Analisis Rekayasa

(SI-5101)

Tugas 4

Dibuat oleh :
Lakhsmi Dewi Wulandari 25018314

Dosen: Ir. Biemo W. Soemardi, MSE., Ph.D.

FAKULTAS TEKNIK SIPIL DAN LINGKUNGAN

PROGRAM STUDI MAGISTER TEKNIK SIPIL
KELOMPOK KEAHLIAN MANAJEMEN DAN REKAYASA KONSTRUKSI
2019
2.20. Dik : Class 201 = 7 Sophomores & 3 Juniors = 10 Students
Class 301 = 2 Sophomores & 8 Juniors = 10 Students
P201(S1)=7/10=0,7 ; P301(S2)=2/10=0,2
P201(J1)=3/10=0,3 ; P301(J2)=8/10=0,8
Dit : What is probability of :
a) a junior’s name on the first draw?
b) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a
sophomore’s name was drawn first?
c) a junior’s name on the second draw, given that a junior’s
name was drawn first?
d) a sophomore’s name on both draws?
e) a junior’s name on both draws?
f) one sophomore’s name and one junior’s name on the two
draws, regardless of order drawn?
Penye : * draw pertama adalah independent event sedangkan draw
kedua adalah dependet event
a) P201(J1) = 0,3 = 30%
b) P201(J1|S1) = P201(J1) = 0.3 = 30%
c) P(J2|J1) = P301(J2)= 0,8 = 80%
d) P(S1|S1) = P201(S1) x P201(S1) = 0,7 x 0,7 = 0,49 = 49%
e) P(J1J2) = P201(J1) x P(J2|J1) = 0,3 x 0,8 = 0,24 = 24%
f) P(S1J1) + P(J1S2) = (P(S1) X P(J1)) + (P(J1) X P(S2))
= (0,7 X 0,3) + (0,3 X 0,2) = 0,21 + 0,06
= 0,27 = 27%

2.23. Dik : P(adjusted) = 0,8 = 80% ; P(Not Adjusted) = 0,2 = 20%

P(pass|adjusted) = 0,9 = 90% ; P((pass|Not adjusted) = 0,2 = 20%
Dit : What is posterior probability that the lathe tool is properly
adjusted?
Penye : - P(pass and adjusted) = 0,9 x 0,8 = 0,72 = 72%
- P(pass and not adjusted) = 0,2 x 0,2 = 0,04 = 4%
- P(pass inspection) = 0,72 x 0,04 = 0,76 = 76%
𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑑𝑗𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑) 0,72
- P(adjusted|pass) = = = 0,947
𝑃(𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛) 0,76

So, posterior probability that the tool is properly adjusted

= 0,947 = 94,7%
2.24. Dik : data berupa tabel di soal 2.24. dan total waktu record = 5 tahun
Dit : a) What is the probability that the Killers will win every game next
year?
b) What is the probability that the Machos will win at least one game
next year?
c) What is the probability that Mama’s Boys will win exactly one
game next year?
d) What is the probability that the Killers will win fewer than two
games next year?
Penye : - P(MB over K) = 3/5 = 0,6 *i.e. MB = Mama’s Boy
- P(MB over M) = 4/5 = 0,8 K = Killers
- P(K over MB) = 2/5 = 0,4 M = Machos
- P(K over M) = 1/5 = 0,2
- P(M over MB) = 1/5 = 0,2
- P(M over K) = 4/5 = 0,8
a) P(K over MB and K Over M) = P(K Over MB) x P(K over M) = 0.4 x 0,2 = 0,08
b) [ P(M over MB) + P(M over K) ] - [ P(M over MB) x P(M over K ) ]
= (0,2 + 0,8) – (0,2 x 0,8) = 0,16
So, The probability that the Machos will win at least one game
next year = 1 – 0,16 = 0,84 = 84%
c) [ P(MB over K) x P(M over MB) ] + [ P(MB over M) x P(K over MB) ]
= (0,6 x 0,2) + (0,8 x 0,4) = 0,12 + 0,32 = 0,44 = 44%
d) P(K win < 2) = 1- P(K over MB and K Over M) = 1- 0,08 = 0,92 =92%

2.33. Dik : P(Gary Schwartz Sales) = 70% = 0,7

Number of trials (n) = 4
Dit : a) P(3 Sales ) = …?
b) P(4 Sales ) = …?
Penye : * Binominal Distribution
𝑛!
Probability of r successes in n trials = 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟
𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!
n = number of trials = 4
p = the probability of successes on any single trial = 0,7
r = the number of successes (3 & 4)
q = 1 – p = 1 – 0,7 = 0,3 (Probability of Failure)
 4! 4∗3∗2∗1
a) P(3 Sales ) = 0,73 0,34−3 = 0,73 0,31
3!(4−3)! 3∗2∗1
= 4 x 0,343 x 0,3 = 0,4116 = 41,16%
4!
b) P(4 Sales ) = 0,74 0,34−4 = 0,74 = 0,2401 = 24,01%
4!(4−4)!

