PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE I – INTRODUCTION TO EPIDEMIOLOGY

This outline is provided as an aid to the student. It contains only the basic content of
the module. To view the supporting material such as graphics, examples, etc. please
see the module itself.

I. INTRODUCTION
A. What is the Purpose of Epidemiology:
• to better understand the burden and causes of health problems in human
populations, and
• to make changes that decrease risk and improve health.

B. Epidemiology is comprised of a set of tools, including:

• Scientific methods for study/research
• Techniques for collecting and organizing information
• Information about the biological basis of health and illness
• Information about human behavior that affects health
• “People skills” needed to gain cooperation and gather solid information

C. Epidemiology can be applied to any aspect of human health, including:

• all types of diseases
• impairments
• disabilities
• injuries
• the utilization and outcomes of health services, and even
• good health.

D. Epidemiology has been used to study these conditions and many more:
• West Nile Virus infections
• Sexually transmitted diseases and HIV
• Surgical wound infections
• Hip fractures
• Childhood malnutrition
• Pertussis (whooping cough)
• Schizophrenia

E. Epidemiology can help us identify and understand the factors that influence
the emergence, severity, and consequences of health problems. Examples
include:
• tobacco use and lung cancer
• physical activity and heart disease
• diet and longevity
• lead exposure and developmental disabilities

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 • seat belt use and motor vehicle injuries/deaths
• childhood vaccine initiatives and child mortality
• statin drugs and outcomes of atherosclerotic heart disease

This course will concentrate on the use of epidemiology to understand, prevent

and control infectious diseases.

F. Infectious diseases:
• Are caused by micro-organisms
• Are transmitted to humans from other humans, animals or the environment
• Usually follow recognizable patterns of symptoms, timing, etc.
• Evolve over time as new organisms emerge and human behavior and
environments change

G. This module is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the

following objectives:
1. Define key epidemiologic terms
2. Describe at least five factors that significantly influence the incidence and
distribution of a disease in a human population
3. Describe the modern approach to epidemiology

II. KEY EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TERMS

A. EPIDEMIOLOGY is derived from three Greek root words:

epi – on, upon
demos – people
logy – study

Epidemiology is, thus, the study of what is upon the people. In modern terms, it is the
science of the distribution of disease and its determinants (causes).

Epidemiology is also a process that uses the facts at hand as clues to point to new
knowledge and solutions. Epidemiologists have been called “disease detectives” and
“medical sleuths” for this reason.

B. Three key terms are used to describe basic patterns of infectious disease
occurrence. The terms are defined by the American Public Health Association (APHA)
as:
Endemic: The habitual presence of a disease within a given geographic area; may also
refer to the usual prevalence of a given disease within such an area.
Epidemic: The occurrence in a community or region of a group of illnesses of similar
nature, clearly in excess of normal expectancy, and derived from a common or from a
propagated source.
Pandemic: A worldwide epidemic.

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Endemic disease levels are measured by ongoing surveillance systems. Some
fluctuations usually occur.
The transition from endemic to epidemic can happen in days, weeks, months, or
even years, depending on the disease. It may be hard to tell when the shift begins.

There are parallel terms referring to disease patterns in animals that may affect
humans:
Zoonosis: An infection or an infectious disease transmissible under natural conditions
between vertebrate animals and man (APHA).
Enzootic: “Endemic” among animal populations
Epizootic: “Epidemic” among animal populations

C. The term epidemiology is used to refer both to:

A method of study of diseases, and
A body of knowledge about the natural history of a disease

The natural history of a disease is a description of how that disease “behaves” and what
factors affect its incidence and distribution. Here is a partial list of such factors:
1. Biological
2. Geographic
3. Nutritional
4. Meteorological
5. Social
6. Cultural
7. Religious
8. Behavioral
9. Economic
10. Historical
11. Political
12. Technological

Example:
“The Epidemiology of Measles” includes:
Factor Example
Causative organism Measles virus
Host Humans
Mode of transmission Airborne droplets and direct contact with secretions
Incubation period About 10 days, range 7-18 days from exposure
Period of From a few days before onset of illness to 4 days after the
communicability appearance of the rash
Usual symptoms Fever, conjunctivitis, coryza, cough and blotchy red rash
Complications Otitis media, pneumonia, croup, diarrhea and encephalitis
Mortality rate 2-3 per 1,000 cases in USA; 3-5% in developing countries
Epidemiologic methods were used to compile most of this information.

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III. EVOLUTION OF EPIDEMIOLOGY

Human beings have always sought to understand and explain the occurrence of
disease and death.

A. Supernatural Causation
• Throughout most of human history, people believed in the supernatural as the cause
of illness.
• Individuals and communities who became ill were thought to have angered the gods
or spirits, or to be victims of their enemies’ magic.
• Such beliefs are still held today, even in otherwise modern societies.

B. Environmental Explanations
• Hippocrates was the first to suggest that disease is caused by environmental
elements, around 400 B.C.E.
• From 400 B.C.E. until the mid-19th century, many theories were developed to explain
infection.
• Most of these theories were based on the concept of miasmas. Contagious matter
was thought to create a gaseous form, a miasma, which spread infection through the
atmosphere.

C. Host Factors
• Edward Jenner, in 1796, introduced the idea of host resistance to explain why some
people were immune to smallpox.
• Peter Panum, in 1846, took this idea further when he studied measles in the Faroe
Islands. The islanders had not been exposed to measles in 70 years, and many
otherwise healthy adults died.
• By contrast, in mainland Denmark all were exposed to measles in childhood, and
adult deaths from this disease were rare.

D. Toward a Modern Approach

I. John Snow, a British scientist, made the greatest strides toward modern
epidemiology in the 19th Century.
• At that time, infectious diseases were the leading causes of death.
• Up to half of all children died before the age of five, mostly due to
infectious diseases.
a. Snow’s first study was conducted in 1848 when an epidemic of cholera hit
the Golden Square area of London.
• Even before bacteria were discovered as a cause of disease, Snow
was able to stop devastating outbreaks by observing and recording
information about the distribution of the disease.
• Snow was working from a theory that water had something to do with
the spread of cholera.
• In the Golden Square area, most people got their water from public
pumps.

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 • Snow’s first step was to gather information about the cholera patients
in the area, and record their residence or place of work.
• He developed a spot map that showed the distribution of cases in
relation to the water pumps.
• Snow investigated all the pumps in the area.
• One pump was so grossly contaminated that people had
avoided its use.
• One pump was in an out-of-the way location, and therefore not
used much.
• Many of the cholera cases were clustered around the Broad
Street Pump.
• When Snow checked with the families of the cholera victims, he
confirmed that they all used the Broad Street Pump.
• Snow showed that by studying the distribution of cases, a source of
infection could be found that explained the pattern. He then took
action to stop the epidemic, by having the pump handle removed.

b. Snow did more pioneering work during another cholera outbreak in 1854.
• This outbreak affected several areas of London that depended on
water hauled in by wagon.
• Two companies, the Southwark and Vauxhall (S&V) Company and
the Lambeth Company, did the hauling.
• Some districts were served mostly by S&V, other districts mostly by
Lambeth, and some districts were served by both.
• Snow compared the number of cholera deaths in the various districts.
• Snow realized that the raw numbers of deaths could not tell him
much.
• If some districts had many more people than others, they couldn’t
really be compared.
• So he collected population figures from the most recent census and
calculated cholera death rates per 1,000 people.
• The rates paint a very clear picture.
• The death rate was 22 times higher in the districts served only by
S&V, compared with those served only by Lambeth.
• Further investigation showed that both companies were drawing their
water from the Thames River.
• However, S&V pulled water from a point just downstream from a
major sewer outlet, while Lambeth drew theirs upstream from the
outlet.
• Snow had shown conclusively that water could serve as a vehicle for
transmitting infection. He also showed that humans could intervene, in
this case by changing the location of the S&V water intake.

2. William Farr, the father of modern vital records, was another important figure
in the development of epidemiology. His contributions include:

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 • establishing the first registry of births and deaths in the 1830s.
• advancing population-based surveillance.
• distributing reports that led to public health interventions.
Example: Mortality in Liverpool, 1843. The median age of survival in Liverpool in 1843
was 6 years, compared with an average of 45 in the rest of England. This revelation led
to policy and law changes to improve sanitation.

3. Establishment of the Germ Theory (1860 to 1890)

• Studies by Louis Pasteur and Robert Koch firmly established the germ theory.
• Attention and research efforts shifted
o to biological agents, and
o away from the environment or host resistance.
• This shift happened in spite of Pasteur’s warning that the role of the environment
was more important than that of the agent.
• Snow’s work was not appreciated or expanded upon until the years after World
War II.

4. Modern Epidemiology

a. The modern approach in describing an infectious disease focuses on:

• the interaction of the disease agent,
• the host, and
• the environment.

b. The disease agent, the host, and the environment interact dynamically to produce
disease. All three of these are constantly changing:
• Disease agent: Microorganisms adapt to changing conditions, including
human control efforts such as antibiotics.
• Host: Human populations are constantly growing and moving as people
age, travel, and migrate into new environments.
• Environment: Changes occur locally and globally, both naturally and
through human intervention.

(i) Disease Agents: There are many “agents” of disease and disabilities,
including:
• nutritional components such as vitamin deficiency diseases and obesity.
• physical forces such as fire, radiation, and chemicals.
• biological agents such as bacteria and viruses.
In this course, however, we will be focusing on biological agents that will be
covered more fully in other segments of the course.

(ii) Host Factors: Some host factors that influence susceptibility to disease are:
Sex
Race
Age
Occupation

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 Nutrition
Heredity
Marital status
Socioeconomic status
Religious and social customs
Immunization history
Previous history of disease

(iii) Environmental Factors: Many aspects of the environment influence both an

agent’s survival and growth, and a host’s contact with a disease agent. Some of the
environmental factors are shown below.
Temperature
Humidity
Altitude
Water
Radiation
Pollution
Housing conditions
Food/milk

Each disease is influenced by a particular set of factors.

Examples:
1) Some foodborne diseases, such as salmonella, are highly dependent on
environmental factors such as cross-contamination and cooking/holding temperatures.
2) The spread of measles is influenced by immunization status, but also by housing
conditions and nutritional status.
3) Disease history is a big factor with some diseases, such as hepatitis A, that confer
lifetime immunity after infection.
4) Many other diseases can cause repeated infections in the same individual, for
example gonorrhea, shigellosis and malaria.
5) Some diseases are transmitted to humans only through arthropod vectors such as
mosquitoes, ticks or lice.
• These disease organisms may have complex lifecycles that pass through
several different hosts.
• For example, the spirochete that causes Lyme Disease is transmitted to
humans from certain ticks, but its lifecycle includes rodents and large
mammals such as deer.
• Vectors are subject to agent, host and environmental factors too.

Epidemiology gives us tools to learn about how these factors interact to produce a
particular disease in a particular population. Good epidemiology is most critical when
investigating an outbreak or the emergence of a new disease - some of the most
important tasks of the field epidemiologist.

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A team approach is almost always used in epidemiologic investigations. The range of
experts needed depends on the disease and the setting, but usually includes:
• Epidemiologists
• Medical professionals (physicians, nurses)
• Laboratory scientists
• Statisticians
• Environmental specialists

Summary

Epidemiology is a set of tools for understanding the burden and causes of health
problems in human populations, so that we can make changes that decrease risk and
improve health.

Epidemiology can help us identify and understand the factors that influence the
emergence, severity, and consequences of health problems.

Epidemiology is defined as the science of the distribution of disease and its

determinants (causes).

Human beings have always sought to understand and explain the occurrence of
disease and death. The modern approach to epidemiology has developed within the
past 150 years.

The modern epidemiological approach to infectious diseases focuses on the interaction

of the disease agent, the host and the environment.

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PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE II – THE INFECTIOUS DISEASE PROCESS

This outline is provided as an aid to the student. It contains only the basic content of
the module. To view the supporting material such as graphics, examples, etc. please
see the module itself.

I. INTRODUCTION

Module II is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the following objectives:
1. Describe the six major components of the infectious disease process
2. Demonstrate understanding of the concepts of the infectious disease
spectrum

II. THE CHAIN OF INFECTION

In order for infection and disease to occur in an individual, a process involving six
related components must occur. This process has been referred to as the “Chain of
Infection.” The six steps or “links” in the chain are:
• Etiologic agent
• Reservoir
• Portal of Exit
• Mode of Transmission
• Portal of Entry
• Susceptible Host

In this module, we will examine each of these links and some other important concepts
that help us understand infectious disease transmission. To stop the spread of disease,
one or more of these links must be broken.

A. Etiologic Agents

There are seven categories of biological agents that can cause infectious diseases.
Each has its own particular characteristics. The types of agents are:
1. Metazoa
2. Protozoa
3. Fungi
4. Bacteria
5. Rickettsia
6. Viruses
7. Prions

1. Metazoa are multicellular animals, many of which are parasites. Among the
diseases they cause are:

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 a. Trichinellosis, also called trichinosis, caused by an intestinal roundworm
transmitted through undercooked meat.
b. Hookworm, transmitted through feces-contaminated water and soil. Infestation
can cause chronic anemia that often results in retarded mental and physical
development of children.
c. Schistosomiasis, caused by a blood fluke and transmitted through
contaminated water. Symptoms are related to the number and location of
eggs in the human body, and may involve the liver, intestines, spleen, urinary
tract, and reproductive system.

2. Protozoa are single-cell organisms with a well-defined nucleus. Some of these are
human parasites. Examples of diseases cause by protozoa include:
a. Malaria, a mosquito-borne disease that is one of the top three infectious
diseases in the world (along with tuberculosis and HIV).
b. Giardiasis, an infection of the upper small intestine that causes a diarrheal
illness. Outbreaks can be difficult to control, especially in child care settings
c. Toxoplasmosis, transmitted to humans from cats and undercooked meat.
When this systemic disease infects a pregnant woman, it can cause the death of
the fetus.
d. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia or PCP, which is often fatal, especially in
people with compromised immune systems such as those infected with HIV.

3. Fungi are nonmotile, filamentous organisms that cause diseases that can be very
difficult to treat. Some examples important to public health are:
a. Histoplasmosis, transmitted by inhaling dust from soil that contains bird
droppings. The severity varies widely, with the lungs the most common site of
infection.
b. Candidiasis, transmitted by contact with human patients and carriers. This
fungus causes lesions on the skin or mucous membranes, including “thrush” and
vulvovaginitis. Symptoms can be severe in immunocompromised people.

4. Bacteria are single-celled organisms that lack a nucleus. They are responsible for a
wide range of human diseases, including:
a. Tuberculosis, a chronic lung disease that is a major cause of disability and
death in many parts of the world.
b. Staphylococcal disease, which can affect almost every organ system.
Severity ranges from a single pustule of impetigo, through pneumonia, arthritis,
endocarditis, etc., to sepsis and death.
c. Chlamydia and gonorrhea, the most widespread sexually transmitted
diseases.
d. Tetanus and diphtheria, two diseases that were once major public health
problems but are now well controlled through immunization.
d. Other vaccine-preventable diseases caused by bacteria are:
• Pertussis
• Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib)
• Pneumococcal disease.

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5. Rickettsia are a genus of bacteria usually found in the cells of lice, ticks, fleas and
mites. They are smaller than most bacteria and share some characteristics of viruses.
Diseases cause by rickettsia include:
a. Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, a tick-borne systemic disease that can be
hard to diagnose and that leads to death in 3-5% of US cases.
b. Typhus, a louse-borne rash illness with a high case-fatality rate that has
occurred historically in poor living conditions brought on by war and famine.

