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Li, Yuan; Bolton, Kierstin; Westphal, Theo

Working Paper
The effect of the New Silk Road railways on
aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe

Working Papers on East Asian Studies, No. 109/2016

Provided in Cooperation with:

University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of East Asian Studies IN-EAST

Suggested Citation: Li, Yuan; Bolton, Kierstin; Westphal, Theo (2016) : The effect of the New
Silk Road railways on aggregate trade volumes between China and Europe, Working Papers on
East Asian Studies, No. 109/2016, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of East Asian Studies
(IN-EAST), Duisburg

This Version is available at:

http://hdl.handle.net/10419/142779

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www.econstor.eu
Yuan Li
K iers t i n B o l t o n
no
T h e o W es t p h al
.  10
9
The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways
on Aggregate Trade Volumes
R S
between China and Europe
P E
P A
N G
R KI
W O

W o rki n g P apers
o n E as t A sia n S t u d ies

June 2016
Yuan Li

Corresponding author,
Acting Professor of Business and Economic Studies of East Asia, Institute of East Asian Studies
(IN-EAST), and Mercator School of Management, University of Duisburg-Essen.
W https://www.uni-due.de/in-east/people/li_yuan.php
 E [email protected]

Kierstin Bolton

Graduate Student, Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST), University of Duisburg-Essen.

Theo Westphal

Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST), University of Duisburg-Essen.

Institute of East Asian Studies / Institut für Ostasienwissenschaften

University of Duisburg-Essen
Duisburg Campus, Forsthausweg
47057 Duisburg, Germany
T +49(0) 203 379-4191
F +49(0) 203 379-4157
E [email protected]
ISSN: 1865-8571 (Printed version)  / 1865-858X (Internet version)
Download: www.uni-due.de/in-east/about_in-east/publications/
© by the authors, June 2016
 

Content

1 Introduction 5

2 An Introduction of Railway Connections and Sino-EU Trade 6

2.1 Patterns of Railway Connections between the Involved Countries 6
2.2 China-EU Trade 8

3 The Empirical Model 10

4 Data Collection and Analysis 11

5 Results 12

6 The Yuxinou Railway: Connecting Chongqing and Duisburg by Train 16

7 Conclusion 17

References 18

3
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

Yuan Li / Kierstin Bolton / Theo Westphal

The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

on Aggregate Trade Volumes
between China and Europe
Working Papers on East Asian Studies, No. 109, Duisburg 2016

Abstract
“One Belt, One Road” is an extensive and complex initiative whose potential effect and influence are
still currently pending for answers. This paper addresses the following research question: What is the
effect of the New Silk Road intercontinental railways on the trade between China and its trading part-
ners in Central Asia and Europe? We focus on nine railway lines connecting Europe and China, which
started operations between 2011 and 2015. The countries’ trade patterns with railway connections to
China are then compared to the countries without railway connections to China. We find the interconti-
nental railways have a positive effect on China’s exports to its trading partners in Central Asia and Eu-
rope, especially concerning exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment, and
miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover, the intercontinental railways have a positive effect on
China’s imports of food and live animals from its trading partners.

Keywords
One Belt, One Road; Trade; Transportation cost

JEL Code
F02, F14, R4

4
 1 Introduction

1 Introduction1

In1autumn 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping bodies China’s new opening-up strategies de-
successively proposed the “Silk Road Economic veloped in response to the altered domestic and
Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” international circumstances (Lin 2015). If all the
initiatives that are collectively known as the “One OBOR initiative’s goals are realized, it will sig-
Belt, One Road” Initiative (hereafter referred to nificantly affect China and Europe and will be-
as the “OBOR”). In 2015, with the release of the come a propeller for hinterland development.
“Vision and Actions on Jointly Building ‘One Belt, The extent of its potential effect and influence on
One Road’” (hereafter referred to as the “Vision trade between China and Europe are still pend-
and Actions”), the creation of the Asian Infra- ing for answers. In this paper, we focus on the
structure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the estab- nine Chinese-European trains that are already
lishment of the Silk Road Fund, the “One Belt, in operation, and conduct a pilot study on the ef-
One Road” Initiative has moved on to the stage of fect of these Silk Road railways on the trade be-
implementation. Europe plays an important role tween China and its trading partners in Central
in the OBOR initiative. As stated in the “Vision and Asia and Europe. Of course, the OBOR initiative
Actions”, the OBOR initiative focuses on “con- is a very recent development and most of the
necting the vibrant East Asia economic circle at big projects still have not been carried out. Be-
one end and the developed European economic sides, for the nine railway lines under study, the
circle at the other end”, as an attempt to revive earliest one started to operate in 2011, the lat-
the historical Eurasian “Silk Roads.” In particular, est one started to operate in 2015, and each line
the “belt” is a land route designed to connect Chi- evolves very quickly. It is still too early to draw
na with Central Asia, Eastern and Western Eu- a conclusion regarding the OBOR initiative’s im-
rope. Note that the meaning of connectivity is all pacts at this stage, but a systematic study of the
dimensional and multi-tiered, including policy, nine Chinese-European trains may serve as a
facility, trade, finance and culture (NDRC 2015). starting point in order to evaluate the OBOR ini-
An important component is to construct interna- tiative’s potential effect on trade between China
tional railway transport connections and estab- and ­Europe.
lish new industrial clustering areas along them.
Although using railroads to move goods from
Policy analyses and debates have focused on one place to another is one of the oldest forms of
the OBOR initiative since its introduction. It em- modern trade, the idea and scope behind the New
Silk Road railways are totally new and the po-
tential is huge. In the era of the Internet and glo-
1 We would like to thank Jing Li, Hans-Jörg Schmerer, balization, linking continents by intercontinental
Yun-wing Sung, Markus Taube, Yifan Zhang, the partici- railways might give birth to a real transportation
pants at the First International Joint Seminar on the New revolution. This is because, compared to ocean
Silk Road and Sino-European Cooperation, the Shang- shipping, the intercontinental railways have sig-
hai-Hong Kong Development Institute 2015 Annual Con-
nificantly reduced the time needed; compared to
ference, the First Silk Road Dialogue and 2016 Annual
Conference of the Silk Road Think Tank Association, and air shipping, the intercontinental railways have
a seminar at Nanjing University of Science and Tech- significantly reduced the transportation costs
nology for helpful comments and discussions. Special by 40 percent;2 and, compared to road networks,
thanks to Tobias Fausten, Wenyang Luo, Jiajia Ma, and
Hui Zhu for their contributions to this project, and to the
Duisburger Hafen AG and the Chongqing Social Science 2 Yuxinou Railway serves as the example. The data is from
Academy that allowed us to conduct interviews. All er- the Hong Kong Trade Development Council report (The
rors, of course, remain our own. Hong Kong Trade Development Council 2015).

