ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

EE2A

COUNTING RULES

The probability of occurrence of an outcome was defined as the number of ways the outcome occurs,
divided by the total number of possible outcomes. In many instances, there are a large number of possible
outcomes, and determining the exact number can be difficult. In such circumstances, rules have been
developed for counting the number of possible outcomes. This section presents five different counting
rules.

COUNTING RULE 1
If any one of k different mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events can occur on each of n trials,
the number of possible outcomes is equal to 𝑘 𝑛

Example: Suppose you toss a coin five times. What is the number of different possible outcomes (the
sequences of heads and tails)?

Example: Suppose you roll a die twice. How many different possible outcomes can occur?

COUNTING RULE 2
If there are events on the first trial, 𝑘2 events on the second trial, . . . , and 𝑘𝑛 events on the nth trial, then
the number of possible outcomes is (𝑘1 )(𝑘2 ) … (𝑘𝑛 )

Example: A state motor vehicle department would like to know how many license plate numbers are
available if a license plate number consists of three letters followed by three numbers (0 through 9).

Example: A restaurant menu has a price-fixed complete dinner that consists of an appetizer, an entrée, a
beverage, and a dessert. You have a choice of five appetizers, ten entrées, three beverages, and six
desserts. Determine the total number of possible dinners.

The third counting rule involves computing the number of ways that a set of items can be arranged in order.

COUNTING RULE 3
The number of ways that all n items can be arranged in order is
𝑛! = (𝑛)(𝑛 − 1) … (1)
Where 𝑛! is called n factorial, and 0! is defined as 1.

Example: If a set of six books is to be placed on a shelf, in how many ways can the six books be arranged?

In many instances you need to know the number of ways in which a subset of an entire group of items can
be arranged in order. Each possible arrangement is called a permutation. It could be linear permutation,
circular, or permutation of things not all different.
COUNTING RULE 4: PERMUTATIONS

Linear Permutation
The number of ways of arranging X objects selected from n objects in order is
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑥 =
(𝑛 − 𝑥)!
Where n is the total number of objects, x is the number of objects to be arranged and P is the symbol for
permutations.

Circular Permutation

The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n-1)!

Permutation of Things Not All Different

The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of a second
kind,…,nk of kth kind is

n!
P
n1 ! n 2 !...n k !

Example: Modifying the previous example, if you have six books, but there is room for only four books on
the shelf, in how many ways can you arrange these books on the shelf in order?

Example: In a race with eight competitors, how many different possibilities are there for who finishes first,
second and third?

Example: In how many ways can 6 people be arranged in a round table?

Example: How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word “SATISFACTORY”?

Example: How many different numbers can be formed by rearranging 2212562?

In many situations, you are not interested in the order of the outcomes but only in the number of ways that
x items can be selected from n items, irrespective of order. Each possible selection is called a
combination.
COUNTING RULE 5: COMBINATIONS
The number of ways of selecting x objects from n objects, irrespective of order, is equal to
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑥 =
𝑥! (𝑛 − 𝑥)!
Where n is the total number of objects, x is the number of objects to be arranged and C is the symbol for
combinations.

Example: Modifying the previous example, if the order of the books on the shelf is irrelevant, in how many
ways can you arrange these books on the shelf?

Example: How many ways can a company select 3 candidates to interview from a short list of 15?

Example: In how many ways can a subcommittee of 5 be chosen from a panel of 20?

DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

Probability - the likelihood of an event occurring.

Probability experiment – a chance process that leads to well-defined results called outcomes. (i.e., some
mechanism that produces a set of outcomes in a random way).
Outcome – the result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
Sample space – the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example: What is the sample space for one flip of a coin?

Example: Suppose I roll two six-sided dice. What is the sample space for the possible outcomes?
Example: Example: Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards.

TREE DIAGRAM – a device consisting of line segments emanating from a starting point and also from the
outcome points. It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

Example: Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the sex of three children in a family.
Our outcome pertains to the sex of one child AND the second of the next child AND the sex of the third
child.

Event – consists of a set of possible outcomes of a probability experiment.

 Can be one outcome or more than one outcome.
 Simple event – an event with one outcome.
 Compound event – an event with more than one outcome.

