Reducing CO2 Emissions from

Transportation: Technology
and Policy Options
Alan C. Lloyd, Ph.D.
President, International Council on Clean Transportation
University of Minnesota, CTS
April 16, 2008
 Outline
 ICCT Background
 Background on need for greenhouse gas reduction methods
for transportation
 California efforts to reduce greenhouse gas from
transportation
 Federal efforts
 Lessons from International experience
 Biofuels & Low Carbon Fuels Standards
 Suggestions for Minnesota based upon California experience
International Council on Clean Transportation
 Goal of the ICCT is to dramatically reduce conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas
emissions from all transportation sources in order to improve air quality and human
health, and mitigate climate change.
 Promotes best practices and comprehensive solutions to:
– Improve vehicle emissions and efficiency
– Increase fuel quality and sustainability of alternative fuels
– Reduce pollution from the in-use fleet, and
– Curtail emissions from international goods movement.
 The Council is made up of leading regulators and experts from around the world.
 Overall Vision for California
 Meet GHG reduction
goals for 2020 and
2050
 Environmental &
economic benefits
 Repeat California’s
environmental
successes
 Rationale for Reducing GHG
If we do not take action…
– Severe impact on ecosystems and large-scale species
extinctions likely
– Climate change negatively effects public health impact
and urban air quality
– Potentially distributive impact on snowfall / rainfall ratio
– Climate change effects on agriculture and vegetation
– If we take effective action, some warming will still occur
but much less severe effects
GHG from Transportation in Minnesota
 Greenhouse gases associated with transportation
– Carbon dioxide (CO2)
– Methane (CH4)
– Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) contributing to Ozone (O3)
– Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)
– Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
– Black Carbon

Transportation accounts for 29% of GHG

in Minnesota (WRI; CAIT-US, 2007)
–GHG emissions from transportation
increased by 43% between 1990 and 2003,
the largest percentage increase in this
sector in the Midwest.

Source: WRI, CAIT-US (2007).

Approaches for Light-Duty Vehicles
 Improved efficiency with existing technologies
 Increasing dieselization
 Lower to zero carbon fuels including biofuels
 Hybrid and electric drive
 Improved mass transit
 Encourage pedestrian and bicycle lanes
 Better land use planning to improve mobility and
reduce auto use
Approaches for Heavy-Duty Vehicles
 Improved efficiency
 Reduce idling
 Better aerodynamics
 Low rolling resistance tires
 Overall Political Landscape
for GHG Reductions
 Rapid rise in oil prices
 Economic downturn
 Action at state level to address climate
change
 Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007
 State Actions
 California Legislation / Regulation
– Pavley
• Background
• Status
• Adoption by other states
– California Global Warming Solutions Act
of 2006
 Timeline for California AB32
 “Early Action Measures” adopted 2007
 Draft “Scoping Plan” workshops summer
2008
 Final Plan presented to Board by Nov 2008
 All regulations “operative” by Jan 2012
 Reduce GHG by 20% by 2020
 Reduce GHG by 80% by 2050
 Regulation Reduces CA
Climate Change Emissions*
700
LDV CO2 1000s ton/day

600

500

400 Status quo

300
-19% -27% Regulation

200
* Fleetwide
100
0
2004 2010 2020 2030
 Low GHG Emitting Vehicles
 GHG standards for new passenger vehicles (adopted 2004)
– 2009+ models
– Phased-in over 6 years
• 23% lower by 2012
• 30% lower by 2016

 Feasible and economic

– Off-the-shelf technologies applied widely
– <5 year payback to owner in fuel savings
 Fleetwide Emission Reductions
(vs 2002)

Cars and Light

Near Term -24.9%
Trucks
(2009 - 2012)
Heavier Trucks -18.3%
Cars and Light
Mid Term -33.9%
Trucks
(2012 –2014)
Heavier Trucks -24.8%
 Available Technologies

Acura RSX Variable valve timing and lift Honda Accord

4%*

* % CO2 reduction

Toyota Matrix
 Available Technologies

6%*

Cylinder Deactivation
2005 Chrysler 300C Hemi

7%

Automated Manual Transmission

Audi TT 3.2
V6; A3 * % CO2 reduction,
large car
 Available Technologies
Gasoline Direct Injection
w/dual cam phasers

5%* Audi A4, VW Passat BMW Valvetronic

(continuously variable valve timing and lift)

6%
8%
Volvo S60

Turbocharger BMW 5 Series

* % CO2
reduction
 Emerging Technologies
(Mid-Term: 2012-16)

 Integrated starter/generator
 Camless valve actuation
 Gasoline homogeneous charge
compression ignition
 More efficient, low-leak R-152a air
conditioning system
 Emerging Technologies

