STATISTICS 8, MIDTERM EXAM 2

NAME: Seat Number: ____________

Last six digits of Student ID#: ___________________ Circle your Discussion Section: 1 2 3 4

Make sure you have 6 pages, including Table A.1 on the last page.
You may use two pages of notes (both sides) and a calculator.
Multiple choice questions: There are 10 questions worth 4 points each (10 x 4 pts each = 40 pts).
Instructions will be given when those begin on page 4.
Free response questions: Show all work. If you need extra space use the back of the page, but make sure to
tell us it’s there. Total of 60 points; points for each part of each question are shown.

1. (10 pts total) The sensitivity of a medical test for a certain disease is .90 and results are independent from
one patient to the next. Three people who have the disease are tested.

a. (4 pts) For each person tested, what is the probability that the test does not detect the disease, i.e. is a
false negative?

1 – .90 = .10

b. (6 pts) What is the probability that at least one of the tests for three people with the disease comes out
negative?

1 – P(0 negative tests) = 1 – (.90)3 = 1 – .729 = .271

For use by graders: Free response points:

Question 1: ________ out of 10

Question 2: ________ out of 16

Question 3: ________ out of 26

Question 4: _________ out of 8

Free response score:__________

Multiple choice score:__________

Total score: ____________

2. (16 pts total) A new drug is being proposed for the treatment of migraine headaches. Unfortunately some
users in early tests of the drug have reported mild nausea as a side effect. The FDA will not approve the
drug if it thinks that more than 15% (i.e. 0.15) of the population would suffer from this side effect. In an
experiment to test this side effect, 400 people who suffer from migraine headaches receive the new drug
and report any adverse effects. Suppose that in fact, 20% (i.e. 0.2) of the population would have mild
nausea if they were to take the drug. Let p̂ be the proportion of the sample of 400 drug users in this
study who will suffer mild nausea.

a. (2 pts each) Give the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution of p̂ .

Mean = ______.20____ (This is the population proportion who would have mild nausea.)

(.2)(.8)
Standard deviation =  .02
400

b. (4 pts) Draw a picture of the sampling distribution of p̂ , marking the mean and the intervals that
cover the middle 68% and 95% of the possible values.

Sampling distribution of p-hat

Normal, Mean=0.2, StDev=0.02

68%

95%

0.15 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24

possible values of p-hat

c. (4 pts) On your figure in Part (b) show where the proportion of 0.15 would fall and compute the z-
score for this value.

.15  .20
See graph for placement of 0.15. z   2.5
.02

d. (4 pts) The FDA will approve the drug if fewer than 15% of those in the sample experience mild
nausea. What is the probability that the FDA will approve the drug based on this study?

P ( pˆ  .15)  P( z  2.5)  .0062 (from Table A.1)

3. (26 pts total) A medical school knows that students will be more successful in their program if they have
studied a foreign language in college. They collect data on all of the students who graduated from their
school in the past 15 years. Define the following events:

A = Student studied a foreign language in college

B = Student graduated from the medical school with honors

Suppose 60% of the students studied a foreign language in college. Of those students, 30% graduated
from medical school with honors. Of the 40% of students who did not study a foreign language in
college, only 20% graduated from the medical school with honors.

a. (2 pts each) Provide values for the following:

P(A) = ____.60______ P(B | A) = ___.30_____ P(B | AC)= ___.20______

b. (10 pts) Draw a tree diagram for this situation or construct a hypothetical hundred thousand table.

Total probability

.3 B .18

.6 A .7
BC .42

.4 .2 B .08
C
A
.8
BC .32

Graduated with honors Did not graduate w/honors Total

Took language 18,000 42,000 60,000
No language 8,000 32,000 40,000
Total 26,000 74,000 100,000

c. (6 pts) Using your diagram or table in Part (b), find the probability that a student who graduated with
honors had studied a foreign language in college. In other words, find P(A | B).

