Clean Technology Fund

Investment Plan for the Philippines

 TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1
II. COUNTRY AND SECTOR CONTEXT............................................................................ 1
Challenges and Opportunities ............................................................................................. 3
III. PRIORITY SECTORS FOR GHG EMISSION REDUCTION ......................................... 6
IV. RATIONALE FOR SELECTED SECTORS ................................................................... 16
Energy ............................................................................................................................... 16
Transport ........................................................................................................................... 19
V. ENABLING POLICY AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT................................... 20
VI. IMPLEMENTATION POTENTIAL AND RISK ASSESSMENTS ............................... 24
VII. FINANCING PLAN AND INSTRUMENTS .................................................................. 25
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 27

ANNEXES:
Annex 1. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Program (IBRD/DBP; IFC) ...................... 28
Annex 2: Mainstreaming Solar Power to Mitigate Climate Change (ADB) ................................. 1
Annex 3: Urban Transport Program (IBRD) .................................................................................. 1
I. INTRODUCTION

1. This Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Country Investment Plan (CIP) is a proposal for the
use of the CTF resources in the Philippines, including a potential pipeline of projects and
notional resource envelope. The CIP is a “business plan” developed by the government of the
Philippines (GOP) in agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), and the International Finance Corporation
(IFC).

2. The CIP is based on the country’s Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan, 2004-
2010 and Comprehensive Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP) 2009-2013, the Philippine
Energy Plan (PEP) 2008-2030, the Climate Change: Philippine Response, Strategic Framework
and Action Plan (2007), the National Environmentally Sustainable Transport Strategy (NESTS),
and other relevant sector development policies and programs. This CTF investment plan is a
dynamic document and this version is based on the economic development plans and the GOP
investment programs and mature project proposals considered at this time. This CIP is consistent
with, and will be an integral part of the programs of the ADB, IBRD, and IFC.

II. COUNTRY AND SECTOR CONTEXT

3. The key development objectives of the GOP are elucidated in the Medium-Term
Philippine Development Plan 2004-2010 which includes targets for high levels of pro-poor
sustainable growth and achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

4. The Philippines is the world’s second largest archipelago with a diverse population of
89 million. It is reasonably well-endowed with natural resources including copper, gold, nickel,
timber, and marine biodiversity. There are limited commercial reserves of fossil fuel, mainly
natural gas and coal, but commercial scale geothermal energy and hydropower resources are
currently being harnessed to meet power needs.

5. The country experienced economic contraction in 1998 as an aftermath of the Asian

financial crisis, after which the economy has performed reasonably well in the past several years.
The year 2007 ended with the highest
Figure 1: GDP Growth
economic growth in decades, benign
inflation, a strong balance of payments
%
position, and an improving public sector 8.0
fiscal situation. But this strong performance 7.0
has not translated into poverty reduction. 6.0
Between 2003 and 2006, poverty incidence 5.0
increased from 30 percent to 33 percent 4.0
despite average gross domestic product 3.0
(GDP) growth of 5.4 percent. Both urban
2.0
and rural poverty increased on average and
1.0
only 4 of the 17 regions recorded
0.0
improvement in the poverty headcount.
-1.0
Falling real incomes of families and
compression of public spending contributed

1
to the rise in poverty. There is mixed progress in achieving the MDGs. It is therefore the aim of
the GOP to include poverty alleviation as one of the outcomes of the CTF assistance.

6. As substantial investments in infrastructure are needed, the GOP has sought joint
initiatives with the private sector with total investments estimated at US$5.6 billion under the
Comprehensive Integrated Infrastructure Program, 2009-2013. Reforms, including improved
investment climate and a more robust financial sector, are being pursued in order to encourage
private sector participation. The GOP has fully realized that it needs to boost its development
spending to attain the MDGs by 2015 and is implementing a resiliency program to counter the
economic downturn.
Figure 2: Energy Consumption
7. Growth in energy use and the
associated greenhouse gas emissions have mtoe
accompanied the economic expansion seen 50
after the recovery from the Asian financial 45
40
crisis (see Figures 1, 2, and 6). About 35
56 percent of the Philippines energy demand 30
is met by indigenous resources including coal, 25
natural gas, hydropower and traditional 20
15
biomass energy. The Philippines is one of few 10
countries in the world where renewable 5
energy (RE) accounts for the largest share 0

(43 percent) of total primary energy supply

(Figure 4). However, starting in 2002, there
has been increasing use of natural gas for
power generation with the commercial operation of the Malampaya gas fields. Likewise, the
share of coal to total primary energy supply has risen from five percent in 1990 to 16 percent in
2007. In terms of overall greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, the Philippines is ranked 39th in the
world in 2005 with about 142 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), excluding
emissions due to land use change.1 Principal GHG emissions sources are the power and transport
sectors (Figure 5).

8. The transport sector’s contribution to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the

Philippines has increased significantly both in absolute and relative terms since 1990.
CO2emissions associated with the transport sector have risen from an estimated 6-10 million tons
of CO2equivalent (MtCO2e) in 1990 to about 29 MtCO2e in 2007, an annual increase of about 6-
10 percent (see figure 3).2 Of additional concern to the government is the more than doubling of
the relative share of transport in CO2emissions from about 15 percent of total emissions
(excluding those from land use and forestry) in 1990 to about one third today.
9. Based on the current growth rates in motorization of about 6 percent, and the projected
increase in urban population by 35 million by 2030,3 emission contributions from road transport,
1
Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 6.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2009).
2
Six MtCO2e is based on the World Resources Institute’s estimates, while 10 MtCO2e is based on the 2006 IPCC
guidelines for estimating fuel emissions.
3 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat,
World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
http://esa.un.org/unup.

2
estimated at 24 MtCO2e in 2007, are projected to increase to 37 and 87 MtCO2e by 2015 and
2030 respectively under a business as usual (BAU) scenario. This would not only result in a
rapid increase in the country’s carbon footprint, but would further exacerbate air quality, increase
the already high levels of congestion leading to significant losses in productivity.4

Figure 3: Growth in Transport GHG Emissions, 1990 to 2007

35

30

25
MtCO2e

20 Maritime & Aviation

15 Road Transport

10

0
1990 1994 2000 2004 2007

Challenges and Opportunities

10. The Philippines faces substantial challenges in order to maintain economic growth in an
environmentally sustainable manner, including the need to hedge against the financial and
economic risks associated with increasing fossil fuel imports. The GOP recognizes that a low-
carbon growth strategy must also be socially acceptable.

11. Critical reforms have been enacted in the power sector, placing the sector on a full cost
recovery basis.5 By and large, the GOP has implemented substantial power reforms and brought
on stream private investment in new power generation projects in keeping with the Philippine
Energy Plan 2008-2030. However, the GOP faces considerable challenges in maintaining
competitive electricity prices while balancing environmental concerns as RE options have higher
capital costs compared with fossil fuel based power generation. The government recognizes that
some estimates show that under a business as usual scenario, 50 percent of installed electricity
generation capacity by 2030 will be accounted for by coal (APEC, 2006). The shift towards
using more coal to meet power expansion needs is primarily driven by cost consideration despite
the availability of renewable energy resources. Least-cost expansion scenario for power favors
coal with a cost of $60/MWh over small hydro ($90/MWh), geothermal ($100/MWh), biomass

4 A study prepared by the National Center for Transportation Studies for NEDA and the Legislative-Executive
Development Advisory Council in 2000 indicated that losses due to congestion in Metro Manila alone were
around 100 billion Pesos per year in 1996 prices, about 4.6 percent of GDP.
5 The electric power generation subsector has shifted to a purely commercial business with new capacity to be
constructed by the private sector. Transmission operations have been converted to a government-owned,
concessionaire-operated network, operating on commercial principles with an independent regulator. Distribution
systems have been privatized in the major metropolitan areas. Philippine consumers pay some of the highest retail
electricity prices in the Southeast Asia region: the average retail tariff is US$0.22 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

3
($100/MWh), and Solar ($160/MWh). The Philippine energy road map, endorsed by the
President in 2008, recognizes that technology and modal shifts can be implemented to mitigate
power and transport sector emissions growth in the near future with a strong effort to address
renewable energy development, transmission and distribution system optimization, transport
fuels, vehicle technology, infrastructure, and behavioral changes.

Figure 4: Total Primary Energy Supply Figure 5: GHG Emissions by Source,

(1980-2007) 2005*
mtoe
45 Industrial
RE processes
40 10%
Natutral Gas Other fuel
35 combustion
Oil
9% Electricity and
30 Coal heat
36%
25
Transportation
20 32% Manufacturing
and
15
construction
13%
10

0 *excludes land use change, agriculture, and forestry

809 189 829 839 489 859 869 789 889 899 099 919 929 399 949 959 699 979 989 999 000 010 200 030 040 500 060 070
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Figure 6: CO2 Emissions From Fossil Fuels

mt
70
Agriculture
60 Residential
50 Transport
40 Industry
Electricity
30

20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 60
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: World Bank, IEA and CAIT/World Resources Institute

12. As part of its low-carbon strategy, the GOP has opted to phase out petroleum as a
primary fuel for power generation, with petroleum fuels used primarily for the transport sector.
Biofuels have been given a prominent role in liquid fuel supply with the Biofuels Act of 2006
taking effect in early 2007. Substantial private sector investment is being mobilized for
development of first generation biofuels, mainly sugar cane and cassava-base ethanol and
coconut methyl ester (CME) for biodiesel. The Biofuels Act mandates that gasoline be blended
with 10 percent ethanol (E10) and 5 percent biodiesel blend (B5) by 2011.

13. GOP also continues to promote power sector reforms, and development of renewable
energy through private sector investment. In January 2009, the Renewable Energy Act of 2008

4
(the RE Act) became effective, which includes the establishment of an RE Trust Fund to be
capitalized in part by levies on fossil energy use. The National Renewable Energy Board was
established in February 2009 to attain the objectives of the RE Act. In May 2009, the DOE
released the implementing rules and regulations of the RE Act and in July 2009, created the
Renewable Energy Management Bureau (REMB). Specific rules for the RE Act relating to
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), feed-in tariffs and net metering for qualified end-users are
expected to be released in early 2010.

14. In an effort to further reduce the country’s carbon footprint and improve local air quality,
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo instructed the Department of Transportation and
Communications (DOTC) and other transport-related agencies to formulate a National
Environmentally Sustainable Transport Strategy (NESTS) for the country. NESTS will promote,
among others, the development of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, expansion of the urban rail
network in Metro Manila, deployment of hybrid vehicles in the public transport fleet, and
acceleration of fuel-switching in certain public transport modes.

15. Apart from these transport and environmental management strategies, technical
assistance of development partners such as ADB, AusAID, IBRD, JICA, and USAID have
supported the GOP in its pursuit of transport policy and institutional reforms to improve
governance, enforcement and ensure efficient and effective transport systems which also
contributes to the reduction in GHG emissions. Notable of these are the AusAID Partnership for
Economic Governance Reform (PEGR) reform agenda projects, ADB and JICA road sector
projects and programs for the country and the IBRD’s road policy programs for improving
efficiency in the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and urban transport
programs with DOTC and Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA).

