THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA

Fourth Population and Housing Census, Rwanda, 2012

Thematic Report

Population
Projections

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NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS OF RWANDA
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 THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA

Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning

National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda

Fourth Population and Housing Census, Rwanda, 2012

Thematic Report
Population Projections

January 2014

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The Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (2012 RPHC) was implemented by the National
Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). Field work was conducted from August 16 th to 30th, 2012. The
funding for the RPHC was provided by the Government of Rwanda, World Bank (WB), the UKAID (Former
DFID), European Union (EU), One UN, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and UN Women.

Additional information about the 2012 RPHC may be obtained from the NISR:
P.O. Box 6139, Kigali, Rwanda; Telephone: (250) 252 571 035
E-mail: [email protected]; Website: http://www.statistics.gov.rw.

Recommended citation:

National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
(MINECOFIN) [Rwanda], 2012. Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census.
Thematic Report: Population Projections

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Table of Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures ix
List of Abbreviations x
Foreword xiii
Acknowledgements xv
Executive Summary xvii
Chapter 1: Overview of the Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census 1
1.1 Context and justification 1
1.2 Legal and institutional frameworks 1
1.3 Census phases 2
Chapter 2: Justification and objectives of the population projections 3
2.1 Context 3
2.2 Justification of the population projections 3
2.3 Objectives of the population projections 5
2.3.1 Overall Objective 5
2.3.2 Specific Objectives 5
2.4 Definition of concepts and key indicators 5
Chapter 3: Analysis of the national demographic context 8
3.1 Source of data 8
3.2 Size and age-sex structure of the population 8
3.3 Population dynamics indicators 9
3.3.1 Levels and trends of fertility 9
3.3.2 Levels and trends of mortality 10
3.3.3 Levels and trends of migration 11
Chapter 4: Projections parameters, assumptions and scenarios 12
4.1 Projections parameters 12
4.1.1 Total, urban and rural population 12
4.1.2 Fertility 13
4.1.3 Mortality 14
4.2 Projections assumptions 15
4.2.1 Fertility 15
4.2.2 Mortality 16
4.2.3 International Migration 17
4.3 Scenarios of projections 17
4.4 Method of projections 17
Chapter 5: Projections of the total population 20
5.1 Population size 20
5.2 Population growth 21
5.3 Population density 22
5.4 Age-sex structure of the population 23
5.5 Fertility indicators 27
5.6 Mortality indicators 30

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Chapter 6: Projections of the urban population 32
6.1 Assessment of the current official target on urbanization 32
6.2 Size of the urban population 33
6.3 Age-sex structure of the urban population 33
6.4 Density of the urban population 36
Chapter 7: Projections of the rural population 37
7.1 Size of the rural population 37
7.2 Age-sex structure of the rural population 37
7.3 Density of the rural population 40
Chapter 8: Projections of specific interventions target groups 41
8.1 School-age population 41
8.2 Working-age population 42
8.3 Elderly population 43
8.4 Other specific interventions target groups 44
Chapter 9: Projections of the private households 47
9.1 Evolution of the number and size of the private households 47
9.2 Newly created private households 48
Conclusion 50
Policy implications 52
Annex A Census objectives, methodology and data quality assessment 55
A.1 Objectives of the Census 55
A.2 Methodology and Census phases 56
A.2.1 Census mapping 56
A.2.2 Pilot Census 56
A.2.3 Questionnaires and manuals 56
A.2.4 Census publicity and sensitisation campaign 57
A.2.5 Recruitment and training of field staff 57
A.2.6 Actual Census enumeration 58
A.2.7 Post-enumeration activities 59
A.3 Data quality assessment 60
Annex B Census questionnaire 61
B.1 Private households: person record 62
B.2 Private households: household record and mortality record 66
B.3 Institutional households: person record 67
Annex C Glossary of key terms and definitions 70
C.1 Population and demographic characteristics 70
C.2 Housing and household characteristics 72
C.3 Education 73
C.4 Employment/economic activity 74
C.5 Socio-cultural characteristics 75
Annex C: Supplementary tables 76

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List of Tables
Table 1: Trends in fertility from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys ................................. 10
Table 2: Trends in mortality indicators from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys ............. 11
Table 3: Age-sex structure of the total, urban and rural population at mid-year 2012 (July 1st, 2012) ..... 13
Table 4: Age-Specific Fertility Rates (%) and contribution to the general fertility ...................................... 14
Table 5: Trends in life expectancy at birth and average annual growth rates between 1978 and 2012 .... 14
Table 6: United Nations model of life expectancy improvement during a five-year period ........................ 15
Table 7: Evolution of the population size, 2012-2032 by projections scenarios......................................... 20
Table 8: Evolution of the population density, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ..................................... 23
Table 9: Age-sex distribution (count) of the population of Rwanda in 2032 by projection scenarios ......... 25
Table 10: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032, high scenario .......... 26
Table 11: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032, medium scenario .... 26
Table 12 Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032, low scenario .............. 27
Table 13: Evolution of key fertility indicators 2012-2032, by projection scenarios ....................................... 28
Table 14: Evolution of other key fertility indicators, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ............................... 30
Table 15: Evolution of key mortality indicators, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios .................................... 31
Table 16: Evolution of the size of the urban population, 2012-2020 by projection scenarios and Vision
2020 urbanization rate target........................................................................................................ 32
Table 17: Evolution of the size of the urban population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios 33
Table 18 Evolution of the age-sex structure of the urban population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios35
Table 19: Evolution of the density of the urban population by projection scenarios .................................... 36
Table 20: Evolution of the size of the rural population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ........................ 37
Table 21: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the rural population, 2012-2032 by projections scenario .. 39
Table 22: Evolution of the rural population density, 2012-2032 by projections scenario ............................. 40
Table 23: Evolution of the school-age population, 2012-2032 by level of education and area of residence
according to the medium projections scenario ............................................................................. 41
Table 24: Evolution of the working-age population, 2012-2032 by area of residence according to the
medium projections scenario ........................................................................................................ 42
Table 25: Evolution of the size of the elderly (60 years and above) between 2012 and 2032 by sex and
area of residence according to the medium projections scenario ................................................ 43
Table 26: Evolution of the size of the elderly (65 years and above) between 2012 and 2032 by sex and
area of residence according to the medium projections scenario ................................................ 44
Table 27: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of health interventions between 2012
and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium projections scenario ........................... 45
Table 28: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of children and youth interventions
between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium projections scenario ... 46
Table 29: Evolution of the size of relevant legal majority age-groups between 2012 and 2032 by area of
residence according to the medium projections scenario ............................................................ 46
Table 30: Evolution of the number and size of the private households and the newly created private
households between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium projections
scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 48
Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections
scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 76
Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections
scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 84
Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections
scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 92
Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario ....... 100
Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 101
Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 103
Table 37: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario ..... 105

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Table 38: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario108
Table 39: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario ...... 110
Table 40: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario ....... 112
Table 41: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario . 114
Table 42: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario 116
Table 43: Projections of the school-age population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections
scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 118
Table 44: Projections of the working-age population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections
scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 119
Table 45: Projections of the elderly (60 years and above), 2012-2032 according to the medium projections
scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 120
Table 46: Projections of the elderly (65 years and above), 2012-2032 according to the medium projections
scenario ..................................................................................................................................... 121
Table 47: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of health interventions between 2012
and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium projections scenario ......................... 122
Table 48: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of children and youth interventions
between 2012 and 2032 according to the medium projections scenario ................................... 123
Table 49: Evolution of the size of relevant legal majority age groups between 2012 and 2032 by area of
residence according to the medium projections scenario .......................................................... 124
Table 50: Projections of the number and size of the total private households and the newly created
households, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario 125
Table 51: Projections of the number and size of the urban private households and the newly created
households, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario .................................... 126
Table 52: Projections of the number and size of the rural private households and the newly created
households, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario 127

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List of Figures
Figure 1: Age pyramid of the resident population of Rwanda, 2012 ............................................................ 9
Figure 2: Evolution of the projected total population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ......................... 21
Figure 3: Evolution of the average annual growth rate, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios .........................
..................................................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 4: Evolution of the doubling time of the population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ................ 22
Figure 5: Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the Rwandan total population by projection
scenarios ..................................................................................................................................... 24
Figure 6: Evolution of the number of annual births, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios ........................... 29
Figure 7 Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the Rwandan urban population by projection
scenarios ..................................................................................................................................... 34
Figure 8: Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the rural population by projection scenarios . 38
Figure 9: Evolution of the age dependency ratio, 2012-2032 by area of residence according to the
medium projections scenario ....................................................................................................... 43
Figure 10: Evolution of the private households between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to
the medium projections scenario ................................................................................................. 47
Figure 11: Evolution of the annual newly created private households between 2013 and 2032 by area of
residence according to the medium projections scenario ........................................................... 49

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List of Abbreviations
AGR Annual Growth Rate

ASDR Age-Specific Death Rate

ASFR Age-Specific Fertility Rate

CBR Crude Birth rate

CDR Crude Death Rate

CPR Contraceptive Prevalence Rate

DemProj Computer Programs for Making Demographic (Population) Projections

DHS Demographic and Health Surveys

EDPRS Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy

EICV Enquête Intégrale sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages (Integrated Household
Living Conditions Survey)

EU European Union

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GFR General Fertility Rate

GRR Gross Reproduction Rate

ICPD-PoA Program of Action of the 1994 International Conference on Population and

Development

IMR Infant Mortality Rate

LEB Life Expectancy at Birth

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MIC Middle Income Country

MoH Ministry of Health

NISR National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda

NRR Net Reproduction Rate

ONAPO Office National de la Population

PHC Population and Housing Census

PRB Population Reference Bureau

RAPID Resources of the Awareness of Population Impacts

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RDHS Demographic and Health Surveys

RPHC4 Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census

SBR Standardized Birth Rate

TFR Total Fertility Rate

U5MR Under-Five Mortality Rate

UKAID United Kingdom Agency for International Development (formerly DFID)

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development Program

UNFPA United Nations Population Fund

UNICEF United Nations Children Fund

WB World Bank

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Executive Summary
Population projections are widely used virtually in all government sectors and private businesses
and they are inevitable for policy makers and programme managers. This is particularly the case in
Rwanda which is densely populated with exceptionally high population growth rate. The country
has experienced rapid demographic and social changes in the last two decades following the 1994
genocide. The objective of the present report is to analyse the 2012 Rwandan Population and
Housing Census (RPHC) data to project the national population and other specific intervention
target groups, and their size, density, age-sex structure, distribution in urban and rural areas, size
of private households and other related output indicators of fertility and mortality. Cohort
component projections are applied based on three scenarios (high, medium and low) formulated
using assumptions regarding future course of fertility and mortality, and reflecting on past trends
and other existing and future development policies. The medium assumption scenario is regarded
as the most likely projection.

The 2012 RPHC data recorded a total resident population of 10,515,973 inhabitants, with a slightly
higher representation of women (51.8%). Both fertility and mortality levels remain high, although
the rates have decreased substantially over the past decade. Indeed, under the current fertility
conditions, a Rwandan woman would have 4.0 children on average at the end of her reproductive
life when compared to a total fertility rate of 6.9 in 1991. The level of mortality has declined
considerably. In particular, the infant mortality rate dropped considerably from 120 per 1000 live
births in 1991 to 49 per 1000 in 2012 and the life expectancy at birth for both sexes has risen from
53.7 years in 1991 to 64.5 years in 2012.

The results from the population projections demonstrate evidence that in the next 20 years
Rwandan population will be considerably different in terms of size, structure and composition than
it is currently.

Size and density of future population

The Rwandan population is projected to increase from 10.5 million in 2012 to 16.9 million (high
scenario) to 16.3 million (medium scenario) or 15.4 million (low scenario) by 2032. The absolute
difference between the assumption scenarios is trivial, which suggests that the future size of
Rwandan population would be about approximately 50% more than the current population. A direct
consequence of this evolution is the unprecedented increase in population density, as high as 645
inhabitants per square kilometre according to the medium scenario. The population will be less
young with the median age increasing from 19 years in 2012 to 24 in 2032. The percentage of the
adult and the elderly aged 60 and above in the population will increase over time while the share of
the children is expected to decline in the future.

Evolution of fertility and mortality

Regardless of the projection scenarios, fertility rates will decrease in the next 20 years. The current
decline in fertility is assumed to continue over time with the total fertility rate decreasing from 4
children per woman to 3.5 (high scenario), 3 (medium scenario) and 2.5 (low scenario). The annual
number of births is projected to increase from 321,506 in 2012 to 389,087 in 2027 and thereafter it
will stand to 393,731 births. Mortality will also decrease, irrespective of the projection scenarios.
According to the medium scenario, life expectancy at birth is likely to increase from 64.5 years to

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71.4 years while infant mortality rate is likely to decrease from 48.6 to 27.7 per 1000 live births in
the next 20 years.

Evolution of the urban and rural population

The urbanization rate is expected to increase from 16.5% in 2012 to 30% in 2032. This rapid
growth is translated by the size of the urban population multiplied by a factor of three in the next 20
years: 1.7 million in 2012 to 4.9 million in 2032, according to the medium scenario. As for the
whole population, the urban population will be less young with a median age increasing from 22
years to 25 years between 2012 and 2032. The rural population will also increase but at a slower
pace than the urban population. According to the medium scenario, the rural population will be
11.4 million in 2032 compared to 8.7 million in 2012, equivalent to an increase rate of about 30%.
The rural population will also be less young with a median age increasing from 19 years to 23
years between 2012 and 2032.

Evolution of some specific interventions target groups

The size of certain population subgroups such as the school-age population, the working-age
population, the health interventions group, the elderly, the children and youth, and the legal age-
groups categories will increase substantially over the next 20 years, especially in urban areas. For
instance at the national level, the school-age population will increase from 4.3 million to 5.6 million
between 2012 and 2032, equivalent to an increase of 30% over 20 years with marked differences
by area of residence. The size of the working-age population aged 16-64 years in Rwanda will
increase from 5.6 million in 2012 to 9.8 million in 2032, corresponding to an increase rate of 75%.
This increase will be even greater in urban area where the working-age population will increase
threefold in twenty years. In contrast, the increase in rural area will be only 45%.

The size of the elderly aged 60 and above will more than double between 2012 and 2032. The
increase will be even more substantial in urban area where the number of the old people in 2032
will be 4.2 times greater than in 2012 while in the rural area the increase will be twofold. The
increase also varies by sex, regardless of the area of residence. The increase in relative terms will
be more accentuated among males than females at country and rural level than in urban area. For
instance at the country level, the increase in elderly population between 2012 and 2032 of males
will be 128% as compared to 106% among females.

Evolution of the private households

The number of private households will increase from 2.4 million to 5.3 million between 2012 and
2032. It will increase threefold in urban area whereas in rural areas this increase will be only 83%.
The mean size of the households will vary slightly, decreasing from 4.3 members per household to
3.1 in 2032 with little variations between urban and rural areas. The annual number of newly
created households will increase continuously over time: from about 94,000 in 2013 up to about
198,000in 2032.

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Policy implications

A significant threat to population and development in Rwanda is the increasing land pressure. The
country needs to put in place explicit policies to deal with the unavoidable and foreseeable
population overcrowding aside from the current policies aimed at reducing the population growth.
The expected growth of the urban population would exacerbate pressure on land, settlements,
physical infrastructure and resources. This would imply revisiting urban planning and monitoring
related interventions within the high population growth context, where appropriate giving attention
to the future development of new settlements including roads, transport networks, water and
electricity supply, health and educational facilities and other essential community facilities.

The growth rate and size of future youth and working-age population would pose additional
challenges in terms of generating sustainable employment and livelihood opportunities in both
urban and rural areas of Rwanda. The decline in fertility and improvements in adult and old age
survival rates would imply that the future dependency ratio will be sensitive to the decreasing
number of children and increasing number of elderly people in the population. This would have
implications on providing social support and healthcare and living arrangements of the elderly
population.

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Chapter 1: Overview of the Fourth Rwanda Population and
Housing Census
1.1 Context and justification
The history of the Population and Housing Census in Rwanda dates back to the 1970s. To date,
four modern censuses have successfully been conducted in Rwanda, in 1978, 1991, 2002 and
2012.

The 2002 Census collected a number of demographic and socio-economic characteristics and
indicated a total population of 8,128,553 people. Following the United Nations Decennial Census
Program, the 2012 Census is the Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (RPHC4). It
indicates that the country now has a total population of 10,515,973 people.

Besides the endorsement of recommendations from major international conferences held under
the auspices of the United Nations, the Government of Rwanda (GoR) has been focusing since
2000 on the long-term Vision 2020 that aims at transforming Rwanda into a middle-income
country. This is being implemented through the medium-term planning framework of the Economic
Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) for successive five-year periods. The
measurement of progress in implementing the EDPRS and the various UN recommendations calls
for the availability of demographic and socio-economic statistical data to inform the selected
indicators at different levels.

The RPHC4 is a reliable and comprehensive source of data, which compared to other official
statistics data sources (administrative data, surveys, etc.) allows for disaggregation to the lowest
geographical level.

The RPHC4 was undertaken to update the national mapping and demographic databases, to
provide indicators for monitoring poverty reduction strategies and achievement of international
development goals (MDGs, ICPD-PoA, NEPAD, etc.) and to strengthen the technical capacity of
the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR).

A more detailed discussion of the long- and short-term objectives of the Census is presented in
Annex A of this report.

1.2 Legal and institutional frameworks

As an essential precondition for Census execution, the legalization of its operations was secured
by a Presidential Decree officially establishing and determining the administrative organization of
the Census. In addition, a Ministerial Order of the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning has
set forth the official and statutory requirements for Census activities.

The institutional framework set up for implementing the RPHC4 consists of three main bodies: the
National Census Commission (NCC), the Census Technical Committee (CTC) and the
decentralized branches of the NCC at province and district levels.

In order to ensure focused functioning during the whole period of Census execution, a Census Unit
was created within the NISR, as an executing unit, and benefiting from other financial, logistical
and technical support services from the NISR.

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1.3 Census phases
Following the preparatory phase of the Census, which consisted of the production of the project
documents, schedule and Census budget, the following technical activities were undertaken:

 Census mapping;

 A Pilot Census;

 Questionnaire and manual development;

 Census publicity and sensitization campaign;

 Recruitment and training of field staff;

 Census enumeration; and

 Post-enumeration activities.

Further details on all Census phases can be found in Annex A of this report.

The success of the RPHC4 is attributable largely to the rigorous pre-Census planning and robust
Census enumeration monitoring undertaken by the NISR as well as the remarkable support
received from the Government and people of Rwanda and the generous technical and financial
assistance given by international development partners.

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Chapter 2: Justification and objectives of the population
projections
2.1 Context
Since the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has made considerable progress in restoring peace and
political stability, human development and social transformation. The enabling factors for this social
development are wide ranging including: strong political commitment, good governance,
accountability, effective decentralisation policies along with social reforms and programme
interventions. The establishment of new villages in rural areas (Umudugudu) through resettlement
programmes, universal health insurance scheme (Mutuelle de santé) and Economic Development
and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) are examples of successful social and health care
interventions in Rwanda (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 2013; May and Kamurase
2009).

Despite these achievements, Rwanda‟s future has been threatened by an exceptionally high rate
of population growth, which in turn has a negative consequence on physical and natural resources.
In fact, Rwanda is one of the countries in Africa with a high population density (PRB 2013), where
excessive population growth puts severe pressure on land, settlements and living conditions (NISR
2007). The country has since long time tried to integrate population issues into development
programs through various efforts including the redistribution of population and land, and has been
successful with direct interventions in reduce growth rate through effective family planning and
healthcare programmes (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 2013; NISR, MoH and ICF
International 2012; Singh et al. 2012; ONAPO 1990).

Since the last decade, the country has embarked on the implementation of multidimensional
population policies that includes several features such as land management, improving health
conditions of the population, universal access to healthcare including reproductive health and
family planning services, and interventions aimed at improving the levels of education for girls. In
2000, the government launched the Vision 2020 programme with the aim of reducing population
growth rate and to transform Rwanda into a middle income country with a target of reaching over
7% annual growth in GDP engaging service sectors, agriculture and industries as engines of
economic growth (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 2000).

It is in this context where past, current and future population data become critically important for
planning resources and monitoring developmental growth targets. More precisely, in order to
support national, regional and local planning, the country needs to generate timely and reliable
data to monitor social change, assess the impact of past interventions and integrate population
variables in future interventions.

2.2 Justification of the population projections

The Fourth Population and Housing Census (PHC) of Rwanda was conducted on 15th August
2012, ten years after the previous one (2002) as recommended by the United Nations in order to
provide the Rwandan Government, its development partners and all decentralized structures with
reliable and up-to-date data disaggregated down to the lowest geographical level needed for an
accurate description of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population.

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Population projections are inevitable tool for decision makers and planners. The government
ministries representing virtually all sectors, particularly health, education, transport, environment,
social welfare and housing, constantly seek projections of future demographic parameters for
planning purposes and resource allocation. These projections provide information on not only the
future total population, but also disaggregated by age for certain specific sub-groups of the
population such as school-age, working-age and elderly population, the female population in the
reproductive ages and the expected number of births, the number of new households to be
created, and other relevant estimates for designing healthcare interventions and economic
planning to improve the living conditions of the future population.

Population projections provide information on the future population size and structure based on a
set of assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality and migration. They yield key
population indicators needed for future planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of
various, social, economic and developmental policies and programmes of a country. This is
especially the case for the measurement of the progress made by Rwanda in implementing the
national Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS), progress towards the
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the goals of the Program of Action
of the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (UNDP 2008; NISR
2007). The progress made in these indicators reflected in recent national level data from large-
scale surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs), Integrated Household Living
Conditions Surveys (EICVs) and other data resources are crucial and should be integrated in
building realistic assumption regarding future development of fertility and mortality (Binagwaho et
al. 2013).

The future population size and structure are determined by the changes in fertility, mortality and
migration. This implies that, in order to determine the structure of the future population, projections
should consider cohorts defined by age and sex and make realistic assumptions regarding the
future course of fertility, mortality and migration (O‟Neill et al. 2001). It is important to determine the
base year and duration of the projections, analyse the past trends of fertility, mortality and
migration based on previous censuses and surveys and develop possible scenarios based on the
assumptions regarding future changes in demographic events (births, deaths and migration).

Population projections can shed light on the interactions of various demographic variables and
their impact on the future evolution of some parameters such as the size, composition and
distribution of the population, and the related demographic events (births, deaths, marriage and
migration). The projected population by age and sex can directly feed into population planning in
terms of, for example, determining the number of nurses to be trained, the number of classrooms
to be built, the public facilities and infrastructure needed for new settlements in urban areas and so
on.

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2.3 Objectives of the population projections

2.3.1 Overall Objective

The overall objective of the population projections is to provide decision-makers, planners and
development partners with reliable information on the evolution of various aspects of the Rwandan
population between 2012 and 2032.

2.3.2 Specific Objectives

More specifically, the objectives of the report are to project and interpret the future trends of:
 The size of the total population and its age-sex structure and density;
 The size of the urban and rural populations and their age-sex structures and densities;
 Fertility and mortality indicators;
 The size of specific interventions target groups; and
 The number and mean size of the private households along with the annual number of
new households to be created.

2.4 Definition of concepts and key indicators

Age-dependency ratio: defined internationally as the ratio of persons in dependent ages (under
15 and over 60 years) to economically productive ages (15-59 years); in the Rwandan context
under 16 and over 64 years as dependent, and 16-64 years as economically productive.

Age-sex structure: is the distribution of the population by age and sex.

Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs): are obtained by dividing the number of births to women in a
particular age group, in a specific calendar year, to the mid-year population of women in the same
age group. The ASFR of a given age group in a given year measures the average number of
children a woman of that age group would have under the current fertility conditions of that year
and assuming that she will survive throughout the reproductive ages.

Average household size: is obtained by dividing the total population living in private household by
the total number of private households.

Childbearing age: is generally defined for women as the age interval 15-49 years during which
they give birth. It is also referred to as reproductive ages.

Children: are officially defined in Rwanda as persons aged 0-17.

Crude birth rate (CBR): is defined as the total number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants in a
given year. It measures the frequency of births within a population.

Crude death rate (CDR): is defined as the total number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in a given
year.

Doubling time: is the time that a population takes to double its current size calculated based on a
given growth rate.

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Elderly: is defined by the United Nations as people aged 60 years and above (United Nations,
2007). It is the same age used in the analysis of the 2002 Census and in the EICV3. However, in
Rwanda the normal retirement age is now 65 years old and the early retirement age is 60 years
instead of 55 years.

Fertility: refers to the current reproductive performance of a woman.

General Fertility Rate (GFR): measures the number of births in a given year divided by the
corresponding mid-year population of women in the childbearing years (15-49). It is a refined
measure when compared to CBR which includes total population at risk in the denominator.

Private Household: is defined as a household with a single person or a group of people living
together voluntarily, having common housekeeping arrangements for supplying basic living needs,
such as principal meals; the group may consist of related or unrelated persons.

Infant mortality rate (IMR): is the probability of dying before the first year of life in a specific year,
usually expressed in terms of deaths per 1000 live births.

Life expectancy at birth (LEB): is a hypothetical measure that estimates the average number of
years that a new born could expect to live if he/she had to live all his/her life under the current
mortality conditions. Life expectancy can also be calculated any given age as the number of years
a person of that age would expect to live again under the current mortality conditions.

Mean age at childbearing: is defined as the average age of mothers at the birth of their children if
women were subject throughout their childbearing years to the age-specific fertility rates observed
in a given year.

Migration: is defined as the movement of people across a specified boundary for the purpose of
establishing a new residence.

Mortality: is defined as the number of deaths that occur in a population.

Net migration rate: is defined as the net effect of immigration and emigration on a given
population, expressed as either increase or decrease per 1,000 inhabitants in a given year. It is
calculated by dividing the difference between the number of in-migrants and the number of out-
migrants by the resident mid-year population multiplied by 1,000.

Population census: is a system that collects data on the members of a population usually every 5
or 10 years. In Rwanda, the census is conducted every 10 years.

Population density: is defined as the number of persons per square kilometre.

Population dynamics: is a concept that addresses the changes or evolution of a population over
time.
Population projections: are scenarios of what future populations might look like under given
assumptions.

6
Population growth rate: is the rate at which a population grows during a given year, as the result
of natural increase plus net migration; expressed as percentage of the base population.

School-age population: depends on the education system in a country. In Rwanda, the school-
age population is defined as the population aged 3-18 years, classified by pre-school (3-6 years),
primary (7-12 years), secondary (13-18 years) and college/university (19-24 years).

Sex ratio: is defined as the number of males per 100 females in a population. It is calculated by
simply dividing the total number of males in the population by the total number of women multiplied
by 100.

Total fertility rate (TFR): is the average number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would
have at the end of their reproductive if they were subject to at each age/age group experiencing
the corresponding ASFRs of a given period. It is calculated by summing the ASFRs and multiplying
the sum by the width of the age interval.

Working-age population: is generally defined as population aged 15-64, but in Rwandan context
the definition is the age interval 16-64 years.

Youth: in Rwanda is officially defined as people aged 14-35 years.

7
Chapter 3: Analysis of the national demographic context
3.1 Source of data
Since the last census in 2002, Rwanda has conducted several data collection operations
nationwide that provide representative information on the levels and trends of key indicators on the
population including size, age-sex structure and the driven factors of its dynamics. These sources
of data are the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted respectively in 2005,
2007/2008 and 2010, the recent population and housing census conducted in 2012 and the series
of the Integrated Households Living Conditions Surveys (EICV) conducted respectively in
2005/2006 and 2010/2011.

The DHSs highlight the demographic changes Rwanda has experienced in recent years especially
with regard to fertility and childhood mortality, while the data from the last census provides
information on the size, structure and spatial distribution of the total, urban and rural population.
The population projections presented in this report will use these data to estimate the size,
composition and dynamics of the population in the next twenty years.

3.2 Size and age-sex structure of the population

The final results of the 4th Population and Housing Census of Rwanda give a total resident
population of 10,515,973 people as of August 15th 2012, “census night”. The population sex ratio is
92 males per 100 females, suggesting a higher representation of females (5,451,105) than males
(5,064,868). The resident population recorded in the 2012 census added 2,387,420 more people
when compared to the 2002 Census, yielding an intercensal average annual growth rate of 2.6%.
This rate is similar to the average annual growth of the intercensal period 1978-1991 by greater
than the 1991-2002 one. In fact, Rwanda has recorded an unprecedented low intercensal annual
growth rate of 1.2% between 1991 and 2002 due to the 1994 genocide. The reversal of annual
growth rate to 2.6% between 2002 and 2012 and relatively less distortions in the age structure
shows evidence of Rwanda making a gradual recovery in terms of population lost due to the
genocide. However the deficit of men in the 2002 census (91 males per 100 females) showed little
improvement over time, although this imbalance has been declining especially at young ages
(Figure 1).

The analysis of the age-sex structure of the population in 2012 highlights the following key
findings:

 An expanded base of the age pyramid, characteristic of population with recent high fertility;
 A tapered top of the pyramid which is the result of especially high adult male mortality in the
past;
 A predominantly young population: people under-20 years represent 52% of the total
population.

8
Figure 1: Age pyramid of the resident population of Rwanda, 2012

Age pyramid (Count) of Rwanda in 2012

80+
Female
75-79
70-74 Male
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

800,000.0 600,000.0 400,000.0 200,000.0 0.0 200,000.0 400,000.0 600,000.0 800,000.0

Source: Rwandan 4th PHC, 2012 (NISR)

3.3 Population dynamics indicators

The three components that drive the dynamics of a population are: fertility, mortality and migration.
The following section analyses these components.

3.3.1 Levels and trends of fertility

In Rwanda, fertility continues to exert considerable impact on natural increase in the population.
Fertility can be measured using several indicators such as the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total
Fertility Rate (TFR) and Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR). According to the Fourth Rwanda
Population and Housing Census (RPHC4), the TFR was 4.0 children per woman in 2012, twice
lower than the 8.6 recorded in 1978 by the first PHC (Table 1).

9
Table 1: Trends in fertility from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys
PHC PHC DHS DHS PHC DHS IDHS DHS PHC
Indicators
1978 1991 1992 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012
ASFR
15-19 49 59 60 52 40 42 40 41 27
20-14 302 242 227 240 224 235 211 189 150
25-29 405 327 294 272 300 305 272 226 202
30-34 377 310 270 257 273 273 246 200 185
35-39 309 258 214 190 215 211 209 148 142
40-44 198 146 135 123 112 117 105 88 79
45-49 91 39 46 33 25 32 20 20 19
TFR 8.6 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.5 4.6 4.0
GFR 237 207 - 180 162 178 151 122
CBR 54.1 45.7 - - 41.2 39.2 34.4 30.9
ASFR = Age-Specific Fertility Rate; TFR = Total Fertility Rate; GFR = General Fertility Rate; CBR = Crude Birth Rate
Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002 and 2012 PHCs and Rwanda 1992, 2000, 2005, 2007 and 2010 DHSs

The significant decline of fertility can be partly explained by the increase in modern contraceptive
use as shown by the increase in Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) from 10% in 2005 to 45%
in 2010, combined with the increase in net attendance rate in secondary school for girls that
increased from 10% in 2005 to 21% in 2012 (EICV 2010-11). More generally, the fertility decline
seems to result from the government policy of raising public awareness down to the village level
for the adoption of responsible parenthood behaviours and ensuring availability of community
health services at the lowest geographical level.

According to censuses and surveys conducted in Rwanda, the total fertility rate (TFR) has
increased by 20% from 5.9 children per woman in 2002 to 6.1 in 2005, before decreasing by 34%
to 4.0 children per woman in 2012 (Table 3).

3.3.2 Levels and trends of mortality

Mortality is a key component of population change and has influence across all ages usually
determined by a U-shape suggesting high concentration of deaths in the very young and old ages.
It is measured by, among others indicators, the Crude Death Rate (CDR), life expectancy at birth
(LEB), Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), child mortality rate and Under-five Mortality Rate (U-5MR). Life
expectancy at birth is the best summary indicator to measure the level of mortality and health
status in a population.

In Rwanda, life expectancy at birth (e0) was 46.4 years in 1978, increased to 53.7 years in 1991
before decreasing to 51.2 years in 2002 (Table 2). Between 2002 and 2012, it has increased again
by about 26%, from 51.2 years to 64.5. This is further reflected in the substantial reduction of IMR
from 144 per 1000 live births in 1978 to about 49 in 2012. The under-five mortality has followed the
same pattern. The changes in IMR between 1992 and 2002 were trivial, which is explained by the
influence of the 1994 genocide. Most of the decline in mortality actually took place during the last
decade.

10
Table 2: Trends in mortality indicators from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys
PHC PHC DHS DHS PHC DHS IDHS DHS PHC
Indicators
1978 1991 1992 2000 2002 2005 2007/8 2010 2012
IMR (‰) 144 120 85 107 139 86 62 50 48.6
U-5MR (‰) 224 195 151 196 221 152 103 76 72.2
e0 (years) 46.4 53.7 - - 51.2 - - - 64.5
IMR=Infant Mortality Rate; U-5MR=Under Five Mortality Rate; LE=Life Expectancy at Birth.
Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002 and 2012 PHCs and Rwanda 1992, 2000, 2005, 2007 and 2010 DHSs

The increase in life expectancy at birth is due to the improvement of the health status of the
population, especially during the last decade following several vigorous social and healthcare
interventions aimed at reducing the leading causes of death through increase of the health
personnel and infrastructure, improvement of the public hygiene systems, and universal access of
the population to health insurance.

3.3.3 Levels and trends of migration

The pattern of migration in Rwanda varies according to the type of migration: internal vs.
international.

Regarding internal migration, the majority of the population of Rwanda remain in their place of
origin, since only 20% of the resident population were reported to reside in a district other than
their district of birth (lifetime migrants), and 20% were reported having resided in a district different
from their current district of residence in the last five years preceding the census date (recent
migrants). The percentage is even lower if one considers the change of residence at the province
rather than the district level.

The analysis of the origin and destination of migrants (migration flows) shows evidence that most
migrants who changed their residence between provinces tend to move to neighbouring provinces.
Conversely provinces receive migrants from neighbouring provinces or countries. Kigali City and
Eastern Province received more migrants than other provinces of the country, regardless of the
type of migration considered.

As for international migration, the stock is negligible as compared to the size of the whole
population. Although there have been significant cross-border migration in Rwanda in the 1990s
triggered by the 1994 genocide, this unusual phenomenon is unlikely to reoccur in the future.
According to the 2012 PHC data, the foreigners represented only 0.9% of the resident population
of Rwanda. This clearly suggests that international migration has negligible impact on population
change in Rwanda and therefore the assumption of negligible or zero net international migration
could be retained for the projections in the Rwandan context.

11
Chapter 4: Projections parameters, assumptions and scenarios
The development of population projections are based on the parameters specifications and
assumptions. Given that population growth has implications in all sectors of the national life,
population projections should integrate a systematic analysis of past trends of demographic
components and derive realistic assumptions of future trajectories.

Rwanda, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6%, resembles other sub-Saharan African
countries where rapid population growth constitutes a serious threat on the national development.
Indeed, at this rate of growth, the population of Rwanda will double in 29 years reaching more than
21 million by 2041. Given the relatively small surface area of Rwanda (just above 26 thousands
square kilometres) this rapid population growth will exert tremendous demographic pressure on
available resources in the future.

The population projections are produced over a period of 20 years, from 2012 to 2032 in single
and abridged years. The base year of the projection is 2012, year of RPHC4. The base population
is the mid-year 2012 (1st July 2012) calculated from the RPHC4 data disaggregated by sex, age
and area of residence.

4.1 Projections parameters

The projections parameters considered here are the distribution of the resident population by sex
and age by area of residence, fertility indicators and mortality indicators.

4.1.1 Total, urban and rural population

The base population is the 2012 mid-year population that is as of July 1st, 2012. It is obtained by
retro-projecting the resident population enumerated by the RPHC4 that refers to August 15th, 2012
using the 2002-2012 intercensal average annual growth rate. Table 3 presents the distribution of
the base population by sex and 5-year age groups by area of residence. It has to be noted that the
national population sex ratio of 92 males per 100 females is a reflection of the deficit of men in
rural areas (91 males per 100 females) whereas that in urban areas is (105 males per 100
females). Further analysis show that men in the adult ages are more represented in urban areas
suggesting labour migration flows of men from rural to urban areas. On the other hand, there is a
balance in sex ratio in the population aged 0-4 years.

12
 st
Table 3: Age-sex structure of the total, urban and rural population at mid-year 2012 (July 1 , 2012)
5 year Total Urban Rural
age Both Both Both
group Male Female Male Female Male Female
sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,532,834 764,679 768,155 226,305 113,423 112,882 1,306,529 651,256 655,273
5-9 1,518,793 755,420 763,373 201,260 100,774 100,486 1,317,533 654,646 662,887
10-14 1,261,796 621,851 639,945 176,960 86,609 90,351 1,084,836 535,242 549,594
15-19 1,109,912 545,385 564,527 190,639 88,811 101,828 919,273 456,574 462,699
20-24 1,024,952 497,834 527,118 225,623 115,700 109,923 799,329 382,134 417,195
25-29 925,387 455,252 470,135 210,408 115,361 95,047 714,979 339,891 375,088
30-34 759,138 367,034 392,104 159,625 88,707 70,918 599,513 278,327 321,186
35-39 507,792 231,926 275,866 98,957 53,315 45,642 408,835 178,611 230,224
40-44 414,302 190,303 223,999 71,472 39,498 31,974 342,830 150,805 192,025
45-49 339,688 154,986 184,702 50,235 27,703 22,532 289,453 127,283 162,170
50-54 337,183 151,288 185,895 41,264 22,246 19,018 295,919 129,042 166,877
55-59 240,708 106,571 134,137 26,765 13,989 12,776 213,943 92,582 121,361
60-64 175,788 76,266 99,522 18,604 9,336 9,268 157,184 66,930 90,254
65-69 102,308 40,066 62,242 10,792 4,662 6,130 91,516 35,404 56,112
70-74 91,954 35,235 56,719 9,093 3,704 5,389 82,861 31,531 51,330
75-79 60,037 23,419 36,618 6,125 2,418 3,707 53,912 21,001 32,911
80 + 80,069 31,649 48,420 8,048 2,862 5,186 72,021 28,787 43,234
Total 10,482,641 5,049,164 5,433,477 1,732,175 889,118 843,057 8,750,466 4,160,046 4,590,420
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

4.1.2 Fertility
Fertility indicators considered for the population projections are the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and
the Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs).

a) Trends in Total Fertility Rate

The base value of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is set at 4.0 children per woman derived from the
RPHC4 (See the RPHC4 thematic report on “Fertility” by Uwayezu Beatrice). Taking into account
the average rate of decline in TFR between 2002 and 2012 and the threshold effect, the expected
TFR at the end of the projection period (2032) would be 3 children per woman at the national level.

b) Age-Specific Fertility Rates

As for the age-specific fertility rates, the projections will use the rates provided by the RPHC4.
However, these are normalized so that the sum of the ASFRs will be 100%. In other terms what is
used as input for the projections are the respective contributions of the 5-year age groups to the
total fertility as measured by the TFR, as shown in Table 4.

13
Table 4: Age-Specific Fertility Rates (%) and contribution to the general fertility
5-year age-group (Years) Age-Specific Fertility Rates Contribution (%) to the general fertility
15-19 27 3.4
20-24 150 18.7
25-29 202 25.1
30-34 185 23.0
35-39 142 17.7
40-44 79 9.8
45-49 19 2.4
Total 100.0
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

4.1.3 Mortality
The projections parameters for mortality are the life expectancy at birth and its evolution over time.

a) Life expectancy at birth

The evolution of mortality data shows that the average annual increase in life expectancy at birth
during the period 1978-1991 were respectively 0.45 years for men, 0.68 years for females and
0.56 years for both sexes, while for the period 1991-2002 the average annual decrease in life
expectancy at birth was about 0.23 years for the entire population. Between 2002 and 2012 the
average annual increase rate in life expectancy at birth is1.33 years as shown in Table 5

Table 5: Trends in life expectancy at birth and average annual growth rates between 1978 and 2012
Indicator Sex Gap between
Both sexes Male Females Male and Female
Life expectancy at birth e0 (years)
1978 46.4 45.1 47.7 2.6
1991 53.7 51.0 56.5 5.5
2002 51.2 48.4 53.8 5.4
2012* 64.5 62.6 66.2 3.6
Average annual increase rate per period
1978–1991 +0.56 +0.45 +0.68
1991–2002 -0.23 -0.24 -0.25
2002–2012 +1.33 +1.42 +1.24
Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002 and 2012 PHCs
* See the RPHC4 thematic report on “Mortality” by Gasafari Willy

b) Operational Model for the decline of mortality

The estimation of the life expectancy at birth expected in 2032 is based on the United Nations
Population Division model schedule of changes in life expectancy (United Nations, 1982). This
schedule assumes that life expectancy at birth, for both males and females, increases by 2.0 to 2.5
years over each five-year period when life expectancy is less than 60 and then increases at a
slower rate at higher levels. Table 6 shows the working model used in the United Nations
population projections.

These assumptions are based on the principle that there are no external shocks such as war,
national or global epidemic or other disasters and major economic crisis.

14
Table 6: United Nations model of life expectancy improvement during a five-year period
Rapid Rise Moderate Rise Slow Rise
Initial life expectancy
Male Female Male Female Male Female
55.0-57.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
57.5-60.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0
60.0-62.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.0
62.5-65.0 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
65.0-67.5 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.0
67.5-70.0 1.5 2.3 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.5
70.0-72.5 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.2
72.5-75.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.0
75.0-77.5 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.8
77.5-80.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.5
80.0-82.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3
82.5-85.0 - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.3
85.0-87.5 - 0.5 - 0.4 - 0.3
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

The application of this model to the RPHC4 data gives an expected life expectancy at birth in 2032
of 69.3 years for men and 73.4 years for women.

4.2 Projections assumptions

The assumptions for each component of population change are explained in the sub-sections
below.

4.2.1 Fertility

This sub-section will first examine the current situation of Rwanda in terms of policies and
programs aimed at controlling fertility and then it will outline the assumptions on the future trends
of fertility.

a) Policies and programs on fertility in Rwanda

Based on empirical data, fertility change in Rwanda can be classified into three periods reflecting
on three phases of implementation of the national policies and programmes put in place to mitigate
the rapid growth of the population. These include a period of steady decline in fertility (1978-1992),
a period of increase in fertility (the 1994 genocide aftermath) and a period of rapid decline in
fertility (2005 to present).

The period between 1978 and 1992 was marked by a steady decline of the fertility rate following a
proactive governmental policy to reduce fertility by implementing a vigorous family planning
programme using all available means. The 1994 genocide had a catastrophic impact on health
systems and households were affected severely by the loss of family members. Fertility declined
slightly during this period but then recuperated between 2000 and 2005. However, the post-2005
rapid decline in fertility was attributed to increase in access to community-based health services,
successful public campaigns promoting responsible parenthood and more importantly a steady
increase in the level of education of females.

15
b) Assumptions about future trends in fertility

The following assumptions were made based on an assessment of past and current trends in
fertility:

1. High assumption: TFR would decrease from 4.0 children per woman to 3.5 children per
woman between 2012 and 2032, assuming that the revised target of Vision 2020 would be
reached by the end of the projection period:
 TFR = from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.5 children per woman in 2032.

2. Medium assumption: TFR would decrease constantly from 4 children per woman in 2012 to
its current level in the capital city, Kigali which is about 3.0 children per woman in 2032 also
based on the recent changes in fertility observed between 2005 and 2010 (RDHS-2005;
RDHS-2010):
 TFR = from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.0 children in 2032.

3. Low assumption: TFR would decrease from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.0 children
per woman in 2020 based on the revised target of Vision 2020. It is assumed that fertility
will continue to decline to reach its current level among women with secondary and
university level of educational attainment, which is about 2.5 children per woman by the
end of the projections period, 2032:
 TFR = from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 2.5 children in 2032.

4.2.2 Mortality

a) Policies and programs related to mortality in Rwanda

As mentioned above, the current socio-health context of Rwanda is characterized by the increase
in the availability of health facilities down to the lowest administrative level, universal access to
health care through mandatory medical insurance for all, and significant improvement in family and
environmental hygiene. These factors contributed to the decline in mortality as clearly illustrated by
the increase in life expectancy at birth between 2002 (51.2 years for both sexes) and 2012 (64.5
years). It is assumed that these factors will continue to play a significant role in improving the
health and living conditions of people, along with Vision 2020 agenda aimed at transforming
Rwanda into a Middle Income Country (MIC) by 2020.

b) Assumptions regarding future mortality trends

Based on the assessment of past mortality trends and recent dramatic improvements in human
survival attributed to social and economic development, it is assumed that life expectancy at birth
in Rwanda will increase linearly up to 70 years by the end of the projection period (2032). Three
assumptions have been put forwarded:

 High assumption: life expectancy at birth (LEB) would increase from 64.5 years in 2012 to
70.7 years in 2032, according to the low rise of the UN model of mortality decline (United
Nations, 2003):
 LEB (Male): 62.6 years in 2012 to 69.1 years in 2032
 LEB (Female): 66.2 years in 2012 to 72.3 years in 2032

16
  Medium assumption: life expectancy at birth (LEB) would increase steadily from 64.5 years
in 2012 to 71.4 years in 2032, according to the moderate rise of the UN model of mortality
decline (United Nations, 2003):
 LEB (Male): 62.6 years in 2012 to 69.3 years in 2032
 LEB (Female): 66.2 years in 2012 to 73.4 years in 2032
 Low assumption: life expectancy at birth (LEB) would increase rapidly from 64.5 years 2012
to 72.6 years in 2032, according to the fast rise of the UN model of mortality decline (United
Nations, 2003):
 LEB (Male): from 62.6 years in 2012 to 70.6 years in 2032
 LEB (Female): from 66.2 years in 2012 to 74.5 years in 2032

4.2.3 International Migration

As argued in sub-section 3.3.3, the contribution of international migration to Rwandan population
growth would be negligible. Therefore we will assume that the net international migration would be
zero for projecting the population at the national level throughout the projections period.
 Assumption: Net international migration is zero

4.3 Scenarios of projections

Based on the assumptions regarding fertility and mortality, three possible scenarios have been
derived to project the Rwandan population from 2012 to 2032. These scenarios are:

 High scenario – where the TFR would decrease from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.5
at the end of the period of projections, while the life expectancy at birth would increase from
62.6 years in 2012 for men and 66.2 years for women to 69.1 years for men and 72.3 years
for women in 2032.

 Medium scenario – where the TFR would decrease from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to
3.0 at the end of the period of projections, while the life expectancy at birth would increase
from 62.6 years in 2012 for men and 66.2 years for women to 69.3 years for men and 73.4
years for women in 2032.

 Low scenario – where TFR would decrease from 4.0 children per woman in 2012 to 3.5 in
2020, and to 2.5 by the end of the projection period, while the life expectancy at birth would
increase from 62.6 years in 2012 for men and 66.2 for women to 70.6 years for men and
74.5 years for women in 2032.

4.4 Method of projections

The data from the above-presented scenarios will be used as inputs in the SPECTRUM software in
its Demproj and Rapid modules to produce the size and other indicators of the evolution of
population of Rwanda for the next 20 years (Stover and Kirmeyer 2005).

Different methods are used to make population projections depending on the type of projections:
“global projections” or “sectoral projections”. “Global projections” refer to the projections of the
whole population while “Sectoral projections” refer to the projections of sub-group populations.

17
For “global projections”, the method used is the so-called cohort component method which is
based on the components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration. The logic of this
method is explained by a simple equation (1):

Where:

- Pop(t2) is the size of the population at the most recent date;

- Pop(t1) is the size of the population at the previous date;

- B(t1,t2) is the number of births between t1 and t2;

- D(t1, t2) is the number of deaths between t1 and t2;

- Immig(t1,t2) is the number of immigrants between t1 and t2; and

- Emig(t1, t2) is the number of emigrants between t1 and t2.

In the present case we have supposed that the net international migration is zero. Then the
equation (1) can be modified as:

This equation will be used to project the future size of the population of Rwanda in single years
from 2012 to 2032, which is obtained by adding the annual number of births in 2012 to the base
year population (2012) and subtracting the annual deaths at each age in the base year. The
annual number of births is obtained by multiplying the ASFRs of 2012 to the female population at
risk who are aged between 15 and 49 years. The number of births is further disaggregated by male
and female births, by applying the sex ratio at birth assumption of 105 males per 100 females. The
surviving births are then calculated by applying the probability of surviving at ages between 0 and
1. The number of annual number of deaths is obtained by applying survival ratios calculated from
the 2012 Age-Specific Death Rates (ASDR) to the population of the different age groups. The
deaths are disaggregated by sex. As for the ASDR, life expectancy for each sex is obtained by
applying a linear interpolation using the observed life expectancy in 2012 and the assumed
projected life expectancies by 2032.

The projections of the urban population are obtained by applying for each year the corresponding
urbanization rate to the total population of the year. The urbanization rates for the projections years
are obtained by linear interpolation using the observed urbanization rate in 2012 and the assumed
urbanization rate of 30% by 2032.

18
The size of specific interventions target groups at each projections year is obtained by extracting
the corresponding population from the total population of the year using the age-criteria that
defined the group.

The projections of the private households are obtained through two steps. The first one consists of
calculating the number of private households for the whole country and for the urban area by
dividing the projected total and urban population with respectively the mean size of the households
of the country and in urban area. The second step consists of calculating the number of private
households in the rural area by subtracting the number of urban households from the total number
of households. The newly annual created households for a given year is just the difference
between the number of households of the preceding year and the number of households of that
year.

19
Chapter 5: Projections of the total population
The size of the total population is an important factor in the calculation of many demographic and
socio-economic indicators, as they provide information on the population at risk used in the
denominator of calculating most of the indicators.

Knowledge of the future size of the total population and its composition by age and sex allows
decision-makers and planners to apprehend the future of the population, taking into account its
size, composition and dynamics to better assess its needs and design the programs to meet them.

This chapter presents the results of the projections of the total population over the period 2012-
2032 according to the three projection scenarios presented in the preceding section.

5.1 Population size

Whatever the scenario considered, the size of the population of Rwanda will continue to increase
from 10.5 million in 2012 to 16.9 million in 2032 according the high scenario, 16.3 million according
to the medium scenario and 15.4 million according to the low scenario (Table 7). In other words,
the population size would increase approximately by half of its current size during the next 20
years.

At the end of the period covered by the Vision 2020 (year 2020), the population size would be
about 12.7 million according to the high and medium scenarios and 12.4 million according to the
low scenario. The degree of uncertainty is usually low for short-term projections. By 2015, that is
the ending year of the Millennium Development Goals, the population would be approximately 11.2
million according to the three projection scenarios.

The population size will not vary tremendously across the scenarios though the high scenario will
gives a population size 1.5 million individuals more than the low scenario.

Table 7: Evolution of the population size, 2012-2032 by projections scenarios

Population size (Inhabitants)
Projection Year
High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
2012 10,482,641 10,482,641 10,482,641
2014 11,002,628 10,996,891 10,978,629
2015 11,274,221 11,262,564 11,225,545
2017 11,839,419 11,809,300 11,713,993
2020 12,738,768 12,663,116 12,422,803
2022 13,371,544 13,252,272 12,897,779
2027 15,064,603 14,779,042 14,137,062
2032 16,875,142 16,332,184 15,402,934
% Increase (2012-
61.0 55.8 46.9
2032)
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

The curve of the future population size by year, as illustrated in Figure 2, confirms that the
difference between the three scenarios is not substantial. The population size from the low
scenario starts being different from the two other scenarios around year 2017. The projected
population size from the high and medium scenarios will remain close up to 2022.

20
This means that the evolution of the total population for the next 5 years is unlikely to be influenced
by any existing or new policies and programmes. The difference in terms of the impact will be
visible after 2017.

Figure 2: Evolution of the projected total population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios

5.2 Population growth

The evolution of the population size between 2012 and 2032 described above corresponds to the
annual growth rates plotted in Figure 3. They reveal that although the size of the population will
increase continuously, the pace of this increase will continuously decrease over time. For instance,
the annual growth rate will decrease from 2.37% in 2013 to 2.18% in 2032 according to the high
scenario, 2.37% to 1.89% according to the medium scenario and 2.31% to 1.63% according to the
low scenario.

Figure 3: Evolution of the average annual growth rate, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios

The evolution described above corresponds to different doubling time of the population size as

21
shown in Figure 4. Regardless of the scenarios, the doubling time will tend to increase reflecting
the slowing down of the population growth. Assuming an exponential growth, the population of
Rwanda would double every 29 years if it had to grow at the same pace as the average one
recorded in the intercensal period 2002-2012. By 2032, this doubling time would increase up to 32
years (high scenario), 37 (medium scenario) and 43 (low scenario).

Figure 4: Evolution of the doubling time of the population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios

In sum the findings show that irrespective of the scenarios, the population of Rwanda will continue
to increase. It will reach 16.3 million by the end of the projection period (2032) according to the
most likely scenario (the medium scenario). This will be 1 million inhabitants more than the figure
from the most optimistic scenario (the low scenario) and a half million less than the high scenario.
Though small in proportionate terms, the population sizes difference between the mean and the
low scenarios will have a real impact on the limited resources of the country. In contrast the
difference in terms of population growth and doubling time between the scenarios will be very
important. For instance the doubling time according to the high scenario will be 11 years shorter
than the one from the low scenario (32 vs. 43 years). This means that the type of programs and
policies that will be implemented from now on will have a limited impact on the population of
Rwanda in the near future but a significant one on the medium and long run, even beyond the
projections period.

