MODULE 6

Course No. PL6102

Course Name: SOCIO ECONOMIC BASIS FOR
PLANNING
 SYLLABUS
• Module 6
• Population & demographic
• Population issues in India
• Source of demographic- Population data
capturing in India(Population census, Civil
Registration systems, Sample registration
systems etc.)
 SYLLABUS
• Population characteristics & structure
• Population composition
• Occupational structure
• Determinants of population growth
• Migration & its implication in settlement
development & planning
• Population forecasts & projections
 Population
• Population is no: of people or inhabitants in a country
or region
• total of individuals occupying an area
• total no: of individuals or objects from which
a sample is taken for study.
• The people living in a given area such as a city or
country.
 Population
• Population statistics are of vital importance for social and economic
planning.
• “Demography or the systematic analysis of population phenomena
denotes a subject matter that impinges on our everyday life in a
variety of ways.
• The first reason for studying demography is to attain an appreciably
better understanding of the world in which we live. Supplementing
this, the most general reason for studying population is a second
more specific one that applies to those particularly interested in the
analysis of the society.”

• (Thompson & Lewis, Population Problems – Introduction, Tata

McGraw-Hill
• Publishing Co., New Delhi, 1953)
 Demography
• Demography is the study of human population –
• their size,
• composition and distribution across space – and
the process through which populations change.
• Births, deaths and migration are the ‘big three’ of
demography, jointly producing population stability
or change.
• “Demography is the scientific study of human populations. According to a
standard definition,
• “demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution and
composition of population, changes
• therein, and the components of such changes. Though demographic
analysis is confined to the study
• of components of population variation and change; Population Studies are
concerned not only with
• population changes but also with relationships between population
changes and other variables –
• social, economic, political, genetic, geographical and the like.”

• (George M.V., Demography – A Growing Multidisciplinary Science –

‘Studies in
• Demography’, George Allen & Unwin Ltd., London, 1970)
 Demography
• study of human population & their density, distribution,
growth, size, or structure.
• Eg:Study the health of people at a university.
• population growth of a country
• Decadal population growth rate