16. The Philippine Government’s response to the climate change challenge has been active
institutionally noting the recent restructuring of the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change.
On October 24, 2009, the Climate Change Act of 2009 was signed into law. Under this new law,
a national climate change action plan would be prepared that would include roadmaps for
mitigation with emphasis on voluntary reduction of local carbon emissions, and adaptation with
focus on disaster risk reduction. The law created a Climate Change Commission, an autonomous
policy-making body attached to the Office of the President tasked with coordinating, monitoring
and evaluating programs and action plans, and will represent the country in international fora.

17. The international donor community, including development partners such as the ADB,
the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the Millennium
Challenge Corporation (MCC), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), is
actively engaged in addressing climate change in the Philippines. There are several initiatives on
capacity building for GHG accounting, monitoring and reporting, for preparation of a second
National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC),6 governance, renewable energy, urban air quality management, and forest
management.

6 Philippines’ initial national communication on climate change prepared in December 1999 with UNDP/GEF
support.

5
III. PRIORITY SECTORS FOR GHG EMISSION REDUCTION
18. The GOP recognizes that the power and transport sectors are the highest emitters of
GHGs and is focusing its attention on interventions within the three broad areas listed below to
reduce GHG emissions.
(i) Supply and demand side energy efficiency, including grid optimization and initial
investments in smart grid technology, as well us urban energy efficiency;
(ii) Renewable energy, including biomass and solid wastes, geothermal, hydropower, solar,
and wind; and
(iii) Transport systems, including BRT, advanced vehicle technology, urban rail, motor
vehicle inspection and emission systems, and wider use of biofuels.
19. The GOP’s goals and objectives for RE development are strongly linked to future
reductions in GHGs. These objectives are
(i) Increase RE based capacity by 100 percent in ten years;
(ii) Be the number one geothermal energy producer in the world;
(iii) Be the number one wind energy producer in Southeast Asia;
(iv) Double hydro capacity with additional 3,000 MW;
(v) Be the solar cell manufacturing hub in ASEAN; and
(vi) New contribution from biomass, solar, and ocean energy by more than 100 MW.

Emission Reduction Scenarios

20. Under a business as usual (BAU) scenario (World Bank, 2009), total GHG emissions are
projected to increase most rapidly in the power and transport sectors.7 Dependence on imported
coal for power generation and petroleum for transport will increase under this BAU scenario
considering least-cost options. During the period 2007-2030, power emissions will increase from
less than 30 to about 140 MtCO2e/y or more than 400 percent increase, with coal power plants
accounting for 96 percent of total CO2e emissions by 2030, and transport sector emissions will
increase from 37 to over 87 MtCO2e/y (or about 133 percent increase (Figure 7).8

7
Table 1 presents the details of the interventions considered for all scenarios.
8
Results from “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook of 2006 (Online at: http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc) are also
pointing to similar trends in CO2 emissions.

6
 Figure 7: Baseline GHG Emissions Estimates for the Power and
Transport Sectors
M tC O 2 e
250 Po w er
200 Tra n sp o rt

150

100

50

0
2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: World Bank (2009)

21. World Bank (2009) evaluated two alternative scenarios referred to as the medium and
aggressive (low-carbon) scenarios. The power sector study’s medium scenario aimed for modest
reductions targeting 10 percent energy efficiency (EE) across all sectors and doubling RE by
2030. The low-carbon scenario shows an aggressive low-carbon pathway, pushing intensive
wind power and solar PV RE generation and 15 percent lowering of demand due to EE, resulting
in emission levels at just 30 percent of the BAU level in 2030 (see Figure 8). By 2030, installed
RE capacity under the aggressive low-carbon scenario will reach 17GW, a three-fold increase
from the baseline scenario

22. For the power sector, energy efficiency programs present a huge potential for mitigation
with negative abatement cost (see Figure 10), meaning, the cost of reducing consumption, hence
reducing emissions, through energy efficiency is less than the cost of additional coal power
plants needed to supply the baseline demand. On the supply side, fuel switching from coal to
natural gas, hydro and wind present large mitigation potential at an incremental cost of less than
US$50/tCO2e, with wind power providing the highest mitigation potential.

23. The analysis indicates that substantial GHG reductions are possible in the transport sector
in the medium and low-carbon scenarios. Transport sector emissions in the low carbon scenario
are 62 percent less compared with the BAU level in 2030, due to the use of mass transit systems,
traffic demand management schemes, vehicle efficiency measures and a higher mix of biofuels
(see Figure 10). The wider use of biofuels would account for about 70 percent of the reduction;
while measures to reduce vehicle usage and increase the modal share of mass transit would
account for 15 percent of the reduction in GHG emissions. The balance is attributed to measures
to enhance the efficiency of vehicles and reduce their gas consumption. Tables 1 and 2 provide
the detailed components of the low and medium-carbon scenarios.

7
24. The main differences between the two scenarios in transport lies in meeting desired
targets earlier as well as in scaling up faster under the low carbon scenario. The medium
scenario targets, among others, 50 km of BRT systems in Metro Manila and Cebu, organized bus
route enhancement, north and south extensions of the Light Rail Tansit (LRT) 1, 56 percent
inspection of the total vehicle population and 5,000 buses to be converted to compressed natural
gas (CNG). Targets for the low carbon scenario include 100 km of BRT systems in Metro
Manila, Metro Cebu, and other cities, construction and expansion of more LRT lines, fully
financed road maintenance, nationwide coverage of vehicle inspection and conversion of 50
percent of buses into CNG.

25. The cost-effective low-carbon strategy for the transport sector includes a diverse and
integrated package of measures that promotes biofuels, low-cost vehicle efficiency
improvements and transport demand management, including BRT development, promoting the
shift to lower-emitting transport modes (see Figure 10). Similar to energy efficiency
interventions, several of the transport mitigation options have negative abatement costs due to
the positive economic benefits of these projects.

8
 Figure 8: Power Sector Emissions Reduction Scenarios, 2010–2030
MtCO2e MtCO2e MtCO2e
140 Baseline 140
Medium 140
Coal Low-carbon
120 120 120
100
Natural gas
100 100
80
Oil based
80 80
60 60 60
40 40 40
20 20 20
0 0 0
2010 2015 2020 2030 2010 2015 2020 2030 2010 2015 2020 2030

mtCO2e
160 Moving from Baseline to Low-Carbon in 2030:
Reduction of 97 mtCO2e
140 -15% less
demand (EE)
120 -20 GW Coal
Baseline avoided
100 Additional
Medium Capacity
80 -1.1 GW
geothermal
60 Low-Carbon -4.5 GW
wind
40 -2 GW
biomass
20
-2 GW solar
-2 GW hydro
0
2010 2015 2020 2030

World Bank (2009)

* The medium scenario targets a 10 percent reduction in power demand due to energy efficiency improvements
coupled with a shift from coal to lower emission technology like natural gas-based power generation and
renewable energy-based power generation that includes hydo, geothermal, wind, and biomass (doubling RE
capacity) .
** The low-carbon targets assumes a 15 percent reduction in power demand due to energy efficiency
improvements and an aggressive roll out of wind and biomass (40 times more than the baseline) and an
ambitious target of 2,000 MW installed solar power from the baseline projection of 1 MW.

9
 Figure 9: Transport Sector Emissions Reduction Scenarios, 2010-2030

MtCO2e Congestion MtCO2e MtCO2e

90 Baseline 90
Medium 90
80 80
Low-carbon
Road and 80
70 70
vehicle fleet 70
60 60
condition 60
50 Fuel use 50
50
40 40
40
30 30
30
20 20
20
10 10
10
0 0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 0
2010 2015 2020 2025

mtCO2e

100
Moving from Baseline to Low-Carbon in 2030:
90 Reduction of 46 mtCO2e CO 2e
reductions
80
-69% from
70 fuel switching
Baseline -15% from
60 Medium vehicle
efficiency
50 Low - Carbon -15% from
demand
40 management
30 (BRT, LRT)

20
10
0
8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0
0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: World Bank (2009)

* The medium scenario targets, among others, 50 km of BRT systems in Metro Manila and Cebu, organized bus
route enhancement and north and south extensions of the Light Rail Tansit (LRT) 1. In addition, 56 percent of
total vehicle population will be targeted for inspection and 5,000 buses will be converted to compressed
natural gas (CNG).
** The low-carbon scenario targets, among others, 100 km of BRT systems in Metro Manila, Metro Cebu, and
other cities. It also includes construction and expansion of more LRT lines, fully financed road maintenance
and improvements, nationwide coverage of vehicle inspection and conversion of 50 percent of buses into
CNG.

10
26. Based on the trends in emission growth, policy conditions affecting primary energy
supply and demand, and estimated abatement costs, the GHG reduction priorities are in the
electric power and transport sectors which account for about 64 percent of total energy CO2
emissions (see Figure 5). The NEDA Board’s Cabinet-level Infrastructure Committee has
identified an ambitious CTF Investment Plan that focuses its interventions in laying out the
foundations for a transformation of the energy sector in a way that will:

• Distributed Generation through Renewable Resources. Match the archipielago

configuration of the country, this will be done by facilitating, in the short-term,
distributed generation projects through scaling-up of renewable energy resources, this
will displace about MW 300-400 of coal generation;

• Energy Efficiency through:

o Demand Side Management. Address transmission constraints in the short term,

particularly those faced in the Visayas and Mindanao regions by starting the
development of a Demand Side Management Program (smart grid, demand side
management) to improve the creditworthiness of power off-takers in the distribution
side of the business, this will displace about MW 150-200 of coal generation.

27. The combined impact of the proposed interventions is intended to displace about MW
450-600 of coal generation equivalent to about 3 million tons of CO2/yr. More important it will
serve as a basis for the government’s more ambitious goal of displacing MW 5,000 of coal
generation under the low Coal scenario.

28. In the transport sector, the overall goals of the NESTS are to reduce the annual growth
rate of energy consumption and associated GHG emissions from the transport sector in the urban
areas of the country and to mainstream environmentally sustainable transport which involves the
promotion of low-carbon intensity transport systems.

29. The strategy, which is currently being finalized sets outcomes and indicators in several
areas including: (i) air quality and public health; (ii) vehicle emission control, inspection and
maintenance; (iii) clean(er) fuels; (iv) public transport planning and travel demand management;
(v) non-motorized transport; (vi) land use planning; (vii) road safety; (viii) social equity and
gender. While targets and indicators are still being developed, some have already been set (for
example, the construction of regional motor vehicle inspection centers in major cities and
conversion of buses, jeepneys and taxis to use cleaner fuels.)