5.3 Population density

The density of the population of Rwanda will continue to grow regardless of the measures currently
taken to mitigate its evolution. The current density of 414 inhabitants per square km is already one
of the highest in Africa. Yet, in the next twenty years, there will be an additional 200 or even more
inhabitants per square km depending on the projections scenarios. Table 8 reveals that by 2032,
the population density will be 667 inhabitants per square km (high scenario), 645 (medium
scenario) and 608 (low scenario).

22
Table 8: Evolution of the population density, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios
Projections High scenario Medium scenario Low scenario
year Population Density Population Density Population Density
(Inhabitants/ (Inhabitants/ (Inhabitants/
Sq.km) Sq.km) Sq.km)
2012 10,482,641 414 10,482,641 414 10,482,641 414
2014 11,002,628 435 10,996,891 434 10,978,629 434
2015 11,274,221 445 11,262,564 445 11,225,545 443
2017 11,839,419 468 11,809,300 467 11,713,993 463
2020 12,738,768 503 12,663,116 500 12,422,803 491
2022 13,371,544 528 13,252,272 524 12,897,779 510
2027 15,064,603 595 14,779,042 584 14,137,062 558
2032 16,875,142 667 16,332,184 645 15,402,934 608
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

The relatively high fertility and the improvements in human survival would imply that Rwanda will
add more people and the pressure on land is likely to exacerbate within the next two decades,
irrespective of the policies and programs implemented. Therefore the country needs to put in place
explicit policies to deal with unavoidable and foreseeable population overcrowding aside from the
current policies aimed at reducing the population growth.

5.4 Age-sex structure of the population

Figure 5 below gives the age-sex distribution (count) of the population by 2032 shows the age
pyramid of Rwanda by 2032 as compared to the 2012 one according to the three projections
scenarios. It reveals that:

- In 2032, the age pyramid of Rwanda will be quite different from the current one irrespective
of the scenarios. The major change will be the decrease in the share of the children (0-14) in
the total population and the increase in the share of the population aged 15-59. This means
that the population will be less young in the future.

- The 2032 age-pyramid varies according to the projection scenario. The age pyramid from
the high scenario in 2032 will be similar to the one of the countries with high fertility but with
a greater share of the population aged 15-59. According to the medium scenario, the
children aged 0-4 and 5-9 will continue to have the highest population share but with smaller
difference as compared to the older age groups. The low scenario gives a pyramid that no
longer has the shape of the countries with recent high levels of fertility and past adult
mortality; the children aged 0-4 would no longer have the highest share among all age
groups, consequence of the substantial fertility decline. The expected decline in fertility and
mortality would create a bulge in the working-age population, and the top of the pyramid will
gradually expand over time with a higher representation of elderly in the population.

23
Figure 5: Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the Rwandan total population by projection scenarios
Age-group pyramid (%) of the total population in 2012 Age-group pyramid (%) of total population by 2032 (Medium scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Age-group pyramid (%) of total population by 2032 (High scenario) Age-group pyramid (%) of total population by 2032 (Low scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

24
Table 9: Age-sex distribution (count) of the population of Rwanda in 2032 by projection
scenarios
5 year age High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
groups Male Female Male Female Male Female
0-4 1,097,819 1,071,090 960,118 939,221 803,343 784,304
5-9 1,009,172 986,876 921,017 903,888 770,913 754,676
10-14 911,498 894,438 863,557 850,825 733,187 721,028
15-19 812,506 800,763 796,821 787,577 750,945 741,389
20-24 731,143 742,196 731,221 743,502 732,890 744,581
25-29 726,084 742,412 726,173 743,684 727,959 744,816
30-34 593,094 619,408 593,171 620,608 594,812 621,690
35-39 515,011 542,761 515,083 543,946 516,640 545,011
40-44 466,637 502,940 466,711 504,212 468,275 505,351
45-49 422,629 444,033 422,705 445,348 424,314 446,531
50-54 334,290 364,542 334,360 365,817 335,838 366,973
55-59 204,545 250,205 204,599 251,277 205,689 252,271
60-64 159,286 195,498 159,341 196,611 160,434 197,663
65-69 118,696 150,499 118,751 151,739 119,842 152,931
70-74 100,469 134,261 100,537 135,945 101,831 137,582
75-79 56,061 78,772 56,114 80,278 57,153 81,763
80 + 36,459 59,051 36,504 60,926 37,503 62,804
Total 8,295,400 8,579,742 8,006,781 8,325,403 7,541,570 7,861,364
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

To better describe the evolution of the age-sex structure of the population over the projection
period, we will analyse the evolution of selected indicators that capture the dynamics of the
age-sex structure: the percentage of women in the total population; the sex ratio; the
percentage of the population in the age groups 0-4, 5-15, 16-64 and 65+; and the age
dependency ratio. The findings are presented in Table 10 for the high scenario, Table 11 for
the medium scenario and Table 12 for the low scenario. The findings in the tables confirm
that:

- The sex structure of the population will remain mostly unaltered across time. The
share of females in the population would be roughly about 52% throughout the
projection horizon according to all three scenarios.

- In contrast of the sex structure, the age structure of the population will vary overtime
and across the scenarios. The population will be less young in the future and this
trend will be more marked for the high scenario followed by the medium and the low.
For instance, the median age will increase from 19 years in 2012 to 23, 24 and 26
years respectively by 2032, according to the high, medium and low scenarios. The
percentage of children under five will decrease from 14.6% in 2012 to 12.9% in 2032
(high scenario), 11.6% (medium scenario) and 10.3% (low scenario). Seemingly, the
share of the population aged 16-64 will increase from 53.5% in 2012 to 58.3% in
2032 (high scenario), 60.2% (medium scenario) and 63.5% (low scenario).

25
 - Based on results presented in Table 10, Table 11 and Table 12, the percentage of
elderly aged 60 years and above will gradually increase from 5% in 2012 up to 7% in
the next 20 years depending on the projection scenarios. The elderly aged 65 years
and above will increase from 3% in 2012 to 4-5% in 2032.

This suggests that although ageing in Rwanda is not as rapid as elsewhere in the
developed societies, the absolute number of people aged 65 and above would grow in
the future. This situation will have implications for social support, health care and living
arrangements.

Table 10: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032,
high scenario
Indicators of Projection Year
the age-sex
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
structure
Total
10,482,641 11,002,628 11,274,221 11,839,419 12,738,767 13,371,543 15,064,603 16,875,142
population
Percent
51.8 51.7 51.6 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.0 50.8
Females
Sex ratio 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 97
Median age 19 20 20 20 21 21 22 23
Percent 0-4 14.6 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.9
Percent 5-15 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.5 25.7 24.8 24.5
Percent 16-64 53.5 54.2 54.5 55.1 56.3 57.1 57.7 58.3
Percent 60+ 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.8 6.1 6.5
Percent 65+ 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.4
Dependency
0.80 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.66
ratio
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

Table 11: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032,
medium scenario
Indicators of Projection Year
the age-sex
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
structure
Total
10,482,641 10,996,891 11,262,564 11,809,300 12,663,116 13,252,272 14,779,042 16,332,184
population
Percent
51.8 51.7 51.7 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.1 51.0
Females
Sex ratio 93 93 94 94 95 95 96 96
Median age 19 20 20 20 21 21 23 24
Percent 0-4 14.6 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.5 11.6
Percent 5-15 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 26.6 25.7 24.4 23.7
Percent 16-64 53.5 54.2 54.5 55.2 56.6 57.6 58.9 60.2
Percent 60+ 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.7
Percent 65+ 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.2 4.5
Dependency
0.80 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.69 0.67 0.64 0.61
ratio
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

26
Table 12 Evolution of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population 2012-2032,
low scenario
Indicators of Projection Year
the age-sex
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
structure
Total
10,482,641 10,978,629 11,225,545 11,713,993 12,422,803 12,897,779 14,137,062 15,402,934
population
Percent
51.8 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.4 51.4 51.2 51.0
Females
Sex ratio 93 93 94 94 94 95 95 96
Median age 19 20 20 20 21 22 24 26
Percent 0-4 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.0 12.0 11.4 10.9 10.3
Percent 5-15 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 26.8 25.7 23.0 21.3
Percent 16-64 53.5 54.3 54.7 55.7 57.7 59.2 61.6 63.5
Percent 60+ 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.5 7.2
Percent 65+ 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.5 4.9
Dependency
0.80 0.77 0.76 0.72 0.66 0.62 0.57 0.53
ratio
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

5.5 Fertility indicators

This sub-section will analyze the evolution of key fertility indicators between 2012 and 2032
according to the three projections scenarios. These indicators are needed for planning,
monitoring and evaluation purposes. For instance, the number of annual births in the future
is used to allocate healthcare and education resources in terms of forecasting the number of
nurses to be trained to ensure that there is sufficient skilled birth attendants. They are also
used for designing targeted family planning and reproductive programmes, and for planning
the expansion of healthcare, childcare and pre-school institutions. The Net Reproduction
Rate (NRR) is yet another useful indicator to understand population growth. The NRR should
be 1 or above to ensure replacement of the population. Therefore, its evolution can be used
to avoid crossing the redline indicating beginning the decline of the total population. For
instance, an NRR of 1.4 by 2032 would indicate that subject to fertility and mortality
conditions prevailing, the size of the population in 2032 would be 25% more than the current
size of the Rwandan population.

Table 13 contains the evolution of key fertility indicators for selected years and for the three
projections scenarios. It reveals that:

- In terms of number of annual births, Table 13 shows that the trend varies according
to the projections scenarios. The future number of annual births in Rwanda will be
determined by the reproductive behaviour and intentions of cohorts of individuals
who will enter the reproductive ages over the next two decades. The number of
annual births is likely to increase continuously based on the high and medium
scenarios while it will start decreasing from a certain point of time according to the
low scenario. The standardized birth rate (standardized number of annual births per
1,000 inhabitants) will decrease from 30.7 per 1000 in 2012 to 24.1 per 1000 in 2032.
To analyse this trend in details, a graphical illustration of the number of annual births
by single year is presented in Table 1.

27
Table 13: Evolution of key fertility indicators 2012-2032, by projection scenarios
Projections year
Fertility Indicators
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
High Scenario
Number of annual
321,506 342,591 349,714 363,690 384,468 398,535 433,118 459,006
births
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
30.9 31.1 31 30.7 30.2 29.8 28.8 27.2
per 1000
Standardized Birth
30.7 31.1 31.0 30.7 30.2 29.8 28.8 27.2
Rate (SBR) per 1000
General Fertility Rate
63.2 64.1 63.9 63.3 62.2 61.4 59.2 56.0
(GFR)
Medium Scenario
Number of annual
321,506 338,281 343,077 352,052 364,343 372,189 389,087 393,731
births
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
30.9 30.8 30.5 29.8 28.8 28.1 26.3 24.1
per 1000
Standardized Birth
30.7 30.8 30.5 29.8 28.8 28.1 26.3 24.1
Rate (SBR) per 1000
General Fertility Rate
63.2 63.3 62.7 61.4 59.3 57.8 54.2 49.6
(GFR)
Low Scenario
Number of annual
321,506 324,988 322,674 316,429 302,987 309,495 323,679 327,494
births
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
30.9 29.6 28.7 27 24.4 24 22.9 21.3
per 1000
Standardized Birth
30.7 29.6 28.7 27.0 24.4 24.0 22.9 21.3
Rate (SBR) per 1000
General Fertility Rate
63.2 60.2 57.9 53.4 46.4 44.6 41.3 38.4
(GFR)
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

Figure 6 clearly shows the difference in the trends of the number of annual births by the
projection scenarios. This number varies substantially according to the projection scenarios.

- According to the high scenario, the number of annual births will increase continuously
to reach some 460,000 births by 2032. The increase of the number of annual births is
attributed to the phenomenon of population momentum which implies that the
number of births will continue to increase a while because of the cohorts of their
mothers are already born.

- The medium scenario (the most likely one) shows two phases in the evolution of the
annual number of births: a first phase of increase that covers the period 2013 to
2028, followed by a second period where the number of annual births will stabilize
around 393,000 (2029-2032).

- The trend from the low scenario is less regular. If the TFR decreases down to 3
children per woman by 2020 as envisaged in the revised Vision 2020, the annual
number of births shows three phases: a first phase of quick decrease that covers the
period 2012 to 2020, followed by a period of slight increase between 2020 and 2008,
and finally a phase during which the number of annual births will stabilize around
327,000 between 2009 and 2032.

28
Figure 6 shows that the difference in terms of annual births between the projection scenarios
will widen over time: 459,006 births (high scenario), 393,731 (medium scenario) and 327,494
(low scenario). In other words, the choices made in terms of policies and programs will affect
substantially the number of annual births in the next 20 years gradually and more and more
intensively.
Figure 6: Evolution of the number of annual births, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios

Table 14 shows the evolution of other key fertility indicators at selected dates over the
projections period. As assumed, the TFR will decrease for all projection scenarios from 4.0
children per woman in 2012 to 3.5 (high scenario), 3.0 (medium scenario) and 2.5 (low
scenario) in 2032. These assumptions imply that the replacement of the population will be
ensured according to the high and medium scenarios with a NRR greater than 1 (1.6 and 1.4
daughters on average per woman respectively) but hardly according to the low scenario
(1.2).

Table 14 also shows that the timing of childbearing will not vary substantially across
projection scenarios; the mean age at childbearing will increase slightly from 29.2 years in
2012 to 30.3 years in 2032.

29
Table 14: Evolution of other key fertility indicators, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios
Other Key Fertility
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
Indicators
High Scenario
Percent females aged
48.6 49.1 49.4 50.1 51.2 51.9 52.1 51.2
15-49
Total Fertility Rate
4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.5
(TFR)
Gross Reproduction
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7
Rate (GRR)
Net Reproduction
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
Rate (NRR)
Mean Age of
29.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3
Childbearing (years)
Medium Scenario
Percent females aged
48.6 49.1 49.5 50.2 51.5 52.3 53.1 52.7
15-49
Total Fertility Rate
4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.0
(TFR)
Gross Reproduction
2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
Rate (GRR)
Net Reproduction
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
Rate (NRR)
Mean Age of
29.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3
Childbearing (years)
Low Scenario
Percent females aged
48.6 49.2 49.6 50.6 52.5 53.8 55.5 55.3
15-49
Total Fertility Rate
4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5
(TFR)
Gross Reproduction
2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
Rate (GRR)
Net Reproduction
1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2
Rate (NRR)
Mean Age of
29.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3
Childbearing (years)
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

5.6 Mortality indicators

Table 15 reveals a downward trend in mortality over the projections period, irrespective of
the projection scenarios. However the decrease in mortality will be more important under the
low scenario and less under the high scenario. The life expectancy at birth for both sexes is
likely to increase from 64.5 years in 2012 to 72.6 years (low scenario), 71.4 years (medium
scenario) and 70.7 years (high scenario) in 2032. Seemingly, the infant mortality is also
expected to decrease from 48.6 per 1000 live births in 2012 to levels as low as 29.4 per
1000 (high scenario), 27.7 per 1000 (medium scenario) and 24.5 per 1000 (low scenario), in
2032.

30
Table 15: Evolution of key mortality indicators, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
High Scenario
Life expectancy at
62.6 63.3 63.7 64.6 65.8 66.5 68.0 69.1
birth (Male)
Life expectancy at
66.2 66.9 67.3 68.1 69.1 69.7 71.1 72.3
birth (Female)
Life expectancy at
64.5 65.2 65.6 66.4 67.5 68.2 69.6 70.7
birth (Both sexes)
Infant Mortality
48.6 47.1 45.7 42.9 39.4 37.1 32.6 29.4
Rate, IMR (‰)
Under-five
Mortality Rate, 72.3 69.0 66.6 61.7 55.5 51.6 44.2 39.0
U5MR (‰)
Number of annual
79,465 78,618 78,121 77,463 78,066 78,768 82,553 90,535
deaths
Crude Death
7.7 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.5 5.4
Rate, CDR (‰)
Medium Scenario
Life expectancy at
62.6 63.3 63.7 64.6 65.8 66.5 68.0 69.3
birth (Male)
Life expectancy at
66.2 67.1 67.5 68.4 69.7 70.5 71.9 73.4
birth (Female)
Life expectancy at
64.5 65.3 65.7 66.6 67.8 68.6 70.0 71.4
birth (Both sexes)
Infant Mortality
48.6 46.9 45.4 42.4 38.4 36.0 31.6 27.7
Rate, IMR (‰)
Under-five
Mortality Rate, 72.3 68.7 66.0 60.8 53.8 49.8 42.6 36.3
U5MR (‰)
Number of annual
79,465 78,161 77,404 76,197 75,624 75,681 78,804 84,536
deaths
Crude Death
7.7 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.2
Rate, CDR (‰)
low Scenario
Life expectancy at
62.6 63.5 63.9 64.9 66.2 67.1 69.2 70.6
birth (Male)
Life expectancy at
66.2 67.1 67.6 68.7 70.1 70.9 72.9 74.5
birth (Female)
Life expectancy at
64.5 65.4 65.8 66.8 68.2 69.1 71.1 72.6
birth (Both sexes)
Infant Mortality
48.6 46.5 44.9 41.6 37.1 34.4 28.5 24.5
Rate, IMR (‰)
Under-five
Mortality Rate, 72.3 68.0 65.1 59.2 51.5 47.1 37.6 31.3
U5MR (‰)
Number of annual
79,465 77,119 75,758 73,300 70,821 70,254 70,853 75,948
deaths
Crude Death
7.7 7.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.0 4.9
Rate, CDR (‰)
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

31
Chapter 6: Projections of the urban population
This section will discuss the evolution of different aspects of the urban population between
2012 and 2032 according to the high, medium and low projections scenarios: population
size, population density and population age-sex structure. Before presenting the findings, the
strategies of urban planning based on the revised Vision 2020 target are examined.

6.1 Assessment of the current official target on urbanization

The target in terms of urbanization in the Revised Vision 2020 is an urban population of 35%
by 2020. Table 16 is a simulation of what would be the size of the urban population between
2012 and 2020 based on the Vision 2020 target.

According to Table 16, the size of the urban population in 2020 will be 2.5 times greater than
its current size. It will increase from 1.7 million in 2012 to 4.4 million by 2020, regardless of
the projection scenarios.

Such a rapid increase in a relatively short period of time means that huge investments in
terms of infrastructure would be required to accommodate 2.7 million more urban dwellers,
which would be hard to achieve in the next 8 years. Taking this into account, we make the
assumption that the urbanization rate will be 30% by 2032 rather than 35% by 2020 as set
by the revised 2020 Vision.

Table 16: Evolution of the size of the urban population, 2012-2020 by projection scenarios
and Vision 2020 urbanization rate target
High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
Projections Urbanization
year Total Urban Total Urban Total Urban rate (%)
population population population population population population

2012 10,482,641 1,732,175 10,482,641 1,732,175 10,482,641 1,732,175 16.5

2013 10,724,489 2,017,544 10,725,541 2,017,742 10,726,937 2,018,005 18.8

2014 10,969,957 2,317,403 10,973,254 2,318,100 10,977,519 2,319,001 21.1

2015 11,218,267 2,629,281 11,225,190 2,630,904 11,233,876 2,632,940 23.4

2016 11,468,792 2,953,214 11,480,788 2,956,303 11,495,533 2,960,100 25.8

2017 11,720,998 3,289,205 11,739,594 3,294,424 11,762,121 3,300,745 28.1

2018 11,974,372 3,637,215 12,001,136 3,645,345 12,033,251 3,655,100 30.4

2019 12,228,393 3,997,156 12,264,898 4,009,088 12,308,488 4,023,337 32.7

2020 12,482,323 4,368,813 12,530,458 4,385,660 12,587,498 4,405,624 35.0

% increase
between
19.1 152.2 19.5 153.2 20.1 154.3
2012 and
2020
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

32
6.2 Size of the urban population
Based on the review of the current policies and programs that will shape the future trends of
urbanization in Rwanda, it is realistic to assume that the percentage of the population living
in urban areas will increase from 16.5% in 2012 to 30% in 2032. Under this assumption, the
size of the urban and rural population is projected, as shown in Table 17.

The urban population will increase from 1.7 million in 2012 to 5.1 million (high scenario), 4.9
million (medium scenario) and 4.6 million (low scenario) by 2032. This corresponds to an
overall increase of 192%, 183% and 167% respectively in the next 20 years, equivalent to
more than 3 times the increase rate of the total population.

At the end of the period covered by Vision 2020, the urban population will be just above 2.7
million, corresponding to an increase of one million urban dwellers in 8 years, regardless of
the projection scenarios. This is still high and would require huge investments on
infrastructure and resources in urban areas.

Table 17: Evolution of the size of the urban population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios
Urbanization
Projections High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
rate (%)
year
Rwanda Urban Rwanda Urban Rwanda Urban
2012 10,482,641 1,732,175 10,482,641 1,732,175 10,482,641 1,732,175 16.5
2014 11,002,628 1,963,969 10,996,891 1,962,945 10,978,629 1,959,685 17.9
2015 11,274,221 2,088,549 11,262,564 2,086,390 11,225,545 2,079,532 18.5
2017 11,839,419 2,353,085 11,809,300 2,347,098 11,713,993 2,328,156 19.9
2020 12,738,767 2,789,790 12,663,116 2,773,222 12,422,803 2,720,594 21.9
2022 13,371,543 3,108,884 13,252,272 3,081,153 12,897,779 2,998,734 23.3
2027 15,064,603 4,010,951 14,779,042 3,934,920 14,137,062 3,763,993 26.6
2032 16,875,142 5,062,543 16,332,184 4,899,655 15,402,934 4,620,880 30.0

% increase
between
61.0 192.3 55.8 182.9 46.9 166.8
2012 and
2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

6.3 Age-sex structure of the urban population

Figure 7 shows a comparison of the age pyramids of the urban population in 2012 and 2032
under the three projection scenarios. It shows that at the end of projection period the age-
sex structure of the urban population will change, regardless of the projection scenarios:

- The population in the 25-54 age group will have the greatest share of the total urban
population by 2032, as in 2012. This age group forms the majority of the working-age
population. Males will continue to slightly out-number women in that age group.

- The share of the child population would decrease while the share of the elderly would
increase, under all three projection scenarios.

33
Figure 7 Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the Rwandan urban population by projection scenarios
Age-group pyramid (%) of the urban population in 2012 Age-group pyramid (%) of urban population by 2032 (Medium scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Age-group pyramid (%) of urban population by 2032 (High scenario) Age-group pyramid (%) of urban population by 2032 (Low scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

34
Table 18 presents further details of the changes in age-sex structure over the projection
period.

The findings in Table 18 confirm that the age-sex structure of the population will change in
some of its aspects and will remain unchanged in others.

In terms of changes, by 2032, the sex structures of the urban population will change slightly;
women will out-number male in urban area with their percentage in the population increasing
from 49% to 51%, under all three projection scenarios. The changes in the age structure will
be more profound than changes in the sex composition of the population. The urban
population will be less young over time; the median age will increase from 22 years in 2012
to 24 years in 2032 according to the high scenario and 25 years according to the medium
and 26 years according to the low scenarios. This trend is reflected in the increasing
percentage of the age-groups 16-64, 60+ and 65+, and the decrease in the percentage of
children aged 0-4 and 5-15. For instance, the 16-64 age group will constitute about 64-69%
of the urban population in 2032 according to the three scenarios when compared to 61% in
2012. The population share of the elderly aged 60 years and above will increase from 3% in
2012 to 4-5% in 2032, and the elderly aged 65 years and above from 2% to 3% during the
projections period.

Table 18 Evolution of the age-sex structure of the urban population, 2012-2032 by projection
scenarios
Age-sex Projections Year
structure
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
Indicators
High Scenario
Both sexes 1,732,175 1,963,969 2,088,549 2,353,085 2,789,790 3,108,884 4,010,951 5,062,543
% female 48.7 51.7 51.6 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.0 50.8
Median age 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 24
% aged 0-4 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.2 11.8
% aged 5-15 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.5 22.6 22.0 21.3 21.4
% aged 16-64 60.8 61.3 61.5 61.9 62.8 63.4 63.8 63.9
% aged 60+ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.4
% aged 65+ 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.9
Medium Scenario
Both sexes 1,732,175 1,962,945 2,086,390 2,347,098 2,773,222 3,081,153 3,934,920 4,899,655
% female 48.7 51.7 51.7 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.1 51.0
Median age 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 25
% aged 0-4 13.1 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.3 10.6
% aged 5-15 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.6 22.7 22.0 21.0 20.6
% aged 16-64 60.8 61.3 61.5 62.0 63.1 63.9 64.9 65.7
% aged 60+ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.5
% aged 65+ 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.1
Low Scenario
Both sexes 1,732,175 1,959,685 2,079,532 2,328,156 2,720,594 2,998,734 3,763,993 4,620,880
% female 48.7 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.4 51.4 51.2 51.0
Median age 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 26
% aged 0-4 13.1 12.5 12.2 11.7 10.7 10.3 9.8 9.4
% aged 5-15 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.8 22.8 21.9 19.7 18.4
% aged 16-64 60.8 61.4 61.7 62.5 64.2 65.5 67.5 68.9
% aged 60+ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.8
% aged 65+ 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.3
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

35
6.4 Density of the urban population
Table 19 presents the evolution of the urban population density by projection scenarios. It
reveals that the population density in urban area was already very high in 2012 with 1,871
inhabitants by square kilometre and will increase substantially over time. If the urban surface
area remains unchanged over time, by 2032 the urban population density will be 5,468 (high
scenario), 5,292 (medium scenario) and 4,991 (low scenario).

However, it is more than likely that the urban surface area will increase as new settlements
will be created around the existing urban areas to accommodate the growing urban
population. Therefore the real population density in urban areas will be somehow different
from the one presented in Table 19 but will be still high.

Table 19: Evolution of the density of the urban population by projection scenarios
Projections High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
Year Urban Density Urban Density Urban Density
2012 1,732,175 1,871 1,732,175 1,871 1,732,175 1,871
2014 1,963,969 2,121 1,962,945 2,120 1,959,685 2,117
2015 2,088,549 2,256 2,086,390 2,253 2,079,532 2,246
2017 2,353,085 2,541 2,347,098 2,535 2,328,156 2,515
2020 2,789,790 3,013 2,773,222 2,995 2,720,594 2,938
2022 3,108,884 3,358 3,081,153 3,328 2,998,734 3,239
2027 4,010,951 4,332 3,934,920 4,250 3,763,993 4,065
2032 5,062,543 5,468 4,899,655 5,292 4,620,880 4,991
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

36
Chapter 7: Projections of the rural population
This section will describe the evolution of the rural population between 2012 and 2032
according to the high, medium and low projection scenarios by focussing on the size, density
and age-sex structure. All three projection scenarios are based on the assumption that the
urban population will experience a steady increase from 16.5% in 2012 up to 30% by 2032.
This corresponds to a decrease of the percentage of rural population from 83.5% to 70%
between 2012 and 2032.

7.1 Size of the rural population

Table 20 shows that the rural population will increase from 8.7 million in 2012 to 11.8 million
(high scenario), 11.4 million (medium scenario) and 10.8 million (low scenario) by 2032. This
corresponds to an increase of the size of the rural population by 35.0%, 30.7% and 23.2%
between 2012 and 2032, according to the high, medium and low projection scenarios
respectively.

The rural population will grow twice slower than the total population between 2012 and 2032.
The whole Rwandan population will increase by 61%, 56% and 47% over the projections
period according to the high, medium and low projection scenarios respectively.

Table 20: Evolution of the size of the rural population, 2012-2032 by projection scenarios
Projections High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
Year Rwanda Rural Rwanda Rural Rwanda Rural
2012 10,482,641 8,750,466 10,482,641 8,750,466 10,482,641 8,750,466
2014 11,002,628 9,038,659 10,996,891 9,033,946 10,978,629 9,018,944
2015 11,274,221 9,185,672 11,262,564 9,176,174 11,225,545 9,146,013
2017 11,839,419 9,486,335 11,809,300 9,462,201 11,713,993 9,385,837
2020 12,738,767 9,948,977 12,663,116 9,889,893 12,422,803 9,702,209
2022 13,371,543 10,262,660 13,252,272 10,171,119 12,897,779 9,899,045
2027 15,064,603 11,053,653 14,779,042 10,844,122 14,137,062 10,373,069
2032 16,875,142 11,812,599 16,332,184 11,432,529 15,402,934 10,782,054
% of
Increase
between 61.0% 35.0% 55.8% 30.7% 46.9% 23.2%
2012 and
2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

7.2 Age-sex structure of the rural population

Figure 8 compares the age pyramid of the rural population in 2012 with the age pyramids of
the rural population by 2032 by projection scenarios. It shows that by the end of projections
period, the age-sex structure of the rural population will change based on the assumptions
regarding future growth of urban population and regardless of the projection scenarios. The
rural population will be less young as evidenced by a marked decrease in the share of
children and an increase in the share of other older age groups. However, there will be
considerable difference in the population age-sex structure corresponding between the three
projection scenarios. These changes will be determined by the expected decline in fertility
and mortality across the projection scenarios.

37
Figure 8: Comparison of the 2012 and 2032 age pyramids of the rural population by projection scenarios
Age-group pyramid (%) of the rural population in 2012 Age-group pyramid (%) of rural population by 2032 (Medium scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Age-group pyramid (%) of rural population by 2032 (High scenario) Age-group pyramid (%) of rural population by 2032 (Low scenario)

80-84 80-84
Female Male Female Male
75-79 75-79

70-74 70-74

65-69 65-69

60-64 60-64

55-59 55-59

50-54 50-54

45-49 45-49

40-44 40-44

35-39 35-39

30-34 30-34

25-29 25-29

20-24 20-24

15-19 15-19

10-14 10-14

5-9 5-9

0-4 0-4

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

38
Table 21 provides more detailed information on the changes that will affect the age-sex
structure.

Table 21 shows that irrespective of the projections scenario the share of the women in the
rural population will decrease slightly (from 52.5% in 2012 to 51% in 2032) while the
population will become less and less young over time. The median age will substantially
increase from 19 years to 22 years (high scenario), 23 years (medium scenario) and 25
years (low scenario). The elderly people aged 60 years and above accounted for 5% of the
rural population in 2012 but their share will be greater than 7% in 2032. Similar upward trend
will be observed in the share of the population aged 15-64 years.

Table 21: Evolution of the age-sex structure of the rural population, 2012-2032 by projections
scenario
Age-sex Projections Year
structure
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
Indicators
High Scenario
Both sexes 8,750,466 9,038,659 9,185,672 9,486,335 9,948,977 10,262,660 11,053,653 11,812,599
% female 52.5 51.7 51.6 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.0 50.8
Median age 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 22
% aged 0-4 14.9 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.3
% aged 5-15 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.6 26.8 26.0 25.9
% aged 16-64 52.0 52.6 52.9 53.4 54.5 55.1 55.5 55.9
% aged 60+ 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.3
% aged 65+ 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.6 5.0
Medium Scenario
Both sexes 8,750,466 9,033,946 9,176,174 9,462,201 9,889,893 10,171,119 10,844,122 11,432,529
% female 52.5 51.7 51.7 51.5 51.4 51.3 51.1 51.0
Median age 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 23
% aged 0-4 14.9 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.5 12.9 12.1
% aged 5-15 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.7 26.8 25.7 25.0
% aged 16-64 52.0 52.6 52.9 53.5 54.8 55.7 56.7 57.8
% aged 60+ 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.6
% aged 65+ 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.7 5.2
Low Scenario
Both sexes 8,750,466 9,018,944 9,146,013 9,385,837 9,702,209 9,899,045 10,373,069 10,782,054
% female 52.5 51.7 51.7 51.6 51.4 51.4 51.2 51.0
Median age 19 19 19 20 21 21 23 25
% aged 0-4 14.9 14.3 14.0 13.4 12.3 11.8 11.3 10.7
% aged 5-15 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 26.8 24.2 22.5
% aged 16-64 52.0 52.7 53.1 54.0 55.9 57.3 59.5 61.2
% aged 60+ 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.7 7.4 8.2
% aged 65+ 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.1 5.0 5.6
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

39
7.3 Density of the rural population
The density of the rural population will increase over time but at a slower pace than the
urban population. Table 22 shows that in 2012 there were 359 persons per square kilometre
in rural areas. Twenty years later, this figure will be 484 (high scenario), 469 (medium
scenario) and 442 (low scenario). The true density will be however greater than those figures
given that the urban areas will grow in terms of surface area as discussed in section 3.1.3 (p.
6), implying a reduction of the surface area of the rural area.

Table 22: Evolution of the rural population density, 2012-2032 by projections scenario
Projections High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
Year Rural Density Rural Density Rural Density
2012 8,750,466 359 8,750,466 359 8,750,466 359
2014 9,038,659 371 9,033,946 370 9,018,944 370
2015 9,185,672 377 9,176,174 376 9,146,013 375
2017 9,486,335 389 9,462,201 388 9,385,837 385
2020 9,948,977 408 9,889,893 406 9,702,209 398
2022 10,262,660 421 10,171,119 417 9,899,045 406
2027 11,053,653 453 10,844,122 445 10,373,069 425
2032 11,812,599 484 11,432,529 469 10,782,054 442
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

In any case the increase of the population density is unavoidable. As the population density
will increase, the land pressure will become higher and more arable land will be needed or
more shift from the agricultural industry to non-agricultural industry to relax the land
pressure. Any solution to solve this problem will require that special attention be paid to
ensure that other issues will not be raised. For instance a shift to non-agricultural industry
should not translate into a decrease in the agricultural production. Such a choice should
therefore be accompanied by an intensification and modernization of the agriculture.

40
Chapter 8: Projections of specific interventions target
groups
This section presents the findings on the following specific interventions target groups: the
school-age population, the working-age population, the elderly, the children, the youth, the
women in the reproductive age groups and the legal majority age-groups.

All the projections are based on the medium scenario, the most likely. The evolution of the
size of these groups is needed to assess their specific needs and to better plan, implement,
monitor and evaluate the relevant interventions.

8.1 School-age population

The official school-age groups considered here are: 3-6 for pre-school, 7-12 for primary level
and 13-18 for secondary level. At the national level, the school-age population will increase
from 4.3 million to 5.6 million between 2012 and 2032, equivalent to a percentage increase
of 30% over the next twenty years (Table 23). This increase is mainly driven by the increase
rate in the secondary level age population which is 42%, followed by the primary level age
group (27%). The difference in increase between the age-groups 7-12 and 13-18 is partly
attributed to the expected decline in fertility.

The trends in school-age population displays marked differences by area of residence. The
expected overall increase in school-age population between 2012 and 2032 is 144% in
urban areas when compared to only 11% in rural areas. The increase is mainly driven by the
increase in the population in the secondary level age group, particularly high in urban areas.
A part of this increase is attributed to the rapid growth of urban areas, under the assumption
that urban population will almost double its size between 2012 (16.5%) and 2032 (30%).
This suggests the need for huge investments in physical infrastructure and human resources
in urban areas over the next 20 years, especially if the “Education for all” policy is to be
achieved during the projections period.

Table 23: Evolution of the school-age population, 2012-2032 by level of education and area of
residence according to the medium projections scenario
Rwanda Urban Rural
Projections
7-12 13-18 3-6 7-12 13-18 7-12 13-18
Year 3-6 years 3-6 years
years years years years years years years
2012 1,233,836 1,675,012 1,373,912 172,671 228,020 220,916 1,061,165 1,446,992 1,152,996
2014 1,209,312 1,785,665 1,440,851 183,443 263,664 250,777 1,025,869 1,522,001 1,190,074
2015 1,210,371 1,810,740 1,486,316 190,724 277,960 268,183 1,019,647 1,532,780 1,218,133
2017 1,232,652 1,825,799 1,598,567 208,960 301,698 309,056 1,023,692 1,524,101 1,289,511
2020 1,296,371 1,806,601 1,771,862 242,972 330,059 378,383 1,053,399 1,476,542 1,393,479
2022 1,336,205 1,841,610 1,810,579 266,503 358,059 412,100 1,069,702 1,483,551 1,398,479
2027 1,425,155 1,990,511 1,810,701 328,153 447,150 471,934 1,097,002 1,543,361 1,338,767
2032 1,495,477 2,125,792 1,950,874 392,573 545,179 575,919 1,102,904 1,580,613 1,374,955
% of
Increase
21.2 26.9 42.0 127.4 139.1 160.7 3.9 9.2 19.3
from 2012
to 2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

41
8.2 Working-age population
The official working age in Rwanda is 16-64 years. The size of this working-age population
will increase from 5.6 million in 2012 to 9.8 million in 2032, corresponding to an increase of
75% (Table 24). This increase rate will be even greater in urban area where the working-age
population will increase threefold (205%) in twenty years only. In contrast, the increase in
rural area will be only 45%.

Table 24: Evolution of the working-age population, 2012-2032 by area of residence according
to the medium projections scenario
Projections Working-age population
Year Rwanda Urban Rural
2012 5,603,525 1,053,860 4,549,665
2014 5,959,238 1,203,444 4,755,794
2015 6,140,014 1,283,925 4,856,089
2017 6,521,561 1,455,971 5,065,590
2020 7,171,128 1,750,277 5,420,851
2022 7,632,688 1,968,986 5,663,702
2027 8,701,405 2,554,381 6,147,024
2032 9,824,600 3,218,815 6,605,785
% of Increase
between 2012 75.3 205.4 45.2
and 2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

Figure 9 shows the evolution of the age dependency ratio, which is the number of persons
out of the working age group per 100 persons in the working-age group. The findings show
that there will be fewer dependents as the working-age population increases over time. The
age dependency ratio will decreases from 80 dependents per 100 working-age individuals to
61 for the country as a whole, from 58 to 48 in urban areas and 85 to 67 per 100 working-
age individuals in rural areas.

The age dependency ratio is greater in rural area than in urban area for all projections year.

The downtrend in age dependency ratio is partly a consequence of the decline in fertility
over the projections period. A possible explanation for this observation is the increase in
survivors over age 65, to some extent offset by a decline in the absolute number of child
population aged below 16.

42
Figure 9: Evolution of the age dependency ratio, 2012-2032 by area of residence according to
the medium projections scenario

8.3 Elderly population

In Rwanda, the normal retirement age is now 65 years old whereas the international
definition uses 60. The analysis will consider both definitions.

Table 25 shows that the size of the elderly aged 60 and above will be inevitably more than
doubled between 2012 and 2032, increasing by 115%. The increase will be even more
substantial in urban area where the number of the old people in 2032 will be 4.2 times
greater than in 2012 while in the rural area the increase will be twofold.

The increase also varies by sex, regardless of the area of residence. The increase in relative
terms will be more accentuated among males than females at national and rural level than in
urban area. For instance at the country level, the increase in elderly population between
2012 and 2032 of males will be 128% as compared to 106% among females.

Table 25: Evolution of the size of the elderly (60 years and above) between 2012 and 2032 by
sex and area of residence according to the medium projections scenario
Rwanda Urban Rural
Projections
Year Both Both
Both sexes Male Female Male Female Male Female
sexes sexes
2012 510,156 206,635 303,521 52,662 22,982 29,680 457,494 183,653 273,841
2014 540,319 220,571 319,748 61,347 25,026 36,321 478,971 195,545 283,426
2015 558,796 229,046 329,750 66,112 27,123 38,989 492,684 201,923 290,761
2017 606,901 250,996 355,905 77,601 32,206 45,395 529,300 218,790 310,510
2020 707,059 296,377 410,682 100,555 42,435 58,120 606,504 253,941 352,563
2022 775,241 327,262 447,979 117,755 50,033 67,722 657,487 277,229 380,258
2027 919,669 392,815 526,854 162,683 69,345 93,338 756,986 323,469 433,517
2032 1,096,746 471,247 625,499 222,832 94,946 127,886 873,914 376,301 497,613
% of
Increase
between 115.0 128.1 106.1 323.1 313.1 330.9 91.0 104.9 81.7
2012 and
2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

The general pattern described above is explained mainly by the increase in survivorship
rates especially among males in the adult age groups. In absolute terms, there will be more

43
females than males in the elderly population by 2032. With regard to area of residence, the
elderly will be predominantly concentrated in rural areas as the total Rwandan population.
However, the growth rate of the elderly population will be greater in urban than in rural
areas. This is partly driven by the expected fast increase in urban population by 2032.

For national planning purposes,Error! Reference source not found. presents the evolution
f the size of the population aged 65 years and above. The results confirm the pattern
observed in Table 25.

Table 26: Evolution of the size of the elderly (65 years and above) between 2012 and 2032 by
sex and area of residence according to the medium projections scenario
Rwanda Urban Rural
Projections
year Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female
sexes sexes sexes
2012 334,368 130,369 203,999 34,058 13,646 20,412 300,310 116,723 183,587
2014 346,050 135,678 210,372 38,973 14,515 24,458 307,077 121,163 185,914
2015 356,386 140,514 215,872 41,852 15,727 26,125 314,534 124,787 189,747
2017 382,181 152,542 229,639 48,542 18,561 29,981 333,639 133,981 199,658
2020 429,640 174,400 255,240 60,666 23,688 36,978 368,974 150,712 218,262
2022 473,681 194,344 279,337 71,435 28,251 43,184 402,247 166,093 236,154
2027 623,669 260,782 362,887 109,683 44,272 65,411 513,986 216,511 297,475
2032 740,794 311,906 428,888 149,475 60,282 89,193 591,319 251,624 339,695
% of
Increase
between 121.6 139.2 110.2 338.9 341.8 337.0 96.9 115.6 85.0
2012 and
2032
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

As discussed earlier, the increase in the size of the elderly aged 60 years and above is not
huge in terms of percentage: 4.9% in 2012 to 6.7% in 2032. However, this does not mean
that aging will not be an issue of concern in Rwanda. The challenges for the government will
be to secure resources and build infrastructure to meet the health specific needs of the
elderly, to bring them the appropriate social and economic support and to improve living
arrangements. The existing policies in Rwanda that deal with elderly should pay special
attention to these aspects rather than focusing mainly on the absolute size of the elderly. A
good starting point would be to conduct an in-depth analysis of the living conditions of the
elderly, using the available data sources (PHCs, DHSs and EICVs).

8.4 Other specific interventions target groups

This section presents findings on the size and evolution of certain population sub-groups
targets specific intervention or that fall under the legal categories. These include:

- population targeted by different health interventions (infants below 1 year, children in

the 1-4 age group, children under five and women in the reproductive ages);

- the children (0-17 years), the youth following official definition in Rwanda (14-35
years) and youth according to the international definition (15-24 years);

- the different age-groups that fall under the legal categories: 14 years above (criminal
responsibility), 16 years above (eligibility to national identification), 18 years above
(emancipation age) and 21 years and above (majority age).

44
The findings on the evolution between 2012 and 2032 of these different groups by area of
residence are presented in Table 27, Table 28 and Table 29 respectively. The size of all
these groups will increase, irrespective of the projection scenarios. The increase will
however be far more important in urban than in rural area.

Table 27: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of health interventions
between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium projections
scenario
Area of
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
residence
0 Years
Rwanda 313,036 325,392 330,348 339,694 352,583 360,858 378,549 384,244
Urban 46,216 51,968 54,782 60,502 69,377 75,523 91,313 105,505
Rural 266,820 273,424 275,566 279,192 283,206 285,335 287,236 278,739
0-4 Years
Rwanda 1,532,834 1,553,626 1,572,061 1,623,164 1,696,055 1,740,936 1,841,303 1,899,338
Urban 226,305 248,129 260,696 289,098 333,728 364,355 444,154 521,517
Rural 1,306,529 1,305,497 1,311,365 1,334,066 1,362,327 1,376,581 1,397,149 1,377,821
1-4 Years
Rwanda 1,219,798 1,228,234 1,241,713 1,283,469 1,343,472 1,380,078 1,462,754 1,515,095
Urban 180,089 196,161 205,914 228,596 264,351 288,832 352,842 416,012
Rural 1,039,709 1,032,073 1,035,799 1,054,873 1,079,121 1,091,246 1,109,912 1,099,083
15-49 Years
Rwanda 2,638,451 2,793,695 2,877,025 3,056,767 3,353,961 3,559,259 4,007,949 4,388,877
Urban 477,864 578,702 616,940 699,507 839,449 941,664 1,206,334 1,486,255
Rural 2,160,587 2,214,993 2,260,085 2,357,260 2,514,512 2,617,595 2,801,615 2,902,622
th
Source: Rwanda 4 Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

45
Table 28: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of children and youth
interventions between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium
projections scenario
Area of
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
residence
0-17 Years
Rwanda 4,991,864 5,157,636 5,241,919 5,412,051 5,640,568 5,756,476 6,049,275 6,406,690
Urban 721,054 807,237 852,424 947,317 1,093,790 1,188,024 1,435,339 1,731,120
Rural 4,270,810 4,350,399 4,389,495 4,464,734 4,546,778 4,568,452 4,613,936 4,675,570
14-35 Years
Rwanda 4,174,823 4,392,503 4,498,501 4,721,242 5,083,971 5,304,330 5,777,914 6,297,405
Urban 842,648 952,668 1,009,703 1,129,731 1,328,606 1,467,186 1,829,228 2,241,175
Rural 3,332,175 3,439,835 3,488,798 3,591,511 3,755,365 3,837,144 3,948,686 4,056,230
15-24 Years
Rwanda 2,134,864 2,202,787 2,242,647 2,349,121 2,575,621 2,736,787 2,970,403 3,059,120
Urban 416,262 462,657 487,657 545,108 653,187 734,621 917,121 1,057,735
Rural 1,718,602 1,740,130 1,754,990 1,804,013 1,922,434 2,002,166 2,053,282 2,001,385
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

Table 29: Evolution of the size of relevant legal majority age-groups between 2012 and 2032
by area of residence according to the medium projections scenario
Area of
2012 2014 2015 2017 2020 2022 2027 2032
residence
14 Years and above
Rwanda 6,405,570 6,795,233 7,004,506 7,460,147 8,212,980 8,714,324 9,931,135 11,226,855
Urban 1,160,797 1,325,110 1,414,734 1,609,027 1,937,924 2,174,755 2,817,475 3,558,359
Rural 5,244,773 5,470,123 5,589,772 5,851,120 6,275,056 6,539,569 7,113,660 7,668,496
16 Years and above
Rwanda 5,937,893 6,305,287 6,496,401 6,903,741 7,600,768 8,106,369 9,325,074 10,565,394
Urban 1,087,918 1,242,417 1,325,777 1,504,513 1,810,943 2,040,420 2,664,063 3,368,290
Rural 4,849,975 5,062,870 5,170,624 5,399,228 5,789,825 6,065,949 6,661,011 7,197,104
18 Years and above
Rwanda 5,490,777 5,839,254 6,020,645 6,397,249 7,022,548 7,495,796 8,729,767 9,925,493
Urban 1,011,121 1,155,708 1,233,967 1,399,782 1,679,432 1,893,130 2,499,581 3,168,535
Rural 4,479,656 4,683,546 4,786,678 4,997,467 5,343,116 5,602,666 6,230,186 6,756,958
21 Years and above
Rwanda 4,848,146 5,177,703 5,346,449 5,694,352 6,248,498 6,650,118 7,829,815 9,012,008
Urban 890,528 1,021,746 1,092,528 1,242,046 1,489,152 1,672,952 2,230,917 2,862,665
Rural 3,957,618 4,155,957 4,253,921 4,452,306 4,759,346 4,977,166 5,598,898 6,149,343
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

46
Chapter 9: Projections of the private households
This section presents the evolution of the number and size of the private households
between 2012 and 2032 as well as the evolution of the annual number of newly created
private households between 2013 and 2032. The findings reported here are based on the
medium projections scenario.

9.1 Evolution of the number and size of the private households

Table 30 presents the evolution of the number and size of the private households between
2012 and 2032 based on the medium projections scenario. It shows that, at the national
level, the number of private households is likely to double its current size over the
projections period, increasing from 2.4 million in 2012 to 5.3 million in 2032. However the
mean size of the households will not vary a lot, decreasing from 4.3 to 3.1 persons per
household.

The evolution of the number of households will vary substantially according to the area of
residence, while the evolution of the mean size will be similar in both areas.

The number of urban households will increase by threefold, from 422 thousands in 2012 to
1.6 million in 2032. The mean size of the households will decrease from 4.1 members per
households to 3.1 in the same period. In rural area, the number of households will increase
slower than in urban area: 2 million in 2012 to 3.7 million in 2032, equivalent to an increase
of about 80%. The difference between urban and rural areas is attributed to the assumed
fast growth rate in urban population in the projection scenarios.

Figure 10: Evolution of the private households between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence
according to the medium projections scenario

5,500,000
Rwanda
5,000,000 Urban
Number of Private Households

Rural
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

Projection Year

47
Table 30: Evolution of the number and size of the private households and the newly created
private households between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the
medium projections scenario
Newly HH to be
Projections Year Total Population Mean size Total Households
created
Rwanda
2012 10,482,641 4.3 2,437,823
2014 10,996,891 4.2 2,630,835 98,578
2015 11,262,564 4.1 2,733,632 102,797
2017 11,809,300 4.0 2,952,325 111,575
2020 12,663,116 3.8 3,314,952 125,674
2022 13,252,272 3.7 3,581,695 136,013
2027 14,779,042 3.4 4,346,777 165,055
2032 16,332,184 3.1 5,268,446 197,880
Urban
2012 1,732,175 4.1 422,482
2014 1,962,945 4.0 490,736 35,418
2015 2,086,390 4.0 528,200 37,464
2017 2,347,098 3.9 609,636 41,836
2020 2,773,222 3.7 749,519 49,129
2022 3,081,153 3.6 855,876 54,571
2027 3,934,920 3.4 1,174,603 70,296
2032 4,899,655 3.1 1,580,534 88,870
Rural
2012 8,750,466 4.3 2,015,342
2014 9,033,946 4.2 2,140,099 63,160
2015 9,176,174 4.2 2,205,432 65,333
2017 9,462,202 4.0 2,342,689 69,739
2020 9,889,894 3.9 2,565,432 76,546
2022 10,171,119 3.7 2,725,819 81,443
2027 10,844,122 3.4 3,172,174 94,758
2032 11,432,529 3.1 3,687,913 109,011
Source: Rwanda 4th Population and Housing Census, 2012 (NISR)

9.2 Newly created private households

Figure 11 presents the evolution of the number of newly created private households between
2013 and 2032. It shows that this number will continuously increase over time: from around
90,000 in 2013 up to about 190,000 in 2032. The trend varies by area of residence. In urban
area the annual number of newly created private households will increase rapidly (from
about 30,000 to 90,000 between 2013 and 2032), while in rural area the annual number of
newly created households will increase slowly and even become stable around 60,000 up to
100,000 from 2013 onwards.

48
Figure 11: Evolution of the annual newly created private households between 2013 and 2032
by area of residence according to the medium projections scenario

250,000
Rwanda
Urban
Newly Created Households

200,000 Rural

150,000

100,000

50,000

Projection Year

In conclusion, the number of private households will increase continuously and substantially
in the next 20 years while the mean size will decrease a little. The growth will be fast in
urban area where the number of private households will increase by 274% (almost threefold)
and low in rural area with an increase of about 83% between 2012 and 2032. The fast
increase that will occur in urban area derives from the assumption that the percentage of the
urban population will almost double from 16.5% in 2012 to 30% in 2032.

The patterns described in this section have important policy implications. The threefold
increase of the number of urban private households implies that the urban area will have to
increase the surface area to build new houses. The areas that will host the new settlements
will have to be properly designed and managed: roads have to be built, the new settlements
should be connected to the water supply and electricity network, basic social and
administrative services (health and educational facilities, administrative offices, etc.) should
be put in place. The planning and investments for these infrastructures is critical to
accommodate the projected number of newly created households.

49
Conclusion
Informations from Population projections are crucial to population planners and programme
managers. Rwanda is not an exception in this regard, particularly after the demographic and
social changes the country has experienced in last two decades following the 1994
genocide. Rwanda has the highest population density in Africa along with a population
growth that has been exceptionally high for a long period of time. For these reasons,
Rwanda has long formulated and implemented explicit policies that have direct impact on the
population growth. This is still the case nowadays with many policies dealing with different
sectors related to population issues. The design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation
of such policies and programs require up-to-date and reliable data. The objective of the
present census report on population projections was to contribute to providing such data.

This report forecasted and analyzed the future evolution of the Rwandan population by
applying the standard cohort component projections on data from the 2012 Fourth
Population and Housing Census conducted in Rwanda.

More specifically, the report provided results of population projections covering the 20-year
period 2012-2032 on:

 the size, growth, density and age-sex structure of the total population;
 key fertility and mortality indicators;
 the size, age-sex structure, density and growth of the urban and rural populations;
 the size of specific population groups targets of specific interventions of falling into
some legal categories; and
 the number and size of the private households as well as the annual number of new
households to be created.

The projections were made based on high, medium and low scenarios that combine
assumptions on the future trends of fertility, mortality and international migration, as well as
considering the pace of current and planned future urbanization and potential size of the
private households for the next 20 years. The medium scenario is the most likely one. The
low scenario assumes a full achievement of all planned interventions and the high scenario
assumes a slow response to all existing and future interventions. The assumptions and
scenarios were formulated based on: (i) an analysis of past policies and programmes that
has already influenced or likely to influence population growth in the near future; (ii) the
analysis of the trends of selected key indicators; (iii) and an analysis of the current programs
and policies and their targets, especially the official Revised Vision 2020 aimed at
transforming Rwanda into a middle income country by year 2020.

50
Based on the three projections scenarios, the main findings are as follows.

The Rwandan population is highly likely to increase in the next 20 years, regardless of the
scenarios: from 10.5 million in 2012 to 16.9 million (high scenario) to 16.3 million (medium
scenario) or 15.4 million (low scenario) by 2032. A direct consequence of the future increase
in the population is the unprecedented increase in population density to 645 inhabitants per
square kilometre by 2032, according to the most likely scenario (the medium one). The
population will be less young in the future with the median age increasing from 19 years in
2012 to 24 in 2032 (medium scenario). Consequently the percentage of the adults and old
people in the population will increase over time while the share of the children will almost
stabilize in the last years of the projections period.

