Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar
Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar
Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar Japanese Bond Analysis Seminar
Bloomberg L.P.
2010,Tokyo
Ver.1.1
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Contents
Page
JGB 15yr Floater (“15yr FRN”)
Ticker code 2
OAS analysis 3-4
Yield Analysis (YA) 5
Forward Curve analysis 6-7
Regression Analysis 8
Private security 9
Excel Download
Grid Pont Delta 10
OAS 11
Calculation Overrides 12
Portfolio Functions
Create portfolio 13-
13-14
Portfolio Macro 15
Key Rate Risk 16
Stress Test 17
Value at Risk 18
JGB Inflation-
Inflation-inked Bond(“ILB”)
Ticker/Default setting 19
JGB ILB Evaluation 20--22
20
Break-
Break-even-
even-inflation(BEI) 23-24
Yield Beta / Hedging 25
Multiple Regression Analysis2
Analysis26
Inflation Swap 27--30
27
Supplement:
Supplement:JGB 15yr FRN
Theoretical Value 31--37
31
-2-
15yr FRN Analysis_2 Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) Analysis
① ② ③ ④
【OAS Analysis】
① Calculate ④ Volatility
Set output to be calculated. You can For Lognormal model, this is the
choose one from the following. “O” will annualized volatility of the short rate to
come up as a default. calculate OAS. 20% is set as a default for
JGB 15yr Floaters.
P:Price
O:Option-adjusted spread (OAS) ⑤ Settle
V:Volatility The date securities must be delivered and
paid for to complete transaction.
② Price
The ask price of the bond.
③ OAS(bp)
The option-adjusted spread, in basis points
(bp).This represents the incremental return
due to credit risk.
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15yr FRN Analysis_3 Benchmark yield shift / customize
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15yr FRN Analysis_4 FRN analysis
③
⑤
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Forward Curve Analysis_1 To find forward JGB10yr rates
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Forward Curve Analysis_2 Forward Curve Matrix
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Regression Analysis Creating yield spread tickers
Example: :
JF40<GOVT> (the created JGB 20yr-10yr
【Yield regression analysis】
spread )<Index>YRH<GO>
YRH is to estimate the historical
relationship between the selected
two securities.
You can use YRH to calculate yield
beta (1bp value) of a selected JGB
15yr FRN to the JGB 20yr-10yr
spread. To calculate it, set
“Val/Dif/Per” column to “D”.
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Create private securities Create a hypothetical JGB 15yr FRN
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Grid Point Delta (GPD) Download GPD on excel
Example
【Exhibit 1】
】
【API Data Download】
① Example procedure:
③
① Enter ticker codes horizontally without
any blank cells. We use JGB 15YR FRN
② tickers in Exhibit 1.
② Enter the following field names
vertically without blank cells:
GRID_PT_DELTA_3M
(Grid point delta 3M)
GRID_PT_DELTA_6M
(Grid point delta 6M)
GRID_PT_DELTA_1Y
(Grid point delta 6M)
・
・
GRID_PT_DELTA_30Y
(Grid point delta 30Y)
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Option Adjusted Spread (OAS) Download OAS on excel
Example
【Exhibit 1】
】 【API Data download】
Example procedure:
1. Enter bond tickers from cell B3
vertically.
2. Enter field names which you would
like to show horizontally. In Exhibit
1, we use the following field names:
FLT_SPREAD (Quoted margin)
MATURITY(Maturity date)
PX ASK (Ask price)
MTY_YEARS
(Years from settle to maturity)
OAS SPREAD ASK (Ask OAS)
O AS
10
9
8
7
6
OAS
5
4
3
2
1
0
8 10 12 14 16
YR
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Calculation Overrides Yield/Price/OAS calculation on excel
Example
【API Data Download】
【Exhibit 1】
】
Example procedure:
1. Enter bond tickers from cell B5
vertically.
2. Enter field names which you would
like to show horizontally. In Exhibit
1, we use the following field names:
PX_ASK (Ask price)
OAS_SPREAD_ASK (Ask OAS)
OAS_VOL_ASK(OAS Volatility)
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Create portfolio Create portfolio
PRTU<GO>1<GO> 【Create portfolio】
Procedure:
① ④ ① Enter a name into “Name” field.
②
③ ② Set position type.
③ Set asset class. For bond portfolios,
select “Fixed Income”.
④ Select base currency of the portfolio.
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Portfolio edit List, Update, Share portfolio
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Create portfolio Macro Combine portfolios
① Procedure:
③ ②
① Name a macro.
② Set base currency of the macro.
③ Enter each portfolio’s number into
“Port” column. To display portfolio
numbers, type PRTU<GO> and look
at “Num” column.
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Key rate risk Algorithmics Model
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Stress Test Algorithmics Model
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Value at Risk (VaR) Algorithmics Model
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JGB Inflation linked Ticker codes / Default settings
COVR<GO> on page 4
To set yield beta assumption(see page
25) on YA function
Default setting is 0.5
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JGB ILB analysis_1
①
①Yield calculations
Real yield (Simple/ Compound)
② The standard yield-to-maturity
calculation (without inflation
adjustment).