30. The Biofuels Act of 2006 also sets targets for blending fuels. Specifically, the act calls
for 10 percent ethanol blending with gasoline (E10) and 5 percent biodiesel blending (B5) by
2011.

11
 Figure 10: Abatement Cost and Cumulative Abatement Potential for the Power and
Transport Sectors, 2010-2030*,**

Abatement cost
US$/tCO 2e
200
Cumulative abatem ent potential 47
(2010-2030 in MtCO 2e) 4
150
Biofu els
43 5
100 Motor veh icle in spection
131 52
BRT systems 59 57 149
50 318

26 23 85 46
0
85
142 Con gestion pricing
-50
Traffic man agemen t
Hydropower
System loss redu ction
Win d
Heat rate improvemen t
Biomass
Geoth ermal
Natu ral gas
Solar (PV)
Ligh t veh icle tech n ologies

Fou r-stroke tricycles

Road main ten an ce/improvement

*when co-benefits of transport sector abatement options are taken into account, most of these costs are negative.
**Based on investment costs without co-benefits except heat rate improvements and system loss reduction.

Mitigation Cost With Co-Benefits

Transport Sector Options US$/tCO2e
Biofuels (9.8)
Road maintenance/improvement (2.1)
Motor vehicle inspection (5.0)
Congestion pricing (0.2)
Public transport improvement (19.8)
BRT systems (100 km) (29.7)
LRT/MRT lines (46 km) (33.8)
Source: World Bank (2009)

12
 Table 1: GHG Abatement Options and Cost-effectiveness at Full Scale-up

Cost Potential
Effectiveness Annual Potential 2010-
(USD/ Mitigation 2030 Mitigation
Energy Sector Options tCO2e) (MT/year) (MT)
System Loss Reduction (by 3%) -14 4.1 85
Heat Rate Improvement (by 5%) -24 6.8 142
Hydro 47 2.7 57
Geothermal 76 2.5 52
Wind 47 7.1 149
Biomass 75 6.2 131
Solar (PV) 102 2.1 43
Natural Gas 46 2.8 59
Total 34 718
Cost Potential
Effectiveness Annual Potential 2010-
(USD/ Mitigation 2030 Mitigation
Transport Sector Options tCO2e) (MT/year) (MT)
Traffic management 3 1.4 26
Congestion pricing 4 1.2 23
BRT systems 5 2.5 53
Motor vehicle inspection 8 2.5 46
Biofuels 31 17.4 318
Light vehicle technologies 104 0.2 5
Four-stroke tricycles 154 0.2 4
Road maintenance/improvement 172 2.3 47
Total 28 554

13
 Table 2: Details of the Medium and Low-Carbon Scenarios

Power Sector
2030 CO2e
2030 2030 2030 CO2e 2030 CO2e Emissions
Installed Installed 2030 Installed Emissions Emissions (in million
Capacity in Capacity in Capacity in (in million (in million tons)
Power Sector MW MW MW tons) tons) (Low-
Scenarios (Baseline) (Medium) (Low-carbon) (Baseline) (Medium) carbon)
Fuel Source
Coal 26,218 17,291 6,173 135 89 32
Diesel/Oil 756 756 1,256 0.7 0.7 1.0
Natural gas 1734 4,754 4,034 4 12 10
Hydro 3170 4,209 5,589
Geothermal 2168 3,108 3,304
Wind 111 252 4,612
Biomass 50 179 2,127
Solar 1 1 2,001
Total 34,208 30,550 29,095 140 102 43
*The medium scenario assumes a 10 percent power demand reduction due to energy efficiency improvements, while
the low-carbon scenario assumes a 15 percent power demand reduction. The low-carbon scenario also assumes a
more aggressive roll out of RE-based power generation.

Transport Sector (Impacts in 2020)

Energy
Energy Use
Use Impact,
Impact, Emission Fuel Emission
Fuel Impact, GHG Saved/year Impact, GHG
Transport Saved/year Reduced/year MTOE Reduced/year
Sector Medium Low-Carbon MTOE MtCO2 (Low MtCO2
Scenarios Scenario Scenario (Medium) (Medium) carbon) (Low-carbon)
Alternative Fuels
Biodiesel PEP 2008 (20% 20% CME by 3.4 1.8 3.5
CME by 2030) 2020
Bioethanol PEP 2008 (E85 Low-carbon: 1.4 5.2 4.7 11.3
by 2030) E85 by 2025
Natural gas PEP 2008 10% of all .02 .06 1.8 1.6
(5,000 CNG buses and (2020-2030) (2020-2030)
buses by 2026) trucks by 2020,
25% by 2025,
and 50% by
2030
Auto gas 100% 25% conversion 0 .04 0 1.0
conversion of of gasoline-fed
gasoline-fed private cars by
taxis by 2015 2020, 50% by
2030

14
 Vehicle Efficiency Measures
National road Current investment 100% of asset 0.4 1.0 0.9 2.3
maintenance and level for asset preservation
improvements preservation (43% needs
including traffic of requirements)9
management
Vehicle inspection Metro Manila and Nationwide 11.6 1.4 20.7 2.5
and maintenance Regions III & IVA coverage
system, including (56% of total
driver training on vehicle population)
eco-driving
(5% fuel efficiency
improvement)10
Energy saving Direct injection Medium and 1.2 0.1 2.5 0.2
technologies for (DI) and variable improvements in
new gasoline cars valve systems (10% transmissions,
and utility fuel efficiency vehicle
vehicles improvement)) aerodynamics,
tires, and light-
weighting (20%
fuel efficiency)
Four-stroke Metro Manila and Nationwide 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.2
Tricycles (20% Regions III & IVA coverage
GHG emission (53% of total
reduction)11 tricycles)
Vehicle Demand Reduction Measures
Congestion Within C-3 Within C-4 0.2 0.6 0.4 1.2
Pricing for Metro (G.Araneta (EDSA)
Manila12 Avenue)
Public Transport EDSA Organized Metro Manila- 0.03 0.03 1.4 1.38
Optimization in Bus Route wide public
Metro Manila Enhancement51 transport route
restructuring and
service
optimization
Bus Rapid Transit Metro Manila (50 Metro Manila, NA 0.6-0.8 NA 2-3
System, including kilometers) Metro Cebu and
Non-Motorized emerging
Transport52 metropolitan
areas
Metro Manila LRT 1 South and Medium + LRT 0.3 0.07 0.9 0.19
LRT/MRT North Extensions 7, proposed
Expansion extensions of
LRT 2 and MRT
3
Total 16 13 36 28

9
World Bank (2009), Philippines Transport for Growth: An Institutional Assessment of Transport Infrastructure.
10
ADB (2004), Feasibility Study for the Privatization of Metro Manila Airshed MVIS Lanes.
11
PDD: Envirofit Tricycle-Taxi Retrofit Program for Vigan, Tugegarao and Puerto Princesa, Version 1-0, October
2008.
12
Study estimation based on unit costs from London Congestion Pricing.

15
IV. RATIONALE FOR SELECTED SECTORS

31. This section of the Investment Plan explains the considerations for selecting the emission
reduction opportunities presented to the CTF. The measures put forward fall in three subsectors,
namely (i) energy efficiency; (ii) renewable energy; and (ii) urban transport. These are the result
of several months of discussions between the GOP and the ADB, IFC, and the World Bank, and
build on years of development experience and policy dialogue between these institutions and the
Government of Philippines. The choice of programs reflects a combination of the government’s
priorities and sector implementation readiness, the development banks’ capacity and focus, and
priorities established by the CTF. The paragraphs below present the rationale for the programs
put forward.

32. The programs proposed for CTF financing do not involve new technology, rather, they
involve technology that is readily available to the Philippines, but face institutional, regulatory,
or cost barriers (especially upfront investment cost barriers) which must be overcome for
replication and scaling up. The GOP envisaged that the support from the CTF would help
overcome these barriers and lead to socially-responsive and growth-oriented low-carbon
development path.

Energy

A Transformational Strategy in the Energy Sector to Address Growing Demand

33. Unlike any other country that has availed itself of CTF support, the Philippines presents a
set of unique spatial and market challenges to achieve its low carbon scenario: (i) an archipelago
country with very distinct power markets and transmission constraints; (ii) with one of the lowest
per capita electricity consumption in the region; (iii) that exhibits also one of the fastest
urbanizing trends in East Asia; (iv) while facing severe power supply constraints, particularly in
the Visayas and Mindanao regions, which also happen to be home to some of the poorest regions
in the country; and (v) where, in a reversal of past trends, new coal power plants are coming, or
planned to come, on stream to address part of the short-and medium-term supply constraints.

16
 Figure 11: Three Regions, Three Different Power Markets

Luzon (2007) Visayas (2007)

ƒ ƒ Installed capacity: 1,832 MW
Installed capacity: 11,907 MW
ƒ ƒ Peak demand: 1,176 MW
Peak demand: 6,674 MW
ƒ ƒ Barangay electrification: 98%
Barangay electrification: 98%
ƒ ƒ Per capita GDP: P11,281
Per capita GDP: P14,670
ƒ ƒ Poverty rate: 41.8%
Poverty rate: 30.2%
ƒ ƒ Share of PH economy: 16.5%
Share of PH economy: 65.9%
ƒ ƒ Main source of power
Main source of power
generation: 43% natural gas generation: 71% geothermal

Mindanao (2007)
ƒ Installed capacity: 1,933 MW
ƒ Peak demand: 1,204 MW
Distribution Utilities ƒ Barangay electrification: 93%
Electric Cooperatives 119 ƒ Per capita GDP: P10,383
Private Dist. Utilities 18 ƒ Poverty rate: 49.9%
LGUs 2 ƒ Share of PH economy: 17.6%
ƒ Main source of power
Barangay Electrification, as of 6/03
generation: 50% hydro
No. of Brgys. Energized 37,246
No. of Remaining Brgys. 4,753

34. Within this context, CTF-- with its focus on demonstration, deployment and transfer of
low carbon technologies--will provide the leverage and initial incentives for the initial stages of
sustainable clean technology programs. The Government of Philippines proposes to assign CTF
resources as follows:

• Renewable Energy: private sector investment in renewable energy including wind,

geothermal, biomass, solar power generation and small scale hydro (up to MW 10). CTF
funds are proposed to be utilized to leverage IBRD funds to reduce the transaction cost
and other financial barriers to attract a larger number of financial intermediary
institutions to co-finance, in local currency, a larger portfolio of Renewable Energy
Projects. The ADB, IFC and IBRD will leverage CTF support as well, as described in
Annex 1 and 2;
• Energy Efficiency: private sector investments in energy efficiency including demand
side management in the distribution sector, smart grid technology to integrate renewable
energy, and energy efficiency in commercial and public sectors. CTF funds are proposed
to demonstrate the use of load management and smart grid technology and lower
transaction costs in the scaling-up of energy efficiency investments in the public and
private sectors. The ADB, IFC and IBRD will leverage CTF financial support, as
described in Annex 1 and 2.