5
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

railway networks are 50 percent more produc- By utilizing the gravity model, we compare the
tive in promoting international trade (Egger & trade patterns of the countries along the rail-
Larch 2004). Moreover, the investment and im- ways to the countries that have no railway con-
provement of transportation infrastructure can nections to China. We find the New Silk Road
function as a driver for productivity and econom- railways facilitate bilateral trade between China
ic growth as well as prosperity and poverty re- and countries along the railway lines. Railway
duction for the countries and regions along the connection has a positive effect on China’s ex-
“Silk Road Economic Belt”. Note that earlier stud- ports to its trading partners in Central Asia and
ies have found that trade infrastructure is related Europe, especially the export of manufactured
to development, because it improves the exter- goods, machinery and transport equipment, and
nal trade balance (Celbiş et al. 2014), reduces in- miscellaneous manufactured articles. Moreover,
come inequality and poverty (Calderón & Servén railway connection has a positive effect on Chi-
2004; Seneviratne & Sun 2013), and enhances na’s imports of food and live animals from its
economic growth (Brooks 2009). trading partners, although the effect on the total
imports is not significant. In this regard, our find-
Nonetheless, thus far, there is a clear gap in the ing echoes Celbiş’s et al. (2014) conclusion that
literature with regard to research on the rela- infrastructure has a slightly larger impact on ex-
tionship between railway infrastructure and ports than on imports, and supports Egger and
trade. Most research on the relationship be- Larch’s (2004) results on the effects of railway
tween infrastructure and trade has primarily fo- networks on promoting international trade.
cused on the roles played by road and port infra-
structure (Nordas & Piermartini 2004; Hummels The remainder of this article is organized as
2007). Although there are some econometric follows. Section 2 will provide overviews on the
studies researching the effects of railways on railway networks and the history and trend of
trade, these focus primarily on country-specif- trade between Europe and China. Section 3 will
ic developments and do not review the effect of explain the theoretical approach and the empir-
railway infrastructure connecting various dif- ical model. Section 4 elaborates in further detail
ferent countries and regions on trade (Donald- upon the independent and dependent variables
son 2012; Donaldson and Hornbeck 2013). This and the data. Section 5 contains the multiple re-
gap is largely due to the earlier absence of such gression analysis, revealing several patterns in
cross-country large-scale projects. The identi- trade between China and the selected countries.
fication of this clear gap in the infrastructure/ Section 6 illustrates our findings by using a case
trade literature propels us to use the OBOR ini- study on the “Chongqing-Xinjiang-Duisburg” car-
tiative as a means to investigate the further im- go rail route (known as the “Yuxinou” railway).
plications of railway infrastructure for trade. The final section illustrates our conclusions.

2 An Introduction of Railway Connections

and Sino-EU Trade

2.1 Patterns of Railway Connec- na to Europe started to operate. The first one,
tions between the Involved Yuxinou, started operating in 2011, and serves
Countries as a case study toward the end of this paper in
Section 6. The railway lines connect many Asian
From 2011 to 2015, many new railway lines and European countries with China. Poland, the
(presently nine in total) that directly connect Chi- Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Russia, and Uz-

6
 2 An Introduction of Railway Connections and Sino-EU Trade

bekistan serve as the final destinations of these day. Export companies welcome the fixed sched-
railway lines. ule, as it enhances the convenience for them to
arrange production activities (Yang 2015). As for
Yuxinou, the pioneer among the new direct rail- the cargo, Rongou mostly transports electronic
way connections between Europe and China, products, machinery, auto parts, and clothing.
sets out from Chongqing and reaches its final
destination in Duisburg. As Chongqing is the The Zhengou Railway starts from Zhengzhou
largest production base of laptop computers in and reaches its final destination in Hamburg.
the world, these items usually account for al- With this railway, Chinese products in Henan
most half of the cargo (Deng 2015). In addition, Province will not need to be first transported to
Yuxinou operates according to a fixed timetable, Qingdao and then by sea. Instead, they can be
which makes it more convenient for firms to ship shipped directly to Europe.
their products.
Hexinou starts from Hefei and began to operate
Hanxinou starts from Wuhan, and at the end in June 2014. However, at that time it only trans-
reaches the Czech Republic. In addition to Fox- ported products to Kazakhstan. Later, Hexinou’s
conn products, it is also responsible for trans- operations extended to Russia and in June 2015
porting cars and building materials. In addition, reached Germany in Hamburg. From Hefei to
Hanxinou started to transport some cargo when Hamburg it takes about 15 days and the distance
it returns to China from Europe. Once every two is about 11,000 km. Cargoes mainly include
weeks Hanxinou takes automobile parts back to electronic and household appliances, textiles
China (Xinhuanet 2014). etc. (Yin 2015).

Suzhou is the beginning point of the Sumanou Xiangou’s shipments began in October 2014.
Railway, which passes through Russia, Belar- Currently Xiangou transports items through
us, and finally arrives in Warsaw, Poland. Fol- three routes. One starts in Changsha, continues
lowing its first operation in November 2012, through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Po-
the distance was listed in the Guinness World land before arriving in Duisburg, Germany. The
Records as the longest transportation distance other two routes end in Moscow, Russia and
of container railways (He 2012). Before Suma- Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Tea, porcelain, and auto-
nou, there was no direct railway connection with mobile parts are examples of the types of prod-
Europe in Southeastern China. The cargo of the ucts currently transported on the Xiangou rail
train mainly contains products made in Suzhou line (Zhang 2014).
including electronic products, machinery, cloth-
ing and household items etc. In November 2014, Yixinou started operations
from Yiwu to Spain. Yixinou has by far the lon-
The Rongou Railway also reaches Poland, but gest transportation distance among all these
originates in Chengdu. Since April 2013, Ron- railways between Europe and China. As Yiwu is
gou’s speed continues increasing. At the begin- a city famous for its small commodities, the train
ning, the transportation time was about 14 days usually carries miscellaneous goods to Spain.
but now it only takes about 10 and a half days. It transports Spanish products, including wine,
The highlight of Rongou is that it operates with a olive oil, and cured ham back to China as well
fixed time schedule. Many other trains between (Liu 2015). As the train only started operating in
Europe and China actually have no fixed running late 2014, the newly connected countries of the
time. Railway operators typically wait until the Ukraine, France and Spain are not considered in
trains are filled up before setting off for the final the present study. They should, however, form
destinations. Rongou, however, runs every Satur- part of future research on the OBOR initiative.

7
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

Haou, the most recently incorporated railway Japan, South Korea, and northern China. As the
line connecting China with Europe, began op- transportation time through Haou is 15 days, it
erations in June 2015. It runs from Harbin and is quite convenient for companies to ship their
reaches its final destination in Hamburg. The products through this railway because it di-
first shipments included clothing, electronic minishes the transportation time by 50 percent
components, and automobile parts. Currently (Egorova 2015). Table 1 gives a summary of all
product shipments from Harbin originate from the nine rail ways.

