BCG Factory of The Future Dec 2016 Tcm15 150980
BCG Factory of The Future Dec 2016 Tcm15 150980
BCG Factory of The Future Dec 2016 Tcm15 150980
December 2016
AT A GLANCE
In the factory of the future, manufacturers will improve production by applying new
design principles, implementing digital technologies, and integrating processes
across the value chain. Such steps will reduce total conversion costs by up to 40%.
Flexibility, quality, speed, and safety will also be enhanced.
The Boston Consulting Group recently conducted a study that addressed these
questions. The study focused on a global survey of more than 750 production man-
agers from leading companies in three industrial sectors: automotive (which in-
cludes suppliers and original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs), engineered
products, and process industries. The goals were to define a vision for the factory of
the future in 2030, assess the benefits, and create a roadmap for implementation.
Our research partner was the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engi-
neering at RWTH Aachen University.
We found that industrial companies have high ambitions to enhance their facto- Industrial companies
ries—85% of respondents believe they can benefit from implementing elements of have high ambitions
the factory of the future. But they appear to be struggling to build momentum. to enhance their
Among survey respondents, 74% said that their company has implemented, or plans factories—85% of
to implement (within the next five years), elements of the factory of the future, but respondents believe
only 25% said they achieved their related targets last year. When we looked at the they can benefit from
participants’ responses by industrial sector, the results were consistent with the implementing
overall findings. Furthermore, we found that German companies are the most ad- elements of the
vanced: 47% of respondents said they have developed their first concepts for the factory of the future.
factory of the future. However, even among German companies, nearly 1 in 5 said
that they are not yet prepared to introduce the related technologies.
We analyzed how conversion costs and manufacturing costs would be affected ten years
after starting implementation. We found that total conversion costs will be reduced by
up to 40%. (See Exhibit 1.) Total manufacturing costs will be reduced by up to 20%, de-
pending on the material costs. Manufacturers will also capture the benefits of enhanced
flexibility, quality, speed, and safety. Over a ten-year period, a company’s cumulative
investments to capture these benefits will amount to 13% to 19% of one year’s revenue.
AUTOMOTIVE Total2 40
Component manufacturing 50
Press shop 30
Body shop 25
Paint shop 25
Final assembly 50
ENGINEERED Total
PRODUCTS 40
PROCESS Total
INDUSTRIES 25
0 10 20 30 40 50
Outer range of impact Impact (%)
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen
University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
Note: The full effect will be achieved approximately ten years after the start of implementation; the net effect
assumes moderate inflation (1% to 2%).
1
Conversion costs are the manufacturing costs less material costs.
2
The total is the weighted average across all plant shops.
In this report, we focus on automotive suppliers and OEMs. In recent decades, such
companies have been the leaders in implementing innovations in production to im-
prove efficiency. Their initial efforts to implement the factory of the future help to
illustrate the use cases and improvement opportunities and serve as a model for
other industrial manufacturers.
Plant Structure
The plant structure of the future has a more flexible, multidirectional layout, with a
modular line setup and environmentally sustainable production processes. Respon-
dents to our survey from the automotive industry expect plant structure to be im-
portant in the factory of the future: 86% said this dimension would be highly rele-
vant in 2030, compared with 43% who think it is important today.
•• Modular Line Setup. The plant structure of the future has interchangeable line
modules and production machinery that can be easily reconfigured. Toyota is
setting up “simple and slim” production lines in factories in Mexico and China.
The automaker will use a modular conveyor, which is built on the factory floor
instead of in a pit, giving workers greater flexibility in changing the length of the
line and in moving the line-side equipment.
Plant Digitization
Manufacturers are increasingly using digital technologies. Of automotive respon-
dents, 70% said that plant digitization would be highly relevant in 2030, compared
with 13% who think it is important today. Companies are enabling smarter automa-
tion and promoting efficiency in various ways.
•• Installing Smart Robots. Robots can perform more complex tasks than human
workers can. Robots can also collect information from each work piece being The plant structure of
produced and automatically adjust their actions to its characteristics. Changan the future has
Ford has installed flexible industrial robots on a “body in white” welding line. interchangeable line
The company plans to use the robots’ functionality, together with a body- modules and
framing system, to process six models on a single welding line, performing a production machinery
changeover to accommodate different models within 18 seconds. that can be easily
reconfigured.
•• Using Collaborative Robots. Robots can collaborate with humans without
protective fences. In the power train preassembly at Volkswagen’s plant in
Wolfsburg, Germany, a collaborating robot supports workers by tightening
screws that are difficult for them to reach.