2.37. Dik : μ = 450°F

σ = 25°F
Dit : a) if X = 475°F, berapa P(X>475) = …?
b) P(460-470) = …?
Penye : a)

𝑋− μ 475− 450 450 475

Z= = =1
σ 25
Karena standar deviasinya positif (z = 1) maka berdasarkan tabel
2.9 (standardized normal distribution function) didapatkan
P(x=475) = 0,84134 (dengan z = 1), P(X>475) = 1- 0,84134 = 0,15866
= 15,866%, jadi probabilitas oven lebih panas dari 475°F dan
menyebabkan core menjadi defective = 15,866%
b)

450 X1 X2

𝑋1− μ 460− 450 10

Z460 = = = = 0,4 berdasarkan tabel 2.9 dengan Z
σ 25 25
= 0,4 , maka P(460) = 0,65542 = 65,542%
𝑋2− μ 470− 450 20
Z470 = = = = 0,8 berdasarkan tabel 2.9 dengan Z
σ 25 25
= 0,8 , maka P(460) = 0,78814 = 78,814%
- Jadi P(460-470) = 0,78814 – 0,65542 = 0,1327 = 13,272%
2.39. Dik : μ = 87000 packages
σ = 4000 packages
Dit : P(x<81000) = …?

Jawab :

𝑋− μ 81000− 87000 6000

Z= = 81000 =-
87000 = -1,5 berdasarkan tabel 2.9 dengan
σ 4000 4000
Z = 1,5 , maka P(81000) = 0,93319. Jadi, P(x<81000) = 1-0,93319 =
0,06681 = 6,681%

2.42. Dik : μ = 40 weeks

σ = 5 weeks
Dit : a) Berapa P(X<40 weeks) = …?
b) Berapa P(x>43) = …?
c) Jika Probability terlambat = 5%, berapa waktu yang dibutuhkan
(X) = …?
Penye : a)

40 weeks

𝑋− μ 40−40 0
Z= = = = 0 berdasarkan tabel 2.9 dengan Z = 0, maka
σ 5 5
P(40) = 0,5. Jadi, P(x<40) = 1- 0,5 = 0,5 = 50%
 b)
40 43

𝑋− μ 43−40 3
Z= = = = 0,6 berdasarkan tabel 2.9 dengan Z = 0,6 ,
σ 5 5
maka P(43) = 0,72575. Jadi, P(x>43) = 1- 0,72575 = 0,27425 = 27,425%
c) Jika probability terlambat 5%, maka 95% project selesai tepat
waktu. P(x≤…) = 0,95.
- Jika probability = 0,95, berdasarkan tabel 2.9 maka nilai Z
yang paling mendekati adalah (Z = 1,64 dengan P(1,64) =
0,94950), maka
𝑋− 40
- 1,64 =
5
5∗1,64
X= = 48,2. Jadi waktu yang dibutuhkan jika probability
40
project terlambat = 5% = 0,05 adalah 48,2 weeks

2.46. Dik : S = Steroid Present

N = Steroid Not Present
TP = Test Is Positive For Steroids
TN = Test Is Negative For Steroids
P(S) = 0,02 ; P(N) = 0,98
P(TP|S) = 0,95 ; P(TN|S) = 0,05
P(TP|N) = 0,10 ; P(TN|N) = 0,90
Dit : P(S|TP) =…?
𝑃(𝑇𝑃|𝑆) ∗𝑃(𝑆)
Penye : P(S|TP) =
𝑃(𝑇𝑃|𝑆) ∗𝑃(𝑆)−𝑃(𝑇𝑃|𝑁) ∗𝑃(𝑁)
0,95∗0,02
= = 0,16 jadi, probabilitas orang
0,95∗0,02−0,10∗0,98
tersebut menggunakan steroid adalah = 0,16= 16%

2.49. Dik : S = Successful Restaurant

U = Unsuccessful Restaurant
PS = Model Predict Successful Restaurant
PU = Model Predict Unsuccessful Restaurant
 P(S) = 0,70 ; P(N) = 0,30
P(PS|S) = 0,90 ; P(PU|S) = 0,05
P(PS|U) = 0,10 ; P(PU|U) = 0,90
Dit : P(S|PS) = …?

𝑃(𝑃𝑆|𝑆) ∗𝑃(𝑆)
Jawab : P(S|PS) =
𝑃(𝑃𝑆|𝑆) ∗𝑃(𝑆)−𝑃(𝑃𝑆|𝑈) ∗𝑃(𝑈)
0,9∗0,7
= = 0,91
0,9∗0,7−0,2∗0,3
Jadi, jika model tersebut digunakan di lokasi yang baru dan
digunakan untuk memprediksi restoran akan success, maka
probabilitas restoran secara actual success adalah 0,91 = 91%

2.50. Dik : P(defaulted loans) = 0,2

P(nondefaulted loans) = 0,8
P(reject|defaulted loans) = 0,9
P(approve|nondefaulted loans) = 0,7
Dit : a) P(reject|non defaulted loans) = …?
b) P(non defaulted loans|rejected) = …?
Penye : a) P(reject|non defaulted loans) = 1 - P(reject|defaulted loans) = 1 – 0,9 = 0,1 =
10%
𝑃(𝑟|𝑁𝐿)∗𝑃(𝑁𝐿)
b) P(NL|r) =
𝑃(𝑟|𝑁𝐿)∗𝑃(𝑁𝐿)−𝑃(𝑟|𝐷𝐿)∗𝑃(𝐷𝐿)
0,3∗0,8
= = 0,57 = 57%
0,3∗0,8 − 0,9∗0,2