> Chapter INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY Wl 12 13 4 1s 16 ‘The History of Probability 17 Counting Methods Interpretations of Probability 18 Combinatorial Methods Experiments and Events 19 Multinomial Coefficients Set Theory 110 The Probability of a Union of The Desinition of Probability LLL Statistical Swindles Finite Sample Spaces LIZ. Supplementary Exercises 1.1 The History of Probability The use of probability to measure uncertainty and variability dates back hundreds of years, Probability has found application in areas as diverse as medicine, gam- bling, weather forecasting, and the law. ‘The concepts of chance and uncertainty are as old as civilization itself, People have always had to cope with uncertainty about the weather, their food supply, and other aspects of their environment, and have striven to reduce this uncertainty and its cellects. Even the idea of gambling has a long history. By about the year 3500 ne, ‘games of chance played with bone objects that could be considered precursors of dice were apparently highly developed in Egypt and elsewhere, Cubical dice with markings virtually identical to those on modern dice have been found in Egyptian tombs dating from 2000 2.c. We know that gambling with dice has been popular ever since that time and played an important part in the early development of probability theory, Itis generally believed that the mathematical theory of probability was started by the French mathematicians Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre Fermat (1601-1665 when they succeeded in deriving exact probabilities for certain gambling problems involving dice. Some ofthe problems that they solved had been outstanding for about 300 years. However, numerical probabilities of various dice combinations had been calculated previously by Girolamo Cardano (1501-1576) and Galileo Galilei (1564— 1642). The theory of probability has been developed steadily since the seventeenth century and has been widely applied in diverse fields of study. Today, probability theory is an important tool in most areas of engineering, science, and management, ‘Many research workers are actively engaged in the discovery and establishment of, ‘new applications of probability in fields such as medicine, meteorology, photography from satellites, marketing, earthquake prediction, human behavior, the design of computer systems, finance, genetics, and law. In many legal proceedings involving antitrust violations or employment discrimination, both sides will present probability and statistical calculations to help support their cases.2 Chapter | Introduction to Probability References ‘The ancient history of gambling and the origins of the mathematical theory of prob- ability are discussed by David (1988), Ore (1960), Stigler (1986), and Todhunter (1368), Some introductory books on probability theory, which discuss many of the same topics that willbe studied in this book, are Feller (1968); Hoel, Port, and Stone (1971); Meyer (1970); and Olkin, Gleser, and Derman (1980). Other introductory books. which discuss both probability theory and statistics at about the same level as they will be discussed in this book, are Brunk (1975); Devore (1999); Fraser (1976); Hoge and Tanis (1997); Kempthorne and Folks (1971); Larsen and Marx (2001); Larson (1974); Lindgren (1976); Miller and Miller (1999): Mood, Graybill, and Boes (1974); Rice (1995); and Wacketly, Mendenhall, and Schaetfer (2008). 1.2 Interpretations of Probability This section describes three common operational interpretations of probability. Although the interpretations may seem incompatible, itis fortunate thatthe ealeu: lus of probability (the subject matter of the fist six chapters of this book) applies ‘equally well no matter which interpretation one prefers In addition to the many formal applications of probability theory, the concept of probability enters our everyclay life and conversation, We often hear and use such expressions as “It probably will rain tomorrow afternoon,” “It is very likely that the plane will arrive late,” oF “The chances are good that he will be able to join us for dinner this evening.” Each of these expressions is based on the concept of the probability, or the likelihood, that some specific event will occur. Despite the fact that the concept of probability is such a common and natural part of our experience, no single scientific interpretation of the term probability is accepted by all statisticians, philosophers, and other authorities. Through the years, cach interpretation of probability that has been proposed by some authorities has been criticized by others. Indeed, the true meaning of probability is still a highly controversial subject and is involved in many current philosophical diseussions per- taining to the foundations of statistics. Three different interpretations of probability will be described here. Each of these interpretations can be very useful in applying probability theory to practical problems The Frequency Interpretation of Probability Jn many problems, the probability that some specific outcome of a process will be ‘obtained can be interpreted to mean the relative frequency with which that outcome ‘would be obtained ifthe process were repeated a large number of times under similar conditions. For example, the probability of obtaining a head when a coin is tossed is considered to be 1/2 because the relative frequency of heads should be approximately 1/2.wiaen the coin is tossed a large number of times under similar conditions. In other words, itis assumed that the proportion of tosses on which a head is obtained would, be approximately 1/2 ‘Ofcourse, the conditions mentioned in this example are too vague to serve as the basis fora scientific definition of probability. Fist, a “large number" of tosses of the coin is specified, but there is no definite indication of an actual number that would112 Interpretations of Probability 3 be considered large enough. Second, iti stated that the coin should be tossed each time “under similar conditions,” but these conditions are not described precisely. The conditions under which the coin is tossed must not be completely identical for each toss because the outcomes would then be the same, and there would be either all heads or all tails. In fact, a skilled person can toss a coin into the air repeatedly and, catch it in such a way that a head is obtained on almost every toss. Hence, the tosses ‘must not be completely controlled but must have some “random” features. Furthermore, iis stated that the relative frequency of heads should be “approx- imately 1/2,” but no limit is specified for the permissible variation from 1/2. fa coin were tossed 1,000,000 times, we would not expect to obtain exactly 500,000 heads. Indeed, we would be extremely surprised if we obtained exactly 500,000 heads. On. the other hand, neither would we expect the number of heads to be very far from 500,000, It would be desirable to be able to make a precise statement of the like- lihoods of the different possible numbers of heads, but these likelihoods would of necessity depend on the very concept of probability that we are trying to define. ‘Another shortcoming of the frequency interpretation of probability is that it applies only toa problem in which there can be, atleast in principle, a large number of similar repetitions ofa certain process. Many important problems are not of this type. For example, the frequency interpretation of probability cannot be applied directly, to the probability that a specific acquaintance will get married within the next two ‘years or to the probability that a particular medical research project will lead to the development of anew treatment fora certain disease within a specified period of time, The Classical Interpretation of Probability ‘The classical interpretation of probability is based on the concept of equally likely ‘outcomes. For example, when a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes: a head or a tail. ILit may be assumed that these outcomes are equally likely to occur, then they must have the same probability. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, bath the probability of a head and the probability of a tail must be 1/2. More generally, ifthe outcome of some process must be one of n different outcomes, and, if these n outcomes are equally likely to occur, then the probability of each outcome is In. Two basic difficulties arise when an attempt is made to develop a formal defi- nition of probability from the classical interpretation. First, the concept of equally likely outcomes is essentially based oa the concept of probability that we are trying to define. The statement that two possible outcomes are equally likely to occur is the ‘same as the statement that two outcomes have the same probability, Second, no sys- tematic method is given for assigning probabilities to outcomes that are not assumed to be equally ikely. When a coin is tossed, or a well-balanced die is rolled, or acardis chosen from a well-shutfled deck of cards, the different possible outcomes can usually. be regarded as equally likely because of the nature of the process. However, when the problem is to guess whether an acquaintance will get married or whether a research, project will be successful, the possible outcomes would not typically be considered. to be equally likely, and a different method is needed for assigning probabilities to these outcomes. The Subjective Interpretation of Probability According to the subjective, or personal, interpretation of probability, the probability that a person assigns to a possible outcome of some process represents her own4 Chapter | Introduction to Probability judgment of the likelihood that the outcome will be obtained, This judgment will be based on each person’s beliefs and information about the process. Another person, who may have different beliefs or different information, may assign a different probability to the same outcome, For this reason, it is appropriate to speak of a certain person's subjective probability of an outcome, rather than to speak of the ‘nue probability of that outcome. ‘As an illustration of this interpretation, suppose that a coin isto be tossed once. ‘A person with no special information about the coin or the way in which itis tossed. ‘might regard a head and a tail to be equally likely outcomes. That person would then assign a subjective probability of 1/2 to the possibility of obtaining a head, The person who is actually tossing the coin, however, might feel that a head is much. ‘mote likely to be obtained than a tail. In order that people in general may be able to assign subjective probabilities to the outcomes, they must express the strength of, their belief in numerical terms. Suppose, for example, that they regard the likelihood ‘of obtaining a head to be the same as the likelihood of obtaining a red card when one ccardis chosen from a well-shutfled deck containing four red cards and one black card, Because those people would assign a probability of 45 to the possibility of obtaining aed card, they should also assign a probability of 4/5 to the possiblity of obtaining ahead when the coin is tossed. This subjective interpretation of probability can be formalized. In general, if people's judgments of the relative likelihoods of various combinations of outcomes satisfy certain conditions of consistency, then it can be shown that their subjective probabilities of the different possible events can be uniquely determined. However, there are two difficulties with the subjective interpretation. First, the requirement that a person's judgments of the relative likelihoods of an infinite number of events be completely consistent and free from contradictions does not seem to be humanly attainable, unless a person is simply willing to adopt a collection of judgments known to be consistent. Second, the subjective interpretation provides no “objective” basis {for two or more scientists working together to reach a common evaluation of the state of knowledge in some scientific area of common interest On the other hand, recognition of the subjective interpretation of probability has the salutary effect of emphasizing some of the subjective aspects of science. A particular scientist's evaluation of the probability of some uncertain outcome must ‘ultimately be that person's own evaluation based on all the evidence available. This evaluation may well be based in part on the frequency interpretation of probability, since the scientist may take into account the relative frequency of occurrence of this ‘outcome ot similar outcomes in the past. It may also be based in past on the classical interpretation of probability, since the scientist may take into account the total num- ber of possible outcomes that are considered equally likely to occur. Nevertheless, the final assignment of numerical probabilities is the responsibility of the scientist herself The subjective nature of science is also revealed in the actual problem that a particular scientist chooses to study from the class of problems that might have been chosen, in the experiments that are selected in carrying out this study, and in the conclusions drawn from the experimental data, The mathematical theory of probability and statistics can play an important part in these choices, decisions, and, conclusions Note: The Thesry of Probability Does Not Depend on Interpretation. The math- ‘ematical theory of probability is developed and presented in Chapters 1-6 of this. ook without regard to the controversy surrounding the different interpretations ofDefinition 3.1 3 Experiments and Events $ the term probability. This theory is correct and can be usefully applied, regardless of which interpretation of probability is used in a particular problem. The theories and. techniques that will be presented in this book have served as valuable guides and tools in almost all aspects of the design and analysis of effective experimentation, 1.3. Experiments and Events Probability will be the way thal we quantify how likely something is to occur (in the sense of one of the interpretations in Sec. 1.2). In this ection, we give examples ofthe types of situations in which probability will be used. ‘Types of Experiments ‘The theory of probability pertains to the various possible outcomes that might be ‘obtained and the possible events that might occur when an experiment is performed, Experiment and Event. An experiment is any process, real or hypothetical, in which the possible outcomes can be identified ahead of time. An event is a well-defined set of possible outcomes of the experiment. ‘The breadth of this definition allows us to call almost any imaginable process an experiment whether or not its outcome will ever be known, The probability of each. ‘event will be our way of saying how likely itis that the outcome of the experiment is. in the event, Not every set of possible outcomes will be called an event. We shall be ‘more specific about which subsets count as events in Sec. 14 Probability will be most useful when applied to a zeal experiment in which the outcome is not known in advance, but there are many hypothetical experiments that provide useful tools for modeling real experiments. A common type of hypothetical ‘experiment is repeating a well-defined task infinitely often under similar conditions, ‘Some examples of experiments and specific events are given next. In each example, ‘the words following “the probability that” describe the event of interest. 