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Decision Tree

The document outlines a decision tree for Ski Right considering whether to build a new ski lift based on the results of a survey and the potential outcomes of building or not building. It shows the probabilities and values associated with good or bad decisions based on positive or negative survey results. The optimal decisions maximize the expected value at each chance node.

Uploaded by

Suvid Sharma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
28 views

Decision Tree

The document outlines a decision tree for Ski Right considering whether to build a new ski lift based on the results of a survey and the potential outcomes of building or not building. It shows the probabilities and values associated with good or bad decisions based on positive or negative survey results. The optimal decisions maximize the expected value at each chance node.

Uploaded by

Suvid Sharma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Freemark Abbey Winery (Abridged)

Harvest

34200 34200

0.5
Storm
2
39240 0

Do Not Harvest

0 39240

0.5
No Storm

0
34200

0.4
Botrystis
67200
67200 67200

Wholesale
24000
41280 24000 24000

0.6
No Botrystis Bulk
1 12000
0 24000 12000 12000

Sell Grapes
12000
12000 12000

0.4
GW
42000
42000 42000

0.4
LW
36000
37200 36000 36000

0.2
Low Acid
30000
30000 30000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2
1 0 0T 0
2 0 0E 2
3 2E 2
4 2E 3
5 3T 0
6 3D 3
7 0 6T 0
8 0 6T 0
9 0 6T 0
10 4T 0
11 4T 0
12 4T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 0 0 0 12 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1
3 4 0 0 0 22 5 1
5 6 0 0 0 12 9 1
10 11 12 0 0 32 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 13 1
7 8 9 0 0 17 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 13 1
Blake Electronics

MAI

Survey
1
0 500000
I&K

0
2
700000

NP

0
No Survey
2
0 700000

IP

0
0.7
Successful Venture
1400000
IP 1400000 1400000

0 800000 0.3
0.5 Unsuccessful Venture
Positive -600000
1 -600000 -600000
0 800000

NP
-100000
-100000 -100000

0.4
500000 Successful Venture
1400000
IP 1400000 1400000

0 200000 0.6
0.5 Unsuccessful Venture
Negative -600000
1 -600000 -600000
0 200000

NP
-100000
-100000 -100000

0.87
Successful Venture
1200000
IP 1200000 1200000

0 940000 0.13
0.62 Unsuccessful Venture
Positive -800000
1 -800000 -800000
0 940000

NP
-300000
-300000 -300000

0.14
468800 Successful Venture
1200000
IP 1200000 1200000

0 -520000 0.86
0.38 Unsuccessful Venture
Negative -800000
2 -800000 -800000
0 -300000

NP
-300000
-300000 -300000

0
0

0.6
Successful Venture
1500000
1500000 1500000

700000 0.4
Unsuccessful Venture
-500000
-500000 -500000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2 1
1 0 0D 2 7
2 0 0D 2 3
3 0 2T 0 0
4 0 2E 2 5
5 4T 0 0
6 4T 0 0
7 0 1E 2 9
8 0 1E 2 19
9 7D 2 11
10 7D 2 15
11 0 9E 2 13
12 0 9T 0 0
13 11 T 0 0
14 11 T 0 0
15 0 10 E 2 17
16 0 10 T 0 0
17 15 T 0 0
18 15 T 0 0
19 8D 2 21
20 8D 2 23
21 0 19 E 2 27
22 0 19 T 0 0
23 0 20 E 2 25
24 0 20 T 0 0
25 23 T 0 0
26 23 T 0 0
27 21 T 0 0
28 21 T 0 0
S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 0 0 0 47 1 1
8 0 0 0 30 5 1
4 0 0 0 65 5 1
0 0 0 0 62 9 1
6 0 0 0 69 9 1
0 0 0 0 67 13 1
0 0 0 0 72 13 1
10 0 0 0 15 9 1
20 0 0 0 45 9 1
12 0 0 0 8 13 1
16 0 0 0 23 13 1
14 0 0 0 4 17 1
0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 2 21 1
0 0 0 0 7 21 1
18 0 0 0 19 17 1
0 0 0 0 27 17 1
0 0 0 0 17 21 1
0 0 0 0 22 21 1
22 0 0 0 38 13 1
24 0 0 0 53 13 1
28 0 0 0 34 17 1
0 0 0 0 42 17 1
26 0 0 0 49 17 1
0 0 0 0 57 17 1
0 0 0 0 47 21 1
0 0 0 0 52 21 1
0 0 0 0 32 21 1
0 0 0 0 37 21 1
Ski Right
0.6
Positive

Survey

0 22920

0.4
Negative

0
1
22920

Build

No Surey
1
0 19000

Not Build

0
0.9
GD
55000
Build 55000 55000

0 45000 0.1
BD
-45000
-45000 -45000
1
45000 0.9
GD
25000
Not Build 25000 25000

0 21000 0.1
BD
-15000
-15000 -15000

0.12
GD
55000
Build 55000 55000

0 -33000 0.88
BD
-45000
-45000 -45000
2
-10200 0.12
GD
25000
Not Build 25000 25000
0 -10200 0.88
BD
-15000
-15000 -15000

0.59
GD
60000
60000 60000

19000 0.41
BD
-40000
-40000 -40000

0.59
GD
30000
30000 30000

13600 0.41
BD
-10000
-10000 -10000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2
1 0 0E 2
2 0 0D 2
3 0 2E 2
4 0 2E 2
5 3T 0
6 3T 0
7 4T 0
8 4T 0
9 1D 2
10 1D 2
11 0 9E 2
12 0 9E 2
13 11 T 0
14 11 T 0
15 12 T 0
16 12 T 0
17 0 10 E 2
18 0 10 E 2
19 17 T 0
20 17 T 0
21 18 T 0
22 18 T 0
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
1 2 0 0 0 34 1 1
9 10 0 0 0 19 5 1
3 4 0 0 0 49 5 1
5 6 0 0 0 44 9 1
7 8 0 0 0 54 9 1
0 0 0 0 0 42 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 47 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 52 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 57 13 1
11 12 0 0 0 9 9 1
17 18 0 0 0 29 9 1
13 14 0 0 0 4 13 1
15 16 0 0 0 14 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 2 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 12 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1
19 20 0 0 0 24 13 1
21 22 0 0 0 34 13 1
0 0 0 0 0 22 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 27 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 32 17 1
0 0 0 0 0 37 17 1
0.3
HD

200000

0.5
LP MD

0 86000 100000

0.2
LD

-120000

0.3
HD

90000

0.5
SP MD
1
86000 0 48000 50000

0.2
LD

-20000

0.3
HD

0.5
NP MD

0 0 0

0.2
LD

0
200000
200000

100000
100000

-120000
-120000

90000
90000

50000
50000

-20000
-20000

0
0

0
0

0
0
ID Name Value Prob Pred
0 TreePlan 0 0 0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 0 0
4 1
5 1
6 1
7 2
8 2
9 2
10 3
11 3
12 3
Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
D 3 1 2 3 0 0 22 1 1
E 3 4 5 6 0 0 7 5 1
E 3 7 8 9 0 0 22 5 1
E 3 10 11 12 0 0 37 5 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 9 1
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 9 1

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