System Reliability Center

201 Mill Street

Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722-8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP)

THERP is the best known, most frequently applied technique for human performance
reliability prediction. It is a method for predicting human error rates and for evaluating the
degradation of a human-machine system likely to be caused by human errors in association
with factors such as equipment reliability, procedures, and other factors. THERP uses
performance-shaping factors to make judgments about particular situations. In some
cases, however, it may be difficult to accommodate all of the factors that are considered
important. THERP has the advantage of simplicity but it does not account for a dependency
of human performance reliability with time.

THERP involves five steps:

1. Define the system or process. This involves describing the system goals and functions
and the consequences of not achieving them. It also requires identifying mission,
personnel, and hardware/software characteristics.

2. Identify and list all the human operations performed and their relationships to the
system or process tasks and functions. This requires an analysis of all operator and
maintainer tasks.

3. Predict error rates for each human operation or group of operations. Errors likely to be
made in each task or subtask must be identified. Errors that are not significant in terms
of system operation are ignored. This step includes estimating the likelihood of each
error occurring and the likelihood of an error not being detected.

4. Determine the effect of human errors on the system or process, including the
consequences of the error not being detected. This requires the development of event
trees. The left limbs of the event trees are success paths; the right limbs are failure
paths. Probabilities are assigned to each path. The tree reflects the effects of task
dependence. The relative effects of performance-shaping factors, e.g., stress and
experience, are estimated.

5. Develop and recommend changes that will reduce the system or process failure rate.
The recommended changes can be developed using sensitivity analyses, in which
factors and values are varied and effects monitored. THERP makes no assumptions
about the dependence or independence of personnel behaviors. Data are taken from
available sources.

A key aspect of THERP is the determination of the probability that an error or class of errors
will result in a system or process failure. This probability is assigned a value Fi. Branching
trees are constructed to determine the paths to success and failure as shown in Figure 1.
The probability that an error will occur is given by Pi. Table 1 shows some sample
probabilities. FiPi is the joint probability that an error will occur and that the error will lead
to system failure. 1-FiPi is the probability that an operation will be performed that does not
lead to system failure. The probability that a class of errors will lead to system failure is
given by:

Qi = 1 - (1 - FiPi )ni

1
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722-8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) (Cont'd)

where ni is the number of independent operations. The total system or subsystem failure
rate is given by:

n
Q T = 1 - [∏ 1 (1 - Qk )]
where QT is the probability that one or more failure conditions will result from errors in at
least one of the n failure classes.

RO fails to carry Crew fails to diagnose

out required step in event correctly in 20
"Immediate minutes
Actions"

c1=.99
C1=.01
d1=.98
D1=.02

d2=.49
p1=.97 D2=.51
Q1=.01

p2=.01 SRO fails to

correct RO's
error
Q2=.01

Figure 1. Sample THERP Probability Tree

Table 1. Sample THERP Error Probabilities

Human Error Error
Item Checking Operation Probability Factor
1 Checking routing tasks using written manuals 0.1 5
2 Same as above but without manual 0.2 5
3 Special short-term, one-of-a-kind checking with alerting 0.05 5

2
 System Reliability Center
201 Mill Street
Rome, NY 13440-6916
888.722-8737
or 315.337.0900
Fax: 315.337.9932

Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) (Cont'd)

THERP can be used for design analysis, manpower selection, prediction of system
effectiveness, and determination of training requirements. For design analysis, it allows the
comparison of alternative system or process configurations in terms of effect on operator
capability. It also allows comparative analysis of initial configuration options and
reconfiguration if deficiencies are identified. For manpower selection, THERP allows the
determination of the types, numbers, and skill levels of the personnel required to operate
the system. For system effectiveness, THERP allows an assessment of whether quantitative
requirements will be met. The determination of training requirements is more implicit than
explicit. Unacceptable task performance error rates suggest the need for training to
improve proficiency. Hence, THERP can suggest the need for training rather than specific
training topics.

Copyright  2005 Alion Science and Technology. All rights reserved.

Source:
• LaSala, K.P., RAC Publication “A Practical Guide to Developing Reliable Human-
Machine Systems and Processes”, January 2002.

For More Information:

• Swain, A.D., "THERP", SC-R-64-1338, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque,
NM, August 1964.
• Swain A.D. and Guttman, H.E., “Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with
Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications” (NUREG/CR-1278, SAND800 200,
RX, AN), Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, August 1983.