35. The government is seeking CTF support to start moving from the BAU case to the
medium carbon case first (30 percent below BAU CO2e emissions) under the current allocation.

36. Overall, it is expected that as an outcome of CTF leverage, up to 5,000 MW of installed

coal based generation capacity will be displaced by 2030 under the more aggressive low-carbon
scenario from the replication potential of both renewable and energy efficiency based measures
at a cost of about US$60/ton of CO2e avoided.

17
 Table 3: Results Indicator for RE & EE Interventions

Indicators Baseline Investment Program Results

New installed RE-based power 340 MW 100-150 MW of equivalent
generation capacity by 2020 installed coal capacity displaced
by EE interventions by 2020
300-450 MW of installed coal
capacity displaced by
investments in RE-based
generation by 2020
Estimated annual GHG emissions 0 MtCO2e/year 3 MtCO2e/year
reduction
Rapid replication potential Zero additional RE-based Investments in RE &EE would
towards government goal to generation capacity from baseline result in displacing 450-600 MW
move from baseline to medium scenario equivalent coal installed
scenario (e.g. from 5,500 MW to capacity. It would jumpstart
7,750 MW of installed RE-based efforts to reach additional 2,250
generation by 2030) MW installed RE-based
generation capacity under the
medium scenario

37. The proposed program meets the criteria set forth by the CTF, that is (i) the proposed
renewable energy interventions would change the structure of electricity generation into one
where RE will be an established form of distributed generation; (ii) GHG emissions savings are
expected to reach 3 million tons of CO2e/year; (iii) the displacement of the equivalent 450-600
MW of installed coal capacity a year show a high potential for replication to support the
government’s target of reducing coal reliance equivalent to 5,000 MW installed capacity;
(iv) there is a strong development impact as most of the geographic areas where investments will
be mobilized are also home to poverty stricken communities. The proposed energy program also
creates a strong link between encouragement of investments in RE power generation and the
development of creditworthy off-takers in the electric cooperatives tasked to distribute electricity
to rural communities.

38. CTF financing is necessary to provide appropriate financing and risk mitigations for local
financial institutions to support the private sector’s entry into RE/EE/CP sector. While there is
interest in the market, local financial institutions and private developers are limited to scale-up
without enabling concessional/TA support.

39. CTF funds are needed to incentivize financial institutions and local developers to
undertake investments in lower carbon emitting technologies. Many companies involved in the
development of RE, EE, and CP have found it difficult to access local funding support in order to
make investment in such projects. CTF financing could fill the financing gaps on concessionary
terms that overcome first-mover costs and provide sufficient returns to pioneer projects. CTF
funding, and its flexible application, can provide incentive to these local financial institutions
and developers to implement projects. With effective financial structuring, CTF funds can
address the specific barriers and catalyze the sector’s transition to a lower carbon base. In

18
addition to transforming Philippines’ energy sector, opportunities exist to share lessons learned
and replication in other countries for efficient use of resources regionally.

Transport

40. The transport investments proposed for inclusion in the CTF IP are BRT systems in
Metro Manila and Cebu. BRT systems are among the most cost-effective public transport
systems in the world. A BRT is a mass transit system that mimics the speed and performance of
metros or light rail transit (LRT) but uses buses rather than rail vehicles. As such, BRT
combines the reliability of rail and the versatility of conventional bus systems at a fraction of the
cost of rail. While the development of BRT systems will result in significant reductions in GHG
emissions, the introduction of biofuels will have a significantly higher impact (as presented in
the previous section). Nevertheless, BRT is being targeted for two main reasons: (1) the
program of biofuels is ongoing and progressing well; and (2) the economic development impacts
of the BRT, particularly for the poor, are substantial.

41. BRT projects have high replication potential in the Philippines as there is low technology
risk and substantial demand and private sector interest. They are expected to have significant
development impacts in terms of environmental benefits, reduced traffic congestion, improved
traffic safety, potential reduction in travel times, and transport cost savings accruing to end users.
The magnitude of the benefits and their share to low income groups will be significantly higher
when BRTs are well integrated with public transport systems. Complementary facilities for
private vehicle parking and non-motorized transport enhance the potential to attract private
transport users to the BRT lines for daily commuting.

42. Recent USAID-funded studies on Metro Manila noted substantial cost savings and
economic benefits in pursuing BRT projects when compared to LRT lines or maintaining or to
the BAU operation of buses and jeepneys on high-trafficked transport corridors and studies are
ongoing for a BRT project in Cebu city. The Makati Central Business District (MCBD)
currently experiences severe peak hour traffic congestion and this situation is only expected to
deteriorate in the future if nothing further is done. The Bonifacio Global City (BGC) is also
growing at a very rapid pace. A high standard public transport linkage between the MCBD and
BGC will improve the accessibility to and within these two central business districts and
introduce public transport services in its potential extension to Circumferential Route 5 (C-5) ,
thus greatly reducing the dependence on private vehicles and associated CO2 emissions. The
proposed system will have several advantages which will facilitate a modal shift from jeepneys,
taxis and potentially private vehicles to public transport. The proposed BRT in Metro Manila is
expected to carry up to approximately 5,000 passengers per hour per direction or 75,000
passengers per day by 2030. To give an idea of the impact of not providing the BRT, these 5,000
passengers would require (i) 83 standard buses; (ii) 250 jeepneys; and (iii) 2,500 cars during the
peak hours. Such a mode shift would realize considerable CO2 reductions.

43. In addition to the high GHG mitigation potential and the large development impact of
BRT projects, the government has a demonstrated strong record in implementing low carbon
transport interventions particularly in urban rail and bus networks and implementation capacity is
relatively high due to private sector participation in public transport and vehicle technology
development. Nevertheless, the lack of knowledge in the Philippines of BRT systems coupled

19
with the familiarity with the more expensive LRT has impeded the development of BRTs. In
addition, while the economics of BRT projects are generally robust, with large benefits accruing
to the lower income groups, a certain level of financial support is often necessary for reasons of
affordability to launch BRTs. Unfortunately, carbon finance has not played much of a role in the
transport sector.13

44. The BRTs systems envisioned for the Philippines have the cumulative GHG emissions
abatement potential of about 2-3 Mt CO2e/y. However, the proposed investments could lead to
more BRTs than is currently envisioned as other cities start to recognize their benefits.
Emerging metropolitan areas such as Metro Davao, Naga, Bacolod, Iloilo and Cagayan de Oro
have been identified as potential sites for BRT project implementation. (The proposed BRT
interventions are estimated to reduce GHG emissions by about 0.6-0.8 Mt CO2e/y.)

45. CTF support to the proposed BRT projects is critical as these projects well demonstrate
the sound principles for design and integration of BRTs into the public transport system. Several
BRT initiatives worldwide have failed because they were neither designed nor implemented
adequately, and merely treated as regular buses operating on separate lanes. These failures make
it much harder to reconsider BRT initiatives in the future. This is all the more important in the
case of the Philippines where GoP has been considering BRT projects for the past 10 years but is
yet to implement one. CTF financing is also expected to result in an enhanced design and
accelerated implementation of several BRT systems. Implementation in Cebu also supports
NESTS policy to increase local government investment in environmentally sustainable transport.

V. ENABLING POLICY AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

46. GOP energy policy emphasizes private sector development and investment, with
independent regulation. Fuel subsidies have been largely phased out, although diesel fuel is
cross-subsidized and some controls are exercised to prevent rapid price spikes. The overarching
paradigm for energy and transport is to (i) use less energy; (ii) use energy in all forms more
efficiently; (iii) improve energy independence and security by developing indigenous energy
resources; and (iv) maximize private sector investment. Relevant energy and transport policies
are summarized in Table 4 and discussed below.

13
The “mobile” nature of transport vehicles makes it difficult to isolate reductions in carbon emissions in a corridor
that could have resulted from a transport improvement.

20
 Table 4: GOP Power and Transport Policy Framework

Sector/ Key Policies, Programs, and

Sub-Sector Objectives Expected Outcomes Issues/Comments

Energy Efficiency and Conservation Energy Efficiency and

Plan of Action: Conservation Plan of
Action:
Objectives:
Establish legal framework for EE Use less energy
Reinstate DSM practice across all Use energy more
sectors efficiently
Establish baseline data and Implement Heat Rate
benchmarks Improvement Program
Scale-up information and education (HRIP) for power plants Lack of an Energy
campaign on EE Restart Distribution Conservation Law restricts
Utility Demand Side DOE authority to impose
Strategy: Management programs mandatory conservation
and measures, EE standards, and
Higher taxes for inefficient Expand System Loss other conservation and/or
technologies and support Reduction Program for all utilization targets
implementation of AO183 utilities EE still faces financing
Develop and implement lamp waste NEECP: barriers partly due to the
management policy “invisibility” of EE
And conduct policy study on achieve a total energy measures and difficulty in
savings of 234 MMBFOE demonstrating and
Calibrated Phase-out of inefficient
in the ten years from 2005 quantifying results
technologies
through 2014
Develop curriculum and instructional
Energy materials NEECP has had mixed
Efficiency reduce oil imports by 16%. success in implementation:
Initiate social mobilization program
for market monitoring in 2006, the NEECP
Push for retrofit program across all realized savings of 0.51
PELMATP: MMBFOE and reduced
sectors accelerate the integration emissions by approximately
of energy efficient 188,000 tons of CO2.
National Energy Efficiency and lighting programs with
Conservation Program (NEECP): other planned DOE System Loss Reduction
activities, and enhance the Program under NEECP was
promote efficient utilization of all private sector
forms of energy; reasonably successful and
participation in EE could be expanded
Public Awareness and Information through lighting
Dissemination, Limited private sector
technologies. participation to date.
Voluntary Agreement Program
Energy Labeling and Efficiency Expansion of ESCO market
Net metering to be being promoted by ADB.
Standards implemented under the
Government Energy Management RE Act of 2008
Program (GEMP)
Energy Management Advisory Time of use tariffs to be
expanded
Philippine Efficient Lighting Market
Transformation Project (PELMATP)
supported by Global Environment
Facility
Philippines Energy Efficiency Project
partly funded by ADB
Renewable

21
 Sector/ Key Policies, Programs, and
Sub-Sector Objectives Expected Outcomes Issues/Comments
Energy Renewable Energy Act of 2008: Ensure sufficient, stable, RE potential remains
secure, accessible and underdeveloped and is
Income tax holiday, duty-free reasonably-priced energy projected to lose share
importation of technology, tax credit supply relative to coal-fired power
on domestic capital equipment and over the next 2 decades
services Pursue cleaner and Development barriers
efficient energy utilization include higher capital cost
Ensure open access to connect new and clean technologies for most RE technologies,
RE projects to the grid adoption cost of transmission access,
and off-take risk which
Implementation of a Renewable Diversify energy mix in constrains commercial bank
Portfolio Standard and creation of a favor of indigenous RE financing
Renewable Energy Market (REM) resources, and promote
wide-scale use of RE as
Feed-in tariffs alternative fuels and
technologies
Green Energy option for end-users
Make the Philippines a
Net metering for qualified end-users manufacturing hub for PV
with RE systems cells to facilitate
development of local
Preferential “must run” dispatch for manufacturing industry
intermittent RE sources such as wind, for RE equipment and
solar, run-of-river hydro components
Government at all levels are
fully supportive of the AO
Reduced consumption of
and set to adopt the NTPF
AO254: National Environmentally fossil fuels
and have developed plans to
Sustainable Transport Strategy Reduced local air
implement sustainable
(NESTS) pollutants and GHG
transport projects in several
Draft National Transport Policy emissions
cities across the country
Transport Framework (NTPF) and National
Development of new biofuel
Transport Plan (NTP), 2011-2016.
production plants is being
10% ethanol blend with
hampered by lack of early
gasoline (E10) and 5%
project development
Biofuels Act of 2006 biodiesel blends (B5) by
funding to cover feasibility
2011
studies and front-end
engineering design
Source: DOE website; consultants report under ADB TA 6346-REG, March 2008 and AusAID/PEGR RA008-02.