Table 1: China-EU Railway Lines

Route Distance Duration Start Frequency
Yuxinou Chongqing–Duisburg 11,179 km 16 days July 2011 3 / week
Hanxinou Wuhan–Mělník (CZ)/Pardubice (CZ)/ 10,863 km 16 days Oct. 2012 2–3 / week
Turkmenistan
Sumanou Suzhou–Warsaw 11,200 km 18 days Nov. 2012 6–8 / week
Rongou Chengdu– Łódź 9,826 km 10.5 days April 2013 1 / week
Zhengou Zhengzhou–Hamburg 10,214 km 19–20 days July 2013 1 / week
Yixinou Yiwu–Madrid 13,052 km 21 days Nov. 2014 3x until now
Hexinou Hefei–Germany 11,000 km 15 days June 2014 2 / month
Xiangou Changsha–Duisburg/Moscow/Tashkent 11,808 km 18 days Oct. 2014 Every 10 days
Haou Harbin–Hamburg 9,820 km 15 days June 2015 1 / week
The data for the China-EU railway lines was collected in August 2015

2.2 China-EU Trade increased from China by the year 2014. Com-
pared to the total imports from China for all
Although this paper focuses on China’s trade with EU-25 countries of $ 442 billion, China's top six
not only the EU-25 countries, but also its trade EU trading partners generated three quarters of
with Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan, the EU as import revenues.
an entity is becoming an increasingly significant
trading partner of China. The rail networks con- Figure 2 reveals that EU exports to China in-
necting China with Europe are enhancing their creased by a significantly large amount in 2014
trade relations. In recent years, Chinese and Eu- as compared to 2005. Concerning China’s im-
ropean diplomatic and trade relations have quick- ports from the EU-25 countries, its top six trad-
ly progressed, demonstrating a greater need for ing partners in 2014 were Germany, Belgium, the
faster, cheaper and more effective trade routes United Kingdom, The Netherlands, France, and
compared to the maritime shipping options pri- Italy. Their total exports to China, which amount-
marily in use today. Today China is the EU’s sec- ed to $ 181 billion in 2014, constituted about
ond largest trading partner, behind the United 55 percent of total EU exports to China, which
States (The European Commission 2015), and equalled $ 214 billion.
since 2004, the EU has remained China’s largest
trading partner (Xin 2013). Between 2003 and Figure 3 shows that there are clear rising trends of
2012, the trade volume between China and the EU the imports from China for Germany, Poland and
quadrupled from 125.22 billion USD to 546.04 bil- the Czech Republic, which are the EU countries
lion USD (ibid.). As an entity, the EU itself conducts that have been connected by rail. Although it can-
significant amounts of trade with China. not be concluded directly from these graphs that
the recent increase in imports is due to the New
Figure 1 demonstrates that for almost all 25 EU Silk Road railways, they can be used as a reference
countries, compared to 2005, imports strongly for the general development of Sino-EU trade.

8
 2 An Introduction of Railway Connections and Sino-EU Trade

Figure 1: EU-25 countries’ imports from China

Data source: WITS database

Figure 2: EU-25 countries’ exports to China

Data source: WITS database

9
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

Figure 3: Development of imports from China to The basic form of the gravity model for two
­Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland economies labelled i and j can be described by
the following equation:

Yi Yj
Ti j = H (1)
di 2j

According to the gravity model, exports from coun-

try i to country j are explained by their economic
sizes (Yi and Yj ), their direct geographical distances
and a set of other variables, such as tariffs and
­geography (all these can be captured by di j).

For example, whether or not the country has a

connection to the sea is considered to be one sig-
nificant variable. Therefore, economic size and
the geographical distance between countries are
especially highlighted. Studies have revealed that
the distance is particularly important: roughly
one quarter of world trade by value occurs be-
tween countries that share a land border and
half of world trade occurs between partners less
than 3000 kilometres apart (Berthelon & Freund
2004). Until quite recently, for trade with distant
partners, nearly all merchandise trade moved via
ocean and air modes (Hummels 2007).This also
points to the innovation and creativity behind the
New Silk Road by rail, because it is completely
new in its integrated approach to connect China
and Europe through railway networks. The grav-
ity model’s insights – especially its assumption
that projects like the OBOR project may increase
the flow of goods through the reduction of trans-
port costs – are useful for our project.
Data source: WITS database

The following empirical model is used to esti-

mate the effect of the new Silk Road interconti-
nental railways on trade between China and its
3 The Empirical Model partners.

yi t = β railconi t + γ Xi t + εi t (2)

One of the most critically acclaimed approach-
es to the study of trade relations is the gravity In equation (2), yi t is the dependent variable,
model. Since the 1960s, it has become a popular which includes import and export data of China
instrument in empirical foreign trade analysis and various other countries. The main explana-
(Kepaptsoglou et al. 2010). The model stresses tory variable on the right hand side, railconi t, is
that trade increases with the size and proximity defined as a dummy variable indicating the sta-
of the trading partners (Porojan 2001). tus of rail connection to China. We also include

10
 4 Data Collection and Analysis

a set of control variables: Xi t, which can affect Hypothesis 1:

trade with China. The control variables include: Railway connection will increase the connected
the weighted tariff average, distance, landlocked, country’s imports from China.
GDP and official exchange rate.
Hypothesis 2:
Moreover, β is the coefficient of railway connec- Railway connection will increase the connected
tion; it should have a positive sign if the hypo­ country’s exports to China.
thesis holds. The main hypotheses are as follows:

4 Data Collection and Analysis

We collected a panel data with 28 countries from China to various other countries). Gross exports
the years 2005 to 2014 in order to observe the and imports were collected from the WITS data-
growth or decline of trade volumes in this ten- set, because they include both net exports and
year time span. This allows us to discern a rea- re-imports in the export data, and net-imports
sonable time frame before and after the railway and re-exports in the import data. In short, the
connections started operations. gross figures cover the whole movement of
goods, without subtracting re-exports or re-im-
The number of EU countries in this study was ports from the raw figures. As the effect of the
narrowed down to 25 instead of all the 28 mem- railways on the movement of goods across bor-
bers. Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania are exclud- ders is the object of the present study, gross ex-
ed because these three countries joined the ports and imports are chosen as the main de-
EU after 2007. In the meantime, three non-EU pendent variables.
countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Russian
Federation) were added to our dataset. From the The weighted tariff average can reflect the av-
nine railways we observed, all of them have a erage tariff numeric more realistically than the
connection with Belarus and the Russian Feder- simple average tariff. The simple tariff average
ation, and six of them have a connection with Ka- merely calculates the sum of all tariff rates di-
zakhstan. Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Russian vided by the quantity of the rates. This regulation
Federation serve as important passing stations mixes all the products together and ignores the
on the railway lines. We think the ‘One Belt, One difference that some products are less or much
Road’ project will have a large impact on these more imported or exported than others. The
three countries’ economies and trade as well. weighted tariff average, however, measures the
differences in imports and exports.
The trade volume data are subdivided into the
ten SITC categories. We chose the SITC Revision Google Maps was utilized to measure the direct
3 nomenclature because in the WITS databank, distance between the 28 countries’ capitals and
the latest revision of SITC Revision 4 is only Beijing. Landlocked countries are assigned a “1”
available for a very limited number of years. In (no access to the sea) and “0” represents the
order to achieve uniformity in our dataset, we countries not landlocked. With Google Maps, it is
collected the data of trade flows listed by SITC possible to observe whether a country is land-
Revision 3. locked or not. We decided to collect this data
because the geography of a country may have a
This trade data was collected for exports (from large impact on its international trade. The Cas-
various countries to China) and imports (from pian Sea was judged to not have an influence on