6. Viruses are very small, consisting of an RNA or DNA core and an outer coat of
protein. They can reproduce and grow only inside of living cells. Many viral illnesses
are significant to public health, including:
a. Influenza, a respiratory illness that contributes to development of pneumonia
and occurs in annual epidemics during the winter months
b. HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), that causes Acquired Immunodeficiency
Syndrome (AIDS). This severe, life-threatening pandemic disease has spread
worldwide within the past 20-30 years.
c. Rabies, that is spread to humans from animal bites or scratches. Rabies is
almost always fatal in humans but is preventable by a vaccine.
d. Measles, mumps, rubella, and poliomyelitis are all well controlled in the US
through immunization.

7. Prions are infectious agents that do not have any genes. They seem to consist of a
protein with an aberrant structure, which somehow replicates in animal or human tissue.
Prions cause severe damage to the brain. Diseases associated with prions include:
a. CWD, chronic wasting disease of mule, deer and elk;
b. BSE, bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cows; and
c. CJD, Creutzfeld-Jacob disease in humans.
[
B. Reservoirs

The next essential link in the chain of infection is the reservoir, the usual habitat in
which the agent lives and multiplies. Depending upon the agent, the reservoir may be:
• humans,
• animals, and/or
• environment
When working with any disease agent, it is important to learn about its usual
reservoir(s).

1. Human Reservoirs
There are two types of human reservoirs, acute clinical cases and carriers.

a. Acute clinical cases are people who are infected with the disease agent and
become ill.
• Because they are ill, their contacts and activities may be limited.

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 • They are also more likely to be diagnosed and treated than carriers
are.

b. Carriers, on the other hand, are people who harbor infectious agents but are
not ill.
• Carriers may present more risk for disease transmission than acute
clinical cases, because their contacts are unaware of their infection,
and their activities are not restricted by illness.
• Depending on the disease, any of the following types of carriers may
be important:
Incubatory carriers
Inapparent infections (also called subclinical cases)
Convalescent carriers
Chronic carriers

Incubatory carriers are people who are going to become ill, but begin
transmitting their infection before their symptoms start. Examples:
measles: a person infected with measles begins to shed the virus in nasal
and throat secretions a day or two before any cold symptoms or rash are
noticeable. Many other diseases also have an incubatory carrier phase.
Most notably, HIV infection may be present for years before the person
develops any symptoms.

Inapparent infections: People with inapparent infections never develop an

illness, but are able to transmit their infection to others. With some
diseases, inapparent infections are more common than acute clinical
cases. Example: Of every 100 individuals infected with the poliomyelitis
virus, only one becomes paralyzed. Four others will have a mild illness
with fever, malaise, headache, nausea and vomiting. But 95 out of the
100 will have no symptoms at all, although they pass the virus in their
feces.

Sometimes the likelihood of an inapparent infection depends on another

epidemiologic factor, such as age. Hepatitis A is a good example of this.
Over 50% of adults infected with this virus develop symptoms. However,
among children under 5, there may be 10 inapparent infections for every
child who develops jaundice. So children are very effective spreaders of
the hepatitis A virus, which is passed in the feces regardless of the
presence of symptoms.

Subclinical infections: With some diseases, such as meningococcal

meningitis, the number of subclinical cases may be quite high before a
single clinical case appears. On some military bases where outbreaks
have occurred, the carrier rate has been documented at 50% or more.

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 Convalescent carriers are people who continue to be infectious during and
even after their recovery from illness. This happens with many diseases.
Example: Salmonella patients may excrete the bacteria in feces for
several weeks, and rarely even for a year or more. This is most common
in infants and young children. Treatment with inappropriate antibiotics
may prolong the convalescent carrier phase.

Chronic carriers are people who continue to harbor infections for a year or
longer after their recovery. Example: the chronic carrier state is not
uncommon following hepatitis B infection, whether or not the person
became ill, and may be lifelong. The risk of developing chronic hepatitis B
depends on the person’s age at infection. About 90% of infants infected at
birth become chronic carriers of the disease, compared with only 1-10%
infected after age 5. That is why it is so important to give hepatitis B
vaccine to newborns.

2. Animal Reservoirs
Animal reservoirs of infectious agents can be described in the same way as human
reservoirs. They may be
• acute clinical cases, or
• carriers.
Depending upon the disease, different carrier phases may be important in transmission.

3. Environmental Reservoirs
Plants, soil and water may serve as the reservoir of infection for a variety of diseases.
• Most fungal agents (mycoses) live and multiply in the soil.
Examples:
The organism that causes histoplasmosis lives in soil with high organic
content and undisturbed bird droppings.
The agents that cause tetanus, anthrax and botulism are widely distributed
in soil.
The agent of Legionnaire’s Disease lives in water, including hot water
heaters.

C. Portal of Exit

The next link in the chain of disease transmission is the portal of exit, the route by
which the disease agent may escape from the human or animal reservoir. While
many disease agents have only one portal of exit, others may leave by various portals.

The portals most commonly associated with human and animal diseases are:
• Respiratory
• Genitourinary
• Alimentary
• Skin
Superficial lesions

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 Percutaneous
• Transplacental

1. Respiratory: This is the route of many disease agents that cause respiratory
illnesses such as the common cold, influenza, and tuberculosis. It is also the route
used by many childhood vaccine-preventable diseases, including measles, mumps,
rubella, pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), and pneumococcal disease.
This is the most important portal and the most difficult to control.

2. Genitourinary: This portal of exit is the route of sexually transmitted diseases,

including syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV. Schistosomiasis, a parasitic disease,
and leptospirosis, a bacterial infection, are both spread through urine released into the
environment.

3. Alimentary: The alimentary portal of exit may be the mouth, as in rabies and other
diseases transmitted by bites. More commonly, disease agents are spread by the other
end of the intestinal tract. These are referred to as enteric diseases. In general, enteric
diseases may be controlled through good hygiene, proper food preparation and sanitary
sewage disposal. Examples include:
• Hepatitis A
• Salmonella, including typhoid
• Shigella
• Cholera
• Giardia
• Campylobacter

4. Skin: Skin may serve as a portal of exit through superficial lesions or through
percutaneous penetration.
• Superficial skin lesions that produce infectious discharges are found in
smallpox, varicella (chickenpox), syphilis, chancroid, and impetigo.
• Percutaneous exit occurs through mosquito bites (malaria, West Nile virus) or
through the use of needles (hepatitis B and C, HIV).

5. Transplacental: This portal of exit from mother to fetus is important in the

transmission of rubella, HIV, syphilis, and cytomegalovirus (the most common infectious
cause of developmental disabilities). It is, fortunately, not a factor for most diseases.

D. Mode of Transmission

A mode of transmission is necessary to bridge the gap between the portal of exit from
the reservoir and the portal of entry into the host. The two basic modes are direct and
indirect.

1. Direct transmission occurs more or less immediately. Many diseases are

transmitted by direct contact with the human, animal or environmental reservoir. Prime

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examples are sexually transmitted diseases and enteric diseases such as shigella,
giardia and campylobacter. Contact with soil may lead to mycotic (fungal) diseases.

Droplet spread is also considered direct transmission. Infectious aerosols produced by

coughing or sneezing can transmit infection directly to susceptible people up to three
feet away. Many respiratory diseases are spread this way.

2. Indirect transmission may occur through animate or inanimate mechanisms.

• Animate mechanisms involve vectors. Flies may transmit infectious agents such
as shigella in a purely mechanical way, by walking on feces and then on food.
Mosquitoes, ticks or fleas may serve as reservoirs for the growth and
multiplication of agents, for example in malaria or Lyme disease.

• Inanimate mechanisms: When disease agents are spread by environmental

vehicles or by air, this is referred to as indirect transmission by inanimate
mechanisms. Anything may be a vehicle, including objects, food, water, milk, or
biological products.
o Food is a common vehicle for salmonella infections
o Water is the usual vehicle in cholera outbreaks
o Surgical instruments and implanted medical devices may be the vehicles
of staphylococcal infections

Indirect, airborne transmission is important in some respiratory diseases. This

occurs when very tiny particles of respiratory material become suspended in the
air (called aerosols). Such particles may remain suspended and stay infectious
for varying periods of time. They are particularly dangerous because their size (1
to 5 microns) allows them to be drawn deep into the lungs and retained.
Tuberculosis is spread this way, as is measles in certain settings such as
doctors’ offices. Air may also spread particles of various sizes from
contaminated soil, or from objects such as clothing and floors.

E. Portals of Entry

The portal of entry into the host is usually the same as the portal of exit from the
reservoir.

In some diseases, however, the exit and entry portals may differ. Example:
staphylococcal bacteria may escape from one person’s respiratory tract to infect
another person’s skin lesion. If that person is a foodhandler, the staphylococcal
bacteria may escape from the infected skin lesion, contaminate food where it can
incubate, and cause “food poisoning” in people eating the food.

F. Susceptible Host

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The last essential component in the chain of infection is the susceptible host.
Susceptibility is affected by:
• Genetic factors
• General resistance factors
• Specific acquired immunity

1. Genetic factors The role of genetic factors in susceptibility to infectious diseases is

not yet well understood. Genes do seem to play a role in the progression of HIV
disease, and perhaps in individuals’ susceptibility to meningococcal meningitis.

2. General resistance factors include many body functions that we take for granted.
Intact skin and mucous membranes help us resist disease. So do the gastric acid in our
stomachs, the cilia in our respiratory tracts, and the cough reflex.

3. Specific acquired immunity is the greatest influence on host susceptibility. This

immunity is specific to a particular disease agent, and it may be acquired naturally or
artificially.

• Natural immunity may be acquired by experiencing an infection, which is

called “active natural immunity.” Many diseases confer immunity after a
single infection, but many others do not. A single bout of measles or
chickenpox, for example, confers lifelong immunity to that disease. Influenza
and salmonella are examples of infections that do not confer immunity and
therefore may recur.

Another mechanism of natural immunity is the transfer of antibodies from the

mother to the newborn child, via the placenta and/or breast milk. This is
called “passive natural immunity,” and it diminishes after varying lengths of
time. It is very important in giving infants a good head start in life.

• Artificial immunity may be acquired through the use of vaccines, toxoids and
immune globulins.
Active immunity: Receiving a vaccine or toxoid stimulates “active”
immunity, since the recipient responds by producing his/her own
antibodies.
Passive immunity: Receiving an antitoxin or immune globulin confers
“passive” immunity, essentially by borrowing the antibodies of other
people. Passive immunity lasts for only a short time, while active
immunity usually lasts much longer, even for a lifetime.

III. The Infectious Disease Spectrum

By now, you probably appreciate the complexity of the factors that work together to
cause the transmission of infectious agents. The impact of disease agents on human
host populations is also a bit complex.

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If a large number of individuals are equally exposed to an infectious agent, they do not
all respond in the same manner. In fact, there may be a broad range of responses:
• Some do not become infected at all
• Some become infected but develop no symptoms
• Some become infected and develop mild or moderate symptoms
• Some become infected and develop severe symptoms
• Some die as a result of their infection

Part of this variation is due to the capacity of the agent to produce disease. Infection of
a healthy adult population with salmonella is likely to result in mostly inapparent or mild
cases, with only a few people with more severe symptoms and very few deaths. On the
other end of the spectrum, infections with rabies almost always result in severe illness
and death.

Part of the variation is due to differing levels of resistance of the hosts. If measles is
introduced into a highly immunized population, then most individuals do not become
infected. If measles is introduced into an unimmunized, nutritionally deprived
population, the spectrum shifts toward severe symptoms and a high death rate.

The existence of the infectious disease spectrum can make it challenging to find out the
extent of transmission in a particular population. Most cases with inapparent or mild
symptoms will never be discovered or reported, since these people will not seek health
care. So when moderate or severe cases are reported, they may represent the “tip of
the iceberg.”

Another challenge is posed by the fact that many diseases look alike. A variety of
agents may produce essentially similar clinical syndromes. For example, the signs and
symptoms of tuberculosis, other mycobacteria, and histoplasmosis may be the same.
However, effective treatment and control measures are very different for these three
diseases. This is why laboratory identification of the specific disease agent is so
important in any epidemiological investigation.

Summary

In order for infection and disease to occur in an individual, a process involving six
related components must occur. This process has been referred to as the “Chain of
Infection.”

To stop the spread of disease, one or more of these links must be broken.

The impact of disease agents on human host populations is complex. If a large number
of individuals are equally exposed to an infectious agent, there may be a broad range of
responses, from no infection at all to death.

Because of the infectious disease spectrum, it can be challenging to identify the extent
of transmission in a particular population.

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Many diseases share the same signs and symptoms, so laboratory studies are
important to identify the specific disease agent.

10
PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE III – Public Health Surveillance

This outline is provided as an aid to the student. It contains only the basic
content of the module. To view the supporting material such as graphics,
examples, etc. please see the module itself.

I. INTRODUCTION

Module III is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the following
objectives:
• Define public health surveillance and describe its components
• Demonstrate understanding of the purposes of surveillance and how it relates
to public health action
• Describe the two basic forms of surveillance and the most common sources of
surveillance information
• Demonstrate knowledge of how to evaluate and improve surveillance systems

II. WHAT IS PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE?

Surveillance is the continuous monitoring of the occurrence of a disease (or other

important health event) in a population. It consists of:
• Ongoing, systematic collection of health data
• Data analysis
• Interpretation of data,
• Dissemination of the information, AND
• Linking the health data to public health practice

Public Health Surveillance

• is an important part of assessment, one of the three core functions of public
health.
• takes many forms, depending on the disease(s) involved and the conditions
under which it is being done.
• may focus on the entire population, or on subpopulations within it.
• may be longstanding or temporary, or even intermittent.
• may be “high-tech” or very rudimentary.

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 Whatever form it takes, surveillance is essential to the practice of public health,
especially for infectious disease prevention and control.

The concept of public health surveillance grew out of the earlier practice of
medical surveillance, which is still done in some situations.
Medical Surveillance Public Health Surveillance
Close observation of people Always looks at populations,
exposed to a communicable rather than individuals
disease to detect symptoms early
and provide treatment or require
isolation

III. WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

SURVEILLANCE?

• To be effective, surveillance systems must involve

o public health agencies,
o healthcare providers, and
o the public
• Active cooperation is essential so that accurate, timely information can be
collected and acted upon.
• Communication and data must flow among healthcare providers and the
public, but only public health agencies can pull information together from a
variety of sources, analyze it and feed it back in a form that can guide action.

IV. WHY DO WE DO PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE?

A well-designed surveillance system can provide critical information for public

health action. Agencies use various kinds of surveillance data to:
1. Guide immediate action for cases of public health importance, such
as a rare disease or suspected bioterrorist agent
2. Describe and monitor health events and trends through
surveillance systems in their jurisdiction
o Who is at risk?
o When and where is disease occurring?
o What exposures or risk factors may be related to the disease?
o Is there an urgent problem developing, such as an outbreak?

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 o Is a new disease or health concern emerging?
3. Set priorities for the use of resources (time, expertise, technology and
money)
o To what activities should staff time and expertise be directed?
o How much money should be spent on a particular problem?
o Do we need to respond immediately to investigate and control a
problem in our community?
4. Assist in planning, implementing and evaluating public health
interventions and programs
o To which populations should we target interventions or control
measures?
o Are new prevention programs needed?
o How effective are our programs and control measures in reducing
disease occurrence?
5. Evaluate public policy
o Are current rules or laws protecting the public?
o Are new rules, laws, ordinances or other policies needed?
6. Generate questions and hypotheses that provide direction for
further research
o Why is this disease occurring in this specific population?
o Is the disease the result of an environmental exposure?
o Is this group of people especially susceptible to the disease?
o Has the disease agent changed somehow?

Let’s look at each of these uses of surveillance data in more detail.

1. Guiding immediate action for cases of public health importance.

• A good surveillance system serves as an “early warning” system for the
community’s health.
• When an unusual disease case occurs, the public health agency can
investigate immediately and implement control measures if needed to
prevent spread.
• For example, even a single case of anthrax, measles or diphtheria should
trigger a full-scale public health investigation.