Policy Context and the Philippine Energy Plan

47. The 2001 passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) marked the
beginning of a transformation of the power sector in the Philippines. This process of sector
reform is still ongoing. A general principle of EPIRA is to establish an environment and structure
where market forces, freedom to choose how and from whom to buy and sell, and effective
competition set generation prices, prevail. Among electricity buyers, EPIRA also calls for
improvements in Electric Cooperatives (EC) performance, including rehabilitation and
restructuring.

22
48. The power and transport fuel policies are effectively subsets of the overall Philippine
Energy Plan (PEP) which was updated in 2008. The PEP update re-affirms the commitment to
pursue the energy independence agenda under the Government’s Five-Point Reform Package.
The energy sector’s agenda focuses on attaining a sustainable 60 percent energy self-sufficiency
beyond 2010 and promoting a globally competitive energy sector. The first objective is anchored
on the effective implementation of the following goals:

(a) Enhancing energy efficiency and conservation;

(b) Intensifying renewable energy resource development;
(c) Increasing the use of alternative fuels; and,
(d) Accelerating the exploration; development and utilization of indigenous energy
resources.
49. The energy sector goals and corresponding strategies both support the Medium-Term
Philippine Development Plan (2005-2010) and the Medium-Term Public Investment Program.
The PEP is also consistent with international agreements such as the 2002 Johannesburg Summit
and the 2000 UN Millennium Development Goals, specifically in addressing poverty, and
ensuring environmental sustainability.

50. Recent energy developments include: (i) the landmark passage in January 2007 of
Republic Act (R.A.) 9367 or the “Biofuels Act of 2006,” (ii) renewed interest in the upstream
development sector through the Philippine Energy Contracting Round (PECR);
(iii) commitments to regional frameworks such as the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy
Cooperation (2004-2009); and (iv) the ASEAN initiative to move forward the harmonization of
biofuel standards. The Renewable Energy Act of 2008 (the RE Act) was approved and became
effective in January 2009. The implementing rules and regulations were approved in July 2009.
The RE Act provides for a variety of fiscal incentives and regulatory measures including:

• A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) mandating a certain share of power to be

provided by renewable energy;
• Feed-in tariffs;
• Net metering for qualified end-users;
• Establishment of a RE Trust Fund; and
• Tax holidays and exemptions.

51. The details of the RPS, Feed-in tariffs, net metering, and RE Trust Fund will be
developed by the National RE Board.

National Environmentally Sustainable Transport Strategy

52. On January 2009, Administrative Order (AO) 254 was issued by President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo instructing transport authorities to develop a National Environmentally
Sustainable Transport Strategy (NESTS) for the country. The AO requires DOTC to reform the
transportation sector, by defining and implementing policies favoring non-motorized transport

23
and mass transport systems, and leading to lower consumption of fossil fuels. Government at all
levels are fully supportive of the AO and set to adopt the National Transport Policy Framework
and have developed plans to implement sustainable transport projects in several cities across the
country. The Draft National Transport Policy Framework (NTPF) and National Transport Plan
(NTP), 2011-2016 are expected contribute to reducing local air pollutants and GHG emissions.
In 2006, the Biofuels Act was signed into law calling for 10 percent ethanol blend with gasoline
(E10) and 5 percent biodiesel blends (B5) by 2011.

VI. IMPLEMENTATION POTENTIAL AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

53. Implementation potential and risk are centered around a few key issues: (i) readiness of
proposed CTF supported projects in an election year; (ii) the policy framework for EE is
somewhat immature, and new legislation is not expected until after mid-2010; (iii) key
provisions of the RE Act of 2008 will not be in place until 2010 (e.g., the RPS and Feed-in
tariffs); (iv) RE projects must deliver electricity below current retail tariffs; and (v) the
institutional arrangements for BRT projects and the roles of national and local governments as
far as project ownership, implementation responsibilities and assumption of debt. The
government is working on resolving these issues to tap the large potential of BRT projects in the
Philippines by formulating the regulatory and institutional framework under the DOTC study on
public transport strategic development.

54. The overall implementation risk is considered to be medium. New business models are
being utilized, and prevailing energy prices, especially electricity tariffs, clearly favor scale-up
and replication of RE and EE activities. The Philippines is an early adopter of RE technologies
and systems such as geothermal power; biomass, small hydropower, and wind power
technologies are now being deployed. Sufficient private sector expertise exists to implement new
RE projects and programs, and there is substantial private investment in transport systems
(buses, jeepneys, and tricycles). Crude oil and petroleum product prices have increased by more
than 50 percent from late 2008 lows, and are expected to remain stable for the next 2-3 years.
Implementation Potential and Risks are summarized in Table 4.

Table 5: Implementation Potential and Risk Summary

Risk Mitigation Residual Risk
Project Readiness Selecting proposed CTF supported projects with high
GHG mitigation potential that had been under
preparation and enjoy GOP support.
Medium
Portfolio of alternative projects for CTF support are
ready to take the place of existing proposals that might
encounter project readiness issues

Government engagement Mitigation of this risk is done by careful selection of

projects that have high level of implementation Medium
readiness

24
Risk Mitigation Residual Risk
Policy and Regulatory GOP with the help of international consultants funded
Framework: by the World Bank are undertaking work that will
lead to clarity in policies related to RPS and feed-in
tariffs.
Clarity of policies related to RE, Medium
MDBs will bring global best practice in EE.
EE, and BRT
With support from a DOTC-financed study, GOP will
clarify the regulatory and institutional frameworks for
BRTs.

Implementation Capacity: LGUs involved in the implementation of BRT projects

will receive the necessary support through the project
to further build their implementation capacity. Initial Medium
capacity development is focus on DOTC and Metro
Cebu technical staff.

Finance: Innovative financial products will be offered to

address financial sector’s reluctance to lend to EE and
Commercial banks are reluctant RE proponents. Technical assistance will be provided Medium
to lend for EE and some RE as necessary to upgrade commercial bank capacity to
projects assess and mitigate project risk.

Scale-up and Replication: Perceived financial risk will be reduced as successful

project implementation will demonstrate that financing
of EE, RE, and low-carbon transport projects are good Medium
business opportunities for the domestic financing
sector.

Safeguards Project design will follow GOP and multi-lateral bank

safeguards. Appropriate environmental management Low
measures will be incorporated into project design

VII. FINANCING PLAN AND INSTRUMENTS

55. Financial instruments anticipated for the Philippines CIP include grants, loans, and
guarantees. Other innovative financing mechanisms may be developed for private sector
projects. Grants will be utilized for project preparation covering feasibility studies, due
diligence, and structuring of private sector projects e.g., power off-take guarantees. Project
preparation is expected to require a total of US$3.5 million: US$2.5 million for RE, and
US$1 million each for transport sector projects. These preparation funds will be complemented
by other donor funds from ADB, JICA, PPIAF, and others.

56. Loans will comprise the bulk of project and program financing, and could include project
loans, and sector loans. Program loans may be employed in parallel to support policy
development and implementation costs. Co-financing will be mobilized to the maximum extent

25
possible from other IBRD, IFC, JICA/JBIC, private sector investors, and other donors. The draft
investment plan envisions US$250 million in CTF funding as shown in Table 5 below.

57. Guarantees will be used for private sector projects to mobilize commercial bank lending
and project developers’ equity. Guarantees may include partial credit guarantees, risk sharing,
and other innovative forms depending on project structuring.

Table 6: Program Financing (US$ million)

Renewable Urban
Financing Energy Transport RE and EE
Source (WBG) (WBG) (ADB) TOTAL
CTF 75 50 125 250

GOP/DBP 180 50 50 280

IBRD 250 250 500

IFC 250 250

ADB 400 400

Others 750 350 1,100

TOTAL 1,505 350 925 2,780

26
REFERENCES

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook. 2006. Online at: www.ieej.or.jp/aperc.

ADB 2007. Technical Assistance to the Philippines for Preparing the Rural Electric
Cooperatives Development Project.

ADB. 2008. Philippines: Energy Efficiency Roadmap. Reported prepared under ADB TA 6346-
REG Supporting the Inception of the Energy Efficiency Initiative in Developing Member
Countries. Manila.

ADB. 2009a. Philippines Energy Efficiency Project. Report and Recommendation of the
President, Project Number 42001. Manila.

ADB. 2009b. The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review. Manila.

AusAID. 2009. Draft National Transport Policy Framework [Draft for discussion]. Manila.

Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup.

World Bank (Maria Fernanda Garcia Rincón and Felizardo K. Virtucio, Jr.). 2008. Climate
Change in the Philippines: A Contribution to the Country Environmental Analysis. [Draft for
discussion] Washington, D.C.

World Bank. 2009. “A Strategic Approach to Climate Change: An Assessment of Low-Carbon

Interventions in the Transport and Power Sectors in the Philippines,” Final Report. Manila.

27
 Annex 1: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Program (IBRD; IFC)

Problem Statement

1. Removing Supply Shortages. The tightening electricity supply/demand situation,

particularly in the Mindanao and Visayas regions call for a rapid mobilization of resources to
facilitate new supply investments. As a short-term response, private sector led new investments
in coal power generation are being developed in both Cebu (MW 200) and Mindanao, even
though the latter is endowed with ample renewable energy resources such as hydro, biomass and
geothermal. The shift towards using more coal to meet power expansion needs is primarily
driven by cost consideration despite the availability of renewable energy resources. Least-cost
expansion scenario for power favors coal with a cost of $60/MWh over small hydro ($90/MWh),
geothermal ($100/MWh), biomass ($100/MWh), and Solar ($160/MWh).