• Demography is the scientific study of population

growth and change.
• Everything in society influences demography and
demography conversely influences everything in
society.
DEMOGRAPHY SOCIETY
 Demography
• Demographers study social statistics.
• Data collected during the study of demography is
called demographics.
• (noun) demographer (demographist) studies the
growth and density of population & their vital
statistics to produce (adjective) demographic or
(adjective) demographical data to understand
society (adverb) demographically.
 Demographic factors in planning
• “The relation between population and economic
development is not simple – let us take two extreme
cases of simplifications – on the one hand, the level of
living is simply defined as total income divided by the
total number of people, then one might say if the
population in Africa could somehow be halved from 326
million to 163 million now, per capita income in Africa
would be immediately doubled. That of course is absurd.
• . The important question is to relate the size and
growth of population to the resources and the levels of
technology for their utilisation.”
• Rate of population growth and the investment
requirement are directly related.
 Demography
• “Demography is the empirical, statistical and mathematical study of
human populations. It focuses its attention to three rather common place
and readily observable human phenomena:
(a) changes in population size (growth or decline);
(b) composition of population; and
(c) the distribution of population in space.
• It is interested not only in size, composition and distribution of population
at the present time, but also in changes in these aspects over time.
Moreover, it is concerned with seeking explanations of why a particular
combination of population conditions exist at a given time and why the
conditions are changing in exactly the way they are and at the rate of
change they exhibit.
• Therefore the field of demography may be defined as the description of
current status and of changes over time in the size, composition and
distribution of populations and the development of scientific explanations
of these events.
Demography
 Demography
• The most important thing in the world is people.
• The people, spread over the face of the earth, are the means and the end
of all society’s endeavours.
• Everything done in the fields of economics or industry, government or
politics, education, religion, recreation and the rest is done by people and
for people.
• Furthermore, the number of people involved, the manner in which they
are distributed over the territory, the rate at which they are increasing or
decreasing and the extent to which they are young or old, male or female,
married or single, rural or urban, in the labour force or out of it, of one
race or ethnic group or another, literate or illiterate, native born or foreign
born, and so on are of basic importance in nearly all of mankind’s
undertakings. ……………………Dozens of needs for the population may be
listed, for virtually all questions of public policy have their population
aspects.
• This is true at the local, state, national or even international levels.
 Demography- importance
• At the national level, information about the number of inhabitants
and their characteristics and recent trends affecting each are basic
to the formulation of policies relating to commerce and industry,
immigration, education, social security, health insurance, taxation
etc.
• At the State level, population facts and principles are of
fundamental importance in connection with plans and policies
related to welfare measures, education, construction, etc. Even at
the local level, the knowledge about the people involved is essential
in the intelligent shaping of public policies. Questions such as those
related to the location of schools, locating/building hospitals,
planning and improvement of roads etc. must all be studied in close
relationships with population facts and trends. Thus it can be
contended that comprehensive, tested facts about people, their
numbers and their characteristics are among the materials most
useful to modern societies.
 Demography -uses
The demographic statistics can be used to describe
• distribution of population in space,
• its density and
• degree of concentration,
• the fluctuations in its rate of growth,
• its movements from one place to another, and
• the force of natality, nuptiality and mortality within it.
• The statistics have many and increasingly varied applications. The fields of
application include public health, local planning for land use, scholl and
hospital construction, public utilities etc., marketing, man power analysis,
framing planning programs, land settlement, and many others.
• An analysis of current demographic levels and past trends is the necessary
first step in the construction of population forecasts that in turn form the
underpinning of national plans for economic development and other
programmes, including explicit population policies.
 Demography
• Population changes,
• the structure of existing and future populations,
and their character and
• behaviour, are all very significant in almost all
areas of town and country planning.
• It is the basis for housing and employment
studies and is a key factor for transport planning.
• It is important for recreation and leisure, and
economic development, as well as government
funding for local authorities, health authorities,
utility planning and infrastructure.
 Demography
• It is often asked where the jobs are coming from to
accommodate and satisfy a rising population.
• Alongside this, there is a need to house a rising
population with the correct housing type and tenure.
• The biggest unknown when it comes to the
demographic future is migration.
• Will the tightened housing market not just restrict
movement but change its patterns? Will benefit cuts
reduce or impel movement?
• Will student fees depress the housing market by keeping
young people at home for longer? These are just some of
the questions posed by demographic change. Moving
people around as a result of growth often requires
innovative solutions.
 Determinants of population growth
• Fertility, mortality and migration are
principal determinants of population
growth. Population change depends on the
natural increase changes seen in birth rates
and the change seen in migration. Changes
in population size can be predicted based on
changes in fertility (births), mortality (deaths)
and migration rates.
 Population change
• Core of demographic studies has three component
concerns:
1. Births
2. Deaths &
3. Migration.
 Population change
All of demography can be reduced to this simple formula
called the components of change method:
• (Births-Deaths) +/- (In-Migration - Out Migration) =
Population Change.
• (Births-Deaths) is called Natural Increase, or all births
minus all the deaths in a given population over a given
time period.
• (In-Migration) - (Out Migration) is called Net
Migration, which is all the migration in minus all the
out-migration in a given population over a given time
period.
 Population change
• Population Change is then added to a
previous year's population to yield new
population estimate.
• CURRENT POPULATION = PREVIOUS YEARS
POPULATION + POPULATION CHANGE
10 Most Populated Countries in World,
2013 & 2050
 Population composition
• A demographic “snapshot” of a population based
on the birth rate, migration, and mortality rate.
 Population composition
• A population’s composition may be described in terms of basic
demographic features –
• age,
• sex,
• family and household status – &
• by features of the population’s social and economic context –
language,
• education,
• occupation,
• ethnicity,
• religion,
• income and wealth.
•
 Population composition
• The distribution of populations can be defined
at multiple levels
• (local, regional,
• national, global) &
• with different types of boundaries
• (political, economic, geographic).
• Demography is a central component of societal
contexts and social change.
 Population pyramid
• A graphic representing a population’s distribution
according to age and sex.
AGE-SEX PYRAMID
 What do demographers do?
What demographers do goes well beyond this broad definition and draws
extensively from related disciplines – sociology, economics, statistics,
history, political science, anthropology, psychology, public health and
environmental sciences.
A sampling of topics from the recent European Population Conference
illustrates demography’s breadth:
• Fertility, Families and Households
• Ageing and Intergenerational Relations
• Internal Migration and Urbanization
• Mortality and Longevity
• Economics, Human Capital and Labour Markets
• Development and Environment
• Integration processes of migrant populations
• Health inequalities at older ages
• Population and the welfare state
• Population projections of small areas and special groups
• Religion and demographic behavior
 What do demographers do?

• Demography is very useful for understanding

social and economic problems and identifying
potential solutions.
• Demographers are engaged in social planning,
market research, insurance forecasting, labor
market analysis, economic development and so
on.
• They work for private firms and public agencies at
local, regional, national and international levels.
 Baby boom generation
• After World War II, the United States began to recover from
the long-term negative effects of the war.
• Families had been separated, relatives died or were injured,
and women who had gone to the factories then returned
home.
• For about 4 years the government had assumed war time
powers, goods and services were rationed.
• This assumption of power limited the civil rights of the
average citizen. It was an era of social and cultural upheaval.
• The year 1946 reflected the impact of that upheaval in its
very atypical demographic statistics. Starting in 1946 people
married younger, had more children per woman, divorced
then remarried again, and kept having children.
•
 Baby boom generation
• From 1946 to 1956 the birth rate rose, peaked, and
then began to decline. By 1964 the national birth rate
was back to the level it was in 1946. The millions of
children born from 1946-1964 were called the Baby
Boom Generation
• millions of deaths caused by the war, the long-term
separation of family members from one another, and
the deep shifts toward conservative values all
contributed to the baby boom.
• After Baby Boom Generation it conversely affected
personal and larger social levels of society in every
conceivable way.
Population of United States for selected yrs. 1790-2013
 Zero population growth (ZPG)
• When birth rates equal death rates either locally or
globally.
• BIRTH RATE =DEATH RATE

