Probability

Concept of Probability
In the study of probability, we shall consider activities for which the outcome cannot be predicted with
certainty. These activities, called experiment, could always result in a single outcome. Although the single
outcome cannot be predicted before the performance of the experiment, the set of all possible outcomes can be
determined. This set of all possible outcomes is referred to as the sample space. Each individual element or
outcome in a sample space is known as a sample point.
A subset of S called event shall be a collection of possible outcomes of the experiment.
Example
1. Consider the activity of rolling a die. This activity has six possible outcomes,
that is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
2. If a pair of dice is rolled, then determine the number of sample points of the following.
a. Sample space
b. Event of getting a sum of 5
c. Event of getting a sum of at most 4
3. A box contains 6 red and 4 green balls. If three balls are drawn from the box, then determine the
number of sample points of the following
a. The sample space
b. The event of getting all red balls
c. The event of getting 1 red and 2 green balls.

Probability is the chance that an event will happen. The probability of an event A denoted by P(A)
refers to a number between 0 and 1 including the values and 1. This number can be expressed as a fraction, as a
decimal or as a percent. When we assign probability of 0 to an event A, it means that it is impossible for event
A to occur. When event A is assigned a probability of 1, then we say that event A will really occur.
The probability of occurrence plus the probability of non occurrence is always equal to 1. Therefore, in
the given observation or experiment, an event must occur or not. If we let A’ be th eevent that A will not occur,
then we shall say that
P(A) + P(A’) = 1
From the formula above, we can have
P(A) = 1 – P(A’) or P(A’) = 1 – P(A)
Example : A student in a statistics class was able to compute the probability of passing the subject to be equal
to 0.46. Based on this information, what is the probability that he is not going to pass the subject?

Classical Probability
In this approach, an experiment shall be performed. One of the assumptions in classical probability is the
probability of each sample point must be equal.
The computing formula for the classical probability of an event A is given by
𝑛(𝐴)
P(A) =
𝑛(𝑆)
Where n(A) represents the number of sample point in event A
n(S) represents the number of sample points in sample space
Example
1. If a coin is tossed, what is the probability of getting a head?
2. If two coins are tossed, what is the probability of getting both heads?
3. If a die is rolled, what is the probability of getting
a. an odd number?
b. an even number?
c. a perfect square?
4. If a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability og getting
a. a sum of 6?
b. a sum of less than 13?
c. a sum of 13?
d. a sum of at least 10?

A. ADDITION RULE
Let A and B be an events then these two events can be combined to form another event. The event that
at least one of the events A or B will happen is denoted by A ∪ B. The event that both events A and B
will occur is denoted by A ∩ B. The probability of A ∪ B denoted by P(A ∪ B) is given by

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

1. Consider the activity of rolling a die and let A, B, and C be the events of getting an odd number, an even
number and a perfect square respectively. Determine the probability of getting
a. an odd or an even number.
b. an even number or a perfect square.
2. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability of getting
a. an ace or a king.
b. a king or a face card.
c. a black card or a queen.

B. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability is the probability that a second event will occur if the first event already
happened. Symbolically, conditional probability is written as P(A I B) and is read as the “ probability of
event A given that event B has occurred”. The computing formula for the conditional probability of A
given B is given by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A I B) = provided that P(B) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐵)
In the conditional probability, the occurrence of event B specifies the new sample space for
which w want to calculate the probability of the part of A that is contained in
By using classical probability
𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵) 𝑛(𝐵)
P(A∩B) = and P(B) =
𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛(𝑆)
Thus equation will become
𝑛(𝐴∩𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)
P(A I B) =
𝑛(𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)

𝒏(𝑨∩𝑩)
Therefore P(A I B) =
𝒏(𝑩)

Example :

1. Let P(A) = 0.4 ; P(B) = 0.5 and P(A∩B) = 0.3, find the value of the following
a. P(A I B)
b. P(B I A)
2. Suppose that P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A∩B) = 0.2. Given that the outcome of the experiment
belongs to B. What is then the probability of A?
3. A die is rolled. If the result is an even number, what is the probability that it is a perfect square?
4. A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards. Given that the card is a face card, then what is the
probability of getting
a. a king?
b. a spade?
c. a red card?
 5. A vendor has 35 balloons on strings. Twenty balloons are yellow, 8 are red and 7 are green. A
balloon was selected at random and sold. Given that the balloon selected and sold is yellow. What is
the probability that the next balloon selected and sold at random is also yellow?
6. A box contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn in succession with replacement from the
box. What is the probability of getting
a. red on the first draw?
b. red on the second given that it is red on the first?
7. A box contains 6 black and 5 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn from the box in succession
without replacement. What is the probability of getting
a. black on the first draw?
b. black on the second draw given that it is black on the first draw?
c. black on the second draw given that it is yellow on the first draw?

C. MULTIPLICATION RULE
We have shown that formula for conditional probability is given by
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(A I B) = provided that P(B) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐵)
In the formula above is cross multiplied and solved for P(A∩B), then we have
P(A∩B) = P(A I B) P(B)
The computing formula for the probability of events A and B will both occur. Furthermore, if the
occurrence of A does not affect the probability of occurrence of B, or vice versa, then we say that A and
B are independent events, otherwise they are dependent events.
If event and B are independent events, then we say that
P(A I B) = P(A) or P(B I A) = P(B)
The equation shall become
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)
Example
1. A box contains 3 red and 8 black balls. If two balls are drawn in succession without replacement.
What is the probability that
a. both are red?
b. the first ball is red and the second ball is black?
2. If a die is thrown twice. What is the probability of getting both 6?
3. Box A contains 5 blue and 4 white balls. Box B has 2 red and 5 white balls. One ball is drawn at
random from box A and transferred to box B without looking at the color of the ball that is drawn.
What is the probability of drawing a blue ball from box B?
4. Referring to example 3, what is the probability of drawing a white ball from box B?