for short term gain Logistics: Development and units
and possibly Lima Logistics: Gateway China Cities: Shanghai, serving large Eastern European cities
INVESTMENT BY REGION
Beijing, Guangdong and India hubs and peripheral western cities: e.g. Oporto,
Under rented class A US office and apartment
Barcelona and Milan
1400 property: South Florida, Dallas, Chicago
Annual investment volumes (USD bn)
1000 Areas of reform will open up new opportunities within the region, India should also be in the spotlight as promised reforms move
800
led of late by Japan where the third arrow of reform is awaited but forward to boost growth and as urbanisation, increasing incomes and
quantitative easing is likely to boost property demand and with a labour cost/quality make the high returns on offer look attractive on
600 potential boost to retail and logistics as deflation ends, the market an absolute and risk adjusted basis. Leased core office assets in tier 1
400 should see increased activity. cities are favoured followed by residential investment, while
industrial is likely to grow in potential quite rapidly.
200 China meanwhile is adjusting to lower and more domestically
orientated growth. High quality logistics and shopping centres are
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
likely to benefit from this while more generally sentiment is improving
beyond just the usual top cities with other tier one cities such as
Suzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu and Guangzhou becoming mainstream
APAC EMEA North America Latin America targets for international capital and many tier 2 cities also on the rise.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, RCA, KTI and Property Data
15
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
EUR MILLIONS – Above USD5 million equivalent, excludes apartments EUR MILLIONS – Above USD5 million equivalent, excludes apartments
COUNTRY 2012 2013 ANNUAL CHANGE 2014 TREND COUNTRY 2012 2013 ANNUAL CHANGE 2014 TREND
16
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
USD MILLIONS – Above USD5 million, excludes apartments USD MILLIONS – Above USD5 million, excludes apartments
COUNTRY 2012 2013 ANNUAL CHANGE 2014 TREND COUNTRY 2012 2013 ANNUAL CHANGE 2014 TREND
17
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
GLOBAL YIELDS
18
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
RESEARCH SERVICES
OUR RESEARCH SERVICES ALLIANCE & ASSISTANCE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
The Central Research & Consultancy Team provides a strategic This report has been prepared by Cushman & Wakefield and its alliance
advisory and supporting role to our clients. Consultancy projects partners globally. The information was collected and edited by the
are undertaken on a local and international basis, providing in-depth Central Research & Consultancy Team from the Cushman & Wakefield
advice and analysis, detailed market appraisals and location and network, with particular thanks to the following offices:
investment strategies. Typical projects include:
Austria Inter-pool Immobilien GmbH
• Site specific location analysis, ranking and targeting for occupation Bahrain Cluttons LLP
or investment Bulgaria Forton
Channel Islands Buckley & Company Ltd.
• Analysis of future development activity and existing Denmark RED – Property Advisers Joanna Tano Erin Can
supply/competition Director Marketing & Editorial Manager
Estonia Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisers*
Head of EMEA Central EMEA Central Research & Consultancy
• Market research and demand analysis by retail or industry sector Finland Tuloskiinteistöt Oy
Research & Consultancy [email protected]
Greece Proprius SA
• Rental analysis, forecasts & investment portfolio strategy Ireland Lisney LLP
[email protected] +44 20 7152 5206
+44 20 7152 5944
• Reliable and comparable data and market intelligence – we regularly Israel Inter Israel Real Estate Consultants
track over 65 countries, including multiple data points across the Latvia Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisers*
world. As part of this consultancy service line, we can provide this Lithuania Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisers*
timeseries data on the retail, office and industrial property sectors. Malaysia YY Property Solutions GLOBAL RESEARCH CONTACTS
New Zealand Bayleys Realty Group Ltd.
For more information on this service line, contact Joanna Tano
Norway Eiendomshuset Malling & Co.
([email protected])
Romania Activ Property Services
Slovenia S-Invest d.o.o.
THE REPORT South Africa ProAfrica Property Services
Switzerland SPG Intercity
This report was written by David Hutchings, Joanna Tano United Arab Emirates Cluttons LLP
and Erin Can of Cushman & Wakefield.
*Not official Cushman & Wakefield alliance partners
This report has been prepared using data collected through our own
research as well as information available to us from public and other Maria Sicola Sigrid Zialcita
Executive Managing Director Managing Director
external sources. The transaction information used relates to SOURCES Americas Research Asia Pacific Research
non-confidential reported market deals, excluding indirect [email protected] [email protected]
Macro economic data
investment and future commitments. In reference to investment +1 415 773 3542 +65 6232 0875
Macrobond, Economist Intelligence Unit, Consensus Economics
volumes, while the report summary considers all sectors including
and the Financial Times.
multifamily residential, the country pages and global volume tables
exclude multifamily residential deals. All investment volumes are On each country page: For industry-leading intelligence to support your real estate
quoted pertaining to deals of USD5 million and above. • The GDP per capita data is on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis and business decisions, go to the Cushman & Wakefield
• The interest rates are year-end base rates Knowledge Center at cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge
In respect of all external information, the sources are believed
to be reliable and have been used in good faith. However, • Currency conversion rates are December month end spot rates
Cushman & Wakefield cannot accept responsibility for their Transactional data
accuracy and completeness, nor for any undisclosed matters that Alongside Cushman & Wakefield information, data has been used
would affect the conclusions drawn. Certain of the assumptions and from Property Data, KTI and Real Capital Analytics.
definitions used in this research work are given within the body of
the text. Information on any other matters can be obtained from Where the data was sourced from RCA it is as at 5 February 2014.
the Central Research & Consultancy Team of Cushman & Wakefield.