• When the amount of individuals entering a

given population through birth or immigration are
the same amount leaving the population through
death or emigration.
• Population increase due to births/immigration =
Population change due to deaths/ emigration
 Statistics
• The scientific discipline that deals with the
assemblage, organization, analysis,
interpretation, and presentation of
numerical data.
 Birth rate
• The rate of live births in a population over a
year, typically expressed per 1,000.
 Crude Birth Rate
• Crude Birth Rate- number of live births per 1,000 people
living in the population. It is called crude because it ignores
age-specific risks of getting pregnant.
 Death rate
• The rate of deaths in a population over a year
expressed per 1000.

BR- Birth Rate

DR –Death Rate
NI- Natural Increase
 Fertility rate
• Average number (rate) of children born to a
woman in a population over her reproductive
lifetime.
• Total Fertility Rate is the total no: of children
ever born to a woman calculated both
individually and at the societal level.
• Fecundity is the physiological ability to
conceive or give birth to children.
Fertility rate
 Fertility rate
• two distinct perspectives that relate to births in a
population.
• Antinatalist is a perspective which opposes childbearing.
• Pronatalist is a perspective which promotes birth and
increased population. Pronatalists support birth, large
families, extended families, and the governmental
support of childbearing.
• Antinatalists oppose birth, support contraceptive,
abortions, and sterilization along with the education of
women.
• Educating a woman is the most effective way of
lowering her fertility.
 Population Characteristics
The population has the following characteristics:
• Population Size and Density:
• Population dispersion or spatial distribution:
• Age structure
• Natality (birth rate)
• Mortality (death rate)
• Vital index and survivorship curves
• Biotic Potential
• Life tables
 Source of demographic data
1. Population census,
2. Civil Registration systems,
3. Sample registration systems etc
 1) Population census

• Population Census has been a major source

for collecting data pertaining to the
population count of the country, its
composition and other features.
• In this huge exercise requiring massive
resources, maintaining the quality - both in
terms of coverage and content - is a
challenging task and deficiencies and errors
can’t be ruled out.
 Population census
• Census Organisation has the tradition of evaluating the
results of the Population Census through Post
Enumeration Surveys (PES), known also as Post
Enumeration Checks (PEC). Such surveys have been
conducted every time after each census since 1951.
• Its main objective is consciously to quantify the omission
and duplication in the census enumeration as well as to
measure the response errors in respect of certain selected
characteristics canvassed in the census.
• The results of the PES are important in throwing light to
the areas of census operations which would need attention
including the concepts and definitions employed,
procedures of enumeration and related instructions to the
field staff etc.
 Census of India

• Census of India
• defines settlements having the following
characteristics as urban areas:
• (a) a population of five thousand or more;
• (b) a minimum density of 1,000 people per
square mile or 400 persons per square
• kilometer; and
• (c) at least seventy five percent of work force
outside agriculture.
Census of India
 Census of India

• In India, a city is a more specific term referring

to a town with a population of 100,000 or
more.
• In general, urban agglomerations are areas of
1 million population or more,
 Census of India

An UA(Urban Agglomeration), according to the Census of

India, is one with the following characteristics:
a) A city or town with continuous outgrowth(s), the
outgrowth being outside the statutory limits, but
located within the boundaries of the adjoining village
or villages or
b) Two or more adjoining towns with their outgrowth(s);
or
c) A city with one or more adjoining towns with their
outgrowths all of which form a continuous spread.
 Census of India

