PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

GRADES 11-12

THE EWING PUBLIC SCHOOLS

2099 Pennington Road
Ewing, NJ 08618

Board Approval Date: August 29, 2016 Michael Nitti

Written by: EHS Mathematics Department Superintendent

In accordance with The Ewing Public Schools’ Policy 2230, Course Guides, this curriculum has been reviewed and
found to be in compliance with all policies and all affirmative action criteria.
 Table of Contents

Page

Scope of Essential Learning:

Unit 1: Descriptive Statistics (10 Days) 1

Unit 2: Probability (15 Days) 3

Unit 3: Discrete Probability Distributions (13 Days) 5

Unit 4: Normal Probability Distributions (13 Days) 7

Unit 5: Confidence Intervals (13 Days) 9

Unit 6: Hypothesis Testing (12 Days) 11

Unit 7: Correlation and Regression (8 Days) 13

 1

Unit 1: Descriptive Statistics (10 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

In this unit, students will learn ways to organize and describe data sets. The goal will be
to make data easier to understand by making it easier to see trends, averages and
variations.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• How to analyze sets of data

• How to interpret and graphically represent frequency distributions
• How to represent data sets both qualitative and quantitative
• How to identify and interpret measures of central tendency
• How to analyze and interpret measures of variation
• How to utilize measures of position to represent and interpret data sets

Essential Questions:

• What are the various ways we can graphically represent frequency distributions?
How do they differ? How are they similar?
• What determines whether data is qualitative or quantitative?
• What are the measures of central tendency? How are they determined? How are
they similar? How do they differ?
• How can measures of variation be determined and interpreted?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Define midpoint, relative frequency, cumulative frequency, frequency histogram

• Identify distribution shapes as symmetric, uniform or skewed
• Differentiate between qualitative and quantitative data
• Define mean, median, mode, bimodal and weighted mean
• Identify and interpret symmetric, uniform and skewed distributions
• Define range, deviation, population variance, standard deviation
• Understand the Empirical Rule
• Understand Chebyshev’s Theorem

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Construct a frequency distribution including midpoints, relative frequencies and

cumulative frequencies
• Construct a frequency histogram
• Construct a frequency polygon
• Construct a relative frequency histogram
 2

• Graph a quantitative data set using a stem-and–leaf plot

• Graph a quantitative data set using a dot plot
• Graph a qualitative data set using a pie chart
• Graph a qualitative data set using a Pareto chart
• Graph paired data sets using scatter plots
• Graph paired data sets using time series plots
• Determine mean, median, and mode of a population and sample
• Find the weighted mean and the mean of a frequency distribution
• Find the range of a data set
• Find the variance and standard deviation of a population and a sample
• Interpret standard deviation using the Empirical Rule and Chebyshev’s Theorem
• Find the first, second and third quartiles of a data set
• Find the interquartile range of a data set
• Represent a data set using a box and whisker plot

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• Construct an ogive

Supplement:
• Data distribution software

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-IC.3 S-ID.1-5

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Frequency distribution constructions of collected data

• Interpreting frequency distributions
• Graphing data sets
• Interpreting graphically represented data sets
• Working with measures of central tendency
• Using measure of position to represent and interpret data sets
 3

Unit 2: Probability (15 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

In this unit, students will learn how to use data to predict the probability that an event
will occur.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• How to distinguish between types of probability

• How to find the probability of two events occurring in sequence
• How to find the probability that at least one of two events will occur
• How to count the number of ways an event can occur

Essential Questions:

• How can one differentiate between the three types of probability?