11
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

international trade, which is why Kazakhstan is In the export data, missing values occurred for
recorded as landlocked. small countries, which export very insignificant
quantities of the respective categories to Chi-
As for the railway connection, we use “1” to rep- na in some years and probably close to noth-
resent the existence of a railway connection be- ing in other years. In this case we assume that
tween China and the partner country for a cer- the missing values are actually equal to zero
tain year. Before the year in which the railway and changed the data accordingly. In the import
started operation, “0” represents the absence of data, the missing value for Finland, SITC 9 for
a railway connection. For example, in the case of 2011, was replaced by the average of the values
Germany we have “0” for 6 years (from 2005 to from 2010 and 2012. This is because the values
2010) and “1” for 4 years (from 2011 to 2014). around the year 2011 suggest that the value
cannot be expected to be equal to zero. The av-
GDP data was collected for China and for all the erage of the year before and after the missing
other countries included in the study. It was col- value provides an educated guess as to the real
lected from the IMF World Economic Outlook da- trade volume for 2011. Regarding the rest of the
tabase. Official exchange rate data was collect- import data, the assumption that missing val-
ed from the World Bank. The official exchange ues are equal to zero was found to be accurate.
rate as Chinese Yuan to US Dollar and Chinese The observation of Russian imports and exports
Yuan to Euro is maintained. If the exchange rate in the year 2014 was excluded from the analy-
of Chinese Yuan to US Dollar or Chinese Yuan sis altogether, as all trade figures are missing.
to Euro increases, it means that 1 Yuan can buy Missing tariff values in the export data were
less of the other currency, corresponding to a replaced by the average of all available tariff
depreciation of the Yuan. We hypothesize that a values for the respective exporting country. Un-
depreciation of the Yuan may have a positive ef- like the tariffs imposed by the Chinese side, the
fect on Chinese exports, as the prices for com- tariffs imposed by the other countries against
modities in Yuan are falling for foreign buyers, Chinese products show a clear downward trend
who change Euros or Dollars to Yuan. Similarly, over time. Therefore, the missing tariff values in
an appreciation of the Yuan may have a negative the import data were replaced by the tariff val-
effect on Chinese exports. ue of the year before, assuming that the tariff in
year t is closely related to the tariff in year t − 1.
Although we attempted to collect data as intact The total trade volume per country and year was
as possible, some data still contained missing computed by summing the values of all 10 SITC
values, such as in the weighted tariff averages. categories.

5 Results

In this section, the results of the regression anal- control for country-specific and year-specific ef-
ysis are presented. Coefficients at a significance fects. We also take into account the data clusters
level of p = 0.01 are considered to be significant when estimating the standard errors.
effects. The regression analysis is performed first
on the export data (exports from various coun- In the first regression test, the effect of the pre-
tries to China) and then on the import data (im- dictor variables on the log transformation of the
ports from China to various countries). All regres- total exports was investigated. Strikingly, wheth-
sion analyses presented here include the country er the respective country has a rail connection to
dummy and the year dummy, which serves to China or not had no significant effect on the de-

12
 5 Results

pendent variable. According to our expectations, from China was conducted. In this case, the rail
significant negative effects on exports were ob- connection variable was found to have a signif-
served for distance, the landlocked variable and icant positive effect. The coefficient observed is
the Yuan to Dollar exchange rate. Though the hy- 0.279. This means that a country which is con-
pothesis that the rail connection has a signifi- nected to China by one of the OBOR railways im-
cant effect on exports cannot be verified here, ports on average 27.9 percent more commodi-
the high R value (R2 = 0.98) demonstrates that ties from China than a country which is not con-
the regression model used here has a high pre- nected (see Table 4). Significant negative coeffi-
dictive validity (see Table 2). cients were observed for the Yuan to Dollar ex-
change rate and the landlocked variable. An ad-
In a further regression analysis of the export of ditional significant positive effect was observed
all individual SITC categories, a positive signifi- for the Yuan to Dollar exchange rate. Contrary to
cant effect was found only for category 0 (food our expectations, slightly positive and significant
and animals). Here, the exports increased on av- effects were observed for the tariff and distance
erage by 100.6 percent for the countries that are variables.
connected by rail (see Table 3). This effect is very
large and is given further attention in the discus- The significant results for the total import data
sion section. warrant a further analysis of import figures of
selected SITC categories. Categories for which
Next, a regression model to investigate the ef- the trade by train between China and the oth-
fects on the log transformation of total imports er countries can be expected to be especially

Table 2: Regression on logtrade (exports) Table 3: Regression on log SITC 0 (exports)

Predictor logtrade (export) logtrade (export) Predictor logsitc0 (exports) logsitc0 (exports)
No year /w year No Year /w Year
Railway 0.043 0.064 Railway 1.006 1.031
­connection (0.138) (0.144) ­connection (0.366)* (0.387)*
Tariff 0.003 0.000 Tariff −0.029 −0.031
(0.051) (0.050) (0.095) (0.097)
Distance −0.000 −0.000 Distance 0.000 0.000
(0.000)** (0.000)** (0.000)** (0.000)**
Exchange rate −0.314 −0.164 Exchange rate 0.249 0.393
(Yuan–USD)  (0.108)** (0.098) (Yuan–USD) (0.218) (0.405)
Exchange rate −0.019 0.004 Exchange rate 0.257 0.278
(Yuan–Euro) (0.051) (0.049) (Yuan–Euro) (0.310) (0.279)
Landlocked −1.563 −1.588 Landlocked −4.738 −4.768
(0.292)** (0.297)** (0.860)** (0.850)**
GDP 0.000 0.000 GDP −0.000 −0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Chinese GDP 0.000 −0.000 Chinese GDP 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)** (0.000)
Constant 13.521 −291.104 Constant −2.477 −299.269
(1.293)** (137.653)* (4.034) (679.289)
Year dummy No Yes Year dummy No Yes
Country dummy Yes Yes Country dummy Yes Yes
2 2
R 0.98 0.98 R 0.91 0.91
N 279 279 N 270 270
Robust standard errors controlling for clusters in paren­ Robust standard errors controlling for clusters in paren­
theses; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01 theses; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01

13
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

Table 4: Table 5: Regression on the imports of selected SITC categories (SITC 5:

Regression on logtrade (imports) machinery and transport equipment including electrical appliances like
Predictor logtrade (imports) logtrade (imports) Predictor logsitc5 (imports) logsitc6 (imports)
No year /w year No year No year
Railway 0.279 0.291 Railway ­connection 0.027 0.254
­connection (0.064)** (0.065)** (0.059) (0.094)**
Tariff 0.086 0.081 Tariff 0.061 0.095
(0.010)** (0.012)** (0.011)** (0.013)**
Distance 0.000 0.000 Distance 0.000 −0.000
(0.000)** (0.000)** (0.000) (0.000)**
Exchange rate −0.604 −0.549 Exchange rate (Yuan–USD)  −0.478 −0.582
(Yuan–USD)  (0.071)** (0.063)** (0.068)** (0.072)**
Exchange rate 0.230 0.234 Exchange rate (Yuan–Euro) 0.193 0.422
(Yuan–Euro) (0.040)** (0.039)** (0.036)** (0.056)**
Landlocked −0.978 −1.022 Landlocked −1.301 −0.660
(0.453)* (0.445)* (0.354)** (0.429)
GDP 0.000 0.000 GDP 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Chinese GDP 0.000 −0.000 Chinese GDP 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000)** (0.000)
Constant 9.847 −95.173 Constant 7.402 6.789
(1.040)** (100.353) (0.855)** (1.136)**
Year dummy No Yes Year dummy No No
Country dummy Yes Yes Country dummy Yes Yes
R2 0.98 0.98 R2 0.99 0.98
N 279 279 N 279 279
Robust standard errors controlling for clusters in paren­ Robust standard errors controlling for clusters in paren­theses; * p < 0.05; ** p <
theses; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01

significant are SITC 5 (chemicals and related age 27.9 percent larger for countries with an
products), SITC 6 (manufactured goods) and OBOR train connection. Contrary to our expec­
SITC 7 (machinery and transport equipment). tations, the effects observed here are not larg­
Category 7 also covers electrical appliances er than the effect of rail connection on the over­
such as laptops, which are partly transported all imports (see above). Therefore, we cannot
from Chinese production hubs such as Chong­ say that the goods in categories 6 and 7 play a
qing to European markets via the new OBOR special role in the transport of goods by OBOR
train routes. trains. Their imports to countries connected by
train expands by about the same proportion as
No significant effect of the rail connection was general imports.
found for category 5 (see Table 5). Imports of
Chinese chemicals and related products do not In a further test of the other SITC categories, the
seem to be significantly influenced by the exis­ imports of category 8 (miscellaneous manufac­
tence of the railways considered here. However, tured articles) were found to benefit the most
for categories 6 and 7, the effect of rail connec­ from the railway connection. A highly significant
tion was significant and positive. The import of coefficient of railway connection = 0.359 was
Chinese manufactured goods was on average found (see Table 6). This means that the imports
25.4 percent larger for countries with an OBOR of category 8 from China can be expected to ex­
train connection and the import of Chinese ma­ pand on average by 35.9 percent for countries,
chinery and transport equipment was on aver­ which are connected by railway.

14
 5 Results

chemicals and related products; SITC 6: manufactured goods; SITC 7: Table 6:

laptops) Regression on log SITC 8 (imports)

logsitc7 (imports) logsitc5 (imports) logsitc6 (imports) logsitc7 (imports) Predictor logsitc8 (imports) logsitc8 (imports)

No year /w year /w year /w year No year /w year
0.279 0.021 0.265 0.292 Railway 0.359 0.358
(0.079)** (0.061) (0.094)** (0.080)** ­connection (0.124)** (0.128)**
0.082 0.064 0.089 0.076 Tariff 0.094 0.095
(0.018)** (0.013)** (0.014)** (0.018)** (0.013)** (0.014)**
0.000 0.000 −0.000 0.000 Distance 0.000 0.000
(0.000)** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)** (0.000)** (0.000)**
−0.624 −0.507 −0.529 −0.562 Exchange rate −0.658 −0.665
(0.104)** (0.068)** (0.099)** (0.083)** (Yuan–USD)  (0.082)** (0.120)**
0.161 0.191 0.426 0.166 Exchange rate 0.190 0.189
(0.052)** (0.038)** (0.057)** (0.051)** (Yuan–Euro) (0.056)** (0.057)**
−1.119 −1.277 −0.702 −1.169 Landlocked −0.993 −0.987
(0.504)* (0.341)** (0.407) (0.504)* (0.496)* (0.476)*
0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 GDP 0.000 0.000
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
−0.000 0.000 0.000 −0.000 Chinese GDP −0.000 −0.000
(0.000) (0.000)* (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
10.219 63.149 −93.278 −108.590 Constant 7.668 21.858
(1.506)** (97.101) (104.332) (129.486) (1.418)** (132.984)
No Yes Yes Yes Year dummy No Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Country dummy Yes Yes
2
0.97 0.99 0.98 0.97 R 0.98 0.98
279 279 279 279 N 279 279
0.01 Robust standard errors controlling for clusters in paren­
theses; * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01

Discussion of the Results derstood as a semi-natural experiment, where

The results presented here should be interpret­ the establishment of a rail connection between
ed with caution, because there are various con­ some countries and China is seen as the main
siderable limitations to the present study. First independent factor, which explains the outcome
of all, the OBOR initiative is a very young project variables (trade figures). This study design can­
and the railways investigated here have only op­ not be expected to have the same statistical
erated for a few years. Therefore, there are some validity and absence of bias as a fully random­
serious restrictions in the availability of relevant ized experiment. Lastly, there is a small chance
data. Its main contribution to the young literature that the effects of the rail connections observed
on OBOR is the identification of a statistically sig­ here are caused by some confounding variable.
nificant positive effect of the railway infrastruc­ Although all possible efforts to include the rele­
ture expansion on the trade of several categories vant control variables in the study were made, it
of goods, which is in line with the assumptions is possible that the rail connections themselves
of the gravity model and other reviewed studies. are caused by certain political, geographical, or
other country-specific factors which also explain
Secondly, the countries included in this study the effects on trade, and which were not con­
are not a random sample but rather a conve­ trolled for. Nevertheless, we think that the pres­
nience sample, including the countries, which ent study is statistically and logically sound, and
were connected by railway and the EU-25 coun­ that the results can be used as approximations
tries as a control group. The study can be un­ of the true effects of the railways.

15
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

A striking result of our analysis was that there is tween China and its trading partners which are
no significant effect of the railway connections connected by rail. The analysis of individual
on the overall exports to China. This result may SITC categories showed that the import of lap-
be explained by the fact that up to now many of tops and other electrical appliances does not in-
the OBOR trains carry goods from China to other crease more than general imports do as a result
markets, but return to China empty or with little of the railways. Rather, the import of miscella-
cargo on board. In the long term, it can be ex- neous manufactured articles (SITC 8) profits the
pected that the trains’ capacities will be more most from the railway initiative.
extensively used to export products to China. If
this is the case, future replications of this study Therefore, by and large, the results seem to align
should deliver a significant result for the export with the core assumptions of the studies, which
data. The only significant effect found for the ex- have been reviewed above. The general consen-
port data was a 100 percent increase of exports sus of studies focusing on infrastructure’s im-
of food and animals to China. The possibility pact on trade is that the revealed impact is pos-
that the short travel time of the intercontinental itive. The main idea behind these studies is that
trains enables the export of perishable goods lower transportation costs triggered by the ex-
from European producers to Chinese markets pansion in infrastructure have a positive impact
should be considered as an explanation for this on imports as well as exports. In this regard, as
effect. mentioned and discussed above, our study is in
line with the study by Celbiş et al. (2014). Future
A significant positive effect of the rail connec­ studies on this topic can build on the applied
tions on the import of Chinese goods was found. methodological and theoretical basis forwarded
Therefore, our initial hypothesis can be con- in this paper in order to develop these further
firmed. The new rail connections of the OBOR and find the real effects of one of the most ambi-
initiative have a positive effect on the trade be- tious infrastructure projects of our time.