• Growth in ULBs is the same as the growth of

UAs in the country (at 2.4 percent during
1991-2001), which implies that Indian urban
growth is neither intensive nor extensive
 Source of demographic data
2) Civil Registration system
• Under a central Act for both Birth & Death
• Implementation is decentralized
• Registration at the place of occurrence of
event
• Based on informant reporting structure
• -head of household (home events) &
• -Institutional heads (institutional events)
 Civil Registration system
• Status of CRS in India
• More than 250 thousands of registration centers
• Estimated births per year is 26 million
• Estimated deaths per year is 8 million
• Level of Registration of Birth is 81%
• Level of registration of Death is 67%
• Level of registration among States varies from
45% to 100%
 Civil Registration system
• Key Stakeholders
• Health department of Central & State
Government
• National & State Statistical Offices
• Finance & Planning Departments
• International organizations & NGOs like
UNICEF, UNFPA, WHO & PLAN-India
• And above all, citizens of country
Civil Registration system
 Civil Registration system
• Challenges in Registration
• Improving death registration
• Lack of awareness & low demand because of
delinking of birth certificates from basic services
• Low level of coordination among concerned
departments
• Inadequate budget provisions by state
governments
• Need for enhancing IT infrastructure at lowest
level
 Civil Registration system
• Road map
• Linking of Governments welfare schemes with
birth certificates
• Computerized registration
• Ensure registration of all institutional births &
deaths
• Use of CRS data for computing vital statistics &
Planning
• Effective advocacy & monitoring
 3) Sample Registration System (SRS)
• Sample Registration System (SRS) is a large-scale
demographic survey for providing reliable annual estimates
of Infant mortality rate, birth rate, death rate and other
fertility & mortality indicators at the national and
subnational levels. Initiated on a pilot basis by the Office of
the Registrar General, India in a few selected states in 1964-
65, it became fully operational during 1969-70 with about
3700 sample units. The field investigation consists of
continuous enumeration of births and deaths in selected
sample units by resident part time enumerators, generally
anganwadi workers & teachers, and an independent survey
every six months by SRS supervisors. The data obtained by
these two independent functionaries are matched.
 Sample Registration System (SRS)
• The sample unit in rural areas is a village or a
segment of it (if the village population is 2000 or
more). In urban areas, the sampling unit is a
census enumeration block with population
ranging from 750 to 1000. The SRS sample is
replaced every ten years based on the latest
census frame. The current Sample is based on the
2011 Census frame. At present, SRS is operational
in 8850 sample units (4,961 rural and 3,889
urban) covering about 7.9 million population,
spread across all States and Union territories.
Sample Registration System (SRS)
 Sample Registration System (SRS)
• Birth Rate
• Birth Rate is a crude measure of fertility of a population and is a
crucial determinant of population growth. The Birth Rate at all India
level has declined drastically over the last four decades from 36.9 in
1971 to 20.2 in 2017. The rural-urban differential has also narrowed
over these years. However, the birth rate has continued to be
higher in rural areas compared to urban areas in the last four
decades. In the last decade, the rate of decline has been around
10.7% in rural areas and 9.2% in urban areas. The Figure-2 states
that Birth rate at all India level has declined from 22.8 to 20.2 in last
decade. The corresponding decline in rural area is 24.4 to 21.8 and
for urban areas it is from 18.5 to 16.8. In 2017, the birth rate for
India varies from 16.8 in urban regions to 21.8 in rural regions. The
highest birth rate has been recorded in Bihar (26.4) while the
lowest in Andaman & Nicobar Islands (11.4).
 Sample Registration System (SRS)

In 2017, the highest Birth Rate has been observed at 26.4 in Bihar, whereas Andaman &
Nicobar Islands has the lowest Birth Rate of 11.4.
 Sample Registration System (SRS)
• Death Rate
• Mortality is one of the basic components of population change and the
related data is essential for demographic studies and public health
administration. Death rate is one of the simplest measures of mortality
and is defined as the number of deaths per thousand population in a given
region and time period. The death rate of India has witnessed a significant
decline over the last four decades from 14.9 in 1971 to 6.3 in 2017. The
decline has been steeper in rural areas as compared to urban areas.
Figure-3 states that Death rate at all India level has declined from 7.4 to
6.3 in last decade. The corresponding decline in rural area is 8.0 to 6.8 and
for urban areas it is from 5.9 to 5.3. The rate of decline in these years has
been higher in rural areas (around 14.5%) than in the urban areas (10.5%).
For the year 2017, the death rate for India varies from 5.3 in urban areas
to 6.9 in rural areas. The death rate for the States/Union Territories ranges
from 3.6 in Nagaland to 7.5 in Chhattisgarh for 2017.
 Sample Registration System (SRS)

In 2017, Chhattisgarh has recorded the highest Death Rate of 7.5, whereas the lowest
Death Rate has been recorded in Nagaland at 3.6.
 Sample Registration System (SRS)
• Infant Mortality Rate
• The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), which is widely accepted as a crude
indicator of the overall health scenario of a country or a region, is defined
as the infant deaths (less than one year) per thousand live births in a given
time period and for a given region. The present level of IMR (33 infant
deaths per thousand live births, for the year 2017) is about one-fourth as
compared to 1971 (129 infant deaths per thousand live births). In the last
ten years, IMR has witnessed a decline of about 36.7% in rural areas and
about 36% in urban areas. The Figure-4 states that IMR at all India level
has declined from 53 to 33 in last decade. The corresponding decline in
rural area is 58 to 37 and for urban areas it is from 36 to 23. Despite the
decline in IMR over the last decades, one in every 30 infants die at the
National level (irrespective of rural-urban), one in every 27 infants in rural
areas and one in every 43 infants in urban areas still die within one year of
life. Among the States/Union Territories, the IMR ranges from 7 in
Nagaland to 47 in Madhya Pradesh for 2017.
 Sample Registration System (SRS)