Plant Processes
By using new digital technologies, manufacturers are taking lean management to
the next level and exploiting its full potential. Indeed, our survey results indicate
that optimizing plant processes will be even more important in the future: 97% of
automotive respondents said lean management would be highly relevant in 2030,
compared with 70% who said it is important today. Two key elements of lean man-
agement that are being further enhanced by digital technologies are customer cen-
tricity and continuous improvement.
For each plant shop in this integrated value chain, automotive respondents provided
insights into what they considered will be the most important elements in the di-
mensions of plant structure, plant digitization, and plant processes. (See Exhibit 3.)
Component Manufacturing
Component manufacturing will benefit from greater flexibility and improved work-
ing conditions. For example, 80% of automotive respondents cited the relevance of
decentralized production steering and, in particular, the automated adjustment of
machine parameters in the factory of 2030. Nearly all of these respondents pointed
to flexibility improvements currently arising from communication between ma-
chines and products. When producing camshafts, ThyssenKrupp assigns each one a In the factory of the
Data Matrix code comprising product data. The production machines scan each future, the value
camshaft’s code and make appropriate adjustments to their parameters prior to ex- chain will be fully
ecuting manufacturing tasks. Additionally, more than 70% of respondents noted integrated, blurring
that additive manufacturing (commonly known as 3D printing) will be relevant to traditional
component manufacturing in 2030. The main applications cited for additive manu- boundaries.
facturing today are not only the creation of prototypes but also the printing of tools
and spare parts.
Press Shop
The press shop will benefit from improved equipment effectiveness. Of automotive
respondents, 93% cited the relevance of predictive maintenance in 2030. In fact,
most respondents have implemented, or plan to implement within the next two
years, their first applications of predictive maintenance. Schuler has developed ro-
bots that not only move parts along the press line but also monitor the condition of
components and signal to workers if a replacement is required. Fraunhofer IWU is
conducting research to determine how to enable a press to take corrective measures
on the basis of information it receives about a raw material’s specific characteris-
tics. Energy efficiency is expected to be relevant in 2030 by 85% of respondents.
Škoda Auto will recover energy released during pressing by installing press lines
that consume up to 15% less energy, compared with conventional systems.
Component
manu-
facturing
Digital plant
logistics
Press shop
Body shop
Energy efficiency
Big data
and analytics
Assistant
Paint shop systems
Decentralized
production steering Data-driven quality control
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
Note: RFID = radio frequency identification.
VALUE COMPONENT
CHAIN MANUFACTURING PRESS SHOP BODY SHOP PAINT SHOP FINAL ASSEMBLY
Lean 97
management2 New technologies will enhance lean management 67
PLANT
PROCESSES
New technologies will make lean management obsolete 7
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
1
Flexible equipment includes flexible presses for highly functional and rare parts as well as 3D printing for parts with complex structures.
2
Lean management is expected to be relevant throughout the value chain.
Body Shop
Automotive companies are using new technologies to promote greater flexibility in
the body shop. More than 80% of automotive respondents said that smart robots
and production simulations will be relevant in the body shop in 2030. Already,
automotive manufacturers are using smart robots that communicate with the car
body and adjust their actions in response to the information received, while simula-
tions assist in the planning and configuration of the shop’s layout. For the body
shop that builds the Jeep Wrangler, Kuka and Microsoft have developed an intelli-
gent system that not only connects all robots but also monitors their wear and tear.
Magna has implemented a simulation program developed by Siemens that facili-
tates digital planning and replicates body shop processes, such as the interaction of
up to six robots.
Paint Shop
The paint shop will benefit from technologies that improve energy efficiency and
the quality of the paint job. Of automotive respondents, more than three-quarters
said that energy efficiency will be relevant in the paint shop of 2030. For example,
in its Leipzig factory, Porsche currently uses waste heat from a nearby biomass
power plant to provide a carbon-neutral supply of up to 80% of the paint shop’s
heat requirements. Nearly three-quarters of automotive respondents noted that big
data and analytics will be relevant. Most automotive companies have already start-
ed to use big data in the paint shop. The goal is to analyze data to identify the fac-
tors that cause variances in paint jobs and thereby improve quality.
With respect to plant processes, lean principles will be important throughout the
value chain in 2030. Two-thirds of automotive respondents expect that new tech-
nologies will enhance lean management and the continuous improvement of pro-
duction processes. The use of production simulations, for example, will enable man-
ufacturers to increase “pull” in production, thereby reducing waiting times and the
work in progress. Augmented reality (for example, smart glasses) will support opera-
tors in executing assembly and maintenance activities by displaying operating proce-
dures. By analyzing production data with advanced big data algorithms, manufactur-
ers will gain a significantly better overview of each production step, allowing them
to continuously improve production processes. Only 7% of automotive respondents
expect that new technologies will make lean management obsolete.