The current decline in fertility will continue over time with the total fertility rate decreasing
from 4.0 children per woman to 2.5 (low scenario), 3.0 (medium scenario) and 3.5 (high
scenario). Mortality will also decrease, irrespective of the projection scenarios. According to
the medium scenario, life expectancy at birth is likely to increase from 64.5 years to 71.4
years while infant mortality rate is likely to decrease from 48.6 in 2012 to 27.7 per 1,000 live
births in 2032.

The urbanization rate will increase from 16.5% in 2012 to 30% in 2032. This rapid growth is
translated by the size of the urban population multiplied by a factor of three in the next 20
years: 1.7 million in 2012 to 4.9 million in 2032, according to the medium scenario. As for the
whole population, the urban population will be less young with a median age increasing from
22 years to 25 years between 2012 and 2032. The rural population will increase too but at a
slower pace than the urban population. According to the medium scenario, the rural
population will be 11.4 million in 2032 as compared to 8.7 million in 2012, equivalent to an
increase of about 30%. The rural population will also be less young with a median age
increasing from 19 years to 23 years between 2012 and 2032.

The size of certain population sub-groups such as the school-age population, the working-
age population, the health interventions group, the elderly, the children and youth, and the
legal age-groups categories will increase substantially over the next 20 years, especially in
urban areas. For instance at the national level, the school-age population will increase from
4.3 million to 5.6 million between 2012 and 2032, equivalent to an increase of 30% over 20
years with marked differences by area of residence.

The number of private households will increase from 2.4 million to 5.3 million between 2012
and 2032. It will increase threefold in urban areas whereas in rural areas this increase will be
only 83%. The mean size of the households will vary slightly, decreasing from 4.3 members
per household to 3.1 in 2032 with little variation between urban and rural areas. The annual
number of newly created households will increase continuously over time: from around
90,000 in 2013 up to about 190,000 in 2032.

51
Policy implications
 A significant threat to population and development in Rwanda is the increasing land
pressure. The country needs to put in place explicit policies to deal with the
unavoidable and foreseeable population overcrowding aside from the current policies
aimed at reducing the population growth.

 The expected growth of urban population would exacerbate pressure on land,

settlements, physical infrastructure and resources. This would imply revisiting urban
planning and monitoring related interventions within the high population growth
context, where appropriate giving attention to the future development of new
settlements including roads, transport networks, water and electricity supply, health
and educational facilities and other essential community facilities.

 The growth rate and size of future youth and working-age population would pose
additional challenges in terms of generating sustainable employment and livelihood
opportunities in both urban and rural areas of Rwanda.

 The decline in fertility and improvements in adult and old age survivorship would
imply that the future dependency ratio will be sensitive to the decreasing number of
children and increasing number of elderly people in the population. This would have
implications on providing social support and healthcare and living arrangements of
the elderly population.

52
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54
Annex A Census objectives, methodology and data quality
assessment

A.1 Objectives of the Census

The long-term objective of the Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (RPHC4) is to
contribute to:

i. Improving the level of knowledge on the social, demographic and economic

characteristics of the population of Rwanda;
ii. Enabling a better understanding of population and development interrelationships; and
iii. Reinforcing the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda‟s (NISR) human and technical
capacity.

In the short term, the objectives of the Census are to:

i. Determine the current size of the population of Rwanda and its spatial distribution
among provinces, districts, sectors, cells and villages and among rural and urban areas;
ii. Determine the present demographic, social, economic and cultural characteristics of the
population of Rwanda;
iii. Determine the level, structure and trends in regard to fertility, mortality and migration
among the population in order to come up with the natural and overall growth rates of
the population of Rwanda;
iv. Provide indicators to enable advocacy for particular groups of the population such as
women, children, youth, the elderly and disabled persons;
v. Determine the characteristics of households, housing conditions and household welfare
in Rwanda to further use this information for a more elaborate poverty mapping of the
country;
vi. Produce national population projections using updated demographic data and other
information on population dynamics to enhance future planning;
vii. Update the relevant databases, providing information right down to the smallest
administrative unit in order to enhance the current government policy on „village
clusters‟;
viii. Provide clear details of the current statutory boundaries of all administrative units of the
country to which appropriate geographical codes can then be assigned;
ix. Constitute an updated sampling frame for Rwanda and produce maps for each
enumeration area for future sample surveys; and
x. Promote the use of Census data at national and local level in formulating, monitoring
and evaluation of development programmes.

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A.2 Methodology and Census phases
As mentioned in Chapter 1 of this report, following the preparatory phase of the Census which
consisted of the production of the project documents, schedule and Census budget, the
following technical activities were undertaken.

A.2.1 Census mapping

The purpose of the Census mapping is to divide the whole country into well-delineated
enumeration areas that constitute the smallest operational Census units to be assigned to each
enumerator during the enumeration period.

The Census mapping operation lasted for about a year (from February 2011 to March 2012),
which enabled the NISR to better estimate the number of staff to be recruited (e.g. enumerators,
team leaders, supervisors, etc.) and the other Census infrastructure and facilities necessary for
planning robust field activities. The outcomes of the Census mapping include the production of a
new sampling frame for future surveys and an updated administrative area boundary map for
Rwanda. In total, the country was delineated into 16,728 enumeration areas within the current
boundaries of administrative units, consisting of five provinces, 30 districts and 416 sectors.
This allows for the easy compilation of Census results in these administrative entities.

A.2.2 Pilot Census

Prior to the conducting of the RPHC4, a Pilot Census designed for testing the Census
questionnaires, other Census data-collection tools, enumeration time requirements and the
state-of-preparedness of the entire field work organisation was carried out. This test was
conducted on a sample of 75 enumeration areas throughout all the districts of the country, from
16 to 30 August 2011, exactly one year before the actual Census.

The Pilot Census was a dress rehearsal for the actual Census during which the various
methods and procedures for field organisation were tested as well as the Census
publicity/awareness campaign, Census map products and data-coding and data-entry
equipment.

The lessons learnt from the Pilot Census exercise were used to revise some Census
procedures and instruments necessary for a smooth/successful implementation of the actual
Census enumeration work.

A.2.3 Questionnaires and manuals

The first draft of Census questionnaires prepared by the NISR was submitted to the Census
Technical Committee (CTC) for review before its approval by the National Census Commission
(NCC). The CTC-reviewed Census questionnaires and related manuals were tested during the
Pilot Census.

The lessons learnt during the Pilot Census were used by the NISR to improve and finalise the
Census questionnaires, containing 77 variables, as well as to revise the manuals of instructions

56
for all Census functionaries accordingly. The revised Census questionnaires and manuals were
again reviewed and approved by the CTC before final approval was granted by the NCC to use
the Census questionnaire for the RPHC4.

The questionnaires used to collect data are presented in Annex B of this report. Two different
types of questionnaires were administered – one for private households and one for institutional
households. The questionnaire for private households contained a person record, a household
record and a mortality record. The questionnaire for institutional households contained only a
person record.

A.2.4 Census publicity and sensitisation campaign

Prior to the conducting of Census enumeration a national publicity and sensitisation campaign
was implemented in order to inform the public about the importance and relevance of the fourth
Rwanda RPHC4, as well as to seek their active participation and the involvement and
collaboration of administrative authorities during the Census enumeration period. A subtle and
targeted publicity and awareness campaign was conducted before the Pilot Census, which was
later intensified and diversified to cover all of the country as the actual Census enumeration
period approached.

The active collaboration and participation of Census commissions at both provincial and district
levels in campaign activities contributed significantly to the success of the Census enumeration.

The innovative mass-communication mix that was used to inform the public about the Census
and, at the same time, to ask for their full participation in the RPHC4, included the following:

(i) Census Commission meetings;

(ii) Articles in local newspapers;
(iii) Radio and television programmes;
(iv) Outdoor billboards, banners, publicity spots and press releases; and
(v) Monthly village community development meetings (Umuganda).

The Census results published in this report attest to the high level of cooperation of the political
and administrative authorities and the effective participation of the general public in the entire
Census enumeration process.

A.2.5 Recruitment and training of field staff

The RPHC4 was conducted by personnel from various institutions: the NISR (the Census
executing agency), MINECOFIN, MINALOC (districts and sectors), MINAFFET, the Rwanda
Defence Force, the Rwanda National Police, the Rwanda Correctional Services and MINEDUC
(heads of secondary schools and teachers). The recruitment of Census functionaries was done
by each institution according to the needs (i.e. number and categories of staff) of the NISR,
except in the case of teachers whose recruitment was done by the NISR in collaboration with
administrative authorities at the district, sector and cell levels.

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At each stage of Census implementation, the necessary induction and mandatory training for
NISR staff and Census functionaries took place. For example, the Census mapping phase was
preceded by the training of cartographers, while the Pilot Census and the actual Census
enumeration were preceded by training of enumerators and their supervisors.

About eight weeks prior to the commencement of actual Census enumeration cascading training
was organised for all categories of Census functionaries, namely:

(i) Core master trainers‟ dialogue;

(ii) Training for 275 master trainers;
(iii) Training for 1,004 trainers organised in five training centres, one centre per province;
and
(iv) Training for 24,426 enumerators in 68 training centres spread across all districts of
the country.

The Census training sessions focused on the understanding of Census enumeration processes
and the correct completion of Census questionnaires, reading and interpretation of Census
maps, practical role plays, and field practice. All the trainers and trainees were subjected to
mandatory qualifying tests which they had to pass before being appointed.

In order to mitigate the risk of declining quality of training at the various cascading training
levels, the comprehensive enumerator training was voice-over simulated by core master trainers
at a recording studio. The audio recorded training session was mass-recorded on CDs and
distributed to all the training classes as a reference source for the trainers.

A.2.6 Actual Census enumeration

As initially planned, the actual Census enumeration of the population in private and institutional
households was conducted across the country from 16 to 30 August to 2012, immediately after
the Census reference night.

Although data-collection activities were carried out by well-trained enumerators, quality

assurance of the Census enumeration was ensured through close supervision by line managers
at various levels. The Census functionaries deployed for the RPHC4 comprised the following
personnel:

(i) Enumerators and support staff;

(ii) Team supervisors, covering an average of five enumeration areas each;
(iii) Sector controllers;
(iv) Zonal supervisors, covering between two and five administrative sectors;
(v) District coordinators;
(vi) Province coordinators; and
(vii) National coordinators.

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In accordance with the instructions contained in the Census Manual, each manager oversaw
and ensured the operations of daily Census activities within his/her area of supervision.
Enumerators were accountable for the work done on a daily basis to their team leaders, who
carried out the verification of completed questionnaires and also resolved to the best of their
ability challenges and/or problems encountered.

The team leaders communicated their daily progress achieved to the innovative Census
Command and Control Centre (CC&CC) established at the NISR using a SMS (i.e. Short
Message Service) system. The CC&CC system was an open source and web-based system
that allowed NISR senior management and authorised staff to continually monitor the progress
of Census enumeration in all the 16,728 enumeration areas via the internet. These officials were
also able to contact each other through a MTN Closed User Group.

Prior to the conducting of Census enumeration, a robust field operations plan with worst case
scenarios and risk analyses was established to facilitate hitch-free data collection and
supervision of the work. Appropriate logistical support was made available to field staff, such as
bicycles, motorcycles, vehicles and other necessary equipment. The mechanism utilised for the
distribution of Census material for data collection as well as the repatriation of questionnaires
and other materials to NISR headquarters was mainly facilitated by Rwanda Defence Force
trucks.

A.2.7 Post-enumeration activities

The logistical arrangement employed for the repatriation, inventory of Census questionnaires
and collating of Census counts was swift and seamless, which enabled the rapid publishing of
the Provisional Census Report within 90 days of Census enumeration being concluded. The
other post-enumeration activities included: the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES); data coding;
data processing; the release of final results; thematic analysis; and the dissemination of Census
results.

The PES was conducted from 19 September to 3 October 2012. The aim of the PES was to
assess the coverage and quality of Census data gathered during the actual Census. A total of
120 enumeration areas was sampled from across all districts of the country.

The data-coding and data-processing activities were done concurrently and completed within six
months. The Census data-cleaning, data-editing and data-stabilisation processes were
completed in two months, after which approximately 1,000 basic Census data tables were
generated. The final results were subjected to an in-depth analysis across 17 generic themes
(one of which is presented in this report) in accordance with the analysis plan developed for
each theme. Census monographs for each of the 30 districts will also be produced.

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 A.3 Data quality assessment
An independent quality review (available as an internal report to NISR) was conducted in
parallel with the thematic analysis. This investigated the work done prior, during, and after
enumeration to maximise the data quality. The assessment confirmed the strong planning and
quality assurance throughout the enumeration to maximise representation of the population; but
also found potentially weaker direct quality assurance during the data processing phase. The
overall conclusion of the assessment is that the RPHC4 was implemented with strong quality
control and gives an excellent representation of the population of Rwanda with generally good
measurement of its structure both in terms of spread and demographic and socio-economic
characteristics.

The claim of high quality with respect to representation is confirmed by the Post-Enumeration
Survey (PES), which measured the net-coverage of the household population in the RPHC4 to
be over 99% nationally with little variation across regions and by age and sex. Gross under-
coverage was around 1.5% while gross over-coverage (erroneous inclusions) was around 0.6%.
The conclusion of excellent representation is also consistent with the plausible growth rate for
the population over the inter-censal period implied by the national results.

Analysis of the demographic and socio-economic information contained in the final RPHC4
database and triangulation with other data sources also confirm that for most areas, the RPHC4
gives a reliable and comprehensive representation of the population. However, some issues
were found with respect to measurement of population characteristics: some possible under-
reporting of males (especially at young ages), some age-heaping around the digits 0 and 2 as
well as particular irregularities around the ages 2 and 12. Moreover, despite careful testing of
the questionnaire with explicit enumerator instructions regarding these sections, there is also
evidence of under-reporting of mortality, and to a lesser extent fertility. Indirect estimation may
be appropriate in these two thematic areas. However, apart from these issues the analysis of
the RPHC4 database supports the assertion of good quality with respect to measurement.

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Annex B Census questionnaire
This annex provides the key pages of the Census questionnaires. The full questionnaires
including all cover sheets can be obtained from the NISR.

As mentioned above, two different types of questionnaires were administered, one for private
households and one for institutional households. The questionnaire for private households
contained a person record, a household record and a mortality record. The questionnaire for
institutional households contained only a person record.

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B.1 Private households: person record

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 SECTION P – CHARACTERISTICS OF POPULATION
FOR ALL MEMBERS OF HOUSEHOLD
FOR RESIDENTS LESS THAN 18 YEARS OLD P23 – Is [NAME] available to work?

P01 – Serial Number of the person P14 – Parental survivorship and residence 1. Yes 2. No Go to P29
P14a - Is [NAME]’s natural mother 1. Yes 2. No P24 – Has [NAME] been seeking for work
NAME: ____________________________________ alive? 3. Don’t know during the last 7 days (8-14/08/2012)?
___________________________________________ P14b - If yes, does [NAME]’s 1. Yes 0. No
P02 – What is [NAME]’s relationship to the Head of natural mother live in this 2. No 1. Yes, 1st job Go to P29
household?
2. Yes, new job
Household?
2. Spouse 6. Brother/Sister P14c - Is [NAME]’s natural father 1. Yes 2. No FOR RESIDENTS WHO ARE CURRENTLY
3. Son/Daughter 7. Grandchild alive? 3. Don’t know WORKING or HAVE EVER WORKED
4. Unrelated Child 8. Other Relative P14d - If yes, does [NAME]’s natural 1. Yes P25 – What was [NAME]’s main occupation
5. Father/Mother 9. Non Relative father live in this household? 2. No (type of work) during the last 7 days preceding
P03 – Is [NAME] male or female? P15 – Was [NAME]’s birth registered? the census night or during the last time he/she
1. Male 2. Female 1. Yes 2. No 3. Don’t know worked?
_________________________
P04 – In what month and year was [NAME] born? FOR RESIDENTS AGED 3 YEARS or OLDER
_________________________
Month:_______ Year:
P16 – Can [NAME] read and write with
understanding in the following languages? P26 – What is [NAME]’s status in employment?
P05 – How old was [NAME] at his/her last birthday? Kinyarwanda 1 Record the SUM of the 1. Employee 5. Producers’ cooperative
codes circled 2. Employer member
Record age in completed years French 2
3. Self-employed 6. Other
English 4
P06 – What is residence status of [NAME]? Other 8
4. Contributing family worker
1. Present Resident – PR None 0 P27 – What is the main product, service or
2. Absent Resident - AR P17 – Has [NAME] ever attended school? activity of [NAME]’s place of work?
3. Visitor – VIS ________________________
1. Has never attended Go to P20
________________________
2. Has ever attended
FOR USUAL RESIDENTS P28 – What is [NAME]’s institutional sector of
3. Is currently attending school
P18a – What is the highest level of education employment?
P07 – Where [NAME] was born?
[NAME] attended? 1. Public 3. Non-profit institution
Province: _____________________ 2. Private 4. Household
Level Level
District: _______________________ Preschool 0 Secondary 3 FOR RESIDENTS AGED 12 YEARS or OLDER
Foreign Country: _______________
Primary 1 University 4
Post Primary 2 P29 – What is [NAME]’s marital status?
P08 – What is [NAME]’s Nationality? 1. Never married 3. Separated 5. Divorced
P18b – How many years of school did [NAME]
1st Nationality: ___________________ complete at that level? 2. Married 4. Widowed
2nd Nationality: ___________________ Level Years Completed If never married and FEMALE P33
Foreigner:________________________ Preschool 0 1 2 3 If Widowed or Divorced P32
(Record the name of the country) Primary 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
If never married and MALE Next Person
Post primary 0 1 2 3
P09 – Where was [NAME] residing previously? Secondary 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 P30 – How many spouses [NAME] have?
Province: ______________________ University 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ (For men only)
District: _______________________ P19 – What is the highest certificate/degree Current number of spouses:
Foreign Country: _______________ [NAME] obtained?
0. None P31 – What is the rank of [NAME] to the
5. A1: Bacc/Diploma
P10 – How long has [NAME] been living 1. CE/FM spouse? (For women only)
6. A0: Bachelor
continuously in this District? 2. EMA/ENTA Current rank as spouse:
7. MA: Master
Record 000 if less than 1 year; 3. A3/D4/D5
Record 999 if the residence has 4. A2/D6/D7
8. PhD: Doctorate P32 – How old was [NAME] when he/she first
not changed since birth got married or lived together with partner?
FOR RESIDENTS AGED 5 YEARS or OLDER
P11 – What is [NAME]’s Religion? Age at first marriage :
P20 – Aside from his/her own housework, did
1. Catholic 4. Muslim 7. No Religion [NAME] work at least 1 hour during the last 7 FOR RESIDENT WOMEN AGED 12 YEARS or
2. Protestant 5. Jehovah Witness 8. Other………...….. days preceding the census night (8-14/08/2012)? OLDER
3. Adventist 6. Tradit/Animist
1. Yes Go to P25
P12 – Does [NAME] have any difficulty or problem P33 – How many live births [NAME] has ever
2. No had?
as listed below? If yes, what were the causes? P21 – Why [NAME] did not work during the If none, write 00 for each sex and proceed to the next
Type of disability (D) Causes (C) last 7 days (8-14/08/2012)? person
1. Seeing 1. Congenital
0. Home worker
2. Hearing 2. Disease/Illness Male Female
1. Non-worker (Never worked)
3. Speaking 3. Injury/Accident
4. War/Mines
2. Non-worker (Ever worked) P34 – Among those children, how many are still
4. Walking/Climbing 3. On leave, but has job P25 alive?
5. Genocide
5. Learning/Concentrating 4. Retired
6. Not Known 5. Oldness Male Female
6. Other………………….
7. Other……………. 6. Student Go to P23
7. Other: …………………………….. P35 – How many live births has [NAME] had
If None (Write 0 in first D P13)
during the last 12 months (from 15 August 2011
D C D C D C D C D C D C P22 – Did [NAME] do one of the following to 15 August 2012)?
activities during the last 7 days (8-14/08/2012)? Male Female
P13 – What is [NAME]’s Medical insurance? 1. Farming/Rearing animals/Fishing
2. Production Go to P25 P36 – Among those children, how many are still
1. Mutuelle 2. RAMA 3. MMI 4. FARG 3. Services/Selling alive?
5. Insurance Cie 6. School 7. NGO 8. Employer 4. House worker at someone’s house
Male Female
9. None 10. Other…………………………………… 5. Home worker at own house
6. None

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B.2 Private households: household record and mortality record

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B.3 Institutional households: person record

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Annex C Glossary of key terms and definitions

This Glossary provides definitions of key concepts and indicators used in the thematic reports of
the Fourth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (RPHC4). Readers are referred to the
methodological sections of the respective reports for a more detailed technical explanation of
indicators.

C.1 Population and demographic characteristics

Residents: persons who have lived for more than six months in the place where they were
enumerated or who intended to live for more than six months in that place. They represent the
population usually living in a place. Residents could be:

• Present residents: present in their place of usual residence on the reference night; or
• Absent residents: not present in their place of usual residence on the reference night.
The person must be absent for a period shorter than or equal to six months.

Visitors: persons who were not usual residents of the household. They might be residents in
another place in Rwanda, and thus absent residents in that place, or non-residents of the
country, for example tourists present at the moment of the Census.

De facto population (present residents + visitors): includes all persons physically present in the
country or area at the reference date.

De jure population (present residents + absent residents): includes all usual residents of the
given country or area, whether or not they were physically present in the area at the reference
date. The de jure population is also referred to as the (usual) resident population. Most of the
analysis presented in these thematic reports is based on the de jure population.

Demographic dependency ratio: is measured as the ratio between those typically not in the
labour force and the age group typically in the labour force. Using the national definition of
working age, it is defined as the sum of persons aged 0 to 15 and elderly people aged 60 and
above, divided by the population in the 16 to 59 age group, multiplied by 100. For international
comparisons, age groups 0 to 14 and 65 and above are used to identify dependents.

Population pyramid: graphically displays a population‟s age and sex composition. Horizontal
bars present the numbers (or percentages) of males and females in each age group or at each
individual age. The sum of all the age/sex groups in the population pyramid equals the total
population.

Sex: refers to the classification of people as male or female, based on biological and
physiological characteristics such as chromosomes, hormones, and reproductive organs.

Sex ratio: the number of males per 100 females in the population. A sex ratio of 100 would
imply that there are as many males as females.

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Disability status: characterises the population into those with and without a disability. The
„International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health‟ defines disability as „an
umbrella term for impairments, activity limitations and participation restrictions. It denotes the
negative aspects of the interaction between an individual (with a health condition) and that
individual‟s contextual factors (environmental and personal factors).‟ The following limitations in
activity functioning are considered in the RPHC4: seeing, hearing, speaking, walking/climbing,
learning/concentrating and another type of difficulty/disability.

Total fertility rate (TFR): refers to the average number of children a hypothetical cohort of
women would have at the end of their reproductive period during their lifetime if they were
subject to experiencing the ASFRs of a given period. It is calculated by summing the ASFRs
and multiplying the sum by the width of the age interval. The indirect estimate of TFR for
Rwanda is obtained by applying the Arriaga (ARFE2) method after adjusting the ASFRs using
the El Badry correction procedure.

Age-specific fertility rate (ASFR): refers to the number of births to women in a specific age
group, divided by the number of women in that age group. The ASFR is expressed as number
of births per 1,000 women.

Mean age at childbearing: the mean age of mothers at the time of the birth of their children if
women were subject throughout their lives to the ASFRs observed in a given year.

Parity: the number of children born alive to a woman. Zero parity women are those with no live
births and single parity refers to those women who have one child and so on.

Nuptiality: refers to marriage as a population phenomenon, including the rate at which it

occurs, the characteristics of people united in marriage, and the dissolution of such unions
(through divorce, separation, widowhood, and annulment). The question on marital status was
formulated as follows: „what is [name]‟s marital status?‟ Men in marital union were further asked
the type of union, whether it is a monogamous or a polygamous union, and the age at first
union. Women in union were asked about their rank as spouse and their age at first union.

Marital status: personal status of each individual in relation to the marriage laws or customs of
the country and defined in the Census in five categories: Never married: an individual who has
never been in a union; Married: an individual who was in marital union at the moment of the
Census, legally or not; Divorced: an individual who has been separated from his or her spouse
through a court decision, according to legislation; Separated: an individual who has separated
temporarily from his/her spouse and is awaiting the court decision; Widowed: a man or a woman
who has lost his or her spouse by death, not yet remarried. The marital status of all usual
residents aged 12 and above is enquired about in the Census questionnaire.

Monogamous: is defined as having one spouse. This indicator is only calculated for currently
married or separated males aged 12 and above living in private households.

Polygamous: is defined as having more than one spouse. This indicator is only calculated for
currently married or separated males aged 12 and above living in private households.

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 C.2 Housing and household characteristics
Housing unit: a separate and independent place of abode intended for habitation by a single
household or one not intended for habitation but occupied by a household at the time of the
Census. The essential features of housing units are separateness and independence.

Household: the concept of the household is based on the arrangements in regard to food or
other essentials for living. One household occupies a single housing unit.

Private household: consists of one or more persons living together and sharing at least one
daily meal. Persons in a private household may or may not be related, or may constitute a
combination of persons both related and unrelated. In order to facilitate analysis of the de jure
population (usual residents) across thematic reports, private households were further
categorised as follows:

a) Households where there is at least one usual resident in the household (present or
absent resident); and
b) Households consisting only of visitors (e.g. households found during the Census in their
holiday homes, etc.)

Subsequently, and across all thematic reports, any analysis of the characteristics of „private
households‟ will refer to the definition in (a) above, whereas analysis of „private housing units‟
will refer to households under both (a) and (b).

Institutional household: comprises a group of persons who are being provided with
institutionalised care, and includes educational institutions, health care institutions, military
institutions, religious institutions, or institutions for the elderly or persons with disabilities. In the
RPHC4, persons who were homeless on the night of the Census were also classified as
belonging to an institutional household.

Head of household: refers to a person recognised as such by the respondent. Every private
household has one and only one household head.

Sources of drinking water: have been split into improved and unimproved sources. Improved
sources include internal pipe-borne water, pipe-borne water in the compound, public tap outside
the compound, protected spring/well, and rain water. These categorisations are based on the
definition developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children‟s
Fund (UNICEF) Joint Monitoring Programme (NISR, n.d.) in 2010. Unimproved sources include
unprotected springs/wells, rivers and lakes/streams/ponds/surface water.

Housing tenure: refers to legal occupation of the dwelling. Usually, occupancy here is defined
as owner, tenant, hire purchase, free lodging, staff housing or refugee/temporary camp
settlement.

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 C.3 Education
Education system (Rwanda) and degrees/certificates: the education system in Rwanda is
organised in four levels:

• Pre-primary education: is organised in nursery schools for a period of three years for
children between the ages of three and six.
• Primary education: lasts for six years and the official age at this level is seven to 12.
• Secondary education: lasts for six years and the official age for this level is 13 to 18. It
is composed of lower secondary (the first three years – often referred to as Tronc
Commun) and upper secondary (the second three years). The following certificates
and/or diplomas were or are currently awarded at this level of education:
i) ENTA: (Ecole Normale Technique Auxiliaire) – a certificate awarded upon
successful completion of five years of secondary school. This type of certificate is
no longer available.
ii) A3/D4/D5: certificates awarded upon successful completion of three, four or five
years of secondary school. This type of certificate is no longer available.
iii) A2/D6/D7: certificates awarded upon successful completion of six or seven years
of secondary school.
Previously, post-primary education constituted an alternative to lower secondary
school that targeted specialised fields of study and allowed students, after successfully
completing three years of study, to either: i) enter upper secondary level or ii) enter the
labour market. Some disaggregations by highest level attended may group post-primary
and secondary education. The following certificates and/or diplomas were awarded at
this level of education:
i) EMA (Ecole des Moniteurs Auxiliaire): a certificate awarded upon successful
completion of two years of post-primary education, when this level existed in the
education system.
ii) CE/FM (Centre d’Enseignement Rural Artisanal Integré/Certificat d'Etude
Familiale): a certificate awarded upon successful completion of three years of
post-primary education.
• Tertiary education: the duration of tertiary education varies between three and six
years according to the institution and the field of study. The following certificates and/or
diplomas were or are currently awarded at this level of education:
i) Bacc/diploma: a degree previously awarded upon successful completion of two
years of university. It is no longer available.
ii) Bachelor’s: a degree awarded upon successful completion of four years of
university.
iii) Master’s: a degree awarded to a university graduate upon his/her successful
completion of at least one year of post-graduate studies.
iv) PhD: a degree awarded to a university graduate upon his/her successful
completion of a doctoral programme, usually lasting between three and four
years.

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Highest level of education attended: current or previous attendance at any regular accredited
educational institution or programme, public or private, for organised learning at pre-school,
primary, post-primary, secondary, university level – or none.

Net Attendance Ratio (NAR): attendance of the official age group for a given level of education
expressed as a percentage of the corresponding school-age population.

Literacy: the ability to both read and write with understanding (self-reported). A literate person
is one who can both read and write a short, simple statement on his or her everyday life. An
illiterate person is one who cannot, with understanding, both read and write such a statement.
Hence, a person capable of reading and writing only figures and his or her own name should be
considered illiterate, as should a person who can read but not write as well as one who can read
and write only a ritual phrase that has been memorised. Literacy is recorded in the following
languages: Kinyarwanda, English, French and Other.

C.4 Employment/economic activity

Working age: even though the minimum working age specified in the labour law of Rwanda is
16, the 2012 RPHC collected data on the economic activities of persons aged five and above.
The official retirement age is 60, but there is no upper limit to the working age in the Rwandan
context. Employment indicators are computed for the resident population aged 16 and above,
except for the analysis of children in employment.

Employed population: refers to persons who worked at least one hour in the seven-day period
before the Census night, or who were temporarily absent from a job, or who were engaged in
productive activities during the reference period, including: farming/rearing animals/fishing;
production; services/selling; and domestic work at someone else‟s house.

Unemployed population: refers to persons who, during the seven-day period before the
Census night, were without work but available for work. This constitutes the „relaxed‟ definition
of unemployment, as the condition of seeking work during the reference period is not taken into
consideration.

Economically active population/labour force: refers to the sum of the employed and
unemployed populations.

Inactive population: refers to persons who during the seven-day period before the Census
night were without work and not available for work. These include persons looking after the
house/family, students, people who have retired and persons who consider themselves too old
to work.

Labour force participation rate (LFPR): defined as the ratio of the active population to the
sum of the active and inactive population, expressed in percentage terms. Persons whose
economic activity status has not been stated are excluded from the calculation of the LFPR.

74
Unemployment rate: defined as the ratio of unemployed to the labour force, expressed in
percentage terms.

Status in employment: the International Standard Classification of status in employment

identifies the following statuses: employees are persons working in paid (wage/salary, in-kind)
employment; employers are persons on own account or with one or a number of partners in a
self-employed job who engage one or more employees on a continuous basis; the self-
employed are persons on own account or with one or a number of partners in a self-employed
job not engaging any employee on a continuous basis; contributing family workers are persons
working for an establishment operated by a household member who cannot be regarded as a
partner; and members of producers’ cooperatives are persons working in a cooperative
producing goods and services, in a self-employed job, not engaging any employee on a
continuous basis.

Main industry and main occupation: the classifications of the main branch of economic
activity are based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), version 4 and
the classifications of the main occupation are based on the International Standard Classification
of Occupations (ISCO), version 4.

Economic dependency ratio: is measured as the ratio between economically dependent

persons (sum of unemployed, inactive, and children aged five and under) and employed
persons, multiplied by 100. An economic dependency ratio of 100 would imply that one
employed person has to support one economically dependent person.

C.5 Socio-cultural characteristics

Religion: the following nine response options were offered to measure religious affiliation in
Rwanda: Catholic, Protestant, Adventist, Jehovah‟s Witness, other Christian religion, Muslim,
traditionalist/animist, other religion and no religious affiliation

Nationality: nationality means the state of being legally a citizen of a particular country or the
legal right of belonging to a particular nation whether by birth or naturalisation. Types of
nationality are identified as single and dual nationality, which refers to the state of being a
citizen of two countries. Article 7 of the Constitution of Rwanda specifies that persons of
Rwandan origin, along with their descendants, have the right to acquire Rwandan nationality on
demand. The same article provides allowance for dual nationality.

75
 Annex C: Supplementary tables
Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Single
Both Both Both Both Both
age Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0 322,079 162,858 159,221 329,491 166,612 162,879 336,669 170,247 166,422 343,733 173,826 169,907 350,803 177,408 173,395
1 308,167 153,759 154,408 317,309 160,216 157,093 324,863 164,053 160,810 332,196 167,779 164,417 339,429 171,456 167,973
2 305,623 152,425 153,198 305,973 152,618 153,355 315,167 159,089 156,078 322,790 162,962 159,828 330,199 166,727 163,472
3 303,897 151,511 152,386 304,087 151,610 152,477 304,513 151,841 152,672 313,740 158,320 155,420 321,410 162,216 159,194
4 302,597 150,815 151,782 302,731 150,884 151,847 302,977 151,011 151,966 303,458 151,270 152,188 312,712 157,756 154,956
5 301,561 150,252 151,309 301,663 150,304 151,359 301,841 150,396 151,445 302,131 150,546 151,585 302,656 150,828 151,828
6 314,187 156,517 157,670 300,779 149,819 150,960 300,918 149,890 151,028 301,132 150,000 151,132 301,459 150,169 151,290
7 311,696 155,206 156,490 313,478 156,121 157,357 300,132 149,456 150,676 300,302 149,543 150,759 300,547 149,669 150,878
8 306,146 152,311 153,835 311,076 154,860 156,216 312,883 155,787 157,096 299,589 149,150 150,439 299,786 149,251 150,535
9 297,448 147,770 149,678 305,610 152,014 153,596 310,555 154,570 155,985 312,382 155,508 156,874 299,133 148,894 150,239
10 286,082 141,831 144,251 296,991 147,522 149,469 305,160 151,769 153,391 310,118 154,332 155,786 311,963 155,278 156,685
11 273,136 135,070 138,066 285,692 141,624 144,068 296,602 147,315 149,287 304,778 151,565 153,213 309,747 154,133 155,614
12 260,237 128,356 131,881 272,787 134,888 137,899 285,341 141,441 143,900 296,254 147,132 149,122 304,435 151,384 153,051
13 249,254 122,692 126,562 259,903 128,181 131,722 272,450 134,711 137,739 285,003 141,262 143,741 295,917 146,954 148,963
14 241,403 118,725 122,678 248,910 122,509 126,401 259,557 127,996 131,561 272,101 134,523 137,578 284,652 141,072 143,580
15 235,974 116,060 119,914 241,030 118,521 122,509 248,537 122,304 126,233 259,181 127,789 131,392 271,721 134,311 137,410
16 230,909 113,642 117,267 235,563 115,829 119,734 240,622 118,291 122,331 248,130 122,073 126,057 258,770 127,554 131,216
17 225,438 110,986 114,452 230,464 113,388 117,076 235,121 115,575 119,546 240,184 118,039 122,145 247,692 121,819 125,873
18 220,753 108,590 112,163 224,964 110,710 114,254 229,993 113,112 116,881 234,653 115,301 119,352 239,720 117,765 121,955
19 216,862 106,399 110,463 220,250 108,292 111,958 224,465 110,413 114,052 229,495 112,816 116,679 234,160 115,005 119,155
20 213,561 104,382 109,179 216,328 106,079 110,249 219,721 107,974 111,747 223,940 110,096 113,844 228,974 112,499 116,475
21 210,591 102,453 108,138 213,000 104,042 108,958 215,774 105,742 110,032 219,172 107,638 111,534 223,396 109,762 113,634
22 207,675 100,645 107,030 210,011 102,103 107,908 212,427 103,695 108,732 215,208 105,397 109,811 218,613 107,296 111,317
23 204,656 99,037 105,619 207,085 100,292 106,793 209,428 101,754 107,674 211,852 103,348 108,504 214,641 105,053 109,588
24 201,352 97,636 103,716 204,063 98,688 105,375 206,500 99,947 106,553 208,852 101,411 107,441 211,285 103,009 108,276
25 197,726 96,311 101,415 200,762 97,293 103,469 203,481 98,350 105,131 205,926 99,612 106,314 208,287 101,080 107,207
26 193,926 94,981 98,945 197,140 95,974 101,166 200,183 96,960 103,223 202,910 98,022 104,888 205,364 99,288 106,076
27 189,858 93,404 96,454 193,343 94,648 98,695 196,563 95,645 100,918 199,613 96,637 102,976 202,348 97,702 104,646
28 185,197 91,330 93,867 189,279 93,073 96,206 192,768 94,321 98,447 195,995 95,323 100,672 199,052 96,319 102,733
29 179,802 88,597 91,205 184,621 91,003 93,618 188,706 92,747 95,959 192,201 93,998 98,203 195,434 95,005 100,429
30 173,702 85,285 88,417 179,233 88,273 90,960 184,052 90,678 93,374 188,140 92,424 95,716 191,640 93,679 97,961
31 167,735 82,016 85,719 173,142 84,968 88,174 178,670 87,953 90,717 183,489 90,357 93,132 187,580 92,105 95,475
32 161,396 78,595 82,801 167,184 81,705 85,479 172,588 84,654 87,934 178,114 87,635 90,479 182,933 90,038 92,895
33 153,287 74,196 79,091 160,855 78,292 82,563 166,639 81,398 85,241 172,040 84,342 87,698 177,563 87,320 90,243
34 142,939 68,579 74,360 152,765 73,906 78,859 160,321 77,993 82,328 166,100 81,094 85,006 171,499 84,035 87,464
35 131,182 62,205 68,977 142,443 68,306 74,137 152,248 73,618 78,630 159,793 77,697 82,096 165,568 80,793 84,775
36 118,650 55,379 63,271 130,718 61,953 68,765 141,952 68,035 73,917 151,737 73,334 78,403 159,272 77,404 81,868
37 107,076 49,094 57,982 118,220 55,149 63,071 130,255 61,702 68,553 141,463 67,766 73,697 151,228 73,051 78,177
38 98,007 44,304 53,703 106,674 48,884 57,790 117,787 54,918 62,869 129,790 61,450 68,340 140,971 67,497 73,474
39 92,476 41,618 50,858 97,622 44,107 53,515 106,265 48,671 57,594 117,346 54,685 62,661 129,317 61,196 68,121
40 89,614 40,510 49,104 92,091 41,424 50,667 97,226 43,906 53,320 105,844 48,455 57,389 116,893 54,448 62,445

76
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 87,854 40,035 47,819 89,219 40,312 48,907 91,695 41,226 50,469 96,818 43,701 53,117 105,411 48,234 57,177
42 85,778 39,344 46,434 87,446 39,829 47,617 88,814 40,109 48,705 91,290 41,023 50,267 96,400 43,492 52,908
43 83,254 38,361 44,893 85,361 39,132 46,229 87,031 39,620 47,411 88,403 39,904 48,499 90,878 40,818 50,060
44 79,738 36,758 42,980 82,836 38,147 44,689 84,942 38,919 46,023 86,614 39,409 47,205 87,990 39,696 48,294
45 75,637 34,766 40,871 79,325 36,546 42,779 82,416 37,931 44,485 84,522 38,704 45,818 86,196 39,197 46,999
46 71,382 32,709 38,673 75,234 34,557 40,677 78,911 36,331 42,580 81,996 37,714 44,282 84,101 38,487 45,614
47 67,913 31,064 36,849 70,984 32,502 38,482 74,823 34,344 40,479 78,490 36,112 42,378 81,569 37,491 44,078
48 65,864 30,046 35,818 67,511 30,855 36,656 70,573 32,288 38,285 74,399 34,123 40,276 78,055 35,884 42,171
49 65,689 29,860 35,829 65,443 29,827 35,616 67,088 30,634 36,454 70,140 32,062 38,078 73,952 33,888 40,064
50 66,752 30,222 36,530 65,231 29,620 35,611 64,995 29,592 35,403 66,637 30,398 36,239 69,678 31,819 37,859
51 68,505 30,888 37,617 66,243 29,957 36,286 64,742 29,365 35,377 64,517 29,342 35,175 66,156 30,145 36,011
52 69,626 31,273 38,353 67,942 30,594 37,348 65,707 29,678 36,029 64,227 29,096 35,131 64,012 29,077 34,935
53 69,026 30,905 38,121 69,016 30,956 38,060 67,355 30,289 37,066 65,150 29,387 35,763 63,691 28,815 34,876
54 65,953 29,455 36,498 68,388 30,575 37,813 68,388 30,631 37,757 66,753 29,977 36,776 64,576 29,088 35,488
55 61,099 27,229 33,870 65,316 29,127 36,189 67,738 30,240 37,498 67,749 30,300 37,449 66,139 29,659 36,480
56 55,631 24,727 30,904 60,480 26,911 33,569 64,665 28,793 35,872 67,074 29,898 37,176 67,096 29,964 37,132
57 50,693 22,460 28,233 55,033 24,421 30,612 59,840 26,583 33,257 63,992 28,448 35,544 66,388 29,546 36,842
58 46,508 20,539 25,969 50,107 22,162 27,945 54,406 24,102 30,304 59,170 26,241 32,929 63,287 28,088 35,199
59 43,550 19,178 24,372 45,922 20,242 25,680 49,485 21,846 27,639 53,742 23,764 29,978 58,460 25,879 32,581
60 41,479 18,219 23,260 42,949 18,874 24,075 45,297 19,926 25,371 48,823 21,509 27,314 53,033 23,403 29,630
61 39,728 17,416 22,312 40,849 17,901 22,948 42,306 18,550 23,756 44,630 19,588 25,042 48,114 21,150 26,964
62 37,662 16,465 21,197 39,066 17,084 21,982 40,178 17,564 22,614 41,621 18,205 23,416 43,917 19,229 24,688
63 35,123 15,259 19,864 36,974 16,122 20,852 38,362 16,732 21,630 39,464 17,207 22,257 40,892 17,840 23,052
64 31,863 13,672 18,191 34,420 14,912 19,508 36,244 15,760 20,484 37,615 16,361 21,254 38,706 16,831 21,875
65 28,185 11,860 16,325 31,166 13,334 17,832 33,676 14,548 19,128 35,471 15,380 20,091 36,822 15,971 20,851
66 24,327 9,959 14,368 27,510 11,540 15,970 30,428 12,978 17,450 32,888 14,165 18,723 34,651 14,979 19,672
67 20,951 8,298 12,653 23,689 9,665 14,024 26,796 11,204 15,592 29,646 12,605 17,041 32,053 13,762 18,291
68 18,617 7,144 11,473 20,348 8,031 12,317 23,013 9,358 13,655 26,040 10,852 15,188 28,819 12,213 16,606
69 17,688 6,674 11,014 18,029 6,892 11,137 19,711 7,751 11,960 22,300 9,035 13,265 25,240 10,482 14,758
70 17,763 6,700 11,063 17,073 6,417 10,656 17,409 6,630 10,779 19,039 7,460 11,579 21,547 8,699 12,848
71 18,376 6,971 11,405 17,082 6,418 10,664 16,426 6,150 10,276 16,756 6,357 10,399 18,333 7,155 11,178
72 18,757 7,144 11,613 17,600 6,649 10,951 16,369 6,124 10,245 15,748 5,872 9,876 16,072 6,073 9,999
73 18,444 7,050 11,394 17,884 6,782 11,102 16,790 6,316 10,474 15,624 5,821 9,803 15,039 5,584 9,455
74 17,061 6,529 10,532 17,499 6,657 10,842 16,978 6,408 10,570 15,947 5,972 9,975 14,849 5,507 9,342
75 14,991 5,735 9,256 16,099 6,130 9,969 16,522 6,254 10,268 16,039 6,024 10,015 15,075 5,617 9,458
76 14,008 5,275 8,733 14,061 5,350 8,711 15,109 5,723 9,386 15,516 5,842 9,674 15,073 5,631 9,442
77 12,234 4,593 7,641 13,052 4,886 8,166 13,109 4,959 8,150 14,096 5,308 8,788 14,485 5,423 9,062
78 10,668 4,051 6,617 11,314 4,221 7,093 12,078 4,494 7,584 12,139 4,565 7,574 13,063 4,889 8,174
79 9,539 3,763 5,776 9,783 3,691 6,092 10,384 3,850 6,534 11,094 4,101 6,993 11,157 4,169 6,988
80+ 76,880 30,444 46,436 73,817 29,012 44,805 71,499 27,766 43,733 70,134 26,883 43,251 69,676 26,388 43,288
Total 10,738,653 5,179,372 5,559,281 11,002,631 5,313,524 5,689,107 11,274,218 5,451,494 5,822,724 11,553,188 5,593,172 5,960,016 11,839,420 5,738,490 6,100,930

77
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 357,822 180,985 176,837 364,820 184,555 180,265 371,803 188,118 183,685 378,858 191,719 187,139 386,072 195,401 190,671
1 346,648 175,141 171,507 353,777 178,778 174,999 360,893 182,412 178,481 368,001 186,043 181,958 375,189 189,716 185,473
2 337,499 170,447 167,052 344,775 174,162 170,613 351,965 177,831 174,134 359,147 181,500 177,647 366,324 185,168 181,156
3 328,860 166,008 162,852 336,196 169,746 166,450 343,510 173,481 170,029 350,741 177,172 173,569 357,967 180,864 177,103
4 320,409 161,670 158,739 327,884 165,474 162,410 335,246 169,226 166,020 342,590 172,976 169,614 349,852 176,684 173,168
5 311,924 157,318 154,606 319,640 161,241 158,399 327,134 165,055 162,079 334,518 168,819 165,699 341,885 172,581 169,304
6 302,015 150,469 151,546 311,293 156,960 154,333 319,023 160,890 158,133 326,535 164,714 161,821 333,937 168,486 165,451
7 300,902 149,853 151,049 301,481 150,166 151,315 310,768 156,658 154,110 318,511 160,595 157,916 326,037 164,426 161,611
8 300,054 149,390 150,664 300,429 149,585 150,844 301,029 149,909 151,120 310,323 156,402 153,921 318,078 160,344 157,734
9 299,349 149,006 150,343 299,635 149,155 150,480 300,027 149,360 150,667 300,645 149,693 150,952 309,944 156,186 153,758
10 298,749 148,684 150,065 298,979 148,804 150,175 299,281 148,961 150,320 299,688 149,173 150,515 300,320 149,513 150,807
11 311,605 155,087 156,518 298,418 148,507 149,911 298,662 148,634 150,028 298,976 148,797 150,179 299,395 149,016 150,379
12 309,412 153,957 155,455 311,281 154,916 156,365 298,120 148,350 149,770 298,375 148,482 149,893 298,700 148,651 150,049
13 304,102 151,208 152,894 309,086 153,784 155,302 310,964 154,748 156,216 297,828 148,195 149,633 298,094 148,333 149,761
14 295,565 146,763 148,802 303,753 151,018 152,735 308,743 153,597 155,146 310,631 154,567 156,064 297,521 148,027 149,494
15 284,267 140,857 143,410 295,178 146,546 148,632 303,367 150,802 152,565 308,364 153,384 154,980 310,263 154,359 155,904
16 271,302 134,072 137,230 283,841 140,613 143,228 294,748 146,299 148,449 302,939 150,555 152,384 307,942 153,140 154,802
17 258,325 127,295 131,030 270,848 133,806 137,042 283,379 140,342 143,037 294,282 146,025 148,257 302,474 150,281 152,193
18 247,225 121,543 125,682 257,850 127,014 130,836 270,363 133,519 136,844 282,885 140,048 142,837 293,784 145,727 148,057
19 239,228 117,470 121,758 246,730 121,246 125,484 257,348 126,712 130,636 269,850 133,210 136,640 282,363 139,732 142,631
20 233,641 114,690 118,951 238,711 117,156 121,555 246,211 120,931 125,280 256,820 126,391 130,429 269,311 132,881 136,430
21 228,430 112,166 116,264 233,100 114,360 118,740 238,173 116,827 121,346 245,670 120,600 125,070 256,271 126,054 130,217
22 222,839 109,421 113,418 227,875 111,826 116,049 232,549 114,022 118,527 237,624 116,492 121,132 245,119 120,263 124,856
23 218,051 106,954 111,097 222,280 109,082 113,198 227,319 111,489 115,830 231,996 113,687 118,309 237,074 116,159 120,915
24 214,080 104,717 109,363 217,494 106,621 110,873 221,727 108,751 112,976 226,768 111,159 115,609 231,449 113,360 118,089
25 210,726 102,681 108,045 213,528 104,392 109,136 216,947 106,299 110,648 221,185 108,431 112,754 226,228 110,841 115,387
26 207,731 100,760 106,971 210,178 102,364 107,814 212,986 104,078 108,908 216,411 105,988 110,423 220,653 108,123 112,530
27 204,809 98,973 105,836 207,184 100,448 106,736 209,638 102,056 107,582 212,453 103,773 108,680 215,884 105,686 110,198
28 201,794 97,389 104,405 204,262 98,664 105,598 206,644 100,142 106,502 209,106 101,754 107,352 211,928 103,475 108,453
29 198,497 96,005 102,492 201,245 97,080 104,165 203,721 98,359 105,362 206,111 99,842 106,269 208,581 101,457 107,124
30 194,879 94,690 100,189 197,948 95,696 102,252 200,703 96,775 103,928 203,187 98,059 105,128 205,586 99,545 106,041
31 191,085 93,363 97,722 194,329 94,379 99,950 197,404 95,389 102,015 200,167 96,474 103,693 202,659 97,761 104,898
32 187,026 91,788 95,238 190,536 93,050 97,486 193,785 94,071 99,714 196,867 95,086 101,781 199,637 96,176 103,461
33 182,382 89,723 92,659 186,477 91,475 95,002 189,991 92,741 97,250 193,247 93,766 99,481 196,335 94,787 101,548
34 177,018 87,010 90,008 181,837 89,412 92,425 185,934 91,166 94,768 189,453 92,436 97,017 192,715 93,467 99,248
35 170,963 83,732 87,231 176,479 86,704 89,775 181,297 89,105 92,192 185,398 90,862 94,536 188,922 92,136 96,786
36 165,041 80,497 84,544 170,433 83,432 87,001 175,946 86,401 89,545 180,764 88,803 91,961 184,867 90,561 94,306
37 158,751 77,113 81,638 164,515 80,202 84,313 169,903 83,134 86,769 175,413 86,101 89,312 180,232 88,503 91,729
38 150,716 72,768 77,948 158,225 76,822 81,403 163,984 79,907 84,077 169,369 82,836 86,533 174,877 85,801 89,076
39 140,470 67,225 73,245 150,192 72,482 77,710 157,689 76,527 81,162 163,442 79,608 83,834 168,824 82,535 86,289
40 128,829 60,937 67,892 139,952 66,947 73,005 149,651 72,191 77,460 157,134 76,227 80,907 162,882 79,305 83,577