In 2017, the maximum IMR has been reported for Madhya Pradesh (47) and the minimum
for Nagaland (7)
 Sample Registration System (SRS)
• Published and issued by Vital Statistics
Division, Office of the Registrar General, India,
Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India, West
Block 1, Wing 1, 2nd Floor, R. K. Puram, New
Delhi-110 066 Phone: (91) (11) 26100678
Website link:
http://www.censusindia.gov.in/vital_statistics
/SRS_Bulletins/Bulletins.html
 Occupational structure
• The occupation has been divided into three types,
Agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, fishery etc., are
collectively known as “primary” activities.
• Manufacturing industries, both small and large scale,
are known as “secondary” activities.
• Transport, communications, banking and finance and
services are “tertiary activities” in the country.
• The occupational structure of a country refers to the
distribution or division of its population according to
different occupations.
Occupational structure
 Occupational structure
• Table 1 reveals that higher per capita income is
inversely correlated with the proportion of active
population engaged in agriculture. The advanced
countries like the U.S.A., the U.K., Germany and
Japan with a low proportion of active population
dependent on agriculture reveal a higher per
capita income. As against them, an
underdeveloped country like India with a higher
proportion of active population engaged in
agriculture has very low per capita income.
Occupational structure
 Occupational structure
• Data provided in table 3 based on the various
rounds of the National Sample Survey reveals
that the share of workforce deployed in
agriculture declined from 74 per cent in 1972-73
to about 53.2 per cent in 2009-10. Along with this
declines, the share of employment in industry
increased from 11.2 per cent in 1972-73 to 14.9
per cent in 1993-94 and further to 21.5 per cent
in 2009-10. Also the share of services in total
employment increased from 14.6 per cent in
1972-73 to 25.4 per cent in 2009-10.
POPULATION
EXPLOSION
 POPULATION EXPLOSION
• DEMOGRAPHY – SCIENCE OF • Q. Calculate %
POPULATION
increase in population
• POPULATION- total no: of people in a of India from 1991 to
given area, in a given time
2001?
• % increase in population= • (Given 1991 –
• Decadal increase in population X 100
Base population 847million&
Population growth rate – no: of persons
• 2001 – 1027 million)
added to (or subtracted from) a
population in a yr due to natural
increase or net migration
 POPULATION EXPLOSION
• DISCUSS REASONS
FOR POPULATION
• POPULATION EXPLOSION EXPLOSION?????????
• – HIGH POPULATION ?
GROWTH LEADING TO
DEPLETION OF
RESOURCES

• AFFECTS SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
 CAUSE

• FACTORS LEADING TO POPULATION EXPLOSION?????

• INDUSTRIAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS -

NEW TECHNOLOGIES ----------------------
• brought down death rate because of vastly improved
Medicare resulting in increased life expectancies – AGEING
POPULATION
• Also facilitated increased food production to take care of
food needs of increasing population. – REDUCE DEATHS
DUE TO STARVATION
 EFFECTS ???
• PROBLEMS OF POPULATION EXPLOSION
• increasing pressure on limited resources of country.
• With growth of food grains not keeping pace with increase in
population during some years because of unfavourable weather
conditions, the spectre of hunger hunts millions of households
 POPULATION EXPLOSION
- world scenario
• WORLD POPULATION
• NO: OF COUNTRIES IN
• 6.16 BILLION (2001) WORLD – 251
• 6.9 BILLION (2011)
• 7 BILLION (Oct 2011(UN)) • TOTAL SURFACE AREA OF
EARTH – 5.1 X 108

• MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY

IN WORLD - CHINA
POPULATION EXPLOSION – world scenario
• GLOBAL POPULATION
ENTERED 20TH C. WITH
1.6 BILLION PEOPLE &
• LEFT THE CENTURY
6.1 billion(2001) WITH 6.1 BILLION
POPULATION

• 2001- 6.1 billion

1.6 billion(1900) • 2011 – 7 billion

• 1 billion is added
between 2001- 2011
• (possibility of >10
billion by 2050)
 WORLD POPULATION
DISTRIBUTION
• With agri revolution- • ASIA – 20.3 % OF
conc. of population in EARTHS SURFACE
certain areas • BUT 58.3 % OF WORLD
• With urban revolution – POPULATION LIVE IN
conc. along river valleys – ASIA
River valley civilization
• Classical period – conc. of
population in Greece & • N & S AMERICA –
Rome OCCUPY 30.98%
EARTHS SURFACE
• Medieval period – • BUT ONLY 13.82% LIVE
christian era – conc of THERE
population in Rome, Asia
 WORLD POPULATION DISTRIBUTION

• RANKING OF COUNTRIES
1 China 1.347 billion BASED ON POPULATION
• (2011)
2 India 1.210 billion

3 United States 315 million

4 Indonesia 237million
5 Brazil 193million
6 Pakistan 181million
7 Nigeria 166million
8 Bangladesh 152million
9 Russia 143million
10 Japan 127million
 WORLD POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
• HIGHEST POPULATION • Lowest population
DENSITY (PEOPLE/ density in world –
SQ.KM) Mongolia (2 persons/
• - ASIA (101 persons / sq.km)2011
sq.km)
• Followed by ----------
• Europe (99)
• Africa (18 p/sq.km)
• America (16 p/sq.km)
• U.S.S.R (12 p/sq.km)
 DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
• SOURCES OF
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 3) SAMPLE SURVEY