6 The Yuxinou Railway:

Connecting Chongqing and Duisburg by Train 3

Yuxinou3was the first railway line to be promoted system along the railway network. If transport-
in the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative and started ed by sea from Chongqing to Europe, cargoes
operating on January 28, 2011. It sets out from will first need to be shipped from Chongqing to
Chongqing and passes through Kazakhstan, Shanghai via the Yangtze River, and then carried
Russia, Belarus, Poland, and finally reaches Ger- over by sea from Shanghai to Europe. Yuxinou
many in Duisburg. In March 2014, China’s presi- has reduced the transportation time on land to
dent, Xi Jinping, visited Duisburg where he wit- only two weeks (13 days) versus one and a half
nessed the arrival of a cargo train at the railway months by sea. Currently, every week there are
station in Duisburg from Chongqing. This railway four to five trains that leave Chongqing bound
has significantly lowered the transportation for Europe and three to four trains that return to
time between Europe and China. This is in part Chongqing. By 2013, the transportation expense
due to the highly efficient customs clearance was lowered to 0.6 USD for one carriage per ki-
lometre (Zhong 2015). This price is similar to the
price by sea transport but the shipping time is
3 This section draws on interviews that the authors con- much shorter, enabling the railway to be com-
ducted in Chongqing and Duisburg in 2015 and 2016. petitive to sea transport.

16
 7 Conclusion

To be sure, the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative only rope, but also as a distribution centre that can
just started a few years ago and there is still a link Europe and China. Taking exchanges from
very long way to go for railway transportation to Europe to China as an example, this means that
grow in importance as compared to the world’s goods from Western European countries, such
dominating mode of transportation, ocean ship- as Spain, France, Belgium or the Netherlands,
ping, which accounts for 95 percent of total ship- arrive in Duisburg where they are consigned and
ping. However, available data suggests that there loaded onto one of the Yuxinou railway trains
is a clear trend of Yuxinou’s growing importance: by Duisport, a German logistics company. From
Until the end of 2015, Yuxinou operated 453 times, Duisburg, these goods then are transferred to
including 347 times from China to Europe and 106 Małaszewicze in Poland or Brest in Belarus
times from Europe to China. That 220 of these ex- where the trains are placed onto other tracks to
changes took place in 2015 alone illustrates the fit the broader gauge size of former Soviet coun-
railways’ increasingly growing importance. tries, i.e. Russia and Kazakhstan. This procedure
takes between one and two days. Afterwards,
The ‘One Belt, One Road’ Initiative’s biggest ad- the goods proceed on their journey to China, e.g.
vantage in general and the Yuxinou railway in to Chongqing.
particular, is that it makes it possible to connect
China and Europe in a quick and inexpensive way. The “Yuxinou” railway is expected to have posi-
It is a middle ground approach between deep sea tive effect on local employment. Around 300 lo-
transportation and air shipping, because it mixes gistics oriented companies are based in the port
ocean shipping’s advantage of low costs with air of Duisburg. In total over 20,000 jobs in Duisburg
shipping’s advantage of rapidity of transportation. depend on the port. The railway connection also
Yuxinou heavily reduces ocean shipping’s trans- increases Duisburg’s fame in China. Following
portation time (by 20 days) and also decreases the new railway line’s operation, and especial-
the high price of air shipping (by 80 percent). Yux- ly after Xi Jinping’s official visit to Duisburg in
inou is operated by the YuXinOu Logistics Compa- 2014, many Chinese local governments desire to
ny Ltd., a joint venture between Russian, Chinese, cooperate with Duisburg. In 2014, Nanjing High
Kazakh, and German railway companies. This Accurate Drive Equipment Manufacturing, a Chi-
multinational cooperation ensures that the goods nese company, established its European head-
exchanges are smooth and unimpeded by imper- quarters in Duisburg due to the railways’ oper-
fect knowledge of foreign circumstances. ations. It can be expected that in the future Duis-
burg and its nearby region will attract more and
Duisburg does not only act as the nominal start- more Chinese companies and also an increasing
ing and end point of the Yuxinou railway in Eu- number of Chinese tourists.

7 Conclusion

Trade relations between China, Central Asia and railways offer a competitive and faster alterna-
Europe have existed for centuries. The ‘One Belt tive to the transport of goods via sea routes, and
One Road’ initiative aims at deepening this his- may increase the intensity of international trade
torical relationship by improving infrastructural through a reduction of transport costs.
and organizational capabilities along the Belt
and Road. One of this initiative’s crucial elements We investigate this assumption by means of a
is the establishment of intercontinental railways, multiple regression analysis. The results dem­
which directly connect China with Europe. These onstrate that the railways increase the intensi-

17
 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

ty of trade between China and its trading part- ‘One Belt, One Road’ is a project in its infancy and
ners along the ‘New Silk Road.’ This holds true so is the research on its effects. This study was
for the import of Chinese products, but only to an attempt at bringing together the necessary
a very limited extent for the export of Europe- data and methodological tools to arrive at a pre-
an and Central Asian products to China. Due to liminary conclusion about the project’s railway
the limitations outlined above, this result should initiative. As significant results were achieved,
be interpreted with caution, but it can be used further, more elaborate studies on the matter are
as an indication towards the true effects of the warranted and needed. Future research should
railways. If trade flourishes, countries can pro- expand on the ideas developed here, adding on
duce according to their comparative advantag- the amount of data collected and the statistical
es, which lead to win-win situations. Therefore, methods used. As the OBOR project matures,
the proliferation of profitable trade is a common studies should be able to find more distinct re-
goal of many countries. The railways investigat- sults. It might be worthwhile to carry out a longi-
ed here are a significant factor in achieving this tudinal follow-up to this study, to investigate the
goal. project’s effects and profitability over time.