19
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
or visit www.cushmanwakefield.com
20
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
21
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
EMEA
BELGIUM ITALY PORTUGAL SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM
Maxime Xantippe BERLIN MILAN Luis Antunes BARCELONA David Erwin
Partner, Head of Capital Markets Hanns-Joachim Fredrich Stephen Screene Partner, Head of Capital Markets Reno Cardiff CEO, Capital Markets UK
[email protected] Partner, Capital Markets Partner, Head of Capital Markets [email protected] Partner, Capital Markets [email protected]
+32 2 514 4000 hannsjoachim.fredrich@ [email protected] +351 21 322 4753 [email protected] +44 20 7152 5016
Avenue des Arts, 56 eur.cushwake.com +39 02 63799 224 Avenida da Liberdade 131 +34 93 488 1881 Andrew Thomas
Kunstlaan 56 +49 30 20 21 4 46 20 2nd Floor Partner, London Capital Markets
Via F. Turati 16/18 Passeig de Gràcia 56, 7th Floor
1000 Brussels Leipziger Straße 126 20121 Milan 1250-140 Lisbon 08007 Barcelona [email protected]
Belgium 10117 Berlin Italy Portugal Spain +44 20 7152 5181
Germany PJ Thibault
CZECH REPUBLIC ROME RUSSIA MADRID Partner, Head of Business Space
Jiří Fousek HAMBURG Carlo Vanini Irina Ushakova Rupert Lea [email protected]
Partner, Head of Capital Markets Frank Goedecke Partner, Capital Markets Partner, Head of Capital Markets Partner, Capital Markets +44 20 7152 5022
[email protected] Senior Consultant, Capital Markets [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Michael Lindsay
+420 234 603 210 [email protected] +39 06 420079 45 +7 495 799 9872 +34 91 781 3837 Partner Head of EMEA
Na Prikope 1 +49 40 30 088 1114 Ducat Place ||| BC, 6th Floor Corporate Finance
Via Vittorio Veneto 54b Edificio Beatriz
110 00 Prague 1 Bergstraße 16 00187 Rome Gasheka Street, 6 José Ortega y Gasset, 29-6th Floor [email protected]
Czech Republic 20095 Hamburg Italy 125047 Moscow 28006 Madrid +44 20 7152 5008
Hamburg, 20355 Russia Spain 43-45 Portman Square
FRANCE Germany THE NETHERLANDS London, W1A 3BG
Thierry Juteau SLOVAKIA SWEDEN
Mathijs Flierman England
Partner, Head of Capital Markets MUNICH Partner, Head of Capital Markets Andrew Thompson Magnus Lange
[email protected] Thomas Müller [email protected] Partner, CEO Slovakia Partner, CEO Sweden FOR ALL OTHER EMEA
+33 1 53 76 95 51 Partner, Capital Markets +31 20 800 2089 [email protected] [email protected] ENQUIRIES CONTACT:
[email protected] +421 259 209 340 +46 85 456 7714
11-13 Ave de Friedland Atrium building, 3rd Floor Jan-Willem Bastijn
Paris 75008 +49 89 24 214 3333 Pribinova 10 CEO EMEA Capital Markets
Strawinskylaan 3125 Sergels Torg 12
France Maximilianstraße 40 1077 ZX Amsterdam 811 09 Bratislava SE-111 57 Stockholm [email protected]
80539 Munich Netherlands Slovak Republic Sweden +31 20 8002081
GERMANY Germany
FRANKFURT POLAND TURKEY
Frank Nickel HUNGARY Piotr Kaszyński Tuǧra Gönden
Partner Head of Capital Markets Mike Edwards Partner, Head of Capital Markets Partner, Head of Capital Markets
CEO Germany Partner, Head of Capital Markets [email protected] [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected] +48 22 820 2037 +90 212 334 7800
+49 69 50 607 3 111 +36 1 484 1385
James Chapman Inönü Cad. Devres Han No. 50 2/A
Westhafenplatz 6 1052 Budapest Partner, Head of CE Capital Markets Gümüssuyu
60327 Frankfurt am Main Deak Palota [email protected] Istanbul 34437
Germany Deak Ferenc UTCA 15 +48 72 220 2139 Turkey
Budapest
(New address from May 2014 will be Metropolitan
Hungary
Rathenauplatz 1, 60313 Frankfurt) Plac Pilsudskiego 1
00-078 Warsaw
Poland
22
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
MARKETS PROFILES: AMERICAS MARKETS PROFILES: ASIA PACIFIC MARKETS PROFILES: EMEA
23
International Investment Atlas Summary 2014
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