1) POPULATION CENSUS 4) DUAL REPORT

SYSTEM
• (BOTH VITAL
2) VITAL STATISTICS
STATISTICS &
• - VITAL RATES SAMPLE SURVEY)
• BIRTH RATE
• DEATH RATE
 PQLI
• It is determined mainly by
• PHYSICAL QUALITY OF applying indices of
LIFE INDEX population
1. Infant mortality rate
(IMR)- rate of mortality of
infant upto 1 yr
• Developed by Morris & 2. Literacy rate
Mc Alpin 3. Birth rate
4. Death rate
• Index to determine
poorest of poor IF LOW INFANT MORTALITY
RATE, HIGH LITERACY RATE.
HIGH BIRTH RATE & LOW
DEATH RATE----PQLI WILL BE
• PQLI measures social HIGH
development levels
 PQLI
• It is a corrective measure or
tool to improve standard of
living • PQLI IS BASED ON LIFE
EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (AGE
• 1990 – 11 % of worlds popu SPAN OF PERSONS) ADULT
lived in countries with LITERACY, MORTALITY RATES &
PQLI av < 50 % BIRTH RATES

2001
India -------- PQLI RATING- 43
Kerala---PQLI rating – 68 to 70
• Reasons for high PQLI in Kerala
Some developing countries (eg: • High literacy
Sree lanka) had PQLI- 82(due to • Better public health
high medical attention)
 POPULATION EXPLOSION IN INDIA
• 16 % of world’s population in
India
• Second largest in terms of
16% OF WORLDS POPU
population in world.
ON 2.4% GLOBE’S AREA
• GLOBAL POPULATION
INCREASED 3 TIMES DURING
20TH C. – 1.6 billion to 6.1billion
• INDIA’S POPULATION
INCREASED 5 TIMES
• 23.8 crores(1990) to
102.7crores(2001)

• 102.7 crores - 1.027 billion (2001)

• - 1.21 billion (2011)
 POPULATION EXPLOSION IN INDIA

• FACTS ABOUT POPULATION

EXPLOSION IN INDIA

1. EVERY 6TH PERSON IN GLOBE

TODAY IS AN INDIAN
2. BY 2100 – EVERY 5TH PERSON IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN INDIAN
3. BY 2030 – IT IS EXPECTED THAT
INDIA WOULD OVERTAKE CHINA

RATE OF ANNUAL POPU. GROWTH IN

CHINA- 2 to 2.1 %

RATE OF ANNUAL POPU. GROWTH IN

INDIA – 3 %
 POPULATION EXPLOSION IN INDIA
• POPULATION OF INDIA
• ADDITION TO INDIA’S IS INCREASING AT A
POPULATION IS RATE OF 15.5 million/ yr
EQUIVALENT TO

• HIGHEST ANTICIPATED
• - CHANDIGARH IN EVERY
9 DAYS
INCREASE IN POPU. IS
IN U.P.
• - 2 BHOPALS IN A MONTH
• - AUSTRALIA IN EVERY 8
MONTHS
 CAUSES OF POPULATION
GROWTH IN INDIA
• WIDENING GAP BETWEEN • MIGRATION – push –
BIRTH & DEATH RATE pull factors
• High birth rate & low
death rate
• Pull factors – attractive
factors eg:better
• POVERTY – cause & education, more
effect of Popu. Growth. employment,
industrialisation
• Poor people produce
more children for • Push factors – repulsive
increasing family income factors eg: poverty,
slum, unemployment,
conflict, natural hazard
 CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN
INDIA
• CHILD MARRIAGE – low • JOINT FAMILY SYSTEM
age of marriage affects • Bringing up children was
population socially & not a problem
emotionally • Nuclear family- it is
problem
• IMR (Infant Mortality
Rate) is related to age of
women at marriage • ILLITERACY – lack of
education
• Lack of female education
 CAUSES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN
INDIA
• RELIGIOUS & SOCIAL
VALUES
• Traditional sys & • IMMOBILITY OF POPULATION IN
INDIA
customs • Less mobile population
• Less social awakening • Due to diversity in language &
culture
• Predominance of agri. sector
• Caste system
• LACK OF DESIRE FOR • Closer family ties& relationships
HIGHER LIVING compared to other nations
STANDARDS
 EFFECTS OF POPULATION
GROWTH IN INDIA
• Scarcity of land
• Food shortage • Slums & squatter
• Death due to starvation settlements
• Depletion of natural resources
• Over consumption of fossil
• Defforestation &
fuels – non renewable levelling of paddy
resources fields for
• Housing shortage construction
• Poverty
• Pollution – of land, water, air,
• Overburden on
soil & sound pollution infrastructure
• Unemployment & facilities
underemployment
 SOLUTIONS FOR POPULATION
EXPLOSION
• OPTIMUM USE OF EXISTING
FACILITIES
• FAMILY PLANNING
• Eg: Chinese approach of legally • RESOURCE MANAGEMENT- land/
limiting family size to one child- manpower/ financial resources
led to infant mortality of girl
babies to get boys • PROPER ENERGY UTILISATION –
• Chinese fertility rate – 2 % use of renewable resources
• Indias fertility rate – 3.6 %
• PROPER LAND UTILISATION
• POPULATION DISTRIBUTION • - prevent haphazard
• Avoid conc. of popu- organising development
& controlling use of available
space – LANDUSE • EVOLUTION OF APPROPRIATE
MANAGEMENT POLICYS – for sustainable
development
DEMOGRAPHIC HIERARCHY OF SETTLEMENTS
IN INDIA
1. METROPOLITAN CITIES- 1 million or more
2. One lakh cities - 1 lakh – 1 million
3. Intermediate towns – 50,000 – 99,999
4. Medium towns - 20,000 – 49,999
5. Towns – 10,000 – 19,999
6. Small towns – 5000 – 9999
7. Large villages – 2000 – 4999
8. Villages – 1000 – 1999
9. Small villages – 500 – 999
10.Hamlets – less than 500
 KERALA - POPULATION
• population – 3,33,88,000 (2011)
• state has lowest population growth rate;
3.44%

