Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 297 views

    Problems On Poisson Distribution

    Uploaded by

    Momanyi Ivy
    The document provides examples and problems involving the Poisson distribution. It examines the probability of occurrences of events with a known average rate over different time intervals, including traffic accidents at an intersection, defective parts at a factory, and accident-free days. For each scenario, it calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring using the Poisson distribution and compares the results to approximations using the binomial or Poisson distributions when applicable.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Problems On Poisson Distribution

    Uploaded by

    Momanyi Ivy
    297 views4 pages
    The document provides examples and problems involving the Poisson distribution. It examines the probability of occurrences of events with a known average rate over different time intervals, including traffic accidents at an intersection, defective parts at a factory, and accident-free days. For each scenario, it calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring using the Poisson distribution and compares the results to approximations using the binomial or Poisson distributions when applicable.

    Original Description:

    Calculation of examples

    Original Title

    Problems on poisson distribution

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The document provides examples and problems involving the Poisson distribution. It examines the probability of occurrences of events with a known average rate over different time intervals, including traffic accidents at an intersection, defective parts at a factory, and accident-free days. For each scenario, it calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring using the Poisson distribution and compares the results to approximations using the binomial or Poisson distributions when applicable.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    297 views4 pages

    Problems On Poisson Distribution

    Uploaded by

    Momanyi Ivy
    The document provides examples and problems involving the Poisson distribution. It examines the probability of occurrences of events with a known average rate over different time intervals, including traffic accidents at an intersection, defective parts at a factory, and accident-free days. For each scenario, it calculates the probability of a given number of events occurring using the Poisson distribution and compares the results to approximations using the binomial or Poisson distributions when applicable.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    STAT 400 Stepanov

    UIUC
    Examples for 2.6 Dalpiaz

    Poisson Distribution:
    X = the number of occurrences of a particular event in an interval of time or space.

    P( X = x ) =
    λx⋅ e −λ , x = 0, 1, 2, 3, … .
    x!
    E( X ) = λ, Var( X ) = λ.

    Table III ( pp. 580 – 582 ) gives P( X ≤ x )

    1. Traffic accidents at a particular intersection follow Poisson distribution with


    an average rate of 1.4 per week.
    a) What is the probability that the next week is accident-free?

    1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4
    1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. P(X = 0) = ≈ 0.2466.
    0!

    b) What is the probability that there will be exactly 3 accidents next week?

    1.4 3 ⋅ e − 1.4
    1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. P(X = 3) = ≈ 0.1128.
    3!

    c) What is the probability that there will be at most 2 accidents next week?

    1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4.
    P(X ≤ 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

    1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4 1.4 1 ⋅ e − 1.4 1.4 2 ⋅ e − 1.4


    = + +
    0! 1! 2!
    ≈ 0.2466 + 0.3452 + 0.2417 = 0.8335.
    d) What is the probability that there will be at least 2 accidents during the next
    two weeks?

    2 weeks ⇒ λ = 2.8.

     2.8 0 ⋅ e − 2.8 2.8 1 ⋅ e − 2.8 


    P( X ≥ 2 ) = 1 – [ P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 ) ] = 1−  + 
     0 ! 1! 
    ≈ 1 – [ 0.0608 + 0.1703 ] = 0.7689.

    e) What is the probability that there will be exactly 5 accidents during the next
    four weeks?

    5.6 5 ⋅ e − 5.6
    4 weeks ⇒ λ = 5.6. P(X = 5) = ≈ 0.1697.
    5!

    f) What is the probability that there will be exactly 2 accidents tomorrow?

    0.2 2 ⋅ e − 0.2
    1 day ⇒ λ = 0.2. P(X = 2) = ≈ 0.0164.
    2!

    g) What is the probability that the next accident will not occur for three days?

    0.6 0 ⋅ e − 0.6
    3 days ⇒ λ = 0.6. P(X = 0) = ≈ 0.5488.
    0!

    h) What is the probability that there will be exactly three accident-free weeks
    during the next eight weeks?

    “Success” = an accident-free week

    1.4 0 ⋅ e − 1.4
    1 week ⇒ λ = 1.4. p = P ( “Success” ) = P ( X = 0 ) = ≈ 0.2466.
    0!

    P ( exactly 3 accident-free weeks in 8 weeks ) = 8 C 3 ⋅ 0.2466 3 ⋅ 0.7534 5 ≈ 0.20384.


    ( Binomial distribution )
    i) What is the probability that there will be exactly five accident-free days
    during the next week?

    “Success” = an accident-free day

    0.2 0 ⋅ e − 0.2
    1 day ⇒ λ = 0.2. p = P ( “Success” ) = P ( X = 0 ) = ≈ 0.81873.
    0!

    P ( exactly 5 accident-free days in 7 days ) = 7 C 5 ⋅ 0.81873 5 ⋅ 0.18127 2 ≈ 0.25385.


    ( Binomial distribution )

    When n is large ( n ≥ 20 ) and p is small ( p ≤ 0.05 ) and n ⋅ p ≤ 5,


    Binomial probabilities can be approximated by Poisson probabilities.
    For this, set λ = n ⋅ p.

    2. Suppose the defective rate at a particular factory is 1%. Suppose 50 parts


    were selected from the daily output of parts. Let X denote the number of
    defective parts in the sample.
    a) Find the probability that the sample contains exactly 2 defective parts.

     50 
    P ( X = 2 ) =   ⋅ (0.01) 2 ⋅ (0.99 ) 48 ≈ 0.075618.
    2

    b) Use Poisson approximation to find the probability that the sample contains
    exactly 2 defective parts.

    λ = n ⋅ p = 0.5.

    0.5 2 ⋅ e − 0.5
    P( X = 2 ) = ≈ 0.075816.
    2!
    c) Find the probability that the sample contains at most 1 defective part.

    P( X ≤ 1 ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 )
     50   50 
    =   ⋅ (0.01) 0 ⋅ (0.99 ) 50 +   ⋅ (0.01) 1 ⋅ (0.99 ) 49 ≈ 0.910565.
    0 1

    d) Use Poisson approximation to find the probability that the sample contains
    at most 1defective part.

    P( X ≤ 1 ) = P( X = 0 ) + P( X = 1 )

    0.5 0 ⋅ e − 0.5 0.5 1 ⋅ e − 0.5


    = + ≈ 0.909796.
    0! 1!

    You might also like