1, Inanexperimentin which a coins to be tossed 10 times, the experimenter might ‘want to determine the probability that at least four heads will be obtained, 2. In an experiment in which a sample of 1000 transistors is to be selected from a large shipment of similar items and each selected item is to be inspected, person might want to determine the probability that not more than one of the selected transistors will be detective. 3. In an experiment in which the air temperature at a certain location is to be observed every day at noon for 90 successive days, a person might want to determine the probability that the average temperature during this period will be less than some specified value, 4, From information relating to the life of Thomas Jefferson, a person might want to determine the probability that Jefferson was born in the year 1741 5. In evaluating an industrial research and development project at a certain time, fa person might want to determine the probability that the project will result in the successful development of a new product within a specified number of months.‘ Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Definit 14d Beample The Mathematical Theory of Probability As was explained in Sec. 12, there is controversy in regard to the proper meaning and interpretation of some of the probabilities that are assigned to the outcomes ‘of many experiments, However, once probabilities have been assigned to some simple outcomes in an experiment, there is complete agreement among all authorities that the mathematical theory of probability provides the appropriate methodology {or the further study of these probabilities. Almost all work in the mathematical theory of probability, from the most elementary textbooks to the most advanced, research, has been related to the following two problems: (i) methods for determining the probabilities of certain events from the specified probabilities of each possible ‘outcome of an experiment and (ii) methods for revising the probabilities of events ‘when additional relevant information is obtained, These methods are based on standard mathematical techniques, The purpose of the first six chapters ofthis book is to present these techniques, which, together, form the mathematical theory of probability. 1.4. Set Theory This section develops the formal mathematical model for events, namely; the theory of sets, Several important concepts are introduced, namely, element, subset, empty set, intersection, union, complement, and disjoint ses. The Sample Space Sample Space. The collection of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space of the experiment. The sample space of an experiment can be thought of as a set, or collection, of different possible outcomes; and each outcome can be thought of as a point, of an element, in the sample space. Similarly, events can be thought of as subsets of the sample space. Rolling a Die. When a six-sided die is rolled, the sample space can be regarded as containing the six numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, each representing a possible side of the die that shows after the roll, Symbolically, we write 12,345, 6) One event A is that an even number is obtained, and it can be represented as the subset A= (2, 4, 6). The event B that a number gyeater than 2s obtained is defined by the subset B= (3, 4,5, 6} < Because we can interpret outcomes as elements of a set and events as subsets of a set, the language and concepts of set theory provide a natural context for the development of probability theory. The basic ideas and notation of set theory will now be reviewed14 SetTheory 7 Relations of Set Theory Let S denote the sample space of some experiment. Then each possible outcome ¢ ‘of the experiment is said to be a member of the space 5, or to belong to the space 5. The statement thats is a member of S is denoted symbolically by the relation «¢ S. When an experiment has been performed and we say that some event E has ‘occurred, we mean two equivalent things. One is that the outcome of the experiment satisfied the conditions that specified that event £., The other is that the outcome, considered as a point in the sample space, is an element of E To be precise, we should say which sets of outcomes correspond to events as de- fined above. In many applications, such as Example 1.4.1, it will be clear which sets of, ‘outcomes should correspond to events. In other applications (such as Example 1.4.5 coming up later), there are too many sets available to have them all be events. Ide- ally, we would like to have the largest possible collection of sets called events so that ‘we have the broadest possible applicability of our probability calculations, However, when the sample space is too large (as in Example 1.45) the theory of probability simply will not extend to the collection of all subsets of the sample space. We would. prefer not to dwell on this point for two reasons, First, a carcful handling requires mathematical details that interfere with an initial understanding of the important concepts, and second, the practical implications for the results in this text are min- imal. In order to be mathematically correct without imposing an undue burden on the reader, we note the following, In order to be able to do all ofthe probability cal- ccalations that we might find interesting, there are three simple conditions that must bbe met by the collection of sets that we call events. In every problem that we see in this text, there exists a collection of sets that includes all the sets that we will need to discuss and that satisfies the three conditions, and the reader should assume that such, a collection has been chosen as the events. For a sample space S with only finitely ‘many outcomes, the collection ofall subsets ofS satisfies the conditions, as the reader ‘can show in Exercise 12 in this section, The first of the three conditions can be stated immediately Condition ‘The sample space § must be an event. That is, we must include the sample space S in our collection of events. The other two conditions will appear later in this section because they require additional definitions. Condition 2 is on page 9, and Condition 3 is on page 10, Definition Containment, It is said that a set A is contained in another set B if every clement 1.4.2 ofthe set A also belongs to the set B. This relation between two events is expressed. symbolically by the expression A C B, which is the set-theoretic expression for saying. that A isa subset of B, Equivalently, if Ac B, we may say that B contains A andmay write BD A. For events, to say that A C B means that if A occurs then so does 2. The proof of the following result is straightforward and is omitted Let A, B, and C be events. Then AC S.IfAC Band BCA, then A=B.IACB and BCC, then ACC. . Rolling a Die. In Example 1.4.1, suppose that A is the event that an even number is obtained and C is the event that a number greater than 1 is obtained. Since A=(2,4,6)and C= (2, 3,4, 5, 6), it follows that ACC. <Chapter | Introduction to Probability Definition The Empty Set Some events are impossible, For example, when a die is rolled, it is impossible to obtain a negative number. Hence, the event that a negative number will be obtained is defined by the subset of $ that contains no outcomes. Empty Set, The subset of 5 thal contains no elements is called the empty set, or null set, and it is denoted by the symbol ¥. In terms of events, the empty set is any event that cannot occur, Let A be an event. Then fC feof Let A be an arbitrary event. Since the empty set J contains no points, itis logically corzect to say that every point belonging to ft also belongs to A, or BC A. Finite and Infinite Sets Some sets contain only finitely many elements, while others hhave infinitely many elements, There are two sizes of infinite sets that we need to distinguish, ‘Countable/Uncountable. An infinite set A is countable if there is on spondence between the elements of A and the set of natural numbers (1, 2,3, ...}.A set is uncountable if it is neither finite nor countable. If we say that a set has af most countably many elements, we mean that the set is either finite or countable, Examples of countably infinite sets include the integers, the even integers, the odd. integers, the prime numbers, and any infinite sequence. Each of these can be put in one-to-one correspondence with the natural numbers. For example, the following Tunetion f puts the integers in one-to-one correspondence with the natural numbers: 45! ifmis odd, -§ ifmiseven, Fon) Every infinite sequence of distinct items is a countable set, as its indexing puts it in ‘one-{o-one corresponclence with the natural numbers. Examples of uncountable sets include the real numbers, the positive reals, the numbers inthe interval [0, 1} and the set of all ordered pairs of real numbers, An argument to show that the real numbers. are uncountable appears at the end of this section, Every subset of the integers has at most countably many elements, Operations of Set Theory Complement. The complement of a set A is defined to be the set that contains all elements of the sample space 5 that do not belong to A. The notation for the complement of A is 4° In terms of events, the event A" is the event that A does not occur. Rolling Die, In Example 1.4.1, suppose again that A isthe event that an even number is rolled; then A® = (1,3, 5} is the event that an odd number is rolled. < ‘We can now state the second condition that we require of the collection of events,Figure 1.1 The event 4 Figure 1.2 The set aU. Condition ‘Theorem 14 SetTheory 9 COD IL Aisan event, then A®is also an event. ‘That is, for each set A of outcomes that we call an event, we must also cal its complement A an event, ‘A generic version of the relationship between A and A° is sketched in Fig. 11. A sketch of this type is called a Venn diagram. ‘Some properties of the complement are stated without proof in the next result. Let A be an event. Then, Co ‘The empty event fis an event. . Union of Two Sets. If A and B are any two sets, the union of A and B is defined to be the set containing all outcomes that belong to A alone, to B alone, or to both A and B. The notation for the union of A and B is AU B ‘The set A U Bis sketched in Fig. 1.2. In terms of events, AU B is the event that either Aor B or both occur. “The union has the following properties whose proofs are left to the reader. Forall sets A and B, AUB=BUA, AUAS=A, AUATSS, AUB=A, AUS=S. wrthermore, if A CB, then AU B= B. . The concept of union extends to more than two sets, Union of Many Sets. The union of n sets Ay, ..., Ay is defined to be the set that contains all outcomes that belong to at Ieast one of these n sets. The notation for this ‘union is either of the following:10 Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Condition ‘Theorem 146 Defini 148 Figure 1.3 The set ang. Similarly, the union ofan infinite sequence of sets Ay, Ay... isthe set that contains all outcomes that belong to atleast one of the events in the sequence. The infinite union is denoted by U®, 4) In terms of events, the union of a collection of events is the event that at least ‘one of the events in the collection occurs. We can now state the final condition that we require for the collection of sets that we call events. IE Ay, Az, is a countable collection of events, then LU, Ais also an event. In other words, if we choose to call each set of outcomes in some countable collection fan event, we are required to call their union an event also, We do not require that the union of an arbitrary collection of events be an event. To be clear, let / be an arbitrary set that we use to index a general collection of events (4, 1 € ). The union of the events in this collection is the set of outcomes that are in at least one of the ‘events in the collection. The notation for this union is U),., 4). We do not require that Ujey 4; be an event unless / is countable. Condition 3 refers to a countable collection of events, We can prove that the condition also applies to every finite collection of events ‘The union ofa finite number of events Ay, .... A, is an event. oof Forcach m=n-~+1,n-+2,.. define Ay, = 8 Because fis an event, we now hhave a countable collection Ay, Ay... of events, It follows from Condition 3 that US. Am isan event. But itis easy to 300 that Us Ay = US de . The union of three events A, B, and C can be constructed either directly from the definition of AU BUC or by fist evaluating the union of any two of the events and then forming the union of this combination of events and the third event. In other words, the following result is true. Associative Property. For every three events A, B, and C, the following associative relations are satisfied! AUBUC=(AUB)UC=AU (BUC). . Intersection of Two Sets. If A and B are any two sets, the intersection of A and B is defined to be the set that contains all outcomes that belong both fo A and to B. The notation for the intersection of A and Bis ANB. ‘The set A7 Bis sketched in a Venn diagram in Fig. 1.3. In terms of events, AN Bis the event that both A and B occur. The proof ofthe frst part of the next result follows from Exercise 3in this section, ‘The rest of the proof is straightforward CODTheorem 147 Definition 149 Figure 1.4 Partition of 5 determined by three events Ay. Aa Ay 14 Set Theory 11 IL A and B are events, then so is A B. For all events A and B. ANB=BNA, ANA=A, ANAS ANB=3, ANS=A, Furthermore, if A cB, then AN B= A . The concept of intersection extends to more than two sets, Intersection of Many Sets. The intersection of m sets Aj, ..., Ay is defined to be the set that contains the elements that are common to all these n sets, The notation for this intersection is Ay 7A, 71... Ay oF [Yfy Av. Similar notations are used for the intersection of an infinite sequence of sets or for the intersection of an arbitrary collection of sets. Interms of events, the intersection of a collection of eventsis the event that every ‘event in the collection occurs. The following result concerning the intersection of three events is straightfor- ward to prove. Associative Property. For every three events A, B, and C, the following associative relations are satisfied ANBNC=(ANB)NC=AN (BNO). . DisjointiMutually Exclusive, It is said that two sets A and B are disjoint, or mutually exclusive, if A and B have no outcomes in common, that is, if A”) B =, The sets Ay, Ay oF the sets Ay, Ay, .. are disjoint if for every i 4 j, we have that A, and A, are disjoint, thatis, A, A) =i for all # j. The events in an arbitrary collection ate disjoint if no two events in the collection have any outcomes in common, In terms of events, A and B are disjoint if they cannot both occur, As an illustration of these concepts, a Venn diagram for three events Ay, A, and Ay is presented in Fig. 1.4. This diagram indicates that the various intersections of Ay, Aa, and Ay and their complements will partition the sample space $ into eight disjoint subsets,12 Chapter 1 Introduetion to Probability Example Lad Example 145 Figure 1.5 Sample space for water and electric demand in Example 14.5 ‘Tossing a Coin, Suppose that a coin is tossed three times. Then the sample space 5 contains the following eight possible outcomes s,s 4: HEE, sy THE, a: HTH, ay HET sy HIT, sg THT. a TTH, ay: TIT In this notation, H indicates a head and T indicates a tail. The outcome s, for ‘example, isthe outcome in which a head is obtained on the first toss, a tai is obtained ‘on the second toss, and a head is obtained on the third toss. To apply the concepts introduced in this section, we shall define four events as follows: Let A be the event that at least onc head is obtained in the three tosses; let B be the event that a head is obtained on the second toss; let C be the event that a tail is obtained on the third toss and let D be the event that no heads are obtained, ‘Accordingly, A= (51 52. 