How A Weather Forecast Is Made
How A Weather Forecast Is Made
its phenomena; specifically that of weather and climate and its effects
on the earth's surface, oceans and life in general.
The materials in this web page were compiled and simplified to help our
readers gain a better understanding of the information disseminated and
services offered by PAGASA for people from all walks of life. On a broader
scope, this web page aims to provide its readers insight on the dynamics
of the weather which changes on a daily basis and of the climate which
changes over a greater period of time.
Surface observations are made at least every three hours over land and sea. Land-based weather stations around the world and automatic stations observe the atmospheric
pressure, wind direction and speed, temperature of the air, humidity, clouds, precipitation and visibility using standard weather instruments such as the barometer, wind vane,
anemometer, thermometer, psychrometer or hygrometer and raingauge. In addition to these, coastal weather stations, weather ships and ocean data buoy observe the state of the
sea by observing the height and period of wave.
Upper air stations around the world also make observations at least every twelve hours. The pressure, temperature, dew point temperature, wind direction and speed are observed at
selected levels in the atmosphere using radiosondes which record these data by tracking helium-filled balloons attached to transmitters. Another apparatus, the theodolite, is used in
observing wind direction and speed also at selected levels. In addition to these, commercial air planes observe the weather along their routes at specified times.
Meteorological satellites, geostationary and polar orbiting, take pictures of the cloud imagery of the atmosphere. These satellites take picture of the earth's cloud formations every
hour and continuously, respectively.
Weather radars are also used to observe the cloud coverage within the range of the radar.
A vast array of weather data are fed to the computer which analyzes them as programmed and makes a time integration of physical equations. This is called numerical weather
prediction.
4th Step: Analysis Of Weather Maps, Satellite And Radar Imageries And Other Data
Current weather maps are analyzed as follows:
SURFACE (MSL) CHART: The data plotted on this weather map are analyzed isobarically. This means the same atmospheric pressure at different places are inter-connected with a line taking into
consideration the direction of the wind. Through this analysis, weather systems or the so-called centers of action such as high and low pressure areas, tropical cyclones, cold and warm fronts, intertropical
convergence zone, can be located and delineated.
UPPER AIR CHARTS: The data plotted on this weather map are analyzed using streamline analysis. Lines are drawn to illustrate the flow of the wind. With this kind of analysis, anticyclones or high
pressure areas and cyclones or low pressure areas can be delineated.
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT: The computer-plotted weather maps are analyzed manually so that weather systems like cyclones and anticyclones, troughs, etc. are located.
MONITOR WEATHER CHARTS: Plotted data on the cross-section, rainfall and 24-hour pressure change charts are analyzed to determine the movement of wind waves, rainfall distribution and the behavior of the
atmospheric pressure.
Compare the current weather maps with the previous 24 - 72 hour weather maps level by level to determine the development and movement of weather systems that may affect the forecast area.
Examine the latest weather satellite picture, noting the cloud formations in relation to the weather systems on the current weather maps.
Compare the latest weather satellite picture with the previous satellite pictures (up to 48 hours) noting the development and movement of weather systems that may affect the country.
Examine the latest computer output of the numerical weather prediction model noting the 24-hour, 48-hour and 72-hour objective forecast of the weather systems that may affect the forecast area.
Analyze the latest radar reports and other minor forecasting tools.