PROBABILITY

AND
STATISTICS
ME2101

Khusnun Widiyati, PhD

Department of Mechanical Engineering
WHY TO STUDY
PROBABILITY
AND STATISTICS
EXAMPLES
WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO LEARN
THIS TERM

MID FINAL

• Sampling Distribution
• Basic Concepts in
• Parameter Estimation
Probability
• Hypothesis Testing
• Probability Distributions
• Regression and
• Random Variables
Correlation
• Descriptive Statistics
• Design of Experiment

References
1. Montgomery, Douglas, “Applied statistics and probability for engineers”, John Wiley and Sons
2. Walpole, Myers, “Probability and statistics for engineers and scientists”, Pearson Education
GRADING SYSTEM

ASSIGNMENTS 20%
QUIZ 10%
MID-TEST 30%
FINAL-TEST 40%
THIS WEEK’S TOPIC………………

BASIC
CONCEPTS
IN
PROBABILITY
(1)
OUTCOMES
After careful study of this chapter, you should be
able to do the following:

1. Understand and describe sample

spaces and events
2. Interpret probabilities and calculate
probabilities of events
3. Use permutations and combinations
to count outcomes
 RANDOM
EXPERIMENT ?
An experiment that results in different outcomes
even when repeated in the same manner every
time

carried out under

controlled conditions

Random Experiment is
a procedure that is
executed to discover an
unknown result
SAMPLE
SPACE ?
The set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment

it consists of a finite or
Discrete countable infinite set of
outcomes

Types of
Sample Space

it contains an interval of
Continuous
real numbers
Example 2-1: Defining Sample Spaces

Randomly select a camera and record the

1 recycle time of a flash.
S = R+ = {x | x > 0}, the positive real numbers.

Suppose it is known that all recycle times

2 are between 1.5 and 5 seconds.
Then S = {x | 1.5 < x < 5}

It is known that the recycle time has only

3 three values(low, medium or high). Then
S = {low, medium, high}

Does the camera conform to minimum

4 recycle time specifications?
S = {yes, no}
Defining Sample Spaces
By A Tree Diagram

An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then

flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a tail
occurs on the first flip, then a dice is tossed once.
To list the elements of the sample space providing
the most information, we construct the tree
diagram
Define these aspects:
S1…………………..?
S2…………………..?
Tree Diagram

S1 = { H, T },
S2 = { 1, … ,6 }
S = { HH, HT, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6 }
EVENTS
?
An event (E) is a subset of the sample space of a random
experiment

Event combinations…

1. The Union of two events consists of all outcomes that

are contained in one event or the other, denoted as
E1 E2.
2. The Intersection of two events consists of all
outcomes that are contained in one event and the
other, denoted as E1 E2.
3. The Complement of an event is the set of outcomes
in the sample space that are not contained in the
event, denoted as E .
Example 2-3 Discrete Events

Suppose that the recycle times of two cameras are recorded. Consider only
whether or not the cameras conform to the manufacturing specifications. We
abbreviate yes and no as y and n. The sample space is S = {yy, yn, ny, nn}.

Suppose, E1 denotes an event that at least one camera conforms to

specifications, find E1 !
Suppose, E2 denotes an event that no camera conforms to specifications,
find E2 !
Suppose, E3 denotes an event that at least one camera does not conform,
find E3 !

Then find E1 E3 , E 1 E3 , and E1

Venn Diagrams
Events A & B contain their respective outcomes. The
shaded regions indicate the event relation of each
diagram.
Mutually Exclusive Events

• Events A and B are mutually exclusive because

they share no common outcomes.

• The occurrence of one event precludes the

occurrence of the other.

• Symbolically, A B=Ø
Mutually Exclusive Events - Laws
• Commutative law (event order is unimportant):
• A B=B A and A B=B A

• Distributive law (like in algebra):

• (A B) C = (A C) (B C)
• (A B) C = (A C) (B C)

• Associative law (like in algebra):

• (A B) C=A (B C)
• (A B) C=A (B C)

DeMorgan’s law:
(A ∪ B) = A ∩ B The complement of the union is the intersection of the complements.
(A ∩ B) = A ∪ B The complement of the intersection is the union of the complements.

