Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
Roadshow, London, Mikael Inglander CFO
(2)
Strong position for profitability and growth
Swedbank is the leading bank in The Baltic economies are Swedbank has a small but
Sweden. Profitability is high and experiencing strong economic growing presence in Ukraine and
stable and the bank is growth that is expected to remain Russia. In the long term, a
consolidating its market shares in for many years. As the largest significant share of Swedbank’s
important segments in both the bank in the region, growing with growth will be generated in these
private and corporate sectors. the market ensures attractive markets.
earnings growth.
(3)
Business volumes
SEKbn
Lending Savings
SEKbn
1,200 500
1,103 1,131
1,000 401
400 385
334 340
800
300
600
484
475
397 200
390
400
102 102
100
200
100 104
77 78 61 68 31 34
19 17
0 0
Lending, Private, Corporate, Private, Corporate, Other Deposits, Deposits, AM funds, AM funds, Structured
Group Sweden Sweden Baltics Baltics Sweden Baltics Sweden Baltics products,
bonds
(4)
Dec 2007 Mar 2008 Dec 2007 Mar 2008
Margins
% Lending Deposits
%
4.5 4.5
Lower interest rates in
4.0 4.0 Latvia and Lithuania
3.5 adversely affected
3.5
deposit margins.
3.0 3.0
2.5 2.5
2.0 2.0
1.5 1.5 Increased funding
1.0 1.0 costs have not yet
been fully transferred
0.5 0.5 to customers.
0.0 0.0
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
Estonia Latvia Estonia Latvia
Lithuania Sweden Lithuania Sweden
(5)
Credit quality, Group
SEKm %
6,000 0.50
0.45
5,000 0.40
4,000 0.35
0.30
3,000 0.25
0.20
2,000 0.15
1,000 0.10
0.05
0 0.00
06 Mar
07 Mar
05 Mar
04 Mar
08 Mar
05 Jun
06 Jun
07 Jun
04 Jun
06 Dec
05 Sep
05 Dec
06 Sep
03 Dec
04 Sep
04 Dec
07 Sep
03 Sep
07 Dec
Impaired loans
Impaired loan provisions (6)
Share of impaired loans
Credit quality, Baltic Banking
Loan loss ratio, net*
Q4 07 2007 Q1 08
Estonia 0.67% 0.21% 0.38%
Latvia 0.78% 0.56% 0.54%
Lithuania 0.13% 0.23% 0.25%
(8)
Baltic Banking Operations
(9)
Baltic macro development
• Economic slowdown in Estonia continues: GDP growth will fall to about 3.5% in 2008, with a
recovery to 5% growth in 2009. The bottom of the cycle is expected to be in summer 2008
• In Latvia growth will decline to about 4% in 2008 and to about 3.5% in 2009. The bottom of the
cycle is expected to be in winter 2008/2009
• Slowdown in Lithuania will be modest: expected GDP growth of about 6.7% in 2008 and about
5.8% in 2009
• Export growth remains relatively strong, while weak domestic demand is reducing imports.
Trade and current account deficits are falling. CPI will peak in Q1 2008. Long-term GDP
growth (6-7%) will be above EU average.
Real GDP growth CPI growth
14% 16%
12% 14%
10% 12%
8% 10%
6% 8%
4% 6%
2% 4%
0% 2%
2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
Est Lat Lit Est Lat Lit
(10)
25
• Cautious expansion in Russia
– Raimo Valo new head of Russian
operations
0
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 • Cooperation with FDB/COOP
06 06 07 07 07 07 08
regarding banking products in
International Banking, profit for the period
of which Russian Banking
Denmark.
of which Ukrainian Banking Operations
(11)
Swedbank Markets
SEKm
500
• Fixed income and FX trading
450 continued to do well
400 • Equity trading was weaker due to
350
negative market sentiment
300
250 • Market leader position in
200 structured products was
150
improved, in a weaker market
100
50 • Weak quarter in Corporate
0 Finance for First Securities
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 • Result was negatively affected by
Profit for the period attributable to shareholders of Swedbank First Securities
unrealized valuation effects as a
result of the credit crunch.
