Cause-And-Effect Analysis of Ship Fires Using Relations Diagrams
Cause-And-Effect Analysis of Ship Fires Using Relations Diagrams
Cause-And-Effect Analysis of Ship Fires Using Relations Diagrams
Barbara Kwiecińska
Maritime University of Szczecin, Faculty of Navigation
1–2 Wały Chrobrego St., 70-500 Szczecin, Poland, e-mail: [email protected]
Key words: maritime transport, fire, relation between causes, interrelationship diagram, cause and effect,
safety
Abstract
This paper analyses the causes of fires on board merchant ships and fishing vessels. The study attempts to
identify the causes of fire occurrence on board ships and to determine their interrelations using the relations
diagram, also known as the interrelationship diagram or digraph. This diagram identifies relations not only
between causes and effects but also between two or more causes. Elements of the diagram, which have the
greatest number of directed connections from/to, are the starting points for further ship safety analysis. The
relations diagram is used as a basis for planning corrective measures and actions directly increasing shipping
safety at sea. Knowing the various causes of fire occurrence, it is possible to eliminate or to reduce their
number in the future by revising and drawing up relevant maritime transport regulations. This, in turn, can
enhance shipping safety.
Introduction
accidents (Figure 1). Fires, which represented 20%
Despite advancements in production technolo- of cases, were the second major cause of accidents.
gies of ship components, safety systems and ship Because damage caused by ship collisions has been
automation, accidents in maritime transport contin- the subject of many considerations and analyses,
ue to happen. However, making use of marine this work will focus on fires on board ships.
accidents analysis (Bogalecka, Markowski & By definition, a fire is an uncontrolled, sponta-
Rutkowska, 2001), we can minimize risks in mari- neous process of combustion of inorganic and/or
time transport by selecting appropriate construction organic materials. For a fire to occur there must be
materials, applying fire detection and suppression three basic components, forming the so-called
systems, and appropriate ship operation and safety combustion, or fire triangle: oxidizer, flammable
management (Łusznikow & Ferlas, 1999; Girtler, material and a source of thermal energy (Figure 3).
Kuszmider & Plewiński, 2003). This includes These factors combined together result in the
regular maintenance, training of crew members, spread of fire and often lead to tragic consequences,
and appropriate procedures regarding hot work especially at sea. An example of the percentage fire
permits. The knowledge of the causes and effects of distribution by ship type is presented in Figure 2,
marine accidents will allow their future prevention, while consequences of fires on all the mentioned
consequently raising the level of safety. The study ship types (in the examined period of time) are
of relevant literature (Bogalecka, 2015) and the presented in Figure 4.
author’s research of available data (Łusznikow & Fatalities or missing persons as a result of fire
Ferlas, 1999; Bogalecka, Markowski & Rutkowska, represent the highest percentage (18%) on all types
2001; Girtler, Kuszmider & Plewiński, 2003) has of ships. The second major effect is damage to
revealed that collisions, the main cause of marine a ship (14.8% of ship required repair, while 10.2%
accidents in 2009–2014, accounted for 23% of all of damaged ships could continue their voyage).
Ship or equipment
damage 4%
Machinery damage
7%
Stranding /
Hull failure or failure of grounding
watertight doors, ports, 21%
etc.
