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Poisson Distribution and Traffic Applications

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete, independent, and random events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space. It can be used to model things like vehicle arrivals at an intersection or the time gaps between vehicles. The probability of x events occurring is calculated based on the average rate of occurrences. This distribution is useful for traffic and transportation applications like determining the likelihood of traffic backups, gaps between vehicles exceeding a certain time, or vehicles pulling out onto a road colliding with oncoming traffic.

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228 views2 pages

Poisson Distribution and Traffic Applications

The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a number of discrete, independent, and random events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space. It can be used to model things like vehicle arrivals at an intersection or the time gaps between vehicles. The probability of x events occurring is calculated based on the average rate of occurrences. This distribution is useful for traffic and transportation applications like determining the likelihood of traffic backups, gaps between vehicles exceeding a certain time, or vehicles pulling out onto a road colliding with oncoming traffic.

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Momanyi Ivy
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Poisson Distribution and Traffic Applications

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that applies to the number of occurrences of
some event over a specified interval, usually time, but may also be some other unit (area, volume, etc.)

The random variable x is the number of occurrences of an event over the specified interval. The
occurrences must be random, independent of each other, and uniformly distributed over the interval.

𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝑥
The probability of an event occurring x times over a given interval is: P (𝑥) = , µ is the average
𝑥!
number of occurrences per interval.

Example 1: There is an average of 2.25 births per day at a local hospital. What is the probability that on
any given day there are a) no births, b) 3 births, c) at least three births?

Example 2: A shopping mall has an incident of shoplifting (on average) once every three hours. The mall
is open from 10:00 a.m. to 9 p.m. What is the probability that during a single business day there is/are a)
at least one shoplifting incident, b) no shoplifting incidents?

Traffic Application: Vehicle Arrivals

The number of vehicles likely to arrive at a given location during a specified time period is an application
of the Poisson distribution. If λ is the average vehicle flow rate (veh/time), t is the desired time period,
(𝜆𝑡)𝑛 𝑒 −(𝜆𝑡)
and n is the number of vehicles arriving during the interval then P (𝑛) = 𝑛!
, where λt is the
average number of arrivals during time period t.

Transportation Example 1: A traffic study counted 650 cars arriving at a certain intersection during
rush hour. Intersection geometry allows seven cars to back up at a red light. If the light stays red for 35
seconds, what is the probability that the platoon becomes too long for the intersection?

Traffic Application: Time Gap between Vehicle Arrivals

Traffic engineers refer to the time gap between two moving vehicles as “headway”. Since a certain
amount of time is needed to safely pull out into traffic it is important that engineers understand the
distribution of headways, h in a stream of moving traffic.

During a gap in traffic there are no vehicle arrivals (n = 0). The Poisson distribution can be used to
evaluate the probability of a gap time exceeding a certain value, P(h > t). If λ is the average vehicle flow
rate (veh/time) and t is the gap time then λt is the average number of arrivals during time t. Using the
(𝜆𝑡)0 𝑒 −(𝜆𝑡)
arrival equation above 𝑃(0) = 0!
= 𝑒 −(𝜆𝑡) . The probability of a gap time (headway) exceeding a
given time period t is therefore 𝑃(ℎ ≥ 𝑡) = 𝑒 −(𝜆𝑡) . This is known as the negative exponential distribution
with continuous random variable t.

Transportation Example 2: Data for a road shows that rush hour traffic volume is 1500 vehicles per
hour (Poisson distribution). How many of the 1500 gaps are expected to be 4 seconds or longer during
rush hour?
Transportation Example 3: A vehicle pulls out onto a highway that has a flow rate of 300 veh/hr
(Poisson distributed). The driver does not look for oncoming traffic. Road conditions and vehicle speeds
on the highway are such that it takes 1.7 seconds for the oncoming vehicle to stop once the breaks are
applied. If driver perception/reaction time is 2.5 seconds what is the probability that the vehicle pulling
out will get in an accident with an oncoming vehicle?

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