Kevin P.

Clemens
2168623

Assessing the vulnerability of population at high risk to coastal river flooding in the Philippines

j. Andres F. Ignacio and Sabine Henry

On this Study with the assault of climate change and its disadvantageous effects, there has been a rowing focus on
disaster risk reduction and management. Climate related extremes are on the rise and with these come escalating impacts on
human populations (Oliver-Smith, 2008). Areas of natural hazards, defined as threats having the potential to do harm on people
and places (NRC, 2007), are increasingly being outline as part of the Hyogo Framework for Action of declaration to develop,
periodically update and disseminate risk maps and related information to stakeholders (ISDR, 2005).

Floods are viewed as the most wrecking of every single regular risk; streak floods specifically are the most savage and
harming of assorted types because of their abrupt advancement (Balica, 2007). The Philippines gets a greater amount of a lot of
floods contrasted with different nations because of its area in respect to the ways of storms and the engendering of rainstorm.
This paper looks for a) to recognize territories that are inclined to waterfront waterway flooding in the Philippines dependent on
promptly accessible biophysical informational indexes, and b) to describe the social defenselessness record of networks presented
to this specific danger by building up a social weakness list dependent on the most as of late accessible evaluation information

Powerlessness evaluations initially centered around the biophysical or basic properties of a danger and accordingly
managed highlights of normal and constructed scene (Zahran et al., 2008). Estimating powerlessness is progressively viewed as
a significant part of compelling calamity hazard decrease and building strength (Birkmann and Wisner, 2006). O'Keefe et al.
(1976) set forth that the expanding worldwide defenselessness to dangers and debacles was brought about by social, political
and financial weights that amplified weakness and in the end the effect of the risk by influencing, how individuals react to and
adapt to catastrophe.

The Philippines is an archipelago made out of more than 7,000 islands with all out land territory of 300,000 square
kilometers. It positions fourth all around regarding the length of coastline for nation, having an all out 36,289 km (Central
Intelligence Agency, 2012). This puts it at moderately high hazard for ocean level ascent, especially along the coast. The
Philippines likewise lies along storm belt of the Pacific through which a normal of 20 tropical violent winds passes every year
(PAGASA, 2012a). Precipitation changeability all through the Philippines ranges from not exactly to more than four meters for
each year (PAGASA, 2012b). Adding to the rundown, it sits along the Pacific Ring of Fire which opens it further to volcanic and
structural hazard (Yumul et al., 2011).

The City of Cagayan de Oro is situated in the Northern Mindanao Region and is made out of 80 barangays, the
littlest political Administrative division. The Cagayan River discharges into the Macajalar Bay in Northern Mindanao, going
through the exceptionally urbanized focus of Cagayan de Oro City. On 16 December 2012, TS Washi went through northern
Mindanao, a zone only here and there every now and again with tropical storm. The tempest dumped 180.9mm of precipitation
in 24-hour time span, an occasion with figured return likelihood of 75 years (RDC-X 2012).

Utilizing Empirical estimations of powerlessness joined with various markers to get a trademark or parameter
portraying the framework (Cutter et al., 2008). This exploration applies the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) technique created
by Cutter (2003) to utilize registration inferred pointers in a factor logical way to deal with get factually autonomous factor that
are utilized as the reason for a record of social weakness. The target of PCA is to diminish the dimensionality of the first
information to land at more modest number of tomahawks that can even now clarify a huge level of the inconstancy of the first
input factors.

The last advance in making SoVI is appointing cardinality for the three distinct parts for scaling with the goal that positive
qualities demonstrate more elevated amounts of weakness, negative qualities decline or diminish the general powerlessness
and when there was uncertainty the supreme estimation of the elements were taken (Cutter et al. , 2003). In landing at the
defenselessness file for each barangay, the factor scores were then included to touch base at the last SoVI score.
 As this research deals with coastal river flood hazard, relatively simple model was developed. A combination
of two basic parameter extracted from DEM defined primarily areas of coastal river flood hazard exposure is defined as a
function of elevation from the coast and slope. These areas were extracted from DEM and overlaid using intersects GIS function
to locate the coastal flood hazard areas (Denish, 2009). The Coastal River Flood Hazard (CRFH) was a more logical parameter to
define vulnerable zone to flash flood as compared to mere proximity buffer from riverbanks since the CRFH uses river
floodplains as its basis, particularly near estuarine zones.