Unmet Demand

The problem of unmet demand:

Vi
Inadequate transmission infrastructure …leads to frequent dropped load and unmet demand
1,600
Frequency
1,400
Leyte Cebu Negros Panay
1,200 Unserved demand
400 MW 100 MW 100 MW
(MWh)
1,000
440 MW
100 MW 800

600

Luzon 400
Bohol
200

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

It does not appear to be getting better…

Demand and Supply Balance for 2009 (Transco projections)

700 310
310
Supply (Cebu) 290 290
650
Demand (Cebu) 270 270
600 250 Supply (Negros) 250

550 230 Demand (Negros) 230

210 210
500
190 190 Supply (Panay)
450 170 170 Demand (Panay)

400 150 150

Jan Fe Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Se Oct Nov Dec Jan Fe Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Se Oct Nov Dec
Jan Fe Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Se Oct Nov Dec
b p b p
b p

2. Ensuring Efficient & Viable off-takers. The Renewable Energy Act of 2008 has set
forth a supportive policy environment to allow RE based power generation to develop and
grow. However, for this to be fully sustained, creditworthy off-takers from the distribution
side of the electricity business must be cultivated. No significant new RE generation
investments will take place if investors are not assured that financially viable counterparts
exist.

28
3. Currently, there are 119 electric cooperatives (EC) responsible for distributing electricity
to 80% of the barangays in the Philippines. Based on National Electrification Administration
data in 2007, the financial and operational position of the ECs vary widely. About 63 ECs had
insufficient revenues to cover their operating and debt service costs while 32 ECs were unable to
cover even their operating costs. The collection efficiencies of ECs are lower compared to
private investor–owned utilities. In addition, 61 ECs reported power losses greater than 14%
regulatory cap, with 11 ECs reporting system losses higher than 20%. Under these conditions,
investors face significant risk and have refrained from entering the market, even if supported by
concessional funds and regulations. Therefore, the viability of ECs is a critical factor in scaling-
up renewable energy in the Philippines.

Proposed Transformation

4. It is proposed that CTF co-financing support a two-pronged approach:

(a) Accelerate deployment of renewable energy as an established form of distributed generation

at sufficient scale in the country to encourage new investments. If scaled-up to its full potential,
the generation of power based on renewable energy resources including biomass,
geothermal, hydro, solar, and wind can add up to mitigating 20 MtCO2e of emissions per
annum.

(b) Institutional transformation of electric cooperatives and improvements in their operations,

including demand side management, smart metering technology, and managerial capacity
necessary to compete after full realization of EPIRA, so that the off-taker risk is mitigated for
potential RE investors. Word Bank (2009) estimates that as a result of project support a 3
percent improvement in load management and system loss reductions practices can
potentially lead to 1 million MtC02e emissions reductions per annum.

5. IBRD/CTF funds will be directed towards addressing long-term credit access and credit
enhancement facilities in small and medium size projects, focusing on private developers and on
ECs which have limited access to commercial financing. IFC/CTF funds will be directed
towards the provision of risk sharing capital in partnership with local commercial banks for
medium to large size projects in the renewable and energy efficiency arena.

6. IFC has identified various areas where the use of CTF funded interventions in the private
sector can have a transformational impact on the carbon footprint of the country. Different
sectors will require different interventions to address their specific needs. The proposals of
private sector products in the Philippines will retain the flexibility to respond to dynamic market
conditions and unidentified market opportunities. The proposed interventions will therefore be
illustrative only, with more implementation details to be developed as each of the investments
and advisory service projects is processed.

7. Scaling-up the renewable energy market requires a solid EC market as off-taker. The
ECs cover close to 75 percent of Philippines consumers, mostly outside Manila, yet only close to
20-30% of the 119 ECs are financially viable to have access to commercial borrowing.
Concessional financing in large scale is a building block required in bringing about a

29
transformation of the distribution sector in Philippines, and consequently securing a growing
renewable energy market.

8. The ongoing Rural Power Project through DBP, and Guarantee program through
LGUGC, have demonstrated that CO2 emissions reductions can be delivered -- and sustained --
by ECs investing in improvements in rationalization of the sub-transmission assets, introducing
smart metering technology, bringing in the discipline of commercial financing and in particular
improving corporate Governance practices. This proposed energy program envisages a large-
scale flagship program to buy down the cost and provide credit enhancement facilities to scale-
up an aggregation of sub-transmission assets, installation of smart meters, mobilizing domestic
commercial financing and continued improvement of technical and management capabilities of
ECs through different business models.

Implementation Readiness

9. DBP has a track record in efficient implementation of renewable and energy efficiency
projects. The successful implementation of the first phase of the Philippine Rural Power Project,
collaboration among DBP, IBRD and GEF showed that commercial financing of renewable
energy can be a viable business line for financial intermediaries. The initial amount of US$10
million was subscribed to by sub-borrowers a year ahead of schedule, and additional financing of
US$40 million was approved by the World Bank in 2009, suggesting that the business model
now needs support to go to scale.

10. There are a number of private sector RE/EE/CP projects that could be implemented
during 2009/2010 with the appropriate financial / risk incentives. Many of these companies have
already approached IFC for assistance in obtaining financing on terms that would make the
project feasible. IFC believes it could support three to five RE/EE/CP projects in the short term
if the requested CTF resources were available

Rationale for CTF Financing

11. The proposed program meets the criteria set forth by the CTF, that is: (i) the proposed
renewable energy interventions would change the structure of electricity generation into one
where RE will be an established form of distributed generation, (ii) GHG emissions savings are
expected to reach 3 million tons of CO2e/year, (iii) the displacement of the equivalent 450-600
MW of installed coal capacity a year show a high potential for replication to support the
government’s target of reducing coal reliance equivalent to 5,000 MW installed capacity, (iv)
there is a strong development impact as most of the geographic areas where investments will be
mobilized are also home to poverty stricken communities. The proposed energy program also
creates a strong link between encouragement of investments in RE power generation and the
development of creditworthy off-takers in the electric cooperatives tasked to distribute electricity
to rural communities.

12. CTF financing is necessary to provide appropriate financing and risk mitigations for local
financial institutions to support the private sector’s entry into RE/EE/CP sector. Many
companies involved in the development of RE, EE, and CP have found it difficult to access local
funding support in order to make investment in such projects. CTF financing could fill the

30
financing gaps on concessionary terms that overcome first-movers and provide sufficient returns
to pioneer projects. CTF funding, and its flexible application, can provide incentive to these local
financial institutions and developers to implement projects. With effective financial structuring,
CTF funds can address the specific barriers and catalyze the sector’s transition to a lower carbon
base. CTF concessional finance also helps to expand the number of ECs whose operations can
be strengthened as renewable energy off-takers, thereby reducing investor risk and enlarging the
market for power producers.
13. In addition to transforming Philippines’ energy sector, opportunities exist to share lessons
learned and replication in other countries for efficient use of resources regionally.

14. Technical Assistance: About 5 percent of the proposed CTF funding will be used to

• Development of a Project Preparation Facility with DBP and other FIs; and
• On the ground advisory services.

Program Financing (US$ million)

Source RE
CTF 45-55 (IBRD)
20-30 (IFC)
IBRD 250
IFC 250
GOP/DBP 180
Others 750
Total 1,505

Program Preparation Timetable

Milestones Dates
Government concept approval/Bank concept review October 2009

Project preparation November 2009-July 2010

Appraisal/Negotiations October-November 2010

Approval December 2010

Project Implementation Start March 2011

31
32
 Annex 2: Mainstreaming Solar Power to Mitigate Climate Change (ADB)

Problem Statement

1. Philippines is leading energy efficiency and use of indigenous renewable energy in the
ASEAN region: it was the first country to declare plans to phase out incandescent bulbs and was
the first country to establish energy labeling for air-conditioners (1992). The country has firmed
up its lead by enacting the new Renewable Energy Law (Dec. 2008) and the necessary
implementing rules and regulations (July 2009). While the legal framework and political
willingness are in place, the country needs large investments to put its policy intentions into
practice, and mainstream the use of renewable energy in all segments of the sector. Under the
business-as-usual scenario (2010 – 2030), energy-related emissions from the commercial,
industry, power, and residential sectors will increase by 123 percent from 77.4 MtCO2e/y to
172.5 MtCO2e/y.14

2. The Philippines is the second largest geothermal power producer in the world, has the
highest wind power potential in the region, large potential for solar power, and abundant hydro
power and biomass resources. Despite these resources, the Philippines was only 45 percent self-
sufficient in energy in 2001, which rose to 57 percent in 2007. The Government is aiming to
reach 60 percent self-sufficiency by 2010, In 2008, about 26 percent of power generation was
from imported coal and about 23 percent from oil. In 2008, the country imported about 101.4
million barrels of oil, costing US$7.5 billion.

3. According to the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) and the US National

Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the potential for renewable energy (RE) is significant:
about 4,500 MW from geothermal; 13,000 MW from hydropower, 5.0-5.1 kWh/m2/day from
solar; about 75,000 MW from wind and 170,000 MW from oceanic currents.

4. The Philippines Renewable Energy Act of 2008 is considered to be the first and most
comprehensive renewable energy law in South-East Asia. It has already helped mobilize new
investments: as of October 2009, the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) has signed
US$2.2 billion worth of new renewable energy (RE) contracts with 18 power companies.

5. The new law provides a seven-year income tax holiday and tax exemptions for the carbon
credits generated from renewable energy sources. A 10 percent corporate income tax (compared
against 30 percent regular tax), is also provided once the income tax holiday expires. In addition
the law provides: (i) a 1.5 percent realty tax cap on original cost of equipment and facilities to
produce renewable energy; (ii) prioritizes the purchase, grid connection and transmission of
electricity generated by companies from renewable energy sources; and (iii) power generation
exempted from value added tax.

6. The most interesting provision is a net metering scheme that will allow consumers the
option to generate their own power and transfer excess power to the grid. A customer, as an
independent power producer, will be able to earn from the power they contribute to the grid at
approved feed-in tariff. The feed in tariff will provide a guaranteed fixed price for at least 12

14
Emissions data are from APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook of 2006.

1
years for electricity produced from emerging renewable resources (wind, solar, ocean, run-of-
river hydro and biomass).

7. Electricity retailers will also be required to maintain a minimum amount of generation

from renewable energy sources, commonly known as the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
ensuring that the retailers have incentive to use renewable energy at approved feed-in tariff rates
in its generation portfolio. Under the same law, a submarket of the Wholesale Electricity Spot
Market (WESM) will created for trading Renewable Energy Certificates.

8. A study done by the WWF and the University of the Philippines National Engineering
Center showed that the country can save as much as US$2.9 billion annually from avoided
importation of fossil fuel if the country’s renewable energy share in its power generation mix is
increased from less than 1 percent to about 40 percent.