2. Describing and monitoring health events and trends through

surveillance systems can allow us to:
• Detect sudden changes in disease occurrence and distribution.
o We may notice a sudden increase that could be an outbreak.

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 o Or a disease that previously occurred mainly in one group of people
may move to another
• Follow long-term trends and patterns of disease.
o Many diseases ebb and flow in cycles that vary by season or over
several years.
o Knowing this may help us interpret the current situation.
• Identify changes in agents and host factors.
o Many infectious agents change over time. (E.g., shifts in
predominant salmonella serotype by year, antibiotic resistant
gonorrhea].
o Data from laboratory scientists who monitor these characteristics can
be used to direct vaccine production, treatment, and other
prevention and control measures.

3. Set priorities for the use of resources.

• Surveillance data are very important in determining the best use of a public
health agency’s time, staff and budget.
o Which diseases or conditions have the greatest impact on the
population?
• Infectious disease trends may change quickly, sometimes even overnight,
and health agency resources must be flexible to respond effectively.
Example: a suspected bioterrorism incident or an outbreak of
foodborne illness may supersede other routine activities. In such a
situation, staff must be reassigned to:
intensify surveillance to identify other susceptible and
potentially exposed people
search for the source of the problem
design and implement control measures (environmental
controls, screening, immunization and/or treatment,
restriction of activities)
• If the outbreak is large, or the disease very serious, the agency’s
emergency response plan may need to be activated. In that case many
resources outside the agency can be brought into play.
• Surveillance data can also be used to identify when a public health problem
has been solved, so that resources can be redirected to other, more
pressing needs. However, if this is done too soon, the consequences can
be costly. Example: it may be tempting to cut resources for tuberculosis

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 control when the incidence goes down. This was done in the 1980s, and
the result was an upsurge in tuberculosis cases.

4. Assist in planning, implementing and evaluating public health

interventions and programs.
Information from ongoing surveillance systems helps us identify public health
problems and design programs to address them.
• In the planning stage, surveillance can pinpoint where a problem is
occurring and who is affected by it so that efforts can be directed to the
right area and the right people.
• In the implementation stage, good data can help persuade policymakers
and community members that a program or policy change is needed and
worth supporting.
• In the evaluation stage, surveillance data can help us determine the effect
of our efforts. If the program or intervention is working, then disease
incidence should go down.
EXAMPLES
a. When surveillance data showed that a new arbovirus, the West Nile Virus,
was spreading across the country, public health agencies developed plans to
prevent and control it. They tried several new approaches including:
• public education campaigns (billboards, radio spots) to promote the use
of mosquito protections, including DEET insect repellent
• public education and code enforcement activities to reduce mosquito
breeding sites by emptying/draining standing water
• community cleanup activities to reduce mosquito habitat
Agencies then evaluated the results of these efforts through surveys as well as
by continued, intensive surveillance activities.

b. Detailed surveillance data regarding HIV infection have guided community

planning for prevention programs.
• In the 1980s when AIDS first emerged, health education messages were
targeted toward the groups most heavily impacted by the epidemic, men
who have sex with men and injecting drug users.
• In the late 1990s, the data showed that HIV was beginning to infect
more women, especially minority women.
• Outreach and education programs were designed to reach out to
women, for example, by distributing gender and culture-appropriate
materials in places where women go, such as beauty shops.

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 5. Evaluate Public Policy
Public policies, such as laws, ordinances, and institutional policies, are
important public health interventions. Surveillance information can help
identify needed policy changes.

EXAMPLES
a. Immunization requirements have evolved as disease transmission patterns
change.
• School immunization rules were implemented and enforced to reduce
outbreaks of measles and rubella in schools.
• As more children entered childcare centers and homes, the transmission
of vaccine-preventable diseases among preschool children increased. In
the 1980s, immunization requirements for childcare attendance were
developed and incorporated into licensure requirements. Outbreaks in
licensed childcare settings have since become rare.
b. Standards for food protection are codified as state rules and local
ordinances. Inadequacies in these food codes were identified in the 1990s
through surveillance data, and the rules were strengthened.
• Required cooking temperatures for beef were changed because of E. coli
O157:H7 outbreaks.
• The rules on the transport and handling of fresh eggs were changed
because of outbreaks of Salmonella enteritidis.

6. Generate questions and hypotheses that provide direction for

further research.
• Surveillance data by themselves cannot answer questions about the
causes of illness.
• However, observation of the patterns of disease can help generate ideas
about causes and potential control measures.
• These ideas can be developed into research hypotheses that lead to new
knowledge in disease prevention and control.
EXAMPLES
a. Toxic shock syndrome (TSS)
• is a serious illness caused by certain toxin-producing strains of the
Staphylococcus aureus bacterium.
• It usually has a sudden onset of fever, chills, vomiting, diarrhea, muscle
aches and rash, and can rapidly progress to multisystem dysfunction.
About 5% of cases are fatal.
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 • An epidemic of TSS in women of childbearing age was detected through
public health surveillance in the late 1970s.
o Menstruating women and women using barrier contraceptives
such as intra-uterine devices (IUDs) were at highest risk.
o This observation led to further research on tampons, which found
that the fibers used in certain highly absorbent brands
encouraged bacterial growth.
o These brands were removed from the market, the epidemic
abated, and TSS incidence has declined ever since.
b. Vaccine policies may be adjusted as a result of research prompted by
surveillance findings.
• A puzzling upsurge in measles cases occurred in the late 1980s, in
Missouri and throughout the US, mainly in school-age children.
• This upsurge prompted CDC to study the children’s antibody levels, and
they found that immunity waned among those who had only had one
measles shot.
• Two doses of measles vaccine have been required for school attendance
since that time.

V. CONDUCTING PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE: THE FIVE

COMPONENTS

Our definition of surveillance consists of five components:

1. Ongoing, systematic collection of health data
2. Data analysis
3. Interpretation of data,
4. Dissemination of the information, AND
5. Linking the data to public health practice

Let’s look at each of these in more detail.

1. ONGOING, SYSTEMATIC COLLECTION OF HEALTH DATA How do we

get the information?

A. Legal Requirements

• Most surveillance involves the collection of personal information from medical

records.

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 o Healthcare providers can only share such information if the proper
legal framework is in place to authorize it.
o Under the federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act
(known as HIPAA), public health agencies have the right to collect
personal health information if state law authorizes them to do so.
o This right is known as the “public health exemption” from HIPAA.
Without this provision, public health surveillance would be much
more difficult.
• Missouri law requires the state Department of Health and Senior Services
(DHSS) to designate which diseases and conditions must be reported to public
health authorities and who must report (Revised Statutes of Missouri 192.020)
http://www.moga.mo.gov/statutes/c192.htm.
• Through the Code of State Regulations, local public health agencies are
designated to receive such information as well (19 CSR 20-20.010-20.080).
In the large metropolitan areas, there may also be local ordinances and rules
pertaining to disease reporting.
• Some key provisions of the Missouri reporting rules include:
a. Mandated Reporters. The following individuals and agencies are
required to report diseases:
o Physicians
o Physician’s assistants
o Nurses
o Hospitals
o Clinics
o Laboratories
o Other private or public institutions providing diagnostic testing,
screening or care to any person with any reportable disease or
condition
o Persons in charge of a public or private school, summer camp or
child or adult care facility

b. Disease Reporting Categories. There are several categories of

reportable diseases listed in 19 CSR 20-20.020, based on the urgency
of reporting and response. They are:
1. Diseases, findings, or agents that shall be reported immediately upon
knowledge or suspicion by telephone, facsimile or other rapid
communication.

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 o 1A: Selected high priority diseases, findings, or agents that occur
naturally, from accidental exposure, or as the result of a bioterrorism
event.
o 1B: Instances, clusters, or outbreaks of unusual disease or
manifestations of illness and clusters or instances of unexplained
deaths which appear to be the result of a terrorist act or the intentional
or deliberate release of biological, chemical, radiological, or physical
agents, including exposures through food, water, or air.
o 1C: Instances, clusters, or outbreaks or unusual, novel, and/or
emerging diseases or findings not otherwise named in this rule,
appearing to be naturally occurring, but posing a substantial risk to
public health and/or social and economic stability due to their ease of
dissemination or transmittal, associated mortality rates, or the need for
special public health actions to control.
2. Diseases, findings, or agents that shall be reported within one (1) day of
first knowledge or suspicion.
o 2A: Diseases, findings, or agents that occur naturally, or from
accidental exposure, or as a result of an undetected bioterrorism event.
o 2B: Diseases, findings, or adverse reactions that occur as a result of
inoculation to prevent smallpox.
3. Diseases, findings, or agents that shall be reported within three (3) days of
first knowledge or suspicion.
4. Diseases or findings that shall be reported weekly.
5. Diseases or findings that shall be reported quarterly.

The list of reportable diseases can be found at:

http://www.dhss.mo.gov/CommunicableDisease/reportablediseaselist2.pdf

c. Flexibility.
Missouri’s rules include the provision that any unusual outbreak of
disease must be reported.
o Allow healthcare providers to share information even if the
specific disease or condition isn’t on the official list.
o Is especially important for emerging infections, or outbreaks of
unknown cause including potential bioterrorist incidents.

d. Multiple entry points for information.

Reports may be made to the local public health agency where the
healthcare provider is located, or where the patient lives, or to the state
DHSS.
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 o Provides maximum flexibility for those reporting disease, in the
hope of minimizing missed cases.
o It means, however, that communication across health agency
jurisdictions is critical.

• The entire text of 19 CSR 20-20.020 may be viewed at:

http://www.sos.mo.gov/adrules/csr/current/19csr/19c20-20.pdf

• The mandated reporting rule has evolved over time and will continue to
do so.
o New categories of reporters may be added as the healthcare system
changes.
o New diseases may be added as they emerge into public health
importance, and old ones may be removed if they are no longer
significant threats.
o Sometimes old diseases take on new significance, as happened when
smallpox was added back to the list because of its potential use as a
bioterrorist agent.

• There are no penalties if a healthcare worker fails to comply with his/her

obligations under the disease reporting rules. For this reason, achievement of
voluntary compliance is very important. Constant efforts are needed to
educate healthcare providers about surveillance in order to keep the
information flowing.

• National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. The Centers for

Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) designate nationally notifiable diseases,
which can be viewed at:
www.cdc.gov/epo/dphsi/phs/infdis.htm#public. All of these diseases
are included on Missouri’s list. DHSS passes on reports of nationally notifiable
diseases (with no personal identifying information) to the national system.

B. Sources Of Surveillance Data For Infectious Diseases

There are many sources of data for surveillance purposes. Some of the main
ones are:
• Morbidity reports (mandated disease reports, laboratory test results, hospital
and clinic data)

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• Mortality reports (death certificates, medical examiner data)
• Surveillance systems for disease indicators (for example, animal rabies test
results, bird and horse West Nile Virus test results)
• Environmental data (laboratory test results on water, milk, and food supplies)
• Student and employee data (for example, school or work absenteeism)
• Drug and biologic utilization (for example, prescriptions and sales figures on
over-the-counter medications)
• Population-based surveys (for example, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance
System, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey)

C. Forms Of Surveillance

There are two forms of surveillance, passive and active.

1. Passive surveillance.
o Reports are initiated by the information source, such as a
physician, laboratory, or hospital.
o Traditional mandated disease reporting is based on this approach.
o The public health agencies put a system in place and then wait for
reports to come in by telephone, fax or mail.
The standard form for reporting in Missouri is the
CD-1 Form. Click here to view the form:
http://www.dhss.mo.gov/CommunicableDisease/index.html
o Passive reporting is the backbone of surveillance for many
diseases, because it is easy and inexpensive for the public health
agency.
o However, it can be cumbersome for the reporters, and
opportunities to report are often missed.
o Systems that depend solely on passive reporting usually
undercount disease incidence.

2. Active surveillance.
o The public health agency initiates contact with the reporting
sources on a regular basis (daily, weekly, etc.).
o Contacts may be made by telephone, electronically, or through
on-site record review by public health agency staff.
o With active surveillance, reports are solicited even if they indicate
zero disease activity for that time period.

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 o Active surveillance often takes the form of sentinel surveillance.
This can involve regular contact with a selected set of sentinel
sites or providers, or using animals or insect vectors as “sentinels”
for a particular disease.
o Electronic medical records systems have opened up many new
possibilities for active surveillance.
Example: DHSS is developing a process that will allow hospital
laboratories to submit electronic files of test results directly into
the Missouri Health Surveillance Information System (MOHSIS)
computer system. The data will then be processed and alert
messages will be sent to local public health agency staff. This is
expected to reduce the data entry workload and increase the
completeness, accuracy and timeliness of laboratory reports.

D. Modern Surveillance Practice

Modern surveillance practice combines active and passive methods to get the
most complete picture possible.
Example:
Influenza surveillance in Missouri includes the following information:
• Summary case counts collected by local public health agencies (LPHAs)
from sentinel healthcare providers. This information is compared with
reporting from previous time periods to track the seasonal epidemic.
• Weekly reports from healthcare providers (34 healthcare providers in 2005)
who participate in CDC’s US Influenza Sentinel Provider Surveillance
Network (US ISPSN). They report the number of patients they have seen
that week, broken down by age group, and how many of them showed
influenza-like illness. This information is compared to a national baseline.
• Results of laboratory tests performed by the State Public Health Laboratory,
and of more specialized testing performed on some isolates by the CDC
laboratory (passive surveillance). This information is used with other test
results from around the world, to determine influenza vaccine strains for
the coming year.
All of these sources of surveillance information are combined into a weekly
report posted on the DHSS website.

Example:

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 For vector-borne diseases, some combination of active and passive
surveillance of both humans and animals may be needed. Surveillance for
arboviruses such as West Nile Virus (WNV) is a good example. In Missouri,
arboviral surveillance includes humans, horses, birds and mosquitoes.
• Dead birds are collected and submitted to DHSS by (LPHAs) for laboratory
testing. This may be the only early warning that local spread of the WNV
virus is occurring.
• Mosquito trapping is the best tool to quantify the intensity of virus
transmission in an area. In 2004 over a dozen LPHAs (covering 59% of the
Missouri population) trapped mosquitoes, collected them, and either
shipped them for testing or tested them locally and provided the results to
DHSS.
• Equine (horse) surveillance is a passive system that relies on
veterinarians to report. Equine WNV is rare now that a vaccine is in wide
use.
• Active surveillance for human cases. During the peak of WNV activity
in 2001-2003, sentinel healthcare providers were contacted by LPHAs at
least two times per week.
• Passive surveillance for human cases. This is mostly laboratory-
based, with the majority of reports coming from the State Public Health
Laboratory.

2. DATA ANALYSIS How do we make sense of it?

• Before surveillance data can be interpreted, they must be organized and

analyzed.
• Computer systems such as MOHSIS are frequently used to compile the
information and analyze it.
• We must always take care to clearly define the questions we are trying to
answer through data analysis, to make sure the results are useful for public
health action.
• In some circumstances, for example the very early stages of investigating a
suspected outbreak, hand tallies of information about suspected cases may
be useful.

A. Determine the number of cases.

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 o Every reportable disease has an official case definition that is used to
determine whether a case should be “counted” in the surveillance
system.
o The case definition is usually a combination of symptoms and laboratory
test results, and is defined by CDC for nationally notifiable diseases.
o Case definitions reflect different levels of certainty. There are
definitions for suspect vs. probable vs. confirmed cases.
o Each case reported to the system should be evaluated in relation to the
case definition, as a basic quality assurance mechanism.

B. Calculate incidence rates.

o Rates take into account the size of the population so comparisons can
be made across geographic areas.
o By using rates, the incidence in one county can be compared to state or
national incidence of the disease.
o For more information about rates, see Module IV, Statistical Measures.