Since steeper slope distributions increase the capacity in a watershed for rapid concentration of stream flow,
which of the key features of flash floods, watersheds having more than 20 percent of their total area classified as 18 percent slope
and above were chosen as having the minimum potential for flash floods. The areal limit for considering the maximum size of the
watershed capable of generating a flash flood event is based on the appropriate area of the largest watershed that had experienced
flashfloods in the recent years, which is the Tagoloan Watershed east of the Cagayan in Noryhern Mindanao in October 2006.

These datasets have inherent limitations to begin within terms of resolution both for physical and social data
types, but despite these limitations the results generated have been visually accurate particularly for the social data in urban zones
based on a visual assessment of barangay boundaries overlaid with very high-resolution satellite images (sub-meter pixel
resolution). To validate the efficiency of the GIS model in identifying barangay exposure to CRFH, the flood event triggered by
TS Washi in the Cagayan River was taken as a case study example.

On the table acquired for this study, 17 out of 18 barangays were identified through the model had actually
experienced flooding during TS Washi, but with varying degrees of reported casualties, missing persons and damages. What can
also be observed from the list is that the top 4 barangays in terms of confirmed deaths and missing have high SoVI scores. In
addition, Barangays 13 and 15 both shared portions of Isla de Oro, a natural sandbar along Cagayan River that contained slum
dwellings of thousands of inhabitants, thus contributing to the high casualty rate in these relatively small barangays. What is
worth investigating in the future is the use of even higher resolution DEM’s to locally determine CRFH zones more accurately,
coupled with more accurate delineation of population concentration.

This exploration has demonstrated that with the utilization of promptly accessible biophysical and social
datasets, it is conceivable to relate to an agent level of exactness zones of CRFH presentation and the comparing networks
presented to this kind of danger. The information that was created as a feature of this exploration has made it conceivable to at
first decide waterfront networks at potential hazard to blaze floods all through the Philippines. Further , the gathering of the best
goals social weakness is a noteworthy advance towards prioritization and inside and out appraisal of genuine dangers on the
ground for networks recognized. From that point, chance administration and observing exercises and mediations can be grown
uniquely in connection to flashfloods in these seaside zones.

Further work should likewise be possible in distinguishing flashflood-inclined waterfront watersheds that
void into areas with exceptionally helpless networks. These watersheds can be organized for early cautioning instrumentation and
the influenced networks prepared for inevitable flashflood departure and crisis reaction. Nearby government and bolster
associations can be capacitated to get ready for possible flashflood situation.

National and neighborhood systems and chains of command are effectively tapped by common society in
post debacle recovery endeavors and because of their validity, especially among the poor , they have positive effect in preparing
assets and sorting out alleviation and restoration exercises. This data can be a point of convergence for an online activity for
debacle hazard the executives that traverses the whole nation, utilizing common society organizes as specialists for refreshing and
utilizing the data. Where government is inadequate in the Philippines, common society is prepared to fill in. What will separate
this from current endeavors is the abundance of social data that can be incorporated to give an introduction of biophysical forms,
however more significantly the social scene where they are occurring.

The connection of this study on ours is that on this study, they were able to analyze the impact of SoVI in
the Philippines especially in Cagayan de Oro which was triggered by Tropical Storm Washi in 2011. With Social Vulnerability
Index (SoVI) characterization and mobilization hopefully that we will initiate a further study of these indices and also providing a
new practical and assessing tool for it to be used with a proper standard, and further understanding of natural hazard such us
‘flood’. By it I know that it will take time for us to cope-up with these related studies, but at least it will guarantee in such we can
collaborate in each other as a group. But of course it is not just for us, but also for the improvement and welfare of our society.