55.54, 55.56.57} Balsus C= 64, 55,55, 58) D=(s) Various relations among these events can be derived, Some of these relations are BCA, AS =D, BND =H, AUC=S, BOC ={s4, 56h, (BUCY = (5s, 59}, and AM (BUC) = (0 fn 54 55,53) < 54 56 Demands for Utilities. A contractor is building an office complex and needs to plan for water and electricity demand (sizes of pipes, conduit, and wites). After consulting ‘with prospective tenants and examining historical data, the contractor decides that the demand for electricity will range somewhere between I million and 150 million kilowatt-hours per day and water demand will be between 4 and 200 (in thousands ‘of gallons per day), All combinations of electrical and water demand are considered, possible. The shaded region in Fig. 15 shows the sample space for the experiment, consisting of learning the actual water and electricity demands for the office complex. ‘We can express the sample space as the set of ordered pairs {(x, y) :4 1, a,(x) = [106,02] and b, (2) = 10b, (x) ~ a,x). This easy to see that the sequence (a,(x)}®2, gives m. The numbers of the form k/10" are the only ones that have an alternate decimal expansion x = P%2 ¢,(2)10-" When é is not a multiple of 10, this alternate expansion satisfies ¢,(1) = a,(x) for nal... m=Leq(2) aq (2) — 1, and 6,(x) =9 for n > m.Let C= (0, 1... 9) stand for the set of all infinite sequences of digits, Let B denote the subset of C consisting of those sequences that don't end in repeating 9's. Then we have just constructed a function a from the interval [0, 1) onto B that is one-to-one and whose inverse is given in (1.4.1). We now show that the set B is uncountable, hence (0, 1) is uncountable. Take any countable subset of B and arrange the sequences into a rectangular array with the kth sequence running across the kth row of the array for k=1,2,.... Figure 17 gives an example of part of such an array. In Fig. 17, we have underlined the Ath digit in the kth sequence for each k. This, portion ofthe array is called the diagonal of the array. We now show that there must ‘exist a sequence in B that is not part of this array. This will prove that the whole set B cannot be put into such an array, and hence cannot be countable. Construct the sequence (d,)®°, as follows. For each n, let d, = 2 if the nth digit in the nth sequence is 1, and d, =I otherwise. This sequence does not end in repeating 9's; hence, itis in B. We conclude the proof by showing that (d,)° does not appear anywhere in the array, If the sequence did appear in the array, say, in the Ath row, then its kth element would be the kth diagonal element of the array. But we constructed the sequence so that for every n (including n = &), its nth element never matched the nth diagonal clement. Hence, the sequence can't be in the kth row, no matter what ‘eis. The argument given here is essentially that of the nineteenth-century German mathematician Georg Cantor.Summary La Set Theory 15 ‘We will use set theory for the mathematical model of events. Outcomes of an exper- iment are elements of some sample space 5, and each event is a subset of 8, Two. ‘events both occur ifthe outcome is in the intersection of the two sets. At least one of, collection of events occurs ifthe outcome isin the union of the sets. TWo events ca not both occur if the sets are disjoint. An event fails to oceur if the outcome isin the complement of the set. The empty set stands for every event that cannot possibly oc~ cur. The collection of events is assumed to contain the sample space, the complement ofeach event, and the union of each countable collection of events. Exercises 1. Suppose that A © B, Show that BC A* 2, Prove the distributive properties in Theorem 1.4.10. 3, Prove De Morgan's laws (Theorem 1.49). 4. Prove Theorem 1.4.11 S. For every collection of events A, (i € 1), show that (us)-9e = (Qs)/-us a ANBNC a An@uC banc « AUBUC a aad 7. Suppose that a number xis tobe selected from the real line S, andlet A, 8, and Cbe the events represented by the following subsets ofS, where the notation {x:---} denotes the set containing every point x for which the property presented following the colon is satisied Az(elexs5) Ba(e3 B, >and that €,¢ ¢;¢ b. Show tht an outcome in 5 belongs to the event Fy Bytandonlyifit belongs toan nine number Ori deen ay A ¢. Show that an outcome in 5 belogs to the event Ce ca and only ft belongs teal he evens Ar Ags except possibly inte numberof tose create 10, Tee sivsided dice are rolled. The sx ses ofeach {is ae numbered 1-6, LetA be the even tha he fst tic shows an even amber, et he the event thatthe Secon aie shows am even umber and ev € be the event iter the turd te shows an oten amber Abo, foreach pes ve.leta be the event tha the et die hows the umber It be the even tha the second ie thows the number [angle C be the event tht the tid de shows the number Expeesseach of the following evens Inveis ofthe eamed events deseribed above The event that al thee die show even aumbers by ‘The event that no de shows an even number The event thataleat one die shows a odd number aL The event that at most two di f. Theevent thatthe sum ofthe thee desis greater hans show odd numbers 11. A power cell consists of two subcells, each of which can provide from 0 to 5 volts, regardless of what the other16 Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability subeell provides. The power cell is functional if and only if the sum of the (wo voltages of the subcels is at least 6 volts, An experiment consists of measuring and recording the voltages of the two subcells. Let A be the event that the power cel is functional, let B be the event that two subvells have the same voltage, let C be the event that the first subcell has a strictly higher voltage than the second subeell, and let D be the event that the power cell ie rot functional but needs less than one additional volt to become functional, a. Define a sample space 5 for the experiment as a set of ordered pairs that makes it possible for you to express the four sets above as events b. Express cach of the events A, B, C, and D as sets of ordered pairs that are subsets of 5. Express the following set in terms of 4, B, C, andlor Dill, Y)ix=yandx + y <3) 4. Express the following event in terms of A, B, C, andior D: the event that the power cell is not fune= tional and the second subeell has a strictly higher voltage than the first subcel 12, Suppose that the sample space 5 of some experiment is nite. Show thatthe collection of allsubsets of Ssatisies the three conditions required to be called the collection of 13, Let Sbe the sample space for some experiment. Show that the collection of subsets consisting solely of § and @ saisties the three conditions required in order to be called the collection of events. Explain why this collection would not be very interesting in most real problems, 114, Suppose that the sample space 5 of some experiment is countable, Suppose also that, for every outcome s € S, the subset (s) is an event. Show that every subset of $ must bbe an event. Hint: Recall the three conditions required of the collection of subsets of S that we call events 1.5 The Definition of Probability We begin with the mathematical definition of probability and then present some ‘useful results that follow easily from the definition. Axioms and Basic Theorems In this section, we shall present the mathematical, or axiomatic, definition of proba- bility. In a given experiment, it is necescary to assign to each event A in the sample space § a number Pr(A) that indicates the probability that A will occur. In order to satisfy the mathematical definition of probability, the number Pr(A) that is assigned ‘must satisfy three specific axioms. These axioms ensure that the number Pr(A) will have certain properties t at we intuitively expect a probability to have under each ‘of the various interpretations described in Sec. 1.2. The first axiom states that the probability of every event must be nonnegative. The second axiom states that if an event is certain to occur, then the probability Axiom For every event A, Pr(A) > 0, ' ofthat event is Axiom Pr(S)=1. 2 Before stating Axiom 3, we shall discuss the probabilities of disjoint events. Iftwo ‘events are disjoint, itis natural to assume that the probability that one or the other will occur is the sum of their individual probabilities. Infact, it will be assumed that this additive property of probability is also true for every finite collection of disjoint ‘events and even for every infinite sequence of disjoint events. If we assume that this additive property is true only fora finite number of disjoint events, we cannot then be certain that the property will be true for an infinite sequence of disjoint events as well However, if we assume that the additive property is true for every infinite sequenceAxiom Example Brample 132 Defini ‘Theorem 132 15 The Definition of Probability 17 of disjoint events, then (as we shall prove) the property must also be true for every finite number of disjoint events, These considerations lead to the third axiom, For every infinite sequence of disjoint events Ay, A (OU 4) = Sra Rolling a Die. In Example 1.4.1, for each subset A of 5 ={1, 2,3, 4,5, 6}, let Pr(A) be the number of elements of A divided by 6, Iti trivial to see that this satisfies the frst two axioms. There are only finitely many distinct collections of nonempty disjoint ‘events. It is not difficult to see that Axiom 3 is also satisfied by this example. ALoaded Die. In Example 1.51, there are other choices for the probabilities ofevents, For example, if we believe that the dic is loaded, we might believe that some sides have different probabilities of turning up. To be specific, suppose that we believe that, Gis twice as likely to come up as each of the ather five sides. We could set pj = 1/7 for i =1,2,3,4,5 and pj =2/7. Then, for each event A, define Pr(A) to be the sum of all p, such that i € A. For example, if A = (1, 3, 5), then Pr(A) = p, + ps + ps=3/T. is not difficult to check that this also satisfies all three axioms. < We are now prepared to give the mathematical definition of probability Probability. A probability measure, or simply a probability, on a sample space $ is a specification of numbers Pr(A) for all events A that satisfy Axioms 1, 2, and 3. We shall now derive two important consequences of Axiom 3, First, we shall show that if an event is impossible, its probability must be 0 Pr@) oof Consider the infinite sequence of events Ay, Az, .. such that A, = for 2, ... Ta other words, each of the events in the sequence is just the empty set {Then this sequence is a sequence of disjoint events, since #7 # = d. Furthermore, Us; 4: =#. Therefore, it follows from Axiom 3 that oun=n({)s) -Somay- $m ‘This equation states that when the number Pr(@) is added repeatedly in an infinite series, the sum of that series is simply the number Pr((). The only real number with, this property is zero, . ‘We can now show that the additive property assumed in Axiom 3 for an infinite sequence of disjoint events is also true for every finite number of disjoint events o(Ua)-Sma feof Consider the infinite sequence of events Ay, A2,..., in which Ay, ..., Ay are the n given disjoint events and A, = for # > n, Then the events in this infinite18 Chapter 1 Introduetion to Probability ‘Theorem ‘Theorem 14 Figure 8 #=au@nay inthe proof of Theorem 15.4 sequence are disjoint and Us, A; = Us. 4). Therefore, by Axiom 3, n(s)-nOs)-Ens Yay + YS Paap = Dray +0 =doPHay. . Further Properties of Probability From the axioms and theorems just given, we shall now derive four other general properties of probability measures. Because of the fundamental nature of these four properties, they will be presented in the form of four theorems, each one of which is easily proved For every event A, Pr(A‘) = 1 — Pr(Aa), oof Since A and A' are disjoint events and AU A® =, it follows from Theo- rem 1.5.2 that Pr(S) =Pr(A) 4 Pr(A‘). Since Pr(S) = 1 by Axiom 2, then Pr(A®) 1-Pr(a), . WAC B, then Prt) < Pr(B). oof As illustrated in Fig. 1.8, the event B may be treated as the union of the two disjoint events A and BA‘. Therefore, Pr(B) =Pr(A) + Pr(B 1 A‘). Since Pr(B 1A) > 0, then Pr(B) > Pra). . For every event A, 0< Pr(A) <1. feof It is known from Axiom 1 that Pr(A) > 0. Since A.C S for every event A. ‘Theorem 1.5.4 implies Pr(A) = Pr(S) = 1, by Axiom 2. . For every two events A and B, PAN B= Pr(A) — Pr(AN 8).