• What is conditional probability?
• How can one determine if two events will occur in sequence?
• How can one determine if two events are mutually exclusive?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Differentiate between classical, empirical and subjective probability

• Understand the Law of Large Numbers
• Distinguish between independent and dependent events
• Understand what a conditional probability is
• Understand the multiplication rule
• Differentiate between inclusive and exclusive events
• Understand the Fundamental Counting Principal
• Differentiate between permutation and combinations

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Identify the sample space of a probability experiment

• Identify simple events
• Find a classical probability
• Find an empirical probability
• Use frequency distributions to find probabilities
• Find the probability of a complement of an event
• Find the probability of an event given that another event has occurred
• Find conditional probabilities using the multiplication rule
• Find the probability of two events occurring in sequence using the multiplication
rule
 4

• Find probabilities using the addition rule

• Find probabilities of mutually-exclusive events
• How to use the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the number of ways two
or more events can occur
• Find the number of ways a group of objects can be arranged in order
• Find the number of ways to choose several objects from a group without regard
to order
• Use counting principles to find probabilities

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• The Locker Problem

Supplement:
• Utilize tree diagrams to list events

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-CP.1-9

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Probability and Parking Lot Strategies

• Composing Mozart Variations with Dice
• Event Sequences
• Applications of the Addition Rule
 5

Unit 3: Discrete Probability Distributions (13 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

This unit will serve to develop the skills for creating and using probability distributions.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• How to represent and interpret discrete probability distributions

• How to represent and interpret binomial probability distributions

Essential Questions:

• How can we differentiate between discrete and continuous random variables?

How are they similar? How do they differ?
• What does a discrete probability distribution list?
• What determines if an experiment is binomial?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Differentiate between discrete and continuous

• Understand and use the notation for binomial experiments
• Understand the binomial probability formula
• Understand the population parameters of a binomial distribution

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Construct discrete probability distributions and their graphs

• Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of a discrete probability
distribution
• Find the expected value of a probability distribution
• Find binomial probabilities using the binomial probability formula
• Find binomial probabilities using a binomial probability table
• Construct a binomial distribution and its graph
• Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of a binomial probability
distribution
• Find probabilities using geometric distribution
• Find probabilities using the Poisson distribution

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• Using Poisson Distributions as Queuing Models
 6

Supplement:
• Graphing Normal Distributions

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-ID.1-3 S-MP.1-4

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Case Study on the Distribution of Airplane Accidents

• Heads or Tails
• Discrete Probability Distributions
• Constructing Binomial Distributions
• Delving into Geometric Distributions
 7

Unit 4: Normal Probability Distributions (13 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

This unit will serve to develop the skills of recognizing normal distributions and how to
use their properties in real-life applications.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• The area under a curve of a normal distribution represents the probability of a

random variable falling within a specified range of values
• The Central Limit Theorem describes the relationship between the sampling
distribution of sample means and the population from which the samples are
taken
• A normal distribution can be used to approximate a binomial distribution

Essential Questions:

• How can one identify if a distribution is normal?

• What does the area under a curve of a normal distribution describe?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Understand the properties of a normal distribution

• Application of the Empirical Rule for normal distributions
• Understand what a standard or z-score represents
• Compare data from two normal distributions
• Define what sampling distribution of sample means
• Decide when the normal distribution can approximate the binomial distribution

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Interpret graphs of normal probability distributions

• Find the probability for random variables with normal distributions using the area
under a curve
• Find and interpret z-scores
• Find the value of a variable when its z-score is given
• Find the area under a standard normal curve
• Find the probability of a sample mean by applying the Central Limit Theorem
• Find the correction for continuity
 8

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• Investigate and report on the reasons for creating calculus

Supplement:
• Case Study on Birth Rates in America

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-ID.1-4 S-MD.1-5

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Data Collection to Determine Approaching Normal Distributions

• Applications of Normal Distributions Presentation
• Age Distribution in the United States
• Global Age Distribution
 9

Unit 5: Confidence Intervals (13 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

In this unit, students will begin their study of inferential statistics by making more
meaningful estimates by specifying an interval of values together with a statement of
confidence that a given interval contains the population parameter.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• Confidence intervals can be utilized to describe the level of likelihood for an

interval to contain the population mean
• The confidence interval for a population mean can be constructed, even if the
standard deviation is unknown and sampling is impractical, if a random variable
is normally distributed
• Population proportions can be estimated using confidence intervals
• The ability to control the amount of variation is augmented by the ability to
measure it

Essential Questions:

• How can we express the level of confidence we have for a value falling within a
certain range of values?
• What is the chi-square distribution?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Define a point estimate, interval estimate and level of confidence