Reference

j. Andres F. Ignacio and Sabine Henry (2013). From Social Vulnerability to Resilience: Measuring Progress toward Disaster Risk
Reduction. Assessing the vulnerability of population at high risk to coastal river flooding in the Philippines, pp79-92. Retrieved
August 2,2019. Available from
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sina_Keller/publication/283643970_A_systemic_approach_for_the_analysis_of_infrastr
ucture-specific_social_vulnerability/links/5642487508aec448fa623d55/A-systemic-approach-for-the-analysis-of-infrastructure-
specific-social-vulnerability.pdf#page=79
Kevin P. Clemens
2168623

Flood Risk Assessment of the Antiao River Control Project in Catbalogan City, Philippines

Ronald L. Orale

This examination is the assessment of the abrupt changing of atmosphere builds the force of precipitation which
surpasses the limit of normal and artificial seepage framework. The fast increment of populace and urbanization constrained
networks to change the land use. This change from vegetation to impenetrable layers like cleared surfaces and other solid
structures, for example, structures has decreased the penetration limit of run-off and its volume. Hurricanes convey with
overwhelming precipitation swelling channels, stream and waterways. Numerous people group on the planet have executed a few
systems in overseeing rising water from swelling of waterways because of substantial precipitation. Now and again exasperated
by the flood floods up to streams from ocean brought about by elevated tides among others, however the main choice for this is to
safeguard it; changeless strong dividers and banks, demountable waterway boundaries and glass floodwalls.

Catastrophic events in the Philippines came about into Php 5B to Php 15B direct harms which are about 9.5% of
the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 972 losses for each year 1970-2006. Around 20 hurricanes cross the Philippines
yearly, of which are dangerous. Metro Manila in the Philippines late September 2009 encountered a record breaking flood
because of a 448.5mm of downpour in 12 hours setting 11 million residents to a virtual stop. Catbalogan has a decent amount of
floods due curiously overwhelming precipitation making the waterway flood. Additionally in 2009, Tropical Storm has
submerged greater part of Catbalogan City by a complete collected downpour about 324mm.the siltation issue because of
disintegration, illicit structure along the stream and poor waste administration all contribute in decreasing its conveying limit. In
December 2014, classification 5 Typhoon Ruby (Hagupit) and Tropical Storm Seniang (Jangmi) have caused flooding in
Catbalugan. Catbalugan City government mentioned the Department of Public Works and Highways for help with tackling
sedimentation issue and the enduring flooding because of swelling of different area of Antiao River. By the arrangement of the
possibility Study of Flood Management and Drainage System of Catbalogan City, on this incorporates the proportions of
development of stream dividers and disilting of the waterway bed. (55% finished as February 2015)

The Antiao River is approximately 4.08 km from mouth to the first main tributary, wherein about 3km is gently
sloping by about 0.06%. the mouth of the rivar has coordinates of 11° 4632” N and 124° 52’ 42.6” E and transverses about
N45°E. Waters flowing in the river primarily come from precipitation drained from the Antiao watershed as well as several
springs in the watershed approximately about 1942.4 hectares. The 4km stretch of the river mainly discharges water supply for
Catbalogan, which classified as alluvial while rest of the river system is bedrock. Soil erosion in the upstream is severe mostly
carried by surface runoff for 53% of the watershed in the upstream is used for agricultural activities.

The people from Barangay San Adres claimed that the flooding in their community has worsened since the river
control project was started; hence the study was conducted, during a five day participatory rural appraisal workshop facilitated by
the Samar State University in January 2015.

The study primarily aims to determine whether the current intervention in the Antiao River in Catbalogan City will
eliminate or minimize the flooding problem in the communities along the river, specifically to; (1) Determine profile of Atiao
River and its watershed, (2) Characterize rainfall intensity in Catbalogan from 2010-2014, (3) Calculate volume of runoff and
velocity of river flow, (4) Determine the profile of Atiao River flood control project, and (5) Calculate post construction risk of
the flood control project.