C. Analyze the data by person, place and time.

o Person includes variables such as age, sex, and race, as well as risk
factors such as childcare or food handler status.
o Place may be a nation, state, county, city or even zip code or census
tract.
o Time is usually represented as date of onset of illness, grouped by day,
week, month or year.
o More detailed information about these epidemiologic variables will be
given in Module V, Displaying and Interpreting Epidemiologic Variables.

D. Current surveillance data are compared with some expected

value to identify how they differ and to assess their importance.
One way to do this is by comparing the incidence rate in the current
time period with past incidence in the same jurisdiction. This may be
incidence as of the same time last year, or a measure of the “usual”
incidence, such as a five-year median (see Module IV, Statistical
Measures).

E. It is also useful to compare with other jurisdictions.

Is the current incidence rate in County A significantly higher than that in
surrounding counties, or the state or national average? If so, that may
indicate a problem that needs to be followed up.
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 F. Spatial analysis may be helpful.
o Modern technology such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can
create very informative analyses.
o The locations of cases can be viewed in relation to environmental
features and/or population characteristics.

3. INTERPRETATION OF DATA What can we learn from all these

numbers?

If the analysis shows that the incidence of a disease is different from what you would
expect, then further investigation should be done.
• For some diseases, this is true even if the number of cases is small.
Example: even a single case of a potential bioterrorist agent (such as
anthrax) or a vaccine-preventable disease (such as measles) should be
investigated.
• There are several possible explanations for changes in surveillance data.
Explanations that should be considered include (but are not limited to ):
o An outbreak
o An intentional exposure (such as a bioterrorist attack)
o A newly emerging infection
o Improved diagnosis (new laboratory test, increased physician awareness)
o Increased awareness of the disease and/or the need to report it
o A gradual increase or decrease in incidence due to environmental or
population changes, or changes in the disease agent
o A disease following its natural seasonal or “secular” (years-long) cycle
o Changes in the surveillance system (new data collection system, loss of
a reporting source, addition of a new source, change in case definition,
etc.)

4. DISSEMINATION OF THE INFORMATION Sharing the Results

• The purpose of sharing surveillance information is to inform those who need

to know, and to motivate those who need to do something.
Examples:
keeping healthcare providers informed about current trends can
help them diagnose and treat their patients better.
Keeping policymakers informed can assist them in allocating
resources and updating rules, ordinances and laws.
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 And keeping public health professionals and administrators up to
date will help them design and carry out better programs.
• Surveillance data generally flow “up” through the public health system, from
local reporters to local public health agencies, to DHSS, to CDC, to the World
Health Organization (WHO).
• As with any good communication, the information must be tailored to the
audience.
o Public health workers may need more detailed information than other
groups.
o In general, reports should be brief and clear, and should highlight the
information most important to the reader.
o Examples of reports issued by Missouri may be found at
http://www.dhss.mo.gov/Influenza/Reports.html
o Examples of reports issued by CDC may be found at
www.cdc.gov/mmwr.

5. LINKS TO PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE Information for Action

• The only reason to carry out public health surveillance is to use the
information to improve the health of the public.
• Many of the ways this is done were discussed earlier in the section, “Why Do
We Do Public Health Surveillance?”

VI. EVALUATION AND IMPROVEMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH

SURVEILLANCE

• An efficient, effective public health surveillance system is essential to protect

the public’s health.
o Because disease agents, host factors, the environment and the
healthcare system are constantly changing, we must continuously assess
and improve our surveillance systems.
o A periodic evaluation can provide information for improvement.
• Probably the most important question to ask in evaluating a surveillance
system is: “How useful is it?” Some ways to look at usefulness are:
o Does the public health surveillance system contribute to the prevention
and control of diseases?

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 o Does it contribute to an improved understanding of the public health
implications of diseases (numbers of people affected, severity of illness,
burden of hospitalization, etc.)?
o Can it help determine that a disease that was previously thought to be
unimportant is actually important?
o Does it provide data for performance measurement, including health
indicators used for assessing community needs and evaluating health
programs?
• It may be helpful to list and describe the actions taken as a result of analysis
and interpretation of the data from the system, and to identify who has used
the information to make decisions and take actions.

CDC has identified the attributes of a good surveillance system. They

are:
♦ Simplicity. Is the system simple in structure and easy to operate? Are there
steps in the process that could be combined or eliminated? Surveillance
systems should be as simple as possible while still meeting their objectives.
The simpler the system, the more acceptable and timely it is likely to be.
Simpler systems also take fewer resources to operate.
♦ Flexibility. Can the system adapt to changing information needs or operating
conditions with little additional time, personnel, or allocated funds? Does the
system use standard data formats (e.g., in electronic data interchange) that
can be easily integrated with other systems?
♦ Data quality. Is the information in the system complete and valid? One easy
way to check this is to examine the percentage of "unknown" or "blank"
responses to items on surveillance forms. However, a full assessment might
require a special study in some cases.
♦ Acceptability. Are people and organizations willing to participate in the
surveillance system?
♦ Sensitivity. What proportion of actual cases are detected by the surveillance
system? This may require a check against other data sources, such as hospital
discharge data or a laboratory record review. Can the system monitor changes
in the numbers over time, and detect outbreaks?
♦ Predictive value positive. What proportion of reported cases actually have the
disease under surveillance? This can be assessed by looking at how many of
the reported cases meet the case definition, or how many are eventually
classified as confirmed.

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 ♦ Representativeness. Does the system accurately describe the occurrence of the
disease over time and its distribution in the population by place and person?
Or is it “skewed” toward certain age groups, ethnic groups, geographic areas,
or healthcare providers?
♦ Timeliness. How quickly does the system receive and process information?
This can be assessed by looking at the speed between steps in the system.
♦ Stability. How reliable is the system (reliability is the ability to collect, manage,
and provide data properly without failure). Is the system operational when it
is needed?

By evaluating these attributes, we can identify ways to improve the system. For
more complete information about these criteria and recommended methods
for evaluation of surveillance systems, go to
www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5013a1.htm.

Limitations Of Disease Reporting Systems

o It is important to remember that no formal system can take the place of
good relationships and communication networks in a community.
o There is no substitute for good collegial relationships among the public
health agency, healthcare providers, and other key informants such as
the school system.
o Time spent building those relationships can help assure that the public
health agency is kept “in the loop” when problems occur.

18
PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE IV – STATISTICAL MEASURES

Much of this module was adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) “Principles of Epidemiology, Second Edition, An Introduction to
Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics.”

Please note: Because of formatting constraints, the formulas in the outline may
not appear in correct mathematical format, however, they do appear correctly in
the course module.

I. INTRODUCTION
Module IV is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the following
objectives:
• Define the most common statistical frequency measures used in infectious
disease epidemiology
• Construct a frequency distribution
• Calculate and interpret the following statistical measures:
Ratios
Proportions
Incidence rates, including attack and secondary attack rates
Prevalence
Mortality rates
Relative risk and odds ratio
• Choose and apply the appropriate statistical measures

II. HOW DO WE USE STATISTICAL MEASURES IN

EPIDEMIOLOGY?

• Statistics are used to summarize the data collected through disease

surveillance or an outbreak investigation, so we can learn from the data.
Calculating statistics helps us to:
o describe risk
o make comparisons among communities and smaller definable groups
o identify high-risk groups
o develop hypotheses about the cause(s) of disease
• Why do we need to describe and compare risk?
o Differences in risk among different populations can provide clues
for investigation of what caused one group to have a higher risk.
o If causes can be identified, then perhaps prevention and control
measures can be identified too.

1
 • The most common statistical measures used in field epidemiology are
“frequency measures,” which are simply ways of counting cases and
comparing their characteristics. In contrast with statistics used in
epidemiological research, frequency measures are relatively easy to
calculate and use.

III. FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS

• When we collect data about disease cases, we must put them in some
kind of order. The most basic way to do this is to organize a “line listing”.
Example: http://www.dhss.mo.gov/CDManual/CDsec30.pdf (scroll down to
page 77).
• A line listing is actually a simple database, in which each row represents a
case of the disease we are investigating. Each column contains
information about one characteristic, called a “variable.”
• Look at the data in Table 1
Table 1
Neonatal Listeriosis, General Hospital A, Costa Rica, 1989
Culture Symptom Delivery Delivery Admitting
ID Sex Date Date DOB Type Site Outcome Symptoms
CS F 6/2 6/2 6/2 Vaginal Del Rm Lived Dyspnea
CT M 6/8 6/8 6/2 C-section Oper Rm Lived Fever
WG F 6/15 6/15 6/8 Vaginal Emer Rm Died Dyspnea
PA F 6/15 6/12 6/8 Vaginal Del Rm Lived Fever
SA F 6/15 6/15 6/11 C-section Oper Rm Lived Pneumonia
HP F 6/22 6/20 6/14 C-section Oper Rm Lived Fever
SS M 6/22 6/21 6/14 Vaginal Del Rm Lived Fever
JB F 6/22 6/18 6/15 C-section Oper Rm Lived Fever
BS M 6/22 6/20 6/15 C-section Oper Rm Lived Pneumonia
JG M 6/23 6/19 6/16 Forceps Del Rm Lived Fever
NC M 7/21 7/21 7/21 Vaginal Del Rm Died Dyspnea
Abbreviations:
Vaginal = vaginal delivery
Del Rm = delivery room
Oper Rm = operating room
Emer Rm = emergency room

o How many of the cases were male? We can easily pick out that
information because there are only a few cases.
o But with a larger database, we cannot get that information at a
glance. We must summarize variables into tables called
“frequency distributions.”

• A frequency distribution
o shows the values a variable can take, and
o the number of people or records with each value.

2
 o Example: suppose we are investigating an outbreak in an
elementary school. We could construct a frequency table that
shows how many of the ill children were in each classroom.
Table 2
Distribution of cases by classroom
Brown School, Missouri, June 2005
Classroom Number of Cases
101 25
102 43
103 32
104 0
105 8
106 2
Total 110

Please notice some key points about the table format:

o All possible values of the variable, in this case all classrooms, are
listed, even if there were no cases for some values.
o Each column is properly labeled.
o The total is given in the bottom row.
Now we can tell at a glance which rooms were most affected, and which
were not affected at all.

• Variables
o The values of a variable may be
numbers (for example, number of tacos eaten);
an ordered numerical scale (for example, age); or,
categories (for example, ill or well), called a “nominal scale”
because the categories are named.
o In epidemiology we often deal with variables that have only two
categories, like alive or dead, ill or well, did or did not eat the potato
salad.
o Any of these types of data may be summarized in a frequency
distribution (See Table 3, which shows a variable with only two
possible values).

Table 3
Influenza vaccination status among residents
Nursing Home A, Missouri, December 2005
Vaccinated? Number
Yes 76
No 125
Total 201

3
IV. RATIOS, PROPORTIONS AND RATES

• Three kinds of frequency measures are used with two-category variables

(also called dichotomous variables). These frequency measures are
o Ratios
o Proportions, and
o Rates.
• Before you learn about specific measures, it is important to understand the
relationship between the three types of measures and how they differ. All
three measures are based on the same formula:

Ratio, proportion, rate = x/y x 10ⁿ

o In this formula, x and y are the two quantities that are being
compared.
o The formula shows that x is divided by y.
o 10ⁿ is a constant that we use to transform the result of the division
into a uniform quantity.
o The size of 10ⁿ may equal 1, 10, 100, 1000 and so on depending
on the value of n.
Example:

10² = 10 x 10 = 100
10³ = 10 x 10 x 10 = 1000
10⁵ = 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 100,000

A. Ratios:
• A ratio is used to compare the occurrence of a variable in two different
groups.
• These may be two completely independent groups, or one may be
included in the other.
• For example, we could compare the sex of children attending an
immunization clinic in either of the following ways:

1) female or 2) female
male all

In the first example, x (female) is completely independent of y (male). In

the second example, x (female) is included in y (all). This second type of
ratio, called a proportion, is examined in more detail in the next section of
this module.

4
B. Proportions:
• The second type of ratio, in which x is part of y, is also called a proportion
(as in the previous (female/all) example).
• Proportions are usually expressed as percentages.

Examples

Independent x and y:
During the first 9 months of national surveillance for eosinophilia-myalgia
syndrome (EMS), CDC received 1,068 case reports that specified sex;
893 cases were in females, 175 in males. Here is the method for
calculating the female-to-male ratio for EMS.

1. Define x and y: x = cases in females

y = cases in males

2. Identify x and y: x = 893

y = 175

3. Set up the ratio x/y: 893/175

4. Reduce the fraction so that one value equals 1. Female to male =

893/175 = 5.1/1

5. Express the ratio in one of the following ways: 5.1 to 1, or 5.1:1, or

5.1/1

Thus, there were just over 5 female EMS patients for each male EMS
patient reported to CDC.

x included in y:
Based on the same data, here is the method for calculating the
proportion of EMS cases that were male.

1. Define x and y: x = cases in males

y = all cases

2. Identify x and y: x = 175

y = 1,068

3. Set up the ratio x/y: 175/1,068

4. Reduce the fraction so that one value equals 1. Divide the smaller
number by the larger number: 175/1,068 = 0.16/1

5
 5. Proportions are usually expressed as percentages, so the value of the
constant (10ⁿ) = 10² = 100:
0.16 X 100 = 16 (16%)

Thus, 16% of the reported EMS cases were in males.

C. Rates:
• The third type of frequency measure used with two-category
(dichotomous) variables is a rate.
• Rates have the added dimension of time. Rates measure the occurrence
of an event in a population over time.
• The basic formula for a rate is:

Rate = number of cases occurring during a given time period x 10ⁿ

population at risk during the same time period

• Rates are always specific to a particular population. They reflect

groupings of people based on time, place and person.
o Time: a specific year, month, week, day or hour
o Place: country, state, county, city, township, school, institution, area
o Person: age, sex, membership in some group or class
• Rates take into account the size of the population, so comparisons can be
made across different population groups.
o By using rates instead of raw numbers, the occurrence of disease
in one group can be fairly compared with another.
o Example: males with females; one county with another; Missouri
with Arkansas or the US.
• To calculate a rate, we must have an estimate of the population at risk
during a specific time period for the denominator.
o Ratios and proportions do not require this.
o Earlier, we calculated ratios and proportions of EMS cases without
knowing the number of people at risk of EMS.
o Rates may be harder to get, because accurate denominator data
may not be available for small, localized population groups.

To summarize:
o All three of these frequency measures are calculated in basically
the same way. In practice, we use:
a ratio to compare two independent groups,
a proportion to compare one group with a larger one to
which it belongs, and
a rate to measure an event in a population over time.
o Ratios, proportions, and rates are used in infectious disease
epidemiology to describe morbidity (disease) and mortality
(death).

6
V. MORBIDITY FREQUENCY MEASURES

• Several standard measures are used to measure and describe the

frequency of disease.
• Each measure has its appropriate uses, depending on the situation and
the information available to the epidemiologist.
• The two main types of rates are:
o incidence
o prevalence.

A. Incidence Rates
• Incidence rates are the most common way of measuring and comparing
the frequency of disease in populations.
• Incidence is a measure of risk.
• When Population A has a higher incidence of a disease than Population B,
we can say that Population A has a higher risk of developing the disease
than Population B. If it is a lot higher, we could say that Population A is a
high-risk group for that disease.
• Table 4 shows the three types of incidence rates we will study, along with
their formulas. We will discuss each of these in more detail.

Table 4
Frequently Used Measures of Morbidity
Expressed per
Measure Numerator (x) Denominator (y) Number at Risk
(10ⁿ)
Incidence # new cases of a Average population Varies:
Rate specified disease during time interval 10ⁿ where
reported during a n = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
given time interval
Attack Rate # new cases of a Population at start Usually a
specified disease of the epidemic percentage:
reported during an period 10ⁿ where
epidemic period n=2
Secondary # new cases of a Size of contact Usually a
Attack Rate specified disease population at risk percentage:
among contacts of 10ⁿ where
known cases n=2

We will discuss each of these in more detail.

