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Mohnish Pabrai's Valuation Model (Modified) : FCF (Free Cash Flow)

This document contains a valuation model for a company using discounted cash flow analysis over 10 years. It shows the company's cash from operating activities, capital expenditures, and free cash flow from 2009 to 2018. It then estimates future free cash flows from 2019 to 2028 using growth rates that decrease over time. The intrinsic value is calculated as the sum of the present values of these future cash flows. This is compared to the current market capitalization and number of shares to determine if the company is under or overvalued.

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soham
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448 views8 pages

Mohnish Pabrai's Valuation Model (Modified) : FCF (Free Cash Flow)

This document contains a valuation model for a company using discounted cash flow analysis over 10 years. It shows the company's cash from operating activities, capital expenditures, and free cash flow from 2009 to 2018. It then estimates future free cash flows from 2019 to 2028 using growth rates that decrease over time. The intrinsic value is calculated as the sum of the present values of these future cash flows. This is compared to the current market capitalization and number of shares to determine if the company is under or overvalued.

Uploaded by

soham
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Particulars ( In Cr ) Mar '09 Mar '10

Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 13,590 26,866


Capital Expenditure ( Capex ) -3,151 -2,116
FCF ( free Cash Flow ) 1,044 2,475
Average FCF (3 Years)

Mohnish Pabrai's Valuation M


Year

1 FY19
2 FY20

3 FY21

4 FY22

5 FY23

6 FY24

7 FY25

8 FY26
9 FY27

10 FY28

10 Exit Value
Intrinsic Value ( Sum of PV )
Current Market Capital
No of Shares Outstanding
Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14

22,881 23,598 18,904 29,630


-3,641 -5,650 -6,076 -9,415

1,924 1,795 1,283 2,022

ai's Valuation Model ( Modified) FCF Growth Rates

FCF ( estimated ) PV of FCF


Year 1-3 12.7%
Year 4-6 11.0%
3,032 2,700 Year 7-10 10%
3,418 2,710 Discount Rate 12.3%
Exit Rate
3,852 2,720 19.99
4,275 2,688

4,746 2,657 TARGET Price


5,268 2,626 ( For a VERY Stable Comp
5,794 2,572 ENTRY Price
6,374 2,520
7,011 2,468 ( For an Average Compan
7,712 2,418 ENTRY Price
154,170 48,328
e ( Sum of PV ) 74,408
arket Capital ###
s Outstanding 19.97
Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18

21,855 37,964 40,072 40,172


-12,329 -17,080 -12,381 -8,024

953 2,088 2,769 3,215

2,691

ARGET Price 3,726


r a VERY Stable Company 2.5/3 Times of Target Price )

ENTRY Price 3,105

r an Average Company 2/3 Times of Target Price )

ENTRY Price 2,484


Particulars ( In Cr ) Mar '09 Mar '10
10 9
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 13590 26866
Capex -3151 -2116
FCF 1044 2475
Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17
8 7 6 5 4 3 2

22881 23598 18904 29630 21855 37964 40072

-3641 -5650 -6076 -9415 -12329 -17080 -12381


1924 1795 1283 2022 953 2088 2769
Mar '18
1

40172

-8024
3215

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