• Determine degrees of freedom
• Understand the c-confidence interval

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Find a point estimate and a maximum error of estimate

• Construct and interpret confidence intervals for the population mean
• Determine the required minimum sample size when estimating the population
mean
• Interpret a t-distribution
• Construct confidence intervals when n< 30 or the population mean is unknown
• Find a sample proportion
• Construct a confidence interval for a population proportion
• Determine a minimum sampling size when estimating a population proportion
• Interpret the chi-square distribution
• Use a chi-square distribution to construct a confidence interval
 10

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• Shell Lengths in Loggerhead Sea Turtles

Supplement:
• Determining Degrees of Freedom

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-IC.1-4 S-ID.1-5 S-MD.1-4

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Chi-Square Value Interpretation

• History of Statistics-Timeline
• Most Admired Polls
• Traffic Safety Facts
• Crash tests
 11

Unit 6: Hypothesis Testing (12 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

In this unit, students will continue their study of inferential statistics. Instead of making
an estimate about a population parameter, they will now learn how to test a claim about
a parameter.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• Statistical testing can be used to test a claim about the value of a population
parameter
• Statistical testing can be used to determine difference in means between
populations

Essential Questions:

• What differentiates a hypothesis and a statement?

• What is a null hypothesis? An alternative hypothesis?
• How can we identify types of errors and their significance?
• What factors determine how many tailed tests are used?
• What do ‘critical values’ represent?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Differentiate between a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis

• Identify type I and type II errors, interpreting levels of significance
• Determine whether a one-tailed or two-tailed statistical test should be used
• Find critical values in a normal distribution
• Find critical values in a t-distribution

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Write a claim for a hypothesis

• Use a z-test to test a mean
• Find and use P-values to test a mean
• Use a t-test to test a mean
• Use a t-test to test a population proportion
• Perform a two sample z-test for the difference between two means using large
independent samples
• Perform a t-test for the difference between two population means using small
independent samples
 12

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• The Case of the Vanishing Woman

Supplement:
• Tails Over Heads

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-IC.1-6 S-ID.1-5 S-MD.1-7

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Writing a Hypothesis
• Human Body Temperature: What’s Normal?
• Ascertaining Appropriate Sample Size
• Oat Bran and Cholesterol Level
 13

Unit 7: Correlation and Regression (8 Days)

Why Is This Unit Important?

In this unit, students will study how to describe and test the significance of relationships
between two variables when data are presented as ordered pairs.

Enduring Understandings: Students will understand:

• The level of correlation between two pairs of ordered data can be evaluated
• Correlation does not signify causation
• High levels of linear correlation can be used to predict values for non-sampled
situations using linear regression techniques

Essential Questions:

• When looking at data collected between two variables, how can we judge their
correlations?
• How are correlation and causation related to each other?
• If two variables are correlated, how can we predict one variable’s value given the
value of the other variable?

Acquired Knowledge: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Define correlation, explanatory variable and response variable

• Determine whether a t-test can be used to test whether the correlation between
two variables is significant
• Distinguish between correlation and causation
• Understand what a line of best fit represents

Acquired Skills: After studying the material of this unit, students will be able to:

• Construct a scatter plot

• Find a correlation coefficient
• Perform a hypothesis test for a population correlation coefficient
• Find the equation of a regression line
• Predict y-values using a regression equation
• Use a t-test to test a population proportion
• Perform a two sample z-test for the difference between two means using large
independent samples
• Perform a t-test for the difference between two population means using small
independent samples
 14

Differentiation:

Enrichment:
• Predicting and Presenting Correlated Data Sets

Supplement:
• Graphing software used for interpretation and evaluation of data sets

Major Assessments:

• Quizzes
• Unit Test

List of Applicable CCSS and Standards/CPIs Covered in This Unit:

MP.1-8 N-Q.2-3 S-ID.1-9

Suggested Learning Experiences and Instructional Activities:

• Correlation of Body Measurements

• Tar, Nicotine and Carbon Monoxide
• Predicting Future Occurrences