7
1) Incidence
The basic incidence rate (sometimes called just incidence) is a measure of the
frequency with which a disease occurs in a population over a period of time. The
formula for calculating an incidence rate is:

Incidence Rate = new cases occurring during a given time period X 10ⁿ
population at risk during the same time period

• The numerator (x)

o should include only new cases of the disease that occurred during
the specified period.
o should not include cases that occurred or were diagnosed earlier.
o This is very important when working with chronic infectious
diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria and HIV.

• The denominator (y) is the population at risk.

o This means that the people included in the denominator should be
able to develop the disease in question during the time period
covered. In practice, we usually use census data for the
denominator.
o The denominator should also represent the population from which
the cases in the numerator arose. The population may be defined
by geographic area (e.g., St. Francois County) or by membership in
a specific group (e.g., employee of Company X, student at School
Y). If we are studying a specific group such as students in a
school or residents in a long term care facility, we should use a
census of that population for an exact denominator.

• Any value of n may be used in calculating incidence.

o The epidemiologist should always make it clear what n value was
used. National surveillance systems use a value of 10⁵ or 100,000.
o A good rule of thumb is to choose a value for 10ⁿ so that the
smallest rate calculated is a small whole number (for example,
4.2/100, not 0.42/1,000 or 0.042/10,000). This is just easier for the
reader to understand.
o When comparing two incidence rates, always be sure that the same
value of n was used in calculating both rates.

Disease incidence rates imply a change over time, from health to disease. So
the period of time must be specified. For surveillance purposes this is usually
one calendar year, but any time period may be used as long as it is stated.

Example
In 2003, 335,104 new cases of gonorrhea were reported among the US
civilian population. The 2003 mid-year US civilian population was estimated to
be 290,788,976. For these data we will use a value of 10⁵ for 10ⁿ.  We will

8
calculate the 2003 gonorrhea incidence rate for the US civilian population using
these data.
1. Define x and y : x = new cases of gonorrhea in US civilians during 2003
y = US civilian population in 2003
2. Identify x, y, and 10ⁿ: x = 335,104
y = 290,788,976
10ⁿ = 10⁵ = 100,000
3. Calculate (x/y) x 10ⁿ:

335,104 x 10⁵  = .001152 x 100,000 = 115.2 per 100,000 or

290,788,976
approximately 1 reported case per 1,000 population

The numerator of this incidence rate

• reflects new cases of gonorrhea that occurred or were diagnosed
during the specified period.
• does not include cases that occurred or were diagnosed earlier.
The denominator is the population at risk.
• it represents the population from which the gonorrhea cases arose,
in this case the US civilian population.
Notice that the numerator was limited to civilian cases. Therefore, we had to
restrict the denominator to civilians as well.

2) Attack Rate
An attack rate is a specific type of incidence rate. It is calculated for a narrowly
defined population observed for a limited time, such as during an outbreak. It is
usually expressed as a percentage, so 10ⁿ equals 100.

For a defined population (the population at risk), during a limited time period:

Attack Rate = # of new cases among the population during the period X 100
population at risk at the beginning of the period

• The attack rate is a measure of the probability or risk of becoming a

case.

• Remember, attack rates have some special characteristics:

o Highly specific by “person” variables
o Limited by “place” variables
o Time period is usually brief
o Usually expressed as a percentage

Example
Of 75 persons who attended a church picnic, 46 subsequently developed
a gastrointestinal illness. To calculate the attack rate of GI illness we first
define the numerator and denominator:

9
 x = Cases of GI illness occurring within the incubation period
for GI illness among persons who attended the picnic = 46
y = Number of persons at the picnic = 75
Then, the attack rate for GI illness is 46 x 100 = 61%
75
In this example, we could say that among persons who attended the
picnic, the probability of developing GI illness was 61%, or the risk of
developing GI illness was 61%.

• Attack rates are usually calculated several times during the course of an
outbreak investigation. The first time, early in the outbreak, the attack rate
might be calculated as follows:

Attack Rate = # of new cases in the community during the period X 100
the population of the community

o This would help us see whether the current situation is “unusual”

compared with other time periods or communities.
o In the course of an investigation, attack rates will be recalculated as
new cases are identified, diagnoses are confirmed, and other
information comes to light.
o Attack rates may be needed for various subgroups within the
community.

• Selecting the appropriate numerators and denominators is very important

and can be a challenge.
o Ideally, the denominator should include the smallest definable area
or group that contains all the known cases.
o In practice, however, accurate population counts may not be
available.
o For example, we may not be able to find out exactly how many
people ate in a particular restaurant during a specified time.

3. Secondary Attack Rate

A secondary attack rate measures the frequency of new cases of a disease
among the contacts of known cases. This can be very important for diseases
that are spread from person to person, such as tuberculosis, measles,
shigellosis, and varicella. The formula is:

Secondary = # cases among contacts of primary cases during the period X 100
Attack Rate total number of contacts

• Secondary attack rates are often calculated for households.

o To calculate the number of household contacts (denominator),
subtract the number of primary cases from the total number living in
the households.

10
 o In some situations, contacts in other settings may be investigated
(for example, residents of a homeless shelter, or people who work
in a specific building). The calculation is done in the same way as
for household contacts.

Example
Seven cases of hepatitis A occurred among 70 children attending a
childcare center. Each infected child came from a different family. The
total number of persons in the 7 affected families was 32. One incubation
period later, 5 family members of the 7 infected children also developed
hepatitis A. We will calculate the attack rate in the childcare center and
the secondary attack rate among family contacts of those cases.
1. Attack rate in childcare center:
x = cases of hepatitis A among children in childcare center = 7
y = number of children enrolled in the childcare center = 70

Attack rate = _x x 100 = _7_ x 100 = 10%

y 70
2. Secondary attack rate (refer to Figure 1):
x = cases of hepatitis A among family contacts of children with
hepatitis A = 5
y = number of persons at risk in the families (total number of
family members – children already infected) = 32 – 7 = 25

Secondary attack rate = x X 100 = _5_ X 100 = 20%

y 25
B. Rate Ratio is another tool that is helpful for comparing rates between groups.

A rate ratio compares the rates of disease in two groups that differ by
demographic characteristics or exposure history. The rate for the group of
primary interest is divided by the rate for a comparison group.

Rate Ratio = rate for group of primary interest X 1

rate for comparison group

Rate ratios may be calculated for incidence rates (including attack rates) or for
mortality rates, discussed later.

Example
The Association of Interested Persons held their annual conference during
the first week in June. There were two events: a dinner meeting on
Wednesday evening (75 attendees), and a luncheon awards ceremony
on Thursday at noon (60 attendees). Twenty (20) of the 75 Wednesday
dinner participants subsequently developed signs and symptoms of
gastrointestinal illness; 5 of the 60 luncheon participants became ill.
Calculate the rate ratio to help determine which event may have been the
source of the illness. The rate ratio is calculated as follows:

11
 1. Calculate the attack rate for the dinner meeting:
x = number of ill persons attending the dinner meeting
y = number of persons attending the dinner meeting
attack rate = (x/y) x 100 = (20/75) x 100 = 27%
2. Calculate the attack rate for the luncheon:
x = number of ill persons attending the luncheon
y = number of persons attending the luncheon
attack rate = (x/y) x 100 = (5/60) x 100 = 8%
3. Calculate the rate ratio:
Rate ratio = rate for group of primary interest x 1 = (27/8) x 1 = 3.4
rate for comparison group
The dinner meeting attendees were 3.4 times more likely to become ill
than those who attended the luncheon.

Now that you know how to calculate and use each type of morbidity rate, you
have mastered some important tools for investigating infectious diseases.

C. Prevalence (Prevalence Rates)

Prevalence is the proportion of people in a population who have a particular

disease at a specified point in time, or over a specified period of time.
• The numerator includes not only new cases, but also old cases (people
who remained ill during the specified point or period in time). A case is
counted in prevalence until death or recovery occurs.
• This makes prevalence different from incidence, which includes only new
cases in the numerator.
• Prevalence is most useful for measuring the burden of chronic diseases
such as tuberculosis, malaria and HIV in a population. The formula for
calculating prevalence is:

Prevalence = all new and pre-existing cases during a time period X 10ⁿ
population during the same time period

Point vs. Period Prevalence

The amount of disease present in a population obviously changes over time.
Sometimes, we want to know how much of a particular disease is present in a
population at a single point in time, a sort of snapshot view.

• Point Prevalence: For example, we may want to find out the prevalence
of TB in Community A today. To do that, we need to calculate the point
prevalence on a given date.
o The numerator would include all known TB patients who live in
Community A that day. That information could be determined from
a TB case registry.
o The denominator would be the population of Community A that day.

12
 o Example: A review of patients reported to the tuberculosis registry
in Midville revealed that as of July 1, 2005 there were 35 cases that
had not yet completed therapy. The most recent population
estimate for Midville was 57,763. The prevalence of TB in Midville
on July 1, 2005 was:
___35____ X 10,000 = 6.1 per 10,000 people
57,763
o Point prevalence is useful in comparing different points in time to
help determine whether an outbreak is occurring. In this case, we
could also calculate point prevalence of TB for July 1, 2004, July 1,
1995 or other relevant points of comparison.

• Period Prevalence: At other times, we want to know how much of a

particular disease is present in a population over a longer period. We
would use period prevalence to do that.
o Period prevalence is calculated in exactly the same way as point
prevalence, except the numerator is the number of people who had
the disease at any time during a specified time period.
o Period prevalence can be calculated for a week, month, year,
decade, or any other specified length of time.
o Example: Midville’s TB registry indicates that during 2004, there
were 89 new and pre-existing TB cases. The prevalence of TB in
Midville in 2004 was:
__89____ X 10,000 = 15.4 per 10,000 people
57,763
o When comparing prevalence figures:
be sure that the length of the time period is the same. The
prevalence of TB in Midville in 2004 should only be
compared with the prevalence during other one-year time
periods (2003, 1994, etc.).
It cannot be compared with the point prevalence on July 1,
2005, or with the period prevalence during a week or month.
Prevalence may be compared among different diseases or
different populations, as long as the same length of time is
used.

Example: Comparing Prevalence and Incidence

Two surveys were done of the same community 12 months apart. Of 5,000
people surveyed the first time, 25 had antibodies to histoplasmosis. Twelve
months later, 35 had antibodies, including the original 25. We will calculate the
prevalence at the second survey, and compare the prevalence with the 1-year
incidence.
1. Prevalence at the second survey:
x = antibody positive at second survey = 35
y = population = 5,000
(x/y) x 10ⁿ = 35/5,000 x 1,000 = 7 per 1,000

13
 2. Incidence during the 12-month period:
x = number of new positives during the 12-month period = 35 – 25 = 10
y = population at risk = 5,000 – 25 (already infected) = 4,975
(x/y) x 10ⁿ = 10/4,975 x 1,000 = 2 per 1,000
Prevalence is based on both incidence (risk) and duration of disease.
High prevalence of a disease within a population may reflect high risk, or it may
reflect prolonged survival without cure. Conversely, low prevalence may indicate
low incidence, a rapidly fatal process, or rapid recovery.

VI. MORTALITY FREQUENCY MEASURES

• Mortality rates measure the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined

population during a specified interval.
• There are several specific kinds of mortality rates, but we will focus only
on the ones that are used most often in infectious disease epidemiology.
• To calculate a simple mortality rate, we need to know the number of
deaths in a given population during a specified time period, and the size of
the population in which the deaths occurred. The basic formula is:

Mortality rate = deaths occurring during a given time period X 10ⁿ

size of the population in which the deaths occurred

The most commonly used values for 10ⁿ are 1,000 and 100,000.

A. Crude Mortality Rate

• The crude mortality rate is the mortality rate from all causes of death for a
population during a specified time period.
• The denominator is the population at the mid-point of the time period.
• For example, the crude mortality rate for Missouri in 2003 was 896 deaths
per 100,000 people.

B. Cause-specific Mortality Rate

• This is the mortality rate from a specified cause for a population during a
specified time period.
• The numerator is the number of deaths from that cause, and the
denominator remains the size of the population at the mid-point of the
time period.
• For example, the tuberculosis death rate for the US in 2002 was 0.3 per
100,000 (or 3 per 1,000,000).

C. Other Specific Mortality Rates

• Specific mortality rates may be calculated for population subgroups
defined by age, sex, race, or other demographic factors.
• Combinations of factors are often used.

14
 • For example, the mortality rate attributed to HIV among 25-to-44-year-olds
in the US in 1987 was:

HIV Mortality = 9,280 deaths X 100,000 = 12 per 100,000

Rate 77,600,000 aged 25-44 yrs

This is an example of a cause- and age-specific mortality rate.

VII. RELATIVE RISK AND ODDS RATIO

The last two types of frequency measures we will study are relative risk (also
called risk ratio) and odds ratio. These statistics are used in outbreak
investigations and will be discussed again in the workshop portion of this course.

A. Relative Risk or Risk Ratio (RR)

• Compares the risk of disease or death in two groups.
o The two groups may be defined by a demographic factor such as
sex (for example, male vs. female).
o More commonly, they are defined by a difference in their exposure
to a suspected risk factor for disease (for example, ate the potato
salad or didn’t).
o Often, the group of primary interest is labeled “exposed,” and the
comparison group is called “unexposed.”
o The group of primary interest goes into the numerator, and the
comparison group is the denominator.

Risk Ratio = Risk for group of primary interest X 1

(Relative Risk) Risk for comparison group

• “Risk” is defined as an incidence rate or attack rate of the disease in each

group. To calculate RR, a two-by-two table is set up as shown:

Table 5
Number of Cases of Disease X by Sex, Smallville, 2004
Disease X
Yes No Total
Female a 46 b 1,438 1,484
Male c 18 d 1,401 1,419

The term “two-by-two” refers to the two variables (sex and disease status),
each with two categories. The outcome (illness or not) is shown at the top
of the table and exposure or risk factor is shown along the left side. Note
the letters assigned to each cell of the table (a-d). They are important in
calculating the risk in each group.

15
 Example
Using the data in the table above, we can calculate the relative risk of
Disease X for females vs. males. First, we must calculate the risk of
illness among females and among males:

Risk among females = a = 46_ = .031 x 100 = 3.1%

(incidence) a+b 1,484

Risk among males = c_ = 18_ = .013 x 100 = 1.3%

(incidence) c+d 1,419

To calculate the RR for females vs. males, females are considered the
group of primary interest and males are the comparison group. The
formula is:

Risk ratio = 3.1% = 2.4

(Relative Risk) 1.3%

So we can say that the risk of Disease X in females appears to be 2.4

times higher than the risk in males. If the RR is 1.0, that means the risk of
disease is equal in the two groups. If the RR is greater than 1.0, then the
group of interest has a higher risk of disease. If the RR is less than 1.0,
then the group of interest has a lower risk of disease.

• However, before we can interpret RR figures, they must be subjected to a

test of statistical significance such as the Chi square or some variation of
it. This helps us judge the probability that the result could have occurred
by chance alone. A probability of less than 5%, expressed as p<.05, is
commonly used as a cutoff for statistical significance in field epidemiology.

• We will not teach more about statistical significance in this course, but the
student should be aware that RR is affected by factors such as population
size, and cannot stand alone. Statistical consultation is readily available
from DHSS for the field epidemiologist.

B. Odds Ratio
The RR can only be calculated if incidence data are available. The Odds Ratio
(OR) may be used in situations where we do not have denominator data to
calculate incidence rates.
• The odds ratio is used frequently in case/control studies, which we will
cover in more detail in the workshop portion of this course.
• In a case/control study, ill persons’ characteristics and exposures are
compared with those of well persons (“controls”) selected from the same
population in which the outbreak occurred.
o Example: in an outbreak suspected to stem from exposure to
contaminated food at a restaurant, the ill persons’ food selections

16
 could be compared with those of some well people who also ate at
the restaurant the same day. This could be done even if we didn’t
know exactly how many people ate at the restaurant that day.