78
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 116,425 54,206 62,219 128,325 60,673 67,652 139,415 66,664 72,751 149,090 71,893 77,197 156,560 75,921 80,639
42 104,966 48,009 56,957 115,944 53,959 61,985 127,805 60,403 67,402 138,863 66,375 72,488 148,513 71,589 76,924
43 95,974 43,279 52,695 104,512 47,780 56,732 115,452 53,708 61,744 127,275 60,129 67,146 138,300 66,081 72,219
44 90,462 40,611 49,851 95,544 43,065 52,479 104,053 47,548 56,505 114,955 53,454 61,501 126,738 59,851 66,887
45 87,575 39,487 48,088 90,044 40,402 49,642 95,112 42,848 52,264 103,592 47,315 56,277 114,456 53,198 61,258
46 85,776 38,982 46,794 87,157 39,276 47,881 89,624 40,191 49,433 94,677 42,629 52,048 103,127 47,079 56,048
47 83,673 38,266 45,407 85,348 38,763 46,585 86,731 39,060 47,671 89,194 39,974 49,220 94,233 42,405 51,828
48 81,125 37,260 43,865 83,226 38,035 45,191 84,902 38,534 46,368 86,287 38,833 47,454 88,747 39,748 48,999
49 77,594 35,643 41,951 80,655 37,015 43,640 82,753 37,789 44,964 84,428 38,290 46,138 85,815 38,593 47,222
50 73,473 33,637 39,836 77,100 35,384 41,716 80,150 36,750 43,400 82,244 37,524 44,720 83,918 38,026 45,892
51 69,183 31,560 37,623 72,959 33,367 39,592 76,569 35,105 41,464 79,607 36,466 43,141 81,696 37,239 44,457
52 65,646 29,878 35,768 68,658 31,284 37,374 72,413 33,081 39,332 76,005 34,809 41,196 79,030 36,164 42,866
53 63,486 28,802 34,684 65,114 29,599 35,515 68,109 30,997 37,112 71,844 32,783 39,061 75,416 34,500 40,916
54 63,139 28,527 34,612 62,944 28,519 34,425 64,566 29,313 35,253 67,545 30,703 36,842 71,257 32,476 38,781
55 63,991 28,785 35,206 62,575 28,235 34,340 62,390 28,231 34,159 64,006 29,022 34,984 66,968 30,403 36,565
56 65,511 29,335 36,176 63,393 28,476 34,917 61,998 27,936 34,062 61,823 27,937 33,886 63,434 28,726 34,708
57 66,420 29,617 36,803 64,861 29,001 35,860 62,772 28,157 34,615 61,401 27,628 33,773 61,236 27,635 33,601
58 65,667 29,178 36,489 65,709 29,254 36,455 64,177 28,651 35,526 62,120 27,822 34,298 60,772 27,306 33,466
59 62,538 27,706 34,832 64,901 28,788 36,113 64,954 28,869 36,085 63,449 28,279 35,170 61,426 27,467 33,959
60 57,699 25,492 32,207 61,736 27,298 34,438 64,080 28,370 35,710 64,143 28,456 35,687 62,669 27,882 34,787
61 52,273 23,018 29,255 56,883 25,079 31,804 60,874 26,862 34,012 63,198 27,923 35,275 63,272 28,014 35,258
62 47,355 20,768 26,587 51,460 22,608 28,852 56,009 24,638 31,371 59,951 26,396 33,555 62,252 27,446 34,806
63 43,157 18,849 24,308 46,546 20,363 26,183 50,591 22,173 28,418 55,075 24,170 30,905 58,964 25,902 33,062
64 40,116 17,455 22,661 42,348 18,447 23,901 45,683 19,934 25,749 49,665 21,712 27,953 54,079 23,674 30,405
65 37,900 16,434 21,466 39,290 17,049 22,241 41,486 18,023 23,463 44,765 19,482 25,283 48,678 21,226 27,452
66 35,981 15,560 20,421 37,044 16,017 21,027 38,413 16,621 21,792 40,570 17,576 22,994 43,788 19,005 24,783
67 33,781 14,558 19,223 35,087 15,128 19,959 36,133 15,577 20,556 37,479 16,170 21,309 39,595 17,105 22,490
68 31,167 13,338 17,829 32,856 14,115 18,741 34,137 14,673 19,464 35,166 15,114 20,052 36,486 15,695 20,791
69 27,942 11,802 16,140 30,228 12,894 17,334 31,876 13,651 18,225 33,130 14,196 18,934 34,139 14,628 19,511
70 24,396 10,096 14,300 27,015 11,372 15,643 29,235 12,430 16,805 30,840 13,165 17,675 32,064 13,697 18,367
71 20,754 8,348 12,406 23,505 9,694 13,811 26,038 10,924 15,114 28,187 11,946 16,241 29,746 12,658 17,088
72 17,590 6,839 10,751 19,920 7,983 11,937 22,568 9,275 13,293 25,009 10,457 14,552 27,084 11,441 15,643
73 15,354 5,778 9,576 16,811 6,511 10,300 19,044 7,604 11,440 21,584 8,839 12,745 23,929 9,971 13,958
74 14,300 5,285 9,015 14,606 5,472 9,134 15,997 6,170 9,827 18,130 7,210 10,920 20,556 8,386 12,170
75 14,044 5,183 8,861 13,531 4,978 8,553 13,827 5,157 8,670 15,151 5,818 9,333 17,177 6,803 10,374
76 14,174 5,254 8,920 13,212 4,851 8,361 12,737 4,662 8,075 13,021 4,833 8,188 14,274 5,456 8,818
77 14,079 5,230 8,849 13,248 4,884 8,364 12,356 4,512 7,844 11,918 4,340 7,578 12,190 4,502 7,688
78 13,431 4,999 8,432 13,063 4,825 8,238 12,299 4,509 7,790 11,478 4,169 7,309 11,077 4,012 7,065
79 12,014 4,469 7,545 12,360 4,573 7,787 12,029 4,418 7,611 11,333 4,131 7,202 10,583 3,823 6,760
80+ 69,390 26,054 43,336 69,973 26,067 43,906 70,832 26,194 44,638 71,308 26,183 45,125 71,123 25,935 45,188
Total 12,132,541 5,887,402 6,245,139 12,432,365 6,039,753 6,392,612 12,738,764 6,195,477 6,543,287 13,051,778 6,354,595 6,697,183 13,371,542 6,517,179 6,854,363

79
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Single
Both
age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Male Female
sexes
0 393,218 199,025 194,193 400,297 202,623 197,674 407,360 206,214 201,146 414,311 209,748 204,563 421,046 213,173 207,873
1 382,512 193,445 189,067 389,733 197,120 192,613 396,892 200,772 196,120 404,040 204,420 199,620 411,082 208,015 203,067
2 373,570 188,865 184,705 380,931 192,620 188,311 388,192 196,323 191,869 395,395 200,005 195,390 402,590 203,684 198,906
3 365,181 184,547 180,634 372,451 188,261 184,190 379,838 192,033 187,805 387,127 195,755 191,372 394,359 199,456 194,903
4 357,104 180,386 176,718 364,335 184,080 180,255 371,623 187,806 183,817 379,029 191,592 187,437 386,338 195,327 191,011
5 349,168 176,296 172,872 356,432 180,007 176,425 363,676 183,710 179,966 370,979 187,446 183,533 378,399 191,242 187,157
6 341,320 172,255 169,065 348,612 175,976 172,636 355,887 179,694 176,193 363,143 183,405 179,738 370,457 187,149 183,308
7 333,452 168,203 165,249 340,842 171,976 168,866 348,142 175,703 172,439 355,426 179,427 175,999 362,692 183,145 179,547
8 325,613 164,178 161,435 333,034 167,959 165,075 340,430 171,737 168,693 347,738 175,469 172,269 355,029 179,198 175,831
9 317,706 160,131 157,575 325,246 163,967 161,279 332,672 167,751 164,921 340,073 171,533 168,540 347,387 175,269 172,118
10 309,622 156,005 153,617 317,387 159,951 157,436 324,930 163,790 161,140 332,360 167,577 164,783 339,766 171,361 168,405
11 300,038 149,361 150,677 309,341 155,851 153,490 317,108 159,800 157,308 324,654 163,640 161,014 332,087 167,429 164,658
12 299,130 148,874 150,256 299,780 149,224 150,556 309,083 155,713 153,370 316,852 159,662 157,190 324,400 163,505 160,895
13 298,430 148,506 149,924 298,867 148,734 150,133 299,524 149,087 150,437 308,827 155,575 153,252 316,598 159,526 157,072
14 297,797 148,170 149,627 298,140 148,348 149,792 298,585 148,579 150,006 299,250 148,937 150,313 308,553 155,423 153,130
15 297,179 147,833 149,346 297,463 147,981 149,482 297,815 148,163 149,652 298,268 148,399 149,869 298,942 148,762 150,180
16 309,851 154,119 155,732 296,794 147,609 149,185 297,088 147,761 149,327 297,448 147,949 149,499 297,911 148,190 149,721
17 307,481 152,867 154,614 309,398 153,850 155,548 296,370 147,358 149,012 296,674 147,516 149,158 297,045 147,709 149,336
18 301,974 149,981 151,993 306,985 152,569 154,416 308,910 153,557 155,353 295,914 147,082 148,832 296,229 147,246 148,983
19 293,255 145,406 147,849 301,442 149,657 151,785 306,457 152,246 154,211 308,391 153,239 155,152 295,429 146,785 148,644
20 281,812 139,395 142,417 292,695 145,062 147,633 300,880 149,310 151,570 305,899 151,901 153,998 307,842 152,900 154,942
21 268,749 132,535 136,214 281,237 139,039 142,198 292,111 144,700 147,411 300,294 148,946 151,348 305,316 151,540 153,776
22 255,710 125,710 130,000 268,173 132,180 135,993 280,648 138,675 141,973 291,513 144,330 147,183 299,693 148,574 151,119
23 244,565 119,927 124,638 255,144 125,365 129,779 267,594 131,826 135,768 280,055 138,312 141,743 290,911 143,961 146,950
24 236,528 115,832 120,696 244,015 119,597 124,418 254,583 125,028 129,555 267,018 131,479 135,539 279,467 137,957 141,510
25 230,911 113,043 117,868 235,991 115,515 120,476 243,473 119,277 124,196 254,031 124,702 129,329 266,453 131,144 135,309
26 225,697 110,533 115,164 230,381 112,736 117,645 235,462 115,208 120,254 242,940 118,967 123,973 253,488 124,385 129,103
27 220,128 107,822 112,306 225,173 110,232 114,941 229,858 112,436 117,422 234,940 114,908 120,032 242,415 118,665 123,750
28 215,364 105,389 109,975 219,609 107,525 112,084 224,654 109,936 114,718 229,342 112,141 117,201 234,425 114,614 119,811
29 211,409 103,179 108,230 214,848 105,095 109,753 219,095 107,232 111,863 224,141 109,643 114,498 228,830 111,849 116,981
30 208,062 101,162 106,900 210,894 102,886 108,008 214,336 104,803 109,533 218,586 106,941 111,645 223,632 109,352 114,280
31 205,064 99,250 105,814 207,545 100,869 106,676 210,382 102,594 107,788 213,828 104,512 109,316 218,080 106,651 111,429
32 202,135 97,466 104,669 204,546 98,956 105,590 207,033 100,577 106,456 209,874 102,304 107,570 213,324 104,223 109,101
33 199,112 95,879 103,233 201,615 97,172 104,443 204,031 98,665 105,366 206,523 100,287 106,236 209,370 102,016 107,354
34 195,808 94,490 101,318 198,589 95,586 103,003 201,098 96,881 104,217 203,520 98,376 105,144 206,018 100,000 106,018
35 192,188 93,169 99,019 195,286 94,196 101,090 198,071 95,295 102,776 200,586 96,592 103,994 203,014 98,089 104,925
36 188,395 91,838 96,557 191,664 92,874 98,790 194,766 93,904 100,862 197,557 95,006 102,551 200,077 96,307 103,770
37 184,337 90,262 94,075 187,867 91,540 96,327 191,139 92,580 98,559 194,245 93,613 100,632 197,041 94,718 102,323
38 179,694 88,200 91,494 183,798 89,959 93,839 187,331 91,240 96,091 190,607 92,283 98,324 193,717 93,320 100,397
39 174,326 85,495 88,831 179,140 87,893 91,247 183,245 89,653 93,592 186,780 90,936 95,844 190,060 91,982 98,078
40 168,258 82,226 86,032 173,754 85,182 88,572 178,565 87,578 90,987 182,670 89,339 93,331 186,207 90,624 95,583

80
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 162,300 78,992 83,308 167,668 81,909 85,759 173,158 84,861 88,297 177,966 87,254 90,712 182,071 89,016 93,055
42 155,967 75,607 80,360 161,697 78,672 83,025 167,058 81,584 85,474 172,541 84,531 88,010 177,345 86,922 90,423
43 147,922 71,279 76,643 155,358 75,285 80,073 161,078 78,344 82,734 166,433 81,251 85,182 171,909 84,193 87,716
44 137,728 65,782 71,946 147,322 70,962 76,360 154,740 74,958 79,782 160,451 78,010 82,441 165,797 80,911 84,886
45 126,198 59,570 66,628 137,151 65,479 71,672 146,717 70,641 76,076 154,117 74,625 79,492 159,817 77,671 82,146
46 113,952 52,937 61,015 125,652 59,284 66,368 136,568 65,170 71,398 146,105 70,314 75,791 153,487 74,286 79,201
47 102,651 46,835 55,816 113,435 52,668 60,767 125,091 58,987 66,104 135,970 64,850 71,120 145,476 69,976 75,500
48 93,768 42,168 51,600 102,153 46,578 55,575 112,893 52,384 60,509 124,503 58,675 65,828 135,342 64,513 70,829
49 88,270 39,505 48,765 93,272 41,915 51,357 101,621 46,303 55,318 112,314 52,079 60,235 123,875 58,340 65,535
50 85,305 38,331 46,974 87,754 39,241 48,513 92,735 41,639 51,096 101,045 46,003 55,042 111,687 51,747 59,940
51 83,367 37,741 45,626 84,754 38,048 46,706 87,197 38,955 48,242 92,156 41,340 50,816 100,423 45,678 54,745
52 81,113 36,934 44,179 82,782 37,437 45,345 84,168 37,745 46,423 86,604 38,650 47,954 91,538 41,021 50,517
53 78,426 35,847 42,579 80,502 36,615 43,887 82,168 37,118 45,050 83,555 37,428 46,127 85,982 38,329 47,653
54 74,808 34,182 40,626 77,803 35,521 42,282 79,873 36,286 43,587 81,536 36,789 44,747 82,922 37,100 45,822
55 70,657 32,163 38,494 74,187 33,857 40,330 77,167 35,187 41,980 79,230 35,950 43,280 80,890 36,452 44,438
56 66,377 30,096 36,281 70,042 31,843 38,199 73,551 33,524 40,027 76,516 34,846 41,670 78,572 35,606 42,966
57 62,840 28,418 34,422 65,764 29,779 35,985 69,405 31,511 37,894 72,892 33,179 39,713 75,840 34,492 41,348
58 60,617 27,316 33,301 62,214 28,095 34,119 65,119 29,444 35,675 68,733 31,161 37,572 72,197 32,816 39,381
59 60,102 26,961 33,141 59,958 26,975 32,983 61,546 27,749 33,797 64,430 29,086 35,344 68,017 30,787 37,230
60 60,679 27,085 33,594 59,381 26,591 32,790 59,248 26,609 32,639 60,828 27,376 33,452 63,689 28,700 34,989
61 61,827 27,453 34,374 59,875 26,674 33,201 58,604 26,192 32,412 58,484 26,214 32,270 60,055 26,975 33,080
62 62,336 27,541 34,795 60,924 26,994 33,930 59,012 26,233 32,779 57,771 25,763 32,008 57,663 25,791 31,872
63 61,239 26,937 34,302 61,334 27,036 34,298 59,958 26,504 33,454 58,088 25,762 32,326 56,878 25,306 31,572
64 57,910 25,376 32,534 60,157 26,396 33,761 60,264 26,498 33,766 58,925 25,983 32,942 57,100 25,261 31,839
65 53,016 23,149 29,867 56,785 24,819 31,966 59,003 25,822 33,181 59,123 25,928 33,195 57,823 25,430 32,393
66 47,626 20,711 26,915 51,884 22,593 29,291 55,587 24,228 31,359 57,774 25,214 32,560 57,906 25,323 32,583
67 42,745 18,500 24,245 46,506 20,166 26,340 50,678 22,004 28,674 54,311 23,602 30,709 56,463 24,568 31,895
68 38,556 16,607 21,949 41,637 17,967 23,670 45,314 19,590 25,724 49,394 21,381 28,013 52,952 22,940 30,012
69 35,431 15,195 20,236 37,454 16,083 21,371 40,460 17,404 23,056 44,048 18,982 25,066 48,031 20,724 27,307
70 33,051 14,118 18,933 34,314 14,670 19,644 36,287 15,532 20,755 39,214 16,814 22,400 42,708 18,344 24,364
71 30,937 13,174 17,763 31,902 13,584 18,318 33,135 14,120 19,015 35,055 14,955 20,100 37,898 16,194 21,704
72 28,592 12,128 16,464 29,749 12,626 17,123 30,692 13,025 17,667 31,893 13,543 18,350 33,755 14,350 19,405
73 25,924 10,914 15,010 27,380 11,573 15,807 28,502 12,054 16,448 29,420 12,439 16,981 30,586 12,940 17,646
74 22,797 9,464 13,333 24,710 10,364 14,346 26,111 10,995 15,116 27,196 11,457 15,739 28,087 11,828 16,259
75 19,483 7,916 11,567 21,619 8,938 12,681 23,446 9,792 13,654 24,789 10,394 14,395 25,834 10,835 14,999
76 16,189 6,383 9,806 18,373 7,431 10,942 20,398 8,395 12,003 22,135 9,201 12,934 23,417 9,771 13,646
77 13,368 5,085 8,283 15,171 5,952 9,219 17,227 6,933 10,294 19,138 7,836 11,302 20,780 8,593 12,187
78 11,336 4,165 7,171 12,440 4,707 7,733 14,126 5,513 8,613 16,051 6,425 9,626 17,843 7,265 10,578
79 10,220 3,682 6,538 10,466 3,824 6,642 11,494 4,324 7,170 13,061 5,068 7,993 14,851 5,910 8,941
80+ 70,320 25,461 44,859 69,368 24,947 44,421 68,844 24,656 44,188 69,400 24,881 44,519 71,375 25,766 45,609
Total 13,697,803 6,682,963 7,014,840 14,030,371 6,851,920 7,178,451 14,369,180 7,024,008 7,345,172 14,714,043 7,199,133 7,514,910 15,064,600 7,377,135 7,687,465

81
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 427,078 216,229 210,849 432,541 218,996 213,545 437,781 221,651 216,130 442,733 224,160 218,573 447,333 226,491 220,842
1 417,873 211,474 206,399 423,968 214,568 209,400 429,502 217,379 212,123 434,817 220,078 214,739 439,849 222,635 217,214
2 409,660 207,296 202,364 416,481 210,775 205,706 422,612 213,890 208,722 428,183 216,724 211,459 433,539 219,448 214,091
3 401,570 203,146 198,424 408,659 206,770 201,889 415,501 210,261 205,240 421,654 213,391 208,263 427,252 216,239 211,013
4 393,582 199,036 194,546 400,806 202,733 198,073 407,909 206,366 201,543 414,766 209,866 204,900 420,937 213,006 207,931
5 385,717 194,982 190,735 392,970 198,696 194,274 400,205 202,400 197,805 407,318 206,039 201,279 414,187 209,547 204,640
6 377,884 190,948 186,936 385,209 194,693 190,516 392,470 198,412 194,058 399,713 202,120 197,593 406,836 205,765 201,071
7 370,011 186,892 183,119 377,444 190,694 186,750 384,775 194,443 190,332 392,043 198,165 193,878 399,293 201,878 197,415
8 362,299 182,918 179,381 369,623 186,667 182,956 377,060 190,472 186,588 384,396 194,223 190,173 391,669 197,950 193,719
9 354,681 178,999 175,682 361,954 182,721 179,233 369,281 186,472 182,809 376,722 190,279 186,443 384,063 194,033 190,030
10 347,081 175,098 171,983 354,378 178,830 175,548 361,653 182,553 179,100 368,983 186,306 182,677 376,427 190,115 186,312
11 339,494 171,214 168,280 346,811 174,952 171,859 354,109 178,684 175,425 361,387 182,408 178,979 368,719 186,162 182,557
12 331,834 167,294 164,540 339,242 171,079 168,163 346,561 174,817 171,744 353,861 178,551 175,310 361,140 182,276 178,864
13 324,147 163,368 160,779 331,581 167,158 164,423 338,991 170,943 168,048 346,310 174,682 171,628 353,612 178,416 175,196
14 316,323 159,373 156,950 323,873 163,216 160,657 331,307 167,005 164,302 338,717 170,790 167,927 346,038 174,529 171,509
15 308,241 155,244 152,997 316,011 159,193 156,818 323,559 163,034 160,525 330,994 166,823 164,171 338,404 170,609 167,795
16 298,591 148,556 150,035 307,886 155,033 152,853 315,654 158,980 156,674 323,201 162,821 160,380 330,635 166,609 164,026
17 297,514 147,954 149,560 298,201 148,322 149,879 307,491 154,793 152,698 315,256 158,739 156,517 322,803 162,577 160,226
18 296,607 147,443 149,164 297,084 147,692 149,392 297,778 148,064 149,714 307,061 154,528 152,533 314,825 158,472 156,353
19 295,752 146,954 148,798 296,138 147,155 148,983 296,623 147,407 149,216 297,324 147,783 149,541 306,601 154,240 152,361
20 294,913 146,465 148,448 295,244 146,638 148,606 295,639 146,844 148,795 296,133 147,101 149,032 296,842 147,482 149,360
21 307,267 152,542 154,725 294,371 146,127 148,244 294,712 146,305 148,407 295,116 146,516 148,600 295,619 146,778 148,841
22 304,716 151,167 153,549 306,674 152,172 154,502 293,814 145,779 148,035 294,164 145,962 148,202 294,578 146,178 148,400
23 299,086 148,200 150,886 304,110 150,792 153,318 306,075 151,802 154,273 293,250 145,430 147,820 293,611 145,619 147,992
24 290,311 143,597 146,714 298,480 147,832 150,648 303,505 150,424 153,081 305,477 151,437 154,040 292,689 145,086 147,603
25 278,886 137,611 141,275 289,718 143,242 146,476 297,881 147,473 150,408 302,908 150,064 152,844 304,887 151,081 153,806
26 265,894 130,817 135,077 278,311 137,273 141,038 289,132 142,897 146,235 297,289 147,123 150,166 302,318 149,714 152,604
27 252,950 124,075 128,875 265,339 130,495 134,844 277,741 136,942 140,799 288,551 142,557 145,994 296,704 146,780 149,924
28 241,893 118,366 123,527 252,415 123,767 128,648 264,788 130,177 134,611 277,175 136,614 140,561 287,974 142,222 145,752
29 233,912 114,321 119,591 241,373 118,068 123,305 251,883 123,461 128,422 264,240 129,861 134,379 276,612 136,287 140,325
30 228,320 111,557 116,763 233,400 114,027 119,373 240,855 117,770 123,085 251,352 123,154 128,198 263,694 129,544 134,150
31 223,125 109,061 114,064 227,812 111,265 116,547 232,890 113,733 119,157 240,338 117,471 122,867 250,823 122,847 127,976
32 217,575 106,361 111,214 222,617 108,769 113,848 227,304 110,972 116,332 232,380 113,439 118,941 239,822 117,172 122,650
33 212,820 103,934 108,886 217,071 106,071 111,000 222,111 108,477 113,634 226,796 110,679 116,117 231,872 113,144 118,728
34 208,866 101,728 107,138 212,318 103,646 108,672 216,568 105,781 110,787 221,606 108,186 113,420 226,290 110,387 115,903
35 205,514 99,713 105,801 208,365 101,442 106,923 211,817 103,359 108,458 216,066 105,493 110,573 221,102 107,896 113,206
36 202,507 97,804 104,703 205,010 99,427 105,583 207,863 101,155 106,708 211,316 103,072 108,244 215,565 105,205 110,360
37 199,564 96,019 103,545 201,997 97,516 104,481 204,503 99,140 105,363 207,358 100,868 106,490 210,812 102,784 108,028
38 196,515 94,426 102,089 199,040 95,728 103,312 201,476 97,225 104,251 203,985 98,849 105,136 206,842 100,576 106,266
39 193,171 93,020 100,151 195,970 94,128 101,842 198,498 95,430 103,068 200,938 96,927 104,011 203,450 98,551 104,899
40 189,487 91,672 97,815 192,599 92,711 99,888 195,401 93,820 101,581 197,932 95,123 102,809 200,374 96,620 103,754

82
 Table 31: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 185,606 90,302 95,304 188,887 91,351 97,536 191,999 92,391 99,608 194,803 93,501 101,302 197,337 94,804 102,533
42 181,446 88,682 92,764 184,981 89,968 95,013 188,261 91,018 97,243 191,375 92,060 99,315 194,181 93,171 101,010
43 176,705 86,580 90,125 180,802 88,337 92,465 184,335 89,624 94,711 187,615 90,675 96,940 190,730 91,718 99,012
44 171,262 83,846 87,416 176,052 86,228 89,824 180,144 87,984 92,160 183,675 89,270 94,405 186,955 90,323 96,632
45 165,153 80,565 84,588 170,607 83,492 87,115 175,388 85,869 89,519 179,476 87,622 91,854 183,006 88,909 94,097
46 159,173 77,323 81,850 164,496 80,208 84,288 169,939 83,127 86,812 174,712 85,499 89,213 178,795 87,251 91,544
47 152,835 73,933 78,902 158,507 76,960 81,547 163,818 79,837 83,981 169,248 82,747 86,501 174,012 85,114 88,898
48 144,814 69,616 75,198 152,148 73,558 78,590 157,804 76,574 81,230 163,102 79,442 83,660 168,518 82,343 86,175
49 134,667 64,148 70,519 144,101 69,227 74,874 151,408 73,152 78,256 157,047 76,156 80,891 162,330 79,013 83,317
50 123,191 57,972 65,219 133,932 63,748 70,184 143,323 68,800 74,523 150,601 72,705 77,896 156,221 75,696 80,525
51 111,006 51,385 59,621 122,448 57,570 64,878 133,132 63,310 69,822 142,477 68,332 74,145 149,723 72,216 77,507
52 99,757 45,328 54,429 110,277 50,995 59,282 121,651 57,137 64,514 132,275 62,839 69,436 141,570 67,829 73,741
53 90,889 40,684 50,205 99,056 44,959 54,097 109,510 50,584 58,926 120,813 56,681 64,132 131,374 62,342 69,032
54 85,339 37,997 47,342 90,217 40,334 49,883 98,331 44,576 53,755 108,715 50,157 58,558 119,945 56,207 63,738
55 82,274 36,764 45,510 84,680 37,656 47,024 89,528 39,976 49,552 97,588 44,184 53,404 107,901 49,720 58,181
56 80,227 36,107 44,120 81,607 36,419 45,188 84,003 37,306 46,697 88,820 39,607 49,213 96,824 43,780 53,044
57 77,886 35,248 42,638 79,536 35,747 43,789 80,913 36,059 44,854 83,297 36,941 46,356 88,083 39,223 48,860
58 75,125 34,118 41,007 77,161 34,869 42,292 78,804 35,366 43,438 80,179 35,678 44,501 82,551 36,554 45,997
59 71,452 32,425 39,027 74,359 33,715 40,644 76,384 34,461 41,923 78,020 34,956 43,064 79,391 35,268 44,123
60 67,243 30,383 36,860 70,648 32,002 38,646 73,532 33,279 40,253 75,543 34,019 41,524 77,172 34,512 42,660
61 62,887 28,283 34,604 66,405 29,944 36,461 69,777 31,544 38,233 72,635 32,807 39,828 74,633 33,540 41,093
62 59,220 26,542 32,678 62,023 27,832 34,191 65,502 29,471 36,031 68,837 31,050 37,787 71,668 32,297 39,371
63 56,781 25,336 31,445 58,323 26,078 32,245 61,093 27,349 33,744 64,529 28,963 35,566 67,826 30,519 37,307
64 55,920 24,817 31,103 55,834 24,850 30,984 57,360 25,581 31,779 60,094 26,832 33,262 63,485 28,419 35,066
65 56,043 24,726 31,317 54,894 24,295 30,599 54,819 24,331 30,488 56,328 25,051 31,277 59,023 26,280 32,743
66 56,644 24,840 31,804 54,910 24,156 30,754 53,795 23,739 30,056 53,732 23,778 29,954 55,221 24,485 30,736
67 56,604 24,679 31,925 55,382 24,212 31,170 53,698 23,550 30,148 52,619 23,147 29,472 52,568 23,189 29,379
68 55,063 23,884 31,179 55,213 23,995 31,218 54,034 23,546 30,488 52,403 22,906 29,497 51,361 22,518 28,843
69 51,503 22,240 29,263 53,571 23,159 30,412 53,731 23,271 30,460 52,596 22,840 29,756 51,021 22,224 28,797
70 46,583 20,031 26,552 49,964 21,501 28,463 51,984 22,394 29,590 52,154 22,508 29,646 51,067 22,096 28,971
71 41,287 17,672 23,615 45,047 19,302 25,745 48,332 20,724 27,608 50,301 21,589 28,712 50,480 21,704 28,776
72 36,505 15,543 20,962 39,783 16,966 22,817 43,420 18,536 24,884 46,602 19,905 26,697 48,517 20,742 27,775
73 32,384 13,714 18,670 35,035 14,859 20,176 38,194 16,223 21,971 41,702 17,729 23,973 44,774 19,044 25,730
74 29,211 12,308 16,903 30,941 13,048 17,893 33,487 14,141 19,346 36,521 15,444 21,077 39,891 16,882 23,009
75 26,692 11,190 15,502 27,773 11,647 16,126 29,430 12,351 17,079 31,865 13,390 18,475 34,767 14,629 20,138
76 24,416 10,190 14,226 25,238 10,527 14,711 26,272 10,961 15,311 27,853 11,627 16,226 30,172 12,609 17,563
77 21,995 9,129 12,866 22,945 9,523 13,422 23,730 9,841 13,889 24,715 10,251 14,464 26,215 10,878 15,337
78 19,385 7,971 11,414 20,529 8,470 12,059 21,427 8,840 12,587 22,172 9,139 13,033 23,105 9,522 13,583
79 16,518 6,686 9,832 17,955 7,338 10,617 19,026 7,801 11,225 19,870 8,144 11,726 20,573 8,423 12,150
80+ 74,756 27,298 47,458 79,232 29,321 49,911 84,440 31,651 52,789 89,947 34,070 55,877 95,510 36,459 59,051
Total 15,419,678 7,557,359 7,862,319 15,778,593 7,739,445 8,039,148 16,141,036 7,923,267 8,217,769 16,506,665 8,108,643 8,398,022 16,875,138 8,295,402 8,579,736

83
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario

Single 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 320,087 161,839 158,248 325,392 164,516 160,876 330,348 167,017 163,331 335,078 169,402 165,676 339,694 171,731 167,963
1 308,183 153,759 154,424 315,378 159,214 156,164 320,869 161,989 158,880 326,024 164,595 161,429 330,964 167,092 163,872
2 305,631 152,425 153,206 306,005 152,618 153,387 313,274 158,094 155,180 318,855 160,912 157,943 324,108 163,563 160,545
3 303,902 151,511 152,391 304,106 151,610 152,496 304,561 151,841 152,720 311,878 157,330 154,548 317,521 160,176 157,345
4 302,602 150,815 151,787 302,745 150,884 151,861 303,009 151,011 151,998 303,523 151,270 152,253 310,877 156,769 154,108
5 301,564 150,252 151,312 301,673 150,304 151,369 301,864 150,396 151,468 302,176 150,546 151,630 302,737 150,828 151,909
6 314,190 156,517 157,673 300,788 149,819 150,969 300,936 149,890 151,046 301,167 150,000 151,167 301,517 150,169 151,348
7 311,698 155,206 156,492 313,486 156,121 157,365 300,148 149,456 150,692 300,330 149,543 150,787 300,593 149,669 150,924
8 306,148 152,311 153,837 311,083 154,860 156,223 312,897 155,787 157,110 299,613 149,150 150,463 299,823 149,251 150,572
9 297,449 147,770 149,679 305,615 152,014 153,601 310,566 154,570 155,996 312,403 155,508 156,895 299,164 148,894 150,270
10 286,084 141,831 144,253 296,996 147,522 149,474 305,170 151,769 153,401 310,136 154,332 155,804 311,991 155,278 156,713
11 273,137 135,070 138,067 285,696 141,624 144,072 296,611 147,315 149,296 304,793 151,565 153,228 309,771 154,133 155,638
12 260,238 128,356 131,882 272,790 134,888 137,902 285,348 141,441 143,907 296,266 147,132 149,134 304,456 151,384 153,072
13 249,255 122,692 126,563 259,906 128,181 131,725 272,456 134,711 137,745 285,014 141,262 143,752 295,935 146,954 148,981
14 241,404 118,725 122,679 248,913 122,509 126,404 259,563 127,996 131,567 272,111 134,523 137,588 284,669 141,072 143,597
15 235,975 116,060 119,915 241,032 118,521 122,511 248,543 122,304 126,239 259,191 127,789 131,402 271,737 134,311 137,426
16 230,910 113,642 117,268 235,566 115,829 119,737 240,628 118,291 122,337 248,140 122,073 126,067 258,785 127,554 131,231
17 225,439 110,986 114,453 230,467 113,388 117,079 235,127 115,575 119,552 240,194 118,039 122,155 247,707 121,819 125,888
18 220,754 108,590 112,164 224,967 110,710 114,257 229,998 113,112 116,886 234,663 115,301 119,362 239,734 117,765 121,969
19 216,863 106,399 110,464 220,253 108,292 111,961 224,471 110,413 114,058 229,505 112,816 116,689 234,175 115,005 119,170
20 213,562 104,382 109,180 216,331 106,079 110,252 219,727 107,974 111,753 223,950 110,096 113,854 228,988 112,499 116,489
21 210,592 102,453 108,139 213,003 104,042 108,961 215,780 105,742 110,038 219,182 107,638 111,544 223,411 109,762 113,649
22 207,676 100,645 107,031 210,014 102,103 107,911 212,433 103,695 108,738 215,218 105,397 109,821 218,628 107,296 111,332
23 204,657 99,037 105,620 207,088 100,292 106,796 209,434 101,754 107,680 211,863 103,348 108,515 214,656 105,053 109,603
24 201,353 97,636 103,717 204,067 98,688 105,379 206,506 99,947 106,559 208,862 101,411 107,451 211,300 103,009 108,291
25 197,727 96,311 101,416 200,765 97,293 103,472 203,487 98,350 105,137 205,937 99,612 106,325 208,303 101,080 107,223
26 193,927 94,981 98,946 197,143 95,974 101,169 200,189 96,960 103,229 202,921 98,022 104,899 205,380 99,288 106,092
27 189,860 93,404 96,456 193,346 94,648 98,698 196,570 95,645 100,925 199,624 96,637 102,987 202,365 97,702 104,663
28 185,198 91,330 93,868 189,282 93,073 96,209 192,775 94,321 98,454 196,006 95,323 100,683 199,068 96,319 102,749
29 179,803 88,597 91,206 184,624 91,003 93,621 188,712 92,747 95,965 192,212 93,998 98,214 195,451 95,005 100,446
30 173,703 85,285 88,418 179,236 88,273 90,963 184,059 90,678 93,381 188,151 92,424 95,727 191,657 93,679 97,978
31 167,736 82,016 85,720 173,145 84,968 88,177 178,677 87,953 90,724 183,501 90,357 93,144 187,597 92,105 95,492
32 161,397 78,595 82,802 167,188 81,705 85,483 172,595 84,654 87,941 178,125 87,635 90,490 182,950 90,038 92,912
33 153,288 74,196 79,092 160,859 78,292 82,567 166,646 81,398 85,248 172,051 84,342 87,709 177,580 87,320 90,260
34 142,940 68,579 74,361 152,768 73,906 78,862 160,327 77,993 82,334 166,111 81,094 85,017 171,516 84,035 87,481
35 131,183 62,205 68,978 142,446 68,306 74,140 152,255 73,618 78,637 159,804 77,697 82,107 165,585 80,793 84,792
36 118,651 55,379 63,272 130,721 61,953 68,768 141,958 68,035 73,923 151,748 73,334 78,414 159,288 77,404 81,884
37 107,077 49,094 57,983 118,223 55,149 63,074 130,261 61,702 68,559 141,474 67,766 73,708 151,245 73,051 78,194
38 98,008 44,304 53,704 106,676 48,884 57,792 117,792 54,918 62,874 129,800 61,450 68,350 140,987 67,497 73,490
39 92,477 41,618 50,859 97,624 44,107 53,517 106,270 48,671 57,599 117,355 54,685 62,670 129,332 61,196 68,136
40 89,615 40,510 49,105 92,094 41,424 50,670 97,231 43,906 53,325 105,853 48,455 57,398 116,907 54,448 62,459

84
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 87,855 40,035 47,820 89,221 40,312 48,909 91,700 41,226 50,474 96,826 43,701 53,125 105,424 48,234 57,190
42 85,779 39,344 46,435 87,448 39,829 47,619 88,819 40,109 48,710 91,298 41,023 50,275 96,412 43,492 52,920
43 83,255 38,361 44,894 85,364 39,132 46,232 87,036 39,620 47,416 88,411 39,904 48,507 90,890 40,818 50,072
44 79,738 36,758 42,980 82,838 38,147 44,691 84,946 38,919 46,027 86,621 39,409 47,212 88,001 39,696 48,305
45 75,638 34,766 40,872 79,327 36,546 42,781 82,421 37,931 44,490 84,530 38,704 45,826 86,207 39,197 47,010
46 71,383 32,709 38,674 75,235 34,557 40,678 78,915 36,331 42,584 82,003 37,714 44,289 84,112 38,487 45,625
47 67,913 31,064 36,849 70,986 32,502 38,484 74,827 34,344 40,483 78,497 36,112 42,385 81,579 37,491 44,088
48 65,865 30,046 35,819 67,513 30,855 36,658 70,577 32,288 38,289 74,406 34,123 40,283 78,065 35,884 42,181
49 65,690 29,860 35,830 65,445 29,827 35,618 67,092 30,634 36,458 70,146 32,062 38,084 73,962 33,888 40,074
50 66,752 30,222 36,530 65,233 29,620 35,613 64,999 29,592 35,407 66,643 30,398 36,245 69,687 31,819 37,868
51 68,506 30,888 37,618 66,245 29,957 36,288 64,746 29,365 35,381 64,523 29,342 35,181 66,165 30,145 36,020
52 69,627 31,273 38,354 67,944 30,594 37,350 65,711 29,678 36,033 64,234 29,096 35,138 64,022 29,077 34,945
53 69,027 30,905 38,122 69,018 30,956 38,062 67,360 30,289 37,071 65,156 29,387 35,769 63,701 28,815 34,886
54 65,954 29,455 36,499 68,390 30,575 37,815 68,393 30,631 37,762 66,760 29,977 36,783 64,587 29,088 35,499
55 61,100 27,229 33,871 65,318 29,127 36,191 67,743 30,240 37,503 67,756 30,300 37,456 66,150 29,659 36,491
56 55,632 24,727 30,905 60,482 26,911 33,571 64,669 28,793 35,876 67,082 29,898 37,184 67,108 29,964 37,144
57 50,694 22,460 28,234 55,035 24,421 30,614 59,845 26,583 33,262 64,000 28,448 35,552 66,400 29,546 36,854
58 46,508 20,539 25,969 50,109 22,162 27,947 54,410 24,102 30,308 59,178 26,241 32,937 63,300 28,088 35,212
59 43,551 19,178 24,373 45,924 20,242 25,682 49,490 21,846 27,644 53,750 23,764 29,986 58,472 25,879 32,593
60 41,480 18,219 23,261 42,951 18,874 24,077 45,302 19,926 25,376 48,830 21,509 27,321 53,045 23,403 29,642
61 39,728 17,416 22,312 40,851 17,901 22,950 42,311 18,550 23,761 44,637 19,588 25,049 48,125 21,150 26,975
62 37,663 16,465 21,198 39,068 17,084 21,984 40,182 17,564 22,618 41,628 18,205 23,423 43,929 19,229 24,700
63 35,123 15,259 19,864 36,976 16,122 20,854 38,366 16,732 21,634 39,472 17,207 22,265 40,903 17,840 23,063
64 31,864 13,672 18,192 34,423 14,912 19,511 36,249 15,760 20,489 37,622 16,361 21,261 38,718 16,831 21,887
65 28,186 11,860 16,326 31,168 13,334 17,834 33,681 14,548 19,133 35,479 15,380 20,099 36,834 15,971 20,863
66 24,328 9,959 14,369 27,512 11,540 15,972 30,432 12,978 17,454 32,896 14,165 18,731 34,663 14,979 19,684
67 20,952 8,298 12,654 23,691 9,665 14,026 26,800 11,204 15,596 29,654 12,605 17,049 32,065 13,762 18,303
68 18,618 7,144 11,474 20,350 8,031 12,319 23,017 9,358 13,659 26,047 10,852 15,195 28,830 12,213 16,617
69 17,688 6,674 11,014 18,031 6,892 11,139 19,715 7,751 11,964 22,307 9,035 13,272 25,251 10,482 14,769
70 17,764 6,700 11,064 17,075 6,417 10,658 17,412 6,630 10,782 19,046 7,460 11,586 21,558 8,699 12,859
71 18,376 6,971 11,405 17,084 6,418 10,666 16,430 6,150 10,280 16,762 6,357 10,405 18,342 7,155 11,187
72 18,758 7,144 11,614 17,602 6,649 10,953 16,373 6,124 10,249 15,754 5,872 9,882 16,081 6,073 10,008
73 18,445 7,050 11,395 17,887 6,782 11,105 16,794 6,316 10,478 15,631 5,821 9,810 15,049 5,584 9,465
74 17,062 6,529 10,533 17,501 6,657 10,844 16,982 6,408 10,574 15,955 5,972 9,983 14,859 5,507 9,352
75 14,991 5,735 9,256 16,101 6,130 9,971 16,526 6,254 10,272 16,047 6,024 10,023 15,086 5,617 9,469
76 14,009 5,275 8,734 14,063 5,350 8,713 15,114 5,723 9,391 15,524 5,842 9,682 15,084 5,631 9,453
77 12,235 4,593 7,642 13,054 4,886 8,168 13,113 4,959 8,154 14,104 5,308 8,796 14,497 5,423 9,074
78 10,668 4,051 6,617 11,316 4,221 7,095 12,083 4,494 7,589 12,146 4,565 7,581 13,074 4,889 8,185
79 9,540 3,763 5,777 9,785 3,691 6,094 10,388 3,850 6,538 11,100 4,101 6,999 11,167 4,169 6,998
80+ 76,884 30,444 46,440 73,831 29,012 44,819 71,525 27,766 43,759 70,177 26,883 43,294 69,739 26,388 43,351
Total 10,736,772 5,178,353 5,558,419 10,996,895 5,310,426 5,686,469 11,262,565 5,445,205 5,817,360 11,533,446 5,582,524 5,950,922 11,809,295 5,722,258 6,087,037

85
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 344,124 173,977 170,147 348,415 176,155 172,260 352,583 178,270 174,313 356,709 180,368 176,341 360,858 182,484 178,374
1 335,782 169,537 166,245 340,375 171,855 168,520 344,836 174,109 170,727 349,166 176,304 172,862 353,422 178,484 174,938
2 329,141 166,109 163,032 334,042 168,589 165,453 338,722 170,945 167,777 343,266 173,239 170,027 347,661 175,475 172,186
3 322,833 162,858 159,975 327,919 165,426 162,493 332,877 167,930 164,947 337,611 170,312 167,299 342,197 172,632 169,565
4 316,561 159,636 156,925 321,911 162,334 159,577 327,038 164,919 162,119 332,034 167,441 164,593 336,798 169,842 166,956
5 310,117 156,334 153,783 315,829 159,213 156,616 321,209 161,923 159,286 326,365 164,522 161,843 331,384 167,059 164,325
6 302,115 150,469 151,646 309,512 155,979 153,533 315,248 158,867 156,381 320,652 161,588 159,064 325,826 164,198 161,628
7 300,975 149,853 151,122 301,600 150,166 151,434 309,013 155,678 153,335 314,768 158,575 156,193 320,186 161,305 158,881
8 300,113 149,390 150,723 300,519 149,585 150,934 301,168 149,909 151,259 308,593 155,424 153,169 314,359 158,327 156,032
9 299,398 149,006 150,392 299,708 149,155 150,553 300,134 149,360 150,774 300,801 149,693 151,108 308,233 155,209 153,024
10 298,790 148,684 150,106 299,040 148,804 150,236 299,368 148,961 150,407 299,810 149,173 150,637 300,490 149,513 150,977
11 311,642 155,087 156,555 298,470 148,507 149,963 298,735 148,634 150,101 299,077 148,797 150,280 299,530 149,016 150,514
12 309,444 153,957 155,487 311,328 154,916 156,412 298,183 148,350 149,833 298,461 148,482 149,979 298,813 148,651 150,162
13 304,131 151,208 152,923 309,128 153,784 155,344 311,023 154,748 156,275 297,904 148,195 149,709 298,192 148,333 149,859
14 295,591 146,763 148,828 303,791 151,018 152,773 308,796 153,597 155,199 310,703 154,567 156,136 297,608 148,027 149,581
15 284,291 140,857 143,434 295,213 146,546 148,667 303,417 150,802 152,615 308,430 153,384 155,046 310,347 154,359 155,988
16 271,325 134,072 137,253 283,875 140,613 143,262 294,796 146,299 148,497 303,003 150,555 152,448 308,022 153,140 154,882
17 258,347 127,295 131,052 270,880 133,806 137,074 283,424 140,342 143,082 294,343 146,025 148,318 302,551 150,281 152,270
18 247,247 121,543 125,704 257,882 127,014 130,868 270,407 133,519 136,888 282,944 140,048 142,896 293,859 145,727 148,132
19 239,250 117,470 121,780 246,761 121,246 125,515 257,390 126,712 130,678 269,907 133,210 136,697 282,436 139,732 142,704
20 233,662 114,690 118,972 238,741 117,156 121,585 246,252 120,931 125,321 256,875 126,391 130,484 269,382 132,881 136,501
21 228,452 112,166 116,286 233,131 114,360 118,771 238,214 116,827 121,387 245,725 120,600 125,125 256,341 126,054 130,287
22 222,861 109,421 113,440 227,906 111,826 116,080 232,590 114,022 118,568 237,678 116,492 121,186 245,188 120,263 124,925
23 218,073 106,954 111,119 222,311 109,082 113,229 227,361 111,489 115,872 232,050 113,687 118,363 237,142 116,159 120,983
24 214,102 104,717 109,385 217,525 106,621 110,904 221,770 108,751 113,019 226,823 111,159 115,664 231,518 113,360 118,158
25 210,749 102,681 108,068 213,559 104,392 109,167 216,990 106,299 110,691 221,240 108,431 112,809 226,297 110,841 115,456
26 207,755 100,760 106,995 210,210 102,364 107,846 213,029 104,078 108,951 216,467 105,988 110,479 220,722 108,123 112,599
27 204,833 98,973 105,860 207,217 100,448 106,769 209,682 102,056 107,626 212,509 103,773 108,736 215,954 105,686 110,268
28 201,818 97,389 104,429 204,295 98,664 105,631 206,689 100,142 106,547 209,163 101,754 107,409 211,999 103,475 108,524
29 198,521 96,005 102,516 201,279 97,080 104,199 203,766 98,359 105,407 206,170 99,842 106,328 208,653 101,457 107,196
30 194,903 94,690 100,213 197,982 95,696 102,286 200,749 96,775 103,974 203,246 98,059 105,187 205,659 99,545 106,114
31 191,110 93,363 97,747 194,364 94,379 99,985 197,451 95,389 102,062 200,228 96,474 103,754 202,733 97,761 104,972
32 187,051 91,788 95,263 190,571 93,050 97,521 193,832 94,071 99,761 196,928 95,086 101,842 199,713 96,176 103,537
33 182,407 89,723 92,684 186,512 91,475 95,037 190,039 92,741 97,298 193,309 93,766 99,543 196,412 94,787 101,625
34 177,043 87,010 90,033 181,872 89,412 92,460 185,982 91,166 94,816 189,515 92,436 97,079 192,792 93,467 99,325
35 170,988 83,732 87,256 176,515 86,704 89,811 181,345 89,105 92,240 185,460 90,862 94,598 188,999 92,136 96,863
36 165,066 80,497 84,569 170,468 83,432 87,036 175,993 86,401 89,592 180,826 88,803 92,023 184,945 90,561 94,384
37 158,775 77,113 81,662 164,550 80,202 84,348 169,951 83,134 86,817 175,476 86,101 89,375 180,309 88,503 91,806
38 150,740 72,768 77,972 158,260 76,822 81,438 164,032 79,907 84,125 169,431 82,836 86,595 174,954 85,801 89,153
39 140,493 67,225 73,268 150,225 72,482 77,743 157,736 76,527 81,209 163,504 79,608 83,896 168,901 82,535 86,366
40 128,851 60,937 67,914 139,984 66,947 73,037 149,696 72,191 77,505 157,195 76,227 80,968 162,959 79,305 83,654

86
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 116,446 54,206 62,240 128,355 60,673 67,682 139,459 66,664 72,795 149,149 71,893 77,256 156,636 75,921 80,715
42 104,985 48,009 56,976 115,972 53,959 62,013 127,846 60,403 67,443 138,920 66,375 72,545 148,588 71,589 76,999
43 95,992 43,279 52,713 104,538 47,780 56,758 115,490 53,708 61,782 127,327 60,129 67,198 138,370 66,081 72,289
44 90,479 40,611 49,868 95,569 43,065 52,504 104,088 47,548 56,540 115,004 53,454 61,550 126,805 59,851 66,954
45 87,591 39,487 48,104 90,068 40,402 49,666 95,145 42,848 52,297 103,637 47,315 56,322 114,518 53,198 61,320
46 85,792 38,982 46,810 87,180 39,276 47,904 89,655 40,191 49,464 94,719 42,629 52,090 103,184 47,079 56,105
47 83,688 38,266 45,422 85,370 38,763 46,607 86,761 39,060 47,701 89,235 39,974 49,261 94,286 42,405 51,881
48 81,141 37,260 43,881 83,248 38,035 45,213 84,931 38,534 46,397 86,326 38,833 47,493 88,798 39,748 49,050
49 77,609 35,643 41,966 80,677 37,015 43,662 82,782 37,789 44,993 84,467 38,290 46,177 85,864 38,593 47,271
50 73,487 33,637 39,850 77,120 35,384 41,736 80,179 36,750 43,429 82,282 37,524 44,758 83,967 38,026 45,941
51 69,196 31,560 37,636 72,979 33,367 39,612 76,596 35,105 41,491 79,644 36,466 43,178 81,745 37,239 44,506
52 65,660 29,878 35,782 68,677 31,284 37,393 72,440 33,081 39,359 76,042 34,809 41,233 79,079 36,164 42,915
53 63,499 28,802 34,697 65,133 29,599 35,534 68,136 30,997 37,139 71,880 32,783 39,097 75,464 34,500 40,964
54 63,153 28,527 34,626 62,963 28,519 34,444 64,592 29,313 35,279 67,580 30,703 36,877 71,304 32,476 38,828
55 64,006 28,785 35,221 62,595 28,235 34,360 62,416 28,231 34,185 64,041 29,022 35,019 67,014 30,403 36,611
56 65,528 29,335 36,193 63,414 28,476 34,938 62,026 27,936 34,090 61,859 27,937 33,922 63,480 28,726 34,754
57 66,437 29,617 36,820 64,884 29,001 35,883 62,802 28,157 34,645 61,438 27,628 33,810 61,283 27,635 33,648
58 65,686 29,178 36,508 65,735 29,254 36,481 64,210 28,651 35,559 62,160 27,822 34,338 60,822 27,306 33,516
59 62,557 27,706 34,851 64,928 28,788 36,140 64,989 28,869 36,120 63,493 28,279 35,214 61,479 27,467 34,012
60 57,718 25,492 32,226 61,763 27,298 34,465 64,117 28,370 35,747 64,190 28,456 35,734 62,727 27,882 34,845
61 52,291 23,018 29,273 56,910 25,079 31,831 60,912 26,862 34,050 63,248 27,923 35,325 63,335 28,014 35,321
62 47,373 20,768 26,605 51,486 22,608 28,878 56,046 24,638 31,408 60,002 26,396 33,606 62,319 27,446 34,873
63 43,174 18,849 24,325 46,571 20,363 26,208 50,627 22,173 28,454 55,125 24,170 30,955 59,033 25,902 33,131
64 40,133 17,455 22,678 42,372 18,447 23,925 45,718 19,934 25,784 49,713 21,712 28,001 54,147 23,674 30,473
65 37,918 16,434 21,484 39,315 17,049 22,266 41,520 18,023 23,497 44,812 19,482 25,330 48,744 21,226 27,518
66 35,999 15,560 20,439 37,069 16,017 21,052 38,446 16,621 21,825 40,616 17,576 23,040 43,851 19,005 24,846
67 33,798 14,558 19,240 35,112 15,128 19,984 36,167 15,577 20,590 37,524 16,170 21,354 39,657 17,105 22,552
68 31,185 13,338 17,847 32,882 14,115 18,767 34,171 14,673 19,498 35,212 15,114 20,098 36,548 15,695 20,853
69 27,959 11,802 16,157 30,253 12,894 17,359 31,911 13,651 18,260 33,176 14,196 18,980 34,202 14,628 19,574
70 24,412 10,096 14,316 27,040 11,372 15,668 29,270 12,430 16,840 30,887 13,165 17,722 32,127 13,697 18,430
71 20,769 8,348 12,421 23,528 9,694 13,834 26,071 10,924 15,147 28,234 11,946 16,288 29,810 12,658 17,152
72 17,604 6,839 10,765 19,941 7,983 11,958 22,599 9,275 13,324 25,054 10,457 14,597 27,147 11,441 15,706
73 15,368 5,778 9,590 16,831 6,511 10,320 19,074 7,604 11,470 21,627 8,839 12,788 23,990 9,971 14,019
74 14,313 5,285 9,028 14,625 5,472 9,153 16,024 6,170 9,854 18,168 7,210 10,958 20,613 8,386 12,227
75 14,059 5,183 8,876 13,550 4,978 8,572 13,852 5,157 8,695 15,186 5,818 9,368 17,230 6,803 10,427
76 14,190 5,254 8,936 13,232 4,851 8,381 12,762 4,662 8,100 13,054 4,833 8,221 14,322 5,456 8,866
77 14,096 5,230 8,866 13,269 4,884 8,385 12,381 4,512 7,869 11,950 4,340 7,610 12,235 4,502 7,733
78 13,448 4,999 8,449 13,085 4,825 8,260 12,326 4,509 7,817 11,511 4,169 7,342 11,121 4,012 7,109
79 12,029 4,469 7,560 12,382 4,573 7,809 12,058 4,418 7,640 11,368 4,131 7,237 10,628 3,823 6,805
80+ 69,482 26,054 43,428 70,102 26,067 44,035 71,006 26,194 44,812 71,543 26,183 45,360 71,458 25,935 45,523
Total 12,089,720 5,864,284 6,225,436 12,374,398 6,008,388 6,366,010 12,663,117 6,154,447 6,508,670 12,955,768 6,302,428 6,653,340 13,252,274 6,452,338 6,799,936