‘Theorem 13.7 Beample 133 Example Ls4 15 The Definition of Probability 19 feof According to Theorem 1.4.11, the events AN B° and A B are disjoint and AS(ANB)U(AN BS. It follows from Theorem 1.5.2 that Pr(A) = PHAN B) +Pr(AN BS, Subtract Pr(A.9 B) from both sides of this last equation to complete the proof, For every two events A and B, PrRAUB) Pr(A) + Pr(B) — Pr(An 8). say feof From Theorem 1.4.11, we have AUB=BU(ANBS, and the two events on the tight side of this equation are disjoint. Hence, we have Pri UB) = Pr(B) +PriAn B) =Pr(B) + Pr(A)— PHAN B), where the first equation follows from Theorem 1.5.2, and the second follows from ‘Theorem 1.5.6, . Diagnosing Diseases. AA patient arrives at a doctor's office with a sore throat and low- grade fever. After an exam, the doctor decides that the patient has either a bacterial infection or a viral infection or both, The doctor decides that there is a probability of 0.7 that the patient has a bacterial infection and a probability of 04 that the person. ‘has a viral infection. What is the probability that the patient has both infections? Let B be the event that the patient has a bacterial infection, and let V be the ‘event that the patient has a viral infection, We are told Pr(#) = 0.7, that Pr(V) =0.4, and that § = BU V. We are asked to find Pr(B 1 V). We will use Theorem 1.5.7, which says that PrBUV) =Pr(B) + Pr(V) ~ PBN) (say Since $= BUY, the left-hand side of (1.5.2) is 1, while the frst two terms on the right-hand side are 0.7 and 0.4, The result is 1=07+04—Pr(B OY), which leads to Pr(B 1 V) = 0.1, the probability that the patient has both infections, < Demands for Utilities. Consider, once again, the contractor who needs to plan for water and electricity demands in Example 145. There are many possible choices for how to spread the probability around the sample space (pictured in Fig 1.5 on page 12). One simple choice is to make the probability of an event E proportional to the area of E. The area of $ (Uhe sample space) is (150 — 1) x (200 ~ 4) =29,204, so Pr(E) equals the area of E divided by 29.204. For example, suppose that the ‘contractor is interested in high demand, Let A be the set where water demand is at least 100, andl let B be the event that electric demand is at least 115, and suppose that these values are considered high demand. These events are shaded with different patterns in Fig, 19, The area of A is (150— 1) x (200 — 100) = 14,900, and the area20. Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Figure 1.9 The wo events of interest in utility demand sample space for Exam- ple 154 6,860 29,204 The two events intersect in the region denoted by A.” B. The area of this region is (150 — 115) x (200 — 100) = 3,500, so Pr(4 7 B) = 3,500/29,204 = 0.1198. If the contractor wishes to compute the probability that at least one of the two demands will be high, that probability is Pr(AU B) = Pr(A) 4 Pr(B) — Pr(A7 B) =0.5102 + 0.2349 — 0.1198 = 0.6253, Pr(B) 0.2349 oo(Ua) 0, the event (water demand is between x — ¢ and x +€) «will have positive probability, but that probability will go to O as € goes 100. Summary ‘We have presented the mathematical definition of probability through the three axioms. The axioms require that every event have nonnegative probability, that the ‘whole sample space have probability 1, and that the union of an infinite sequence of disjoint events have probability equal to the sum of their probabilities. Some important results to remember include the following:+ Ay + Pra) =1-PK(A) 15 The Definition of Probability 21 ‘Ag are disjoint, Pr (Ut ,A,) = DE Prt). + ACB implies that Pr(A) < Pr(B), + Pr(A UB) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) ~ Pr(A 1B), It does not matter how the probabilities were determined. As long as they satisfy the three axioms, they must also satisfy the above relations as well as all of the results that we prove later in the text, Exercises 1. One ball isto be selected from a box containing red, ‘white, blue, yellow, and green balls Ifthe probability that the sclected ball will be red is 1/5 and the probability that it will be white is 2/5, what is the probability that it will be blue, yellow, or green? 2. A student selected from a class willbe either a boy or a itl. Ifthe probability that a boy will be selected is 03, What isthe probability that a girl will be selected? 3, Consider two events A and B such that Pr(A) = 1/3 and Pr(2) = 1/2. Determine the value of Pr(# A®) for each ofthe following conditions: (a) A and B are disjoint, () ACB (PHAN B)= 1/8, 4. Ifthe probability that student A will fail certain statis- tics examination is 0.5 the probability that student B wil, fail the examination is 0.2, and the probability that both student A and student # will fail the examination is 0.1, ‘what is the probability that at least one of these two si dents wil al the examination? 5. For the conditions of Exercise 4, whats the probability that neither student A nor student # will fail the examina- tion? 6. For the conditions of Exercise 4, what is the probability that exactly one of the two students will fail the examiina- tion? 7. Consider two events A and B with Pr(A) = 04 and Pr(B) =0.7. Determine the maximum and minimum pos- sible values of Pr(A/" B) and the conditions under which each of these values is attained, 8, 150 percent of the families ina certain city subscribe to the morning newspaper, 65 percent of the families sub- scribe fo the afternoon newspaper, and 85 percent of the amilies subseribe to at least one of the two newspapers, What percentage of the families subscribe to both newspa- pers? 9, Prove that forevery two events A and B, the probability that exactly one ofthe two events will occurs given by the expression Pr(A) + Pr) —2Pr(A NB). 10, For two asbitrary events A and B, prove that Pr(A) =Pr(AOB) + PHAN BY, AL A point (x, ») is to be selected from the squate S Containing all points (x,y) such that n, iL is impossible for all the selected balls to have different numbers be- cause there are only n diferent numbers, Suppose, therefore, that k ce Stirling's Formula ‘Theorem Example Lniz 1.7 Counting Methods 31 The calculation in this example illustrates a common technique for solving prob- ability problems. If one wishes to compute the probability of some event A, it might be more straightforward to calculate Pr(A') and then use the fact that Pr(A) = 1 — Pr(A‘). This idea is particularly useful when the event A is of the form “at least things happen” where n is small compared to how many things could happen. For large values of n, it is nearly impossible to compute n!, For n = 70, n! > 101% and cannot be represented on many scientific calculators. In most cases for which nis needed with a large value of n, one only needs the ratio of n! to another large number a,. A common example of this is P, » with large n and not so large k, which ‘equals n!/(n ~ &)!. In such cases, we can notice that Compared to computing m|, it takes a much larger n before log(n!) becomes difficult to represent, Furthermore, if we had a simple approximation s, to log(n’) such that lim, tp — log(n}}| =O, then the ratio of n/a, 10 4,/a, would be close to 1 for large 1. The following result, whose proof can be found in Feller (1968), provides such an approximation, sidings om, Lt Lapa) + (02) i) i, —Ing = 0. Pa ante 23, lig C2 a1 . ‘Then lim, ‘Approximating the Numberof Permutations. Suppose that we want to compute Pie 29 = 701/50). The approximation from Stirling's formula is 70! _ @ny¥240795_—70 Ga) P70 = 3.940 x 10, 501 Ba P50 e- ‘The exact calculation yields 3.938 x 105. The approximation and the exact calcula- tion differ by less than 1/10 of 1 percent. < % Summary ‘Suppose that the following conditions are met: + Bach element of a set consists of k distinguishable parts x3... Xe + There are m; possibilities for the frst part x eachi =2, ..., kandeach combination (x, there are n, possibilities for the it part x, jai) ofthe firsti — parts, ‘Under these conditions, there are m ng elements of the set. The third condition requires only that the number of possibilities for x, be n, no matter what the earlier32 Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability parts are. For example, for i =2, it does nor require that the same n, possibilities be available for x, regardless of what x, is, It only requires that the number of possibilities for x, be my no matter what x; is In this way, the general rule includes the ‘multiplication rule, the calculation of permutations, and sampling with replacement as special cases, For permutations of m items k at a time, we have nj =m —i + 1 for i=1...., k,and the n, possibilities for part / are just the n, items that have not yet appeared in the frst i — 1 parts, For sampling with replacement from m items, we have n, =m for all, and the m possibilities are the same for every part. In the next, section, we shall consider how to count elements of sets in which the parts of each ‘element are not distinguishable, Exercises L. Bach year starts on one of the seven days (Sunday through Saturday). Each year is either a leap y it includes February 29) or not. How many different cal- endats are possible for a year? 2, Thee different classes contain 20, 18, and 25 students, respectively, and no student is amember of more than one lass Ifa teamis tobe composed of one student from each of these three classes, im how many different ways can the ‘members of the team be chosen? 3, In how many different ways can the five leters a,b. € dd, and e be arranged? 4. Ifa man has six different sportshirts and four different Pairs of slacks, how many different combinations ean he 5. Iffour dice are rolled, what is the probability that each, of the four numbers that appear will be different? 6. If six dice are rolled, what isthe probability that each of the six diferent numbers will appear exactly once? 7. 16 12 balls are thrown at random into 20 boxes, what is the probability that no box will receive more than one ball? 8. An elevator in a building starts with five passengers land stops at seven floors. If every passenger is equally likely to get off at each floor and all the passengers leave independently of each other, what is the probability that no two passengers will get off at the same floor? 9, Suppose that three runners from team A and three run- ners from team B participate in a race. Ifa six runners hhave equal ability and there are no ties, what is the prob- ability thatthe three runners from team A wil finish fist, second, and third, and the three runners from team B will finish fourth, fifth, and sixth? 40, A box contains 100 balls, of which r are red. Suppose ‘that the balls are drawn from the box one ata time, atran- dom, without replacement, Determine (a) the probability that the first all drawn will be red; (b) the probability that the S0th ball drawn will be red; and (@) the probability that the last ball drawn will be red. AL, Let m and k be positive integers such that both m and n—K are large. Use Stiling’s formula to write as simple ‘an approximation as you can for P, 1.8 Combinatorial Methods Many problems of counting the number of outcomes in an event amount to counting how many subsets ofacertain size are contained ina fixed set. This section sives examples of how to do such counting and where it can arise, Combinations Beample ay all of the subsets of size two: {a,b}, fae}, Choosing Subsets. Consider the set (a, b, ¢, d} containing the four different letters, ‘We want to count the number of distinct subsets of size two. In this case, we can lst fad), (be), (bd), and {e,18 Combinatorial Methods 33 ‘We see that there are six distinct subsets of size two. This is different from counting permutaions because fa, b} and (b, a) are the same subset. < For large sets, it would be tedious, if not impossible, to enumerate all of the subsets of a given size and count them as we did in Example 1.8.1. However, there is a connection between counting subsets and counting permutations that will allow us to derive the general formula for the number of subsets. Suppose that there is a set of n distinct elements from which itis desired to choose a subset containing & elements (1 < k < n). We shall determine the number of different subsets that can be chosen, In this problem, the arrangement of the elements in a subset is irelevant and each subset is treated as a unit Combinations. Consider a set with n elements, Fach subset of size & chosen from this set is called a combination of n elements taken k ata time. We denote the number of distinct such combinations by the symbol C,,. No two combinations will consist of exactly the same elements because two subsets with the same elements are the same subset ‘At the end of Example 18.1, we noted that two different permutations (a, b) and (b, a) both correspond to the same combination or subset {a, b). We can think of permutations as being constructed in two steps, Fist, a combination of & elements is ‘chosen out of n, and second, those k elements are arranged in a specific order. There are C,, « Ways to choose the k elements out of n, and for each such choice there are Kiways to arrange those k elements in different orders. Using the multiplication rule from Sec. 1.7, we see that the number of permutations of elements taken k ata time is Pye =C,,xkt: hence, we have the following ‘Theorem Combinations. The number of distinct subsets of size k that can be chosen from a set el ofsizenis Pax nl Cue = Hb! In Example 1.8.1, we see that C, =41/[22!]=6. Example Selecting a Committee. Suppose that a committee composed of eight people is to be 1.8.2 selected from a group of 20 people. The number of different groups of people that might be on the committee is na= 2% = 125.970 « suai Choosing Jobs. Suppose that, in Example 1.8.2, the eight people in the committee ‘each get a different job to perform on the committee, The number of ways to choose ‘ight people out of 20 and assign them to the eight different jobs is the number of permutations of 20 elements taken eight at atime, or Pag g= Can % 8! = 125,970 x 81= 5,078, 110,400, < Examples 1.8.2 and 1.83 illustrate the difference and relationship between com- binations and permutations. In Example 1.8.3, we count the same group of people in a different order as a different outcome, while in Example 1.8.2, we count the same group in different orders as the same outcome. The two numerical values differ by a factor of, the number of ways to reorder each of the combinations in Example 1.8.2 to get a permutation in Example 1.8.3.M (Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Definit 12 Theorem 182 Binomial Coefficients Binomial Coefficients. The number C,, is also denoted by the symbol (f)-"Thatis, for k=0,1,...,0, ()- mam aay ‘When this notation is used, this number is called a binomial coefficient The name binomial coefficient derives from the appearance of the symbol in the binomial theorem, whose proof is left as Exercise 20 in this section, Binomial Theorem. For all numbers x and y and each positive integer @tyt= x (thom . ‘There are a couple of useful relations between binomial coefficients. For all n, For all n and all k=0,1,....7 ()-G2) feof The first equation follows from the fact that 0!