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Probability Presentation

This document discusses the history and concepts of probability theory. It begins by explaining that probability theory originated from gambling disputes in the 17th century and was later developed by mathematicians like Pascal, Fermat, Bernoulli, and Laplace. It then defines key probability terms like events, sample spaces, and conditional probability. Finally, it provides examples of how probability is applied in fields like healthcare for disease prediction, e-commerce for product recommendations, weather forecasting, and election forecasting.

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Aadarsh
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179 views2 pages

Probability Presentation

This document discusses the history and concepts of probability theory. It begins by explaining that probability theory originated from gambling disputes in the 17th century and was later developed by mathematicians like Pascal, Fermat, Bernoulli, and Laplace. It then defines key probability terms like events, sample spaces, and conditional probability. Finally, it provides examples of how probability is applied in fields like healthcare for disease prediction, e-commerce for product recommendations, weather forecasting, and election forecasting.

Uploaded by

Aadarsh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction:

 “Probability Theory is nothing but Common sense reduced to Calculation.” - Pierre Laplace,
1812

 Numerical method of measuring uncertainty is called as Probability.

 Probability theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with determining the likelihood


that a given event will occur.

 Probability plays a central role in the design of learning algorithms which relies on
probabilistic assumption of the data.

History:

 A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by


two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat.

 Subsequently, it was popularized by N. Bernoulli (1713), De-Moivre (1667-1754) and PS


Laplace (1749-1827), to name a few.

Probability Concepts:

 Probability - A chance that an uncertain event will occur (always between 0 and 1)

 Event – Each possible outcome of a variable (Simple, Joint, Complement of an Event)

 Uncertain Event – An event that has no chance of occurring (probability=0)

 Certain Event – An event that is sure to occur (probability=1)

 Sample Space – Collection of all possible Events

 Probability of Occurrence = No. of favourable outcomes / Total outcomes

 Simple Probability – Probability of Simple Event

 Joint Probability – Probability of an occurrence of two or more Events

 Mutually Exclusive – Event that cannot occur simultaneously

 Conditional Probability refers to the probability of one event given another event has
occurred.

P (A|B) = P (A and B) / P (B) [Probability of A, given event B has occurred]

 Bayes Theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A) / P(B)


In real life, Probability has many applications in various domains.

Healthcare:

 For example, diabetic retinopathy is one of the leading diseases in diabetic patients. It refers
to the damage of the retina.

 This condition is hard to identify by the ophthalmologist and requires a lot of time.

 So, algorithms were developed to identify the probability of an eye developing retinopathy and
predict the stage of retinopathy using images of the retina.

 These algorithms helped doctors to automate the process of finding retinopathy and saved a
lot of time.

 Like this, there are many examples in the healthcare industry where probability is used to
automate processes and execute them efficiently.

E-commerce and Streaming Sites:

 We use e-commerce websites like Flipkart and Amazon quite frequently to buy products.

 If you have noticed, while browsing products, the website gives you a list of recommendations
based on the past purchases or searches, which you are most probable to buy.

 These recommendation systems use probability to generate this list, in order to boost their
sales and increase their income.

 Similarly, if you are a user of video streaming sites such as Netflix or Prime Video, they also
give a list of movies and series which you are most probable to watch, based on your watch
history.

Weather Forecast:

 Probability is widely using in weather forecasting.

 Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of
the atmosphere for a given location and time.

 Computer-based models take many atmospheric factors such as temperature and


precipitation, into account and predict the weather for a particular region using probability.

Election Forecast:

 Election forecasting refers to the process of predicting the outcome of elections.

 The first step in election forecasting, is to take opinion polls, which gives an opportunity to
understand people’s sentiments towards a particular party or person.

 After this, the opinion polls from various states are collected and are combined, for calculating
the probability of each party to win.

 This is how probability is used in election forecasting.

So, the concepts of probability come in handy at various aspects of our daily lives. The theory of
probability which started with gambling now holds the key to many new-age applications such as
Machine Learning, Data Science and Robotics.

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