87
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Single
Both
age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Male Female Both sexes Male Female
sexes
0 364,790 184,486 180,304 368,549 186,401 182,148 372,161 188,242 183,919 375,527 189,958 185,569 378,549 191,501 187,048
1 357,661 180,657 177,004 361,689 182,720 178,969 365,547 184,698 180,849 369,263 186,605 182,658 372,736 188,389 184,347
2 351,963 177,683 174,280 356,249 179,887 176,362 360,327 181,982 178,345 364,236 183,992 180,244 368,005 185,932 182,073
3 346,621 174,887 171,734 350,954 177,115 173,839 355,272 179,339 175,933 359,383 181,455 177,928 363,327 183,487 179,840
4 341,405 172,176 169,229 345,851 174,444 171,407 350,207 176,687 173,520 354,549 178,927 175,622 358,685 181,058 177,627
5 336,164 169,470 166,694 340,787 171,814 168,973 345,252 174,094 171,158 349,625 176,348 173,277 353,987 178,600 175,387
6 330,857 166,742 164,115 335,650 169,162 166,488 340,287 171,515 168,772 344,766 173,804 170,962 349,155 176,069 173,086
7 325,370 163,922 161,448 330,411 166,473 163,938 335,215 168,900 166,315 339,865 171,260 168,605 344,357 173,558 170,799
8 319,784 161,063 158,721 324,977 163,685 161,292 330,027 166,241 163,786 334,841 168,674 166,167 339,501 171,042 168,459
9 314,005 158,116 155,889 319,437 160,856 158,581 324,637 163,482 161,155 329,695 166,044 163,651 334,517 168,482 166,035
10 307,924 155,029 152,895 313,700 157,939 155,761 319,138 160,682 158,456 324,344 163,312 161,032 329,409 165,878 163,531
11 300,219 149,361 150,858 307,654 154,877 152,777 313,435 157,789 155,646 318,877 160,535 158,342 324,089 163,168 160,921
12 299,274 148,874 150,400 299,970 149,224 150,746 307,407 154,739 152,668 313,192 157,654 155,538 318,638 160,402 158,236
13 298,551 148,506 150,045 299,020 148,734 150,286 299,723 149,087 150,636 307,162 154,602 152,560 312,951 157,519 155,432
14 297,904 148,170 149,734 298,272 148,348 149,924 298,748 148,579 150,169 299,459 148,937 150,522 306,900 154,451 152,449
15 297,276 147,833 149,443 297,581 147,981 149,600 297,957 148,163 149,794 298,442 148,399 150,043 299,161 148,762 150,399
16 309,947 154,119 155,828 296,902 147,609 149,293 297,217 147,761 149,456 297,602 147,949 149,653 298,096 148,190 149,906
17 307,574 152,867 154,707 309,507 153,850 155,657 296,491 147,358 149,133 296,815 147,516 149,299 297,211 147,709 149,502
18 302,065 149,981 152,084 307,091 152,569 154,522 309,032 153,557 155,475 296,048 147,082 148,966 296,383 147,246 149,137
19 293,343 145,406 147,937 301,547 149,657 151,890 306,577 152,246 154,331 308,527 153,239 155,288 295,576 146,785 148,791
20 281,899 139,395 142,504 292,798 145,062 147,736 300,999 149,310 151,689 306,033 151,901 154,132 307,994 152,900 155,094
21 268,834 132,535 136,299 281,338 139,039 142,299 292,228 144,700 147,528 300,428 148,946 151,482 305,467 151,540 153,927
22 255,793 125,710 130,083 268,272 132,180 136,092 280,763 138,675 142,088 291,645 144,330 147,315 299,843 148,574 151,269
23 244,647 119,927 124,720 255,242 125,365 129,877 267,707 131,826 135,881 280,186 138,312 141,874 291,060 143,961 147,099
24 236,610 115,832 120,778 244,111 119,597 124,514 254,695 125,028 129,667 267,147 131,479 135,668 279,614 137,957 141,657
25 230,993 113,043 117,950 236,087 115,515 120,572 243,584 119,277 124,307 254,158 124,702 129,456 266,597 131,144 135,453
26 225,780 110,533 115,247 230,477 112,736 117,741 235,572 115,208 120,364 243,065 118,967 124,098 253,630 124,385 129,245
27 220,211 107,822 112,389 225,270 110,232 115,038 229,969 112,436 117,533 235,065 114,908 120,157 242,555 118,665 123,890
28 215,447 105,389 110,058 219,706 107,525 112,181 224,766 109,936 114,830 229,467 112,141 117,326 234,565 114,614 119,951
29 211,493 103,179 108,314 214,945 105,095 109,850 219,207 107,232 111,975 224,267 109,643 114,624 228,971 111,849 117,122
30 208,147 101,162 106,985 210,992 102,886 108,106 214,448 104,803 109,645 218,712 106,941 111,771 223,773 109,352 114,421
31 205,151 99,250 105,901 207,645 100,869 106,776 210,495 102,594 107,901 213,954 104,512 109,442 218,221 106,651 111,570
32 202,224 97,466 104,758 204,647 98,956 105,691 207,147 100,577 106,570 210,002 102,304 107,698 213,465 104,223 109,242
33 199,202 95,879 103,323 201,718 97,172 104,546 204,147 98,665 105,482 206,652 100,287 106,365 209,512 102,016 107,496
34 195,899 94,490 101,409 198,694 95,586 103,108 201,216 96,881 104,335 203,651 98,376 105,275 206,162 100,000 106,162
35 192,280 93,169 99,111 195,391 94,196 101,195 198,191 95,295 102,896 200,718 96,592 104,126 203,159 98,089 105,070
36 188,486 91,838 96,648 191,770 92,874 98,896 194,886 93,904 100,982 197,691 95,006 102,685 200,224 96,307 103,917
37 184,428 90,262 94,166 187,972 91,540 96,432 191,260 92,580 98,680 194,380 93,613 100,767 197,190 94,718 102,472
38 179,785 88,200 91,585 183,904 89,959 93,945 187,451 91,240 96,211 190,742 92,283 98,459 193,867 93,320 100,547
39 174,418 85,495 88,923 179,246 87,893 91,353 183,366 89,653 93,713 186,915 90,936 95,979 190,211 91,982 98,229
40 168,350 82,226 86,124 173,861 85,182 88,679 178,687 87,578 91,109 182,807 89,339 93,468 186,359 90,624 95,735

88
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 162,391 78,992 83,399 167,776 81,909 85,867 173,281 84,861 88,420 178,104 87,254 90,850 182,224 89,016 93,208
42 156,058 75,607 80,451 161,804 78,672 83,132 167,182 81,584 85,598 172,680 84,531 88,149 177,500 86,922 90,578
43 148,011 71,279 76,732 155,465 75,285 80,180 161,202 78,344 82,858 166,572 81,251 85,321 172,065 84,193 87,872
44 137,813 65,782 72,031 147,426 70,962 76,464 154,863 74,958 79,905 160,590 78,010 82,580 165,954 80,911 85,043
45 126,278 59,570 66,708 137,251 65,479 71,772 146,836 70,641 76,195 154,255 74,625 79,630 159,973 77,671 82,302
46 114,026 52,937 61,089 125,745 59,284 66,461 136,682 65,170 71,512 146,239 70,314 75,925 153,640 74,286 79,354
47 102,719 46,835 55,884 113,521 52,668 60,853 125,197 58,987 66,210 136,097 64,850 71,247 145,626 69,976 75,650
48 93,832 42,168 51,664 102,233 46,578 55,655 112,992 52,384 60,608 124,624 58,675 65,949 135,485 64,513 70,972
49 88,331 39,505 48,826 93,347 41,915 51,432 101,714 46,303 55,411 112,427 52,079 60,348 124,010 58,340 65,670
50 85,366 38,331 47,035 87,827 39,241 48,586 92,823 41,639 51,184 101,151 46,003 55,148 111,814 51,747 60,067
51 83,429 37,741 45,688 84,827 38,048 46,779 87,282 38,955 48,327 92,256 41,340 50,916 100,542 45,678 54,864
52 81,174 36,934 44,240 82,855 37,437 45,418 84,254 37,745 46,509 86,702 38,650 48,052 91,652 41,021 50,631
53 78,487 35,847 42,640 80,576 36,615 43,961 82,255 37,118 45,137 83,653 37,428 46,225 86,094 38,329 47,765
54 74,868 34,182 40,686 77,877 35,521 42,356 79,959 36,286 43,673 81,636 36,789 44,847 83,034 37,100 45,934
55 70,716 32,163 38,553 74,260 33,857 40,403 77,254 35,187 42,067 79,330 35,950 43,380 81,004 36,452 44,552
56 66,436 30,096 36,340 70,114 31,843 38,271 73,637 33,524 40,113 76,616 34,846 41,770 78,686 35,606 43,080
57 62,898 28,418 34,480 65,835 29,779 36,056 69,490 31,511 37,979 72,992 33,179 39,813 75,955 34,492 41,463
58 60,677 27,316 33,361 62,285 28,095 34,190 65,203 29,444 35,759 68,833 31,161 37,672 72,312 32,816 39,496
59 60,165 26,961 33,204 60,031 26,975 33,056 61,631 27,749 33,882 64,529 29,086 35,443 68,131 30,787 37,344
60 60,748 27,085 33,663 59,458 26,591 32,867 59,336 26,609 32,727 60,928 27,376 33,552 63,803 28,700 35,103
61 61,902 27,453 34,449 59,960 26,674 33,286 58,698 26,192 32,506 58,587 26,214 32,373 60,170 26,975 33,195
62 62,417 27,541 34,876 61,017 26,994 34,023 59,114 26,233 32,881 57,881 25,763 32,118 57,783 25,791 31,992
63 61,325 26,937 34,388 61,435 27,036 34,399 60,070 26,504 33,566 58,208 25,762 32,446 57,005 25,306 31,699
64 57,998 25,376 32,622 60,264 26,396 33,868 60,386 26,498 33,888 59,057 25,983 33,074 57,239 25,261 31,978
65 53,104 23,149 29,955 56,895 24,819 32,076 59,133 25,822 33,311 59,266 25,928 33,338 57,976 25,430 32,546
66 47,711 20,711 27,000 51,993 22,593 29,400 55,719 24,228 31,491 57,926 25,214 32,712 58,072 25,323 32,749
67 42,828 18,500 24,328 46,611 20,166 26,445 50,809 22,004 28,805 54,466 23,602 30,864 56,640 24,568 32,072
68 38,637 16,607 22,030 41,739 17,967 23,772 45,441 19,590 25,851 49,548 21,381 28,167 53,132 22,940 30,192
69 35,512 15,195 20,317 37,555 16,083 21,472 40,584 17,404 23,180 44,198 18,982 25,216 48,209 20,724 27,485
70 33,133 14,118 19,015 34,415 14,670 19,745 36,408 15,532 20,876 39,360 16,814 22,546 42,881 18,344 24,537
71 31,020 13,174 17,846 32,004 13,584 18,420 33,256 14,120 19,136 35,197 14,955 20,242 38,066 16,194 21,872
72 28,675 12,128 16,547 29,853 12,626 17,227 30,814 13,025 17,789 32,034 13,543 18,491 33,919 14,350 19,569
73 26,006 10,914 15,092 27,483 11,573 15,910 28,626 12,054 16,572 29,562 12,439 17,123 30,748 12,940 17,808
74 22,876 9,464 13,412 24,812 10,364 14,448 26,235 10,995 15,240 27,340 11,457 15,883 28,249 11,828 16,421
75 19,558 7,916 11,642 21,717 8,938 12,779 23,567 9,792 13,775 24,933 10,394 14,539 25,998 10,835 15,163
76 16,258 6,383 9,875 18,464 7,431 11,033 20,514 8,395 12,119 22,274 9,201 13,073 23,579 9,771 13,808
77 13,430 5,085 8,345 15,254 5,952 9,302 17,335 6,933 10,402 19,270 7,836 11,434 20,938 8,593 12,345
78 11,394 4,165 7,229 12,515 4,707 7,808 14,224 5,513 8,711 16,174 6,425 9,749 17,991 7,265 10,726
79 10,277 3,682 6,595 10,537 3,824 6,713 11,581 4,324 7,257 13,171 5,068 8,103 14,987 5,910 9,077
80+ 70,776 25,461 45,315 69,936 24,947 44,989 69,522 24,656 44,866 70,190 24,881 45,309 72,285 25,766 46,519
Total 13,552,034 6,603,858 6,948,176 13,854,856 6,756,902 7,097,954 14,160,550 6,911,352 7,249,198 14,468,759 7,067,049 7,401,710 14,779,043 7,223,769 7,555,274

89
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

Single
Both Both
age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Male Female Male Female
sexes sexes
0 380,690 192,584 188,106 382,141 193,318 188,823 383,244 193,876 189,368 383,961 194,238 189,723 384,244 194,381 189,863
1 375,854 189,986 185,868 378,099 191,128 186,971 379,659 191,923 187,736 380,875 192,545 188,330 381,708 192,973 188,735
2 371,526 187,744 183,782 374,694 189,369 185,325 376,991 190,541 186,450 378,607 191,368 187,239 379,880 192,022 187,858
3 367,127 185,445 181,682 370,680 187,275 183,405 373,881 188,919 184,962 376,215 190,111 186,104 377,869 190,959 186,910
4 362,651 183,103 179,548 366,474 185,074 181,400 370,051 186,917 183,134 373,277 188,576 184,701 375,638 189,783 185,855
5 358,140 180,741 177,399 362,124 182,796 179,328 365,965 184,777 181,188 369,561 186,631 182,930 372,807 188,300 184,507
6 353,530 178,328 175,202 357,697 180,477 177,220 361,695 182,540 179,155 365,552 184,529 181,023 369,164 186,392 182,772
7 348,757 175,828 172,929 353,143 178,094 175,049 357,322 180,249 177,073 361,333 182,319 179,014 365,202 184,316 180,886
8 344,002 173,344 170,658 348,412 175,620 172,792 352,808 177,890 174,918 356,997 180,052 176,945 361,019 182,128 178,891
9 339,185 170,853 168,332 343,693 173,160 170,533 348,111 175,439 172,672 352,515 177,715 174,800 356,713 179,881 176,832
10 334,237 168,319 165,918 338,910 170,693 168,217 343,426 173,003 170,423 347,850 175,287 172,563 352,262 177,565 174,697
11 329,158 165,736 163,422 333,991 168,179 165,812 338,670 170,556 168,114 343,191 172,869 170,322 347,621 175,156 172,465
12 323,854 163,037 160,817 328,927 165,607 163,320 333,765 168,053 165,712 338,449 170,432 168,017 342,975 172,747 170,228
13 318,401 160,269 158,132 323,620 162,906 160,714 328,697 165,477 163,220 333,540 167,925 165,615 338,228 170,306 167,922
14 312,691 157,369 155,322 318,144 160,120 158,024 323,367 162,759 160,608 328,449 165,332 163,117 333,296 167,782 165,514
15 306,602 154,274 152,328 312,396 157,193 155,203 317,853 159,945 157,908 323,079 162,584 160,495 328,165 165,159 163,006
16 298,823 148,557 150,266 306,263 154,065 152,198 312,060 156,985 155,075 317,520 159,738 157,782 322,750 162,379 160,371
17 297,713 147,954 149,759 298,449 148,324 150,125 305,888 153,829 152,059 311,687 156,750 154,937 317,151 159,504 157,647
18 296,787 147,444 149,343 297,299 147,694 149,605 298,044 148,069 149,975 305,482 153,570 151,912 311,284 156,490 154,794
19 295,921 146,954 148,967 296,336 147,157 149,179 296,857 147,413 149,444 297,611 147,792 149,819 305,048 153,288 151,760
20 295,076 146,466 148,610 295,432 146,641 148,791 295,857 146,850 149,007 296,390 147,110 149,280 297,154 147,495 149,659
21 307,436 152,543 154,893 294,554 146,131 148,423 294,921 146,311 148,610 295,358 146,526 148,832 295,902 146,793 149,109
22 304,885 151,168 153,717 306,864 152,176 154,688 294,019 145,786 148,233 294,398 145,973 148,425 294,847 146,194 148,653
23 299,254 148,201 151,053 304,300 150,796 153,504 306,288 151,809 154,479 293,481 145,441 148,040 293,872 145,635 148,237
24 290,479 143,598 146,881 298,670 147,835 150,835 303,720 150,431 153,289 305,719 151,449 154,270 292,948 145,103 147,845
25 279,051 137,612 141,439 289,907 143,246 146,661 298,096 147,480 150,616 303,150 150,077 153,073 305,159 151,099 154,060
26 266,057 130,818 135,239 278,498 137,277 141,221 289,346 142,904 146,442 297,533 147,135 150,398 302,591 149,733 152,858
27 253,110 124,076 129,034 265,523 130,499 135,024 277,953 136,948 141,005 288,793 142,569 146,224 296,978 146,798 150,180
28 242,051 118,367 123,684 252,596 123,770 128,826 264,996 130,184 134,812 277,414 136,625 140,789 288,247 142,239 146,008
29 234,069 114,322 119,747 241,551 118,071 123,480 252,086 123,467 128,619 264,475 129,872 134,603 276,882 136,304 140,578
30 228,478 111,558 116,920 233,577 114,030 119,547 241,056 117,776 123,280 251,582 123,165 128,417 263,958 129,560 134,398
31 223,282 109,062 114,220 227,989 111,267 116,722 233,089 113,739 119,350 240,564 117,481 123,083 251,081 122,863 128,218
32 217,733 106,362 111,371 222,795 108,772 114,023 227,503 110,977 116,526 232,604 113,448 119,156 240,076 117,187 122,889
33 212,978 103,935 109,043 217,248 106,074 111,174 222,310 108,483 113,827 227,020 110,688 116,332 232,123 113,159 118,964
34 209,026 101,729 107,297 212,495 103,649 108,846 216,766 105,787 110,979 221,829 108,195 113,634 226,541 110,401 116,140
35 205,675 99,714 105,961 208,543 101,444 107,099 212,016 103,364 108,652 216,289 105,502 110,787 221,353 107,910 113,443
36 202,670 97,805 104,865 205,191 99,430 105,761 208,063 101,161 106,902 211,539 103,081 108,458 215,815 105,219 110,596
37 199,728 96,020 103,708 202,179 97,519 104,660 204,705 99,145 105,560 207,582 100,877 106,705 211,062 102,798 108,264
38 196,682 94,427 102,255 199,225 95,731 103,494 201,681 97,231 104,450 204,212 98,858 105,354 207,094 100,591 106,503
39 193,339 93,021 100,318 196,158 94,130 102,028 198,706 95,435 103,271 201,168 96,937 104,231 203,705 98,565 105,140
40 189,657 91,673 97,984 192,789 92,714 100,075 195,612 93,825 101,787 198,166 95,132 103,034 200,634 96,635 103,999

90
 Table 32: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 185,778 90,303 95,475 189,079 91,353 97,726 192,214 92,397 99,817 195,042 93,511 101,531 197,602 94,819 102,783
42 181,620 88,683 92,937 185,175 89,971 95,204 188,478 91,024 97,454 191,618 92,070 99,548 194,451 93,186 101,265
43 176,880 86,581 90,299 180,998 88,340 92,658 184,555 89,630 94,925 187,861 90,685 97,176 191,004 91,733 99,271
44 171,438 83,847 87,591 176,248 86,231 90,017 180,365 87,990 92,375 183,923 89,281 94,642 187,232 90,338 96,894
45 165,328 80,566 84,762 170,804 83,494 87,310 175,609 85,875 89,734 179,725 87,633 92,092 183,284 88,924 94,360
46 159,347 77,324 82,023 164,693 80,211 84,482 170,160 83,133 87,027 174,961 85,509 89,452 179,074 87,266 91,808
47 153,007 73,934 79,073 158,702 76,963 81,739 164,038 79,843 84,195 169,496 82,757 86,739 174,291 85,129 89,162
48 144,981 69,617 75,364 152,341 73,561 78,780 158,023 76,580 81,443 163,349 79,452 83,897 168,797 82,358 86,439
49 134,828 64,149 70,679 144,289 69,230 75,059 151,625 73,157 78,468 157,293 76,166 81,127 162,607 79,028 83,579
50 123,343 57,973 65,370 134,113 63,751 70,362 143,536 68,805 74,731 150,846 72,715 78,131 156,498 75,711 80,787
51 111,149 51,386 59,763 122,620 57,572 65,048 133,338 63,315 70,023 142,717 68,341 74,376 149,999 72,231 77,768
52 99,893 45,328 54,565 110,440 50,997 59,443 121,847 57,142 64,705 132,509 62,848 69,661 141,843 67,843 74,000
53 91,019 40,684 50,335 99,211 44,961 54,250 109,696 50,588 59,108 121,036 56,689 64,347 131,638 62,356 69,282
54 85,467 37,997 47,470 90,365 40,336 50,029 98,507 44,580 53,927 108,927 50,165 58,762 120,199 56,220 63,979
55 82,402 36,765 45,637 84,826 37,658 47,168 89,697 39,979 49,718 97,788 44,191 53,597 108,142 49,732 58,410
56 80,356 36,108 44,248 81,754 36,421 45,333 84,169 37,310 46,859 89,013 39,614 49,399 97,052 43,791 53,261
57 78,017 35,249 42,768 79,684 35,749 43,935 81,081 36,063 45,018 83,487 36,947 46,540 88,302 39,233 49,069
58 75,257 34,118 41,139 77,312 34,871 42,441 78,975 35,370 43,605 80,371 35,685 44,686 82,768 36,564 46,204
59 71,585 32,426 39,159 74,512 33,717 40,795 76,557 34,465 42,092 78,216 34,963 43,253 79,611 35,279 44,332
60 67,375 30,383 36,992 70,801 32,005 38,796 73,707 33,284 40,423 75,743 34,026 41,717 77,397 34,522 42,875
61 63,020 28,283 34,737 66,559 29,946 36,613 69,955 31,549 38,406 72,839 32,814 40,025 74,864 33,551 41,313
62 59,354 26,543 32,811 62,177 27,834 34,343 65,680 29,475 36,205 69,043 31,057 37,986 71,903 32,308 39,595
63 56,920 25,337 31,583 58,479 26,080 32,399 61,272 27,353 33,919 64,736 28,970 35,766 68,064 30,530 37,534
64 56,068 24,818 31,250 55,996 24,852 31,144 57,541 25,585 31,956 60,302 26,839 33,463 63,725 28,430 35,295
65 56,204 24,727 31,477 55,066 24,297 30,769 55,007 24,335 30,672 56,538 25,058 31,480 59,264 26,290 32,974
66 56,822 24,841 31,981 55,098 24,159 30,939 53,995 23,744 30,251 53,950 23,785 30,165 55,465 24,496 30,969
67 56,797 24,680 32,117 55,588 24,215 31,373 53,916 23,555 30,361 52,851 23,155 29,696 52,820 23,200 29,620
68 55,268 23,884 31,384 55,437 23,998 31,439 54,273 23,551 30,722 52,655 22,914 29,741 51,629 22,529 29,100
69 51,712 22,241 29,471 53,808 23,161 30,647 53,990 23,277 30,713 52,872 22,848 30,024 51,312 22,236 29,076
70 46,789 20,032 26,757 50,206 21,504 28,702 52,259 22,400 29,859 52,454 22,517 29,937 51,385 22,108 29,277
71 41,486 17,673 23,813 45,285 19,305 25,980 48,611 20,729 27,882 50,617 21,599 29,018 50,825 21,718 29,107
72 36,698 15,544 21,154 40,013 16,968 23,045 43,695 18,541 25,154 46,923 19,914 27,009 48,881 20,756 28,125
73 32,571 13,715 18,856 35,257 14,861 20,396 38,458 16,228 22,230 42,016 17,738 24,278 45,141 19,058 26,083
74 29,397 12,309 17,088 31,156 13,050 18,106 33,741 14,146 19,595 36,823 15,452 21,371 40,249 16,896 23,353
75 26,877 11,191 15,686 27,983 11,649 16,334 29,674 12,356 17,318 32,153 13,398 18,755 35,108 14,641 20,467
76 24,601 10,190 14,411 25,448 10,529 14,919 26,511 10,965 15,546 28,128 11,634 16,494 30,496 12,620 17,876
77 22,178 9,129 13,049 23,153 9,525 13,628 23,965 9,845 14,120 24,982 10,257 14,725 26,523 10,888 15,635
78 19,560 7,971 11,589 20,733 8,472 12,261 21,660 8,843 12,817 22,435 9,145 13,290 23,402 9,532 13,870
79 16,682 6,686 9,996 18,150 7,339 10,811 19,252 7,805 11,447 20,127 8,150 11,977 20,863 8,432 12,431
80+ 75,812 27,301 48,511 80,461 29,329 51,132 85,872 31,667 54,205 91,610 34,099 57,511 97,430 36,504 60,926
Total 15,090,251 7,380,862 7,709,389 15,401,596 7,537,916 7,863,680 15,712,647 7,694,732 8,017,915 16,022,992 7,851,095 8,171,897 16,332,186 8,006,778 8,325,408

91
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario

Single 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 313,894 158,712 155,182 312,682 158,099 154,583 310,816 157,155 153,661 308,404 155,935 152,469 305,508 154,470 151,038
1 308,213 153,779 154,434 309,337 156,179 153,158 308,427 155,732 152,695 306,869 154,958 151,911 304,768 153,909 150,859
2 305,645 152,434 153,211 306,064 152,656 153,408 307,317 155,107 152,210 306,550 154,732 151,818 305,137 154,031 151,106
3 303,912 151,517 152,395 304,140 151,630 152,510 304,649 151,896 152,753 305,987 154,381 151,606 305,315 154,054 151,261
4 302,609 150,819 151,790 302,769 150,898 151,871 303,064 151,045 152,019 303,640 151,343 152,297 305,040 153,854 151,186
5 301,570 150,256 151,314 301,692 150,316 151,376 301,905 150,421 151,484 302,253 150,593 151,660 302,881 150,918 151,963
6 314,194 156,520 157,674 300,803 149,828 150,975 300,969 149,910 151,059 301,226 150,037 151,189 301,618 150,230 151,388
7 311,703 155,209 156,494 313,499 156,129 157,370 300,175 149,472 150,703 300,378 149,572 150,806 300,672 149,718 150,954
8 306,152 152,313 153,839 311,094 154,867 156,227 312,920 155,802 157,118 299,653 149,175 150,478 299,888 149,290 150,598
9 297,452 147,772 149,680 305,624 152,020 153,604 310,586 154,582 156,004 312,438 155,530 156,908 299,219 148,927 150,292
10 286,086 141,833 144,253 297,003 147,527 149,476 305,187 151,780 153,407 310,166 154,350 155,816 312,040 155,308 156,732
11 273,139 135,071 138,068 285,702 141,628 144,074 296,625 147,324 149,301 304,818 151,581 153,237 309,812 154,158 155,654
12 260,240 128,357 131,883 272,796 134,891 137,905 285,360 141,448 143,912 296,288 147,145 149,143 304,491 151,405 153,086
13 249,257 122,693 126,564 259,911 128,184 131,727 272,467 134,717 137,750 285,033 141,273 143,760 295,966 146,972 148,994
14 241,406 118,726 122,680 248,918 122,511 126,407 259,572 128,002 131,570 272,129 134,533 137,596 284,696 141,088 143,608
15 235,976 116,060 119,916 241,037 118,524 122,513 248,553 122,309 126,244 259,208 127,798 131,410 271,763 134,327 137,436
16 230,912 113,643 117,269 235,570 115,832 119,738 240,637 118,297 122,340 248,156 122,082 126,074 258,810 127,569 131,241
17 225,441 110,987 114,454 230,472 113,390 117,082 235,136 115,581 119,555 240,210 118,048 122,162 247,731 121,833 125,898
18 220,755 108,591 112,164 224,972 110,713 114,259 230,008 113,118 116,890 234,679 115,310 119,369 239,758 117,779 121,979
19 216,865 106,400 110,465 220,257 108,295 111,962 224,480 110,419 114,061 229,521 112,825 116,696 234,199 115,020 119,179
20 213,564 104,383 109,181 216,336 106,082 110,254 219,737 107,980 111,757 223,967 110,106 113,861 229,014 112,514 116,500
21 210,594 102,455 108,139 213,008 104,046 108,962 215,790 105,748 110,042 219,200 107,649 111,551 223,437 109,779 113,658
22 207,678 100,646 107,032 210,019 102,107 107,912 212,444 103,702 108,742 215,236 105,408 109,828 218,655 107,313 111,342
23 204,659 99,039 105,620 207,093 100,296 106,797 209,446 101,761 107,685 211,881 103,360 108,521 214,684 105,071 109,613
24 201,355 97,637 103,718 204,072 98,692 105,380 206,518 99,954 106,564 208,882 101,423 107,459 211,329 103,027 108,302
25 197,729 96,312 101,417 200,771 97,296 103,475 203,499 98,357 105,142 205,956 99,624 106,332 208,332 101,098 107,234
26 193,929 94,982 98,947 197,149 95,977 101,172 200,201 96,968 103,233 202,940 98,034 104,906 205,409 99,306 106,103
27 189,861 93,405 96,456 193,352 94,651 98,701 196,581 95,652 100,929 199,643 96,648 102,995 202,394 97,720 104,674
28 185,200 91,331 93,869 189,287 93,077 96,210 192,786 94,328 98,458 196,025 95,335 100,690 199,097 96,337 102,760
29 179,805 88,598 91,207 184,630 91,006 93,624 188,723 92,754 95,969 192,231 94,010 98,221 195,480 95,023 100,457
30 173,705 85,286 88,419 179,242 88,277 90,965 184,070 90,685 93,385 188,170 92,436 95,734 191,686 93,697 97,989
31 167,738 82,017 85,721 173,151 84,971 88,180 178,688 87,959 90,729 183,519 90,368 93,151 187,626 92,122 95,504
32 161,398 78,596 82,802 167,193 81,709 85,484 172,606 84,660 87,946 178,143 87,646 90,497 182,979 90,055 92,924
33 153,290 74,197 79,093 160,864 78,295 82,569 166,656 81,404 85,252 172,070 84,353 87,717 177,609 87,338 90,271
34 142,942 68,580 74,362 152,773 73,909 78,864 160,338 77,999 82,339 166,129 81,105 85,024 171,544 84,052 87,492
35 131,184 62,206 68,978 142,451 68,308 74,143 152,265 73,624 78,641 159,822 77,707 82,115 165,613 80,810 84,803
36 118,653 55,379 63,274 130,725 61,956 68,769 141,968 68,041 73,927 151,765 73,344 78,421 159,316 77,420 81,896
37 107,078 49,095 57,983 118,227 55,151 63,076 130,271 61,707 68,564 141,490 67,776 73,714 151,272 73,067 78,205
38 98,009 44,305 53,704 106,680 48,886 57,794 117,801 54,923 62,878 129,816 61,459 68,357 141,013 67,512 73,501
39 92,478 41,619 50,859 97,628 44,109 53,519 106,278 48,676 57,602 117,370 54,693 62,677 129,356 61,210 68,146
40 89,616 40,511 49,105 92,097 41,426 50,671 97,238 43,910 53,328 105,866 48,462 57,404 116,930 54,461 62,469

92
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 87,856 40,036 47,820 89,225 40,314 48,911 91,707 41,230 50,477 96,839 43,708 53,131 105,445 48,246 57,199
42 85,780 39,344 46,436 87,452 39,832 47,620 88,826 40,114 48,712 91,310 41,030 50,280 96,432 43,503 52,929
43 83,256 38,361 44,895 85,367 39,135 46,232 87,043 39,625 47,418 88,423 39,911 48,512 90,908 40,829 50,079
44 79,740 36,759 42,981 82,841 38,149 44,692 84,953 38,923 46,030 86,633 39,416 47,217 88,019 39,707 48,312
45 75,639 34,767 40,872 79,330 36,548 42,782 82,428 37,936 44,492 84,542 38,711 45,831 86,226 39,208 47,018
46 71,384 32,709 38,675 75,239 34,559 40,680 78,922 36,335 42,587 82,015 37,721 44,294 84,131 38,499 45,632
47 67,914 31,065 36,849 70,989 32,504 38,485 74,834 34,348 40,486 78,509 36,119 42,390 81,598 37,503 44,095
48 65,866 30,047 35,819 67,516 30,857 36,659 70,583 32,292 38,291 74,417 34,130 40,287 78,083 35,895 42,188
49 65,691 29,860 35,831 65,448 29,829 35,619 67,098 30,638 36,460 70,157 32,069 38,088 73,979 33,899 40,080
50 66,753 30,223 36,530 65,236 29,622 35,614 65,005 29,596 35,409 66,654 30,405 36,249 69,704 31,830 37,874
51 68,507 30,888 37,619 66,248 29,959 36,289 64,753 29,369 35,384 64,534 29,349 35,185 66,181 30,155 36,026
52 69,628 31,273 38,355 67,947 30,597 37,350 65,718 29,682 36,036 64,244 29,102 35,142 64,038 29,087 34,951
53 69,028 30,905 38,123 69,021 30,958 38,063 67,367 30,294 37,073 65,168 29,394 35,774 63,717 28,825 34,892
54 65,955 29,456 36,499 68,394 30,577 37,817 68,400 30,635 37,765 66,772 29,984 36,788 64,604 29,099 35,505
55 61,101 27,229 33,872 65,322 29,130 36,192 67,750 30,244 37,506 67,769 30,308 37,461 66,169 29,670 36,499
56 55,633 24,728 30,905 60,486 26,913 33,573 64,677 28,798 35,879 67,095 29,906 37,189 67,128 29,976 37,152
57 50,695 22,461 28,234 55,038 24,424 30,614 59,852 26,588 33,264 64,014 28,456 35,558 66,421 29,559 36,862
58 46,509 20,540 25,969 50,112 22,164 27,948 54,418 24,106 30,312 59,191 26,249 32,942 63,321 28,100 35,221
59 43,552 19,179 24,373 45,927 20,244 25,683 49,497 21,850 27,647 53,763 23,772 29,991 58,492 25,891 32,601
60 41,481 18,219 23,262 42,954 18,876 24,078 45,308 19,930 25,378 48,842 21,517 27,325 53,065 23,415 29,650
61 39,730 17,417 22,313 40,855 17,903 22,952 42,317 18,554 23,763 44,649 19,595 25,054 48,144 21,161 26,983
62 37,664 16,466 21,198 39,071 17,086 21,985 40,189 17,568 22,621 41,640 18,212 23,428 43,947 19,240 24,707
63 35,124 15,260 19,864 36,980 16,124 20,856 38,373 16,736 21,637 39,483 17,214 22,269 40,921 17,851 23,070
64 31,865 13,673 18,192 34,426 14,914 19,512 36,256 15,764 20,492 37,634 16,368 21,266 38,735 16,841 21,894
65 28,187 11,861 16,326 31,171 13,336 17,835 33,688 14,552 19,136 35,490 15,386 20,104 36,852 15,981 20,871
66 24,329 9,959 14,370 27,515 11,542 15,973 30,439 12,982 17,457 32,908 14,171 18,737 34,681 14,989 19,692
67 20,952 8,298 12,654 23,694 9,667 14,027 26,806 11,208 15,598 29,665 12,611 17,054 32,083 13,772 18,311
68 18,619 7,144 11,475 20,352 8,032 12,320 23,023 9,361 13,662 26,057 10,857 15,200 28,847 12,222 16,625
69 17,689 6,674 11,015 18,033 6,894 11,139 19,720 7,754 11,966 22,316 9,041 13,275 25,267 10,491 14,776
70 17,764 6,700 11,064 17,077 6,418 10,659 17,417 6,632 10,785 19,054 7,464 11,590 21,572 8,707 12,865
71 18,377 6,972 11,405 17,087 6,419 10,668 16,435 6,152 10,283 16,771 6,361 10,410 18,356 7,162 11,194
72 18,759 7,144 11,615 17,605 6,651 10,954 16,379 6,127 10,252 15,763 5,876 9,887 16,094 6,079 10,015
73 18,446 7,050 11,396 17,890 6,784 11,106 16,800 6,319 10,481 15,640 5,825 9,815 15,061 5,590 9,471
74 17,063 6,530 10,533 17,504 6,659 10,845 16,989 6,412 10,577 15,965 5,977 9,988 14,872 5,513 9,359
75 14,992 5,736 9,256 16,105 6,132 9,973 16,533 6,258 10,275 16,058 6,029 10,029 15,101 5,624 9,477
76 14,010 5,275 8,735 14,066 5,352 8,714 15,121 5,726 9,395 15,535 5,848 9,687 15,100 5,639 9,461
77 12,236 4,594 7,642 13,057 4,887 8,170 13,119 4,962 8,157 14,114 5,313 8,801 14,512 5,431 9,081
78 10,669 4,052 6,617 11,319 4,223 7,096 12,088 4,497 7,591 12,156 4,570 7,586 13,089 4,897 8,192
79 9,541 3,763 5,778 9,787 3,693 6,094 10,393 3,852 6,541 11,110 4,106 7,004 11,181 4,176 7,005
80+ 76,891 30,448 46,443 73,850 29,023 44,827 71,563 27,787 43,776 70,239 26,917 43,322 69,831 26,437 43,394
Total 10,730,761 5,175,336 5,555,425 10,978,626 5,301,274 5,677,352 11,225,544 5,426,645 5,798,899 11,470,865 5,551,145 5,919,720 11,713,994 5,674,491 6,039,503

93
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 302,090 152,750 149,340 298,094 150,738 147,356 293,514 148,432 145,082 296,978 150,201 146,777 300,458 151,978 148,480
1 302,136 152,577 149,559 298,971 150,981 147,990 295,220 149,093 146,127 290,846 146,912 143,934 294,440 148,763 145,677
2 303,166 153,044 150,122 300,660 151,772 148,888 297,618 150,235 147,383 293,966 148,407 145,559 289,690 146,285 143,405
3 303,989 153,395 150,594 302,102 152,447 149,655 299,679 151,215 148,464 296,703 149,719 146,984 293,118 147,932 145,186
4 304,431 153,556 150,875 303,167 152,926 150,241 301,341 152,008 149,333 298,966 150,807 148,159 296,040 149,340 146,700
5 304,325 153,444 150,881 303,764 153,169 150,595 302,547 152,561 149,986 300,759 151,668 149,091 298,423 150,490 147,933
6 302,284 150,573 151,711 303,763 153,111 150,652 303,240 152,855 150,385 302,053 152,266 149,787 300,297 151,392 148,905
7 301,097 149,927 151,170 301,795 150,284 151,511 303,302 152,833 150,469 302,804 152,592 150,212 301,645 152,020 149,625
8 300,211 149,449 150,762 300,664 149,671 150,993 301,388 150,040 151,348 302,913 152,598 150,315 302,437 152,371 150,066
9 299,478 149,054 150,424 299,825 149,224 150,601 300,300 149,456 150,844 301,041 149,836 151,205 302,582 152,402 150,180
10 298,858 148,724 150,134 299,137 148,860 150,277 299,502 149,038 150,464 299,992 149,280 150,712 300,749 149,668 151,081
11 311,702 155,122 156,580 298,552 148,555 149,997 298,847 148,698 150,149 299,226 148,884 150,342 299,729 149,133 150,596
12 309,496 153,987 155,509 311,401 154,958 156,443 298,278 148,404 149,874 298,586 148,555 150,031 298,976 148,747 150,229
13 304,176 151,235 152,941 309,192 153,820 155,372 311,110 154,798 156,312 298,012 148,257 149,755 298,332 148,414 149,918
14 295,632 146,787 148,845 303,849 151,051 152,798 308,875 153,641 155,234 310,804 154,625 156,179 297,732 148,099 149,633
15 284,329 140,879 143,450 295,267 146,577 148,690 303,490 150,843 152,647 308,524 153,437 155,087 310,466 154,427 156,039
16 271,361 134,093 137,268 283,926 140,642 143,284 294,865 146,338 148,527 303,092 150,606 152,486 308,135 153,205 154,930
17 258,382 127,316 131,066 270,930 133,835 137,095 283,491 140,380 143,111 294,429 146,074 148,355 302,660 150,343 152,317
18 247,281 121,563 125,718 257,930 127,042 130,888 270,472 133,556 136,916 283,029 140,097 142,932 293,965 145,789 148,176
19 239,285 117,491 121,794 246,809 121,275 125,534 257,455 126,749 130,706 269,991 133,258 136,733 282,542 139,794 142,748
20 233,698 114,712 118,986 238,790 117,185 121,605 246,317 120,969 125,348 256,959 126,440 130,519 269,488 132,943 136,545
21 228,489 112,189 116,300 233,182 114,390 118,792 238,280 116,866 121,414 245,809 120,650 125,159 256,446 126,117 130,329
22 222,899 109,445 113,454 227,958 111,858 116,100 232,658 114,063 118,595 237,764 116,543 121,221 245,294 120,327 124,967
23 218,112 106,979 111,133 222,365 109,115 113,250 227,430 111,531 115,899 232,137 113,740 118,397 237,250 116,224 121,026
24 214,142 104,742 109,400 217,580 106,655 110,925 221,840 108,794 113,046 226,912 111,214 115,698 231,627 113,427 118,200
25 210,790 102,707 108,083 213,614 104,426 109,188 217,061 106,343 110,718 221,330 108,487 112,843 226,408 110,910 115,498
26 207,796 100,785 107,011 210,266 102,398 107,868 213,101 104,122 108,979 216,557 106,044 110,513 220,834 108,192 112,642
27 204,874 98,998 105,876 207,273 100,482 106,791 209,755 102,100 107,655 212,600 103,829 108,771 216,066 105,755 110,311
28 201,859 97,414 104,445 204,351 98,698 105,653 206,762 100,187 106,575 209,255 101,810 107,445 212,111 103,544 108,567
29 198,562 96,030 102,532 201,335 97,114 104,221 203,840 98,403 105,437 206,262 99,898 106,364 208,766 101,526 107,240
30 194,945 94,715 100,230 198,038 95,729 102,309 200,823 96,819 104,004 203,338 98,114 105,224 205,772 99,614 106,158
31 191,151 93,388 97,763 194,420 94,412 100,008 197,525 95,432 102,093 200,320 96,529 103,791 202,847 97,829 105,018
32 187,092 91,813 95,279 190,627 93,083 97,544 193,906 94,114 99,792 197,020 95,140 101,880 199,826 96,243 103,583
33 182,448 89,748 92,700 186,569 91,508 95,061 190,112 92,784 97,328 193,401 93,821 99,580 196,525 94,854 101,671
34 177,084 87,034 90,050 181,928 89,445 92,483 186,055 91,209 94,846 189,607 92,490 97,117 192,905 93,533 99,372
35 171,028 83,755 87,273 176,570 86,736 89,834 181,418 89,148 92,270 185,552 90,916 94,636 189,112 92,202 96,910
36 165,106 80,520 84,586 170,522 83,463 87,059 176,066 86,443 89,623 180,917 88,856 92,061 185,058 90,628 94,430
37 158,814 77,136 81,678 164,604 80,233 84,371 170,022 83,175 86,847 175,566 86,154 89,412 180,421 88,568 91,853
38 150,778 72,790 77,988 158,313 76,852 81,461 164,102 79,947 84,155 169,521 82,887 86,634 175,065 85,865 89,200
39 140,529 67,245 73,284 150,277 72,511 77,766 157,805 76,567 81,238 163,592 79,659 83,933 169,011 82,598 86,413
40 128,885 60,957 67,928 140,033 66,975 73,058 149,764 72,229 77,535 157,283 76,277 81,006 163,069 79,367 83,702

94
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 116,477 54,224 62,253 128,401 60,699 67,702 139,524 66,701 72,823 149,235 71,942 77,293 156,745 75,983 80,762
42 105,014 48,025 56,989 116,015 53,983 62,032 127,907 60,437 67,470 139,002 66,421 72,581 148,694 71,650 77,044
43 96,019 43,295 52,724 104,577 47,802 56,775 115,546 53,739 61,807 127,405 60,172 67,233 138,472 66,139 72,333
44 90,505 40,626 49,879 95,605 43,085 52,520 104,139 47,577 56,562 115,075 53,493 61,582 126,900 59,905 66,995
45 87,617 39,502 48,115 90,103 40,422 49,681 95,193 42,875 52,318 103,702 47,351 56,351 114,606 53,247 61,359
46 85,818 38,998 46,820 87,215 39,296 47,919 89,701 40,216 49,485 94,780 42,663 52,117 103,265 47,123 56,142
47 83,714 38,281 45,433 85,405 38,783 46,622 86,806 39,085 47,721 89,292 40,006 49,286 94,360 42,446 51,914
48 81,166 37,276 43,890 83,283 38,055 45,228 84,977 38,559 46,418 86,383 38,865 47,518 88,869 39,787 49,082
49 77,634 35,658 41,976 80,711 37,035 43,676 82,827 37,815 45,012 84,524 38,322 46,202 85,935 38,632 47,303
50 73,511 33,652 39,859 77,154 35,404 41,750 80,223 36,776 43,447 82,339 37,557 44,782 84,039 38,066 45,973
51 69,220 31,574 37,646 73,011 33,387 39,624 76,641 35,131 41,510 79,702 36,499 43,203 81,817 37,279 44,538
52 65,683 29,892 35,791 68,709 31,303 37,406 72,484 33,106 39,378 76,099 34,841 41,258 79,152 36,204 42,948
53 63,522 28,816 34,706 65,164 29,618 35,546 68,178 31,022 37,156 71,935 32,815 39,120 75,536 34,541 40,995
54 63,177 28,542 34,635 62,994 28,537 34,457 64,633 29,337 35,296 67,634 30,734 36,900 71,375 32,516 38,859
55 64,031 28,800 35,231 62,628 28,254 34,374 62,458 28,255 34,203 64,095 29,053 35,042 67,084 30,441 36,643
56 65,554 29,351 36,203 63,448 28,496 34,952 62,069 27,961 34,108 61,913 27,968 33,945 63,548 28,763 34,785
57 66,466 29,634 36,832 64,921 29,022 35,899 62,848 28,183 34,665 61,494 27,660 33,834 61,352 27,672 33,680
58 65,716 29,196 36,520 65,774 29,277 36,497 64,259 28,679 35,580 62,220 27,855 34,365 60,894 27,345 33,549
59 62,587 27,724 34,863 64,969 28,811 36,158 65,041 28,898 36,143 63,558 28,315 35,243 61,556 27,508 34,048
60 57,747 25,509 32,238 61,804 27,322 34,482 64,172 28,401 35,771 64,260 28,494 35,766 62,810 27,926 34,884
61 52,320 23,035 29,285 56,950 25,102 31,848 60,967 26,893 34,074 63,320 27,962 35,358 63,425 28,061 35,364
62 47,400 20,784 26,616 51,524 22,630 28,894 56,100 24,668 31,432 60,075 26,435 33,640 62,413 27,495 34,918
63 43,200 18,864 24,336 46,608 20,384 26,224 50,679 22,201 28,478 55,197 24,208 30,989 59,128 25,951 33,177
64 40,159 17,470 22,689 42,408 18,467 23,941 45,768 19,961 25,807 49,782 21,748 28,034 54,240 23,722 30,518
65 37,943 16,449 21,494 39,350 17,068 22,282 41,568 18,049 23,519 44,878 19,516 25,362 48,833 21,271 27,562
66 36,025 15,575 20,450 37,104 16,036 21,068 38,494 16,646 21,848 40,680 17,609 23,071 43,937 19,047 24,890
67 33,824 14,572 19,252 35,148 15,147 20,001 36,215 15,602 20,613 37,588 16,202 21,386 39,740 17,146 22,594
68 31,210 13,352 17,858 32,917 14,134 18,783 34,219 14,698 19,521 35,275 15,146 20,129 36,630 15,735 20,895
69 27,984 11,815 16,169 30,288 12,913 17,375 31,959 13,676 18,283 33,241 14,228 19,013 34,285 14,668 19,617
70 24,435 10,108 14,327 27,074 11,390 15,684 29,317 12,455 16,862 30,952 13,197 17,755 32,212 13,736 18,476
71 20,790 8,359 12,431 23,560 9,710 13,850 26,117 10,947 15,170 28,298 11,977 16,321 29,894 12,697 17,197
72 17,623 6,849 10,774 19,970 7,998 11,972 22,642 9,296 13,346 25,115 10,486 14,629 27,231 11,479 15,752
73 15,386 5,787 9,599 16,857 6,523 10,334 19,112 7,623 11,489 21,684 8,866 12,818 24,070 10,007 14,063
74 14,331 5,294 9,037 14,649 5,484 9,165 16,059 6,187 9,872 18,220 7,234 10,986 20,688 8,419 12,269
75 14,077 5,192 8,885 13,574 4,989 8,585 13,884 5,172 8,712 15,233 5,839 9,394 17,297 6,832 10,465
76 14,210 5,264 8,946 13,257 4,863 8,394 12,793 4,676 8,117 13,097 4,851 8,246 14,382 5,481 8,901
77 14,117 5,241 8,876 13,295 4,896 8,399 12,414 4,527 7,887 11,992 4,357 7,635 12,290 4,524 7,766
78 13,469 5,010 8,459 13,113 4,839 8,274 12,361 4,524 7,837 11,555 4,187 7,368 11,175 4,033 7,142
79 12,050 4,480 7,570 12,410 4,587 7,823 12,093 4,434 7,659 11,414 4,150 7,264 10,683 3,844 6,839
80+ 69,611 26,122 43,489 70,277 26,157 44,120 71,242 26,310 44,932 71,877 26,326 45,551 71,899 26,107 45,792
Total 11,954,132 5,796,265 6,157,867 12,190,637 5,916,114 6,274,523 12,422,805 6,033,716 6,389,089 12,658,536 6,153,127 6,505,409 12,897,778 6,274,286 6,623,492

95
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 303,804 153,686 150,118 307,004 155,320 151,684 310,100 156,902 153,198 313,017 158,393 154,624 315,679 159,756 155,923
1 298,033 150,612 147,421 301,497 152,394 149,103 304,819 154,105 150,714 308,040 155,766 152,274 311,086 157,339 153,747
2 293,342 148,173 145,169 296,994 150,058 146,936 300,518 151,879 148,639 303,902 153,629 150,273 307,188 155,331 151,857
3 288,903 145,847 143,056 292,593 147,759 144,834 296,285 149,670 146,615 299,850 151,516 148,334 303,278 153,294 149,984
4 292,500 147,581 144,919 288,330 145,523 142,807 292,049 147,453 144,596 295,770 149,383 146,387 299,367 151,249 148,118
5 295,532 149,045 146,487 292,027 147,306 144,721 287,891 145,270 142,621 291,634 147,215 144,419 295,379 149,160 146,219
6 297,989 150,232 147,757 295,126 148,805 146,321 291,650 147,084 144,566 287,544 145,066 142,478 291,306 147,023 144,283
7 299,911 151,161 148,750 297,628 150,015 147,613 294,789 148,604 146,185 291,338 146,898 144,440 287,256 144,895 142,361
8 301,297 151,812 149,485 299,584 150,965 148,619 297,321 149,832 147,489 294,504 148,433 146,071 291,073 146,741 144,332
9 302,123 152,185 149,938 301,000 151,636 149,364 299,305 150,800 148,505 297,059 149,678 147,381 294,260 148,290 145,970
10 302,301 152,240 150,061 301,856 152,031 149,825 300,747 151,491 149,256 299,067 150,663 148,404 296,837 149,551 147,286
11 300,496 149,528 150,968 302,059 152,104 149,955 301,626 151,902 149,724 300,530 151,369 149,161 298,863 150,549 148,314
12 299,490 149,002 150,488 300,267 149,403 150,864 301,840 151,983 149,857 301,418 151,787 149,631 300,333 151,261 149,072
13 298,732 148,613 150,119 299,256 148,873 150,383 300,043 149,279 150,764 301,625 151,863 149,762 301,214 151,674 149,540
14 298,062 148,262 149,800 298,473 148,466 150,007 299,008 148,732 150,276 299,806 149,144 150,662 301,397 151,732 149,665
15 297,419 147,916 149,503 297,761 148,086 149,675 298,184 148,296 149,888 298,730 148,569 150,161 299,539 148,987 150,552
16 310,087 154,200 155,887 297,070 147,706 149,364 297,424 147,883 149,541 297,859 148,100 149,759 298,417 148,380 150,037
17 307,710 152,946 154,764 309,674 153,948 155,726 296,688 147,472 149,216 297,056 147,656 149,400 297,504 147,881 149,623
18 302,198 150,058 152,140 307,256 152,664 154,592 309,233 153,674 155,559 296,280 147,218 149,062 296,662 147,409 149,253
19 293,476 145,483 147,993 301,711 149,753 151,958 306,777 152,363 154,414 308,767 153,380 155,387 295,850 146,945 148,905
20 282,032 139,473 142,559 292,962 145,159 147,803 301,200 149,429 151,771 306,276 152,044 154,232 308,281 153,069 155,212
21 268,967 132,614 136,353 281,504 139,138 142,366 292,432 144,821 147,611 300,673 149,092 151,581 305,759 151,713 154,046
22 255,926 125,790 130,136 268,438 132,280 136,158 280,968 138,798 142,170 291,894 144,479 147,415 300,140 148,752 151,388
23 244,780 120,007 124,773 255,407 125,465 129,942 267,911 131,949 135,962 280,436 138,463 141,973 291,360 144,141 147,219
24 236,744 115,914 120,830 244,276 119,697 124,579 254,898 125,151 129,747 267,395 131,629 135,766 279,914 138,139 141,775
25 231,129 113,126 118,003 236,252 115,616 120,636 243,784 119,399 124,385 254,402 124,850 129,552 266,894 131,323 135,571
26 225,917 110,617 115,300 230,644 112,837 117,807 235,773 115,330 120,443 243,307 119,113 124,194 253,922 124,561 129,361
27 220,349 107,906 112,443 225,437 110,334 115,103 230,170 112,558 117,612 235,306 115,053 120,253 242,843 118,837 124,006
28 215,585 105,473 110,112 219,874 107,627 112,247 224,967 110,058 114,909 229,708 112,286 117,422 234,850 114,785 120,065
29 211,631 103,263 108,368 215,113 105,196 109,917 219,408 107,354 112,054 224,508 109,788 114,720 229,256 112,020 117,236
30 208,286 101,246 107,040 211,160 102,987 108,173 214,649 104,924 109,725 218,952 107,085 111,867 224,058 109,523 114,535
31 205,290 99,333 105,957 207,813 100,969 106,844 210,696 102,715 107,981 214,194 104,656 109,538 218,505 106,821 111,684
32 202,362 97,548 104,814 204,815 99,056 105,759 207,348 100,697 106,651 210,241 102,447 107,794 213,748 104,392 109,356
33 199,340 95,961 103,379 201,886 97,271 104,615 204,349 98,784 105,565 206,892 100,429 106,463 209,795 102,183 107,612
34 196,038 94,572 101,466 198,862 95,684 103,178 201,418 96,999 104,419 203,891 98,517 105,374 206,444 100,166 106,278
35 192,418 93,251 99,167 195,559 94,294 101,265 198,393 95,413 102,980 200,958 96,732 104,226 203,442 98,255 105,187
36 188,625 91,919 96,706 191,938 92,973 98,965 195,088 94,022 101,066 197,931 95,146 102,785 200,507 96,471 104,036
37 184,566 90,342 94,224 188,140 91,638 96,502 191,462 92,697 98,765 194,620 93,752 100,868 197,474 94,882 102,592
38 179,923 88,280 91,643 184,072 90,057 94,015 187,653 91,358 96,295 190,983 92,423 98,560 194,151 93,484 100,667
39 174,555 85,575 88,980 179,414 87,990 91,424 183,569 89,770 93,799 187,157 91,076 96,081 190,496 92,147 98,349
40 168,486 82,305 86,181 174,028 85,279 88,749 178,890 87,695 91,195 183,050 89,479 93,571 186,647 90,789 95,858