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the EU, Exemplified with Respect to E-Mobility Rolle in den internationalen Beziehungen – globale Heraus-
forderungen und die chinesische Außenpolitik
No. 97 / 2014 Anja Senz, Dieter Reinhardt (Eds.): Task
Force: Connecting India, China and Southeast Asia – New No. 81 / 2009 Flemming Christiansen, Heather Xiaoquan
Socio-Economic Developments Zhang: The Political Economy of Rural Development in China:
Reflections on Current Rural Policy
No. 96 / 2014 Markus Taube: Grundzüge der wirtschaft­
lichen Entwicklung und ihre ordnungspolitischen Leitbilder No. 80 / 2009 Chan-Mi Strüber: Germany’s Role in the
in der VR China seit 1949 Foreign Direct Investment Configuration of Korean Multi­
national Enterprises in Europe
No. 95 / 2013 Yasuo Saeki, Sven Horak: The Role of Trust
in Cultivating Relation-specific Skills – The Case of a Multi- No. 79 / 2009 Thomas Heberer, Anja-D. Senz (Hg.): Task
national Automotive Supplier in Japan and Germany Force: Entwicklungspolitik und -strategien in Ostasien am
Beispiel der chinesischen Umweltpolitik
No. 94 / 2013 Heather Xiaoquan Zhang, Nicholas Loubere:
Rural Finance, Development and Livelihoods in China No. 78 / 2008 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz: How are
Markets Created? The Case of Japan’s Silver Market
No. 93 / 2013 Thomas Heberer, Anja Senz (Hg.): Task Force:
Wie lässt sich die Zusammenarbeit des Landes Nordrhein- No. 77 / 2008 Werner Pascha, Uwe Holtschneider (Hg.):
Westfalen mit China und den NRW-Partnerprovinzen ver­ Task Force: Corporate Social Responsibility in Japan und
tiefen? Österreich

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 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

No. 76 / 2008 Yu Keping: China’s Governance Reform from No. 59 / 2004 Li Fan: Come by the Wind. Li Fan’s Story in
1978 to 2008 Buyun Election

No. 75 / 2008 Thomas Heberer: Task Force: Entwicklungs- No. 58 / 2004 Li Minghuan: Labour Brokerage in China
politik in China: Herausforderungen, Lösungsstrategien und ­Today: Formal and Informal Dimensions
deutsch-chinesische Entwicklungszusammenarbeit
No. 57 / 2004 Dorit Lehrack: NGO im heutigen China –
No. 74 / 2008 Markus Taube: Ökonomische Entwicklung in ­Aufgaben, Rolle und Selbstverständnis
der VR China. Nachholendes Wachstum im Zeichen der Glo-
balisierung No. 56 / 2004 Anja Senz: Wählen zwischen Recht und
Pflicht – Ergebnisse einer Exkursion der Ostasienwissen-
No. 73 / 2007 Norifumi Kawai, Manja Jonas: Ownership schaften in die Provinz Sichuan / VR China
Strategies in Post-Financial Crisis South-East Asia: The
Case of Japanese Firms No. 55 / 2004 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz: Workshop
Organisation und Ordnung der japanischen Wirtschaft IV.
No. 72 / 2007 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz, Markus Themenschwerpunkt: Wahrnehmung, Institutionenökonomik
Taube (Eds.): Workshop Series on the Role of Institutions in und Japanstudien
East Asian Development – Institutional Foundations of Inno-
vation and Competitiveness in East Asia No. 54 / 2004 Thomas Heberer: Ethnic Entrepreneurs as
Agents of Social Change. Entrepreneurs, clans, social obli-
No. 71 / 2006 Norifumi Kawai: Spatial Determinants of gations and ethnic resources: the case of the Liangshan Yi
Japanese Manufacturing Firms in the Czech Republic in Sichuan

No. 70 / 2006 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz (Hg.): Work- No. 53 / 2003 Hermann Halbeisen: Taiwan’s Domestic
shop Institutionen in der Entwicklung Ostasiens I – Offen- Politics since the Presidential Elections 2000
heit und Geschlossenheit asiatischer Wirtschaftssysteme
No. 52 / 2003 Claudia Derichs, Wolfram Schaffar (Hg.):
No. 69 / 2006 Christian Göbel: The Peasant’s Rescue from
Task Force: Interessen, Machstrukturen und internationale
the Cadre? An Institutional Analysis of China’s Rural Tax and
Regime. Die WTO-Verhandlungen zum GATS (Dienstleis-
Fee Reform
tungsabkommen) und sein Einfluss auf Asien
No. 68 / 2006 Thomas Heberer: Institutional Change
No. 51 / 2003 Markus Taube: Chinas Rückkehr in die Welt-
and Legitimacy via Urban Elections? People’s Awareness
gemeinschaft. Triebkräfte und Widerstände auf dem Weg zu
of Elections and Participation in Urban Neighbourhoods
einem „Global Player“
(Shequ)
No. 50 / 2003 Kotaro Oshige: Arbeitsmarktstruktur und
No. 67 / 2006 Momoyo Hüstebeck: Tanaka Makiko: Scharf-
industrielle Beziehungen in Japan. Eine Bestandsaufnahme
züngige Populistin oder populäre Reformerin?
mit Thesen zur Zukunftsentwicklung
No. 66 / 2006 Momoyo Hüstebeck: Park Geun-hye: Als Prä-
No. 49 / 2003 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz (Hg.): Work-
sidententochter zur ersten Staatspräsidentin Südkoreas?
shop Organisation und Ordnung der japanischen Wirtschaft
No. 65 / 2006 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz (Hg.): Work- III. Themenschwerpunkt: Institutionenökonomik und Japan-
shop Organisation und Ordnung der japanischen Wirtschaft studien
V. Themenschwerpunkt: Deutschlandjahr in Japan – eine
Zwischenbilanz No. 48 / 2003 Institute of East Asian Studies (Ed.), Frank
Robaschik (compilation), with contributions from Winfried
No. 64 / 2004 Christian Göbel, Thomas Heberer (Hg.): Task Flüchter, Thomas Heberer, Werner Pascha, Frank Roba­
Force: Zivilgesellschaftliche Entwicklungen in China / Task schik, Markus Taube: Overview of East Asian Studies in
Force: Civil Societal Developments in China Central and Eastern Europe

No. 63 / 2005 Thorsten Nilges: Zunehmende Verschuldung No. 47 / 2002 Ulrich Zur-Lienen: Singapurs Strategie zur
durch Mikrokredite. Auswertung eines Experiments in Süd­ Integration seiner multi-ethnischen Bevölkerung: Was sich
indien begegnet gleicht sich an

No. 62 / 2004 Jun Imai: The Rise of Temporary Employ- No. 46 / 2002 Thomas Heberer: Strategische Gruppen
ment in Japan. Legalisation and Expansion of a Non-Regular und Staatskapazität: Das Beispiel der Privatunternehmer
Employment Form in ­China

No. 61 / 2004 Thomas Heberer, Nora Sausmikat: Bilden No. 45 / 2002 Thomas Heberer, Markus Taube: China, the
sich in China Strukturen einer Zivilgesellschaft heraus? European Union and the United States of America: Partners
or Competitors?
No. 60 / 2004 Thomas Heberer, Anja Senz (Hg.): Feldfor-
schung in Asien: Erlebnisse und Ergebnisse aus der Sicht No. 44 / 2002 Werner Pascha: Wirtschaftspolitische Re-
politikwissenschaftlicher Ostasienforschung formen in Japan – Kultur als Hemmschuh?

