Add Math SBA

Name: Shanice Russell

Teacher: Mr. Smith
Class: 11N
Centre #: 100121
Candidate #:
Project Title: Modelling the growth of a town’s population with the use of

logarithms
Purpose of Project

To mathematically model the future population of the Fruitvale town.

Problem Statement

Fruitvale is a small town. The population of Fruitvale town has been increasing steadily over

the years. In order to plan for the community and for the accompaniment of this growth, the

town counsellors would like to mathematically model the future population of the town. They

want:

 To determine an equation for the town’s population.

 To find the rate of growth of the Fruitvale town population.

 To determine/ predict :

1. How long since 2013 will it take the town’s population to reach 500

2. the size of the population in the year 2030 since 2013

 Sketch a graph of the Fruitvale town population for the 37 years following 2013 to

show a visual representation to the rest of the town board members.

 Graphically determine the time that the population will take to reach double of its

initial population (2013).

Mathematical Formulation

1. Equation to find the rate of growth of the town.

Growth rate = r

Present value = v

Initial value = u

Original formula

R= rate

R= Current amount – Intial amount x 100

Initial amount

Researcher’s formula

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

v = current population

u = initial population

r = growth rate of population

2. Average growth rate

O = Average growth rate

o = r1+r2+r3+r4+r5
5
3. Logarithmic growth equation

A= A0ekt

A = ending value (amount after growth or decay)

A0 = initial value (amount before measuring growth or decay)

e = exponential e = 2.71828183...

k = continuous growth rate (also called constant of proportionality)

t = time that has passed

Researcher’s variable:

P= Population size

P0 = initial population size

t= years passed since initial year

r= rate of growth

ln= natural log

Therefore the equation to be used will be

P= P0ert

In the year of 2013 the population of Fruitvale was 200. In 2014 the

population rose by 15. In the year of 2015 the population was 230. The

following year 2016, the population was at 250, it then rose by 17 in 2017

before reaching its current population of 280 which was recorded for the

year of 2018, the last time that a population count.

The table below shows the exponential values of P and r. Where the

relationship between P and r takes the form of P= P0ert

P 200 215 230 250 267 280

T 0 1 2 3 4 5

Using the principles of logarithms

P= P0ert

lnP= ln(P0ert)

lnP= lnP0 +lnert

lnP= lnP0 +rtlne

(lne )

lnP= lnP0 + rt

lnP= rt + lnP0

This is in the same form as y= mx + c

Therefore a graph can be plotted to find the unknown values of lnP0 and r.

If a graph of lnP and t is plotted and the best fit line is a straight line is

drawn, the gradient of the line gives the value of r and the y-intercept is the

log of P0.
 Table showing the values of lnP and t

lnP 5.30 5.37 5.44 5.52 5.59 5.63

t 0 1 2 3 4 5

Graphing showing lnP (natural log of the population) against t (time)

m= 0.0696385608393

m=0.07 rounded to the nearest 2 dp

r≡ m
⸫ r = 0.07

Proving that the growth rate of the town is 7%

Finding the average growth rate of the town

v = 200 + 15

v = 215

u = 200

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r1 = (215-200) x 100
. 200

r1 = (15) x 100
. 200

r1 = 0.075 x 100

r1 = 7.5%

Therefore the growth rate for the period of 2013- 2014 is 7.5%

v = 230

u = 215

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r2 = (230-215) x 100
. 215
r2 = (15) x 100
. 215

r2 = 0.0698 x 100

r2 = 6.98%

r2 = 7% rounded to the nearest whole number

Therefore the growth rate for the period of 2014- 2015 is 7%

v = 250

u = 230

r3 = (v- u) x 100
. u

r3 = (250- 230) x 100

. 230

r3 = 20 x 100
. 230

r3 = 0.0869 x 100

r3 = 8.7 % to 1 dp

Therefore the growth rate for the population from 2015 to 2016 was 8.7%

v =250 + 17= 267

⸫ v = 267

u = 250

r4 = (267- 250) x 100

. 250

r4 = 17 x 100
. 250
r4 = 0.068 x 100

r4 = 6.8 %

⸫ The growth rate for population from 2016 to 2017 was 6.8%

v = 280

u = 267

r = (v- u) x 100
. u

r5 = (280- 267) x 100

. 267

r5 = 13 x 100
. 267

r5 = 0.0486 x 100

r5 = 4.9% to 1 dp

⸫The growth rate of the period 2017 to 2018 was 4.9%

Finding the average growth rate of Fruitvale Town’s

population
O = r1+r2+r3+r4+r5
5

O = (7.5% +7% +8.7%+6.8%+ 4.9%)

5
O = 34.9%
5

O = 6.98%

O = 7% rounded up to the nearest whole number.

Population in 2014

P= P0ert

P= 200e0.07x1

P= 200e0.07

P= 214.501

P=215

The population in of the town was 215 according to the town’s records.

Population in 2015

P = 200e0.07x2

P= 200e0.14

P= 230.05

P= 230

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 230 according to the town’s
records.

Population in 2016

P = 200e0.07x3

P = 200e0.21

P= 247
The population in of the Fruitvale town was 250 according to the town’s
records. There was only a 3 person difference.

Population in 2017

P = 200e0.07x4

P = 200e0.07x0.28

P= 265

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 267 according to the town’s
records. There was only a 2 person difference.

Population in 2018

P = 200e0.07x5

P = 200e0.35

P= 283

The population in of the Fruitvale town was 280 according to the town’s
records. There is only a 3 person difference.

Therefore it can be said that the rate of the population is approximately 7% and
that this equation is appropriate to model the growth of this town.
Using the equation determined for the town’s population to
find:

1. How long will it take since 2013 for the town’s population to reach 500

people?

P = 500

P0 = 200

t=?

r= 7%

Therefore the equation to be used will be

P= P0ert

500 = 200e(0.07 x t)

ln200 =

500/200= e0.35

500=

P= 397

⸫the time that it would take

 ⸫

2. the size of the population in the year 2030 since the year of 2013

t= 2030-2013

t=17 years

P0= 200

r=7%

P= P0ert

P= 200e(0.07 x 17years)

P= 280e0.84

P= 657.416

P= 657

⸫ the population of the town in 2030 is estimated to be 657.

 Discussion

They can now go ahead plan for the future of their town. They will now know how to pace
the expansion and development of the town and can decide what is best for the town’s future.
The growth of the town is exponential and therefore an exponential equation is valid.

(R = 2.718282.77) makes use of an important constant that might be recalled from elementary
calculus, Euler’s constant. Expressing whatever value of R as Euler’s constant raised to some power is
actually extremely useful — it brings the full power of calculus into the picture. If we symbolize
Euler’s constant as e we can write Equation 2 as

N(t)= N(0)ert

Now if we take the natural log of both sides of Equation 3 — remember ln(ex) = x — Equation 3
becomes: ln [N(t)] = ln [N(0)] + rt

And if we began the population with a single individual (as in the example above), we have

Problem Solution

Application of Solution

Conclusion