Contemporary World: Global Demography
Contemporary World: Global Demography
Contemporary World: Global Demography
Cohen (2008) believed that by 2050 there will be 9 billion people on the planet, addition
of over 50 million per year. But after the increase on population, the world will
experience a global decline of population – slower growth, increasing decline, older
people and more urban living.
Demographic change caught the interest of people about demography and became
the popular subject of political debates in developed countries who experienced birth
rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per women. At the same time, life
expectancy has been rising considerably and continues to rise which sometimes called
“the aging of societies”.
Demography is not only concern with birth rate, mortality and migration but it actually
gives information to people to plan their future investments and services.
“There is no such thing as destiny. We shape our own lives.” – Giacomo Casanova
The future of our population will be at the hands of the people around the globe.
The study of demography has far too long been dominated by pessimism and inhuman,
simplistic accounting.
Throughout history, demography has been a part in understanding global changes,
economic greatness and downfall, migration, social/cultural diversity and
dynamism.
The mirror image of countries with high population growth (ex: Africa) are countries with
falling population and considered as countries in transition that created forceful
imperative care about the development prospects in terms of social safety nets,
employment conditions, health care needs and a host of other issues.
Developed countries continue to decline in terms of fertility which resulted to great shift
from young to aging population.
Developing countries are expecting explosion due to improved nutrition, public health
infrastructure and medical care.
Imbalance weight of population of a developed + developing countries = demographic
suicide (a situation where there is a continuous imbalance between birth and death).
Germany, Japan, Italy, Russia and South Korea are considered as countries
attempting to commit demographic suicide due to excess number of death over birth.
The advancement of human survival were challenged through the emergence of deadly
diseases, resiliency of the old diseases and the economic sustainability of
modern health care due to the rising costs and demographic aging.
Rebound and Adjustment of the demographic system is known as the aftermath of a
great crisis.
Examples of Rebound:
1. increases of prices of goods due to bad weather
2. a war followed by famine, epidemic and other diseases
3. increase of mortality due to dissolution of marriages because of widowhood,
fewer new marriages which results to low conception and birth
Adjustment requires time; factors which affects responses are compound and
adaptable. It could be:
1. economic in nature (advancement in technology and productivity, investment and
others)
2. demographic ( adjustment in demographic system which may lead to growth or
decline of population)
The fact that we cannot isolate one factor from the other since most of the time the two
are of mutable force and impact.
1. Fertility/Population Growth (Japan, Thailand, Caribbean Islands after European
Colonization)
2. Migration
“The number of over-60s in the rich world is predicted to rise by 2.5 times by
2050 to 418 million, but the trajectory starts to level off in about 20 years’
time. Within this cohort, the number of people aged over 80 will rise six times
to about a 120 million. In emerging and developing world, the number over
60s will grow by more than 7 times to over 1.5 billion by 2050, and behind
this, you can see a 17-fold increase in the expected population of those aged
over 80, to about 262 million.”
“It’s this that gives that rise to the common mantra of ‘growing old before
you get rich’.”