• A two-by-two table is constructed, just like the one used to calculate RR,
with the same letters (a-d) used to label the cells. The OR is calculated by
multiplying across the cells.

Example:
Table 7
Number of Cases of Disease X by Exposure History, Smallville, 2004
Disease X
Yes No Total
Ate Tuna a 46 b 25 71
Casserole
Didn’t Eat Tuna c 18 d 40 58
Casserole

The formula for OR is:

Odds Ratio = ad
bc

Where
a = number of persons with disease and with exposure of interest
b = number of persons without disease, but with exposure of interest
c = number of persons with disease, but without exposure of interest
d = number of persons without disease and without exposure of interest

a+c = total number of persons with disease (“cases”)

b+d = total number of persons without disease (“controls”)

The OR in this example is:

Odds Ratio = 46 x 40 = 1840 = 4.1

25 x 18 450

So those who became ill were 4.1 times as likely to have eaten the tuna
casserole. We should probably look a little more deeply into the tuna casserole!
We would still need to subject this result to a test of statistical significance (just
like we do with the RR) to judge the probability that the result could have
occurred by chance alone.

17
PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE V – DISPLAYING AND INTERPRETING

EPIDEMIOLOGIC VARIABLES

Portions of this module were adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) “Principles of Epidemiology, Second Edition, An Introduction to
Applied Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 1998.”

Note: You will need to access the course to view the many examples associated
with this module, as they are not included in this outline.

I. INTRODUCTION
Module V is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the following
objectives:
• Define the three categories of epidemiologic variables
• Identify the three main methods used to organize epidemiologic data
• Correctly interpret graphic presentations of epidemiologic data
• Choose appropriate display methods and formats for specific kinds of
epidemiologic data

II. WHAT ARE EPIDEMIOLOGIC VARIABLES?

A. Epidemiologic variables are characteristics that can be observed and/or
measured. They may be characteristics of:
• Time - the time of illness or of a relevant event.
Examples: date of exposure or onset of illness.
• Place - the environment in which illness occurs.
Examples: place of residence, of work, or of suspected exposure
(such as a retail food establishment).
• Person - individuals who are infected, ill, or at risk. Examples: age,
gender and occupation.

B. We look at epidemiologic variables to:

• identify characteristics that might be important, and
• to form hypotheses about the
o source,
o causative agent, and
o mode of transmission of illness.

C. When we review surveillance data or investigate an outbreak, we are trying to

answer these questions:

1
 WHO? Identify individuals and sub-populations at risk of exposure or
transmission

HOW? Identify the modes of disease transmission, especially any

changes from known transmission patterns

HOW CAN WE INTERVENE? Identify factors or conditions that can be

manipulated to modify or prevent disease occurrence and spread

WHAT ARE OUR PRIORITIES? Identify the usual patterns of disease in

a population, so we can set priorities and respond more quickly to
outbreaks

Remember, the ultimate goal of epidemiology is to prevent disease. This is

done by finding associations between a disease and the characteristics of
o time,
o place, and
o person.

III. METHODS FOR ORGANIZING EPIDEMIOLOGIC DATA

• The field epidemiologist needs to organize data for several reasons:

o It is a necessary step in data analysis.
o It helps the epidemiologist visualize patterns and trends, and identify
variations from those trends.
o It provides a useful way to communicate information to others.

• There are three basic methods of organizing epidemiologic data

o Tables
o Charts and
o Graphs

A. Tables
1. In General:
• A table is a set of data, organized into rows and columns.
• Tables are useful for identifying patterns, exceptions, differences
and other relationships.
• Tables also serve as the basis for charts and graphs.

A table should be self-explanatory. It should convey all the information the

reader needs to understand the data, including:
• A clear and concise title
• Row and column labels (clear and concise)
• Totals for rows and columns
• Footnotes to explain any codes, abbreviations, or symbols

2
 • Footnotes that note any data excluded from the analysis
• Clear identification of the source of the data in a footnote

2. Types of Tables

a) One Variable Tables. The simplest form of table has only one
variable. That is the frequency distribution, which was discussed in
Module IV, Statistical Measures.
• To review briefly, in a frequency distribution table, the first column
shows the values (or categories) of a variable, and the second
column shows the number of people or records that fall into each
value or category.
• Often, there is a third column that lists the percentage of persons or
events in each category.
• Sometimes a one-variable table shows the cumulative frequency or
cumulative percent.

b) Two- and Three-Variable Tables.

• Additional columns are added to a table to show counts by a
second variable, for example age and sex.
• As you learned in Module IV, a two-by-two table is used to show
cross-tabulated data. Another name for a two-by-two table is a
contingency table. Such tables display two variables, each with two
categories.
• It is usually better to use only one- or two-variable tables.
Sometimes, though, a third variable is needed to show a set of data
more completely, for example, age, sex and race. A three-variable
table is hard for the reader to interpret. No table should attempt to
show more than three variables.

c) Tables of Other Statistical Measures.

• Although all the examples used so far show counts (frequency) of
the variables, tables can also be used to show other statistical
measures.
• The cells can contain rates, means, relative risks or other
measures.
• Just be sure the titles and row/column headings clearly identify
what data is being presented.

3. Creating Class Intervals.

• Some variables such as sex or “ate potato salad?” have a limited

number of possible values.
• Others have a broader range of possible responses, and categories
or “class intervals” are needed to group them.
• The following rules are important when creating class intervals:

3
 o Create categories that are mutually exclusive and include all of
the data. For example, if your first category is 0-5, the next one
must start with 6, not 5.
o Use a relatively large number of narrow categories for the initial
analysis, since you can always combine them later.
o Try to use standard groupings if they are available – for
example, age categories used by CDC for a particular disease.
o Create a category for unknowns, since there will usually be
missing information for some of the cases.

If there are no standard or natural class intervals for a particular variable,

there are several ways to create class intervals. These are discussed in
more detail in the CDC Principles of Epidemiology home study course.

B. Charts

1. In General
Charts:
• Are a method of organizing and illustrating data using only one
coordinate.
• Are best used for comparing data with discrete categories.
Several types of charts may be produced using common spreadsheet
software such as Excel.

2. Types of Charts
a) Bar Charts. Bar charts are used to create a visual display of the data
from a table. The bars may be either horizontal or vertical.

• Simple bar charts

o Used to display the data from a frequency distribution (one-
variable table).
o Each bar represents one value of the variable.
o This makes it very easy to compare the relative magnitude of
the different values.

• Grouped bar charts

o Used to illustrate data from two- or three-variable tables.
o The bars must be shaded or colored differently and described in
a legend.
o It is best not to use more than three bars per group.
o Leave a space between adjacent groups of bars, but not
between bars in a group.

• Stacked bar charts

o Another way of showing two variables.

4
 o The values of the second variable make up segments of the
bars that represent the first variable.
o These charts can be hard to interpret, since only the first
segment rests on a flat baseline.

• Deviation bar charts

o Used to show how a variable deviates from a baseline, in both
positive and negative directions.
o The bars are usually positioned horizontally.
o Each week, CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Report (MMWR)
uses a deviation bar chart to show the number of cases of
several diseases reported during the last four weeks, compared
to the number reported during the same four weeks for the past
five years.

• A few simple rules for constructing bar charts:

o Arrange the categories that define the bars in a natural order
(for example, alphabetically or by increasing age), or in an order
that produces increasing or decreasing bar lengths.
o Make all of the bars the same width, whatever looks good.
o Make the length of the bars in proportion to the frequency of the
event.
o Code different variables by differences in bar color or shading,
and include a legend that interprets your code.

b) Pie Charts.
• A pie chart is simple and easily understood.
o Very useful for showing the component parts of a single group
or variable.
o The size of the pie “slices” shows the percentage for each
component part of the whole.
o Pie charts are easily generated using spreadsheet software
such as Excel.

• A few simple rules for constructing pie charts:

o Start at “12:00 o’clock” (straight up) and arrange the component
slices from the largest to the smallest, going clockwise.
o Put the categories “other” and “unknown” last.
o Use different colors or shading for each “slice.”
o Show somewhere on the graph what 100% of the pie represents
(for example, the total number of cases).
o Indicate the percentage that each “slice” represents.

• Multiple pie charts are sometimes used to compare the same

components in two different groups or variables. However, it is
hard to accurately compare two or more pie charts visually.

5
 c) Maps.
o Maps are a very widely used type of chart.
o They are also called geographic coordinate charts.
o Spot maps and area maps are commonly used in field
epidemiology.

• Spot maps use dots or other symbols to show where an event took
place, or where a disease condition exists.
o Spot maps are good for detecting clusters of disease cases.
o However, we must remember that a spot map does not take
into account the size of the population at risk.
o So it does not show the risk of the event occurring in that
particular place.
o A heavy clustering of dots may simply mean that more
people live in that area and therefore more cases appear
there.

• Area maps, however, can be used to illustrate differences in risk in

different areas.
o An area map uses shaded areas to show either the
incidence of an event, or the distribution of some condition
over a geographic area.
o We can show either rates or numbers with an area map.
o When we calculate and show a specific rate for each sub-
area, we can make direct comparisons of risk between them.

• Mapping technology has grown very sophisticated in recent years.

The widespread availability and use of Global Positioning Systems
(GPS) devices and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software
has made it easier to produce accurate, up-to-date maps to aid in
epidemiologic investigations.

C. GRAPHS
1. In General:
• A graph is a way to show numerical data visually, using a system of
coordinates.
• A graph can help us see patterns, trends, aberrations, similarities,
and differences in the data.
• People usually understand and remember the important aspects of
data much more easily from looking at a graph than a table.
• Graph format:
o Most graphs used in epidemiology have two lines, one
horizontal and one vertical.
o The horizontal line is called the x-axis
o The vertical line is the y-axis.

6
 o The x-axis (horizontal) is used to show the values of the
method of classification, for example, time in years, which is called
the independent variable.
o The y-axis (vertical) is use to show the dependent variable,
usually a frequency measure such as number of cases or rate of
disease.
o Each axis must be clearly labeled and the scale of
measurement marked.

2. Types of Graphs

Arithmetic-Scale Line Graphs

• Show patterns or tends over some variable, usually time.
• In epidemiology these graphs are often used to show the history of
incidence of a disease over time.
• Arithmetic-scale line graphs are also good for comparing two or
more sets of data.

Here are a few simple rules for constructing arithmetic-scale line graphs:
• Mark off each axis at equal intervals.
• Use a scale on the x-axis that matches the intervals used when
collecting the data (for example, days, weeks, months or years). If
very small intervals were used, combine them into larger ones.
• Make the y-axis shorter than the x-axis, so the graph appears
horizontal.
• Always start the y-axis with 0.
• Pick a range of values for the y-axis that is slightly higher than the
largest number you will be plotting.
• Select an interval size for the y-axis that will give you enough intervals
to show the data in enough detail for your purposes.

A histogram is another type of graph that is very important in field

epidemiology. We will learn about histograms later in this module.

IV. INTERPRETING EPIDEMIOLOGIC DATA: TIME, PLACE AND

PERSON VARIABLES
As we look at tables, graphs and charts to draw inferences and form hypotheses,
we often make comparisons between:
• Different time periods,
• Places, and
• Groups of people.

7
It is very important to use comparable data when making such comparisons. Be
sure the data are comparable with respect to:
• Case definitions
• Level of effort in case-finding and data collection
• Time periods (compare weeks with weeks, months with months etc.)
• Populations (if two populations differ in age distribution or density, this
should be taken into account)

Apparent differences in disease incidence can be influenced by any of these

factors.

A. Time

1. In General
Variations over time in the frequency of a disease can tell us a lot about
the determinants of that disease in a given population.

We may look at trends over many years (called secular trends), or

seasonal variations, or variations over the short time period of an
outbreak.

• As we look at disease data over time, we should ask these questions:

o What is the pattern?
o What factors might explain it?
o What is the most likely future pattern?

• Variations over time may result from:

o True increases or decreases--actual changes in the frequency
of the disease in that population
o Changes in sensitivity or specificity of the surveillance system
o Mistakes made in collecting or organizing the data
o Changes in the perceptions of the public or the health care
community about the importance of diagnosing and reporting
that particular disease

• A long-term increase in incidence of a disease may reflect changes

such as:
o Introduction of a new disease agent into a population
o Decreasing effectiveness of control measures
o Changes in the environment (for example, climatic conditions
affecting the tick population)
o Changes in societal practices (for example, urbanization leading
to greater population density)

8
• Many diseases are subject to cyclic changes over time. Diseases
that are strongly influenced by environmental factors may show
seasonal variation.

• Another form of cyclic change is called secular trends. These are

marked changes over long time periods that are caused by changes in
environmental factors or host susceptibility.

Example of secular trend:

Hepatitis A incidence has historically cycled up and down over
periods of ten or more years.
When the disease is widespread, the number of susceptible
people (especially children) goes down, so it begins to wane.
When enough susceptibles build up, it increases again.
This pattern may be changing now that an effective vaccine is
available to prevent hepatitis A.

• Finally, time trends for a disease may simply show erratic change due
to chance variations, sometimes called “noise.” This is true of many
diseases with low endemic levels. It is also a common pattern when
looking at very localized data, since the number of cases may be too
low to exhibit a strong pattern.

2. Time during an outbreak or epidemic period

When investigating an outbreak, monitoring time trends becomes

critical.
An outbreak or epidemic period is the time during which the number of
cases of a disease exceeds the expected number.
Time is usually measured in hours, days, weeks or months.

• A special kind of graph, called a histogram, is used to plot cases

according to the time of onset of symptoms. This is called an
epidemic curve. Interpretation of epidemic curves will be covered in
more detail in the workshop portion of this course.

o A histogram looks somewhat like a bar graph, but with

several important differences. In an epidemic curve:
The x-axis is always made up of equal time intervals,
and should begin just before the outbreak
The time intervals should be appropriate to the
disease in question (hours, days, weeks, months)
The y-axis is the number of cases
Each case is represented by one square, and all
squares are of equal size
There are no spaces between the columns

9
 There may or may not be horizontal lines between the
squares

o You may show a second variable in a histogram through the

use of shading.
For example, you may want to look at the distribution
of hepatitis cases who are county residents vs.
visitors to the county.
This can be done either by shading the squares
representing visitors, or by constructing two separate
histograms.

o The most common spreadsheet software, such as Excel,

does not generate proper histograms. They may be
constructed by hand, or using specialized software such as
Epi Info, which was produced by CDC.

• A frequency polygon may be used instead of a histogram to show an

epidemic curve. In this type of graph, the squares are replaced by a
line. However, a frequency polygon is not the same as a line graph, as
shown in the next example.

B. Place
• Place is a specific geographic area that can be described by latitude,
longitude and altitude. As used in epidemiology, place:
o May be a street address, city, state, region, or country, or
o May be expressed as a dichotomous, “either-or” variable
such as
urban/rural
domestic/foreign
institutional/non-institutional
lower vs. higher socioeconomic areas

• The association of a disease with a place implies that the most

important causative factors are in the environment or people of that
place. For example:
o Population density (urban vs. rural) can affect how rapidly an
airborne disease is transmitted, or determine risk of exposure to
a vectorborne disease.
o The incidence of many diseases increases as socioeconomic
status decreases, due to the effects on immune status, quality
of the environment, overcrowding, etc.
o Regional variations can reflect the specific ecologic
requirements of a disease agent or vector

10
 o Country of origin or of exposure can be important, because
diseases may be imported from endemic areas (for example,
malaria)

• Rates, not counts, must be used to compare disease incidence in

different places. Otherwise the difference in population size would
make it impossible to interpret any differences.