96
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 162,527 79,070 83,457 167,943 82,005 85,938 173,485 84,978 88,507 178,349 87,395 90,954 182,515 89,182 93,333
42 156,193 75,683 80,510 161,971 78,767 83,204 167,385 81,700 85,685 172,926 84,671 88,255 177,793 87,089 90,704
43 148,143 71,353 76,790 155,630 75,379 80,251 161,404 78,459 82,945 166,817 81,390 85,427 172,358 84,359 87,999
44 137,939 65,853 72,086 147,588 71,053 76,535 155,063 75,071 79,992 160,834 78,147 82,687 166,245 81,076 85,169
45 126,396 59,636 66,760 137,404 65,565 71,839 147,032 70,750 76,282 154,495 74,760 79,735 160,262 77,833 82,429
46 114,134 52,997 61,137 125,888 59,363 66,525 136,867 65,273 71,594 146,472 70,444 76,028 153,924 74,445 79,479
47 102,818 46,889 55,929 113,653 52,740 60,913 125,370 59,083 66,287 136,319 64,973 71,346 145,901 70,128 75,773
48 93,924 42,219 51,705 102,354 46,644 55,710 113,151 52,471 60,680 124,831 58,789 66,042 135,747 64,657 71,090
49 88,420 39,553 48,867 93,460 41,976 51,484 101,860 46,382 55,478 112,617 52,183 60,434 124,256 58,474 65,782
50 85,454 38,379 47,075 87,936 39,300 48,636 92,960 41,712 51,248 101,327 46,097 55,230 112,041 51,870 60,171
51 83,518 37,790 45,728 84,936 38,106 46,830 87,416 39,026 48,390 92,422 41,427 50,995 100,753 45,789 54,964
52 81,265 36,984 44,281 82,966 37,496 45,470 84,388 37,816 46,572 86,864 38,734 48,130 91,852 41,124 50,728
53 78,579 35,897 42,682 80,689 36,676 44,013 82,391 37,190 45,201 83,816 37,512 46,304 86,289 38,429 47,860
54 74,959 34,231 40,728 77,991 35,582 42,409 80,098 36,359 43,739 81,802 36,875 44,927 83,230 37,200 46,030
55 70,805 32,212 38,593 74,373 33,917 40,456 77,394 35,261 42,133 79,499 36,038 43,461 81,204 36,555 44,649
56 66,523 30,144 36,379 70,225 31,902 38,323 73,777 33,597 40,180 76,786 34,934 41,852 78,889 35,710 43,179
57 62,984 28,465 34,519 65,944 29,836 36,108 69,627 31,583 38,044 73,161 33,267 39,894 76,160 34,597 41,563
58 60,764 27,363 33,401 62,393 28,152 34,241 65,338 29,514 35,824 69,000 31,248 37,752 72,517 32,920 39,597
59 60,256 27,010 33,246 60,141 27,033 33,108 61,765 27,818 33,947 64,694 29,170 35,524 68,335 30,890 37,445
60 60,846 27,136 33,710 59,574 26,650 32,924 59,473 26,679 32,794 61,093 27,460 33,633 64,004 28,801 35,203
61 62,009 27,508 34,501 60,084 26,737 33,347 58,842 26,264 32,578 58,756 26,299 32,457 60,372 27,075 33,297
62 62,532 27,599 34,933 61,152 27,062 34,090 59,269 26,310 32,959 58,059 25,851 32,208 57,989 25,891 32,098
63 61,446 26,998 34,448 61,581 27,107 34,474 60,238 26,586 33,652 58,400 25,854 32,546 57,223 25,410 31,813
64 58,120 25,437 32,683 60,417 26,470 33,947 60,568 26,585 33,983 59,266 26,082 33,184 57,474 25,371 32,103
65 53,224 23,208 30,016 57,050 24,893 32,157 59,324 25,912 33,412 59,491 26,032 33,459 58,231 25,547 32,684
66 47,826 20,766 27,060 52,144 22,664 29,480 55,913 24,317 31,596 58,162 25,321 32,841 58,346 25,446 32,900
67 42,938 18,552 24,386 46,757 20,233 26,524 50,998 22,090 28,908 54,704 23,709 30,995 56,927 24,696 32,231
68 38,744 16,657 22,087 41,880 18,030 23,850 45,623 19,671 25,952 49,781 21,484 28,297 53,422 23,067 30,355
69 35,618 15,244 20,374 37,690 16,144 21,546 40,759 17,481 23,278 44,422 19,079 25,343 48,494 20,846 27,648
70 33,240 14,167 19,073 34,550 14,730 19,820 36,578 15,606 20,972 39,576 16,906 22,670 43,154 18,460 24,694
71 31,128 13,222 17,906 32,140 13,643 18,497 33,425 14,192 19,233 35,407 15,043 20,364 38,330 16,304 22,026
72 28,784 12,176 16,608 29,991 12,686 17,305 30,984 13,096 17,888 32,242 13,630 18,612 34,174 14,455 19,719
73 26,114 10,961 15,153 27,621 11,632 15,989 28,797 12,126 16,671 29,771 12,525 17,246 30,999 13,042 17,957
74 22,979 9,508 13,471 24,947 10,420 14,527 26,405 11,065 15,340 27,549 11,542 16,007 28,501 11,928 16,573
75 19,653 7,956 11,697 21,845 8,991 12,854 23,733 9,860 13,873 25,139 10,476 14,663 26,249 10,934 15,315
76 16,342 6,418 9,924 18,582 7,478 11,104 20,670 8,457 12,213 22,474 9,280 13,194 23,826 9,867 13,959
77 13,506 5,114 8,392 15,359 5,993 9,366 17,478 6,988 10,490 19,458 7,908 11,550 21,174 8,683 12,491
78 11,463 4,190 7,273 12,608 4,741 7,867 14,351 5,559 8,792 16,344 6,488 9,856 18,212 7,347 10,865
79 10,344 3,706 6,638 10,621 3,854 6,767 11,693 4,364 7,329 13,321 5,121 8,200 15,186 5,981 9,205
80+ 71,337 25,665 45,672 70,632 25,185 45,447 70,370 24,933 45,437 71,217 25,205 46,012 73,531 26,151 47,380
Total 13,140,148 6,397,013 6,743,135 13,385,470 6,521,197 6,864,273 13,633,585 6,646,779 6,986,806 13,884,233 6,773,614 7,110,619 14,137,063 6,901,529 7,235,534

97
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0 317,663 160,772 156,891 319,010 161,465 157,545 319,956 161,952 158,004 320,443 162,198 158,245 320,442 162,197 158,245
1 313,844 158,762 155,082 315,930 159,842 156,088 317,370 160,588 156,782 318,385 161,103 157,282 318,943 161,377 157,566
2 310,282 156,934 153,348 313,090 158,389 154,701 315,220 159,494 155,726 316,691 160,250 156,441 317,738 160,776 156,962
3 306,595 155,015 151,580 309,722 156,639 153,083 312,558 158,110 154,448 314,709 159,222 155,487 316,201 159,987 156,214
4 302,817 153,041 149,776 306,158 154,777 151,381 309,306 156,413 152,893 312,157 157,889 154,268 314,323 159,007 155,316
5 298,993 151,037 147,956 302,462 152,841 149,621 305,819 154,586 151,233 308,977 156,226 152,751 311,840 157,707 154,133
6 295,065 148,977 146,088 298,694 150,863 147,831 302,175 152,674 149,501 305,541 154,423 151,118 308,709 156,066 152,643
7 291,030 146,860 144,170 294,801 148,822 145,979 298,441 150,714 147,727 301,930 152,528 149,402 305,303 154,279 151,024
8 287,009 144,749 142,260 290,792 146,719 144,073 294,573 148,686 145,887 298,219 150,581 147,638 301,714 152,397 149,317
9 290,844 146,607 144,237 286,794 144,623 142,171 290,585 146,598 143,987 294,371 148,566 145,805 298,022 150,463 147,559
10 294,049 148,170 145,879 290,646 146,493 144,153 286,607 144,516 142,091 290,403 146,493 143,910 294,193 148,463 145,730
11 296,643 149,442 147,201 293,866 148,067 145,799 290,472 146,396 144,076 286,442 144,423 142,019 290,242 146,401 143,841
12 298,675 150,446 148,229 296,465 149,344 147,121 293,697 147,974 145,723 290,311 146,307 144,004 286,289 144,337 141,952
13 300,139 151,152 148,987 298,489 150,343 148,146 296,288 149,246 147,042 293,527 147,879 145,648 290,149 146,215 143,934
14 300,994 151,548 149,446 299,928 151,031 148,897 298,288 150,226 148,062 296,094 149,133 146,961 293,342 147,771 145,571
15 301,137 151,577 149,560 300,744 151,398 149,346 299,687 150,887 148,800 298,056 150,086 147,970 295,871 148,997 146,874
16 299,236 148,803 150,433 300,841 151,395 149,446 300,458 151,221 149,237 299,410 150,715 148,695 297,789 149,919 147,870
17 298,072 148,166 149,906 298,900 148,594 150,306 300,513 151,188 149,325 300,139 151,020 149,119 299,102 150,518 148,584
18 297,121 147,640 149,481 297,700 147,931 149,769 298,537 148,365 150,172 300,157 150,960 149,197 299,794 150,797 148,997
19 296,243 147,144 149,099 296,714 147,381 149,333 297,303 147,678 149,625 298,151 148,116 150,035 299,778 150,714 149,064
20 295,396 146,655 148,741 295,802 146,861 148,941 296,285 147,105 149,180 296,885 147,407 149,478 297,743 147,851 149,892
21 307,775 152,744 155,031 294,925 146,352 148,573 295,344 146,565 148,779 295,838 146,815 149,023 296,450 147,124 149,326
22 305,231 151,375 153,856 307,259 152,413 154,846 294,445 146,043 148,402 294,876 146,262 148,614 295,382 146,519 148,863
23 299,606 148,413 151,193 304,704 151,040 153,664 306,743 152,084 154,659 293,964 145,735 148,229 294,408 145,961 148,447
24 290,834 143,813 147,021 299,080 148,084 150,996 304,184 150,713 153,471 306,233 151,763 154,470 293,489 145,434 148,055
25 279,404 137,826 141,578 290,318 143,495 146,823 298,565 147,766 150,799 303,674 150,397 153,277 305,735 151,452 154,283
26 266,404 131,028 135,376 278,906 137,524 141,382 289,815 143,190 146,625 298,062 147,458 150,604 303,176 150,092 153,084
27 253,451 124,281 129,170 265,924 130,741 135,183 278,417 137,231 141,186 289,321 142,892 146,429 297,568 147,159 150,409
28 242,386 118,568 123,818 252,988 124,006 128,982 265,452 130,460 134,992 277,936 136,943 140,993 288,835 142,599 146,236
29 234,401 114,520 119,881 241,935 118,302 123,633 252,531 123,735 128,796 264,986 130,182 134,804 277,462 136,658 140,804
30 228,809 111,756 117,053 233,958 114,258 119,700 241,491 118,038 123,453 252,080 123,466 128,614 264,525 129,905 134,620
31 223,613 109,259 114,354 228,368 111,494 116,874 233,520 113,997 119,523 241,051 117,775 123,276 251,633 123,197 128,436
32 218,062 106,558 111,504 223,173 108,997 114,176 227,932 111,234 116,698 233,086 113,737 119,349 240,615 117,512 123,103
33 213,307 104,130 109,177 217,625 106,298 111,327 222,738 108,738 114,000 227,499 110,975 116,524 232,656 113,479 119,177
34 209,353 101,923 107,430 212,870 103,871 108,999 217,192 106,040 111,152 222,307 108,481 113,826 227,072 110,719 116,353
35 206,002 99,906 106,096 208,917 101,665 107,252 212,439 103,616 108,823 216,764 105,785 110,979 221,882 108,226 113,656
36 202,998 97,995 105,003 205,565 99,650 105,915 208,486 101,411 107,075 212,012 103,362 108,650 216,340 105,532 110,808
37 200,057 96,210 103,847 202,554 97,737 104,817 205,128 99,394 105,734 208,054 101,156 106,898 211,585 103,109 108,476
38 197,011 94,617 102,394 199,601 95,948 103,653 202,105 97,478 104,627 204,684 99,136 105,548 207,616 100,900 106,716
39 193,670 93,211 100,459 196,536 94,348 102,188 199,133 95,682 103,451 201,643 97,214 104,429 204,229 98,874 105,355
40 189,991 91,864 98,127 193,170 92,933 100,237 196,042 94,073 101,969 198,645 95,410 103,235 201,162 96,943 104,219

98
 Table 33: Projection of the total population 2012-2032 by single age according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)

Single 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
41 186,115 90,496 95,619 189,464 91,574 97,890 192,648 92,646 100,002 195,526 93,790 101,736 198,136 95,129 103,007
42 181,960 88,877 93,083 185,564 90,194 95,370 188,918 91,276 97,642 192,107 92,352 99,755 194,992 93,498 101,494
43 177,223 86,776 90,447 181,391 88,565 92,826 184,999 89,885 95,114 188,357 90,970 97,387 191,551 92,049 99,502
44 171,780 84,041 87,739 176,643 86,456 90,187 180,813 88,247 92,566 184,423 89,568 94,855 187,786 90,657 97,129
45 165,667 80,757 84,910 171,197 83,718 87,479 176,058 86,131 89,927 180,228 87,922 92,306 183,842 89,246 94,596
46 159,683 77,512 82,171 165,082 80,431 84,651 170,606 83,388 87,218 175,464 85,799 89,665 179,635 87,590 92,045
47 153,337 74,118 79,219 159,086 77,179 81,907 164,479 80,093 84,386 169,997 83,044 86,953 174,852 85,453 89,399
48 145,301 69,795 75,506 152,719 73,772 78,947 158,459 76,826 81,633 163,844 79,734 84,110 169,355 82,680 86,675
49 135,133 64,317 70,816 144,656 69,434 75,222 152,055 73,398 78,657 157,784 76,444 81,340 163,161 79,345 83,816
50 123,630 58,128 65,502 134,465 63,944 70,521 143,954 69,038 74,916 151,331 72,988 78,343 157,048 76,025 81,023
51 111,416 51,528 59,888 122,952 57,752 65,200 133,739 63,536 70,203 143,191 68,606 74,585 150,545 72,540 78,005
52 100,141 45,458 54,683 110,749 51,161 59,588 122,227 57,348 64,879 132,964 63,100 69,864 142,377 68,144 74,233
53 91,254 40,805 50,449 99,499 45,110 54,389 110,050 50,776 59,274 121,468 56,924 64,544 132,154 62,642 69,512
54 85,697 38,114 47,583 90,638 40,475 50,163 98,837 44,752 54,085 109,330 50,380 58,950 120,687 56,488 64,199
55 82,633 36,882 45,751 85,092 37,793 47,299 90,010 40,139 49,871 98,164 44,387 53,777 108,598 49,977 58,621
56 80,592 36,227 44,365 82,022 36,557 45,465 84,475 37,465 47,010 89,369 39,797 49,572 97,478 44,016 53,462
57 78,257 35,371 42,886 79,958 35,888 44,070 81,389 36,219 45,170 83,837 37,125 46,712 88,706 39,443 49,263
58 75,500 34,242 41,258 77,591 35,012 42,579 79,290 35,529 43,761 80,723 35,864 44,859 83,165 36,768 46,397
59 71,828 32,549 39,279 74,795 33,861 40,934 76,879 34,628 42,251 78,578 35,147 43,431 80,013 35,485 44,528
60 67,617 30,504 37,113 71,086 32,147 38,939 74,035 33,449 40,586 76,113 34,215 41,898 77,810 34,734 43,076
61 63,260 28,402 34,858 66,843 30,087 36,756 70,285 31,714 38,571 73,216 33,005 40,211 75,288 33,769 41,519
62 59,595 26,660 32,935 62,459 27,972 34,487 66,009 29,638 36,371 69,424 31,248 38,176 72,336 32,529 39,807
63 57,167 25,455 31,712 58,762 26,216 32,546 61,599 27,513 34,086 65,116 29,159 35,957 68,501 30,752 37,749
64 56,329 24,940 31,389 56,285 24,989 31,296 57,870 25,743 32,127 60,680 27,024 33,656 64,162 28,649 35,513
65 56,484 24,856 31,628 55,372 24,440 30,932 55,343 24,494 30,849 56,917 25,241 31,676 59,698 26,505 33,193
66 57,125 24,978 32,147 55,425 24,308 31,117 54,349 23,907 30,442 54,338 23,969 30,369 55,900 24,708 31,192
67 57,123 24,824 32,299 55,943 24,373 31,570 54,295 23,727 30,568 53,258 23,344 29,914 53,265 23,413 29,852
68 55,609 24,033 31,576 55,819 24,165 31,654 54,684 23,733 30,951 53,092 23,113 29,979 52,097 22,749 29,348
69 52,057 22,389 29,668 54,208 23,334 30,874 54,431 23,469 30,962 53,345 23,060 30,285 51,813 22,467 29,346
70 47,127 20,175 26,952 50,610 21,675 28,935 52,721 22,598 30,123 52,962 22,741 30,221 51,928 22,355 29,573
71 41,812 17,808 24,004 45,680 19,470 26,210 49,077 20,926 28,151 51,149 21,829 29,320 51,407 21,978 29,429
72 37,011 15,672 21,339 40,392 17,125 23,267 44,150 18,731 25,419 47,458 20,143 27,315 49,488 21,024 28,464
73 32,873 13,837 19,036 35,620 15,009 20,611 38,894 16,407 22,487 42,536 17,958 24,578 45,750 19,324 26,426
74 29,693 12,426 17,267 31,504 13,189 18,315 34,156 14,314 19,842 37,318 15,659 21,659 40,840 17,150 23,690
75 27,171 11,306 15,865 28,323 11,783 16,540 30,070 12,514 17,556 32,623 13,590 19,033 35,668 14,878 20,790
76 24,892 10,303 14,589 25,783 10,658 15,125 26,894 11,115 15,779 28,574 11,814 16,760 31,024 12,841 18,183
77 22,462 9,237 13,225 23,484 9,651 13,833 24,341 9,990 14,351 25,412 10,428 14,984 27,021 11,093 15,928
78 19,832 8,072 11,760 21,053 8,592 12,461 22,028 8,983 13,045 22,853 9,308 13,545 23,879 9,725 14,154
79 16,934 6,777 10,157 18,454 7,451 11,003 19,606 7,936 11,670 20,534 8,306 12,228 21,324 8,616 12,708
80+ 77,306 27,761 49,545 82,236 29,880 52,356 87,966 32,332 55,634 94,071 34,912 59,159 100,307 37,503 62,804
Total 14,390,838 7,029,902 7,360,936 14,644,828 7,158,364 7,486,464 14,898,528 7,286,658 7,611,870 15,151,387 7,414,476 7,736,911 15,402,934 7,541,570 7,861,364

99
 Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario
5 year age 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
group Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0-4 1,542,363 771,368 770,995 1,559,592 781,939 777,653 1,584,188 796,240 787,948 1,615,917 814,157 801,760 1,654,552 835,563 818,989
5-9 1,531,038 762,056 768,982 1,532,606 763,118 769,487 1,526,328 760,099 766,229 1,515,536 754,747 760,790 1,503,581 748,810 754,770
10-14 1,310,113 646,675 663,438 1,364,283 674,724 689,559 1,419,111 703,232 715,879 1,468,254 728,814 739,440 1,506,714 748,820 757,894
15-19 1,129,937 555,677 574,259 1,152,271 566,740 585,531 1,178,738 579,696 599,042 1,211,644 596,017 615,628 1,252,062 616,454 635,608
20-24 1,037,836 504,153 533,683 1,050,487 511,204 539,283 1,063,850 519,110 544,740 1,079,025 527,891 551,135 1,096,908 537,619 559,289
25-29 946,509 464,622 481,887 965,145 471,991 493,154 981,701 478,024 503,678 996,645 483,591 513,054 1,010,485 489,394 521,091
30-34 799,059 388,671 410,388 833,180 407,144 426,035 862,271 422,675 439,596 887,883 435,852 452,031 911,217 447,177 464,040
35-39 547,391 252,600 294,791 595,676 278,398 317,279 648,507 306,944 341,563 700,130 334,932 365,198 746,357 359,941 386,416
40-44 426,239 195,008 231,230 436,953 198,844 238,109 449,709 203,781 245,928 468,969 212,492 256,477 497,572 226,688 270,885
45-49 346,485 158,445 188,040 358,497 164,287 194,210 373,812 171,529 202,283 389,548 178,714 210,834 403,873 184,948 218,925
50-54 339,862 152,743 187,119 336,819 151,703 185,116 331,188 149,555 181,633 327,284 148,199 179,086 328,114 148,945 179,169
55-59 257,481 114,133 143,348 276,857 122,863 153,994 296,134 131,564 164,570 311,726 138,652 173,075 321,369 143,136 178,234
60-64 185,854 81,031 104,823 194,258 84,893 109,365 202,387 88,532 113,856 212,152 92,872 119,280 224,662 98,454 126,208
65-69 109,768 43,935 65,834 120,742 49,463 71,279 133,624 55,840 77,785 146,345 62,036 84,309 157,586 67,407 90,179
70-74 90,401 34,394 56,007 87,138 32,923 54,214 83,971 31,629 52,343 83,115 31,481 51,635 85,840 33,017 52,822
75-79 61,440 23,417 38,023 64,308 24,279 40,029 67,202 25,280 41,923 68,884 25,840 43,044 68,853 25,730 43,123
80 + 76,880 30,444 46,435 73,817 29,012 44,805 71,499 27,766 43,733 70,134 26,883 43,251 69,676 26,388 43,287
Total 10,738,655 5,179,373 5,559,283 11,002,628 5,313,527 5,689,101 11,274,221 5,451,495 5,822,726 11,553,192 5,593,167 5,960,025 11,839,419 5,738,490 6,100,929

5 year age 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

group Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0-4 1,691,239 854,250 836,989 1,727,453 872,715 854,738 1,763,418 891,068 872,350 1,799,337 909,410 889,927 1,835,403 927,832 907,571
5-9 1,514,244 756,037 758,207 1,532,478 767,108 765,371 1,557,982 781,873 776,109 1,590,532 800,221 790,310 1,629,882 822,023 807,858
10-14 1,519,433 755,699 763,735 1,521,517 757,029 764,488 1,515,769 754,289 761,480 1,505,498 749,213 756,284 1,494,030 743,540 750,490
15-19 1,300,346 641,237 659,109 1,354,447 669,226 685,221 1,409,205 697,673 711,531 1,458,320 723,221 735,099 1,496,826 743,239 753,587
20-24 1,117,040 547,949 569,092 1,139,461 559,045 580,416 1,165,978 572,020 593,959 1,198,878 588,329 610,549 1,239,225 608,717 630,508
25-29 1,023,557 495,808 527,750 1,036,396 502,947 533,449 1,049,936 510,934 539,003 1,065,266 519,788 545,479 1,083,275 529,582 553,693
30-34 932,391 456,574 475,817 951,126 464,011 487,115 967,818 470,142 497,676 982,920 475,821 507,099 996,931 481,736 515,195
35-39 785,941 381,334 404,607 819,844 399,641 420,203 848,819 415,075 433,745 874,386 428,210 446,177 897,721 439,535 458,186
40-44 536,657 247,042 289,615 584,276 272,423 311,853 636,375 300,513 335,862 687,318 328,078 359,240 732,994 352,748 380,246
45-49 415,743 189,639 226,105 426,431 193,490 232,941 439,121 198,421 240,700 458,178 207,041 251,136 486,378 221,021 265,356
50-54 334,927 152,403 182,523 346,774 158,153 188,621 361,807 165,247 196,561 377,244 172,284 204,960 391,317 178,405 212,912
55-59 324,128 144,622 179,507 321,440 143,753 177,686 316,291 141,843 174,448 312,800 140,690 172,110 313,837 141,536 172,300
60-64 240,601 105,583 135,018 258,972 113,795 145,177 277,238 121,977 155,261 292,032 128,658 163,374 301,236 132,918 168,318
65-69 166,771 71,693 95,078 174,505 75,204 99,302 182,046 78,545 103,500 191,109 82,539 108,571 202,686 87,660 115,027
70-74 92,393 36,347 56,046 101,856 41,032 60,824 112,882 46,403 66,480 123,750 51,617 72,134 133,378 56,152 77,226
75-79 67,743 25,135 42,607 65,415 24,110 41,305 63,248 23,257 39,991 62,901 23,291 39,610 65,302 24,597 40,706
80 + 69,390 26,054 43,335 69,973 26,067 43,906 70,832 26,194 44,638 71,308 26,183 45,125 71,123 25,935 45,188
Total 12,132,544 5,887,405 6,245,139 12,432,365 6,039,750 6,392,614 12,738,767 6,195,475 6,543,293 13,051,776 6,354,592 6,697,184 13,371,543 6,517,177 6,854,366

100
 Table 34: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year age 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
group Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0-4 1,871,585 946,268 925,317 1,907,747 964,704 943,043 1,943,905 983,148 960,757 1,979,902 1,001,518 978,383 2,015,415 1,019,654 995,761
5-9 1,667,259 841,062 826,197 1,704,166 859,886 844,280 1,740,807 878,596 862,211 1,777,358 897,280 880,078 1,813,964 916,002 897,962
10-14 1,505,017 750,916 754,100 1,523,514 762,108 761,407 1,549,230 776,969 772,261 1,581,943 795,392 786,551 1,621,404 817,245 804,160
15-19 1,509,739 750,206 759,533 1,512,082 751,666 760,417 1,506,640 749,085 757,555 1,496,696 744,186 752,510 1,485,556 738,693 746,863
20-24 1,287,365 633,397 653,968 1,341,265 661,243 680,022 1,395,816 689,540 706,276 1,444,778 714,969 729,809 1,483,230 734,932 748,299
25-29 1,103,508 539,966 563,542 1,126,001 551,103 574,898 1,152,542 564,088 588,454 1,185,394 580,361 605,033 1,225,612 600,657 624,954
30-34 1,010,180 488,247 521,933 1,023,189 495,469 527,720 1,036,879 503,519 533,360 1,052,331 512,419 539,912 1,070,424 522,242 548,182
35-39 918,940 448,964 469,976 937,755 456,462 481,293 954,552 462,672 491,880 969,774 468,431 501,343 983,908 474,417 509,491
40-44 772,174 373,886 398,288 805,800 392,011 413,789 834,600 407,324 427,276 860,060 420,384 439,676 883,329 431,666 451,662
45-49 524,839 241,015 283,824 571,663 265,923 305,739 622,891 293,485 329,406 673,010 320,544 352,466 717,998 344,786 373,212
50-54 403,019 183,036 219,983 413,595 186,862 226,733 426,141 191,744 234,397 444,895 200,210 244,686 472,553 213,875 258,678
55-59 320,593 144,955 175,637 332,165 150,548 181,617 346,788 157,415 189,373 361,800 164,223 197,578 375,515 170,154 205,361
60-64 303,990 134,393 169,597 301,671 133,691 167,980 297,087 132,036 165,050 294,096 131,099 162,997 295,385 132,032 163,353
65-69 217,375 94,163 123,212 234,266 101,627 132,638 251,042 109,048 141,994 264,650 115,107 149,543 273,175 118,985 154,190
70-74 141,299 59,797 81,502 148,056 62,818 85,238 154,728 65,726 89,002 162,778 69,208 93,570 173,033 73,656 99,377
75-79 70,597 27,231 43,366 78,068 30,852 47,216 86,690 34,957 51,733 95,173 38,923 56,250 102,726 42,375 60,351
80 + 70,320 25,461 44,859 69,368 24,947 44,421 68,844 24,656 44,188 69,400 24,881 44,519 71,375 25,766 45,609
Total 13,697,800 6,682,966 7,014,835 14,030,370 6,851,920 7,178,450 14,369,183 7,024,009 7,345,174 14,714,038 7,199,135 7,514,903 15,064,603 7,377,137 7,687,466

5 year age 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

group Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
0-4 2,049,763 1,037,180 1,012,583 2,082,456 1,053,842 1,028,614 2,113,304 1,069,546 1,043,758 2,142,154 1,084,219 1,057,935 2,168,909 1,097,819 1,071,090
5-9 1,850,593 934,739 915,853 1,887,200 953,472 933,728 1,923,790 972,199 951,592 1,960,192 990,828 969,364 1,996,048 1,009,172 986,876
10-14 1,658,880 836,348 822,532 1,695,885 855,234 840,651 1,732,621 874,003 858,618 1,769,258 892,737 876,521 1,805,936 911,498 894,438
15-19 1,496,706 746,150 750,556 1,515,320 757,394 757,925 1,541,104 772,279 768,825 1,573,837 790,694 783,143 1,613,269 812,506 800,763
20-24 1,496,293 741,971 754,322 1,498,879 743,562 755,317 1,493,745 741,154 752,591 1,484,141 736,446 747,695 1,473,339 731,143 742,196
25-29 1,273,534 625,189 648,345 1,327,156 652,846 674,310 1,381,425 680,949 700,476 1,430,164 706,219 723,945 1,468,496 726,084 742,412
30-34 1,090,707 532,642 558,066 1,113,218 543,778 569,440 1,139,727 556,733 582,994 1,172,473 572,929 599,544 1,212,502 593,094 619,408
35-39 997,270 480,983 516,287 1,010,382 488,241 522,142 1,024,158 496,309 527,848 1,039,663 505,209 534,455 1,057,772 515,011 542,761
40-44 904,508 441,081 463,426 923,320 448,595 474,725 940,141 454,837 485,304 955,401 460,629 494,772 969,577 466,637 502,940
45-49 756,642 365,585 391,056 789,858 383,445 406,413 818,357 398,559 419,798 843,585 411,467 432,118 866,662 422,629 444,033
50-54 510,183 233,365 276,818 555,930 257,605 298,324 605,947 284,407 321,540 654,882 310,714 344,168 698,832 334,290 364,542
55-59 386,964 174,663 212,302 397,343 178,406 218,937 409,632 183,168 226,464 427,904 191,366 236,538 454,750 204,545 250,205
60-64 302,051 135,360 166,691 313,233 140,707 172,526 327,263 147,225 180,038 341,639 153,671 187,968 354,784 159,286 195,498
65-69 275,857 120,368 155,489 273,971 119,818 154,153 270,077 118,438 151,640 267,678 117,722 149,955 269,195 118,696 150,499
70-74 185,970 79,269 106,701 200,769 85,676 115,093 215,417 92,018 123,400 227,280 97,176 130,104 234,730 100,469 134,261
75-79 109,006 45,165 63,841 114,440 47,505 66,934 119,885 49,794 70,091 126,475 52,551 73,924 134,832 56,061 78,772
80 + 74,756 27,298 47,458 79,232 29,321 49,910 84,440 31,651 52,789 89,947 34,070 55,877 95,510 36,459 59,051
Total 15,419,682 7,557,355 7,862,327 15,778,592 7,739,448 8,039,144 16,141,033 7,923,267 8,217,766 16,506,671 8,108,646 8,398,026 16,875,142 8,295,400 8,579,742
Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario

101
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,540,404 770,350 770,055 1,553,626 778,841 774,785 1,572,061 789,951 782,110 1,595,359 803,509 791,850 1,623,164 819,331 803,832
5-9 1,531,050 762,056 768,994 1,532,645 763,118 769,526 1,526,411 760,099 766,312 1,515,688 754,747 760,941 1,503,836 748,810 755,026
10-14 1,310,118 646,675 663,444 1,364,300 674,724 689,576 1,419,149 703,232 715,916 1,468,321 728,814 739,507 1,506,822 748,820 758,002
15-19 1,129,941 555,677 574,264 1,152,285 566,740 585,545 1,178,767 579,696 599,071 1,211,694 596,017 615,677 1,252,138 616,454 635,684
20-24 1,037,841 504,153 533,688 1,050,502 511,204 539,298 1,063,880 519,110 544,770 1,079,075 527,891 551,185 1,096,983 537,619 559,365
25-29 946,514 464,622 481,892 965,161 471,991 493,170 981,733 478,024 503,710 996,699 483,591 513,108 1,010,566 489,394 521,172
30-34 799,064 388,671 410,393 833,196 407,144 426,051 862,303 422,675 439,629 887,938 435,852 452,086 911,301 447,177 464,124
35-39 547,396 252,600 294,795 595,690 278,398 317,292 648,536 306,944 341,592 700,181 334,932 365,249 746,438 359,941 386,497
40-44 426,242 195,008 231,234 436,964 198,844 238,120 449,731 203,781 245,951 469,009 212,492 256,517 497,634 226,688 270,947
45-49 346,488 158,445 188,043 358,506 164,287 194,219 373,831 171,529 202,303 389,581 178,714 210,868 403,926 184,948 218,978
50-54 339,865 152,743 187,123 336,829 151,703 185,127 331,208 149,555 181,653 327,316 148,199 179,118 328,161 148,945 179,216
55-59 257,485 114,133 143,352 276,868 122,863 154,005 296,157 131,564 164,593 311,766 138,652 173,114 321,430 143,136 178,294
60-64 185,858 81,031 104,827 194,269 84,893 109,375 202,409 88,532 113,878 212,189 92,872 119,318 224,720 98,454 126,266
65-69 109,771 43,935 65,837 120,752 49,463 71,289 133,645 55,840 77,806 146,382 62,036 84,346 157,644 67,407 90,237
70-74 90,405 34,394 56,011 87,149 32,923 54,225 83,992 31,629 52,363 83,148 31,481 51,668 85,889 33,017 52,872
75-79 61,443 23,417 38,026 64,319 24,279 40,039 67,224 25,280 41,945 68,922 25,840 43,081 68,908 25,730 43,179
80 + 76,884 30,444 46,440 73,831 29,012 44,818 71,525 27,766 43,758 70,177 26,883 43,294 69,739 26,388 43,351
Total 10,736,771 5,178,354 5,558,417 10,996,891 5,310,430 5,686,461 11,262,564 5,445,206 5,817,359 11,533,445 5,582,519 5,950,925 11,809,300 5,722,258 6,087,041

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,648,441 832,116 816,325 1,672,663 844,359 828,304 1,696,055 856,174 839,881 1,718,786 867,664 851,122 1,740,936 878,916 862,020
5-9 1,512,717 755,053 757,664 1,527,168 764,098 763,070 1,546,772 775,737 771,034 1,571,179 789,801 781,377 1,599,987 806,099 793,889
10-14 1,519,598 755,699 763,899 1,521,756 757,029 764,727 1,516,105 754,289 761,816 1,505,954 749,213 756,740 1,494,633 743,540 751,092
15-19 1,300,459 641,237 659,222 1,354,611 669,226 685,385 1,409,434 697,673 711,760 1,458,627 723,221 735,406 1,497,215 743,239 753,976
20-24 1,117,150 547,949 569,202 1,139,615 559,045 580,570 1,166,187 572,020 594,168 1,199,152 588,329 610,824 1,239,572 608,717 630,854
25-29 1,023,675 495,808 527,868 1,036,560 502,947 533,613 1,050,156 510,934 539,222 1,065,549 519,788 545,762 1,083,626 529,582 554,044
30-34 932,515 456,574 475,941 951,301 464,011 487,289 968,053 470,142 497,911 983,226 475,821 507,405 997,309 481,736 515,573
35-39 786,062 381,334 404,728 820,018 399,641 420,377 849,057 415,075 433,982 874,697 428,210 446,487 898,108 439,535 458,573
40-44 536,752 247,042 289,711 584,417 272,423 311,994 636,578 300,513 336,065 687,596 328,078 359,518 733,358 352,748 380,610
45-49 415,822 189,639 226,183 426,542 193,490 233,052 439,274 198,421 240,853 458,383 207,041 251,342 486,649 221,021 265,628
50-54 334,996 152,403 182,593 346,872 158,153 188,719 361,943 165,247 196,697 377,427 172,284 205,143 391,559 178,405 213,154
55-59 324,215 144,622 179,593 321,557 143,753 177,803 316,443 141,843 174,599 312,991 140,690 172,301 314,078 141,536 172,542
60-64 240,689 105,583 135,106 259,101 113,795 145,306 277,419 121,977 155,442 292,277 128,658 163,620 301,560 132,918 168,642
65-69 166,859 71,693 95,166 174,630 75,204 99,427 182,216 78,545 103,671 191,339 82,539 108,801 203,001 87,660 115,341
70-74 92,467 36,347 56,120 101,965 41,032 60,933 113,038 46,403 66,635 123,969 51,617 72,352 133,687 56,152 77,535
75-79 67,821 25,135 42,685 65,519 24,110 41,408 63,379 23,257 40,122 63,070 23,291 39,779 65,536 24,597 40,939
80 + 69,482 26,054 43,427 70,102 26,067 44,035 71,006 26,194 44,812 71,543 26,183 45,360 71,458 25,935 45,523
Total 12,089,721 5,864,287 6,225,434 12,374,397 6,008,384 6,366,013 12,663,116 6,154,445 6,508,671 12,955,763 6,302,425 6,653,338 13,252,272 6,452,337 6,799,935

102
 Table 35: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,762,440 889,889 872,551 1,783,292 900,567 882,725 1,803,513 910,948 892,566 1,822,957 920,936 902,021 1,841,303 930,369 910,934
5-9 1,626,180 819,313 806,867 1,651,262 831,989 819,273 1,675,418 844,232 831,186 1,698,793 856,131 842,662 1,721,518 867,750 853,768
10-14 1,503,872 749,941 753,931 1,518,616 759,121 759,495 1,538,451 770,877 767,574 1,563,034 785,040 777,994 1,591,986 801,418 790,568
15-19 1,510,205 750,206 759,999 1,512,628 751,666 760,963 1,507,274 749,085 758,189 1,497,435 744,186 753,249 1,486,427 738,693 747,734
20-24 1,287,784 633,397 654,387 1,341,761 661,243 680,518 1,396,393 689,540 706,853 1,445,440 714,969 730,470 1,483,977 734,932 749,045
25-29 1,103,925 539,966 563,959 1,126,485 551,103 575,382 1,153,097 564,088 589,008 1,186,022 580,361 605,661 1,226,319 600,657 625,662
30-34 1,010,624 488,247 522,376 1,023,697 495,469 528,228 1,037,452 503,519 533,934 1,052,970 512,419 540,551 1,071,132 522,242 548,890
35-39 919,397 448,964 470,433 938,284 456,462 481,821 955,153 462,672 492,481 970,446 468,431 502,015 984,651 474,417 510,235
40-44 772,623 373,886 398,737 806,332 392,011 414,321 835,213 407,324 427,889 860,753 420,384 440,369 884,101 431,666 452,435
45-49 525,186 241,015 284,171 572,096 265,923 306,173 623,421 293,485 329,936 673,642 320,544 353,098 718,735 344,786 373,949
50-54 403,323 183,036 220,288 413,962 186,862 227,100 426,573 191,744 234,829 445,398 200,210 245,188 473,137 213,875 259,262
55-59 320,891 144,955 175,936 332,525 150,548 181,977 347,215 157,415 189,801 362,299 164,223 198,077 376,088 170,154 205,933
60-64 304,391 134,393 169,998 302,135 133,691 168,444 297,602 132,036 165,566 294,660 131,099 163,560 296,000 132,032 163,967
65-69 217,791 94,163 123,628 234,793 101,627 133,166 251,686 109,048 142,637 265,405 115,107 150,298 274,029 118,985 155,044
70-74 141,711 59,797 81,914 148,567 62,818 85,750 155,339 65,726 89,614 163,493 69,208 94,285 173,862 73,656 100,206
75-79 70,917 27,231 43,685 78,487 30,852 47,635 87,221 34,957 52,264 95,822 38,923 56,899 103,493 42,375 61,118
80 + 70,775 25,461 45,314 69,936 24,947 44,989 69,522 24,656 44,866 70,190 24,881 45,308 72,285 25,766 46,519
Total 13,552,035 6,603,862 6,948,173 13,854,858 6,756,900 7,097,958 14,160,545 6,911,352 7,249,192 14,468,760 7,067,053 7,401,707 14,779,042 7,223,773 7,555,269

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,857,849 938,863 918,986 1,872,087 946,164 925,924 1,883,827 952,176 931,651 1,892,936 956,838 936,098 1,899,338 960,118 939,221
5-9 1,743,614 879,094 864,520 1,765,068 890,145 874,923 1,785,900 900,895 885,005 1,805,957 911,245 894,712 1,824,905 921,017 903,888
10-14 1,618,340 814,730 803,610 1,643,593 827,505 816,088 1,667,925 839,848 828,077 1,691,478 851,845 839,633 1,714,382 863,557 850,825
15-19 1,495,846 745,183 750,663 1,510,742 754,434 756,308 1,530,701 766,241 764,461 1,555,379 780,434 774,945 1,584,397 796,821 787,577
20-24 1,497,130 741,977 755,153 1,499,820 743,579 756,241 1,494,806 741,187 753,619 1,485,345 736,500 748,845 1,474,722 731,221 743,502
25-29 1,274,338 625,194 649,144 1,328,075 652,862 675,213 1,382,477 680,983 701,494 1,431,364 706,277 725,087 1,469,857 726,173 743,684
30-34 1,091,497 532,646 558,851 1,114,104 543,792 570,312 1,140,724 556,762 583,962 1,173,599 572,978 600,621 1,213,779 593,171 620,608
35-39 998,094 480,987 517,107 1,011,296 488,255 523,041 1,025,172 496,337 528,835 1,040,791 505,256 535,535 1,059,029 515,083 543,946
40-44 905,372 441,086 464,286 924,288 448,610 475,678 941,224 454,866 486,358 956,610 460,678 495,932 970,923 466,711 504,212
45-49 757,491 365,590 391,901 790,828 383,459 407,369 819,456 398,588 420,868 844,823 411,517 433,307 868,053 422,705 445,348
50-54 510,871 233,368 277,503 556,750 257,616 299,133 606,924 284,431 322,492 656,036 310,758 345,278 700,177 334,360 365,817
55-59 387,617 174,666 212,952 398,087 178,416 219,671 410,479 183,187 227,291 428,875 191,399 237,476 455,876 204,599 251,277
60-64 302,737 135,364 167,373 314,011 140,717 173,294 328,155 147,246 180,909 342,663 153,707 188,956 355,952 159,341 196,611
65-69 276,803 120,372 156,431 274,998 119,830 155,168 271,182 118,461 152,721 268,866 117,760 151,107 270,490 118,751 151,739
70-74 186,942 79,273 107,669 201,916 85,688 116,228 216,763 92,044 124,720 228,833 97,220 131,612 236,481 100,537 135,945
75-79 109,898 45,168 64,730 115,467 47,515 67,952 121,061 49,814 71,247 127,825 52,585 75,240 136,392 56,114 80,278
80 + 75,812 27,301 48,511 80,461 29,329 51,133 85,872 31,667 54,205 91,610 34,099 57,511 97,430 36,504 60,926
Total 15,090,251 7,380,861 7,709,390 15,401,591 7,537,917 7,863,674 15,712,645 7,694,732 8,017,913 16,022,989 7,851,095 8,171,895 16,332,184 8,006,781 8,325,403
Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario

103
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,534,273 767,262 767,011 1,534,992 769,462 765,530 1,534,273 770,935 763,338 1,531,449 771,349 760,100 1,525,769 770,318 755,451
5-9 1,531,071 762,069 769,002 1,532,712 763,159 769,552 1,526,555 760,187 766,368 1,515,949 754,906 761,042 1,504,279 749,083 755,196
10-14 1,310,127 646,680 663,447 1,364,329 674,742 689,588 1,419,211 703,270 715,941 1,468,434 728,882 739,552 1,507,005 748,931 758,074
15-19 1,129,949 555,682 574,267 1,152,308 566,754 585,554 1,178,814 579,724 599,090 1,211,773 596,063 615,710 1,252,261 616,527 635,734
20-24 1,037,850 504,159 533,691 1,050,529 511,222 539,308 1,063,934 519,145 544,790 1,079,165 527,947 551,218 1,097,118 537,703 559,415
25-29 946,523 464,628 481,895 965,189 472,008 493,181 981,790 478,059 503,731 996,794 483,651 513,144 1,010,711 489,484 521,227
30-34 799,073 388,676 410,397 833,222 407,160 426,062 862,358 422,708 439,650 888,032 435,908 452,123 911,444 447,264 464,180
35-39 547,402 252,604 294,798 595,711 278,410 317,301 648,582 306,971 341,611 700,264 334,980 365,284 746,569 360,018 386,551
40-44 426,248 195,012 231,236 436,982 198,855 238,127 449,768 203,802 245,966 469,071 212,528 256,543 497,733 226,745 270,988
45-49 346,493 158,448 188,045 358,523 164,297 194,225 373,865 171,549 202,316 389,640 178,750 210,890 404,016 185,003 219,013
50-54 339,871 152,746 187,125 336,847 151,714 185,133 331,242 149,577 181,666 327,372 148,233 179,139 328,244 148,996 179,248
55-59 257,491 114,137 143,354 276,886 122,874 154,012 296,195 131,586 164,608 311,832 138,691 173,140 321,530 143,196 178,334
60-64 185,863 81,034 104,829 194,286 84,903 109,383 202,444 88,552 113,892 212,248 92,906 119,343 224,812 98,508 126,305
65-69 109,776 43,937 65,839 120,766 49,470 71,295 133,676 55,856 77,820 146,437 62,066 84,371 157,731 67,455 90,276
70-74 90,410 34,396 56,013 87,164 32,931 54,233 84,020 31,643 52,377 83,192 31,503 51,690 85,956 33,051 52,905
75-79 61,448 23,420 38,028 64,333 24,287 40,047 67,255 25,295 41,960 68,972 25,866 43,106 68,983 25,767 43,216
80 + 76,891 30,448 46,443 73,850 29,023 44,827 71,563 27,787 43,776 70,239 26,917 43,322 69,831 26,437 43,394
Total 10,730,760 5,175,338 5,555,422 10,978,629 5,301,271 5,677,358 11,225,545 5,426,644 5,798,901 11,470,864 5,551,147 5,919,716 11,713,993 5,674,487 6,039,506

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,515,811 765,322 750,489 1,502,994 758,864 744,130 1,487,372 750,984 736,388 1,477,459 746,045 731,414 1,473,748 744,299 729,449
5-9 1,507,396 752,447 754,950 1,509,811 755,458 754,353 1,510,777 757,745 753,031 1,509,571 758,961 750,610 1,505,384 758,676 746,708
10-14 1,519,864 755,855 764,008 1,522,130 757,245 764,885 1,516,612 754,580 762,032 1,506,620 749,601 757,019 1,495,517 744,062 751,455
15-19 1,300,639 641,342 659,297 1,354,862 669,370 685,492 1,409,773 697,867 711,907 1,459,064 723,472 735,592 1,497,767 743,558 754,209
20-24 1,117,342 548,067 569,275 1,139,875 559,203 580,671 1,166,526 572,224 594,303 1,199,580 588,587 610,994 1,240,105 609,039 631,066
25-29 1,023,881 495,935 527,946 1,036,839 503,119 533,721 1,050,519 511,155 539,363 1,066,004 520,067 545,938 1,084,185 529,925 554,260
30-34 932,720 456,697 476,023 951,581 464,178 487,403 968,421 470,358 498,063 983,686 476,094 507,593 997,875 482,072 515,803
35-39 786,255 381,446 404,809 820,286 399,796 420,491 849,413 415,279 434,134 875,148 428,471 446,677 898,668 439,862 458,806
40-44 536,900 247,126 289,774 584,632 272,545 312,087 636,879 300,683 336,196 687,999 328,306 359,693 733,881 353,045 380,836
45-49 415,949 189,715 226,234 426,716 193,591 233,125 439,503 198,551 240,953 458,681 207,207 251,474 487,035 221,235 265,801
50-54 335,113 152,475 182,639 347,033 158,249 188,784 362,159 165,373 196,786 377,710 172,445 205,265 391,919 178,606 213,314
55-59 324,355 144,705 179,650 321,740 143,860 177,880 316,674 141,976 174,698 313,280 140,851 172,429 314,434 141,731 172,703
60-64 240,825 105,661 135,164 259,295 113,904 145,391 277,686 122,124 155,562 292,635 128,848 163,787 302,016 133,154 168,862
65-69 166,986 71,763 95,224 174,808 75,300 99,508 182,455 78,671 103,784 191,662 82,701 108,962 203,426 87,866 115,560
70-74 92,566 36,397 56,169 102,109 41,105 61,004 113,246 46,507 66,739 124,269 51,759 72,510 134,094 56,338 77,756
75-79 67,923 25,186 42,737 65,650 24,174 41,476 63,545 23,334 40,211 63,291 23,384 39,907 65,827 24,714 41,113
80 + 69,611 26,122 43,488 70,277 26,157 44,120 71,242 26,310 44,932 71,877 26,326 45,550 71,899 26,107 45,791
Total 11,954,137 5,796,261 6,157,876 12,190,638 5,916,117 6,274,521 12,422,803 6,033,721 6,389,082 12,658,538 6,153,125 6,505,413 12,897,779 6,274,288 6,623,491

104
 Table 36: Projections of the total population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,476,583 745,898 730,685 1,486,418 751,054 735,364 1,503,770 760,008 743,762 1,520,580 768,687 751,893 1,536,598 776,968 759,630
5-9 1,496,852 754,435 742,417 1,485,364 748,728 736,637 1,470,956 741,590 729,366 1,462,078 737,291 724,787 1,459,274 736,110 723,164
10-14 1,499,081 747,644 751,437 1,501,911 750,877 751,035 1,503,264 753,387 749,877 1,502,445 754,827 747,618 1,498,644 754,767 743,877
15-19 1,510,890 750,604 760,286 1,513,471 752,157 761,314 1,508,305 749,687 758,618 1,498,692 744,922 753,769 1,487,973 739,602 748,370
20-24 1,288,449 633,797 654,651 1,342,586 661,739 680,847 1,397,409 690,149 707,260 1,446,673 715,708 730,966 1,485,454 735,814 749,640
25-29 1,104,610 540,385 564,225 1,127,318 551,610 575,708 1,154,103 564,698 589,405 1,187,231 581,090 606,141 1,227,765 601,526 626,238
30-34 1,011,316 488,659 522,656 1,024,536 495,968 528,568 1,038,461 504,119 534,342 1,054,171 513,133 541,038 1,072,550 523,084 549,467
35-39 920,086 449,367 470,720 939,123 456,952 482,171 956,164 463,260 492,904 971,651 469,129 502,522 986,071 475,237 510,834
40-44 773,287 374,264 399,023 807,160 392,483 414,677 836,227 407,902 428,325 861,976 421,081 440,894 885,557 432,496 453,061
45-49 525,692 241,294 284,398 572,759 266,288 306,471 624,280 293,960 330,321 674,735 321,148 353,586 720,090 345,537 374,553
50-54 403,774 183,282 220,493 414,518 187,160 227,358 427,253 192,103 235,150 446,231 200,645 245,586 474,166 214,411 259,755
55-59 321,333 145,193 176,140 333,076 150,840 182,236 347,901 157,773 190,128 363,141 164,657 198,484 377,104 170,673 206,432
60-64 304,953 134,678 170,275 302,807 134,026 168,781 298,390 132,424 165,966 295,573 131,546 164,028 297,062 132,548 164,514
65-69 218,350 94,427 123,923 235,521 101,964 133,557 252,616 109,471 143,144 266,561 115,625 150,935 275,419 119,602 155,817
70-74 142,245 60,034 82,211 149,248 63,111 86,137 156,190 66,085 90,105 164,545 69,646 94,899 175,158 74,189 100,969
75-79 71,307 27,384 43,923 79,014 31,056 47,958 87,924 35,227 52,697 96,737 39,272 57,465 104,646 42,812 61,835
80 + 71,337 25,665 45,672 70,632 25,185 45,448 70,370 24,933 45,437 71,217 25,205 46,012 73,531 26,151 47,380
Total 13,140,145 6,397,010 6,743,136 13,385,465 6,521,199 6,864,266 13,633,582 6,646,776 6,986,806 13,884,236 6,773,612 7,110,624 14,137,062 6,901,524 7,235,538