.18 .18 18, 000

From the tree diagram:   .6923 ; From the table:  .6923
.18  .08 .26 26, 000

d. (4 pts) Based on this information, can the medical school conclude that studying a foreign language
in college causes students to do better in medical school? Briefly explain.

No. This was an observational study, so we cannot conclude cause and effect.
4. (8 pts total) The quiz for this class each week has 5 multiple choice questions with 4 choices each, worth
2 points each. Suppose someone is just guessing on every question. Define two random variables:
X = total number of questions correct Y = total points earned.

a. (4 pts) Does X have a binomial distribution? If so, specify n and p. If not, explain which condition is
not met.

Binomial, n = 5 and p = 1/4

b. (2 pts each) Fill in numerical values:

E(X) = np = 5(1/4) = 1.25 E(Y) = 2 × E(X) = 2 × (1.25) = 2.5

MULTIPLE CHOICE
 You have Exam Version D. Write this on your Scantron on the “SUBJECT” line.
 Fill in and bubble your ID at the top of the Scantron. Put Discussion Section in “HOUR” line.
 Circle the best answer on this exam paper and bubble in the Scantron sheet.

1. Suppose that the mean of the sampling distribution for the difference in two sample proportions is 0. This
tells us that:
A. The two population proportions are both 0.
B. The two population proportions are equal to each other.
C. The two sample proportions are both 0.
D. The two sample proportions are equal to each other.

2. If A and B are independent events (both with probability greater than 0) then which of the following
statements must be true?
A. P(A) + P(B) = 1
B. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
C. P(A and B) = 0
D. P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B)

3. Which of the following does not have a sampling distribution?

A. Sample proportion p̂
B. The point estimate for the population proportion
C. Sample mean x
D. Population proportion p

4. A sales person makes “cold calls” trying to sell a product by phone and is successful on each call with
probability 1/50. Whether or not he is successful is independent from one call to the next. If he calls 50
people, the number of successful calls is:
A. exactly 1, since he called 50 people and the probability of success is 1/50 each time.
B. at most 1, because once he has been successful he can’t be successful again in the 50 calls.
C. a binomial random variable.
D. equally likely to be 0, 1 or 2.
5. The expected value of a random variable is
A. always computed as np.
B. the value that has the highest probability of occurring.
C. always one of the possible values for the random variable.
D. the mean value over an infinite number of observations of the variable.

6. Suppose that a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of men over 60 who have high blood pressure
is .30 to .40. Which of the following is the best interpretation of this information?
A. 95% of the men in the sample have blood pressure that is between 30% and 40% too high.
B. 95% of the men in the population have blood pressure that is between 30% and 40% too high.
C. We can be fairly confident (about 95%) that the proportion of men in the sample who have high
blood pressure is between .30 and .40.
D. We can be fairly confident (about 95%) that the proportion of men in the population who have
high blood pressure is between .30 and .40.

7. A swim club randomly chose one of its members to feature in its newsletter. The story provided the
following information: Allison is 28 years old, and has always loved water sports. She swam
competitively when she was in high school, and she enjoys surfing. In college, she majored in exercise
science. Which one of the following statements about Allison is most likely?
A. Allison teaches at a high school.
B. Allison teaches at a high school and is the swim coach for the school.
C. Allison teaches at a high school during the school year and spends the summers surfing.
D. There is no way to know which of the above statements is most likely.

8. All of the following are ways to show that A and B are mutually exclusive events except one of them.
Which one does not show that A and B are mutually exclusive? My mistake; there were 2 correct
answers! You will get credit for either one of them.
A. P(A|B) = 0
B. P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
C. P(A) = 1 – P(AC)
D. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

9. When a random sample is to be taken from a population and a statistic is to be computed, the statistic can
also be thought of as
A. A point estimate
B. A random variable
C. Both of the above
D. None of the above

10. You buy coffee at a kiosk at random times. The following table gives the probability distribution for X =
number of customers in line when you show up (not including you):

k 0 1 2 3 4
P(X = k) 0.15 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.05

What is the probability that there will be at least two people in line when you show up?
A. 0.25
B. 0.40
C. 0.65
D. 0.75