• Place comparisons are most useful if we look at the data over time.
Remember, no one point in time can give us all the information we
need.

C. Person
As we learned in Module I, people can be described in terms of many inherited or
acquired characteristics such as:
• Age
• Sex
• Race
• Immune status
• Marital status
• Educational level

They may also be described in terms of their activities, such as:

• Occupation
• Recreational activities
• Religious practices
• Customs

Or, they may be described by the circumstances in which they live, such as:
• Social conditions, for example housing
• Economic status
• Environmental conditions

These variables are important since they determine, to a large degree, who is at
the greatest risk of acquiring specific infections.

Age is the single most important personal characteristic. To a large extent, it

determines:
• The physiologic activity of the disease organism
• The level of immunity or resistance, and
• The potential for exposure to a disease agent

Our behavior, and therefore our risk of exposure, differs markedly at different life
stages. Examples are the mouthing behavior of toddlers and increased sexual
activity during adolescence and young adulthood.

11
Sex can also influence the risk of disease.
For many diseases, both sexes have about the same level of risk. However,
if there is a gender difference in a particular disease it usually means either
males or females had a greater opportunity for exposure. This could be due to
differences in:
• occupation (for example, child care, agricultural work)
• recreational activities (for example, hunting), or
• social behaviors (for example, intravenous drug use)

Race and/or ethnicity can also be a factor in disease risk.

• Such disparities most often result from differences in exposure or
immunity status (for example, immunization rates).
• With most diseases, racial and ethnic differences are a consequence
of socio-economic and cultural differences, rather than physical
differences.

Summary
Epidemiologic variables are characteristics that can be observed and/or
measured. They may be characteristics of
• time,
• place, or
• person.

Tables, charts and graphs are good tools for organizing epidemiologic data.
They make it possible to identify, explore, understand and present data
distributions, trends and relationships.

After we organize the data, we can look at epidemiologic variables to:

• identify characteristics that might be important, and
• form hypotheses about the source, causative agent, and mode of
transmission of illness.

12
PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE VI – INTERVIEWING 101

I. INTRODUCTION

• Interviewing people to elicit information is a key skill for any field epidemiologist.
• When investigating a disease case or outbreak, we must help people “open up” and
give us accurate information.
• Success in disease control often depends on the ability to develop trust and rapport,
and to aid people in recalling what has happened.

Because interviewing is a skill that requires practice, this module will present only the
“basics.” You will have the opportunity to practice during the Workshop portion of this
course.

Objectives: Module VI is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the

following objectives:
• Define the purpose and goals of epidemiologic interviewing
• Describe methods used to assure confidentiality
• Identify the three components of effective communication
• Describe several techniques for maintaining objectivity and eliciting accurate
information

II. WHO DOES AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST INTERVIEW?

Field epidemiologists may interview a wide variety of people in the course of their work,
such as:
• Health professionals reporting a disease case or outbreak
• People diagnosed with, or suspected to have, an infectious disease
• People who may have come into contact with someone with an infectious
disease
• People who may have been exposed to a disease source (for example, a food
establishment, specific food product, or water supply)
• Workers involved in a suspected disease outbreak, such as food service, health
care or childcare workers

Interviews may be done in person or by telephone and may take place in all kinds of
settings, such as:
• homes
• hospitals
• workplaces
• schools or childcare centers, or even
• “on the street” - anywhere a disease investigation takes us.

1
Example:
A hospital laboratory reports a case of Salmonella in a young woman who is
hospitalized.

Interview #1:
The field epidemiologist calls the hospital’s records department to get information to
complete the initial CD-1 report.

Interview #2:
• The field epidemiologist:
o visits the hospital and interviews the patient, using a standard enteric
disease investigation form.
o finds out, through this interview, that the patient had lunch with a friend
two days before she became ill.
o finds out that the friend has been mildly ill with nausea, diarrhea, and
fever.

Interview #3:
• The field epidemiologist:
o calls the friend and completes an enteric disease investigation interview.
o finds out that the friend works in a childcare center, and has continued to
work throughout her illness.
o arranges for the friend to be tested for salmonellosis.

Interviews #4, #5 and so on:

From here, the investigation may take two different directions, each of which will require
more interviews.
• First, the field epidemiologist will go to the restaurant where the two women had
lunch and interview the manager (and perhaps staff) to find out whether any of the
staff are ill, whether complaints of other illnesses have been received, etc.
• Second, if the friend’s lab test is positive for Salmonella, interviews will need to be
conducted at the childcare center where the friend works.

III. WHY CONDUCT INTERVIEWS?

The basic purpose of an epidemiologic interview is to get information that can help
prevent the spread of disease. Interviews may:
• Obtain complete data for disease reporting and analysis
• Provide “clues” that lead to hypothesis development
• Identify the source and/or connections between disease cases or outbreaks
• Help prevent the development of disease in those potentially exposed
• Help prevent the complications of untreated disease in those already infected

The goals of an interview vary with the type of interview. Some common goals are:
• To get honest, complete and accurate information

2
 • To educate the person being interviewed about the disease and its treatment
• To motivate the person to assist in identifying additional people at risk and
preventing the spread of infection
• To reduce the risk of the person spreading the disease

IV. TRUST AND CONFIDENTIALITY

Trust
To gain the trust of the interview subject, rapport must be established by
• discussing common interests.
• showing the person that this is not just a job, and that you truly care about their
health and the health of those around them.
• explaining the goal of the interview and how it will benefit the person and
others.

Confidentiality
• Confidentiality is a very important principle in public health work.

• Interviewing is a voluntary process, which requires the acceptance and

cooperation of the person being interviewed.

• If the person has concerns about whether the information will be kept
confidential, they may be reluctant to provide information.

• The preservation of confidentiality is established by health department policy

and practice, and by state and federal statutes. The interviewer should be
familiar with the policies and procedures of his/her agency.

• Missouri law (Revised Statutes of MO 192.067) allows the Department of

Health and Senior Services to obtain information from medical records, for
purposes of conducting epidemiological studies to be used in promoting and
safeguarding the health of the citizens of Missouri. This authority extends to the
local public health agencies through departmental rules and contracts. See
Module III, Public Health Surveillance, for more information about public
health’s legal authority to collect information.

• In most epidemiologic investigations, the person giving information must be

reassured that they will not be identified publicly. There may be important
exceptions, however. If bioterrorism or other intentional exposure is suspected,
a criminal investigation may be necessary. In that case confidentiality could not
be guaranteed.

• What does confidentiality mean to the person being interviewed?

o Contact names must only be used for field investigation and
notification.

3
 o A contact must never be told the name or identity of the person who
named them as a contact (or given other information that could lead to
identifying the source, such as specific times, places, etc.).
o Information must be shared only with other health professionals who
have a need to know in order to perform the investigation.

• Methods for maintaining confidentiality:

o Avoid revealing any identifying information about other cases or
contacts—not only name, but also age, race, gender, location of index
patient, etc.
o When using the telephone, ensure that you are talking with the correct
person. Verify that he/she is in a private setting.
o Follow special procedures when interviewing persons or other
sexually transmitted diseases (more information on this will be shared
in the Workshop).

• If an interview is not about personal medical information, then confidentiality

safeguards may not apply. For example, information collected from a
foodhandler about the process used in food preparation is not considered
medical information, and may be an open record after an outbreak investigation
is completed.

V. COMMUNICATION: SOME BASIC COMPONENTS

Effective interviewing requires good communication skills. There are three components
of effective communication:
1. Non-verbal communication
2. Verbal communication
3. Effective listening

1. Non-verbal communication is extremely important - some say it is more important

than the actual words we use. Here are some tips for good non-verbal communication:
• Eye contact: Good eye contact conveys confidence in yourself, your
message, or both. Too much eye contact can be seen as aggressive.
• Facial expressions: Be aware that any facial expressions can affect the
interaction. It is best to approach the person in a non-threatening manner.
• Body orientation: Fully face the person while maintaining appropriate eye
contact. The optimum distance from the other person is between 18 inches
and four feet.
• Posture: Body positioning can have a great impact on communication. Lean
forward and listen intently to show interest. Don’t appear too relaxed (by
pulling back or putting your feet up) - this tells the person you don’t care.
• Physical environment: Ideally, the interview should be held in a private
location with few distractions.

4
When interviews are done by phone, of course, non-verbal communication is less
important. However, your tone of voice and the pace of your speech can convey some
of the same messages that non-verbal cues such as posture convey in person.

2. Verbal communication refers to the way we organize and present the words we
use. Some tips for good verbal communication include:
• Brevity: Be brief and to the point.
• Primacy: Say the most important things first, to help the person remember
them.
• Organization: Ask your questions and present your messages in a logical
and sequential manner. It is always best to use a prepared format for an
interview.
• Appropriate educational level: Remember that many people cannot
understand technical terms or complicated sentences. The average reading
level among the public is 4th to 6th grade. Use familiar terms and avoid
“talking down.”
• Clarification: Always give the person the opportunity to ask clarifying
questions. If they don’t understand what you are asking, they cannot give
accurate information.
• Repetition: Repeat important topics to help the person understand and
remember the message. You may also ask the person to repeat the
information.
• Specificity: Be explicit. Do not raise irrelevant points or “beat around the
bush,” or the message will be lost.

3. Effective Listening is a vital part of communication. Effective listening includes

non-verbal and verbal feedback to the person who is talking.
• Non-verbal feedback conveys encouragement, and may include nodding,
smiling, and other appropriate gestures.
• Verbal feedback means paraphrasing what the person said, or responding to
the content. This conveys you have heard and understood what was said.
• Avoid selective listening. Listen to the entire message being communicated,
not just what you want to hear. You may miss something very important!

VI. OBJECTIVITY

There is one other key ingredient of a good interview. The interviewer must remain
objective and try to elicit accurate information. To do this:
• Don’t anticipate the answers - let the person speak for him- or herself.
• Go back over any responses that seem inconsistent. For example, when
reconstructing an exposure history, if there are gaps, contradictions or the timing
seems “off,” gently guide the person through the sequence of events again. It
can be hard to remember things that happened days or weeks ago!
• Never “lead” a person to a particular answer, even if you have a strong suspicion
what the answer “should be.” You will only harm the investigation by influencing
the responses.

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 • If you sense that the person is hesitant to share some information, concentrate
on making them comfortable. You may need to “back off” and come back to that
subject again later.
• Take some time at the end of the interview to go over your notes and ask any
needed follow-up questions.

Interviewing is an important but challenging part of field epidemiology. In the Workshop

portion of this course, you will have the opportunity to practice with other students.
Remember, a good interviewer:
• is well organized.
• establishes rapport with the person being interviewed.
• assures confidentiality (when appropriate).
• uses good verbal and non-verbal communication skills.
• always remains objective.

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 MODULE VII

Outbreak Investigations
A. Overview
• Outbreak investigations should be a collaborative effort, since several tasks requiring
different skills must be done at the same time.

• Steps in Disease Investigation

While every outbreak is unique, the investigative process generally follows the
sequence outlined below:
1. Obtain the initial report.
2. Determine the extent of illness. Are there other associated cases?
3. Learn about the suspected agent—is it transmissible from person to person? Is
it transmissible through the environment, such as by food or water?
4. Plan the investigation.
5. Conduct the investigation.
6. Formulate a case definition for analytical purposes.
7. Analyze the cases and characterize by time, place, and person.
8. Evaluate the hypothesis and formulate conclusions.
9. Select, implement, and evaluate control measures.
10. Prepare investigation report.
11. Distribute the approved final report to all agencies that contributed to the
investigation effort.
12. Conduct after-action evaluation.

• This list is a summary of the things that need to be considered in any investigation. In
real life, several of these steps may go on at the same time. Their order will vary, and
several of the steps may occur more than once. However, all of these things are
necessary to the successful resolution of an outbreak.

B. Preparations for an outbreak must begin before the outbreak occurs.

1. Each agency should establish a multidisciplinary investigative team and assign
responsibilities. Members should include:
• nursing
• communicable disease
• environmental
• support staff
• laboratory
• public information, and
• computer information

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 2. Staff should receive training, including Introduction to Epidemiology, Principles
of Epidemiology and other disease specific courses on investigative procedures.
3. Assemble materials: laboratory kits, forms, reference materials, personal
protective equipment such as gloves and masks.
4. Maintain a current phone directory, including e-mail and Internet addresses, home
addresses and phone numbers of team participants, and key contact personnel
outside the Local Public Health Agency.
5. Maintain adequate local surveillance systems for the early detection of increased
disease incidence.

C. Definitions
An outbreak or epidemic is the occurrence in a community or region of an illness(es) of similar
nature, clearly in excess of normal expectancy, and derived from a common or a propagated
source (19 CSR 20-20.010).
Acute gastroenteritis is an illness with sudden onset characterized by symptoms such as diarrhea,
vomiting, fever, or abdominal cramping.
NOTE: Always consider the possibility of intentional contamination when investigating
an outbreak. If a bioterrorism event is suspected, notify your Regional Communicable
Disease Coordinator and appropriate law enforcement officials immediately.

AN OUTBREAK CASE STUDY:

Foodborne Outbreak Associated with a Wedding,
Southwest Missouri, June 2002

Introduction

In this case study you will investigate a disease outbreak following the Steps in Disease
Investigation above. For purposes of this exercise, you will be the head of the investigation
team for the Washaw County Health Department (WCHD), and you will work on each of the
steps in order. For each step, you will be given some information describing the current situation
and then asked to describe how you would handle that step. The correct answers will be provided
after each step.

STEP 1. Obtain the initial report.

Situation: On June 7, 2002, the WCHD nurse received a call from a person who had attended a
wedding and reception on June 1, 2002 and soon afterward became ill with acute gastroenteritis.
The caller said he knew of several other people who were also ill.

Question: What additional information should you get from the caller?

STEP 2. Determine the extent of the illness. Are there other associated cases?

Situation: You have contacted the local hospital. The Laboratory Director said they had
recently sent five Salmonella isolates from stool cultures to the State Public Health Laboratory
(SPHL) for additional testing. Within the next three days, the SPHL reported that the five
isolates were all Salmonella infantis. One of these patients was the caller who attended the
wedding.

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You have telephoned the Southwest Regional Communicable Disease Coordinator, who
reviewed the surveillance data in the MOHSIS computer system. No other cases of Salmonella
infantis had been reported in the Southwest Region in all of 2002.

a. Question: Should this episode be considered an outbreak? If so, what other activities should
you start?

b. Question: What definition of an outbreak related case would best serve the investigation at
this point?

STEP 3. Learn about the suspected agent—is it transmissible from person to person?
Through the environment (including food or water)?

Situation: Consult the Communicable Disease Investigation Reference Manual (CDIRM) or

other current references such as Control of Communicable Diseases Manual or the American
Academy of Pediatrics Red Book to answer the questions in Steps 3 and 4 and get other
information about the natural history of the disease. In this case, the agent is known to be
Salmonella infantis, which is transmissible from person to person and through the environment.
(See CDIRM manual section on salmonellosis at
http://www.dhss.mo.gov/CDManual/Salm.pdf )

a. Question: Considering salmonellosis is transmissible from person to person, what additional

steps should be taken?

b. Question: Considering that salmonellosis is transmissible through the environment, what

additional steps should be taken?

STEP 4. Plan the investigation.

Situation: By carrying out the activities in the previous steps, the following information was
obtained:
• There were three meals associated with the wedding celebration:
May 31, 2002 Rehearsal Dinner
June 01, 2002 Bridal Brunch (morning)
June 01, 2002 Wedding Reception (7:00 p.m.)
• The bridal brunch was held at a private residence, and was attended by 12 women.
• The rehearsal dinner and the wedding reception were catered by a local catering firm and
held at a convention center. The catering firm is operated out of a home with a separate
kitchen devoted to the business.
• About 30 people attended the rehearsal dinner and 300 attended the wedding reception.
• All of the first five identified cases attended the reception, but only one was at the
rehearsal dinner and none attended the bridal brunch.

a. Question: At this early stage, what would be a reasonable tentative hypothesis about what
may have caused the outbreak?