• population density - 819 persons per km2.

• Kerala has highest Human

Development Index (HDI) in India with
0.790 according to Human Development
Report 2011.

• Kerala has highest literacy rate -93.91%

• highest life expectancy- 74 years
• sex ratio - 1084 female per 1000 male

Population density map of Kerala

 KERALA - POPULATION
• Kerala - home to 3.44% of Population trend
India's population
Census Pop. %±
• Popu. Density - 819 persons per
km2, 1951 13,549,000 —
• Kerala - land is nearly 3 times as 1961 16,904,000 24.8%
densely settled as rest of India 1971 21,347,000 26.3%
• Population density of India -325 1981 25,454,000 19.2%
persons per km2 1991 29,099,000 14.3%
• Kerala's coastal regions are 2001 31,841,000 9.4%
most densely settled 2011 33,388,000 4.9%
• Eastern hills and mountains - Source: 2001 & 2011 Censuses of India
sparsely populated
Population of Kerala
 HDI •
•
Reasons
Higher spending of govt in primary
level education,
• health care &
• elimination of poverty from 19th
century onward had helped the state
• HUMAN to keep a very high HDI;
• HDI report was prepared by
DEVELOPMENT central government's Institute of
INDEX Applied Manpower Research.

• Human Development Report, 2005

• 2011 - Kerala has a prepared by Centre for Development
HDI of 0.790 which Studies (CDS)
comes under "very • Advancement in human development
had already started aiding economic
high" category and it development of Kerala
is highest in India.
Purpose of population projection
General issues/principles
Methods of estimation & projection
 Projections - Methodology
• Projection methodologies can be divided
into two main categories:
– procedures for projecting the population
considering fertility, mortality, and
migration, by age and sex (component
method)
– procedures for projecting the population
using mathematical functions applied to
population figures but not to each of the
components (ratio method)
105
 Projections - Methodology
• Cohort component - projects separately, the
components of population change (fertility,
mortality & net migration)
– Where HIV prevalence > 1%, mortality should be
projected to include impact of HIV/AIDS impact

• Ratio method – adjusts a population

distribution to an assigned total in proportion
to the frequencies in this distribution

106
 Projections - Methodology
• Although many of the factors affecting the
methodology and analysis of population
projections are the same for all geographic
areas, there are important differences as well
– Data are more readily available & more reliable
at national than at sub-national level
– Migration typically plays a greater role in pop.
growth at sub-national than at national level
– Population growth rates are generally more
variable at sub-national than at national level
• Hence, choices regarding data, techniques,
and assumptions may be different for
projections at one geographic level than for
projections at another
 Projections - Methodology
• In the cohort-component method, the main
difference between national and sub-national
projections is the addition of the component
on internal migration
• Although an assumption that future
international migration will be negligible can
be justified for many countries, internal
migration plays a significant role in almost
every country, and at the sub-national level, it
is often the most important and complex
component of population change
 Cohort component method

• This method simulates how a population

changes according to its components of
growth: fertility, mortality, and migration
• Based on past information, assumptions are
made about future trends in these
components of change
• Then, the projected rates are applied to the
age and sex structure of the population, in
a simulation taking into account that people
die according to their sex and age, that
women have children, and that some
people change their residence
109
 Cohort component method

• Base population is grouped into cohorts

defined by age and sex

• The projection proceeds by updating the

population of each age- and sex-specific

group according to assumptions about

three components of population change

110
 Cohort component method

• Each cohort survives forward to the next

age group according to assumed ASMRs
• Migration is accounted for by applying age-
and sex-specific net migration rates to each
cohort as well
• Projected ASFRs rates are applied to the
female population in childbearing ages to
estimate the number of births