9. In March 2009, ADB approved a loan project and a grant (Philippine Energy Efficiency
Project, PEEP),15 to start up a comprehensive energy efficiency program to identify a range of
pilot which could be scaled up later. The project will (i) retrofit about 40 government-owned
office buildings with efficient lighting; (ii) procure 13 million compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs)
for distribution to residential and other customers to reduce peak power demand; (iii) introduce
energy efficient lamps for public lighting; (iv) set up a laboratory for testing energy-efficient
appliances and a lamp waste management facility; (v) establish a super energy service company
(ESCO) to support ESCO development; (vi) promote an efficient-building initiative; and (vii)
develop and implement a communication and social mobilization program. This project will
result in savings of about US$100 million per annum from avoided fuel cost and deferral of an
investment of US$450 million in power generation and associated network capacity of 450
megawatts, which is about 3 percent of the Philippines’ total generation capacity. Poor
customers would particularly benefit as lighting is a significant component of their electricity
consumption. The distribution of the CFLs was formally launched16 on 26 September 2009, after
a year-long preparation and procurement of the CFLs. The Project has transformed the market
for efficient lighting in the Philippines and expects similar result from the proposed large scale
implementation of solar power with the support of the Philippines Renewable Energy Law.

Proposed Transformation

10. The legal framework and the economic incentives provided by high energy cost have not
been sufficient for adoption of clean energy and energy efficiency by ordinary citizens and
businesses. The recent development in energy efficiency and renewable energy is growing the
technology divide, most evident by average citizen's ignorance not just of how to utilize energy
efficiency and renewable energy in everyday life but more importantly in even knowing what
technology choices they have. The proposed project will bridge the growing technology-divide
between the informed (often public sector and the rich among the population) and the ill-
informed (non-urban and poor) by attacking it from two different angles: usability (through

15
ADB 2009. Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors on a Proposed Loan to the
Republic of the Philippines for the Philippine Energy Efficiency Project.
16
Details available at: http://rtvm.gov.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1763 percent3Apublic-
launch-of-the-switch-to-compact-fluorescent-lamps-cfls-program&Itemid=61.

2
implementation) and education (through awareness). In addition, it will incorporate the three
proven elements from the CFL distribution component of the PEEP which set it apart from
similar initiatives: (i) scale economy-bulk procurement of 13 million units reduced unit cost by
more than 60 percent of the retail price; (ii) improve technology credibility-the consumer markets
were made aware of the benefits of the technology and pushed “10,000 hour” bulbs when the
local market only carries CFLs with life between 1000 and 6,000 hours; and (iii) CDM ready-
being a large project, it qualified and was able to finance the initials costs for CDM under the
"Program of Activities" approach. The "CFL experience" has taught all a lesson: compelling
economics, short-payback periods and friendly regulation is not sufficient for “big-bang” large
impact changes, which is only possible with large investments that can "shake up" the existing
paradigm and mindsets which are often the main barrier to new technology investments.

11. With that spirit, the Philippines Department of Energy (DOE) and ADB have decided to
focus on a single well-proven technology solution that is well established but still remains
outside the reach of ordinary citizens. As part of government's scale up plan for PEEP, the
government is preparing a new multi-tranche financing facility (MFF) to support the long-term
EE and RE investment program which is scheduled for ADB Board approval in 2010. The MFF
will provide up to US$200 million in loan funding which will leverage a US$1 billion
investment program over a seven-year period. The first tranche of the MFF will provide
technical assistance (TA) and financing to scale up some of the existing programs and other
programs under the title of “New Energy Technology to Mitigate Climate Change” and would
cover among others, the following key components: (i) Energy Efficiency in Buildings; (ii) Solar
Power Generation with Net Metering; (iii) Hybrid Off-grid Generation; and (iv) Mindanao Mini
Hydro Program. While some of all of proposed components will increase energy efficiency, the
Solar Power Generation component needs support to transform the existing dynamics: the actors,
the economics, the supply chain, and over all, how consumers perceive this technology.

12. The proposed allocation for US$125 million CTF fund for the energy sector will be used
to cover part of the additional cost of solar power generation through large-scale implementation
of the net metering program under the new Philippine Renewable Energy Law.

13. As explained earlier, that the Philippines Renewable Energy Law with its RPS and Feed-
in Tariffs with net metering17 is a pioneering framework for the entire ASEAN region. This Law
also provides for establishing a voluntary market for Renewable Energy Certificates. These
provisions will not bring any fruit without appropriate investments in the sector. ADB will
support this market creation opportunity with a Government-led project that will quantify the
benefits of net metering with solar technology to consumers, establish product quality
benchmarks in the market and develop secondary supply and maintenance chains. Currently the
specialized electronic meters (that can record electricity flow in both directions) and solar panel
are not readily available in the retail market in the Philippines, and are controlled by a small
number of technology vendors and service providers. A large scale project will bring in more
players and choices to the market and improve sector efficiency. CTF is proposed to fund start-
up of the net metering program in commercial buildings. CTF co-financing will accelerate

17
Net Metering” refers to a system, appropriate for distributed generation, in which a distribution grid user has a
two-way connection to the grid and is only charged for his net electricity consumption and is credited for any
overall contribution to the electricity grid; (Source: Section 4 (gg), Philippine Renewable Energy Act of 2008 )

3
transformation of this market by reducing the time needed to have 30,000 solar generation
installations (residential and commercial) from 10 years to about 2 years.

14. Prices for solar panels are relatively high in the Philippines and only a handful of
businesses are actively pursuing the market. Despite the high cost of electricity, customers have
not installed distributed solar generation as its high initial capital cost makes it financially
unattractive due to long pay-back periods. The overall installation cost also remained high as the
previous legal framework did not allow selling of excess power back to the grid, hence
consumers needed batteries for storing excess generation when supply exceeded demand and or
for storing for evening use. In 2009, an average size installation with 4.5 kW installed capacity
will cost about US$18,000 in the retail market and it will take about 14 years (FIRR: 5.4 percent)
to recover the initial amount of the capital cost (US$18,000) through annual benefits of about
US$1,300. Consumers are unwilling to invest in new technology projects with such long return
periods.

15. The net metering provision of the Philippine Renewable Energy Law provides the legal
and regulatory enabling environment for significant change in the RE market, but external
financing is needed to jump-start the transformation. Assuming a feed-in tariff 30c/kWh
(WACC: 10 percent, depreciation 4 percent, and 4 hours of use each day) for 12 years—as per
the provisions of the law—the payback period reduces to about 10 years (FIRR: 8 percent). This
will provide some incentives to large commercial installations and will help the market to grow,
but it may take at least 5 years, before the market will reach the threshold where economies of
scale and competition will reduce prices. For example, if the local solar generation market were
large enough, the competitive price could reduce the pay-back period to 7.5 years (FIRR: 17
percent).

16. The proposed investment program will (i) reduce the initial capital cost with a large
single procurement through international bidding; and (ii) provide additional tariff support above
the regulatory feed-in tariff for the first three years to transform this market by accelerating the
penetration of solar power in the country. This transformation will target implementation of
about 30,000 office buildings, factories and large houses. The recent price reductions in solar
panels and global competition for market share will deliver large discount from bulk
procurement. As a result, CTF co-financing will help reduce the price of the US$18,000 initial
outlay to US$10,000 (removing the need for battery based storage), and cover a supplement to
the net feed-in tariff to the gross amount generated for the first three-years of operation (above
the fair and reasonable tariff level that would be set by ERC, the regulator), thereby reducing the
payback period to about 2.5 years (FIRR: 50 percent). The tariff and pay-back scenarios are
summarized in Table 1.

17. Consumers will be made aware of the benefits, favorable pricing and technical quality
aspects of the solar panels. The market will be transformed: the skyline of the city will change as
consumers take advantage of this one-time offer. Each panel will also be attached with the
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) as allowed under the RE Law, so that retailers will be able
to meet the requirements of the Renewable Portfolio Standards using the RECs. RECs may be

4
used by consumers to offset the installation cost of the panels, as it is commonly used in
countries like Australia.18 A summary of the various scenarios is shown below:

Table 1: Summary of Tariff Incentives and Financial Return

Baseline Regulated Feed-in + Feed-in + bulk Feed-in + bulk
feed-in tariff bulk purchase + CTF incentive +CTF + REC Units
Cost 18,000 18,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 $
Payback 13.5 9.8 7.5 2.5 2.3 years
FIRR 5.4 8.0 17.4 50.8 64.2 %

18. ADB will design the MFF to facilitate investment in other sub-sectors and to mobilize
private sector investment in EE. CTF will co-finance only the component for solar power net
metering that will transform the market and may work with the Super ESCO established under
the PEEP. The details of this arrangement will be finalized during project preparation.

19. CTF resources are proposed to enhance the MFF investment program design as follows:

• CTF investments will bring down the cost of these technically proven projects through
bulk procurement and public awareness “packaging” (described in para 10 above) to be
finally and technically viable in the Philippines, reduce pay-back period for the
customers, and increase credibility of the technology by maintaining (or improving)
standards and providing direct incentives to try the new technology
• CTF resources will cover additional costs associated with the core investments outlined
above and encourage the government to lead and allocate resources for mainstreaming
energy efficiency.
• CTF resources will improve the “depth” of the ADB project by increasing the economies
of scale and scope for the high-cost investments, which will shorten the pay-back period
and increase the financial rates of return.
• CTF will allow capturing of CDM benefits for all activities, which in turn will reduce
upfront cost because of its scale.
• The proposed market transformational initiative would cover about 30,000 commercial,
government offices and large residences savings in excess of 100,000 tons per year of
CO2 or about 2.5 million tons over the life of the project costing about US$50 per ton. It
will encourage other customers to switch, as the market transforms and the prices fall.
This is expected to bring in at least another 300,000 (10-to-1) customers to opt for net
metering with RE systems, which will avoid about 25 million tons at a cost just below
US$5 per tons of CO2.

20. The impact of this investment will be displacement of grid-supplied fossil power with
distributed solar power in net metering installations. The project supported by CTF can be
replicated and scaled-up as knowledge and operational experience increase. As shown in Table
2, replication of initial investments could deliver reductions of about 1MtCO2e/year,
representing an aggregate mitigation cost of about US$5 per ton.

18
Office of the Australian Renewable Energy Regulator, available: http://www.orer.gov.au/recs/

5
 Table 1: Summary of Mitigation Cost-effectiveness (estimates)

GHG Reduction with

Component / CTF Direct GHG Reduction Replication & Scale Up Net Mitigation cost per
Contribution (tons CO2e/y) (tons CO2e/y) ton per CTF US$
Solar Generation with
Net Metering
100,000 25 million $5
US$50 million
10,000 units

Implementation Readiness

21. The implementation of the project will be led by DOE in partnership with other
stakeholders including private sector investors, and local government units as appropriate. DOE
has sufficient expertise to manage the ADB investment project, and project management support
will be included in the MFF scope, including capacity building for financial institutions and
ESCOs. The preparation stage for the MFF and parallel TA will identify candidate sub-projects
partly based on enterprise management capacity to implement the proposed EE investments.