•• The Strategy and Roadmap. The strategy for implementing the factory of the
future must be anchored in the overarching company strategy. Approximately
one-third of automotive respondents see the factory-of-the-future strategy as a
major challenge. Many companies lack a strategic vision to guide a structured
implementation process.
Recognizing that they need to adapt their workforce to the factory of the future,
38% of automotive respondents see employee skills as a major (“big” or “huge”)
challenge. (See Exhibit 5.) To ensure that their workforce evolves appropriately,
companies must focus on building technical and social competencies. They also
must implement new approaches to qualify their employees and ensure that the
right skills are in place.
•• Social Competencies. The pace of change in the factory of the future means
that workers must be willing and able to continuously learn new skills. Rather
than primarily performing repetitive tasks, they will often be called upon to
solve problems as members of interdisciplinary teams. More than 90% of
automotive respondents see each of the four key social competencies—learning
capacity, teamwork, responsibility, and problem solving—as relevant for 2030.
RELATIVELY
FEWER RELATIVELY MORE
EMPLOYEES NO CHANGE EMPLOYEES
IT skills
Maintenance skills
Logistics skills
Total1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Respondents (%)
At least 21% fewer employees will be needed 1%–10% more employees will be needed
11%–20% fewer employees will be needed 11%–20% more employees will be needed
1%–10% fewer employees will be needed At least 21% more employees will be needed
No change
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
1
The total is the weighted average of the responses for the six categories.
our survey (53%) cited further training of employees as the main route to
building the required skills. Significantly fewer cited hiring new employees (29%)
or reeducation (18%).
IT Infrastructure
One-third of automotive respondents see IT infrastructure as a major challenge.
Two related requirements must be addressed:
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
Note: NA = not available.
1
Mechatronical skills are a combination of mechanical, electronic, and IT skills.
Getting Started
BCG has applied the insights from the study to develop an implementation roadmap
for the factory of the future. (See Exhibit 6.) Each manufacturer must tailor the road-
map to its specific starting point. In most cases, manufacturers should focus on plant
digitization in the short to medium term, so as to avoid falling behind competitors
that are already implementing use cases for digitization. Changes to the plant struc-
ture should be pursued in the medium to long term, because these modifications af-
fect all equipment and the plant layout. Such changes are typically undertaken at the
same time that plants are overhauled or new product models are launched. For plant
processes, manufacturers should continuously implement new technologies to im-
prove processes and customer satisfaction as an extension of their current lean man-
agement agenda. Manufacturers should immediately launch efforts to put in place
PLANT Overall
DIGITIZATION
Smart robots
DIMENSIONS
Collaborative robots
Additive manufacturing
Augmented reality
Production simulations
Immersive training sessions
Decentralized production steering
Big data and analytics
Value chain integration
IT INFRASTRUCTURE Overall
Source: BCG and the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen University, 2016 Factory of the Future Study.
the foundational enablers, because training current employees and hiring new ones,
as well as installing an IT infrastructure, are time-consuming efforts.
To understand how to address the points identified in the health check, company
executives and staff can participate in workshops on and demonstrations of ad-
vanced technologies at the model factories operated by BCG’s Innovation Center
for Operations (ICO). To identify use cases for examination, companies can apply
filters to BCG’s database of more than 200 examples of factory-of-the-future appli-
cations, sorting by applicability to specific industries as well as by the plant dimen-
sion or plant shop. ICO experts then discuss use case applications in detail with a
company’s plant team and evaluate a list of potential technology vendors to identi-
fy the opportunities, assess the expected financial and nonfinancial benefits, and
quantify the related implementation costs and required investment.
Kristian Kuhlmann is a project leader in the firm’s Düsseldorf office. He is a member of the Op-
erations and Industrial Goods practices, with a focus on manufacturing. You may contact him by
e-mail at [email protected].
Thomas Dauner is a senior partner and managing director in the firm’s Stuttgart office. He is the
global leader of the automotive topic and a member of the leadership team of the Industrial Goods
practice. You may contact him by e-mail at [email protected].
Peter Burggräf is a chief engineer of the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineer-
ing at RWTH Aachen University. You may contact him by e-mail at [email protected].
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank their colleagues Andreas Dinger, Konrad Eltz, Philipp Konecny,
Aclan Okur, Felix Pfeiffer, Jan Schlageter, and Bernhard Strack for their contributions to this report.
They would also like to thank David Klein for his writing assistance and Katherine Andrews, Gary
Callahan, Ellen Felder, Kim Friedman, Abby Garland, Gina Goldstein, Trudy Neuhaus, and Sara
Strassenreiter for their contributions to the editing, design, and production.