= 1, The second equation follows from Eq, (1.8.1). The second equation can also be derived from the fact that selecting k elements to form a subset is equivalent to selecting the remaining n ~ k ‘elements to form the complement of the subset. . Tes sometimes convenient to ute the expression “n choose &” forthe value of ya: Thus, the same quantity is represented by the wo different notations C,,, and ()- and we may reser to this quantity in three different ways: as the number of chmbinations of m elements taken & ata time, as the binomial coeticient of n and or simply a8 “n choose k” Blood Types. In Example 1.6.4 on page 23, we defined genes, alleles, and genotypes. ‘The gene for human blood type consists of a pair of alleles chosen from the three alleles commonly called O, A, and B. For example, two possible combinations of alleles (called genotypes) to form a blood-type gene would be BB and AO. We will not distinguish the same two alleles in different orders, so OA represents the same genotype as AO, How many genotypes are there for blood type? The answer could easily be found by counting, but itis an example of a more general calculation. Suppose that a gene consists of a pair chosen [rom a set of nn different alleles. Assuming that we cannot distinguish the same pair in different orders, there are n pats where both alleles are the same, and there are (3) pairs where the two alleles are different. The total number of genotypes is s(n BBS ab (2)8 Combinatorial Methods 35 For the case of blood type, we have n = 3,0 there are () 4x34 2) 3 ‘genotypes, as could easily be verified by counting. < Note: Sampling with Replacement. The counting method described in Exam- ple 1.84 is a type of sampling with replacement that is different ftom the type described in Example 1.7.10, In Example 1.7.10, we sampled with replacement, but ‘we distinguished between samples having the same balls in different orders. This could be called ordered sampling with replacement. In Example 1.8.4, samples con- taining the same genes in different orders were considered the same outcome. This could be called unordered sampling with replacement. The general formula for the number of unordered samples of size with replacement from n elements is ("*!1), and can be derived in Exercise 19. Itis possible to have k larger than n when sampling with replacement Selecting Baked Goods. You go to a bakery to select some baked goods for a dinner party, You need to choose a total of 12 items. The baker has seven different types of items from which to choose, with lots of each type available. How many different boxfuls of 12 items are possible for you to choose? Here we will not distinguish the same collection of 12 items arranged in different orders in the box. This is an example ‘of unordered sampling with replacement because we can (indeed we must) choose the same type of item more than once, but we are not distinguishing the same items in different orders. There are (7* 12-1) = 18,564 different boxfuls. < Example 1.8.5 raises an issue that can cause confusion if one does not carefully determine the elements of the sample space and carefully specify which outcomes Gf any) are equally likely. The next example illustrates the issue in the context of Example 185. Selecting Baked Goods. Imagine two different ways of choosing a boxful of 12 baked {goods selected from the seven different types available. In the first method, you choose one item at random from the seven available. Then, without regard to what itemwas chosen first, you choose the second item at random from the seven available. ‘Then you continue in this way choosing the next item at random from the seven available without regard to what has already been chosen until you have chosen 12. For this method of choosing, itis natural to let the outcomes be the possible sequences of the 12 types of items chosen. The sample space would contain 7!2 = 1.38 x 10! ifferent outcomes that would be equally likely Tn the second method of choosing, the baker tells you that she has available 18,564 different boxfuls freshly packed. You then select one at ranclom. In this case, the sample space would consist of 18,564 different equally ikely outcomes. In spite ofthe different sample spaces that arise inthe two methods of choosing, there are some verbal descriptions that identify an event in both sample spaces. For ‘example, both sample spaces contain an event that could be described as (all 12 items are of the same type} even though the outcomes are different types of mathematical objects in the two sample spaces. The probability that all 12 items are of the same type will actually be different depending on which method you use to choose the boxful Tn the first method, seven of the 7! equally likely outcomes contain 12 of the same type of item, Hence, the probability that all 12 items are of the same type is36 ‘Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Example 187 7/722 = 5.06 x 10-, In the second method, there are seven equally liklely boxes that contain 12 of the same type of item. Hence, the probability that all 12 items are of the same type is 7/18,564 = 3.77 x 10. Before one can compute the probability for an event such as {all 12 items are of the same type}, one must be careful about defining the experiment and its outcomes. < Arrangements of Elements of Two Distinet Types When a set contains only el- ements of two distinct types, a binomial coefficient can be used to represent the ‘number of different arrangements of all the elements in the set. Suppose, for ex- ample, that & similar red balls and n ~ k similar green balls are to be arranged in a tow. Since the red bals will occupy & positions in the row, each different arrangement ‘of then balls corresponds toa different choice of the k positions occupied by the red balls. Hence, the number of different arrangements of the n balls will be equal to the number of different ways in which & positions can be selected for the red balls from the » available positions. Since this number of ways is specified by the bino- rial coefficient ("), the number of different arrangements of the n balls is also (3) In other words, the number of different arrangements of n objects consisting of similar objects of one type and n ~ k similar objects of a second type is () Tossing a Coin. Suppose that a fair coin is to be tossed 10 times, and it is desired to determine (a) the probability p of obtaining exactly three heads and (b) the probability p’ of obtaining three or fewer heads. (a) The total possible number of different sequences of 10 heads and tails is 2° and it may be assumed that each of these sequences is equally probable. The number of these sequences that contain exactly three heads will be equal to the number of different arrangements that can be formed with three heads and seven tails, Here are some of those arrangements: HHHTTTTTTT, HETHTTTTTT, HHTTHTITIT, TTHTHTHTTT, ete. Bach such arrangement is equivalent toa choice of where to put the 3 heads among the 10 tosses, so there are (9) such atrangements. The probability of oblaining exactly three heads is then 0 G) 73 = 0.172, (©) Using the same reasoning a in part (a), the numberof sequences in the sample space that contain exactly & heads (k =0, 1,2 3s (2). Hence, the probability of obtaining thee or fewer heads is CCDC) Jets $4100 _ 8 ony < Note: Using Two Different Methods in the Same Problem. Part (a) of Exam- ple 1.87 is another example of using two different counting methods in the same problem. Part (b) illustrates another general technique. In this part, we broke the ‘event of interest into several disjoint subsets and counted the numbers of outcomes separately for each subset and then added the counts together to get the total. In ‘many problems, it can require several applications of the same or different countingExample 189 18 Combinatorial Methods 37 methods in order to count the aumber of outcomes in an event. The next example is ‘one in which the elements of an event are formed in two parts (multiplication rule), but we need to perform separate combination calculations to determine the numbers ‘of outcomes for each part. Sampling without Replacement, Suppose that class contains 15 boys and 30 girls, and that 10 stadents are to be selected at random fora special assignment. We shall ‘etermine the probability p that exactly three boys will be selected The number of different combinations ofthe 45 students that might be obtained in the sample of 10studentsis(!), andthe statement that the 10 students are selected at random means that each of these (j3) possible combinations is equally probable. ‘Therefore, we must find the numberof these combinations that contain exactly three boys and seven girl ‘When a combination of three boys and seven girls is formed, the number of siterent combinations in which three boys canbe selected from the 15 available boys is ('9), and the number of different combinations in which seven girls can be selected. from the 30 available girls is (°). Since each of these combinations of three boys can be paired with each ofthe combinations of seven girs to form a distinct sample, the number of combinations containing exactly thrce boys is (3) °%). Therefore, the desired probability is 15) (30 GG) zis ) Playing Cards. Suppose that a deck of 52 cards containing four aces is shuifled thor- ‘oughly and the cards are then distributed among four players so that each player recoives 13 cards. We shall determine the probability that each player will receive The number of possible different combinations of the four positions inthe deck ‘occupied by the four aces is (2), and it may be assumed that each of these (°2) combinations is equally probable. Tf each player isto receive one ace, then there rust be exactly one ace among the 13 cards thatthe frst player will receive and one ace among each ofthe remaining tree groups of 13 cards tha the other thee players will receive In other words, there are 13 posible positions for the ace thatthe fst player isto receive, 13 other possible postions forthe ace that the second players to receive, and so on, Therefore, among the (*7) possible combinations of the positions for the four aces, exactly 13 of these combinations will lead to the desired result Hence, the probability p that each player will receive one ace is = 0.2904. < 13st = 0.1055, < Ordered versus Unordered Samples Several of the examples in this section and the previous section involved counting the numbers of possible samples that could arise using various sampling schemes. Sometimes we treated the same collection of ‘elements in different orders as different samples, and sometimes we treated the same ‘elements in different orders as the same sample. In general, how can one tell which, is the correct way to count in a given problem? Sometimes, the problem description ‘will make it clear which is needed. For example, if we are asked to find the probability,38 (Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability that the items in a sample arrive in a specified order, then we cannot even specify the ‘event of interest unless we treat different arrangements of the same items as different, ‘outcomes, Examples 1.8.5 and 1.86 illustrate how different problem descriptions can lead to very ditferent calculations. However, there are cases in which the problem description does not make it clear whether or not one must count the same elements in different orders as different ‘outcomes, Indeed, there are some problems that can be solved correctly both ways, Example 1.8.9 is one such problem. In that problem, we needed to decide what we ‘would call an outcome, and then we needed to count how many outcomes were in the whole sample space $ and how many were in the event £ of interest. In the solution presented in Example 1.8.9, we chose as our outcomes the positions in the 52-card deck that were occupied by the four aces, We did not count different arrangements of the four aces in those four positions as different outcomes when we counted the ‘number of outcomes in S, Hence, when we calculated the number of outcomes in E. ‘we also did not count the different arrangements of the four aces in the four possible positions as different outcomes. In general, this is the principle that should guide the choice of counting method. If we have the choice between whether or not to count the same elements in different orders as different outcomes, then we need to make ‘our choice and be consistent throughout the problem, If we count the same elements in different orders as different outcomes when counting the outcomes in S, we must do the same when counting the elements of E. If we do not count them as different ‘outcomes when counting S, we should not count them as different when counting E Playing Cards, Revisited. We shall solve the problem in Example 1.8.9 again, but this time, we shall distinguish outcomes with the same cards in different orders. To go to the extreme, let each outcome be a complete ordering of the 52 cards. So, there are 52! possible outcomes. How many of these have one ace in each of the four sets ‘of 13 cards received by the four players? As before, there are 134 ways to choose the four positions for the four aces, one among each of the four sets of 13 cards, No matter which of these sets of positions we choose, there are 4! ways to arrange the four aces in these four positions. No matter how the aces are arranged, there are 48! ‘ways lo arrange the remaining 48 cards in the 48 remaining positions. So, there are 13 x 41x 48! outcomes in the event of interest. We then calculate 134 x Al x 48! =o.10ss 52! * In the following example, whether one counts the same items in different orders as different outcomes is allowed to depend on which events one wishes to use. Lottery Tickets. Ina lottery game, sit numbers from 1 to 30 are drawn at random from a bin without replacement, and each player buys a ticket with six different numbers from 1 to 30, If al six numbers drawn match those on the player's ticket, the player ‘wins. We assume that all possible draws are equally likely. One way to construct a sample space for the experiment of drawing the winning combination is to consider the possible sequences of draws. That is, each outcome consists of an ordered subset of six numbers chosen from the 30 available numbers, There ate Py 4 = 301/24! such ‘outcomes, With this sample space $, we can calculate probabilities for events such as A= (the draw contains the numbers 1, 14, 15,20, 23, and 27), B = {one of the numbers drawn is 15), and C= (the first number drawn is less than 10),Example 18 Combinatorial Methods 39 There is another natural sample space, which we shall denote 5’, for this experiment. It consists solely of the diferent combinations of six numbers drawn from the 30 