4%1

Integrated Starter/Generator Chevrolet Silverado

6% 16%

Camless Valve Actuation

Homogeneous Combustion Compression Ignition
1 % CO2 reduction
 Available Technologies
Not Considered
 Not considered in setting stringency of GHG
standard
– HEV: Not yet widely available
– Diesel: Emission compliance not certain
 But their production helps manufacturers
meet the GHG standard
 California’s ZEV History
ZEV Reg
Implementation
ZEV
Regulation
FC Buses
on-road
PZEVs
created
AT PZEVs
Created
CaFCP
Started
 Near-Zero Emission Vehicles
 Lifetime emissions (VOC+NOx)
Model Year VOC + NOx (kg) Reduction

1970 1900 --

2005 ‘PZEV’ 8 99.6%

 Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs)

– 48 models for sale, including 7 HEVs (2007)
– 250,000 annual sales (14%) in 2005
– 1,000,000 sales by 2015 (55%)
California Vehicle Emissions Ratings (2007)
 Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (SULEV)
– 3 (HEV) Models for sale
– Tailpipe emissions: 90% cleaner than the average
new model year vehicle
 Partial Zero Emission Vehicles (PZEV)
– 41 Models for sale
– Meet SULEV tailpipe emission standards and zero
evaporative emissions
– 15 year / 150,000 mile warranty
 Advanced Technology PZEV (AT PZEV)
– 8 Models for sale including 7 HEVs + 1 Natural Gas
– Meet SULEV and PZEV emissions standards and
warranty
– Plug-in hybrid or a compressed natural gas vehicle
 Near-Zero Emission Vehicles
•BMW 328Ci & 328i •Mazda 32 & 6

•Buick LaCrosse •Mercedes-Benz E350

•Chevy Cobalt •Mercury Mariner Hybrid

•Chevy Impala •Mitsubishi Galant

•Ford Focus •Mitsubishi Lancer

•Ford Fusion •Nissan Altima & Hybrid

•Ford Escape Hybrid •Pontiac G5 & Grand Prix

•Honda Accord Hybrid, •Saturn Ion

LX, SE, EX, EX-L •Subaru Outback
•Honda Civic Hybrid, •Subaru Legacy
GX, LX, EX
•Toyota Camry
•Hyundai Elantra
•Toyota Prius Hybrid
•Lexus GS & RX
•VW Jetta
•Volvo S40
ICCT Recommendations
for California
 Low and Zero
Emission Transportation
 Continue leadership on light-duty
vehicles
– Current standards: 30 % reduction from today
– Standards for post-2016: 50% reduction from
today
 Expand to heavy duty: potential to cut
emissions 1/3 to 1/2

Source: US DOE
 Deployment of Low - Zero
Carbon Vehicles
 Incentives such as feebates
 Fleet purchase standards/incentives
– Government fleets
– Private fleets
 Shifting Transportation Demand
 Link funding for infrastructure planning &
development to Smart Growth
 More accurate pricing for driving
– Pay-as-You-Go Insurance
– Congestion Charges
– Fuel taxes indexed to GHG & vehicle miles

Source: AC Transit
 Examples of Other Opportunities
 Increased Transit
 Truck stop electrification
 Airport operational equipment
 Freight shift to most energy-efficient modes
 Cross-cutting
Innovative Idea
 California Carbon Trust example Source: AC Transit