Interview, participatory rural appraisal and observation were also conducted to validate data gathered in the
analysis by applying this to the method to answer the research question includes watershed profiling, characterization of
precipitation in Catbalogan City, runoff and discharge analysis.

a. Watershed Profiling
The profile of Antiao watershed was resolved with the guide of National Mapping and Resource Information
Authority (NAMRIA) topographic maps. It the bases to recognize the limits of the watershed including the
tributaries providing water to the waterway. Soil characterization was gotten from Bureau of Soils and Water
Management (BSWM). Assessed utilizing rasterized satellite pictures from www.bing.com, the guide were
examined by overlaying it with the NAMRIA maps in AutoCad condition.

b. Characterization of precipitation in Catbalogan

Daily rainfall data from Catbalogan station of the Department of science and Technology (DOST)-Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astrophysical Services Administration (PAGASA). Their nominal Precipitation
volume used is a thirty years of monthly data as a reference.

c. Runoff and Discharge Analysis.

The runoff and discharge analysis made use of the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) Version 4,
developed by the US Army Corps of Enineers-Institute for Water Resources Hydrologic Engineering Center.
Simulation run using HEC-HMS software was performed using rainfall data on selected month with extreme
precipitation events. River capacity calculation used the Manning’s Formula which consider cross sectional area,
wetted perimeter of the river bed, river bed slope and the coefficient of roughness.
 d. Antiao River Control Project Assessment
The assessment includes examination of the design and the as-built plan of the project. After which the
responsiveness of the design was tested through the Antiao Watershed Model using HEC-HMS.

d.1. The Antaio River Control Project

A survey team examined the as-built structures of January 2014. The project commenced on February 2014 and
on January 2015, it was about 60% completed. Depth of river bed, dimension of the river was estimated based on
the data gathered. The detail of the project were taken from the feasibility study and plans from DPWH which was
validated on site.

d.2. Flood Risk assessment

As for The Risk assessment it is limites on the calculation whether the on-going and post construction scenario of
the Antiao River Control Project will solve the current identified risk or not. One major purpose of the project was
to manage the flooding caused of swelling of the river. Tocalculate this risk, the volume of water from the
watershed was calculated based on the past events. The river discharge was compared to the current river
capacity before and after the full of construction. River capacity calculation used the Manning’s Formula which
considers the cross-sectional area, wetted perimeter of the river bed, river bed slope and the coefficient of runoff.

As conclusion Catbalogan Samar in the past decade experienced perennial flooding primarily due to extreme
rainfall events usually occurring during storm. In the past five years, Catbalogan has experienced more than half of the total
number of months having precipitation larger than the 30 year normal. Heavy siltation is expected during an extreme
precipitation event which reduces river carrying capacity. Disilting activity must be made regularly, at least ever after every
extreme precipitation events. Soil erosion in the watershed needs to be addressed to reduce siltation and avoid clogging of the
river. The river control project should have been implemented in the upstream side of the Antiao River and not near the mouth.
To minimize the risk of flooding in the upstream side construction of river wall needs to be extended up to Barangay San Andres.

Yes, because scientifically or by analyzing silt are often the cause of a flood, having those sediments on the river
bed layer after layer, because it follow the discharge of the water on a river, the level of the rise of water increases. Though, it
helps the discharges in the river to slow down a bit because of its characteristic as a resisting particle, still it can cause a flood in
small areas. As a Samarnon I know what kind of problem we are facing. Mainly flood, because of heavy rainfall cause by
Typhoons. Samar rivers are connected to the sea so if the Tropical Storm heavy rain and followed by high tide it causes also a
flood on our barangay. Though it takes more brief discussion and clarification, it will help us coping up with this kind of
phenomena and understand the way it connects as its characteristics and with the assumption given by data’s acquired. I know
also it will take lot of researchers to accomplish by data’s alone but I guess technology also can further collaboration this kind of
a problem unto our society.

Reference

Ronald L. Orale, (2015). Flood Risk Assessment of the Antiao River Control Project in Catbalogan City, Philippines. Retrieved
August 26, 2019. Available from
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ronald_Orale3/publication/292987103_Antiao_River_Flood_Risk_Assessment_in_Catbalo
gan_City_Samar_Philippines/links/56b4744e08ae636a540ebb57.pdf
Kevin P. Clemens
2168623

An integrated tool for assessment of flood vulnerability of coastal cities to sea-level rise and potential socio-economic
impacts: a case study in Bangkok, Thailand

Dutta D.