2%
Figure 1. Types of marine accidents (author’s findings based on 2009-2014 data (IMO-GISIS, 2015))
20%
18.7%
Thermal energy
source 14.8%
The percentage of
15%
accidents
Heat 10.2%
Heat 10%
transfer transfer 8.5%
to fuel to air
5.2%
5%
0%
Fire
A B C D E
Consequences of a fire
Flammable
Oxidizer Figure 4. Consequences of fires at sea (A – total damage of
material
Mixing of fuel a ship, B – a ship rendered unfit to proceed, C – a ship
with air remains fit to proceed, D – fatal accidents or missing
persons, E – wounded persons (author’s findings based on
Figure 3. Combustion triangle (Kordylewski, 2008) data for years 2009–2014 (IMO-GISIS, 2015))
Interrelationship diagrams are used for graphical Interrelationship diagrams are most often used
presentation of a set of factors affecting the final when a problem is complex (they facilitate the
result of a process (in this case – fire). They are determination of dependencies between various
mostly used to indicate source causes of specific factors) when it is very important to set forth
problems. The interrelation diagram effectively a proper sequence of actions or when we have to
illustrates mutual connections between particular find out if a given problem is a cause or an effect in
causes. In this approach, all elements of the dia- the global approach. Drawing an interrelationship
gram, although labeled as causes, may be consid- diagram should consist of the following phases:
ered both as causes and effects. Therefore, interre- description of a problem as a central node of the
lationship diagrams allow the definition of cause- diagram;
and-effect dependencies and indicate relations indication of causes of a problem, forming the
between particular causes of a problem (Figure 5). other nodes of the diagram;
2. Damage of machinery
Fire
5. Damage during
repairs e.g. caused
by welding
indication of interrelations between the causes complex problems (herein fires on board ships are
and connection of the related causes using ar- the key issue). Fire on board ship is caused by a
rows, determining an order of events (arrows number of factors divided here into six main groups
should connect causes to corresponding effects, labeled as “fire causes”: damage to electrical
as well as relations between causes; the arrows equipment and cables, damage to machinery (for
have a direction from a cause to an effect, indi- example, fire or explosion in the marine power
cating a sequence of actions and relations be- plant), damage to ship’s hull or its equipment,
tween a cause/factor and an effect/result); damage caused by external forces – force majeure,
quantification of the relations (each relation damage occurring during maintenance work /
should be assigned a weight, defined by repairs and spontaneous ignition of cargo. This
a number of points representing their strength of classification of marine fire causes is the author’s
interaction, e.g.: 6 pts. – strong relation, 3 pts. – proposal and may be modified.
medium relation, 1 pt. – weak relation) (Hamrol, The data from the conducted survey question-
2012, pp. 291–293); naire led to an observation that spontaneous igni-
ranking of the analyzed factors based on the tion of cargo has the greatest strength of connec-
number of points. tions (and interactions). It influences the greatest
number of fire causes (with a total of eight connect-
The problem herein considered is fire on board
ships, one of the most frequent marine accidents. ing lines, some bidirectional, see Figure 6). Dam-
On the basis of the conducted survey questionnaire age to electrical equipment and cables, is the se-
cond group regarding the strength of influence on
(174 people employed in the shipping industry,
the examined problem, with four direct relations:
a representative sample, according to (Sobczyk,
2013; Internetowy Podręcznik Statystyki, 2015)), machinery damage, cargo spontaneous ignition,
this author has attempted to group, systematize, and ship’s hull damage and damage during maintenance
and/or repairs. This interaction is caused mostly by
label fire causes on merchant ships and fishing
vessels. Table 1 divides the fire causes into six the factors such as material aging or human errors:
groups. It also contains factors influencing the flooding, cutting, negligence in maintenance or
repair work, lack of equipment maintenance, bad
causes of fire. Moreover, the strength of interaction
of the particular causes with the other causes and quality of safety arrangements, improper connec-
effects is indicated, using an interrelationship tions or design errors. The situation is similar in the
case of the following groups (Figure 6): damage
diagram presented in Figure 6.
during maintenance/repairs (five bidirectional
interactions) and damage to machinery
Summary and conclusions
(four bidirectional interactions). The group whose
The creation of interrelationship diagrams al- influence on the other groups is the weakest repre-
lows us to detect the most important problems and sents ‘damage caused by external factors’ that is
explain cause-and-effect relations in the case of force majeure. Paradoxically, this group is the least
“predictable” group of interactions. That is why the 6. GIRTLER, J., KUSZMIDER, S. & PLEWIŃSKI, L. (2003) Wy-
question arises: How much is safety at sea affected brane zagadnienia eksploatacji statków morskich w aspek-
cie bezpieczeństwa żeglugi. Szczecin: Wydawnictwo
by factors influencing the causes of fire? This Uczelniane WSM w Szczecinie.
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