Clues:
• Formulate a tentative hypothesis based on the time, place, and person associations you
have found so far. This hypothesis will form a basis for the investigation. It is very

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 important not to be too narrow in your focus, thereby excluding potentially important
cases or events.
• Develop the hypothesis by interpreting available data to determine:
o Identity of most likely agent(s)
o Most likely source(s) of agent
o Most likely mode by which agent was transmitted.

b. Question: The purpose of the detailed investigation is to gather the information needed to
test your tentative hypothesis. What are the required tests of each component of the hypothesis,
and what information is needed for each?

c. Question: You have developed your hypothesis and determined what information you
will need to gather. How will you gather the information and test your hypothesis?

STEP 5. Conduct the investigation

Situation: Your team is assembled and the questionnaires are developed.

Question: How will you proceed with the investigation?

STEP 6. Formulate a case definition for analytical purposes.

Situation: You’ve gathered a lot of information. Now you need to develop a more refined case
definition so you can clearly identify the relevant cases and analyze the data. The goal is to
create a case definition that is sufficiently “tight” to include only the people whom you are
reasonably sure had Salmonella infections related to the outbreak.

Question: What elements will you use to formulate your case definition? What is your new,
refined case definition?

STEP 7. Analyze the cases and characterize by time, place, and person.

Situation: The investigation was carried out as planned. With the assistance of the Regional
Communicable Disease Coordinator, the following steps were taken:
• The case definition was used to identify which people were considered to be
“cases.”
• An epidemiologic curve (histogram) was created.
• A case-control study was conducted and attack rates were calculated.

Following are the major findings, grouped again by the three major parts of the hypothesis.

1. “This is an outbreak of Salmonella infantis…”

• Ten stool specimens from outbreak-related cases were confirmed positive for
Salmonella infantis. The earliest specimen was collected on 6/4/02 and the last one
on 7/2/02. No other enteric pathogens were isolated.
• One person with a stool specimen positive for Salmonella infantis did not meet the
case definition and was excluded from the analysis. She was the mother of the bride
(who did not handle the food). Her symptoms started on 5/31/02 (the day before the
wedding) and therefore she did not meet the definition. It is possible that she had

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 “nervous diarrhea” before the wedding, and her Salmonella infection actually began
later.
• Sadly, the bride and groom were also reported to be ill. They were not included in the
study because they had left on their honeymoon anyway.
• The common signs and symptoms were diarrhea (100%), cramps (84%), nausea
(52%), fever (52%), chills (44%), and headache (36%).
• There were 24 cases who reported onset time. The mean onset time was 23 hours
after the wedding reception began; the range was 6 to 63 hours.

2. “…caused by the ingestion of contaminated foods (or beverages)…”

• Exposure histories of ill and well attendees:
o The case-control study began on June 12, 2002. Fifty-one persons were
interviewed, all of whom ate at the reception. Twenty-five of the 51 were ill
and met the case definition. Three more ill people were interviewed but did not
meet the case definition and so were excluded from the analysis. The controls
were 23 well guests identified during interviews with wedding attendees.
o All cases interviewed were over 18 years old. The mean age of the cases was
36 and the mean age of the controls was 29.
o The menu consisted of: turkey, ham, roast beef, potato salad, pasta salad, raw
vegetables and dip, raw fruit and sauce, chips, bread, condiments, a variety of
cakes, iced tea, soda and beer.
o Two-by-two tables were constructed for each menu item served at the wedding
reception. Two foods were found to be statistically significantly associated
with illness:

Food Item Odds Ratio 95% Confidence Uncorrected

Interval “p” Value
Turkey 5.45 1.19 – 26.99 0.01
Potato Salad 5.2 1.22 – 23.52 0.01

• Environmental evaluation
o No food remained for testing.
o On June 10, 2002, the convention center in which the reception was held was
inspected and revealed the following:
The tables used for serving food had no cold holding capacity.
Serving tables were not provided with sneeze shields.
The kitchen area was adequately equipped and clean.
o The inspection and evaluation of the caterer’s facility on June 10 revealed the
following:
Foodhandling equipment appeared to be in good working order.
The operation did not have a three-vat sink for proper dishwashing.
All foods served at the wedding reception were to be served cold.
The caterer received uncooked boneless turkey breasts at approximately
10:00 p.m., Wednesday, May 29. They were delivered frozen by the
bride’s family from Smallville, individually vacuum packaged. The
caterer immediately placed the breasts in a tub of water. The caterer
could not remember if the breasts were placed in refrigeration or left on
the counter at room temperature to thaw. The thawed breasts were
cooked in the original vacuum packaging Thursday afternoon, May 30,
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 to a temperature of 170°F using a meat thermometer to check cooking
temperature. They were removed from the electric roaster oven and
cooled at room temperature for 1½ to 2 hours. The breasts were then
placed in refrigeration. They were sliced at the caterer’s on a
commercial meat slicer Friday afternoon, May 31. Old food debris was
found on the slicer on June 10, the day of inspection.
The potato salad was prepared on Thursday, May 30, at the caterer’s
with the following ingredients: potatoes, Miracle Whip salad dressing,
mustard, commercially prepared pickle relish, celery, sugar, salt and
pepper.
The pasta salad was prepared at the caterer’s on Thursday, May 30,
with the following ingredients: commercially prepackaged noodles,
oil, vinegar and mustard.
Pre-cooked boneless hams were served, which were shaved and
packaged at two large grocery stores in a nearby town. Unannounced
visits to both stores on June 11, 2002 revealed that the hams were
sliced in the meat cutting departments. Only a single meat slicer was
present in each meat department. During the day, raw and cooked
products were being sliced. The meat slicers were not thoroughly
cleaned and sanitized between the slicing of raw and cooked products.
Raw beef particles were present on both slicers at the time of
inspection. The ambient air temperatures in the meat cutting rooms
were in the mid to upper 70s.
Pre-cooked Hormel brand roast beef was sliced and packaged at a
grocery in a small town in the southern part of the county. The roast
beef was picked up the morning of the dinner and delivered in coolers
to the convention center where the dinner was served. A visit to the
grocery on June 11, 2002, revealed the following: The meat slicer was
used only for precooked prepackaged deli meats. The meat slicer was
clean. The walk-in meat cooler used for storage was 40°F and also
clean.
o On June 10, 2002, a sample of the water supply at the catering establishment
was obtained and analyzed based on Department of Health and Senior Services
standards for drinking water. The water was determined to be unsatisfactory,
with bacteria too numerous to count with coliforms. It was also noted that the
well that supplies the water was located within 50 feet of a hog lot.

3. “... served at the wedding reception on June 1.”

• Thorough questioning of the ill and well persons included in the case-control study
revealed no other activities or food or beverage sources in common in the week
preceding the outbreak.

a. Question: Was the planned investigation adequately conducted?

b. Question: Referring to the epidemic curve (the histogram you previously downloaded),
is the distribution of the cases compatible with a common exposure at the wedding
reception? Describe how you arrived at your conclusion.

c. Question: Will the information obtained allow an adequate test of each element of the
hypothesis?

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STEP 8. Evaluate the hypothesis and formulate conclusions.

Situation: You now have all available information from the statistical analysis, along with
laboratory data, environmental inspection findings, and other relevant information with which to
evaluate the hypothesis and formulate conclusions.

a. Question: Is the first part of the hypothesis (“This is an outbreak of Salmonella infantis. . .”)
supported well enough by the data that you accept it as true?

b. Question: Is the second part of the hypothesis (“. . . caused by the ingestion of contaminated
foods (or beverages)...”) supported well enough by the data that you accept it as true?

c. Question: Is the third part of the hypothesis (“. . . served at the wedding reception on June
1”) supported well enough by the data that you accept it as true?

STEP 9. Select, implement, and evaluate control measures.

Situation: The outbreak was caused by an organism, Salmonella infantis, which causes
gastrointestinal symptoms.

a. Question: What control measures have you selected and implemented?

b. Question: How can you determine whether the control measures were effective?

STEP 10. Prepare the report

You will learn how to prepare an outbreak report in Module VIII and you will be able to view a
report for this outbreak of Salmonella infantis.

STEP 11. Distribute the report

The outbreak report should be submitted to the WCHD Administrator and to DHSS for approval.
Once approved, it should be distributed according to agency guidelines. At a minimum, it should
be shared with each agency involved in the investigation, and with any other entities who have
made a formal request for it.

STEP 12. Conduct after-action evaluation

Every outbreak investigation provides an opportunity for learning. The team(s) involved in the
investigation should be pulled together and a discussion held about what went well, what did not
go so well, and what changes can be put in place to make it easier and better the next time.

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PRINCIPLES OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY

MODULE VIII – PREPARING AN OUTBREAK

INVESTIGATION REPORT

Note: You will need to access the course to view the examples
associated with this module, as they are not included in this outline.

INTRODUCTION

Module VIII is designed to prepare public health workers to meet the

following objectives:
1. Correctly identify the necessary elements of an outbreak
investigation report
2. Correctly sequence epidemiologic information within an outbreak
report
3. Identify the appropriate recipients of an outbreak report

Reports about an outbreak investigation may take many forms. During

an investigation, interim reports help to transmit information about:
• what has happened
• what is happening
• what progress is being made

Preparing an interim report can help clarify the investigator’s

understanding and provide new insights.

Appropriate interim reports during the investigation may include:

• Verbal reports to the outbreak coordination team
• Verbal and written progress reports to administrators
• Information briefings for the media/public

This module will focus on the preparation of a formal, written report

after the conclusion of the outbreak investigation. Preparing and
distributing a report assures that the experience gained and the

1
discoveries made during the investigation are not lost. They can be used
to design and implement improvements in the surveillance system and
prevention/control measures. Ultimately, this knowledge can help reduce
the risk of similar situations occurring in the future.

A final report should be prepared within 90 days after the outbreak

investigation, while the information is still fresh and the findings will have
the most impact.

Let’s look at each of the report components, in order.

I. TITLE

The title should contain, at a minimum, the type of outbreak, location,

and date.

II. SUMMARY

The Summary section should contain all of the key facts that describe
what happened. It should be brief and concise. The information can be
explained and elaborated in other sections of the report.

The Summary should include the following information:

• Date and place of outbreak

• Number exposed
• Number interviewed
• Numbers of suspect, probable and confirmed cases
• Number hospitalized
• Number of deaths
• Key statistics (see below)
• Causative organism
• Control measures
• Recommendations

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Key statistics about the outbreak include:
• Attack rate (if available)
• Hospitalization rate
• Death rate
• Frequency distribution of symptoms
• Median date of exposure
• Median date of onset
• Average incubation period
• Average duration of illness
• Average duration of hospitalization

A reader should be able to read through the summary to gain a basic

understanding of how many people were ill, how badly they were
affected, what agent caused the problem, how the outbreak was
controlled, and any recommendations for preventing future outbreaks.

III. INTRODUCTION

The Introduction can be brief, and should set the scene for the
investigation. It should include:
• Date of initial report
• Agency that received the initial report
• Place and date of the outbreak
• Name and official title of the person submitting the report

IV. BACKGROUND

The Background section should provide relevant information about the

community and population in which the outbreak occurred, such as:
• A map of the community (or, if the outbreak occurred in an
institution, a map of the facility)
• A description of the relevant demographics (size and composition
of the population affected, any recent demographic changes, etc.)

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V. METHODS

The Methods section should answer the reader’s questions about what
was done, how and by whom. It should include:
• What population was considered to be at risk?
• What and how much data was collected?
• From whom and from how many people were data collected?
• By whom were data collected?
• How were case definition(s) developed and used?
• How was the well comparison group selected, and how
many people were in it?
• How were data collected and analyzed?
o Records reviewed
o People interviewed
o Questionnaires developed and distributed
o Questionnaire reliability and validity
• How were laboratory specimens collected and analyzed?
• What laboratory standards were used?
• What hypotheses were developed (including tentative ones)?
• Where, by whom and how were environmental
inspections done? (including the standards used for the
inspections, for example, the 2000 city ordinance or 1999 state
food code)

The Methods section is usually one of the longer sections of a report.

VI. RESULTS

The Results section should present all of the results from all of the
methods used, including laboratory testing, interviews and environmental
inspections. The information included in the Summary section can be
presented and explained in more detail here (except for the control
measures and recommendations).

This section should also include:

• the epidemic curve (histogram) showing illness onset dates

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 • a summary of the exposure histories of the persons interviewed
(for example, their food histories)
• results of statistical probability testing
• test results from the environmental samples
• test results from the human specimens

The Results section is also pretty lengthy.

VII. ANALYSIS

This is the place to present what you have learned from the investigation.
It should show your conclusions and interpretations regarding the:
• source of infection
• agent
• reservoir
• mode of transmission
• the group at highest risk

VIII. CONTROL MEASURES

This section should answer the reader’s questions about the measures
taken to control the outbreak:
• What methods were used for outbreak control?
• How were they implemented?
• Where, when and by whom were they implemented?
• How was their effectiveness measured?
• How effective were they?

IX. RECOMMENDATIONS

What recommendations can be made, based on what has been learned?

This is the place to suggest changes in policies, procedures, and/or
educational efforts in order to:
• prevent future outbreaks
• improve surveillance and detection of outbreaks
• improve the process of outbreak investigation and control

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X. OTHER OUTCOMES

This is the place to describe what the outbreak, and the efforts to control
it, have done to the population at risk. First, what impact did the
outbreak itself have, including both health and economic consequences?
• Did any individuals have serious complications that will cause long-
term health problems? Was the health care system adversely
impacted by the outbreak, for example by a surge in hospital
admissions?
• Were businesses or institutions affected economically (for example,
by adverse publicity)?

Just as important is the impact of the control measures on the:

• Population—was their way of life affected? Did their immune status
change (because of an immunization effort, for example)?
• Reservoirs—if the reservoir was animal or environmental, how did
the control measures change it? Was there a change in the
abundance or distribution of the disease agent (because of
sanitizing, spraying, trapping or other interventions, for example)?
• Vectors—if there was an animal vector, how was it impacted by the
control measures? Are there now fewer vector animals? Are they
distributed differently in the environment?

Finally, this is the place to share your other discoveries. Did you learn
something new to science in the course of the investigation? Often,
outbreaks yield new knowledge that needs to be shared with other public
health workers. Examples: new agent, reservoir, vector, temperature
range, novel mode of transmission, unusual symptoms or complications,
etc.

Outbreaks in MO have contributed to new discoveries, such as:

• Transmission of E. coli O157:H7 via drinking water contaminated
with sewage (first waterborne outbreak of this agent)
• Discovery of erlichiosis as a new tickborne disease in humans

6
 • Transmission of Salmonella via public drinking water. The water
was cross-contaminated from an abandoned industrial water tower
with birds roosting in it. This led to a new water tower inspection
program in the Department of Natural Resources.

XI. DISTRIBUTING THE REPORT

At a minimum, the final report of an outbreak investigation should go to

the:
• Investigation team members
• Administrator of the investigating health agency
• DHSS (Regional Communicable Disease Coordinator and state
office)

Others may request a copy of the report (for example, an affected

business, the press, and/or complainants in a lawsuit related to the
outbreak). Final outbreak reports are subject to the state’s Open Records
(Sunshine) law, so they may be released in some circumstances. The field
epidemiologist should refer any such requests to his/her supervisor or
administrator.

XII. OTHER REPORTING REQUIREMENTS

Depending upon the type of outbreak, there may be other requirements

for filing specific forms in addition to the narrative report. Please consult
the Communicable Disease Investigation Reference Manual (CDIRM) for
details. http://www.dhss.mo.gov/CDManual/CDsec30.pdf