(12)
Accounting and valuation effects
Q1 Q4 Q3
Accounting and valuation effects, SEKm 2008 2007 2007
(13)
Swedbank funding structure
Swedbank Group,
excl. Swedbank 50% 50%
Swedbank
Mortgage SEK Mortgage
562bn SEK 569bn
(15)
Income statement, Group
Q1 Q4 Q1
SEKm 2008 2007 % 2007 %
Net interest income 5,241 5,259 –0 4,501 16
Net commission income 2,180 2,536 – 14 2,289 –5
Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 75 386 – 81 530 – 86
Other income 950 693 37 473 101
Total income 8,446 8,874 –5 7,793 8
Staff costs 2,311 2,111 9 1,932 20
Profit-based staff costs 268 522 – 49 390 – 31
Other expenses 1,861 1,893 –2 1,615 15
Total expenses 4,440 4,526 –2 3,937 13
Profit before loan losses 4,006 4,348 –8 3,856 4
Loan losses 288 238 21 49 488
Operating profit 3,718 4,110 – 10 3,807 –2
Tax 805 950 – 15 851 –5
Profit for the period 2,913 3,160 –8 2,956 –1
Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 2,900 3,108 –7 2,910 –0
(16)
4,600
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
Net interest
SEKm
income
5,259
Q4 07
Swedish
55
Banking
Baltic Banking
-13
Operations
1
Baltic Banking
Investment
International
22
Banking
Swedbank
Markets
-215
Net interest income Q1 08 (Q4 07)
Shared
Services and
132
other
Net interest
income
5,241
Q1 08
(17)
Swedish Banking, change in net interest income
Q1 2008 Q1 2008
SEKm vs Q4 2007 vs Q1 2007
Net interest income Q4 2007 2,927
Net interest income Q1 2007 2,943
Changes:
Higher lending volumes 55 234
Decreased lending margins – 116 – 403
Difference in number of days/quarter, lending – 18 18
Higher deposit volumes 24 122
Higher deposit margins 110 194
Difference in number of days/quarter, deposits – 13 13
Other changes 13 – 139
Total change 55 39
Net interest income Q1 2008 2,982 2,982
(18)
Baltic Banking, change in net interest income
Q1 2008 Q1 2008
SEKm vs Q4 2007 vs Q1 2007
Net interest income Q4 2007 1,588
Net interest income Q1 2007 1,215
Changes:
Higher lending volumes 47 245
Higher lending margins 3 8
Difference in number of days/quarter, lending -11 11
FX-effects, lending 14 21
Higher deposit volumes 44 68
Higher deposit margins 85
Decreased deposit margins -148
Difference in number of days/quarter, deposits -6 6
FX-effects, deposits 10 11
Other changes 34 -95
Total change – 13 360
Net interest income Q1 2008 1,575 1,575
(19)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
SEKm
Asset
management
Payments
Brokerage
Q1 2008
Lending
Insurance
Q4 2007
Net commission income, Group
Corporate
finance
Other
(20)
Loan losses Q1 08 (Q4 07)
mkr
350 mkr mkr
17 000 17 000
300
15 000 15 000
250 13 000 13 000
0 -1 000 -1 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-50
Group, total Swedish
ResultatBanking Baltic Banking
före kreditförluster International
Reavinster Swedbank
EnterCard, KIAB Shared Services
-100
Kreditförluster, netto* Operations Banking (exkl. reavinster)
Rörelseresultat Markets and other
Q4 2007 Q1 2008
(21)
Expenses
Q1 Q4 Q1
SEKm 2008 2007 % 2007 %
Swedish Banking 2,255 2,279 – 1 2,183 3
Baltic Banking 899 1,062 – 15 769 17
International Banking 309 272 14 107
of which Ukrainian Banking 150 163 –8
Swedbank Markets 456 560 – 19 517 – 12
Asset Management & Insurance 253 230 10 183 38
Other 268 123 178 51
Total expenses 4,440 4,526 – 2 3,937 13
of which staff costs in:
Swedish Banking 1,099 1,096 0 1,023 7
Baltic Banking 522 587 – 11 451 16
International Banking 157 155 1 52
Swedbank Markets 258 351 – 26 345 – 25
Asset Management & Insurance 110 138 – 20 76 45
(22)
Business areas
Swedish Baltic Int'l. Swedbank Asset
Banking Banking Banking Markets Mgmt
2008 vs 2007, SEKm 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 %
Net interest income 2,982 1 1,575 30 369 289 – 28 25 32
Net commission income 1,025 –5 458 8 54 26 227 – 38 416 4
Other income 690 93 209 – 24 26 254 2 24 – 57
Total income 4,697 7 2,242 17 449 770 – 24 465 – 2
Staff costs 1,099 7 522 16 157 258 – 25 110 45
Other expenses 1,156 –0 377 19 152 198 15 143 34
Total expenses 2,255 3 899 17 309 456 – 12 253 38
Profit before loan losses 2,442 11 1,343 17 140 65 314 – 36 212 – 27
Loan losses 95 173 62 26 ## 0 0
Operating profit 2,347 4 1,170 13 114 58 314 – 36 212 – 27
Tax 656 4 107 20 28 75 88 – 36 53 – 23
Profit for the period 1,691 4 1,063 12 86 54 226 – 37 159 – 28
Attributable to Swedbank's
shareholders 1,688 4 1,063 12 86 54 216 – 31 159 – 28
Return on allocated equity, % 23.3 29.1 5.0 23.7 29.4
(23)
Key figures
Jan-Mar Jan-Mar
2008 2007
Return on equity, % 16.8 18.9
Earnings per share, SEK 5.63 5.65
Equity per share, SEK 136.43 122.84
C/I ratio before loan losses 0.53 0.51
Loan loss ratio, net, % 0.10 0.02
Share of impaired loans, % 0.16 0.07
Dividend, SEK 9.00* 8.25
Tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 8.2 8.0
Tier 1 capital ratio, transition rules, % 6.5 6.8
Capital adequacy ratio, new rules, % 11.7 11.8
* according to Board of Directors proposal
(24)
Core business is doing well – challenging financial markets
(25)
Appendix
(26)
Exposures
• No direct US subprime exposure
– Minimal indirect exposure through investments of EUR 48m in bonds issued by US mortgage
institutions. The bonds have about 5% exposure to US subprime
• Total exposure to structured credits is minimal
– No commitments as regards conduits or SIVs of any kind
– Negligible exposure to CDOs
• Swedbank holds a very small CDO trading stock for client trades in CDOs issued by Swedbank,
with mainly large caps as underlying risk
• Holdings totalled EUR 18m at end Q1
– Exposure to Mortgage Backed Securities was about EUR 714m
• European Aaa and mainly residential
• Held for EUR liquidity purposes and client trading
• Hedge fund exposure was about EUR 500m, all collateralized
• Exposure to private equity firms and their target companies was about
EUR 1,350m in total
– Nordic related LBOs
• The above-mentioned exposures together represent less than 1.5% of
total assets.
(27)
Baltic Banking lending by sectors
Portfolio, March 2008 Portfolio growth, Q1 08
Real-estate
2,933 15% -79 -12%
mgmt
Retail &
1,800 9% 64 10%
Wholesale
Construction 593 3% 47 7%
xx% - share of portfolio and portfolio growth
Other 3,185 16% -2 0%