Inflation assumption
It’s based on annual percentage
change of reference CPI.
②
②Sensitivity Analysis
Yield-Beta Assumptions
Yield beta attempts to measure the
slope of the relationship between
nominal yields and real yield.
To set simple/compound yield and
yield-beta default settings, type
COVR<GO> (see page 19).
To calculate historical yield-beta, use
YRH function (see page 25).
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JGB ILB analysis_2
Net Amount
=Flat+Inflation Acc+Coupon Acc
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JGB ILB analysis_3 Evaluation based on BEI
② ①
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BEI analysis_1 Break-even-inflation rates
Example:
JBI9 <Govt> JB282 <Govt>HS <GO> 【Historical spread analysis】
Exhibit # shows the historical spread
(BEI) between nominal JGB and
Inflation-linked JGB.
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BEI analysis_2 Compare BEI rates
“Multiple Security”
G<GO>1<GO>→“ 【Multiple Security graph】
Sample procedure:
① G<GO>1<GO> and choose
“Multiple Securities” then click on
“Next” .
② Set the period and data range of the
graph and enter security ticker codes.
You can set up to 20 securities.
① Then click on “Next”.
③ After that, enter graph title and
display settings then click on
② “Finish”.
④ The graphs are drawn.
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Yield beta and hedging Yield-beta / Hedging
Example:
JBI6 <Govt> JB274 <Govt>YRH <GO>
【Yield regression analysis】
① You can use YRH to calculate yield
beta (1bp value) of a selected JGB
② inflation-linked bond to the nominal
③ JGB. To calculate it please set the
followings:
①Click on “Edit” and change “Yield” to
“Semi-annual”
②Change “Regression” field to
“Difference”
③Historical betas are shown.
On the left screen, it shows historical
beta for past 2 years. Beta equals 0.617
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Inflation swap analysis Inflation Swap
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Inflation swap default / data Default settings
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Inflation swap data Market data
ILBM<GO> 【World inflation swap monitor】
Use ILBM to monitor pricing data
and to draw graphs for inflation
swaps.
Pricing source of the data depends
on SWIL settings.
Graph
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Seasonality Seasonality Graph
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Supplement:
15YR FRN Theoretical value_1
Example:
Example:JGB 15yr FRN series 37
JF37 <Govt> DES<GO>
Cash flow
D15.0
p D14.5 100
Dn:: Discount factor for n year
D1.0 : Theoritical price
P:
: Next coupon
c:
D0.5
C ・・・・・
FWD10YR - α
Evaluation:
JGB 15yr FRN can be dismantled as follows:
= Principle amount+
JGB 15yr FRN= +coupons+
+options
= Zero coupon bond(①
①)+
+Constant maturity treasury swap(CMT)(②
②)
+Floor option(③
③)
To evaluate a theoretical value of a JGB 15yr FRN, please register each of the
components on Bloomberg then enter them into a portfolio. After that, evaluate the
portfolio regarding as a bond.
We will see the details of each component from next page.
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Supplement :
15YR FRN Theoretical value_2 Evaluate principle amount
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Supplement :
15YR FRN Theoretical value_3 Create JGB curve for evaluation
【Exhibit 1】
IYC1<GO>
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Supplement :
15YR FRN Theoretical value_4 Evaluate coupon part
“Swap&Options”
SWPM<GO>→“
【Swap Manager】
“CMS Swaps”
→“ ”→“
“Fix-Float CMS”
Procedure:
①
⑤ ① Set “Receive Float”.
④
② ② Enter “Notional amount”,
“Currency”, “Effective”, “Maturity”
etc to meet the bond’s conditions.
③ Set both Discount curve and Forward
③ curve to the custom curve which
you’ve created on page 33.
④ Change “Cpn” to zero.
⑤ ・Change “Tenor” to “10YR” and
also enter “JGBY10YR” into
“Index” field on floating side.
・Enter “-75”(Quoted margin of JGB
15yr FRN #37) into “Spread” field.
“Actions”
SWPM<GO>→“ ”→“
“Load”
”
・Change the “Day count” field to
“Act/365” on floating side.
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Supplement :
15YR FRN Theoretical value_5 Coupon floor option valuation
“Swaps&Options”
SWPM <GO>→“ ”→“
“Options”
”
“Floor”
→“ ”→“
“CMS”
” 【Floor option analysis】
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Supplement :
15YR FRN Theoretical value _6 Create portfolio
PRTU<GO>1<GO> 【Create portfolio】
Procedure:
① ④ ① Enter an appropriate name into
② “Name” field.
③
② Set position type.
③ Set asset class. For bond portfolios,
select “Fixed Income”.
④ Select base currency of the portfolio.
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Comparison of VaR models
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