This empirical study introduces a problem to be considered, the impacts of Sea-level rise (SLR) on flooding in
coastal cities and to prepare long-term plans for risk management are very important and urgent to assess because of its high
vulnerability. This will assist policy makers to have a better understanding of vulnerability which are developing coastal cities
under socio-economic and climatic change. However, such results do not present comprehensive details to provide a sound basis
for developing the best strategies for flood risk management. Only uniform SLR is considered without essential details of
topography, urban infrastructure, existing flood control measures, etc. and thus, a comprehensive picture of flooding situation and
its impacts is not captured at the required level for appropriate management strategies to be devised by the responsible
organizations. So far, only few studies have been conducted in this direction, and a very few Asian countries have prepared long-
term plans to deal with this problem.

A considerable lot of the enormous waterfront urban areas in the Asian storm district are as often as possible
influenced by flood because of their geological areas in alluvial floodplains in the lower bowls of huge lasting streams. A large
number of the most flood-influenced locales are situated in the beach front territories. The seaside zone is relied upon to be home
to about 75% of the Asian populace by 2025. The consolidated impacts of potential SLR and outrageous precipitation occasions
activated by environmental change may prompt calamitous flood fiasco in a considerable lot of the seaside urban areas of Asia.
The financial effects of such calamitous floods will be gIn any case, there has not been much progress made so far on joining of
the over two ways to deal with concentrate the effects of floods in urban regions under financial and climatic changes. This
examination planned to build up a coordinated instrument to extensively investigate the financial effects of floods in huge beach
front urban areas under anticipated climatic and financial situations, and to lead contextual investigation examination in chose
seaside urban areas in south and south-east Asia.

Of the huge seaside urban communities in the Asian rainstorm locale are habitually influenced by flood because of
their land areas in alluvial floodplains in the lower bowls of enormous lasting waterways. A large number of the most flood-
influenced districts are situated in the seaside regions. The beach front zone is relied upon to be home to almost 75% of the Asian
populace by 2025. The consolidated impacts of potential SLR and extraordinary precipitation occasions activated by
environmental change may prompt calamitous flood catastrophe in huge numbers of the seaside urban areas of Asia. The
financial effects of such cataclysmic floods will be huge because of the quick urbanization and high populace development.
 In any case, there has not been much progress made so far on joining of the over two ways to deal with
concentrate the effects of floods in urban territories under financial and climatic changes. This examination meant to build up an
incorporated apparatus to thoroughly investigate the financial effects of floods in enormous waterfront urban communities under
anticipated climatic and financial situations, and to direct contextual investigation examination in chose beach front urban areas
in south and south-east Asia

The data and information required for flood simulations by the modeling tools were collected from various
existing sources, including the relevant government departments and regional and global databases produced by various
international organizations. The major temporal data sets collected include hourly rainfall data, evaporation data within the study
area, and water level data at the upstream and downstream boundaries. Elevation data were obtained from the HYDRO1K digital
elevation model (DEM) of the US Geological Survey (USGS) and land-use data from the USGS global land-use database. The
river cross-sectional data, hourly rainfall data for the four gauging stations located within the study area, and hourly water-level
data for upstream and downstream boundary station were obtained from various local sources, including the Bangkok
Metropolitan Administration (BMA), the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) and the Port of Thailand Authority.

There are four main socio-economic aspects were considered these are; population, buildings, roads and railway
infrastructure. The baseline of this data and information for these categories are collected at the district level. For the secondary
data relevant for socio-economic analysis were collected to its respective government departments, and collected the model
output for scenario analysis or case study analysis. Expanding this idea “buildings” are concentrated on the residential buildings
only while “transportation” incorporated only in main roads and railway lay within the area boundary for study. With the
outcome of the series of questionnaire surveys they were able to develop qualitative indices for the estimation of impacts of
floods on four selected economic and social issue.