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,551,202 784,524 766,678 1,563,910 791,112 772,798 1,574,410 796,557 777,853 1,582,385 800,662 781,722 1,587,647 803,343 784,304
5-9 1,462,940 738,229 724,711 1,473,543 743,868 729,675 1,491,592 753,259 738,333 1,509,037 762,324 746,713 1,525,589 770,913 754,676
10-14 1,490,500 750,758 739,742 1,479,393 745,279 734,115 1,465,351 738,358 726,992 1,456,777 734,235 722,542 1,454,215 733,187 721,028
15-19 1,491,810 743,330 748,480 1,494,899 746,699 748,200 1,496,498 749,339 747,160 1,495,913 750,897 745,016 1,492,334 750,945 741,389
20-24 1,498,842 743,000 755,841 1,501,770 744,750 757,020 1,497,000 742,510 754,490 1,487,796 737,982 749,814 1,477,471 732,890 744,581
25-29 1,276,046 626,222 649,824 1,330,071 654,068 676,003 1,384,780 682,382 702,398 1,433,979 707,872 726,107 1,472,776 727,959 744,816
30-34 1,093,145 533,625 559,520 1,115,994 544,918 571,076 1,142,872 558,047 584,825 1,176,023 574,434 601,589 1,216,501 594,812 621,690
35-39 999,738 481,939 517,799 1,013,173 489,348 523,825 1,027,290 497,581 529,709 1,043,157 506,654 536,503 1,061,651 516,640 545,011
40-44 907,069 442,054 465,014 926,232 449,722 476,510 943,420 456,127 487,293 959,059 462,089 496,970 973,626 468,275 505,351
45-49 759,121 366,498 392,623 792,741 384,534 408,207 821,657 399,835 421,821 847,317 412,943 434,375 870,845 424,314 446,531
50-54 512,138 234,033 278,105 558,301 258,442 299,859 608,806 285,450 323,356 658,284 311,998 346,287 702,811 335,838 366,973
55-59 388,810 175,270 213,540 399,458 179,110 220,349 412,044 183,981 228,063 430,671 192,321 238,350 457,960 205,689 252,271
60-64 303,968 135,962 168,006 315,434 141,413 174,022 329,798 148,057 181,741 344,550 154,652 189,898 358,097 160,434 197,663
65-69 278,399 121,080 157,319 276,767 120,619 156,147 273,102 119,330 153,772 270,950 118,726 152,224 272,773 119,842 152,931
70-74 188,517 79,919 108,598 203,806 86,468 117,338 218,997 92,977 126,020 231,423 98,329 133,094 239,413 101,831 137,582
75-79 111,291 45,695 65,596 117,097 48,135 68,962 122,939 50,538 72,402 129,995 53,446 76,550 138,915 57,153 81,763
80 + 77,306 27,761 49,545 82,236 29,880 52,355 87,966 32,332 55,634 94,071 34,912 59,159 100,307 37,503 62,804
Total 14,390,839 7,029,899 7,360,940 14,644,825 7,158,365 7,486,459 14,898,523 7,286,659 7,611,864 15,151,388 7,414,475 7,736,913 15,402,934 7,541,570 7,861,364
Table 37: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario

105
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 236,920 111,271 125,650 249,093 117,273 131,820 262,732 124,002 138,730 277,924 131,502 146,423 294,758 139,812 154,946
5-9 211,298 98,821 112,477 220,119 102,959 117,160 227,833 106,562 121,271 234,816 109,818 124,997 241,520 112,952 128,568
10-14 191,522 87,567 103,954 207,449 95,032 112,416 224,149 102,893 121,256 240,597 110,644 129,953 255,845 117,819 138,026
15-19 202,429 88,038 114,390 214,400 93,292 121,108 227,494 99,021 128,473 242,235 105,519 136,716 258,962 112,985 145,977
20-24 236,704 114,236 122,468 248,276 119,961 128,314 260,201 125,999 134,202 272,769 132,372 140,397 286,251 139,116 147,135
25-29 222,153 114,861 107,292 234,607 120,722 113,885 246,812 126,341 120,472 258,846 131,916 126,930 270,807 137,629 133,178
30-34 173,574 91,610 81,964 187,691 99,341 88,349 201,148 106,626 94,522 214,184 113,542 100,643 227,005 120,160 106,845
35-39 110,573 56,610 53,963 124,975 64,622 60,353 141,124 73,704 67,420 157,797 83,096 74,701 173,967 92,163 81,805
40-44 76,056 39,432 36,624 80,924 41,689 39,235 86,341 44,242 42,100 93,266 47,715 45,552 102,439 52,588 49,851
45-49 53,088 27,568 25,520 57,128 29,677 27,451 61,865 32,129 29,736 66,859 34,669 32,190 71,788 37,116 34,672
50-54 43,193 21,842 21,351 44,576 22,556 22,021 45,585 23,091 22,494 46,792 23,733 23,059 48,667 24,712 23,955
55-59 29,804 14,563 15,241 33,388 16,312 17,076 37,158 18,152 19,006 40,645 19,856 20,789 43,491 21,252 22,239
60-64 20,539 9,639 10,900 22,374 10,512 11,862 24,260 11,397 12,863 26,432 12,415 14,017 29,059 13,651 15,408
65-69 12,202 4,967 7,235 13,991 5,822 8,168 16,118 6,836 9,282 18,350 7,888 10,462 20,515 8,893 11,622
70-74 9,452 3,512 5,940 9,499 3,502 5,997 9,531 3,500 6,030 9,808 3,621 6,187 10,517 3,942 6,575
75-79 6,642 2,348 4,294 7,249 2,537 4,713 7,887 2,748 5,139 8,406 2,920 5,486 8,726 3,018 5,707
80 + 8,216 2,673 5,544 8,230 2,655 5,575 8,310 2,646 5,664 8,487 2,664 5,822 8,766 2,717 6,049
Total 1,844,364 889,557 954,807 1,963,969 948,465 1,015,504 2,088,549 1,009,889 1,078,660 2,218,213 1,073,888 1,144,325 2,353,085 1,140,525 1,212,560

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 311,812 147,943 163,869 329,281 156,284 172,997 347,199 164,848 182,351 365,595 173,641 191,954 384,512 182,679 201,833
5-9 251,878 118,117 133,761 263,710 124,013 139,697 277,092 130,672 146,420 292,103 138,130 153,974 308,825 146,419 162,406
10-14 267,095 123,116 143,979 276,619 127,585 149,035 284,745 131,383 153,362 291,962 134,745 157,217 298,853 137,951 160,901
15-19 277,940 121,559 156,381 298,874 131,093 167,782 320,718 141,088 179,630 342,013 150,846 191,167 361,453 159,742 201,711
20-24 300,630 146,182 154,448 315,956 153,620 162,336 332,793 161,754 171,039 351,899 171,041 180,858 373,748 181,778 191,970
25-29 282,805 143,616 139,189 294,954 149,916 145,038 307,507 156,575 150,931 320,786 163,612 157,174 335,099 171,066 164,033
30-34 239,611 126,433 113,177 251,866 132,295 119,571 263,833 137,882 125,951 275,606 143,409 132,197 287,311 149,076 138,235
35-39 189,233 100,677 88,556 203,677 108,691 94,986 217,348 116,183 101,166 230,521 123,242 107,280 243,431 129,954 113,477
40-44 114,320 59,153 55,167 128,688 67,265 61,423 144,779 76,443 68,336 161,336 85,897 75,439 177,317 94,972 82,345
45-49 76,439 39,334 37,105 81,009 41,439 39,570 86,122 43,838 42,284 92,727 47,143 45,584 101,545 51,821 49,724
50-54 51,486 26,172 25,313 55,192 28,086 27,107 59,561 30,318 29,243 64,165 32,625 31,539 68,699 34,839 33,860
55-59 45,484 22,242 23,242 46,728 22,880 23,848 47,589 23,341 24,248 48,668 23,914 24,754 50,448 24,828 25,621
60-64 32,277 15,171 17,106 35,997 16,928 19,069 39,891 18,768 21,123 43,458 20,457 23,001 46,323 21,820 24,503
65-69 22,517 9,804 12,713 24,412 10,650 13,761 26,360 11,509 14,852 28,618 12,501 16,117 31,363 13,711 17,651
70-74 11,740 4,501 7,239 13,409 5,265 8,144 15,382 6,163 9,219 17,441 7,091 10,350 19,428 7,971 11,457
75-79 8,908 3,058 5,850 8,916 3,040 5,877 8,926 3,036 5,890 9,180 3,145 6,035 9,842 3,432 6,410
80 + 9,064 2,784 6,280 9,480 2,888 6,592 9,942 3,006 6,936 10,360 3,110 7,250 10,687 3,186 7,502
Total 2,493,238 1,209,862 1,283,376 2,638,769 1,281,937 1,356,832 2,789,790 1,356,809 1,432,981 2,946,439 1,434,549 1,511,889 3,108,884 1,515,244 1,593,640

106
 Table 37: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 404,019 191,972 212,047 424,038 201,508 222,529 444,596 211,304 233,292 465,688 221,357 244,331 487,261 231,649 255,612
5-9 325,763 154,474 171,289 343,109 162,725 180,383 360,917 171,201 189,717 379,248 179,930 199,318 398,157 188,942 209,215
10-14 310,266 143,617 166,649 323,454 150,139 173,315 338,509 157,565 180,944 355,541 165,949 189,593 374,647 175,338 199,309
15-19 375,165 166,027 209,138 386,393 171,158 215,235 395,662 175,386 220,276 403,709 179,057 224,652 411,366 182,564 228,802
20-24 398,691 194,146 204,545 426,218 207,879 218,339 454,827 222,189 232,638 482,477 236,006 246,471 507,379 248,401 258,977
25-29 350,421 178,863 171,558 366,777 187,061 179,716 384,844 196,072 188,772 405,526 206,464 199,062 429,375 218,601 210,774
30-34 299,078 155,019 144,059 311,005 161,280 149,724 323,377 167,926 155,451 336,553 174,995 161,558 350,866 182,544 168,322
35-39 256,092 136,264 119,828 268,347 142,109 126,239 280,292 147,656 132,636 292,061 153,160 138,901 303,808 158,846 144,961
40-44 192,337 103,439 88,899 206,481 111,358 95,123 219,827 118,729 101,098 232,680 125,665 107,015 245,297 132,271 113,026
45-49 113,020 58,143 54,877 126,908 65,957 60,951 142,458 74,793 67,665 158,446 83,885 74,561 173,873 92,611 81,262
50-54 72,969 36,833 36,136 77,162 38,718 38,443 81,877 40,882 40,995 88,019 43,901 44,118 96,267 48,208 48,059
55-59 53,209 26,222 26,987 56,878 28,063 28,815 61,222 30,217 31,005 65,807 32,445 33,362 70,327 34,582 35,745
60-64 48,276 22,761 25,515 49,440 23,342 26,098 50,215 23,750 26,465 51,239 24,281 26,958 53,020 25,167 27,853
65-69 34,734 15,200 19,534 38,626 16,917 21,709 42,685 18,706 23,978 46,377 20,338 26,040 49,314 21,643 27,671
70-74 21,259 8,765 12,494 22,993 9,500 13,493 24,788 10,249 14,539 26,886 11,122 15,764 29,451 12,192 17,259
75-79 10,977 3,923 7,054 12,515 4,587 7,928 14,320 5,359 8,961 16,195 6,150 10,045 18,004 6,898 11,106
80 + 10,922 3,232 7,690 11,127 3,269 7,858 11,395 3,334 8,061 11,840 3,470 8,370 12,538 3,704 8,834
Total 3,277,199 1,598,900 1,678,299 3,451,471 1,685,572 1,765,899 3,631,811 1,775,318 1,856,493 3,818,293 1,868,176 1,950,117 4,010,951 1,964,163 2,046,788

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 509,214 242,142 267,071 531,298 252,708 278,590 553,435 263,310 290,125 575,547 273,914 301,633 597,566 284,491 313,075
5-9 417,703 198,280 219,423 437,797 207,893 229,904 458,445 217,786 240,659 479,608 227,940 251,668 501,195 238,314 262,881
10-14 394,003 184,477 209,526 413,809 193,847 219,963 434,112 203,471 230,642 454,954 213,371 241,583 476,370 223,564 252,806
15-19 425,221 189,372 235,849 441,456 197,304 244,151 460,145 206,400 253,744 481,379 216,706 264,673 505,233 228,259 276,975
20-24 524,139 256,723 267,416 537,370 263,241 274,129 547,823 268,352 279,471 556,522 272,586 283,936 564,604 276,531 288,073
25-29 456,764 232,711 224,053 487,053 248,421 238,632 518,482 264,768 253,714 548,689 280,462 268,227 575,616 294,389 281,228
30-34 366,276 190,515 175,761 382,778 198,931 183,847 401,057 208,216 192,841 422,029 218,960 203,070 446,237 231,525 214,713
35-39 315,666 164,879 150,787 327,714 171,268 156,446 340,235 178,074 162,160 353,580 185,325 168,255 368,072 193,066 175,007
40-44 257,692 138,510 119,182 269,691 144,295 125,397 281,380 149,789 131,591 292,884 155,243 137,641 304,343 160,875 143,469
45-49 188,370 100,767 87,603 202,016 108,401 93,615 214,884 115,511 99,373 227,262 122,199 105,063 239,387 128,560 110,828
50-54 107,029 54,058 52,971 120,059 61,296 58,763 134,642 69,481 65,161 149,618 77,901 71,717 164,043 85,976 78,067
55-59 74,586 36,510 38,076 78,772 38,337 40,436 83,491 40,443 43,048 89,649 43,396 46,252 97,921 47,620 50,301
60-64 55,838 26,549 29,289 59,604 28,382 31,221 64,065 30,528 33,537 68,764 32,741 36,023 73,381 34,856 38,524
65-69 51,282 22,535 28,747 52,421 23,077 29,344 53,160 23,456 29,703 54,173 23,964 30,210 55,990 24,824 31,166
70-74 32,607 13,513 19,094 36,244 15,034 21,210 40,018 16,613 23,405 43,428 18,043 25,385 46,110 19,177 26,933
75-79 19,673 7,572 12,101 21,260 8,199 13,061 22,914 8,843 14,071 24,860 9,599 15,261 27,241 10,528 16,713
80 + 13,509 4,045 9,465 14,719 4,475 10,243 16,118 4,974 11,143 17,636 5,511 12,125 19,232 6,067 13,165
Total 4,209,573 2,063,158 2,146,415 4,414,061 2,165,111 2,248,950 4,624,406 2,270,016 2,354,390 4,840,581 2,377,860 2,462,721 5,062,543 2,488,620 2,573,923

107
 Table 38: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 236,616 111,120 125,495 248,129 116,798 131,331 260,696 123,000 137,696 274,345 129,742 144,603 289,098 137,035 152,063
5-9 211,296 98,818 112,478 220,112 102,949 117,163 227,822 106,543 121,279 234,799 109,785 125,013 241,500 112,901 128,599
10-14 191,519 87,565 103,954 207,440 95,023 112,417 224,132 102,874 121,257 240,567 110,610 129,956 255,798 117,766 138,032
15-19 202,426 88,036 114,390 214,392 93,284 121,108 227,477 99,003 128,474 242,204 105,487 136,717 258,914 112,934 145,980
20-24 236,700 114,232 122,468 248,265 119,950 128,315 260,180 125,976 134,204 272,732 132,332 140,400 286,194 139,054 147,140
25-29 222,149 114,857 107,292 234,597 120,711 113,886 246,792 126,317 120,474 258,810 131,876 126,935 270,753 137,567 133,186
30-34 173,572 91,608 81,964 187,683 99,332 88,351 201,132 106,607 94,525 214,155 113,507 100,648 226,960 120,107 106,854
35-39 110,572 56,608 53,964 124,970 64,616 60,354 141,113 73,690 67,423 157,777 83,071 74,706 173,935 92,121 81,814
40-44 76,055 39,431 36,624 80,921 41,685 39,236 86,335 44,234 42,102 93,256 47,700 45,555 102,422 52,564 49,857
45-49 53,088 27,567 25,521 57,126 29,674 27,452 61,861 32,123 29,738 66,852 34,659 32,193 71,776 37,099 34,677
50-54 43,192 21,841 21,351 44,575 22,553 22,022 45,583 23,087 22,496 46,788 23,726 23,062 48,660 24,701 23,959
55-59 29,804 14,562 15,242 33,387 16,310 17,077 37,156 18,148 19,008 40,643 19,850 20,793 43,487 21,243 22,244
60-64 20,539 9,639 10,900 22,374 10,511 11,863 24,260 11,395 12,865 26,432 12,411 14,021 29,059 13,645 15,414
65-69 12,202 4,967 7,235 13,991 5,822 8,169 16,118 6,834 9,284 18,351 7,886 10,466 20,517 8,889 11,628
70-74 9,452 3,512 5,941 9,500 3,502 5,998 9,532 3,500 6,033 9,811 3,620 6,191 10,521 3,940 6,581
75-79 6,642 2,348 4,294 7,250 2,536 4,714 7,889 2,748 5,141 8,409 2,919 5,490 8,731 3,017 5,714
80 + 8,217 2,673 5,544 8,232 2,655 5,577 8,312 2,645 5,667 8,491 2,663 5,828 8,773 2,715 6,058
Total 1,844,040 889,382 954,658 1,962,945 947,912 1,015,033 2,086,390 1,008,724 1,077,666 2,214,421 1,071,844 1,142,578 2,347,098 1,137,299 1,209,799

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 303,818 144,018 159,800 318,688 151,077 167,611 333,728 158,216 175,512 348,948 165,437 183,511 364,355 172,748 191,607
5-9 251,534 117,889 133,645 262,668 123,421 139,247 274,921 129,502 145,419 288,312 136,139 152,173 302,851 143,333 159,518
10-14 267,027 123,038 143,989 276,524 127,475 149,049 284,620 131,236 153,384 291,805 134,555 157,250 298,661 137,712 160,949
15-19 277,866 121,482 156,385 298,766 130,980 167,785 320,565 140,931 179,634 341,805 150,633 191,171 361,179 159,465 201,714
20-24 300,544 146,090 154,455 315,833 153,489 162,344 332,622 161,574 171,048 351,668 170,800 180,868 373,442 181,463 191,979
25-29 282,724 143,525 139,199 294,839 149,787 145,051 307,348 156,401 150,948 320,574 163,381 157,193 334,823 170,769 164,055
30-34 239,543 126,353 113,190 251,770 132,182 119,588 263,701 137,728 125,973 275,431 143,207 132,224 287,084 148,817 138,267
35-39 189,183 100,614 88,569 203,602 108,598 95,004 217,244 116,053 101,191 230,380 123,068 107,312 243,244 129,728 113,516
40-44 114,292 59,115 55,177 128,645 67,207 61,438 144,715 76,358 68,357 161,243 85,776 75,467 177,190 94,807 82,383
45-49 76,421 39,309 37,113 80,984 41,404 39,580 86,088 43,789 42,299 92,680 47,077 45,603 101,481 51,731 49,750
50-54 51,475 26,156 25,319 55,177 28,062 27,115 59,538 30,284 29,255 64,134 32,579 31,555 68,660 34,779 33,881
55-59 45,478 22,228 23,249 46,719 22,860 23,859 47,577 23,315 24,262 48,651 23,880 24,771 50,428 24,785 25,644
60-64 32,276 15,161 17,115 35,996 16,914 19,082 39,889 18,747 21,141 43,455 20,428 23,027 46,320 21,782 24,538
65-69 22,520 9,798 12,723 24,417 10,641 13,776 26,368 11,496 14,872 28,629 12,483 16,145 31,378 13,688 17,691
70-74 11,746 4,498 7,248 13,417 5,260 8,157 15,394 6,157 9,238 17,458 7,081 10,378 19,454 7,957 11,497
75-79 8,916 3,056 5,860 8,927 3,037 5,890 8,940 3,032 5,908 9,198 3,140 6,058 9,869 3,426 6,443
80 + 9,075 2,782 6,293 9,495 2,885 6,610 9,964 3,003 6,961 10,391 3,106 7,285 10,733 3,180 7,553
Total 2,484,438 1,205,111 1,279,327 2,626,466 1,275,280 1,351,186 2,773,222 1,347,823 1,425,399 2,924,764 1,422,772 1,501,991 3,081,153 1,500,168 1,580,985

108
 Table 38: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 379,990 180,158 199,833 395,791 187,647 208,144 411,773 195,224 216,549 427,917 202,877 225,040 444,154 210,576 233,578
5-9 317,344 150,166 167,179 331,970 157,058 174,913 346,767 164,033 182,734 361,771 171,114 190,657 377,020 178,322 198,698
10-14 309,641 143,131 166,510 321,935 149,182 172,753 335,574 155,881 179,693 350,596 163,250 187,346 367,024 171,301 195,723
15-19 374,818 165,680 209,138 385,968 170,736 215,232 395,155 174,883 220,273 403,120 178,468 224,652 410,698 181,883 228,815
20-24 398,291 193,740 204,551 425,705 207,366 218,339 454,181 221,552 232,629 481,683 235,230 246,453 506,423 247,475 258,948
25-29 350,069 178,489 171,580 366,336 186,600 179,736 384,298 195,509 188,789 404,858 205,785 199,073 428,565 217,785 210,779
30-34 298,788 154,696 144,093 310,642 160,883 149,759 322,929 167,445 155,485 336,010 174,419 161,591 350,216 181,864 168,353
35-39 255,850 135,979 119,871 268,043 141,758 126,285 279,917 147,232 132,684 291,607 152,656 138,951 303,266 158,254 145,012
40-44 192,167 103,223 88,944 206,259 111,083 95,176 219,545 118,389 101,157 232,331 125,252 107,079 244,872 131,778 113,094
45-49 112,932 58,022 54,910 126,788 65,795 60,993 142,295 74,578 67,717 158,231 83,609 74,622 173,598 92,266 81,332
50-54 72,919 36,756 36,164 77,100 38,623 38,477 81,801 40,765 41,036 87,922 43,756 44,166 96,142 48,028 48,115
55-59 53,183 26,167 27,016 56,845 27,994 28,851 61,179 30,130 31,048 65,752 32,338 33,414 70,258 34,454 35,805
60-64 48,273 22,714 25,560 49,436 23,285 26,151 50,207 23,682 26,525 51,226 24,201 27,025 53,000 25,074 27,927
65-69 34,756 15,168 19,588 38,655 16,875 21,780 42,719 18,653 24,066 46,416 20,271 26,146 49,356 21,562 27,794
70-74 21,296 8,746 12,550 23,040 9,476 13,564 24,846 10,220 14,626 26,954 11,085 15,869 29,530 12,147 17,383
75-79 11,017 3,915 7,102 12,568 4,576 7,992 14,389 5,344 9,045 16,281 6,130 10,151 18,106 6,872 11,234
80 + 10,988 3,225 7,763 11,214 3,261 7,953 11,502 3,325 8,178 11,969 3,459 8,510 12,690 3,691 9,000
Total 3,242,324 1,579,974 1,662,350 3,408,295 1,662,197 1,746,098 3,579,078 1,746,844 1,832,233 3,754,643 1,833,900 1,920,743 3,934,920 1,923,330 2,011,590

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 460,369 218,276 242,093 476,302 225,844 250,457 491,859 233,237 258,623 506,956 240,415 266,541 521,517 247,348 274,169
5-9 392,575 185,700 206,875 408,344 193,193 215,150 424,323 200,799 223,525 440,467 208,490 231,978 456,679 216,221 240,459
10-14 383,419 178,960 204,459 399,962 186,699 213,263 416,681 194,537 222,145 433,596 202,487 231,109 450,727 210,563 240,164
15-19 423,938 188,339 235,599 438,949 195,630 243,319 455,729 203,757 251,972 474,283 212,729 261,554 494,595 222,539 272,056
20-24 523,044 255,656 267,388 536,151 262,037 274,114 546,499 267,015 279,484 555,115 271,120 283,995 563,139 274,938 288,201
25-29 455,802 231,744 224,058 485,932 247,285 238,646 517,199 263,451 253,748 547,250 278,957 268,293 574,038 292,698 281,340
30-34 365,520 189,723 175,796 381,915 198,022 183,893 400,087 207,181 192,907 420,949 217,785 203,164 445,043 230,196 214,847
35-39 315,038 164,194 150,844 327,001 170,486 156,515 339,438 177,189 162,249 352,703 184,332 168,371 367,119 191,960 175,159
40-44 257,194 137,935 119,259 269,124 143,636 125,488 280,749 149,046 131,703 292,194 154,414 137,780 303,599 159,956 143,643
45-49 188,035 100,349 87,686 201,622 107,907 93,715 214,434 114,939 99,495 226,759 121,548 105,212 238,839 127,829 111,010
50-54 106,871 53,833 53,038 119,864 61,017 58,847 134,405 69,138 65,268 149,340 77,488 71,852 163,727 85,489 78,237
55-59 74,505 36,359 38,146 78,682 38,163 40,519 83,392 40,244 43,149 89,541 43,167 46,374 97,803 47,352 50,450
60-64 55,812 26,439 29,373 59,574 28,254 31,320 64,033 30,379 33,655 68,734 32,570 36,164 73,357 34,664 38,693
65-69 51,328 22,442 28,886 52,472 22,973 29,499 53,219 23,343 29,875 54,242 23,841 30,401 56,071 24,690 31,382
70-74 32,701 13,457 19,244 36,358 14,967 21,391 40,159 16,534 23,624 43,598 17,953 25,645 46,312 19,077 27,235
75-79 19,796 7,541 12,255 21,405 8,163 13,242 23,087 8,802 14,285 25,065 9,553 15,512 27,487 10,476 17,011
80 + 13,691 4,028 9,663 14,937 4,456 10,481 16,379 4,952 11,427 17,949 5,486 12,463 19,604 6,039 13,565
Total 4,119,638 2,014,975 2,104,663 4,308,595 2,108,732 2,199,863 4,501,673 2,204,541 2,297,132 4,698,742 2,302,333 2,396,408 4,899,655 2,402,034 2,497,621

109
 Table 39: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 235,660 110,664 124,996 245,111 115,359 129,752 254,343 119,972 134,371 263,206 124,436 138,770 271,521 128,663 142,858
5-9 211,286 98,810 112,476 220,084 102,926 117,158 227,765 106,496 121,269 234,707 109,708 124,998 241,370 112,790 128,580
10-14 191,509 87,557 103,952 207,409 94,999 112,410 224,065 102,823 121,243 240,451 110,520 129,931 255,618 117,624 137,994
15-19 202,416 88,028 114,388 214,360 93,260 121,101 227,411 98,953 128,458 242,089 105,399 136,690 258,732 112,795 145,937
20-24 236,688 114,223 122,466 248,228 119,920 128,307 260,103 125,915 134,188 272,598 132,225 140,373 285,986 138,887 147,099
25-29 222,138 114,848 107,290 234,560 120,681 113,879 246,718 126,257 120,461 258,683 131,772 126,911 270,556 137,407 133,150
30-34 173,563 91,600 81,963 187,654 99,308 88,346 201,071 106,556 94,515 214,049 113,418 100,631 226,794 119,967 106,827
35-39 110,566 56,603 53,963 124,952 64,601 60,351 141,072 73,656 67,417 157,701 83,007 74,694 173,811 92,016 81,795
40-44 76,051 39,428 36,623 80,909 41,675 39,234 86,311 44,214 42,098 93,214 47,665 45,549 102,353 52,506 49,846
45-49 53,085 27,565 25,520 57,118 29,668 27,450 61,844 32,109 29,735 66,822 34,634 32,188 71,730 37,060 34,670
50-54 43,190 21,840 21,351 44,569 22,549 22,021 45,571 23,077 22,494 46,768 23,710 23,059 48,630 24,676 23,955
55-59 29,803 14,561 15,242 33,383 16,307 17,077 37,148 18,141 19,007 40,628 19,837 20,791 43,464 21,223 22,241
60-64 20,539 9,638 10,900 22,372 10,509 11,863 24,256 11,392 12,864 26,425 12,405 14,020 29,047 13,634 15,413
65-69 12,202 4,967 7,235 13,990 5,821 8,169 16,117 6,833 9,284 18,348 7,882 10,466 20,512 8,883 11,629
70-74 9,452 3,511 5,941 9,500 3,501 5,999 9,533 3,499 6,033 9,811 3,619 6,192 10,521 3,939 6,582
75-79 6,642 2,348 4,294 7,251 2,536 4,714 7,890 2,748 5,142 8,411 2,919 5,492 8,734 3,017 5,717
80 + 8,217 2,673 5,544 8,233 2,655 5,577 8,314 2,646 5,668 8,494 2,664 5,830 8,778 2,717 6,061
Total 1,843,008 888,864 954,144 1,959,685 946,277 1,013,408 2,079,532 1,005,286 1,074,246 2,202,406 1,065,820 1,136,586 2,328,156 1,127,804 1,200,352

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 279,034 132,204 146,830 285,883 135,426 150,457 292,018 138,303 153,714 299,121 141,646 157,475 307,398 145,549 161,849
5-9 250,348 117,256 133,092 259,253 121,707 137,546 267,933 126,067 141,866 276,241 130,270 145,971 283,987 134,218 149,769
10-14 266,756 122,827 143,929 276,139 127,179 148,960 284,096 130,839 153,258 291,137 134,056 157,082 297,850 137,112 160,739
15-19 277,584 121,268 156,316 298,344 130,667 167,677 319,961 140,489 179,472 340,993 150,048 190,945 360,141 158,726 201,415
20-24 300,229 145,841 154,388 315,374 153,132 162,242 331,977 161,080 170,897 350,811 170,153 180,658 372,340 180,640 191,700
25-29 282,429 143,286 139,142 294,412 149,448 144,964 306,755 155,935 150,820 319,796 162,778 157,018 333,840 170,015 163,825
30-34 239,291 126,145 113,146 251,405 131,885 119,520 263,193 137,321 125,872 274,766 142,683 132,083 286,249 148,168 138,081
35-39 188,988 100,450 88,538 203,311 108,357 94,954 216,828 115,714 101,114 229,826 122,622 107,203 242,538 129,168 113,370
40-44 114,180 59,022 55,158 128,468 67,062 61,407 144,448 76,141 68,308 160,868 85,473 75,395 176,691 94,407 82,284
45-49 76,349 39,249 37,100 80,878 41,317 39,561 85,937 43,668 42,269 92,477 46,915 45,561 101,212 51,519 49,693
50-54 51,429 26,118 25,312 55,108 28,006 27,102 59,439 30,204 29,235 64,000 32,472 31,528 68,488 34,642 33,846
55-59 45,442 22,198 23,244 46,668 22,817 23,850 47,506 23,257 24,249 48,560 23,806 24,754 50,315 24,693 25,622
60-64 32,256 15,143 17,113 35,964 16,886 19,078 39,840 18,706 21,134 43,389 20,372 23,017 46,236 21,711 24,526
65-69 22,512 9,788 12,723 24,403 10,627 13,776 26,347 11,475 14,872 28,601 12,455 16,146 31,343 13,651 17,692
70-74 11,746 4,496 7,250 13,416 5,256 8,160 15,391 6,149 9,242 17,456 7,070 10,385 19,452 7,943 11,509
75-79 8,920 3,057 5,863 8,932 3,037 5,895 8,947 3,032 5,915 9,208 3,139 6,069 9,884 3,425 6,459
80 + 9,082 2,784 6,298 9,505 2,888 6,617 9,978 3,006 6,972 10,415 3,110 7,305 10,769 3,185 7,584
Total 2,456,575 1,191,132 1,265,444 2,587,463 1,255,696 1,331,767 2,720,594 1,321,385 1,399,209 2,857,665 1,389,068 1,468,597 2,998,734 1,458,772 1,539,962

110
 Table 39: Projections of the urban population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 317,103 150,119 166,984 328,413 155,447 172,965 341,593 161,656 179,937 354,943 167,942 187,002 368,417 174,285 194,132
5-9 290,958 137,462 153,496 297,274 140,395 156,879 302,905 143,010 159,896 309,624 146,147 163,477 317,660 149,919 167,741
10-14 307,458 141,854 165,604 316,979 146,575 170,404 326,256 151,203 175,054 335,145 155,673 179,472 343,438 159,889 183,549
15-19 373,563 164,794 208,769 384,501 169,705 214,796 393,485 173,711 219,774 401,280 177,172 224,108 408,726 180,480 228,246
20-24 396,919 192,724 204,195 424,035 206,133 217,902 452,190 220,085 232,105 479,384 233,532 245,853 503,848 245,559 258,290
25-29 348,872 177,578 171,294 364,913 185,522 179,391 382,635 194,254 188,382 402,956 204,345 198,611 426,422 216,152 210,270
30-34 297,778 153,916 143,862 309,450 159,967 149,483 321,551 166,387 155,164 334,456 173,223 161,233 348,497 180,530 167,967
35-39 254,989 135,302 119,687 267,023 140,961 126,062 278,737 146,314 132,423 290,281 151,623 138,658 301,810 157,112 144,698
40-44 191,537 102,720 88,818 205,494 110,473 95,021 218,641 117,668 100,973 231,298 124,426 106,873 243,725 130,852 112,873
45-49 112,584 57,747 54,837 126,345 65,444 60,900 141,743 74,139 67,604 157,568 83,076 74,492 172,833 91,641 81,192
50-54 72,709 36,589 36,120 76,851 38,426 38,425 81,511 40,535 40,976 87,590 43,490 44,100 95,763 47,718 48,045
55-59 53,046 26,056 26,990 56,681 27,861 28,820 60,987 29,973 31,014 65,534 32,156 33,378 70,022 34,250 35,772
60-64 48,175 22,628 25,546 49,325 23,187 26,138 50,087 23,574 26,514 51,101 24,083 27,017 52,873 24,947 27,926
65-69 34,714 15,121 19,592 38,607 16,818 21,789 42,668 18,585 24,084 46,369 20,194 26,175 49,319 21,480 27,839
70-74 21,298 8,729 12,568 23,048 9,457 13,591 24,863 10,198 14,665 26,986 11,063 15,923 29,583 12,126 17,457
75-79 11,039 3,914 7,125 12,602 4,575 8,027 14,439 5,345 9,094 16,354 6,134 10,220 18,209 6,881 11,328
80 + 11,039 3,232 7,808 11,284 3,270 8,014 11,595 3,337 8,258 12,090 3,475 8,616 12,848 3,712 9,136
Total 3,143,780 1,530,485 1,613,295 3,292,824 1,604,215 1,688,609 3,445,888 1,679,973 1,765,915 3,602,959 1,757,752 1,845,207 3,763,993 1,837,531 1,926,462

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 381,941 180,661 201,280 395,290 186,953 208,336 408,351 193,105 215,246 420,992 199,046 221,946 433,112 204,731 228,381
5-9 327,290 154,462 172,827 338,668 159,838 178,830 352,050 166,160 185,890 365,621 172,572 193,050 379,301 179,033 200,268
10-14 350,909 163,342 187,567 357,671 166,473 191,198 363,675 169,264 194,410 370,993 172,684 198,309 379,872 176,850 203,023
15-19 420,197 186,086 234,112 431,599 191,696 239,903 442,698 197,208 245,490 453,244 202,511 250,732 462,937 207,469 255,468
20-24 520,295 253,576 266,718 533,312 259,836 273,476 543,655 264,732 278,923 552,338 268,791 283,547 560,505 272,599 287,906
25-29 453,447 229,920 223,527 483,399 245,275 238,124 514,540 261,269 253,271 544,528 276,628 267,900 571,330 290,259 281,071
30-34 363,672 188,266 175,406 379,977 196,455 183,522 398,098 205,517 192,581 418,936 216,028 202,908 443,037 228,348 214,689
35-39 313,486 162,956 150,530 325,390 169,166 156,224 337,805 175,801 162,004 351,077 182,886 168,192 365,535 190,468 175,067
40-44 255,963 136,924 119,039 267,844 142,558 125,286 279,456 147,918 131,539 290,920 153,247 137,673 302,376 158,765 143,611
45-49 187,190 99,642 87,548 200,724 107,132 93,593 213,514 114,109 99,406 225,847 120,678 105,169 237,963 126,934 111,030
50-54 106,445 53,474 52,972 119,395 60,602 58,792 133,905 68,670 65,236 148,829 76,973 71,856 163,233 84,943 78,290
55-59 74,259 36,138 38,121 78,437 37,929 40,508 83,159 40,001 43,158 89,327 42,916 46,411 97,617 47,092 50,525
60-64 55,687 26,303 29,384 59,457 28,111 31,346 63,934 30,231 33,703 68,664 32,424 36,240 73,330 34,526 38,804
65-69 51,310 22,359 28,951 52,480 22,894 29,586 53,258 23,272 29,986 54,320 23,782 30,538 56,198 24,648 31,550
70-74 32,782 13,438 19,344 36,476 14,953 21,523 40,325 16,530 23,795 43,825 17,966 25,859 46,610 19,115 27,495
75-79 19,933 7,557 12,376 21,581 8,187 13,394 23,308 8,838 14,470 25,343 9,606 15,737 27,838 10,555 17,283
80 + 13,892 4,057 9,835 15,190 4,495 10,695 16,695 5,004 11,691 18,340 5,557 12,783 20,086 6,138 13,949
Total 3,928,699 1,919,162 2,009,537 4,096,890 2,002,553 2,094,337 4,268,427 2,087,628 2,180,799 4,443,145 2,174,295 2,268,850 4,620,880 2,262,471 2,358,409

111
 Table 40: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,305,443 660,097 645,345 1,310,498 664,666 645,832 1,321,456 672,238 649,218 1,337,993 682,655 655,338 1,359,794 695,750 664,043
5-9 1,319,740 663,235 656,505 1,312,487 660,160 652,327 1,298,495 653,537 644,958 1,280,721 644,928 635,793 1,262,060 635,858 626,202
10-14 1,118,591 559,107 559,484 1,156,834 579,692 577,142 1,194,962 600,339 594,623 1,227,657 618,170 609,487 1,250,869 631,001 619,867
15-19 927,508 467,639 459,869 937,871 473,448 464,423 951,244 480,675 470,569 969,410 490,498 478,912 993,100 503,469 489,631
20-24 801,132 389,917 411,215 802,212 391,243 410,968 803,649 393,111 410,538 806,256 395,519 410,738 810,657 398,503 412,154
25-29 724,356 349,762 374,595 730,538 351,268 379,270 734,889 351,683 383,206 737,799 351,676 386,124 739,678 351,765 387,913
30-34 625,485 297,061 328,424 645,489 307,803 337,686 661,123 316,048 345,074 673,699 322,310 351,388 684,211 327,017 357,195
35-39 436,818 195,990 240,828 470,701 213,776 256,926 507,383 233,241 274,142 542,333 251,836 290,497 572,390 267,778 304,612
40-44 350,183 155,576 194,607 356,029 157,156 198,874 363,367 159,539 203,829 375,703 164,777 210,926 395,134 174,100 221,034
45-49 293,397 130,877 162,519 301,369 134,610 166,759 311,946 139,399 172,547 322,688 144,045 178,644 332,085 147,832 184,253
50-54 296,669 130,901 165,768 292,243 129,147 163,096 285,603 126,464 159,139 280,492 124,466 156,026 279,447 124,233 155,214
55-59 227,677 99,571 128,107 243,469 106,551 136,918 258,976 113,412 145,564 271,081 118,796 152,285 277,878 121,883 155,995
60-64 165,315 71,392 93,923 171,884 74,381 97,503 178,127 77,134 100,993 185,719 80,456 105,263 195,602 84,803 110,800
65-69 97,567 38,968 58,599 106,751 43,640 63,111 117,507 49,004 68,503 127,995 54,148 73,847 137,071 58,514 78,557
70-74 80,949 30,882 50,066 77,639 29,421 48,217 74,440 28,128 46,312 73,307 27,860 45,447 75,322 29,075 46,247
75-79 54,798 21,069 33,729 57,059 21,743 35,316 59,315 22,531 36,784 60,478 22,921 37,558 60,127 22,711 37,416
80 + 68,663 27,771 40,892 65,587 26,357 39,230 63,189 25,120 38,069 61,648 24,219 37,429 60,910 23,672 37,238
Total 8,894,291 4,289,815 4,604,476 9,038,659 4,365,063 4,673,596 9,185,672 4,441,605 4,744,066 9,334,979 4,519,279 4,815,700 9,486,335 4,597,965 4,888,370

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,379,427 706,308 673,119 1,398,171 716,430 681,741 1,416,219 726,220 689,998 1,433,742 735,769 697,973 1,450,890 745,153 705,737
5-9 1,262,366 637,920 624,447 1,268,768 643,095 625,673 1,280,890 651,200 629,690 1,298,428 662,092 636,336 1,321,057 675,604 645,452
10-14 1,252,338 632,583 619,755 1,244,898 629,445 615,453 1,231,024 622,906 608,118 1,213,535 614,468 599,067 1,195,178 605,589 589,589
15-19 1,022,406 519,678 502,728 1,055,573 538,133 517,440 1,088,487 556,585 531,902 1,116,307 572,375 543,932 1,135,373 583,497 551,875
20-24 816,410 401,766 414,644 823,505 405,425 418,080 833,185 410,265 422,920 846,978 417,287 429,691 865,477 426,939 438,537
25-29 740,752 352,191 388,561 741,443 353,031 388,411 742,430 354,358 388,072 744,481 356,176 388,305 748,176 358,517 389,659
30-34 692,780 330,141 362,640 699,260 331,716 367,544 703,985 332,261 371,725 707,314 332,412 374,902 709,620 332,660 376,960
35-39 596,708 280,657 316,051 616,168 290,950 325,217 631,471 298,892 332,579 643,865 304,968 338,897 654,291 309,581 344,709
40-44 422,337 187,889 234,448 455,588 205,158 250,430 491,596 224,070 267,526 525,982 242,181 283,802 555,676 257,775 297,901
45-49 339,304 150,305 188,999 345,421 152,051 193,370 352,999 154,583 198,416 365,451 159,898 205,553 384,832 169,200 215,632
50-54 283,441 126,231 157,210 291,581 130,067 161,514 302,247 134,929 167,318 313,079 139,659 173,421 322,618 143,566 179,052
55-59 278,644 122,379 156,265 274,712 120,874 153,838 268,702 118,502 150,200 264,133 116,776 147,357 263,388 116,709 146,680
60-64 208,323 90,412 117,911 222,975 96,867 126,108 237,346 103,209 134,138 248,574 108,201 140,373 254,913 111,098 143,815
65-69 144,254 61,889 82,365 150,094 64,554 85,540 155,685 67,037 88,649 162,491 70,037 92,454 171,324 73,948 97,375
70-74 80,653 31,846 48,807 88,447 35,767 52,680 97,500 40,239 57,261 106,309 44,526 61,783 113,951 48,182 65,769
75-79 58,835 22,077 36,758 56,499 21,071 35,428 54,322 20,222 34,100 53,721 20,146 33,575 55,461 21,165 34,296
80 + 60,326 23,271 37,055 60,494 23,179 37,315 60,890 23,188 37,702 60,948 23,073 37,875 60,436 22,750 37,686
Total 9,639,306 4,677,543 4,961,763 9,793,595 4,757,813 5,035,782 9,948,977 4,838,666 5,110,312 10,105,338 4,920,043 5,185,295 10,262,660 5,001,933 5,260,726

112
 Table 40: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the high projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,467,566 754,296 713,270 1,483,710 763,196 720,514 1,499,309 771,844 727,465 1,514,214 780,161 734,053 1,528,154 788,006 740,148
5-9 1,341,496 686,588 654,908 1,361,057 697,160 663,897 1,379,890 707,395 672,495 1,398,110 717,349 680,760 1,415,807 727,060 688,747
10-14 1,194,750 607,299 587,451 1,200,060 611,968 588,092 1,210,720 619,404 591,316 1,226,402 629,443 596,958 1,246,757 641,907 604,851
15-19 1,134,575 584,179 550,395 1,125,689 580,507 545,182 1,110,978 573,699 537,279 1,092,987 565,129 527,858 1,074,190 556,129 518,061
20-24 888,674 439,251 449,423 915,047 453,364 461,683 940,989 467,351 473,638 962,301 478,963 483,338 975,852 486,531 489,321
25-29 753,087 361,104 391,983 759,224 364,042 395,182 767,698 368,017 399,682 779,868 373,896 405,972 796,236 382,056 414,180
30-34 711,102 333,228 377,874 712,184 334,188 377,996 713,502 335,593 377,910 715,778 337,424 378,354 719,558 339,698 379,860
35-39 662,848 312,700 350,148 669,408 314,354 355,054 674,261 315,016 359,245 677,713 315,271 362,442 680,100 315,570 364,530
40-44 579,837 270,448 309,389 599,319 280,653 318,666 614,773 288,595 326,178 627,380 294,719 332,661 638,031 299,395 338,636
45-49 411,819 182,872 228,947 444,754 199,966 244,788 480,432 218,692 261,740 514,564 236,659 277,905 544,125 252,174 291,950
50-54 330,050 146,203 183,847 336,433 148,144 188,290 344,264 150,862 193,402 356,876 156,309 200,567 376,286 165,668 210,619
55-59 267,384 118,733 148,650 275,287 122,485 152,801 285,566 127,198 158,368 295,993 131,778 164,216 305,188 135,572 169,616
60-64 255,714 111,632 144,082 252,231 110,349 141,882 246,872 108,286 138,585 242,857 106,818 136,039 242,365 106,865 135,500
65-69 182,641 78,963 103,678 195,639 84,711 110,929 208,358 90,342 118,016 218,273 94,769 123,503 223,861 97,342 126,519
70-74 120,041 51,033 69,008 125,063 53,318 71,745 129,941 55,477 74,464 135,892 58,086 77,806 143,582 61,464 82,119
75-79 59,619 23,308 36,312 65,554 26,266 39,288 72,370 29,598 42,773 78,978 32,773 46,205 84,722 35,477 49,245
80 + 59,399 22,230 37,169 58,241 21,678 36,563 57,449 21,322 36,127 57,560 21,411 36,149 58,837 22,062 36,775
Total 10,420,602 5,084,066 5,336,535 10,578,899 5,166,348 5,412,551 10,737,372 5,248,691 5,488,681 10,895,745 5,330,960 5,564,786 11,053,653 5,412,975 5,640,678

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,540,549 795,038 745,511 1,551,158 801,134 750,023 1,559,869 806,237 753,633 1,566,607 810,305 756,302 1,571,343 813,328 758,016
5-9 1,432,889 736,459 696,430 1,449,402 745,578 703,824 1,465,345 754,413 710,933 1,480,584 762,887 717,696 1,494,853 770,858 723,995
10-14 1,264,877 651,871 613,006 1,282,075 661,387 620,688 1,298,508 670,532 627,977 1,314,304 679,366 634,938 1,329,566 687,934 641,632
15-19 1,071,484 556,778 514,706 1,073,864 560,090 513,774 1,080,959 565,879 515,080 1,092,458 573,988 518,470 1,108,035 584,247 523,788
20-24 972,154 485,248 486,906 961,509 480,321 481,188 945,922 472,802 473,120 927,619 463,860 463,759 908,735 454,612 454,123
25-29 816,770 392,478 424,292 840,103 404,425 435,678 862,943 416,181 446,762 881,474 425,757 455,718 892,880 431,695 461,184
30-34 724,431 342,127 382,304 730,440 344,847 385,593 738,670 348,517 390,153 750,443 353,969 396,474 766,264 361,570 404,695
35-39 681,604 316,104 365,500 682,668 316,973 365,696 683,923 318,235 365,688 686,084 319,884 366,200 689,700 321,946 367,754
40-44 646,815 302,571 344,244 653,629 304,301 349,328 658,761 305,047 353,713 662,517 305,386 357,131 665,234 305,762 359,472
45-49 568,271 264,818 303,453 587,842 275,044 312,798 603,473 283,048 320,424 616,323 289,268 327,055 627,274 294,069 333,205
50-54 403,154 179,307 223,847 435,871 196,310 239,561 471,305 214,926 256,380 505,264 232,813 272,451 534,789 248,315 286,475
55-59 312,378 138,152 174,226 318,571 140,070 178,501 326,141 142,725 183,416 338,255 147,969 190,286 356,829 156,926 199,903
60-64 246,214 108,812 137,402 253,629 112,324 141,305 263,198 116,697 146,501 272,875 120,930 151,946 281,403 124,430 156,973
65-69 224,576 97,833 126,742 221,550 96,741 124,809 216,918 94,981 121,937 213,504 93,759 119,746 213,205 93,872 119,333
70-74 153,363 65,756 87,607 164,526 70,642 93,884 175,399 75,405 99,995 183,852 79,133 104,720 188,620 81,292 107,328
75-79 89,333 37,593 51,740 93,180 39,306 53,874 96,970 40,951 56,019 101,615 42,952 58,663 107,591 45,533 62,058
80 + 61,247 23,253 37,993 64,513 24,846 39,667 68,322 26,676 41,646 72,311 28,559 43,752 76,277 30,392 45,886
Total 11,210,109 5,494,197 5,715,911 11,364,531 5,574,338 5,790,193 11,516,627 5,653,251 5,863,376 11,666,090 5,730,785 5,935,305 11,812,599 5,806,780 6,005,820

113
 Table 41: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,303,789 659,229 644,559 1,305,497 662,044 643,453 1,311,365 666,951 644,413 1,321,014 673,767 647,247 1,334,065 682,296 651,769
5-9 1,319,754 663,238 656,516 1,312,532 660,169 652,363 1,298,590 653,557 645,033 1,280,889 644,961 635,928 1,262,335 635,909 626,427
10-14 1,118,599 559,110 559,489 1,156,860 579,701 577,159 1,195,017 600,358 594,659 1,227,754 618,203 609,551 1,251,024 631,054 619,970
15-19 927,515 467,642 459,874 937,893 473,457 464,437 951,291 480,693 470,597 969,489 490,530 478,959 993,224 503,520 489,704
20-24 801,140 389,921 411,220 802,237 391,254 410,982 803,700 393,134 410,566 806,343 395,559 410,785 810,789 398,565 412,225
25-29 724,365 349,765 374,600 730,564 351,280 379,284 734,941 351,706 383,235 737,889 351,716 386,173 739,813 351,826 387,987
30-34 625,493 297,063 328,429 645,513 307,812 337,700 661,172 316,068 345,104 673,783 322,345 351,438 684,341 327,070 357,270
35-39 436,824 195,992 240,832 470,720 213,782 256,938 507,423 233,254 274,169 542,404 251,861 290,543 572,503 267,820 304,684
40-44 350,187 155,577 194,610 356,043 157,159 198,884 363,396 159,547 203,849 375,753 164,792 210,961 395,213 174,123 221,090
45-49 293,400 130,878 162,522 301,380 134,613 166,767 311,970 139,405 172,565 322,730 144,055 178,675 332,149 147,848 184,301
50-54 296,673 130,902 165,772 292,254 129,149 163,105 285,625 126,468 159,157 280,529 124,473 156,056 279,501 124,244 155,257
55-59 227,681 99,571 128,110 243,481 106,553 136,928 259,001 113,415 145,585 271,123 118,802 152,322 277,943 121,893 156,050
60-64 165,319 71,392 93,926 171,895 74,382 97,513 178,150 77,137 101,013 185,757 80,460 105,297 195,661 84,809 110,852
65-69 97,570 38,968 58,602 106,760 43,641 63,120 117,527 49,005 68,522 128,031 54,151 73,880 137,127 58,518 78,609
70-74 80,952 30,882 50,070 77,649 29,422 48,227 74,459 28,129 46,331 73,338 27,861 45,477 75,368 29,077 46,291
75-79 54,801 21,069 33,732 57,068 21,743 35,325 59,335 22,532 36,804 60,512 22,922 37,591 60,177 22,713 37,464
80 + 68,667 27,771 40,896 65,599 26,357 39,242 63,212 25,121 38,091 61,686 24,219 37,466 60,966 23,673 37,294
Total 8,892,730 4,288,972 4,603,758 9,033,946 4,362,518 4,671,428 9,176,174 4,436,481 4,739,693 9,319,023 4,510,676 4,808,348 9,462,201 4,584,959 4,877,242

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,344,623 688,098 656,526 1,353,975 693,282 660,693 1,362,327 697,958 664,369 1,369,838 702,227 667,611 1,376,581 706,168 670,413
5-9 1,261,184 637,164 624,019 1,264,500 640,677 623,823 1,271,850 646,235 625,616 1,282,866 653,662 629,204 1,297,137 662,766 634,371
10-14 1,252,571 632,661 619,910 1,245,232 629,554 615,678 1,231,485 623,053 608,432 1,214,149 614,658 599,491 1,195,971 605,828 590,143
15-19 1,022,593 519,755 502,838 1,055,845 538,245 517,599 1,088,869 556,743 532,126 1,116,822 572,588 544,234 1,136,037 583,775 552,262
20-24 816,606 401,859 414,747 823,783 405,556 418,226 833,565 410,446 423,120 847,484 417,528 429,956 866,130 427,255 438,875
25-29 740,951 352,282 388,669 741,722 353,160 388,562 742,807 354,533 388,275 744,975 356,406 388,569 748,803 358,813 389,989
30-34 692,972 330,221 362,751 699,531 331,830 367,701 704,353 332,414 371,938 707,794 332,614 375,181 710,225 332,919 377,306
35-39 596,880 280,720 316,159 616,416 291,043 325,372 631,813 299,021 332,791 644,317 305,141 339,175 654,864 309,807 345,057
40-44 422,460 187,926 234,534 455,773 205,216 250,557 491,863 224,155 267,708 526,353 242,302 284,051 556,168 257,940 298,227
45-49 339,400 150,330 189,070 345,558 152,087 193,471 353,187 154,632 198,555 365,703 159,964 205,739 385,168 169,290 215,878
50-54 283,521 126,248 157,273 291,696 130,091 161,604 302,405 134,963 167,442 313,293 139,705 173,588 322,899 143,626 179,273
55-59 278,737 122,393 156,344 274,838 120,893 153,945 268,866 118,528 150,337 264,340 116,810 147,530 263,650 116,752 146,898
60-64 208,413 90,422 117,991 223,106 96,881 126,224 237,530 103,230 134,301 248,823 108,229 140,593 255,240 111,136 144,104
65-69 144,338 61,895 82,443 150,214 64,563 85,651 155,849 67,050 88,799 162,711 70,055 92,656 171,622 73,972 97,651
70-74 80,721 31,849 48,872 88,547 35,772 52,776 97,644 40,246 57,397 106,510 44,536 61,974 114,233 48,196 66,038
75-79 58,905 22,079 36,826 56,591 21,073 35,518 54,439 20,225 34,214 53,871 20,151 33,721 55,666 21,171 34,495
80 + 60,407 23,272 37,135 60,607 23,182 37,425 61,043 23,191 37,851 61,152 23,077 38,075 60,725 22,755 37,969
Total 9,605,283 4,659,176 4,946,108 9,747,931 4,733,105 5,014,827 9,889,893 4,806,621 5,083,272 10,031,000 4,879,653 5,151,347 10,171,119 4,952,168 5,218,950