available. There are (2) =301/(624) such outcomes Italso seems natural to consider all of these outcomes equally likely. With this sample space, we can calculate the probabilities ofthe events A and above, but C is nota subset of the sample space 5, £0 we cannot calculate its probability Using this smaller sample space. When the sample space for an experiment could naturally be constructed in more than one way, ‘one needs to choose based on for which events one wants to compute probabilities < Example 1.8.11 raises the question of whether one will compute the same prob- abilities using two different sample spaces when the event, such as A or B, exists in both sample spaces. In the example, cach outcome in the smaller sample space 5° corresponds to an event in the larger sample space S. Indeed, each outcome 2° in $° corresponds to the event in § containing the 6! permutations of the single combination «’. For example, the event A in the example has only one outcome s' = (1, 14, 15, 20, 23, 27) in the sample space 5", while the corresponding event in the sample space § has 6! permutations including (1,14, 15, 20, 23,27), (14, 20, 27, 15,23, ), @7, 23, 20, 15, 14, D, ete In the sample space 5, the probability of the event A is 6 ena 1 P= In the sample space 5", the event has this same probability because it has only one cof the ©) equally likely outcomes. The same reasoning applies to every outcome in 5. Hence, if the same event can be expressed in both sample spaces § and S', we ‘will compute the same probability using either sample space. This isa special feature ‘of examples like Example 1.8.11 in which cach outcome in the smaller sample space corresponds to an event in the larger sample space with the same number of elements “There are examples in which ths feature is not present, and one cannot treat both sample spaces as simple sample spaces. Tossing Coins. An experiment consists of tossing a coin two times, If we want to distinguish H followed by T from T followed by H, we should use the sample space $= (HH, HT, TH, TT), which might naturally be assumed a simple sample space. On the other hand, we might be interested solely in the number of H's tossed. In this «case, we might consider the smaller sample space 5’ = (0, 1,2) where each outcome merely counts the aumber of H's. The outcomes 0 and 2 in 5” each correspond to a single outcome in 5, but 1 € S" corresponds to the event {HT, TH} cS with two ‘outcomes, If we think of Sas a simple sample space, then $" will not be a simple sample space, because the outcome 1 will have probability 1/2 while the other two ‘outcomes each have probability 1/4 There are situations in which one would be justified in treating S° as a simple sample space and assigning each of its outcomes probability 1/3. One might do this if one believed that the coin was not fair, but one had no idea how unfair it was or which side were more likely to land up. In this case, S would not be a simple sample space, because two of its outcomes would have probability 1/3 and the other two ‘would have probabilities that add up to 1/3, <40 to fe (Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Example 1.8.6 is another case of two different sample spaces in which each ‘outcome in one sample space corresponds to a different number of outcomes in the ‘other space, See Exercise 12in Sec. 1.9 for amore complete analysis of Example 1.8.6, The Tennis Tournament We shall now present a difficult problem that has a simple and elegant solution Suppose that n tennis players are entered in a tournament. Inthe fist round, the players are paired one agaist another atrandorn. The loser in each paris eliminated from the tournament. and the winner in each pair continues into the second round. If the number of players nis odd, then one player is chosen at random before the pairings are made for the first round, and that player automatically continues into the second round. Al the players in the second round are then paired at random, ‘Again, the loser in each pair is eliminated, and the winner in each pair continues {nto the third round, Ifthe number of players inthe second round is od, then one of these players is chosen at random before the others are paired, and that player aiomaticaly continues int the third ound, The tournament continues in this way ‘util only two players remain inthe final round. They then play against cach other, andthe winner of ths match is the winner of the tournament, We shall assume that all players have equal ability and we shall determine the probability p that two specific payers A and B wil ever play against each other durin the tournament. ‘We shall first determine the total number of matches that will be played during the tournament, Alter each match has been played, one player—ihe loser of that rmatch—is eliminated from the tournament. The tournament ends when everyone has been eliminated from the tournament except the winner of the final match. Since exactly n~ I players must be eliminated, it follows that exactly n ~ 1 matches must be played during the tournament. The numberof possible pairs of players i (). Bach of the two players in every ratchis equally ikelyto win that match, and alliniial pairings are made in arandom manner. Therefore, before the tournament begins, every possible pair of players is equally likely to appear in cach particular one of the n ~ 1 matches to be played daring the tournament. Accordingly, the probability that players A and 2 will mect in some particular match that is specified in advance is (3). A and B do meetin that particular match, one of them willlose and be eliminated. Therefore, these same two players cannot meet in more than one match Te follows from the preceding explanation that the probability p that players A and B will mect at some time during the tournament is equal tothe product of the probability 1/() tha they will meet in any particular specified match and the total ‘number n ~ 1 of different matches in which they might possibly mect. ence, go ‘e Summary ‘We showed that the number of size k subsets of a set of size m is (() = nl/[kl(n — ')!]. This turns out to be the number of possible samples of size k drawn without replacement from a population of size n as well as the number of arrangements of n items of two types with & of one type and n — k of the other type. We also saw several18 Combinatorial Methods 4 ‘examplesin which more than one counting technique was required at different points in the same problem. Sometimes, more than one technique is required to count the ‘elements of a single set. Exercises L. Two pollsters will canvas @ neighborhood with 20 houses, Bach pollster will visit 10 of the houses, How many different assignments of pollsters to houses are possible? 2. Which of the following two numbers is larger: (2) ot Gt 4. Which ofthe following two numbers is larger: (8) ot a 4. A box contains 24 lightbulbs of which four are defec- tive. Ifa person selects four bulbs fom the box at random, without replacement, what i the probability that all fur bulbs willbe detective? 5. Prove that te following number i an integer: ASS x 4156 4 4250 x 4251 Dx dx KIT 6. Suppose that n people ae seated in a random manner in a row of n theater seats. What is the probability that two particular people A and B will be seated next to each, other? 7. Ik people are seated in a random manner in a row containing m seats (n > &), what isthe probability that the people will occupy & adjacent seats in the row? 8. Ik people are seated in a random manner in a cele ‘containing m chairs (n > k), what is the probability thatthe people will occupy k adjacent chairs in the circle? 9. Ifm people are seated in a random manner in a row containing 2n seats, what is the probability that no two People will occupy adjacent seats? 10. A box contains 24 light bulbs, of which two are de- fective. Ifa person selects 10 bulbs at random, without replacement, what is the probability that both defective bulbs will be selected? 1, Suppose that a committee of 12 people is selected in ‘random manner from a group of 100 people, Determine the probability that two particular people A and B will both be selected. 12, Suppose that 35 people are divided in a random man- ner into two teams in such a way that one team contains 10 people and the other team contains 25 people. What is the probability that wo particular people A and B will be fon the same team? 13. A box contains 24 light bulbs of which four are de- fective. If one person selects 10 bulbs from the box in ‘a random manner, and a second person then lakes the remaining 14 bulbs, what is the probability that all four defective bulbs will be obtained by the same person? 14. Prove th oral posv integrt mand ( 28), (2) (,",) ("82 (Gr) Cr a Prove hat 6) @)'@) (- ()-@)-@)-@--+rQ)-° Hint: Use the binomial theorem. 16, The United States Senate contains two senators from, cach of the 50 states (a) Ifa committee of cight senators is selected at random, what is the probability that it will contain at least one of the two senators from a certain specified state? (b) What is the probability that a group ‘of 50 senators selected at random will contain one senator {rom each state? 17. A deck of 32 cards contains four aces. If the cards fare shutfled and distributed in a random manner to four players so that each player receives 13 cards, what is the probability that all four aces will be received by the same player? 18, Suppose that 100 mathematics students are divided into five classes, each containing 20 students, and that awards are to be given to 10 of these students. It each student is equally likely to receive an award, what is the probability that exactly two students in each class will receive awards? 19, A restaurant asm items on its menu. During a partic ular day, k customers will arive and each one will choose fone item, The manager wants to count how many dif- {erent collections of customer choices are possible with- ‘out regard to the order in which the choices are made, (For example, if =3 and ay... ay are the menu items,42 Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability then 2,40; i not distinguished fom 42,0) Prove that the numberof different collections of customer chofces is (CE) Hine: Assume thatthe menu items ate dy». Show that each collection of customer choices, arranged with the a st, the ys second, ete, can be ideatifed with a sequence off zeros and n —1ones, where each O ands fora customer choice and each 1 indicates a point in the sequence where the ment item number increases by L Forexample,itk = Sand =§, then aya, becomes ooni01. 20, Prove the binomial theorem 1.8.2. Hint: You may use an induction argument, That is, frst prove that the result is We ifn = 1. Then, under the assumption that there is rio such thatthe results true for all n 2) in such a way that, for j=1,...,£, the jth group contains exactly nny elements, where m+n; +----+ny—n. It is desired to determine the number of different ways in which the n elements can be divided into the & groups. The19 Multinomial Cocflicients 43 zn elements in the first group can be selected from the n available elements in (") different ways. After the n; elements in the first group have been selected, the elements in the second group can be selected from the remaining n ~_n elements in ("5") different ways. Hence, the total number of different ways of selecting the elements for both the first group and the second group is (")(""). After the my +m clements in the first two groups have been selected, the mumber of different ways in which the n; elements in the third group can be selected ("~"!""), Hence, the total ‘number of different ways of selecting the elements forthe first three groups is 1 follows fom the preceding explanation tha, foreach j=, k 2 after the ist j groups have Been formed, the mumbo of diferent ways in whieh te n Clementine nea group (1 Dean beseeced om thefemainingn =m nr clomentsis ("HE -N) After ihe cements of areup t= 1 have bes ected the remaining ny eleents must then form the lst group Hence the total number tx diloret ways of dividing then lements into theFoups 6 OO) Co) aaa where the last formula follows from writing the binomial coefficients in terms of factorials, Multinomial Coefficients. The number a which we sattdenote by (| is called a multinomial coefficient. ‘The name multinomial coefficient derives from the appearance of the symbol in the multinomial theorem, whose proof is eft as Exercise 11 in this section, Multinomial Theorem. For all numbers x... x, and each positive integer m, are ee (gg aia where the summation extends over all possible combinations of nonnegative integers my, sme such that my ++ myo mp =n. . A multinomial coefficients a generalization of the binomial coefficient discussed in Sec. 18, For t= 2, the multinomial theorem is the same as the binomial theorem, and the multinomial coefficient becomes a binomial coefficient. In particular, (ud) Choosing Commies. In Example 9, ne seth the soation oainedthr ste namely, (3 4) = ag = 2985150 < 88,4) ~ Boal4 (Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability Example 193 Example 194 Arrangements of Elements of More Than Two Distinet Types Just as binomial ‘coefficients can be used to represent the number of different arrangements of the elements of a set containing elements of only two distinct types, multinomial coeffi- cients can be used to represent the number of different arrangements of the elements of a set containing elements of & different types (k > 2). Suppose, for example, that rn balls of k different colors are to be arranged in a row and that there are n, balls ofcolor j (j =1,..., 8), where ny $n; +--+ =n. Then each different arrange- ‘ment of the n balls corresponds to a different way of dividing the n available positions in the row into a group of n; positions to be occupied by the bal of color 1, a second, {group of n; positions to be occupied by the balls of color 2, and so on. Hence, the total number of different possible arrangements of the n balls must be Rolling Dice. Suppose that 12dice are to be rolled. We shall determine the probability p that each of the six different numbers will appear twice. Each outcome in the sample space $ can be regarded as an ordered sequence ‘of 12 numbers, where the /th number in the sequence is the outcome of the ith roll, Hence, there will be 6! possible outcomes in S, and each of these outcomes can be regarded as equally probable. The number of these outcomes that would contain ‘each of the six numbers 1, 2, .., 6 exactly twice will be equal to the number of different possible arrangements of these 12 elements. This number can be determined by evaluating the multinomial coefficient for which n = 12, k =6,andmy =n; = ++ = ng =2. Hence, the number of such outcomes is 2 nt 2, 2, 2,2, 2,2) QDS" and the required probability p is 121 sags = 0.084 < Playing Cards. A deck of 52 cards contains 13 hearts. Suppose that the cards are shuffled and distributed among four players A, B, C, and D so that each player receives 13 cards. We shall determine the probability p that player A will receive six hearts, player B will receive four hearts, player C will receive two hearts, and player D will receive one heatt, The total number N of different ways in which the 52 cards can be distributed ‘among the four players so that each player receives 13 cards is 2) a (ania) z Itmay be assumed that each of these ways is equally probable, We must now calculate the number M of ways of distributing the cards so that each player receives the required number of hearts. The number of different ways in which the hearts can be distributed to players A, B. C, and D so that the numbers of hearts they receive are 6, 4,2, and 1, respectively, is BY) Bt 6.4.2.1) ~ saanExercises 19 Multinomial Coefficients 45 ‘Also, the number of different ways in which the other 39 cards can then be distributed to the four players so that each will have a total of 13 cards is 39 39! 