– If allowances are auctioned, or carbon fees

assessed, many opportunities to invest revenues
in GHG reductions & technology development
– Many opportunities for GHG reductions and
co-benefits in transportation sectors, energy
supply for zero emission vehicles and
traditional uses
Federal Actions
 Requires Secretary of Transportation to issue new fuel
economy standards for new vehicles, beginning with
model year (MY) 2011
– Separate standards for “passenger automobiles” and “non-passenger
automobiles”
– Passenger and non-passenger automobile standards, combined,
must average 35 mpg by MY 2020
– Standards for MY 2021-2030 shall be “maximum feasible” for that
year
– Standards shall be based on one or more “attribute” and
expressed as a mathematical function
 Requires standards for “work trucks” and “medium-
and heavy-duty on-highway” vehicles after study
– Secretary of Transportation shall contract with National Academy of
Science to study appropriate metrics, available technologies, and costs for
increasing fuel economy in medium- and heavy-duty trucks. NAS shall
issue study within 1 year.
– Within 1 year after receipt of the NAS study, the Dept. of Transportation
shall issue its study on appropriate metrics and testing methods for
medium- and heavy-duty trucks and work trucks.
– Within 2 years after the DOT study, DOT shall issue a regulatory program
for prescribing, measuring, and enforcing fuel economy standards for these
vehicles.
– After these 4 years, any standards issued shall provide at least 4 years
of “lead-time” (shall not take effect before four years later) and 3 years
of stability (shall not be revised for 3 years)
 Directs EPA to promulgate regulations to ensure that
motor vehicle fuel and home heating oil contains specific
types of renewable fuel between 2008-2022.
 Renewable fuel is defined as fuel derived from
“renewable biomass”.
Year Billion gallons
2006 4.0
2010 12.95
2015 20.5
2020 30.0
2022 36.0
– Increasing portions must be “advanced biofuels,” and within advanced
biofuels, a portion must be “cellulosic biofuel” and a portion must be “biomass-
based diesel”.
– The portion not “advanced biofuel” is “conventional biofuel” derived from
corn starch, equal to 15 billion gallons in 2015 and thereafter.
– Any new conventional biofuel plant must achieve a 20% lifecycle GHG
reduction from baseline
– Advanced biofuel includes any biofuel from
“renewable biomass” except corn starch, with
lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions at least 50% less
than baseline.
– A portion of the above total renewable fuel volumes
must qualify as “advanced biofuels” according to the
following schedule. These quantities are part of the total
renewable fuel quantity, they are not additive.
Year Billion Gallons
2009 0.6
2015 5.5
2020 15.0
2022 21.0
 Cellulosic biofuel:
– Cellulosic biofuel is defined as fuel derived from “cellulose,
hemicellulose, or lignin” that is derived from “renewable
biomass” and has lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions 60% less
than “baseline”.
– A portion of the “advanced biofuels” above must qualify as cellulosic
biofuels according to the following schedule. These quantities are
part of the advanced biofuels quantity, they are not additive.
Year Billion Gallons
2010 0.1
2015 3.0
2020 10.5
2022 16.0
 Biomass-based diesel:
– Biomass-based diesel includes biodiesel with lifecycle
GHG emissions at least 50% below baseline.
– Another portion of the above “advanced biofuel”
requirement must qualify as biomass-based diesel,
according to the following schedule. These quantities are
also part of the advanced biofuels quantity, they are not
additive.
Year Billion Gallons
2009 0.5
2012 1.0
 What more can be done?
 Still much room to strengthen federal/state
standards
 Fiscal incentives key to supporting standards
 Supplementary policies needed to promote
advanced technologies
Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for New Passenger Vehicles by
Country, 2002-2018

Source: “Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update.” ICCT, 2007
 Environmental and petroleum reductions goals constrained by
the U.S. fleet characteristics

Fleet average Japan (2004) EU Petrol/Diesel Combined (2006) US (2006)

Vehicle Mass (kg)* 1245 1334 1769
Engine Size (liter) 1.5 1.7 3.4
CAFE mpg 39.3 40.0 24.7
NEDC mpg 36.0 36.7 21.6
NEDC CO2 g/km 152 161 254
Representative Honda Fit Fiat Multijet Fiat Dynamic Chrysler 300 Touring Exe.
Cars M5, Petrol,1.5 Liter M5, Petrol,1.6 Liter M5, Diesel,1.9 Liter A5, Petrol, 3.5 Liter
Vehicle Mass (kg) 1215 1320 1320 1754
Engine Size (liter) 1.5 1.6 1.9 3.5
CAFE mpg 41.2 35.0 44.5 23.4
NEDC mpg 37.8 31.8 41.3 20.4
NEDC CO2 g/km 145 173 153 269
Source Testcar 07 ? Polk - 06 Polk - 06 Ward's 07

Vehicle mass: mass of vehicle in running order, means the mass of an unladen vehicle with bodywork, and coupling device in the case of a towing vehicle including
coolant, oils, 90 percent of fuel, other liquids
Fleet characteristics influenced by fiscal incentives

Draft Analysis
US remains outlier in not taxing carbon from vehicles

Draft Analysis
Fuel efficiency standards continue to be set based on incumbent
technologies worldwide

Select MY 2008 vehicles and 2015 fuel efficiency standards in Japan

Fuel efficiency (km/L on JC08 test cycle)

2015
standard Hybrid
gasoline-electric
vehicles

Advanced gasoline
vehicles

Kerb weight (kg) Source: MLIT, 2008.

 Low Carbon Fuel Standard
 Europe, California, England
 Applies to all transportation fuels
 Performance-based
 Discourages high-carbon fuels
– Tar sands or coal-to-liquids
 Differentially rewards clean fuels
– Prefers biodiesel from grease over corn ethanol from coal-fired
plants
 Allows the market to choose winners
 Creates a very large, long-term market, so raising capital for
new investments will be far easier
Biofuels
 Efficiency is critical
 No trade off between GHG &
criteria and toxic emissions
 First generation
– Grain ethanol
– Biodiesel
 Second generation
– Cellulosic ethanol
– Biobutanol
 Biofuels: Issues
 Biofuels and food supply
 Will biofuels harm overall environment?
 Could biofuels exacerbate impact on climate
- production chain?
 Impact on trade patterns
 Need for certification for sustainable biofuels
Recommendation for
Minnesota?
Thank you!