114
 Table 41: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,382,450 709,731 672,719 1,387,501 712,920 674,581 1,391,740 715,723 676,016 1,395,040 718,059 676,981 1,397,149 719,793 677,356
5-9 1,308,835 669,147 639,688 1,319,292 674,931 644,361 1,328,652 680,199 648,452 1,337,022 685,017 652,005 1,344,498 689,428 655,070
10-14 1,194,231 606,810 587,421 1,196,681 609,939 586,742 1,202,877 614,996 587,881 1,212,438 621,790 590,648 1,224,962 630,117 594,845
15-19 1,135,387 584,526 550,861 1,126,660 580,930 545,731 1,112,119 574,202 537,917 1,094,315 565,718 528,597 1,075,729 556,810 518,919
20-24 889,493 439,657 449,836 916,056 453,877 462,179 942,212 467,988 474,224 963,757 479,740 484,017 977,554 487,457 490,096
25-29 753,856 361,477 392,379 760,150 364,503 395,646 768,799 368,579 400,220 781,164 374,576 406,588 797,754 382,872 414,882
30-34 711,835 333,552 378,283 713,055 334,586 378,469 714,523 336,074 378,449 716,960 338,000 378,960 720,916 340,379 380,538
35-39 663,547 312,984 350,562 670,241 314,704 355,536 675,236 315,439 359,797 678,839 315,775 363,064 681,385 316,163 365,223
40-44 580,456 270,664 309,793 600,073 280,928 319,145 615,668 288,936 326,733 628,423 295,132 333,290 639,229 299,889 339,341
45-49 412,254 182,993 229,260 445,309 200,129 245,180 481,126 218,907 262,219 515,412 236,935 278,477 545,137 252,520 292,617
50-54 330,404 146,280 184,124 336,862 148,239 188,623 344,772 150,979 193,793 357,476 156,453 201,023 376,995 165,847 211,147
55-59 267,708 118,788 148,919 275,680 122,555 153,126 286,037 127,284 158,752 296,548 131,885 164,663 305,829 135,701 170,128
60-64 256,117 111,679 144,438 252,699 110,406 142,293 247,396 108,354 139,041 243,434 106,898 136,536 243,000 106,959 136,041
65-69 183,035 78,995 104,041 196,138 84,752 111,386 208,966 90,396 118,571 218,989 94,836 124,152 224,673 97,423 127,250
70-74 120,415 51,051 69,364 125,527 53,341 72,186 130,494 55,506 74,988 136,539 58,123 78,416 144,332 61,509 82,822
75-79 59,900 23,316 36,584 65,919 26,277 39,642 72,832 29,613 43,219 79,541 32,793 46,748 85,386 35,503 49,884
80 + 59,787 22,237 37,551 58,722 21,686 37,036 58,020 21,332 36,688 58,221 21,423 36,798 59,595 22,076 37,519
Total 10,309,711 5,023,888 5,285,823 10,446,563 5,094,703 5,351,861 10,581,467 5,164,508 5,416,959 10,714,117 5,233,153 5,480,964 10,844,122 5,300,444 5,543,678

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,397,480 720,587 676,893 1,395,786 720,320 675,466 1,391,968 718,940 673,028 1,385,980 716,422 669,557 1,377,821 712,770 665,051
5-9 1,351,039 693,394 657,645 1,356,725 696,952 659,773 1,361,577 700,097 661,481 1,365,490 702,755 662,734 1,368,225 704,797 663,429
10-14 1,234,921 635,770 599,151 1,243,630 640,806 602,824 1,251,243 645,311 605,932 1,257,882 649,357 608,525 1,263,655 652,994 610,661
15-19 1,071,909 556,844 515,065 1,071,793 558,804 512,989 1,074,972 562,483 512,489 1,081,096 567,705 513,391 1,089,802 574,282 515,520
20-24 974,086 486,321 487,765 963,669 481,542 482,127 948,306 474,172 474,135 930,230 465,380 464,851 911,583 456,282 455,301
25-29 818,535 393,450 425,085 842,143 405,577 436,567 865,278 417,532 447,746 884,114 427,320 456,794 895,820 433,476 462,344
30-34 725,978 342,923 383,054 732,189 345,770 386,418 740,637 349,581 391,055 752,650 355,193 397,457 768,736 362,974 405,761
35-39 683,056 316,793 366,263 684,295 317,769 366,526 685,733 319,148 366,585 688,088 320,924 367,164 691,910 323,123 368,787
40-44 648,178 303,151 345,027 655,164 304,974 350,190 660,475 305,820 354,655 664,416 306,265 358,152 667,324 306,755 360,569
45-49 569,456 265,241 304,215 589,206 275,552 313,654 605,022 283,650 321,372 618,064 289,969 328,095 629,214 294,876 334,338
50-54 404,000 179,535 224,465 436,886 196,600 240,286 472,518 215,293 257,225 506,696 233,270 273,425 536,451 248,871 287,580
55-59 313,112 138,307 174,805 319,405 140,254 179,151 327,086 142,943 184,143 339,334 148,232 191,102 358,073 157,246 200,827
60-64 246,924 108,925 138,000 254,437 112,463 141,974 264,121 116,867 147,254 273,929 121,137 152,792 282,595 124,677 157,918
65-69 225,475 97,930 127,545 222,526 96,857 125,669 217,963 95,118 122,845 214,625 93,919 120,706 214,419 94,062 120,357
70-74 154,240 65,815 88,425 165,558 70,721 94,836 176,604 75,509 101,095 185,235 79,267 105,968 190,169 81,459 108,710
75-79 90,103 37,627 52,476 94,062 39,352 54,710 97,974 41,012 56,962 102,760 43,032 59,728 108,906 45,638 63,267
80 + 62,121 23,272 38,848 65,525 24,873 40,652 69,493 26,715 42,778 73,661 28,613 45,048 77,826 30,465 47,361
Total 10,970,612 5,365,886 5,604,726 11,092,996 5,429,184 5,663,811 11,210,972 5,490,191 5,720,781 11,324,248 5,548,761 5,775,487 11,432,529 5,604,747 5,827,782

115
 Table 42: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario
5 year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,298,612 656,598 642,015 1,289,881 654,104 635,777 1,279,930 650,962 628,968 1,268,243 646,913 621,330 1,254,249 641,655 612,593
5-9 1,319,785 663,258 656,526 1,312,628 660,234 652,394 1,298,790 653,691 645,099 1,281,242 645,198 636,044 1,262,909 636,294 626,616
10-14 1,118,618 559,123 559,495 1,156,920 579,742 577,178 1,195,146 600,447 594,698 1,227,983 618,362 609,621 1,251,387 631,307 620,080
15-19 927,533 467,654 459,879 937,948 473,494 464,454 951,403 480,771 470,633 969,684 490,664 479,020 993,529 503,732 489,797
20-24 801,162 389,936 411,225 802,302 391,301 411,000 803,832 393,230 410,602 806,567 395,722 410,845 811,132 398,816 412,316
25-29 724,386 349,780 374,605 730,628 351,327 379,302 735,073 351,802 383,270 738,111 351,879 386,232 740,154 352,077 388,077
30-34 625,510 297,076 328,434 645,568 307,852 337,716 661,287 316,152 345,135 673,982 322,490 351,492 684,650 327,296 357,353
35-39 436,836 196,000 240,836 470,759 213,809 256,950 507,510 233,316 274,195 542,562 251,973 290,589 572,758 268,002 304,757
40-44 350,197 155,584 194,613 356,073 157,179 198,893 363,456 159,588 203,868 375,858 164,863 210,994 395,380 174,238 221,142
45-49 293,408 130,883 162,525 301,404 134,629 166,775 312,021 139,440 172,581 322,818 144,116 178,702 332,286 147,943 184,343
50-54 296,681 130,907 165,774 292,278 129,165 163,113 285,671 126,499 159,172 280,604 124,523 156,080 279,614 124,321 155,294
55-59 227,688 99,576 128,112 243,502 106,567 136,935 259,047 113,445 145,602 271,204 118,854 152,350 278,067 121,974 156,093
60-64 165,325 71,396 93,929 171,914 74,394 97,520 178,188 77,160 101,028 185,824 80,501 105,323 195,766 84,874 110,892
65-69 97,574 38,970 58,604 106,775 43,649 63,126 117,559 49,023 68,536 128,088 54,184 73,904 137,219 58,572 78,647
70-74 80,957 30,885 50,072 77,663 29,429 48,234 74,487 28,143 46,344 73,381 27,884 45,498 75,434 29,112 46,322
75-79 54,806 21,072 33,734 57,083 21,750 35,332 59,364 22,547 36,817 60,561 22,947 37,614 60,249 22,750 37,499
80 + 68,674 27,775 40,899 65,618 26,368 39,250 63,249 25,141 38,107 61,744 24,252 37,492 61,053 23,721 37,332
Total 8,887,752 4,286,474 4,601,278 9,018,944 4,354,994 4,663,950 9,146,013 4,421,358 4,724,655 9,268,458 4,485,327 4,783,131 9,385,837 4,546,682 4,839,154

5 year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,236,777 633,119 603,659 1,217,111 623,438 593,673 1,195,354 612,680 582,674 1,178,338 604,399 573,940 1,166,349 598,750 567,600
5-9 1,257,048 635,190 621,858 1,250,558 633,751 616,807 1,242,843 631,678 611,165 1,233,330 628,691 604,639 1,221,397 624,457 596,939
10-14 1,253,107 633,028 620,079 1,245,990 630,066 615,924 1,232,516 623,741 608,775 1,215,483 615,545 599,937 1,197,667 606,950 590,716
15-19 1,023,055 520,073 502,982 1,056,518 538,703 517,815 1,089,813 557,378 532,435 1,118,071 573,424 544,647 1,137,626 584,832 552,794
20-24 817,113 402,226 414,886 824,501 406,071 418,429 834,549 411,144 423,405 848,769 418,434 430,335 867,765 428,398 439,367
25-29 741,452 352,649 388,804 742,427 353,671 388,757 743,764 355,221 388,543 746,209 357,289 388,920 750,346 359,910 390,435
30-34 693,429 330,552 362,876 700,176 332,293 367,883 705,228 333,038 372,191 708,920 333,411 375,509 711,627 333,904 377,722
35-39 597,267 280,996 316,271 616,976 291,439 325,536 632,585 299,565 333,020 645,323 305,849 339,474 656,130 310,694 345,436
40-44 422,720 188,104 234,616 456,164 205,483 250,681 492,431 224,542 267,888 527,131 242,833 284,298 557,189 258,637 298,552
45-49 339,600 150,466 189,134 345,837 152,273 193,564 353,566 154,882 198,683 366,204 160,292 205,913 385,823 169,716 216,107
50-54 283,684 126,357 157,327 291,925 130,244 161,681 302,720 135,169 167,550 313,710 139,973 173,737 323,431 143,964 179,468
55-59 278,913 122,506 156,406 275,073 121,043 154,030 269,168 118,719 150,449 264,719 117,044 147,675 264,119 117,038 147,081
60-64 208,569 90,517 118,052 223,332 97,019 126,313 237,846 103,418 134,427 249,246 108,476 140,770 255,779 111,444 144,336
65-69 144,475 61,974 82,500 150,405 64,673 85,732 156,109 67,196 88,912 163,062 70,246 92,816 172,083 74,215 97,868
70-74 80,820 31,902 48,919 88,693 35,850 52,844 97,855 40,358 57,497 106,813 44,689 62,124 114,642 48,396 66,247
75-79 59,003 22,129 36,874 56,718 21,136 35,581 54,598 20,302 34,296 54,082 20,245 33,838 55,943 21,289 34,654
80 + 60,529 23,339 37,190 60,772 23,269 37,503 61,264 23,304 37,960 61,462 23,217 38,245 61,130 22,922 38,207
Total 9,497,562 4,605,129 4,892,433 9,603,175 4,660,421 4,942,754 9,702,209 4,712,336 4,989,873 9,800,873 4,764,057 5,036,816 9,899,045 4,815,516 5,083,529

116
 Table 42: Projections of the rural population, 2012-2032 according to the low projections scenario (cont’d)
5 year 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,159,480 595,779 563,701 1,158,005 595,607 562,398 1,162,178 598,352 563,825 1,165,636 600,746 564,891 1,168,181 602,683 565,498
5-9 1,205,894 616,973 588,921 1,188,091 608,333 579,758 1,168,051 598,581 569,470 1,152,454 591,144 561,310 1,141,614 586,191 555,423
10-14 1,191,623 605,790 585,833 1,184,933 604,302 580,630 1,177,008 602,185 574,823 1,167,301 599,154 568,147 1,155,206 594,878 560,328
15-19 1,137,327 585,810 551,517 1,128,970 582,452 546,518 1,114,820 575,976 538,844 1,097,412 567,751 529,661 1,079,247 559,122 520,124
20-24 891,530 441,074 450,456 918,551 455,605 462,946 945,218 470,064 475,155 967,289 482,176 485,113 981,605 490,255 491,350
25-29 755,738 362,807 392,931 762,406 366,088 396,317 771,467 370,444 401,023 784,275 376,745 407,530 801,342 385,374 415,969
30-34 713,538 334,743 378,795 715,086 336,001 379,085 716,909 337,732 379,178 719,715 339,911 379,805 724,054 342,554 381,499
35-39 665,097 314,065 351,032 672,100 315,992 356,108 677,427 316,945 360,481 681,369 317,506 363,863 684,261 318,125 366,136
40-44 581,750 271,544 310,206 601,666 282,010 319,656 617,586 290,234 327,352 630,677 296,656 334,021 641,832 301,644 340,188
45-49 413,108 183,546 229,561 446,415 200,844 245,570 482,538 219,821 262,717 517,166 238,072 279,094 547,257 253,896 293,362
50-54 331,066 146,693 184,373 337,667 148,734 188,933 345,742 151,568 194,175 358,642 157,155 201,487 378,403 166,693 211,710
55-59 268,287 119,137 149,150 276,395 122,980 153,415 286,914 127,801 159,114 297,607 132,501 165,106 307,083 136,423 170,660
60-64 256,778 112,050 144,729 253,482 110,840 142,643 248,303 108,851 139,452 244,473 107,462 137,010 244,189 107,601 136,588
65-69 183,636 79,306 104,331 196,913 85,146 111,767 209,947 90,887 119,061 220,192 95,431 124,761 226,100 98,122 127,978
70-74 120,948 51,305 69,643 126,200 53,654 72,546 131,327 55,887 75,440 137,559 58,582 78,976 145,575 62,063 83,512
75-79 60,268 23,470 36,798 66,413 26,481 39,931 73,485 29,882 43,603 80,383 33,138 47,245 86,437 35,931 50,507
80 + 60,297 22,433 37,864 59,348 21,914 37,434 58,775 21,596 37,179 59,127 21,730 37,397 60,683 22,439 38,244
Total 9,996,365 4,866,525 5,129,840 10,092,641 4,916,984 5,175,657 10,187,694 4,966,804 5,220,891 10,281,277 5,015,859 5,265,417 10,373,069 5,063,993 5,309,076

5 year 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

age Both Both Both Both Both
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female
group sexes sexes sexes sexes sexes
0-4 1,169,260 603,862 565,398 1,168,620 604,159 564,461 1,166,059 603,452 562,607 1,161,393 601,617 559,776 1,154,535 598,612 555,923
5-9 1,135,651 583,767 551,884 1,134,874 584,030 550,844 1,139,541 587,098 552,443 1,143,416 589,753 553,663 1,146,288 591,880 554,408
10-14 1,139,592 587,416 552,175 1,121,722 578,806 542,917 1,101,676 569,094 532,582 1,085,784 561,550 524,233 1,074,343 556,337 518,005
15-19 1,071,612 557,244 514,369 1,063,300 555,004 508,297 1,053,801 552,131 501,669 1,042,670 548,385 494,284 1,029,397 543,476 485,921
20-24 978,547 489,424 489,123 968,458 484,914 483,545 953,345 477,777 475,568 935,459 469,192 466,267 916,966 460,291 456,676
25-29 822,598 396,302 426,296 846,672 408,794 437,879 870,240 421,113 449,127 889,451 431,244 458,207 901,446 437,701 463,745
30-34 729,473 345,359 384,114 736,017 348,463 387,554 744,775 352,530 392,244 757,087 358,406 398,681 773,465 366,464 407,001
35-39 686,252 318,983 367,268 687,783 320,183 367,601 689,485 321,780 367,706 692,080 323,768 368,312 696,116 326,173 369,943
40-44 651,106 305,130 345,976 658,389 307,164 351,224 663,963 308,209 355,754 668,139 308,842 359,297 671,251 309,510 361,740
45-49 571,930 266,856 305,075 592,016 277,402 314,614 608,142 285,726 322,416 621,471 292,265 329,206 632,882 297,380 335,502
50-54 405,692 180,559 225,133 438,906 197,840 241,067 474,901 216,780 258,121 509,455 235,024 274,431 539,578 250,896 288,682
55-59 314,551 139,132 175,419 321,021 141,180 179,841 328,884 143,980 184,904 341,344 149,405 191,939 360,343 158,597 201,746
60-64 248,280 109,658 138,622 255,977 113,302 142,676 265,864 117,826 148,039 275,886 122,228 153,658 284,767 125,908 158,860
65-69 227,089 98,721 128,368 224,287 97,725 126,562 219,844 96,058 123,786 216,630 94,944 121,686 216,575 95,194 121,381
70-74 155,735 66,481 89,254 167,330 71,515 95,815 178,672 76,447 102,225 187,599 80,363 107,235 192,803 82,716 110,087
75-79 91,358 38,138 53,220 95,516 39,948 55,568 99,631 41,700 57,931 104,652 43,839 60,813 111,078 46,598 64,480
80 + 63,413 23,704 39,710 67,046 25,386 41,660 71,271 27,328 43,943 75,731 29,355 46,376 80,220 31,365 48,855
Total 10,462,140 5,110,736 5,351,403 10,547,935 5,155,812 5,392,122 10,630,096 5,199,031 5,431,065 10,708,243 5,240,180 5,468,064 10,782,054 5,279,099 5,502,955

117
Table 43: Projections of the school-age population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
Projections Rwanda Urban Rural
Year 3-6 years 7-12 years 13-18 years 3-6 years 7-12 years 13-18 years 3-6 years 7-12 years 13-18 years
2012 1,233,836 1,675,012 1,373,912 172,671 228,020 220,916 1,061,165 1,446,992 1,152,996
2013 1,222,258 1,734,755 1,403,738 178,141 246,110 235,302 1,044,117 1,488,645 1,168,436
2014 1,209,312 1,785,665 1,440,851 183,443 263,664 250,777 1,025,869 1,522,001 1,190,074
2015 1,210,371 1,810,740 1,486,316 190,724 277,960 268,183 1,019,647 1,532,780 1,218,133
2016 1,218,744 1,823,541 1,539,314 199,292 290,622 287,607 1,019,452 1,532,919 1,251,707
2017 1,232,652 1,825,799 1,598,567 208,960 301,698 309,056 1,023,692 1,524,101 1,289,511
2018 1,251,625 1,820,362 1,660,932 219,646 311,375 332,131 1,031,979 1,508,987 1,328,801
2019 1,275,171 1,810,665 1,720,768 231,367 320,260 355,717 1,043,804 1,490,405 1,365,051
2020 1,296,371 1,806,601 1,771,862 242,972 330,059 378,383 1,053,399 1,476,542 1,393,479
2021 1,316,661 1,821,509 1,797,326 254,679 343,461 396,485 1,061,982 1,478,048 1,400,841
2022 1,336,205 1,841,610 1,810,579 266,503 358,059 412,100 1,069,702 1,483,551 1,398,479
2023 1,355,047 1,866,575 1,813,318 278,509 374,010 424,821 1,076,538 1,492,565 1,388,497
2024 1,373,242 1,896,149 1,808,373 290,643 391,293 435,646 1,082,599 1,504,856 1,372,727
2025 1,391,017 1,929,859 1,799,169 302,961 409,911 445,323 1,088,056 1,519,948 1,353,846
2026 1,408,324 1,960,814 1,795,529 315,463 428,423 456,130 1,092,861 1,532,391 1,339,399
2027 1,425,155 1,990,511 1,810,701 328,153 447,150 471,934 1,097,002 1,543,361 1,338,767
2028 1,441,448 2,019,192 1,831,017 341,069 466,242 489,590 1,100,379 1,552,950 1,341,427
2029 1,456,975 2,047,076 1,856,171 354,077 485,606 509,019 1,102,898 1,561,470 1,347,152
2030 1,471,592 2,074,101 1,885,908 367,127 505,216 530,246 1,104,465 1,568,885 1,355,662
2031 1,484,604 2,100,335 1,919,756 380,017 525,077 553,227 1,104,587 1,575,258 1,366,529
2032 1,495,477 2,125,792 1,950,874 392,573 545,179 575,919 1,102,904 1,580,613 1,374,955

118
Table 44: Projections of the working-age population, 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
Projections Rwanda Urban Rural
Year Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
2012 5,603,525 2,662,970 2,940,555 1,053,860 556,123 497,737 4,549,665 2,106,847 2,442,818
2013 5,780,720 2,751,025 3,029,695 1,125,822 559,993 565,829 4,654,898 2,191,032 2,463,866
2014 5,959,238 2,839,547 3,119,691 1,203,444 599,119 604,325 4,755,794 2,240,428 2,515,366
2015 6,140,014 2,929,105 3,210,909 1,283,925 639,693 644,232 4,856,089 2,289,412 2,566,677
2016 6,326,257 3,021,421 3,304,836 1,367,839 682,001 685,838 4,958,418 2,339,420 2,618,998
2017 6,521,561 3,118,443 3,403,118 1,455,971 726,430 729,541 5,065,590 2,392,013 2,673,577
2018 6,728,045 3,221,332 3,506,713 1,549,059 773,347 775,712 5,178,986 2,447,985 2,731,001
2019 6,945,382 3,329,939 3,615,443 1,647,219 822,801 824,418 5,298,163 2,507,138 2,791,025
2020 7,171,128 3,443,043 3,728,085 1,750,277 874,719 875,558 5,420,851 2,568,324 2,852,527
2021 7,401,495 3,558,734 3,842,761 1,857,746 928,884 928,862 5,543,749 2,629,850 2,913,899
2022 7,632,688 3,675,079 3,957,609 1,968,986 985,007 983,979 5,663,702 2,690,072 2,973,630
2023 7,861,073 3,790,233 4,070,840 2,083,511 1,042,817 1,040,694 5,777,562 2,747,416 3,030,146
2024 8,072,324 3,896,998 4,175,326 2,197,189 1,100,509 1,096,680 5,875,135 2,796,489 3,078,646
2025 8,281,437 4,002,745 4,278,692 2,313,393 1,159,574 1,153,819 5,968,044 2,843,171 3,124,873
2026 8,490,623 4,108,426 4,382,197 2,432,396 1,220,126 1,212,270 6,058,227 2,888,300 3,169,927
2027 8,701,405 4,214,692 4,486,713 2,554,381 1,282,230 1,272,151 6,147,024 2,932,462 3,214,562
2028 8,914,391 4,321,787 4,592,604 2,678,865 1,345,579 1,333,286 6,235,526 2,976,208 3,259,318
2029 9,135,604 4,434,548 4,701,056 2,808,047 1,411,675 1,396,372 6,327,557 3,022,873 3,304,684
2030 9,362,263 4,549,883 4,812,380 2,941,334 1,479,806 1,461,528 6,420,929 3,070,077 3,350,852
2031 9,592,405 4,666,919 4,925,486 3,078,351 1,549,791 1,528,560 6,514,054 3,117,128 3,396,926
2032 9,824,600 4,785,024 5,039,576 3,218,815 1,621,495 1,597,320 6,605,785 3,163,529 3,442,256

119
Table 45: Projections of the elderly (60 years and above), 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
Projections Rwanda Urban Rural
Year Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
2012 510,156 206,635 303,521 52,662 22,982 29,680 457,494 183,653 273,841
2013 524,361 213,221 311,140 57,053 23,138 33,915 467,309 190,083 277,226
2014 540,319 220,571 319,748 61,347 25,026 36,321 478,971 195,545 283,426
2015 558,796 229,046 329,750 66,112 27,123 38,989 492,684 201,923 290,761
2016 580,818 239,112 341,706 71,494 29,499 41,995 509,323 209,612 299,711
2017 606,901 250,996 355,905 77,601 32,206 45,395 529,300 218,790 310,510
2018 637,317 264,812 372,505 84,533 35,295 49,238 552,784 229,517 323,267
2019 671,317 280,208 391,109 92,252 38,738 53,514 579,065 241,471 337,594
2020 707,059 296,377 410,682 100,555 42,435 58,120 606,504 253,941 352,563
2021 742,198 312,287 429,911 109,131 46,238 62,893 633,066 266,048 367,018
2022 775,241 327,262 447,979 117,755 50,033 67,722 657,487 277,229 380,258
2023 805,585 341,046 464,539 126,330 53,768 72,562 679,255 287,278 391,977
2024 833,919 353,936 479,983 134,913 57,473 77,440 699,006 296,463 402,543
2025 861,370 366,424 494,946 143,663 61,223 82,440 717,707 305,201 412,506
2026 889,569 379,219 510,350 152,846 65,146 87,700 736,723 314,073 422,650
2027 919,669 392,815 526,854 162,683 69,345 93,338 756,986 323,469 433,517
2028 952,191 407,477 544,714 173,328 73,907 99,421 778,863 333,569 445,294
2029 986,853 423,079 563,774 184,747 78,813 105,934 802,106 344,266 457,840
2030 1,023,032 439,231 583,801 196,876 84,010 112,866 826,156 355,221 470,935
2031 1,059,797 455,371 604,426 209,587 89,403 120,184 850,209 365,968 484,241
2032 1,096,746 471,247 625,499 222,832 94,946 127,886 873,914 376,301 497,613

120
Table 46: Projections of the elderly (65 years and above), 2012-2032 according to the medium projections scenario
Projections Rwanda Urban Rural
Year Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female
2012 334,368 130,369 203,999 34,058 13,646 20,412 300,310 116,723 183,587
2013 338,503 132,190 206,313 36,513 13,499 23,014 301,990 118,691 183,299
2014 346,050 135,678 210,372 38,973 14,515 24,458 307,077 121,163 185,914
2015 356,386 140,514 215,872 41,852 15,727 26,125 314,534 124,787 189,747
2016 368,629 146,240 222,389 45,062 17,088 27,974 323,566 129,152 194,414
2017 382,181 152,542 229,639 48,542 18,561 29,981 333,639 133,981 199,658
2018 396,628 159,230 237,398 52,257 20,134 32,123 344,372 139,096 205,276
2019 412,216 166,413 245,803 56,256 21,824 34,432 355,959 144,589 211,370
2020 429,640 174,400 255,240 60,666 23,688 36,978 368,974 150,712 218,262
2021 449,920 183,629 266,291 65,676 25,810 39,866 384,244 157,819 226,425
2022 473,681 194,344 279,337 71,435 28,251 43,184 402,247 166,093 236,154
2023 501,194 206,653 294,541 78,057 31,055 47,002 423,137 175,598 247,539
2024 531,784 220,245 311,539 85,477 34,188 51,289 446,307 186,056 260,251
2025 563,767 234,387 329,380 93,456 37,541 55,915 470,312 196,846 273,466
2026 594,910 248,119 346,791 101,620 40,944 60,676 493,289 207,175 286,114
2027 623,669 260,782 362,887 109,683 44,272 65,411 513,986 216,511 297,475
2028 649,455 272,113 377,342 117,516 47,469 70,047 531,939 224,644 307,295
2029 672,842 282,362 390,480 125,173 50,559 74,614 547,670 231,803 315,867
2030 694,877 291,985 402,892 132,843 53,631 79,212 562,035 238,354 323,681
2031 717,134 301,664 415,470 140,853 56,832 84,021 576,281 244,832 331,449
2032 740,794 311,906 428,888 149,475 60,282 89,193 591,319 251,624 339,695

121
Table 47: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of health interventions between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence
according to the medium projections scenario
Projections 0 year 0-4 years 1-4 years 15-49 years (Females)
Year Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural
2012 313,036 46,216 266,820 1,532,834 226,305 1,306,529 1,219,798 180,089 1,039,709 2,638,451 477,864 2,160,587
2013 320,087 49,167 270,920 1,540,404 236,616 1,303,788 1,220,318 187,448 1,032,870 2,714,309 542,223 2,172,086
2014 325,392 51,968 273,424 1,553,626 248,129 1,305,497 1,228,234 196,161 1,032,073 2,793,695 578,702 2,214,993
2015 330,348 54,782 275,566 1,572,061 260,696 1,311,365 1,241,713 205,914 1,035,799 2,877,025 616,940 2,260,085
2016 335,078 57,622 277,456 1,595,359 274,345 1,321,014 1,260,281 216,724 1,043,557 2,964,689 657,155 2,307,534
2017 339,694 60,502 279,192 1,623,164 289,098 1,334,066 1,283,469 228,596 1,054,873 3,056,767 699,507 2,357,260
2018 344,124 63,424 280,700 1,648,441 303,818 1,344,623 1,304,317 240,394 1,063,923 3,152,855 744,087 2,408,768
2019 348,415 66,383 282,032 1,672,663 318,688 1,353,975 1,324,247 252,305 1,071,942 3,252,280 790,791 2,461,489
2020 352,583 69,377 283,206 1,696,055 333,728 1,362,327 1,343,472 264,351 1,079,121 3,353,961 839,449 2,514,512
2021 356,709 72,419 284,290 1,718,786 348,948 1,369,838 1,362,077 276,529 1,085,548 3,456,743 889,838 2,566,905
2022 360,858 75,523 285,335 1,740,936 364,355 1,376,581 1,380,078 288,832 1,091,246 3,559,259 941,664 2,617,595
2023 364,790 78,650 286,140 1,762,440 379,990 1,382,450 1,397,650 301,340 1,096,310 3,654,061 993,087 2,660,974
2024 368,549 81,797 286,752 1,783,292 395,791 1,387,501 1,414,743 313,994 1,100,749 3,747,406 1,045,520 2,701,886
2025 372,161 84,971 287,190 1,803,513 411,773 1,391,740 1,431,352 326,803 1,104,549 3,838,290 1,098,734 2,739,556
2026 375,527 88,150 287,377 1,822,957 427,917 1,395,040 1,447,431 339,767 1,107,664 3,925,414 1,152,420 2,772,994
2027 378,549 91,313 287,236 1,841,303 444,154 1,397,149 1,462,754 352,842 1,109,912 4,007,949 1,206,334 2,801,615
2028 380,690 94,334 286,356 1,857,849 460,369 1,397,480 1,477,159 366,035 1,111,124 4,087,105 1,260,631 2,826,474
2029 382,141 97,225 284,916 1,872,087 476,302 1,395,785 1,489,947 379,076 1,110,871 4,164,162 1,315,691 2,848,471
2030 383,244 100,063 283,181 1,883,827 491,859 1,391,968 1,500,583 391,796 1,108,787 4,239,595 1,371,558 2,868,037
2031 383,961 102,830 281,131 1,892,936 506,956 1,385,980 1,508,975 404,126 1,104,849 4,314,272 1,428,370 2,885,902
2032 384,244 105,505 278,739 1,899,338 521,517 1,377,821 1,515,095 416,012 1,099,083 4,388,877 1,486,255 2,902,622

122
Table 48: Evolution of the size of selected population groups target of children and youth interventions between 2012 and 2032 according to the
medium projections scenario
Projections 0-17 years 14-35 years 15-24 years
Year Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural
2012 4,991,864 721,054 4,270,810 4,174,823 842,648 3,332,175 2,134,864 416,262 1,718,602
2013 5,073,898 763,459 4,310,439 4,285,948 896,635 3,389,313 2,167,782 439,126 1,728,656
2014 5,157,636 807,237 4,350,399 4,392,503 952,668 3,439,835 2,202,787 462,657 1,740,130
2015 5,241,919 852,424 4,389,495 4,498,501 1,009,703 3,488,798 2,242,647 487,657 1,754,990
2016 5,326,893 899,133 4,427,760 4,607,322 1,068,494 3,538,828 2,290,769 514,936 1,775,833
2017 5,412,051 947,317 4,464,734 4,721,242 1,129,731 3,591,511 2,349,121 545,108 1,804,013
2018 5,494,720 996,296 4,498,424 4,840,379 1,193,772 3,646,607 2,417,610 578,411 1,839,199
2019 5,571,555 1,045,344 4,526,211 4,962,392 1,260,237 3,702,155 2,494,226 614,599 1,879,627
2020 5,640,568 1,093,790 4,546,778 5,083,971 1,328,606 3,755,365 2,575,621 653,187 1,922,434
2021 5,701,694 1,141,318 4,560,376 5,202,717 1,398,529 3,804,188 2,657,779 693,473 1,964,306
2022 5,756,476 1,188,024 4,568,452 5,304,330 1,467,186 3,837,144 2,736,787 734,621 2,002,166
2023 5,807,289 1,234,019 4,573,270 5,402,722 1,536,812 3,865,910 2,797,989 773,109 2,024,880
2024 5,857,160 1,280,362 4,576,798 5,498,234 1,607,700 3,890,534 2,854,389 811,673 2,042,716
2025 5,909,048 1,327,878 4,581,170 5,591,155 1,679,810 3,911,345 2,903,667 849,336 2,054,331
2026 5,977,644 1,380,649 4,596,995 5,682,044 1,753,154 3,928,890 2,942,874 884,803 2,058,071
2027 6,049,275 1,435,339 4,613,936 5,777,914 1,829,228 3,948,686 2,970,403 917,121 2,053,282
2028 6,122,941 1,492,321 4,630,620 5,877,177 1,907,306 3,969,871 2,992,976 946,981 2,045,995
2029 6,197,856 1,551,075 4,646,781 5,979,428 1,987,798 3,991,630 3,010,562 975,100 2,035,462
2030 6,273,452 1,611,475 4,661,977 6,084,090 2,070,497 4,013,593 3,025,507 1,002,228 2,023,279
2031 6,342,657 1,671,401 4,671,256 6,190,425 2,155,088 4,035,337 3,040,724 1,029,398 2,011,326
2032 6,406,690 1,731,120 4,675,570 6,297,405 2,241,175 4,056,230 3,059,120 1,057,735 2,001,385

123
Table 49: Evolution of the size of relevant legal majority age groups between 2012 and 2032 by area of residence according to the medium
projections scenario
Projections 14 years and above 16 years and above 18 years and above 21 years and above
Year Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural
2012 6,405,570 1,160,797 5,244,773 5,937,893 1,087,918 4,849,975 5,490,777 1,011,121 4,479,656 4,848,146 890,528 3,957,618
2013 6,596,602 1,239,899 5,356,703 6,119,223 1,162,336 4,956,887 5,662,873 1,080,582 4,582,291 5,011,694 953,477 4,058,217
2014 6,795,233 1,325,110 5,470,123 6,305,287 1,242,417 5,062,870 5,839,254 1,155,708 4,683,546 5,177,703 1,021,746 4,155,957
2015 7,004,506 1,414,734 5,589,772 6,496,401 1,325,777 5,170,624 6,020,645 1,233,967 4,786,678 5,346,449 1,092,528 4,253,921
2016 7,226,188 1,509,293 5,716,895 6,694,886 1,412,901 5,281,985 6,206,552 1,315,289 4,891,263 5,518,433 1,165,904 4,352,529
2017 7,460,147 1,609,027 5,851,120 6,903,741 1,504,513 5,399,228 6,397,249 1,399,782 4,997,467 5,694,352 1,242,046 4,452,306
2018 7,704,556 1,714,002 5,990,554 7,124,673 1,601,316 5,523,357 6,595,001 1,488,142 5,106,859 5,874,843 1,321,332 4,553,511
2019 7,956,601 1,823,789 6,132,812 7,357,597 1,703,475 5,654,122 6,802,843 1,581,122 5,221,721 6,059,459 1,403,656 4,655,803
2020 8,212,980 1,937,924 6,275,056 7,600,768 1,810,943 5,789,825 7,022,548 1,679,432 5,343,116 6,248,498 1,489,152 4,759,346
2021 8,470,548 2,055,902 6,414,646 7,851,415 1,923,423 5,927,992 7,254,070 1,783,445 5,470,625 6,444,343 1,578,561 4,865,782
2022 8,714,324 2,174,755 6,539,569 8,106,369 2,040,420 6,065,949 7,495,796 1,893,130 5,602,666 6,650,118 1,672,952 4,977,166
2023 8,957,448 2,296,687 6,660,761 8,362,267 2,161,568 6,200,699 7,744,746 2,008,306 5,736,440 6,867,439 1,773,344 5,094,095
2024 9,199,960 2,421,830 6,778,130 8,604,108 2,282,666 6,321,442 7,997,699 2,127,933 5,869,766 7,096,263 1,879,734 5,216,529
2025 9,441,910 2,550,127 6,891,783 8,845,205 2,406,849 6,438,356 8,251,497 2,251,199 6,000,298 7,334,889 1,991,907 5,342,982
2026 9,683,434 2,681,529 7,001,905 9,085,533 2,534,016 6,551,517 8,491,116 2,373,995 6,117,121 7,580,507 2,109,255 5,471,252
2027 9,931,135 2,817,475 7,113,660 9,325,074 2,664,063 6,661,011 8,729,767 2,499,581 6,230,186 7,829,815 2,230,917 5,598,898
2028 10,183,139 2,957,358 7,225,781 9,563,846 2,796,381 6,767,465 8,967,310 2,627,317 6,339,993 8,079,525 2,356,249 5,723,276
2029 10,438,987 3,101,406 7,337,581 9,808,446 2,933,220 6,875,226 9,203,735 2,757,520 6,446,215 8,314,668 2,479,428 5,835,240
2030 10,698,360 3,249,593 7,448,767 10,057,141 3,074,177 6,982,964 9,439,193 2,890,198 6,548,995 8,548,435 2,604,916 5,943,519
2031 10,961,067 3,401,916 7,559,151 10,309,539 3,219,205 7,090,334 9,680,333 3,027,340 6,652,993 8,780,850 2,732,669 6,048,181
2032 11,226,855 3,558,359 7,668,496 10,565,394 3,368,290 7,197,104 9,925,493 3,168,535 6,756,958 9,012,008 2,862,665 6,149,343

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Table 50: Projections of the number and size of the total private households and the newly created households, 2012-2032 according to the
medium projections scenario
Projections Year Total Population Mean size Total Households Newly households to be created
2012 10,482,641 4.3 2,437,823
2013 10,736,771 4.2 2,532,257 94,434
2014 10,996,891 4.2 2,630,835 98,578
2015 11,262,564 4.1 2,733,632 102,797
2016 11,533,445 4.1 2,840,750 107,118
2017 11,809,300 4.0 2,952,325 111,575
2018 12,089,721 3.9 3,068,457 116,132
2019 12,374,397 3.9 3,189,278 120,820
2020 12,663,116 3.8 3,314,952 125,674
2021 12,955,763 3.8 3,445,682 130,730
2022 13,252,272 3.7 3,581,695 136,013
2023 13,552,035 3.6 3,723,087 141,391
2024 13,854,858 3.6 3,870,072 146,986
2025 14,160,545 3.5 4,022,882 152,810
2026 14,468,760 3.5 4,181,723 158,840
2027 14,779,042 3.4 4,346,777 165,055
2028 15,090,251 3.3 4,518,039 171,262
2029 15,401,591 3.3 4,695,607 177,568
2030 15,712,645 3.2 4,879,703 184,096
2031 16,022,989 3.2 5,070,566 190,863
2032 16,332,184 3.1 5,268,446 197,880

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Table 51: Projections of the number and size of the urban private households and the newly created households, 2012-2032 according to the
medium projections scenario

Projections Year Urban Population Mean size Total Households Newly households to be created
2012 1,732,175 4.1 422,482
2013 1,844,040 4.1 455,319 32,837
2014 1,962,945 4.0 490,736 35,418
2015 2,086,390 4.0 528,200 37,464
2016 2,214,421 3.9 567,800 39,600
2017 2,347,098 3.9 609,636 41,836
2018 2,484,438 3.8 653,799 44,164
2019 2,626,466 3.8 700,391 46,591
2020 2,773,222 3.7 749,519 49,129
2021 2,924,764 3.7 801,305 51,786
2022 3,081,153 3.6 855,876 54,571
2023 3,242,324 3.6 913,331 57,455
2024 3,408,295 3.5 973,799 60,468
2025 3,579,078 3.5 1,037,414 63,615
2026 3,754,643 3.4 1,104,307 66,893
2027 3,934,920 3.4 1,174,603 70,296
2028 4,119,638 3.3 1,248,375 73,772
2029 4,308,595 3.3 1,325,722 77,346
2030 4,501,673 3.2 1,406,773 81,051
2031 4,698,742 3.2 1,491,664 84,891
2032 4,899,655 3.1 1,580,534 88,870

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Table 52: Projections of the number and size of the rural private households and the newly created households, 2012-2032 according to the
medium projections scenario
Projections Year Rural Population Mean size Total Households Newly households to be created
2012 8,750,466 4.3 2,015,342
2013 8,892,731 4.3 2,076,939 61,597
2014 9,033,946 4.2 2,140,099 63,160
2015 9,176,174 4.2 2,205,432 65,333
2016 9,319,024 4.1 2,272,950 67,518
2017 9,462,202 4.0 2,342,689 69,739
2018 9,605,283 4.0 2,414,658 71,968
2019 9,747,931 3.9 2,488,887 74,229
2020 9,889,894 3.9 2,565,432 76,546
2021 10,030,999 3.8 2,644,376 78,944
2022 10,171,119 3.7 2,725,819 81,443
2023 10,309,711 3.7 2,809,756 83,937
2024 10,446,563 3.6 2,896,273 86,518
2025 10,581,467 3.5 2,985,468 89,195
2026 10,714,117 3.5 3,077,416 91,948
2027 10,844,122 3.4 3,172,174 94,758
2028 10,970,613 3.4 3,269,664 97,490
2029 11,092,996 3.3 3,369,885 100,221
2030 11,210,972 3.2 3,472,931 103,045
2031 11,324,247 3.2 3,578,902 105,971
2032 11,432,529 3.1 3,687,913 109,011

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 PERSONS AND INSTITUTIONS THAT CONTRIBUTED TO
THE FOURTH RWANDA POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS, 2012

National Census Commission

Chairperson:
Claver GATETE Minister of Finance and Economic Planning
John RWANGOMBWA Former Minister of Finance and Economic Planning
Vice Chairperson:
James MUSONI Minister of Local Government
Secretary:
Yusuf MURANGWA Director General of NISR
Dr. Diane KARUSISI Former Acting Director General of NISR

Members of the National Census Commission

Venantia TUGIREYEZU Minister in the Office of the President

Stella Ford MUGABO Minister of Cabinet Affairs
James KABAREBE Minister of Defense
Sheikh Mussa HARERIMANA Minister of Internal Security
Louise MUSHIKIWABO Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation
Dr. Vincent BIRUTA Minister of Education
Dr. Mathias HAREBAMUNGU Minister of State in charge of Primary and Secondary Education
Dr. Agnes BINAGWAHO Minister of Health
Odda GASINZIGWA Minister in Prime Minister‟s Office in charge of Gender and Family Promotion
Jean Philbert NSENGIMANA Minister of Youth and ICT
Prof. Silas LWAKABAMBA Minister of Infrastructure
Albert NSENGIYUMVA Former Minister of Infrastructure
Anastase MUREKEZI Minister of Public Service and Labour
Stanislas KAMANZI Minister of Natural Resources
Willy RUKUNDO Former Acting Director General of ORINFOR
Arthur ASIIMWE Director General of RBA
Hannington NAMARA CEO of the Private Sector Federation
Robert BAYIGAMBA Former CEO of the Private Sector Federation

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 National Technical Committee
Chairperson:
Leonard MINEGA RUGWABIZA
Former Director of National Development Planning and Research in MINECOFIN
Vice Chairperson:
Egide RUGAMBA Director General of Planning in MINALOC
Secretary:
Prosper NKAKA MUTIJIMA Census Coordinator of the RPHC4

Members of the National Technical Committee

Dr. Agnes NTIBANYURWA Assistant Representative of UNFPA in charge of Population and Development
Director General of Rwanda Housing Authority
Esther MUTAMBA Director General of Labour and Employment
Anna MUGABO Director General of Education
Dr. Erasme RWANAMIZA Director of Planning in MINIRENA
Innocent MUSABYIMANA Director of Planning and M&E in MIGEPROF
Jeanne d‟Arc UMULISA Director of Planning in MINISANTE
Parfait UWARIRAYE Director of Youth Employment and Program Coordination
Redempter BATETE MUKUNZI Former Executive Director of IPAR-Rwanda
Antonio MUTORO

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 Branches of the National Census Commission
Members of the Branches of the NCC at Province Level (Governors of Provinces)

Kigali City:
Fidele NDAYISABA, Mayor

Sothern Province:
Alphonse MUNYENTWARI, Governor

Western Province:
Celestin KABAHIZI, Former Governor
Caritas MUKANDASIRA, Governor

Northern Province:
Aime BOSENIBAMWE, Governor

Eastern Province:
Odette UWAMARIYA, Governor
Members of the Branches of the NCC at District Level (Mayors of Districts)

Solange MUKASONGA Nyarugenge District Gedeon RUBONEKA Ngororero District

Willy NDIZEYE Gasabo District Oscar NZEYIMANA Rusizi District
Paul Jules NDAMAGE Kicukiro District Jean Baptiste HABYARIMANA Nyamasheke District
Abdallah MURENZI Nyanza District Justus KANGWAGYE Rulindo District
Leandres KAREKAZI Gisagara District Deogratias NZAMWITA Gakenke District
Francois HABITEGEKO Nyaruguru District Winifrida MPEBYEMUNGU Musanze District
Eugene MUZUKA KAYIRANGA Huye District Samuel SEMBAGARE Burera District
Philbert MUGISHA Nyamagabe District Alexandre MVUYEKURE Gicumbi District
Francois Xavier MBABAZI Ruhango District Nehemie UWIMANA Rwamagana District
Yvonne MTAKWASUKU Muhanga District Fred SABITI ATUHE Nyagatare District
Jacques RUTSINGA Kamonyi District Ambrose RUBONEZA Gatsibo District
Bernard KAYUMBA Karongi District John MUGABO Kayonza District
Gaspard BYUKUSENGE Rutsiro District Protais MURAYIRE Kirehe District
Sheikh Hassan BAHAME Rubavu District Aphrodice NAMBAJE Ngoma District

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Abdoulatif TWAHIRWA Nyabihu District Louis RWAGAJU Bugesera District
National Directors
Yusuf MURANGWA, Director General of NISR
Dr. Diane KARUSISI, Former Acting Director General of NISR

Census Technical Director

Willy MPABUKA GASAFARI

Census National Coordinator

Prosper NKAKA MUTIJIMA

Census Field Operations

Census National Coordinators

Prosper NKAKA MUTIJIMA National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda

Major-General Jacques MUSEMAKWELI Rwanda Defence Force
Eric KAYIRANGA Rwanda National Police
Alex MUGISHA Rwanda Correctional Services

Census Province Coordinators

Juvenal MUNYARUGERERO Kigali City

Baudouin RUTERANA Southern Province
Willy MPABUKA GASAFARI Western Province
Francois SEKAMONDO Northern Province
Astrid SEGAHWEGE Eastern Province

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 Census District Coordinators

Jean Nepo. RWABUKUMBA Nyarugenge District Patrick NSHIMIYIMANA Rusizi District

Franck Mine Gasabo District Jean BIZIMANA Nyamasheke District
Jean Paul RUSHAKU Kicukiro District Issa MUSABEMUNGU Rulindo District
Francois ABALIKUMWE Nyanza District Clement BIZIMUNGU Gakenke District
Evelyne KANYONGA Gisagara District Beatrice UWAYEZU Musanze District
Etienne KWIZERA Nyaruguru District Esther MAHUKU Burera District
Juvenal NTAMBARA Huye District Vital HABINSHUTI Gicumbi District
Albert KARERA Nyamagabe District Ephrem RUKUNDO Rwamagana District
Annonciata MUKABAGIRE Ruhango District Dominique M. KANOBANA Nyagatare District
Francois KABAYIZA Muhanga District Nicolas MWIZERWA Nyagatare District
Andre KAJABIKA Kamonyi District David MASENGEHO Gatsibo District
Jean Baptiste SERUGENDO Karongi District Venuste NKURUNZIZA Kayonza District
Jean Marc MUKUNDABANTU Rutsiro District Basile NJAMAHORO Kirehe District
Jean MUGABO Rubavu District Dominique MICOMYIZA Ngoma District
Immaculee MUKANGENDO Nyabihu District Eugene UWIRAGIYE Ngoma District
Olivier MBANGUTSE Ngororero District Florence UWIMBABAZI Bugesera District
Wellars MUDASHIMA Rusizi District

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 Zone and Sector Controllers and Enumerators

Zone Controllers:
127 (mostly Districts Education Officers and Headmasters of some Secondary Schools)

Sector Controllers:
451 (mostly Sector Education Officers)

Enumerators:
24,005 (mostly Primary School Teachers)

Cartography and Data Processing

Programmer: Cartography:
Augustin TWAGIRUMUKIZA, Director of ICT Florent BIGIRIMANA
Assistant Programmers: Olivier MBANGUTSE
Didier UYIZEYE Clement BIZIMUNGU
Donath NKUNDIMANA Albert KARERA
Massoud HARERIMANA James RWAGASANA
Coders: Archiving:
Number = 308 Eric RUSA
Data Entry Clerks: Pierre Claver KABANDANA
Number = 308

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 Administration and Finance

Odette MBABAZI Deputy Director General in charge of Corporate Services in NISR

Didier GAKUBA Former Director of Finance in NISR
Liberal SEBULIKOKO Former Coordinator of Basket Fund
Jean Pierre UWINEZA Former Acting Director of Finance in NISR
Andre GASHUGI Director of Administration in NISR
Silas MUNYEMANA Director of Finance in NISR
Jerome UWIBAMBE Accountant in NISR
Alicia INGABIRE Accountant in NISR
Jocelyne UWAMAHORO HR Manager of Permanent Staff in NISR
Esperance UWIMANA Former HR Manager of Temporary Staff in NISR
Nina RURANGIRWA HR Manager of Temporary Staff in NISR
Maureen TWAHIRWA Former Public Relations Officer
Yolande KABEGA Former Public Relations Officer
Antoinette HABINSHUTI Planning Officer
Theodore RUGANZU Former Planning Officer
Jean Paul NDISANZE Planning Officer
Hassan YAHYA Coordinator of Basket Fund
Eric BUGINGO Procurement Officer
Alphonse SHUMBUSHO Procurement Officer
Gerald YEMUKAMA Procurement Officer
Nadine BABYEYI Administrative Assistant
Elias DUSENGE Messenger
Sita KAZIMBAYA Messenger

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 Census Data Analysis
National Data Analysts

Jean RUGARAMA Population Size and Spatial Distribution

Dieudonne MUHOZA Marital Status and Nuptiality
Beatrice UWAYEZU Fertility
Willy MPABUKA GASAFARI Mortality
Dr. Bosco BINENWA Socio-Cultural Characteristics of the Population
Pierre Claver RUTAYISIRE Migration and Spatial Mobility
Prof. Emmanuel TWARABAMENYE Characteristics of Housing and Households
James BYIRINGIRO Labour Force
Charles RURANGA Measurement and Mapping of Non-Monetary Poverty
Annonciata MUKABAGIRE Education
Dominique M.KANOBANA Gender
Apolline MUKANYONGA Socio-Economic Status of Persons with Disability
Jules RUBYUTSA Socio-Economic Status of Children
Venant HABARUGIRA Socio-Economic Status of Youth
Michel NDAKIZE Socio-Economic Status of Elderly
Prosper NKAKA MUTIJIMA Population Projections
International Technical Support

National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR): Oxford Policy Management (OPM):

Dr. Mohamed ABULATA Mary STRODE Ludovico CARRARO

Felix SCHMIEDING Juste NITIEMA
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA): Cora MEZGER Jean Michel Prof. James BROWN
Dr, Bolaji TAIWO, Chief Technical Adviser DURR Wine LANGERAAR
Dr. Mady BIAYE, Regional Technical Adviser Gilberto RIBEIRO Stephi SPRINGHAM
Jean Marc HIE, International Data Processing Expert Philippe N. GAFISHI Sophia KAMARUDEEN
Dr. Macoumba THIAM, International Census Analyst Prof. Sabu PADMADAS Paul JASPER
Dr. Ben MWASI, International GIS Expert Johnson FIFI

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 NISR MANAGEMENT TEAM
Yusuf MURANGWA, Director General
Odette MBABAZI, Deputy Director General/CS
Andre GASHUGI, Director of Administration
Jean Pierre UWINEZA, Director of Finance
Willy GASAFARI, Director of Census
Juvenal MUNYARUGERERO, Census Field Expert
Prosper MUTIJIMA, Census Coordinator
Augustin TWAGIRUMUKIZA, Director of ICT
Sebastien MANZI, Director of Economic Statistics
Dominique HABIMANA, Director of Statistical Methods, Research and Publications
Antoinette HABINSHUTI, Planning Officer
Jean Paul NDISANZE, Planning Officer

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