7,9, 11, 12) ~ FMT 1st 39 “Gaon Feu and the required probability pis M asgo1a3pt WN” Bapmroninasal There is another approach to this problem along the lines indicated in Exam- ple 1.89 on page 37. The numberof possible different combinations ofthe 13 posi tions in the deck occupied by the hearts is (3). If player Ais to receive six heats there are (2) posible combinations of the sx positions these hearts occupy among the 13 cards that will receive. Silay if player B is to receive four hears, there are (2) possible combinations of their postions among the 13 cards that B will r- ceive, There are (2) possible combinations for player C, and there are (2) possible combinations for player D. Hence, C08) z 3 CIE (3) which produces the same value as the one obtained by the first method of solution. < Therefore, = 0.00196, Summary Multinomial coefficients generalize binomial coetficients. The coctficient (,, " ,,) is the number of ways to partition a set of n items into distinguishable subsets of sizes nyo mg Where my +----ng =n. tis also the number of arrangements of n items of k different types for which m, are of type fori =1,..., k. Example 1.94illustrates another important point to remember about computing probabilities: There might ‘be more than one correct method for computing the same probability. L. Three pollsters will canvas a neighborhood with 21 houses, Each pollster will visit seven of the houses, How many different assignments of posters to houses are pos- sible? 2, Suppose that 18 red beads, 2 yellow beads, eight blue ‘beads, and 12 black beads are to be strung in a row. How ‘many different arrangements of the colors ean be formed? 3. Suppose that two committees are to be formed in an, organization that has 300 members. If one committee is to have five members and the other committec is to have cight members, in how many different ways can these committees be selected? 4. Uthe letters 5,5, 551,614, fa, € are arranged in a random order, what is the probability that they will spell the word “statisties"? 5, Suppose that n balanced dice are rolled. Determine the probability that the number j will appear exactly, times Gah. 6), Where my fms. me=m46 Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability 6, Iseven balanced dice are rolled, whats the probability that each ofthe six different numbers wil appear atleast 7. Suppose that a deck of 25 cards contains 12 red cards Suppose also that the 25 cards are distibutedin aandom ‘manner to three players A, B, and C in such a way that player A receives 10 cards, player H receives eight cards, and player C receives seven cards. Determine the proba- bility that player A will receive six red cards, player B will receive two red cards, and player C will receive four red ads 8. A deck of S2 cards contains 12 picture cards, If the 52 cards are distributed in a random manner among four players in such a way that each player receives 13 cards, ‘what is the probability that each player will receive three picture cards? 9. Suppose that a deck of 52 cards contains 13 red cards, 13 yellows cards, 13 blue cards, and 13 green cards. Té the 52 cards are distributed in a random manner among four players in such a way that each player receives 13 cards, What is the probability that each player will receive 13 ‘cards of the same color? 10, Suppose that two boys named Davis, three boys named Jones, and four boys named Smith are seated at random in a row containing nine seats. What is the prob- ability that the Davis boys will occupy the first two seats in the row, the Jones boys wll occupy the next three seats, and the Smith boys will occupy the last four seats? 11. Prove the multinomial theorem 1.9.1. (You may wish to-use the same hint asin Exercise 20 in See. 18.) 42, Return to Example 1.8 6, Let $ be the larger sample space (first method of choosing) and lets" be the smaller sample space (second method). For each element sof $", et.N() stand forthe number of elements of § that lead to the same boxfuls’ when the order of choosing is ignored, a. For each s/€ 5’, find a formula for Ne’). Hint: Let zn stand for the number of items of type é ins’ for fa1,...,7. Db. Verify that Soyc5:N() equals the number of out- comes in 5. 1.10 The Probability of a Union of Events The axioms of probability tell us directly how to find the probability of the union of disjoint events. Theorem 1.5.7 showed how to find the probability for the union of two arbitrary events. This theorem is generalized 10 the union of an arbitrary finite collection of events, ‘We shall now consider again an arbitrary sample space $ that may contain either a finite number of outcomes or an infinite number, and we shall develop some further ‘general properties of the various probabilities that might be specified for the events in S.In this section, we shall study in particular the probability of the union of events Ay... Ay Iethe events A, 4 A, are disjoint, we know that Pray. “() Furthermore, for every two events A, and Ay, regardless of whether or not they are disjoint, we know from Theorem 1.5.7 of Sec. 15 that Pr(A;U Ay) (Ay) + Pr(A3) = Pr(Ay 0 AY) In this section, we shall extend this result, first to three events and then to an arbitrary finite number of events The Union of Three Events ‘Theorem 110.1 For every three events Ay, Az, and As,Example 110.1 110 The Probability ofa Union of Events 47 Pr(Ay UAgU As) = Pr(Ay) + Pr(Ay) + Pr(A3) = [PAL Ag) + Pez AS) + P(A 9.49)) + PHA, AD AD), (1.04) oof By the associative property of unions (Theorem 1.46), we can write ALU ALU Ay= Ay A) U Ay Apply Theorem 1.5.7 tothe two events A = A; UA; and B = Ag to obtain Pr(A,U A UAS) = PAU B) = Pra) + Pe(B) PHAN BY (1.102) ‘We next compute the three probabilities on the far right side of (1.10.2) and combine ‘them to get (1.10.1). First, apply Theorem 1.5.7 to the two events A; and A, to obtain, P(A) = Pr(AD) + Pe(A) PHA, AY) (1.103) "Neat, use the rst distributive property in Theorem 1.4.10 to waite ADB =(A,UA}) 04s = (4,04) U (A.D) (110.4) Apply Theorem 1.5.7 tothe events on the far right sie of (1.10.4) to obtain PHAN B)=PHALO AD) +PH(AZVA)—PHALNALN AD. — (1105) Substitute (1.103), Pr(B) = Pr(As), and (1.10.5) into (1.102) to complete the proof Student Enrollment. Among a group of 200 students, 137 students are enrolled in a ‘mathematics class, 50 students are enrolled in a history class, and 124 students are ‘enrolled in a music class, Furthermore, the number of students enrolled in both the mathematics and history classes is 33, the number enrolled in both the history and. music classes is 29, and the number enrolled in both the mathematics and music classes is 92. Finally, the number of students enrolled in all three classes is 18. We shall determine the probability that a student selected at random from the group of 200 students will be enrolled in at least one of the three classes Let A, denote the event that the selected student is enrolled in the mathematics class, let A; denote the event that he is enrolled in the history class, and let Ay denote the event that he is enrolled in the music class, To solve the problem, we ‘must determine the value of Pr(Ay U A; U As), From the given numbers, 7 50 124 BI pray= 22, Pray pr PRAD Pray = a Prin Aa) P(A, Ay 18 Pr: nzn ay = 2. (Ar AAD = 5 Tt follows from Eq, (1.10.1) that Pr(Ay U Az U As) = 175/200 =7; The Union of a Finite Number of Events A result similar to Theorem 1.10.1 holds for any arbitrary finite number of events, as shown by the following theorem,48 (Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability ‘Theorem L102 For every m events Ay... Any m((a)=S5nan-omasnay Y Prananay =D Pwanajnarnan+ (106) +P 1M AY). feof The proof proceeds by induction. In particular, we frst establish that (1.10.6) is true for m = L and n =2. Next, we show that if there exists m such that (1.10.6) is true for all n < m, then (1.10.6) is also true for n = m +1. The case of n = Lis trivial, and the case of n =2 is Theorem 1.5.7. To complete the proof, assume that (1.10.6) ‘We have asstumed that Pr(A) equals (1.10.6) with n = m. We need to show that when we add Pr(A) to Pr(B) — Pr(A 7 B), we get (1.10.6) with n =m +1. The difference between (1.10.6) with m =m +1 and Pr(A) is all of the terms in which one of the subscripts (V, j, k, ete.) equals m + 1. Those terms are the following: Priya) SOPHO Aga) + PHA, A, 7 Ags) = Paina, FDP REAL ARN Ay Ag ‘The first term in (1.10.8) is Pr(B) =Pr(4),,.). All that remains is to show that = Pr(A/ B) equals all but the first term in (1.10.8) Use the natural generalization of the distributive property (Theorem 1.4.10) to write D ALO Ama) + G.108) snn=(Ua) rans Gein dns. (1109) The union in (1.109) contains m events, and hence we can apply (1.10.6) with n = m and each A eplaced by A, Ay. The results that ~PYCA PB) equa al but the first term in (1.10.8). . The calculation in Theorem 1.10.2 can be outlined as follows: First, take the sum of the probabilities of the n individual events. Second, subtract the sum of the probabilities of the intersections of all possible pairs of events; in this step, there will be (") different pairs for which the probabilities are included. Third, add the probabilities of the intersections of all possible groups of three of the events; there will be (') intersections of this type. Fourth, subtract the sum of the probabilities of the intersections of all possible groups of four of the events; there will be (}) intersections of this type. Continue in this way until, finally, the probability of the intersection of all x events is either added or subtracted, depending on whether mis an odd number or an even number.‘> 110 The Probability of Union of Events 49 The Matching Problem Suppose that all the cards in a deck of n different cards are placed in a row, and that the cards in another similar deck are then shuffled and placed in a row on top of the cards in the original deck. It is desired to determine the probability p, that there will be at least one match between the corresponding cards from the two decks. The same problem can be expressed in various entertaining contexts. For example, we could suppose that a person types n letters, types the corresponding addresses on n ‘envelopes, and then places the n letters in the n envelopes in a random manner. Tt could be desired to determine the probability p, that at least one letter will be placed in the correct envelope. As another example, we could suppose that the photographs ‘of x famous film actors are paired in a random manner with n photographs of the same actors taken when they were babies, It could then be desired to determine the probability p, that the photograph of at least one actor will be paired correctly with this actor's own baby photograph, Here we shall discuss this matching problem in the context of letters being placed in envelopes. Thus, we shall let A, be the event that letter i is placed in the correct ‘envelope (i= 1, ..., n), and we shall determine the value of py = Pr (Ui A,) by using Eq, (1.10.6). Since the letters are placed in the envelopes at random, the probability Pr(4)) that any particular letter will be placed in the correct envelope is 1/n. Therefore, the value of the first summation on the right side of Eq, (1.10.6) is Yr Furthermore, since letter 1 could be placed in any one of n envelopes and letter 2 could then be placed in any one of the other n—1 envelopes, the probability Pri, Ap) that both letter 1 and letter 2 will be placed in the correct envelopes is 1/[n(— 2). Similarly, the probability Pr(4, " 4,) that any two specifi letters and } (4 j) will both be placed in the correct envelopes is [n(n ~ 1)} Therefore, the value of the second summation on the right side of Eq, (1.10.6) is rm naps (3) By siniar reasoning, it ean be determined thatthe probability P(A, 04, 0.4) that any thee specie letters. j, and k=] 00, the value of a approaches the following limit Pealeso ‘Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability tis shown in books on elementary calculus that the sum of the infinite series on the right side of this equation is 1 — (1/e), where e = 2.71828. ... Hence, 1 - (I/e) = 063212... It follows that for a large value of n, the probability p, that at least one letter will be placed in the correct envelope is approximately 0.63212. “The exact values of py, a8 given in Eq, (1.10.10), will form an oscillating sequence ‘asin increases. As n increases through the even integers 2, 4, 6, ... the values of p, will increase toward the limiting value 0.63212; and as m increases through the odd. integers 3, 5,7, ... the values of p, will decrease toward this same limiting value. The values of p, converge to the limit very rapidly. In fact, for n =7 the exact value py and the limiting value of p, agree to four decimal places. Hence, regardless ‘of whether seven letters are placed at random in seven envelopes or seven million, letters ate placed at random in seven million envelopes, the probability that at least ‘one letter will be placed in the correct envelope is 0.6321 * Summary ‘We generalized the forma forthe probability of the union of two arbitcary events to the union of finitely many events, As an aside, there are cases in which it is ‘easier to compute Pr(A; U nas. (ALU. UA = AEN Exercises UA,) a8 1=PR(AEA 74S) using the fact that L. Three players are each dealt, in a random manner, five cards from a deck containing 52 cards, Four of the 52 cards are aces, Find the probability that atleast one person receives exactly two aces in their five cards. 