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 / Kierstin Bolton / Theo Westphal

No. 43 / 2002 Werner Pascha, Klaus Ruth, Cornelia Storz No. 27 / 1999 Claudia Derichs, Tim Goydke, Werner Pascha
(Hg.): Themenschwerpunkt: Einfluss von IT-Technologien (Hg.): Task Force: Ein Gutachten zu den deutschen/­europäi­
auf Strukturen und Prozesse in Unternehmen schen Außen- und Außenwirtschaftsbeziehungen mit Japan

No. 42 / 2002 Karin Adelsberger, Claudia Derichs, Thomas No. 26 / 1999 Susanne Steffen: Der Einsatz der Umwelt-
Heberer, Patrick Raszelenberg: Der 11. September und die politik in der japanischen Elektrizitätswirtschaft
Folgen in Asien. Politische Reaktionen in der VR China, Japan,
Malaysia und Vietnam No. 25 / 1999 Claudia Derichs: Nationbuilding in Malaysia
under Conditions of Globalization
No. 41 / 2001 Claudia Derichs, Thomas Heberer (Hg.):
Task Force: Ein Gutachten zu Beschäftigungspolitik, Alters- No. 24 / 1999 Thomas Heberer, Arno Kohl, Tuong Lai,
vorsorge und Sozialstandards in Ostasien Nguyen Duc Vinh: Aspects of Privat Sector Development in
Vietnam
No. 40 / 2001 Werner Pascha, Frank Robaschik: The Role
of Japanese Local Governments in Stabilisation Policy No. 23 / 1999 Werner Pascha: Corruption in Japan –
An Economist’s Perspective
No. 39 / 2001 Anja Senz, Zhu Yi: Von Ashima zu Yi-Rap:
Die Darstellung nationaler Minderheiten in den chinesi- No. 22 / 1999 Nicole Bastian: Wettbewerb im japanischen
schen Medien am Beispiel der Yi-Nationalität Fernsehmarkt. Neue Strukturen durch Kabel- und Satelliten­
fernsehen? Eine wettbewerbstheoretische Analyse
No. 38 / 2001 Claudia Derichs: Interneteinsatz in den
Duis­burger Ostasienwissenschaften: Ein Erfahrungsbericht No. 21 / 1999 Thomas Heberer: Entrepreneurs as Social
am Beispiel des deutsch-japanischen Seminars „DJ50“ Actors: Privatization and Social Change in China and Vietnam

No. 37 / 2001 Zhang Luocheng: The particularities and No. 20 / 1999 Vereinigung für sozialwissenschaftliche
major problems of minority regions in the middle and west- ­Japan-Forschung (Hg.): Quo vadis sozialwissenschaftliche
ern parts of China and their developmental strategy Japan-Forschung? Methoden und Zukunftsfragen

No. 36 / 2001 Thomas Heberer: Falungong – Religion, No. 19 / 1999 Bong-Ki Kim: Das Problem der interkultu-
Sekte oder Kult? Eine Heilsgemeinschaft als Manifestation rellen Kommunikation am Beispiel der Rezeption Deweys
von Modernisierungsproblemen und sozialen Entfrem- in China
dungsprozessen
No. 18 / 1998 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz (Hg.): Work-
No. 35 / 2001 Claudia Derichs, Thomas Heberer, Patrick shop Klein- und Mittelunternehmen in Japan IV. Themen­
Raszelenberg (Hg.): Task Force: Ein Gutachten zu den politi- schwerpunkt Netzwerke
schen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen Ostasien–NRW
No. 17 / 1998 Andreas Bollmann, Claudia Derichs, Daniel
No. 34 / 2000 Ulrich Jürgens, Werner Pascha, Cornelia Konow, Ulrike Rebele, Christian Schulz, Kerstin Seemann,
Storz (Hg.): Workshop Organisation und Ordnung der japa- Stefanie Teggemann, Stephan Wieland: Interkulturelle Kom-
nischen Wirtschaft I. Themenschwerpunkt: „New Economy“ petenz als Lernziel
– Neue Formen der Arbeitsorganisation in Japan
No. 16 / 1997 Werner Pascha, Cornelia Storz (Hg.): Work-
No. 33 / 2000 Winfried Flüchter: German Geographical shop Klein- und Mittelunternehmen in Japan III. Themen­
Research on Japan schwerpunkt Innovation

No. 32 / 2000 Thomas Heberer, Sabine Jakobi: Henan – No. 15 / 1997 Winfried Flüchter: Tokyo quo vadis? Chancen
The Model: From Hegemonism to Fragmentism. Portrait of und Grenzen (?) metropolitanen Wachstums
the Political Culture of China’s Most Populated Province
No. 14 / 1997 Claudia Derichs: Der westliche Universali-
No. 31 / 2000 Thomas Heberer: Some Considerations on tätsanspruch aus nicht-westlicher Perspektive
China’s Minorities in the 21st Century: Conflict or Concilia-
tion? No. 13 / 1997 Werner Pascha: Economic Globalization and
Social Stabilization: A Dual Challenge for Korea
No. 30 / 2000 Jun Imai, Karen Shire: Flexible Equality:
Men and Women in Employment in Japan No. 12 / 1996 Claudia Derichs: Kleine Einführung in die
Politik und das politische System Japans
No. 29 / 2000 Karl Lichtblau, Werner Pascha, Cornelia
Storz (Hg.): Workshop Klein- und Mittelunternehmen in No. 11 / 1996 Mikiko Eswein: Die Rolle der Berufsbildung
­Japan V. Themenschwerpunkt: M & A in Japan – ein neues beim sozialen Wandel in Japan
In­strument der Unternehmenspolitik?
No. 10 / 1996 Mikiko Eswein: Erziehung zwischen Konfu­
No. 28 / 1999 Rainer Dormels: Regionaler Antagonismus zianismus und Bismarck. Schule und Erziehungssystem in
in Südkorea Japan

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 Yuan Li, Kierstin Bolton, Theo westphal: The Effect of the New Silk Road Railways

No. 9 / 1996 Werner Pascha: On the Relevance of the No. 4 / 1995 Carsten Herrmann-Pillath: Die Volksrepu­blik
German Concept of “Social Market Economy” for Korea und die Republik China: Die Gratwanderung zweier chinesi-
scher Staaten zwischen Politik und Wirtschaft
No. 8 / 1996 Carsten Herrmann-Pillath: Strange Notes
on Modern Statistics and Traditional Popular Religion in No. 3 / 1995 Carsten Herrmann-Pillath: On the Impor-
China: Further Reflections on the Importance of Sinology tance of Studying Late Qing Economic and Social History for
for Social Science as applied on China the Analysis of Contemporary China or: Protecting Sinology
Against Social Science
No. 7 / 1996 Ralph Lützeler: Die japanische Familie der
Gegenwart – Wandel und Beharrung aus demographischer
No. 2 / 1995 H. J. Beckmann, K. Haaf, H. Kranz, W. Pascha,
Sicht
B. Slominski, T. Yamada: „Japan im Netz“. Eine Material-
No. 6 / 1995 Werner Pascha (Hg.): Klein- und Mittelunter­ sammlung zur Nutzung des Internet
nehmen in Japan – Dokumentation eines Workshops
No. 1 / 1995 Claudia Derichs, Winfried Flüchter, Carsten
No. 5 / 1995 Chen Lai: Die Kultur des Volkskonfuzianis- Herrmann-Pillath, Regine Mathias, Werner Pascha: Ostasia-
mus: Eine Untersuchung der Literatur zur kindlichen Erzie- tische Regionalstudien: Warum?
hung (Meng xue)

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