Complement law:
(A) = A.
Counting Techniques
used to determine the number of outcomes in events.

Multiplication Rule

Techniques Permutation Rule

Combination Rule

ALERT!!!!!
Each has its special purpose that must be applied properly – the right
tool for the right job.
Counting -
Multiplication Rule

• Multiplication rule:
• Let an operation consist of k steps and there are
• n1 ways of completing step 1,
• n2 ways of completing step 2, … and
• nk ways of completing step k.
• Then, the total number of ways to perform k steps is:

n1 · n2 · … · nk
 Example 2-5 - Web Site Design

In the design for a website, we can

choose to use among
4 colors,
3 fonts, and
3 positions for an image.

How many designs are

possible?
Counting –
Permutation Rule

A permutation is a unique sequence of distinct

items.
If S = {a, b, c}, then there are 6 permutations
Namely: abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba (order matters)

Number of permutations for a set of n items is

n! = n·(n-1)·(n-2)·…·2·1

For a sequence of r items from a set of n items:

Example 2-6 Printed Circuit Board

A printed circuit board has eight

different locations in which a
component can be placed. If four
different components are to be placed
on the board,

how many designs are

possible?
Counting –
Similar Item Permutations
Used for counting the sequences when some items
are identical.

The number of permutations of:

n = n1 + n2 + … + nr items of which
n1, n2, …., nr are identical.

is calculated as:
Example 2-7: Hospital Schedule

In a hospital, an operating room needs

to schedule three knee surgeries and
two hip surgeries in a day. The knee
surgery is denoted as k and the hip as
h.

How many sequences are there?

What is the set of sequences?
Counting –
Combination Rule
a selection of r items from a set of n where order does not
matter.
If S = {a, b, c}, n =3, then
If r = 3, there is 1 combination,
namely: abc
If r = 2, there are 3 combinations,
namely ab, ac, and bc
Example 2-8:
Sampling without Replacement

A bin of 50 parts contains 3 defectives

and 47 non-defective parts. A sample of
6 parts is selected from the 50 without
replacement.

How many samples of size 6 contain 2

defective parts?
PROBABILITY
 PROBABILITY
is the likelihood or chance that a
particular outcome or event from a
random experiment will occur.

Probability is a number in the [0,1] interval.

0 impossibility

1 certainty
Types of Probability

Subjective probability is a “degree of belief.”

1 Example: “There is a 50% chance that I’ll
study tonight.”

Relative frequency probability is based on how often an

2 event occurs over a very large sample space.
Example:
 Probability of an Event
For a discrete sample space, the probability of
an event E, denoted by P(E), equals the sum of
the probabilities of the outcomes in E.

The discrete sample space

may be:
• A finite set of outcomes
• A countably infinite set
of outcomes.
Axioms of Probability
• Probability is a number that is assigned to each
member of a collection of events from a random
experiment that satisfies the following properties:

If S is the sample space and E is any event in the

random experiment,
1. P(S) = 1
2. 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
3. For any two events E1 and E2 with E1 E2 = Ø,
P(E1 E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)

• The axioms imply that:

• P(Ø) =0 and P(E′ ) = 1 – P(E)
• If E1 is contained in E2, then P(E1) ≤ P(E2).
 Example 2-9: Probabilities of Events

A random experiment has a sample space

{a,b,c,d}. These outcomes are not equally-
likely; their probabilities are: 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.1.
Let Event A = {a,b}, B = {b,c,d}, and C = {d}

Calculate
1. P(A), P(B) and P(C)
2. P(A’), P(B’) and P(C’)
Probability of a Union
• For any two events A and B, the probability of
union is given by:

• If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then

Addition Rule: 3 or More Events

Note the alternating signs.

Example 2-10: Semiconductor Wafers

A wafer is randomly selected from a

batch that is classified by contamination
and location.

Location of Tool
Contamination Total
Center Edge
Low 514 68 582
High 112 246 358
Total 626 314 940
Calculate:
P(H), P(C), P(
Assignment #1
• 4 questions
• Due: 26 August 2018
• Submit to plastic sleeve located in front of lecturer
room based on your class.
ME-1 ME-2