2. In a certain city, three newspapers A, B, and C are published. Suppose that 60 percent of the families in the city subseribe to newspaper A, 40 percent of the families subseribe to newspaper B, and 30 percent subscribe to ‘newspaper C. Suppose alto that 20 percent ofthe families subscribe to both and B10 percent subscribe to both, A and C, 20 percent subscribe to both B and C, and 5 percent subscribe to all three newspapers A, B, and C. ‘What percentage of the families in the city subscribe to at least one of the three newspapers? 43. For the conditions of Exercise 2, what percentage of the families in the city subscribe to exactly one of the three newspapers? 4. Suppose that three compact discs are removed from their cases, and that after they have been played, they are pput back into the three empty cases in a random manner. Determine the probability that at least one of the CD's will be put back into the proper cases, 5, Suppose that four guests check their hats when they arrive ata restaurant, and that these hats are retumed to them in a random order when they leave, Determine the probability that no guest will receive the proper hat, 6. A box contains 30 red balls, 30 white balls, and 30 blue balls. 110 balls are selected at random, without replace- ‘ment, what isthe probability that atleast one color will be ‘missing from the selection? 7. Suppose that a school band contains 10 students from the freshman class, 20 students from the sophomore class, 30 students from the junior class, and 40 students from the senior class, If 15 students ate selected at random from the band, what is the probability that at least one student will be selected from each of the four classes? int: First determine the probability that at least one of the four classes will not be represented in the selection. 8, Ifn letters are placed at random in n envelopes, what is the probability that exactly n — letters will be placed in the correct enveloper? 9. Suppose that n letters are placed at random in m en- vvelapes, and let , denote the probability that no letter is placed in the correct envelope. For which of the follow- ing four values of» is q, largest: n= 10,n = 21, n =53, or n= 300?LAL Statistical Swindles 51 40, If three letters are placed at random in three en- Hint: Let the sequence By, By velopes, what is the probability that exactly one letter will cise 12 of Sec. 1.5, and show that bbe placed in the correct envelope? be defined as in Exer- IL Suppose that 10 cards, of which five are red and five “(0 4) = fim, a a) = Fim, Pray axe green, are placed at random in 10 envelopes, of which, live are red and five are green. Determine the probability that exactly x envelopes will contain «card with a match- 13, Let A;, Az... be an infinite sequence of events such waa e te, Bea 8. Broe st 12 Let Ay Ay. be amine sequence ofcvents such * that Ay CA; C= Prove that (4) = sim Prey) (a) =a. my stn Cnet ge agp ee ‘Joe cise 12. “ LIL Statistical Swindles This section presents some examples of how one can be misled by arguments that require one to ignore the calculus of probability. Misleading Use of Statistics The field of statistics has a poor image in the minds of many people because there is a widespread belief that statistical data and statistical analyses can easily be manip- ulated in an unscientific and unethical fashion in an effort to show that a particular conclusion of point of view is correct. We all have heard the sayings that “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” (Mark Twain [1924, p. 246] says that this line has been attributed to Benjamin Disraeli) and that “You can prove anything with statistics” ‘One benefit of studying probability and statistics is that the knowledge we gain ‘enables us to analyze statistical arguments that we read in newspapers, magazines, or elsewhere. We can then evaluate these arguments on their merits, rather than accepting them blindly. In this section, we shall describe three schemes that have been used to induce consumers to send money to the operators of the schemes in exchange for certain types of information. The first (wo schemes are not strictly statistical in nature, but they are strongly based on undertones of probability Perfect Forecasts Suppose that one Monday morning you receive in the mail a letter from a firm with which you are not familiar, stating that the firm sells forecasts about the stock market for very high fees. To indicate the firm's ability in forecasting, it predicts that a particular stock, or a particular portfolio of stocks, wllise in value during the coming, ‘week. You do not respond to this letter, but you do watch the stock market during the ‘week and notice that the prediction was correct. On the following Monday morning you receive another letter from the same firm containing another prediction, this one specifying that a particular stock will drop in value during the coming week. Again the prediction proves to be correct.32 ‘Chapter 1 Introduction to Probability This routine continues for seven weeks. Every Monday morning you receive a prediction in the mail from the firm, and each of these seven predictions proves to be correct. On the eighth Monday morning, you receive another letter from the firm. This letter states that for a large fee the firm will provide another prediction, on ‘the basis of which you can presumably make a large amount of money on the stock ‘market. How should you respond to ths letter? Since the firm has made seven successive correct predictions, it would seem that it must have some special information about the stock market and is not simply guessing. After all, the probability of correctly guessing the outcomes of seven suecessive tosses ofa fair coin is only (1/2)" ~0.008. Tlenee, if the firm had only been ‘guessing each week, then the firm had a probability less than 0.01 of being correct seven weeks ina row. The fallacy here i that you may have seen only a relatively small muraber of the forecasts that the firm made during the seven-week period. Suppose, for example, that the firm started the entite process with a list of 2” = 128 potential clients. On the first Monday, the firm could send the forecast that a particular stock will ise in value to half of these clients and send the forecast that the same stock will drop in value to the other hall On the second Monday, the firm could continue writing to ‘those 68 clients for whom the ist forecast proved to be correct. It could again send a new forecast to half of those 64 clients and the opposite forecast to the other halt tthe end of seven weeks, the frm (which usualy consists of only one person and a ‘computer) must necessarily have one client (and only one client) for whom all seven forecasts were correct By following this procedure with several different groups of 128 clients, and starting new groups each week, the firm may be able to generate enough positive responses from clients fr it to realize significant profits Guaranteed Winners There is another scheme that is somewhat related to the one just described but that is ‘even more elegant because of its simplicity. In this scheme, a firm advertises that for a fixed fee, usually 10 or 20 dollars, it will send the client its forecast of the winner of any upcoming baseball game, football game, boxing match, or other sports event that the client might specify: Furthermore, the firm offers a money-back guarantee that this forecast will be correct; that is, if the team or person designated as the winner in the forecast does not actually turn out to be the winner, the firm will return the full, fee to the client. How should you react to such an advertisement? At first glance, it would appear thatthe firm must have some special knowledge about these sports events, because otherwise it could not afford to guarantee its forecasts, Further reflection reveals, however, that the firm simply cannot lose, because its only expenses are those for advertising and postage. In effect, when this scheme is used, the firm holds the client’s {fee until the winner has been decided. If the forecast was correct, the firm keeps the fee; otherwise, it simply returns the fee to the client. (On the other hand, the client can very well lose. He presumably purchases the firm's forecast because he desires to bet on the sports event. If the forecast proves to ‘be wrong, the client will not have to pay any fee to the firm, but he will have lost any money that he bet on the predicted winner. Thus, when there are “guaranteed winners,” only the firm is guaranteed to win, In fact, the firm knows that it will be able to keep the fees from all the clients for ‘whom the forecasts were correct1.12 Supplementary Exercises 53 Improving Your Lottery Chances State lotteries have become very popular in America, People spend millions of dollars cach week to purchase tickets with very small chances of winning medium to enormous prizes. With so much money being spent on lottery tickets, it should not be surprising that a few enterprising individuals have concocted schemes to cash in ‘on the probabilistic naiveté of the ticket-buying public, There are now several books and videos available that claim to help lottery players improve their performance, People actually pay money for these items. Some of the advice is just common sense, but some of it is misleading and plays on subtle misconceptions about probability. For concreteness, suppose that we have a game in which these are 40 balls num- bered 1 to 40 and six are drawn without replacement to determine the winning combination. A ticket purchase requires the customer to choose six different num- bers from 1 to 40 and pay a fee. This game has (‘) = 3,838,380 different winning combinations and the same number of possible tickets. One piece of advice often found in published lottery aids is not to choose the six numbers on your ticket too far apart, Many people tend to pick their six numbers uniformly spread out from 1 to 40, but the winning combination often has two consecutive numbers or at least two num ‘bers very close together, Some of these “advisors” recommend that, since itis more likely that there will be numbers close together, players should bunch some of their six numbers close together. Such advice might make sense in order to avoid choosing the same numbers as other players in a parimutuel game (Le.,a game in which all ‘winners share the jackpot). But the idea that any strategy can improve your chances ‘of winning is misleading To sce why this advice is misleading, let E be the event that the winning com- bination contains atleast one pair of consecutive numbers. The reader can calculate Pr(B) in Exercise 13 in Sec. 112. For this example, Pr(E) = 0.577. So the lotery aids are correct that E has high probability. However, by claiming that choosing a ticket in E increases your chance of winning, they confuse the probability of the event E with the probability of each outcome in E. If you choose the ticket (5,7, 14, 23, 24, 38), ‘your probability of winning is only 1/3,828, 380, just as it would be if you chose any bother ticket. The fact that this ticket happens to be in E doesn't make your probabi ity of winning equal o 0.577. The reason that Pr(E) is so bigis that so many different combinations are in E. Each of those combinations sill has probability 1/3,828,380 ‘of winning, and you only get one combination on each ticket. The fact that there are s0 many combinations in £ docs not make each one any more likely than anything else. 1.12 Supplementary Exercises L. Suppose that a coin is tossed seven times. Let A denote the event that ahead is obtained on the frst toss, andlet B denote the event that a head is obtained on the Lith toss. Are A and B disjoint? 2. If A, B, and D are three events such that Pr(AU BU D) =07, what is the value of Pr(A°.B°N D)? 3. Suppose that a certain precinct contains 350 voters, of ‘which 250 are Democrats and 100 are Republicans. If 30 voters are chosen at random from the precinct, what isthe probability that exactly 18 Democrats will be selected? 4, Suppose that in a deck of 20 cards, each card has one fof the numbers 1, 2,3, 4, or 5 and there ate four cards with each number. If 10 cards are chosen from the deck at random, without replacement, what is the probability hat ceach of the numbers 1,2, 3, 4, and 5 will appear exactly 5, Consider the contractor in Example 1.5.4 on page 19. He wishes to compute the probability thatthe total utility clemand is high, meaning that the sum of water and elec- trical demand (in the units of Example 1.455) is at least54 Chapter I Introduction to Probability 215, Draw a picture of this event on a graph like Fig. LS or Fig. 19 and find its probability. ‘6. Suppose that a box contains r red balls and w white balls. Suppose also that balls are drawn fom the box one ata time, at random, without replacement. (a) Whats the probability that all red balls will be obtained before any White balls are obtained? (b) What is the probability that allr red balls will be obtained before two white balls are obtained? 7. Suppose that a box contains r red balls, w white balls, and b blue balls. Suppose also that balls are drawn from, the box one at a time, at random, without replacement ‘What is the probability that all red balls will be obtained before any white balls are obtained? '8. Suppose that 10 cards, of which seven are red and three ate green, are put at random into 10 envelopes, of which seven are red and three are green, so that each envelope contains one card, Determine the probability that exactly envelopes will contain a card with a matching color 20,1... 10). 9. Suppose that 10 cards, of which five are red and five are green, are put at random into 10 envelopes, of which seven are red and three are green, so that each envelope ‘contains one card, Determine the probability that exactly envelopes will contain a card with a matebing color 20,1... 10). 10, Suppose that the events A and B are disjoint, Under what conditions are A® and B° disjoint? AL. Let Ay, Ap, and Ay be three arbitrary events. Show that the probability that exactly one of these three events will Pr(Ay) + PHA) +PH(AD) = 2Pr(ALN Ag) 2 P(A Ag) —2PrAa AD) + 3Pr(ALO ALN AD) 12, Let A;,..., A, be m arbitrary events. Show that the probability that exactly one of these n events will occur i 04) Dray -2D pany e3 Do Prana, me Dn PAL Aa) 13, Consider a state lottery game in which each winning combination and each ticket consists of one set of k num= ‘bers chosen from the numbers 1 to without replacement. ‘We shall compute the probability thatthe winning combi- nation contains at least one pair of consecutive numbers. a, Prove that if < 2k — 1, then every winning combi- nation has at least one pair of consecutive numbers. For the rest ofthe problem, assume that m > 2k — 1 b. Let ip <-+

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