This paper has introduced comprehensive and integrated tool to analyze the socio-economic impacts of flood due
to SLR on coastal cities along a case study application in Bangkok. The simulated results show that, for rainfall and upstream and
downstream river flow conditions the same as the baseline event of 199, up to 48% of the study area is likely to be affected by
extreme floods in 2050 due to SLR of 32cm and by 81% in 2100 due to SLR of 88cm compared to the area inundated by flood
events of 1995. The outcomes of the case study present a comprehensive picture of floods due to extreme hydro-climatic
conditions and their socio-impacts in Bangkok City under the projected worst-case SLR and anthropogenic development to be
demonstrated to be taken into account in the flood inundation analysis.

Sea-level rise (SLR) can be a serious matter since on this study explains that climate change existed creating the
increase of sea water. Though it won’t be affecting us directly but analyzing and further computation and simulation it can cause
a huge impact not only for structural but also agricultural, someday or sooner. Hopefully someday Filipino Engineers should
study this kind or risk reduction on our country to create significance to the community. Though more data’s and information
should be acquired to begin this study, but we must have the access via regional and global data bases. The relation of it to our
study is to assess our indices to be precise, and as a practice with a proper consideration of the socio-economic impact. With this
kind of social investigation, I gathered the idea of attaining the data’s properly that are common to be a factor or related to the
impact of our economic and socio-economic.

Reference

Dutta, D. (2011). An integrated tool for assessment of flood vulnerability of coastal cities to sea-level rise and potential socio-
economic impacts: a case study in Bangkok, Thailand. Retrieved August 26, 2019. Available from
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02626667.2011.585611
Kevin P. Clemens
2168623

The development of a Flash Flood Index

Amanda J. Scheroeder, J.J. Gourley et al.

This thesis encountered problem initiated by flash flood, were flash flood is a high impact weather event that
requires a clear communication regarding severity and potential hazards among forecaster, researchers, emergency manager and
the general public. Current standards are use as indices to characterize the potential variables of such calamity like its return
periods and United States National Weather Service (NWS) 4-tiered river flooding severity index, which are based on historical
events and statistical analysis. A large group of student-led of interdisciplinary researchers came to collaborate to create an
impact-based Flash Flood Severity Index (FFSI).

It is often to be challenging of the complexity and intertwining properties to determine the factors allude to the
nature of flash flood forecasting, warning, and classification. This matter or event has not been adopted in the scientific
community as a whole because the current study focuses on its development of such index. IPCC studied that they projected
showing that the cause of the increase of extreme precipitation as we all known the phenomenon called Global Warming. The
whole problem flash flood is needed to be considered is its various effect or impact ranging from economic disaster to loss of life,
were according to NWS assessment reports causes of weather related deaths in the US.

Climatic stationary is an underlying assumption used in return period methods, and when stationary assumptions
are not valid, these methods are less reliable. Sources of error occur from inherent difficulty and danger of measuring large peak
of flows over in short periods of time. Return periods may be difficult to properly estimate even with a stationary stream flow
record, because of lacking of stream gauges particularly in heavy populated urban corridors.

During the two summer workshops of: atmospheric science/meteorology, hydrology, civil engineering,
Geographic Information Systems (GIS), sociology, and science and technology studies. With their collaboration they formed
studies of precipitation, flooding, and Rainfall Extremes across Discipline (SPREAD) in Colorado State University in June 2013-
July 2014. Of this study they considered the Big Thompson Canyon flood of 1976 as a case study that led the group to identify
two potential areas of improvement in future flash flood research: (1) the measurement of flash flood severity and (2) the
communication of flash flood risk. Therefore, this paper addresses the former, with the goal of creating a new severity index. The
index is designed to be (1) easy to understand and to communicate/transparent, (2) to be applicable to all geographic locations
prone to flash flooding, and (3) a stand-alone product without the necessity of all associated stream gauge site.