Example: Roll a die and get a 6 (simple event).

Example: Roll a die and get an even number (compound event).

There are three basic interpretations or probability:

1. Classical probability
2. Experimental or relative frequency probability
3. Subjective probability
Theoretical (Classical) Probability – uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen.
 We do not actually perform the experiment to determine the theoretical probability.
 Assumes that all outcomes are equally likely to occur.

Formula for Classic Probability

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝐸 𝑛(𝐸)

The probability of an event E is 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 = 𝑛(𝑆)

where S denotes the sample space and n( )means “the number of outcomes in . . . ”

Rounding Rules for Probabilities – probabilities should be expressed as reduced fractions or rounded to
2-3 decimal places. If the probability is extremely small then round to the first nonzero digit.

Example: Consider a standard deck of 52 cards: Find the probability of selecting a queen?

Probability Rules
1. The Probability of an event E must be a number between 0 and 1. i.e., . 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐸) ≤ 1.
2. If an event E cannot occur, then its probability is 0.
3. If an event E must occur, then its probability is 1.
4. The sum of all probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space is 1.

Complementary Events

Complement of an event E - the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the
outcomes of event E. The complement of E is denoted by 𝐸̅ (“E bar”) or E’ (E prime).

Note: The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the complement make up the entire sample space.

Example: What is the complement of the following events?

1. Rolling a six-sided die and getting a 4?
2. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday?

Rule for Complementary Events:

𝑃(𝐸 ′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸)
Example: The probability of purchasing a defective light bulb is 12%. What is the probability of not
purchasing a defective light bulb?

Example: What is the probability of not selecting a club in a standard deck of 52 cards?
Empirical Probability – the relative frequency of an event occurring from a probability experiment over the
long-run.

 It relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of an outcome rather than assuming
equally likely outcomes.
 The Law of Large Numbers tells us that the as the number of trials increases the empirical
probability gets closer to the theoretical (true) probability.

 Because of the law of large numbers we will interpret the probability to be the “long-run” results
(which we know approximates the theoretical probability).
 The probability of a particular outcome is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a
long-run of observations.

Given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event being in a given class is:

𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓

𝑃(𝐸) = =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛

Example: Major Field of study

Class Frequency
Math 5
History 7
English 4
Science 9
Given the data above, what is the probability of being a math major? Science major?
Subjective Probability – uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing
opinions and inexact information.
 Often, you cannot “repeat” the probability experiment.

Example: What is the probability you will pass this class?

Example: What is the probability that you will get a certain job when you apply?

THE ADDITION RULES FOR PROBABILITY

There are times when we want to find the probability of two or more events. For example, when selecting a
card from a deck we may want to find the probability of selecting a card that is a four or red. In this case
there are 3 possibilities to consider:
 The card is a four
 The card is red
 The card is a four and red

Now consider selecting a card and we want to find the probability of selecting a card that is a spade or a
diamond. In this case there are only 2 possibilities to consider:
 The card is a spade
 The card is a diamond

Notice it can’t be both a spade and a diamond.

Mutually exclusive - Two events are mutually exclusive (disjoint) if they cannot occur at the same time.

Example:
Which events are mutually exclusive and which are not, when a single die is rolled?
1. Getting an odd number and getting an even number
2. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number
3. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
4. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4

Intersection – the intersection of events A and B are the outcomes that are in both A and B. If A and B
have outcomes intersecting each other than we say that they are non-mutually exclusive.

Union – the union of events A and B are all the outcomes that are in A, B, or both.

Example: Suppose we roll a six-sided die. Let A be that we roll an even number. Let B be that we roll a
number greater than 3.

 What is the intersection between A and B?

 What is the union of A and B?
Addition Rules (These apply to “or” statements.)

Rule 1: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Rule 2: For ANY two outcomes A and B,
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Note: In probability “A or B” denotes that A occurs, or B occurs, or both occur!

Example: At a political rally, there are 20 Republicans, 13 Democrats, and 6 Independents. If a person is
selected at random, find the probability that he or she is either a Democrat or an Independent?
Event A = a person is a democrat
Event B = a person is an independent