111
 Cohort component method

• A sex ratio at birth is used to divide total

births into males and females

• These births are exposed to the

appropriate mortality schedule and then

the survivors fed into the projection

model
112
 Cohort component method

• Time span
– No standard time span over which a
projection should be made
– Select a span that is equal to the maximum
length of time required for completion of the
planned activities
– NB: the longer the time span, the greater the
potential deviation of the projected from the
actual population
• It is usually most convenient to project
population by time intervals equal to the
age intervals
113
 Ratio method

• Ratio method is applied mainly for

projecting the population of small areas
within a country for which all inputs
required by the component method are not
always readily available

• The method is also useful in the projection

of urban and rural populations

114
 Ratio method

• This method is used where an area containing

the population to be projected (say district) is
part of a larger (“parent”) area for which
projections are available
• The small areas should exist in a perfect
hierarchical structure - where geographic units at
each level are mutually exclusive & exhaustive and can
be aggregated to higher levels, culminating in one all-
inclusive unit
• The main drawback of this method is that it
assumes that all the smaller areas will grow at
the same rate as the parent area
115
 Ratio method

• After the ratio of the district to national

population is obtained, assumptions are
made on the future values of these
ratios
• Once the future values of ratios are
fixed, the population of the district can
be obtained by applying those ratios to
the projected national population in
respective years
116
 Ratio method
Year 2001 2006 2011 2016

National 640054 708185 773854 840603

population (P1) (P2) (P3) (P4)

District 78855 - - -
population

Ratio of 0.1232 - - -
district to (X1)
ntl pop,
2001
Projected 87248 95338 103562
district (P2 x X1) (P3 x X1) (P4 x X1)
pop
117
 Ratio method

• Once the projection for each small area has

been made, ensure the sum of the
population of all small areas tallies with the
national total

• Using the national total as a control, adjust

proportionally the projections of the small
areas

118
 Population projection

• There is no single method or technique that

can improve accuracy

• Accuracy depends on the quality of the input

data and the assumptions made about the

course of future change

119
 Population projection

• Identifying which projection method is optimal

for a specific type of projection depends on
several factors
• Of crucial importance is whether the projections
are to be carried out for larger geographical
areas (e.g. nations and groups of countries)
where uncertainty is lower, or smaller areas
(e.g. sub-national, urban) where migration
makes future population changes more volatile
and projections more difficult

120
POPULATION PROJECTION - Arithmetic increase method
Arithmetic increase method
 Population Forecast by Different
Methods
• Problem: Predict the population for the years 1981,
1991, 1994, and 2001 from the following census
figures of a town by different methods.
Population Forecast by Different
Methods
Arithmetical
Progression
method
Incremental Increase Method
Geometric
Progression
Method
Population estimation vs.
Population Projection
Projection Outputs
 Migration
• Migration has been a historical process
shaping human history, economy and culture.
It re-emerged as a strong force shaping cities
and urbanization since the time of industrial
revolution in western countries, and is closely
associated with urban transition influencing
the demand and supply of labour, economic
growth and human wellbeing (McKeown
2004; Skeldon 2008).
Migration
 Development impact of migration
• The experience of many developing countries shows that migration has
tremendous potential to improve human development (UNDP 2009; IOM
2015). At present, ‘more than a billion people rely on international and
internal migration to escape poverty and conflict, adapt to environmental
and economic shocks, and improve the income, health, and education of
their families. Annual remittances to developing countries alone approach
$500 billion, triple the amount of official development assistance (ODA)
(Sutherland 2013). Adams and Page (2005) show that a 10 percent
increase in per capita international remittances in a developing country
can lead to a 3.5 percent decline in the share of people living in poverty.
Thus, studies confirm that migration is an important pathway out of
poverty. However, compared with international migration, internal
migration offers more opportunities of increasing income and
convergence of welfare, although it is less emphasized (Skeldon 2008;
World Bank 2009; Bhagat 2016). On the other hand, in the context of
India, emigration also enhances social prestige and family status which is
less emphasized as researchers are mainly concerned with economic gains
(Bhagat el al 2017).
 Migration
• Migration is also a process of skill formation.
Many migrants bring their relatives, friends and
covillagers once they have firmly established in
urban areas. Some migrants also upgrade their
skill level and learn two and more skills
(Deshinker and Akter 2009; Bhagat 2014). Among
emigrants, about onethird returns to India. They
are the potential source of knowledge and skill
transfer (Bhagat et al 2017). The studies on social
remittances are lacking and the reintegration of
returnees with the development is gaining
attention in India.
Migration
 Migration
• However, migration is not viewed positively in India and
policies are often aimed at reducing rural to urban
migration.
• As a result there is a lack of integration of migration with
the process of development (Bhagat 2012; 2014).
• The Human Development Report by UNDP (2009) highlights
that migration is integral to the process of human
development.
• Migration has also emerged as a possible adaptive
mechanism in the context of climate change and the
occurrence of extreme weather events like floods,
droughts, and cyclones etc. (Foresight 2011; Rajan and
Bhagat Forthcoming).
Thankyou