There are numerous indices which is significant to flash flood events including: droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes and also with
these of course many counter measures are needed to consider, base on their impact and appearance. After analyzing the weather
indices FFSI was determined initially impetus to serve as a post-event assessment tool as opposed to a warning tool. Resulting
from challenges, limitation and complexity of measuring flood severity and magnitude; FFSI would need to be a damage-based
post-event assessment tool with five categories ranging from 1 being least damaging and 5 being most destructive.

Events are chosen based on the data availability and also its diversity in terms of representing the full breadth
of the FFSI. In order to develop a preliminary scale for the FFSI, nearly 70 flashflood case studies varying from its magnitudes
were investigated to determine the flood severity and associated damage. Each of it includes NWS Local Storm Reports, relevant
USGS and NWS stream gauge data, photo, news articles, books, peer reviewed articles, and other forms of online and print
literature. The impact associated with flash flooding events; as well the extent is documented. The preliminary damage scale for
FFSI was created, following the analysis of the individual case study.

On this study for its analysis they use the Qualitative research which offers a broad approach for studying
human, cultural, and social phenomena, includes weather and climate risks. From the concept of theoretical analysis and
methodology rigor, researches conducted across social science disciplines systematically investigates problems and issues
relevant to populations affected by natural hazards and environmental risk. Also semi-structured interviews, in particular, allow
investigators to interrogate definitions, assumptions, experiences, and other salient features. To had a better design a flash flood
scale useful to this group, semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with nineteen NWS forecasters to understand
their current definitions, warning challenges, and tools most useful to in their current warning practices. From those contacted,
staff from 12 offices responded. Including 13 men and six women (N=19). The interview was conducted by two graduate
students affiliated by FFSI research group. Base on the analysis, forecasters were found to identify three significant overall
challenges related to flash flood: (1) the definition of flash flood; (2) warning different public entities about the threat to life and
property, both before and during an event; and (3) getting eyewitness accounts and ground truth reports about the progress of a
flash flood in terms of timing, location, and severity.

Flash flood official definition of US NWS is “a rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area,
or rapid water level rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level, beginning within six hours of the causative
event.” But in fact it may vary the actual time in different parts of the country. Hence, several forecasters acknowledged that, in
practice, their respective offices used different definitions, or even debated definitions, based on their unique challenges. The
most important criteria for flash flooding are the impact of it in people, using the interviews demonstrated consensus among
forecasters, which it would be most useful or realistic to include in a scale, was not obvious. For example, the number of fatalities
in a flash flood is often used as measure of severity, as is damage to property measured in dollar amounts. Somehow including
dollar amounts in the scale breakdown does not work because the significance of the cost of these damages for a population
depends on their baseline and available resources.

As of for their conclusion flash floods are leading cause of weather-related deaths in the world and continue
to be one of the most difficult weather phenomena to forecast and warn on because of complex, multifaceted nature of the
problem. As a result, flash floods require clear communication of the severity and potential hazards among forecasters,
researchers, emergency manager, and the general public. Before communication can be successful, however, there must be a
clear understanding of stakeholder’s local flash flood issues, including the difficulty in detecting and classifying flash flood
events and conveying this risk clearly to the public.

The scale would initially serve as a post-event assessment tool to aid in comparisons events. NWS highlighted three main
challenges in regard to the development Of FFSI including (1) choosing criteria for the scale, (2) the generalizability of the scale
across different topographies and flash flood type, (3) the difficulty for the forecasters to evaluate every flash flood.

I agree for this research because of its complex explanation, which comes to its conclusion as a reliable source of how we
consider the upcoming phenomena as a flash flood. Thought, it needs further study and collaboration. It is useful in our study
because it consider the impact of flash flood according to number of fatality and damage as an indication of severity index to an
area and many more. Also they consider the variety of consideration or factors for when and where it is applicable as indices. I
hope someday we are able to pinpoint the missing piece of such indices, for future preference.

REFERENCES:

Amanda J. Scheroeder, J.J. Gourley et al. (2016). The development of a Flash Flood Index. Retrieved August 26, 2019. Available
from
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S002216941630186X?token=9365ADFEBE960FB20276008359CA9B28E1F8741682B
F71B79EAABE9BF3244000B50E345796069B87BBDA9810EDDC05A7