22. ADB has initiated preparation of the MFF to support the long-term investment program.
ADB will implement a project preparation TA which will finance initial design of projects for
air-conditioning upgrades in public buildings, solar net metering in office buildings, and hybrid
power generation in SPUG areas. The MFF is scheduled for approval by ADB’s Board of
Directors in 2010; the investments to be supported by CTF will be prepared and approved by
year-end 2010 and begin implementation in early 2011.

Rationale for CTF Financing

23. A combination of factors and constraints are barriers to large scale EE investment:

• Lack of management and technical expertise to identify new opportunities;

• Perceived financial risk, i.e., payback periods on large capital investments may be in the
range of seven-eight years or longer versus less than three years desired by building and
plant owners.
• Limited commercial financing for candidate investments.
• Limited policy support: energy conservation and EE efforts are essentially “all voluntary”
at the moment, with the exception of a more efficient lighting program (supported by the
ADB Philippines Energy Efficiency Project). The government is considering a formal
policy and/or energy conservation law to create the enabling framework for expanded
conservation and efficiency programs. In the absence of a more formal policy, large-scale
EE interventions are clearly not business as usual.
• Capital cost barriers: despite long-term cost savings, the proposed investments such as
solar PV and other RE technologies and systems do present a cost barrier to some
enterprises. Small and medium-scale enterprises have limited capital reserves and limited
access to commercial financing. Carbon finance may provide some financial support but
revenue would be “on delivery” and not on an up-front basis.

6
 • Perceived risks: the energy service company (ESCO) model is in early operational
stages, and is not considered “commercially” proven for purposes of conventional bank
financing. Likewise, net metering is a new concept in the Philippines and is not yet being
supported by commercial financing. CTF support will help remove “first mover” risk.
• The subprojects supported by CTF are replicable and scale-able without long-term
concessional financing. As the more efficient building owners’ enterprises gain
comparative advantage, intra-sector competition will help drive replication. Commercial
financing of EE will also increase as banks and other financial institutions gain
experience on the CTF-supported project, and as government-sponsored RE and EE
funds are replenished through taxation mechanisms.

Financing Plan

24. The indicative financing plan for the project is shown in the tables below.

Table 3: Financing Plan

Stage 1 Stage 2 Total: MFF

(2010-2012) (2013-2018) (2010-2018)
ADB 200 200 400
CTF 125 125
Government 50 50
Carbon Finance 50 50
Other Cofinancing 300 300
425 500 925
25. The indicative processing schedule for the project is shown in the table below.

Milestone Date
ADB PPTA TA Approval December 2009
Preparation Stage October 2009 – July 2010
Appraisal / Negotiations August – September 2010
Approvals October 2010
Project Completion December 2015

7
 Annex 3: Urban Transport Program (IBRD)

I Problem Statement

1. Vehicle ownership in the Philippines has been growing at the rate of 6 percent over the
past two decades and is not expected to slow down over the next 10-15 years. Moreover, the
urban population in the Philippines is expected to grow by over 35 million people by 2030.
Metro Manila at about 12 million today faces serious congestion, air quality and traffic safety
issues and is a major contributor to GHG emissions in the Philippines.

2. The transport sector’s contribution to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the

Philippines has increased significantly both in absolute and relative terms since 1990. CO2
emissions associated with the transport sector have risen from an estimated 6-10 million tons of
CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 1990 to about 29 MtCO2e in 2007, an annual increase of about 6-10
percent.19 Of additional concern is the more than doubling of the relative share of transport in
CO2 emissions from about 15 percent of total emissions (excluding those from land use and
forestry) in 1990 to about one third today.

3. Based on the current growth rates in motorization, emission contributions from road
transport, estimated at 24 MtCO2e in 2007, are projected to increase to 37 and 87 MtCO2e by
2015 and 2030 respectively under a business as usual (BAU) scenario. This would not only
result in a rapid increase in the country’s carbon footprint, but would further exacerbate air
quality and increase the already high levels of congestion leading to significant losses in
productivity.20 To minimize these negative impacts, a concerted effort from both the private and
public sectors is required to maximize the modal shift toward mass transit and the use of fuel-
efficient vehicles.

II Proposed Transformation

4. In an effort to reduce the country's carbon footprint and improve air quality, President
Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo issued an Administrative Order (AO) in January 2009 instructing
transport authorities to develop a National Environmentally Sustainable Transport Strategy
(NESTS) for the country. The AO requires DOTC to reform the transportation sector, by
defining and implementing policies favoring non-motorized transport and mass transport
systems, and leading to lower consumption of fossil fuels. In line with this initiative, the first
draft of the strategy report was prepared by DOTC in collaboration with the Department of the
Environment and National Resources (DENR), the Department of Health (DOH) and the
Department of Energy (DOE) with the assistance of the University of the Philippines’ National
Center for Transportation Studies (UPNCTS). The final draft is expected to be completed by
early 2010.
5. The first draft of the strategy identifies three broad areas where policies could lead to the
reduction in GHG emissions (i) the use of alternative fuels following DOE’s Alternative Fuels
19
Six MtCO2e is based on the World Resources Institute’s estimates, while 10 MtCO2e is based on the 2006 IPCC
guidelines for estimating fuel emissions.
20
A study prepared by the National Center for Transportation Studies for NEDA and the Legislative-Executive
Development Advisory Council in 2000 indicated that losses due to congestion in Metro Manila alone were
around 100 billion Pesos per year in 1996 prices, about 4.6 percent of GDP.

1
Program (covering Bioethanol, Biodiesel, Natural Gas for public transport and Autogas);
(ii) enhancing the efficiency of vehicles and tricycles; and (iii) traffic demand management
(including BRTs, LRTs, enhanced public transport planning). A June 2009 study commissioned
by the World Bank estimated the potential reductions in GHG emissions that would result from
adopting such policies. Using two scenarios, an aggressive-reduction scenario and a medium-
reduction scenario, the estimated reductions in GHGs for the year 2020 are 29 and 12 MtCO2e
respectively. By 2030, these reductions would increase to 54 and 28 MtCO2e for the aggressive
and medium scenarios respectively.21 This demonstrates the transformational impact that
NESTS could have in reducing greenhouse gases.

6. In particular, the successful introduction of BRT systems as part of a well integrated

public transport system in the Philippines starting with Cebu and followed by Metro Manila is
expected to increase the awareness and acceptance of these systems as well as the realization of
their cost effectiveness and attractiveness. The transformational impact of these mass transit
systems lies as much in the reduction of GHGs (estimated at about 2-3 MtCO2e per annum), as in
their large development potential in providing better and safer mobility, particularly for the poor,
a cleaner environment and increased economic productivity.

7. As far as the direct benefits of the BRT investments proposed for CTF financing in Metro
Manila and Cebu City, the expected reduction in GHG emissions in the early years is about
600,000-800,000 tCO2e per annum. The gains would be expected to increase as traffic
conditions and congestion would worsen over time. Moreover, replication potential is high, as
there is low technology risk and substantial private sector interest.

8. The introduction of BRT in Metro Manila and Cebu City is an integral part of the
national strategy (NESTS) to improve livability in the cities through better mobility, a reduction
in pollution and an increase in the cities’ productivity. This is particularly clear in Cebu City,
which has a population of about 900,000 and is only served by an informal public transit system
consisting of motorized tricycles, jeepneys, and taxis. The situation is unlikely to improve,
without the development and implementation of a comprehensive urban transport plan, as most
of the economic and land development in Cebu City continues to occur at the city’s fringes,
particularly in the northeast. This sprawling pattern of urban development will only exacerbate
the negative conditions if not promptly addressed.

9. Cebu City has chosen to take an aggressive approach to improve its public transport
system and use the inducement of public transport and other traffic management schemes to
promote sustainable land use patterns in rapidly urbanizing parts of the city such as the northeast
as well as in the planned new development in the South Reclamation Project Area.

21
The two scenarios are presented in detail in section III on the Priority Sectors for GHG Emission Reductions. The
main differences in the two scenarios are in the time trajectory for meeting certain targets in a number of areas
(biofuel use, asset preservation, inspected vehicles, tricycle conversion from two to four strokes, the deployment
of BRT and LRT, and the introduction of traffic management).

2
10. Similarly in the case of Metro Manila, the proposed BRT is the backbone of integrated
public transport plan aimed at enhancing mobility. The plan includes feeder routes, pedestrian
and commuter access stations and terminals as well as non motorized transport requirements.

11. Specifically, the proposed CTF co-financed investments will include:

a. Investments in about 50 km of BRT systems in three main corridors in Manila and Cebu
City, as part of system-wide transformation of urban transport in these cities. The more
advanced Corridor in Cebu City could become a model for other BRT systems in the
country. Investments will include busways, terminals, stations, control systems, the
development of a feeder route system, pedestrian and commuter access.
b. Institutional development to strengthen the capacity of transport officials from DoTC and
other major cities in planning for, and implementing, NESTS and the National Transport
Plan (2011-2016) and in general transport planning, regulation, monitoring and
administration.

III. Implementation Readiness

12. As demonstrated in the IP, there is strong ownership of the proposed investment
interventions by the government of the Philippines and the enabling environment to support
implementation. Moreover, the Philippines experience in implementing LRT and bus projects
demonstrates the capacity of the project management unit to implement the proposed projects.

IV. Rationale for CTF Financing

13. Despite the large development impact of BRTs in these corridors, their high level of
GHG reduction and high replication potential, the lack of knowledge in the Philippines of BRT
systems coupled with the familiarity with the more expensive LRT has impeded the development
of BRTs. .

14. In addition, while the investment cost of BRT systems is significantly cheaper than that
of rail projects, the costs are still high compared to regular buses and often beyond the financial
capacity of local governments with tight budgets and large demands. Carbon finance has not
been effective in mobilizing the necessary investments for large scale emissions in the transport
sector.

15. Given that the Philippines is yet to develop a BRT system, CTF financing and support is
crucial to help overcome some of the initial financial and institutional barriers and would help
demonstrate at scale successful deployment for BRT systems in the Philippines. CTF will help
support municipal governments in speeding and scaling up BRT investments. Key to the success
of this planned deployment is an enhanced design of the BRT system that is fully integrated into
the public transport system. In the case of secondary cities such as Cebu, the BRT design will be
used to influence land use planning and management in an environmentally sustainable manner.
This would in turn lead to more BRTs than is currently envisioned as other cities start to
recognize their benefits. Emerging metropolitan areas such as Metro Davao, Naga, Bacolod,

3
Iloilo and Cagayan de Oro have been identified as potential sites for BRT project
implementation.

V. Financing Plan

Source Total
GOP 50
IBRD 250
CTF 50
Total 350

VI. Program Preparation Timetable

Milestones Dates
Government concept approval/Bank concept November 2009
review
Project preparation November 2009-June 2010
Appraisal/Negotiations March-June 2010
Approval December 2010
Project Implementation Start March 2011