Forex Management PR
Forex Management PR
Forex Management PR
Project Report
Submitted By:
SAHIL ANAND
Regd. No.: _______________
E-mail ID: ________________________
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abbreviations 4
Acknowledgment 5
I. Introduction 6
a) What is Forex? 6
c) Development in India 7
e) Forex Management 9
1) Interest rate 12
2) Employment outlook 13
4) Trade Balance 14
15
2) Authorised Dealers in Foreign Exchange
1) Balance of Payment 18
3) Economic Exposure 29
XII Conclusion 35
ABBREVIATIONS
US United States
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The project is about emerging scope of the professionals in the field of Forex
Management. Forex Management is intended as a surreptitious way of managing
the funds the Country. India is an emerging economy where opportunities for the
investment are too wide or the route from where the funds must be entered in to the
economy mainly the approval route. So, we are as professional are the guide for
those foreigners who are interested to make investment. Various laws are applicable
on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) where we can practice or advice for foreign direct
investment.
-- Sahil Anand
1. INTRODUCTION
Forex, an acronym for Foreign exchange, is the largest financial market in the world
with an estimated $ 1.5 trillion in currencies traded daily, Forex provide income to
millions of traders and large bank worldwide.
Forex, unlike other financial markets, is not tied to an actual stock exchange.
Currencies are traded directly through network of banks and brokers by an electronic
network or the telephone. The Foreign Exchange market is therefore also referred to
have an “interbank” or “over the counter (OTC)” market.
When the term Foreign Exchange Marketcome in between questions we get asked
all the time are :-
c. Development in India?
a. What is Forex?
Forex is the international market for the free trade of currencies. Traders place
orders to buy one currency with another currency. For example, a trader may want to
buy Indian Rupees with US dollars, and will use the Forex market to do this.
The Forex market is the world's largest financial market. Over $4 trillion dollars’
worth of currency are traded each day. The amount of money traded in a week is
bigger than the entire annual GDP of the United States.
The Forex Market is a global, worldwide - decentralized financial market for trading
currencies. Financial centres around the world function as anchors of trading
between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with
the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market determines the relative
values of different currencies.
As the world continued to tear itself apart in the Second World War, there was an
urgent need for financial stability. International negotiators from 29 countries met in
Bretton Woods and agreed to a new economic system where, amongst other things,
exchange rates would be fixed.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established under the Bretton Woods
agreement, and started to operate in 1949. All exchange rates changes above 1%
had to be approved by the IMF, which had the effect of freezing these rates.
By the late 1960's the fixed exchange rate system started to break down, due to a
number of international political and economic factors. Finally, in 1971, President
Nixon stopped the US dollar being converted directly to gold, as part of a set of
measures designed to stem the collapse of the US economy. This was known as the
Nixon shock, and lead to floating rate currency markets being established in early
1973. By 1976, all major currencies had floating exchange rates.
With floating rates, currencies could be traded freely, and the price changed based
on market forces. The modern Forex market was born.
c. Development in India
However, the currency composition of turnover has not change significantly the US $
was on one side of 89% of all transaction followed by the Euro (37%), the Yen (20%)
of global turnover, followed by US $/Yen with 17% and US $/pound stealing with
14%. The percentage share of the Indian rupee, though miniscule in comparison,
has almost trebled to constitute 0.3% of the total daily turnover.
The Indian Forex market has widened and deepened since the 1990 on account of
implementation of various majors recommended by the high level committee on
balance of payment in 1993 (Chairman Dr. C Rangrajan), the expert group of foreign
exchange market in India in 1995 (Chaiman Shri O.P. Sodhani) and the committee
on capital accounting convertibility in 1997 (Chairman Shri S.S. Tarapore). With the
transition to a market – determined exchange rate system in March 1993 and the
subsequent gradual liberalization of restrictions on various external transactions,
ensuring orderly conditions in the Forex market in India has become one of the key
objectives. The RBI has undertaken various majors towards development of spot as
well as forward segment o foreign exchange market. As a result, the average gross
daily turnover increased to US $ 12.1 Billion in 2004-05 (April to March) from US $
3.7 billion in 1996 to 1997. The top 30 banks in India account for approximately 90%
of the overall turnover in the market.
India’s share in worldwide foreign exchange market turnover has grown to 0.9% in
2007, marking a three-fold jump from 0.3% in 2004.
This is the fastest increase in market share for any country in the world, according to
data compiled by Switzerland-based Bank for International Settlement (BIS).
The growth of India among the emerging nations was notable and reflects the efforts
of Indian authorities in recent times to ease control on capital movements.
There are many different players in the Forex market. Some trade to make profits,
others trade to hedge their risks and others simply need foreign currency to pay for
goods and services. The participants include the following:
Investment banks
Pension funds
Insurance companies
International corporations
e. Forex Management
1. generation,
2. use and
3. storage
So, all the functions like generation, use and storage of the foreign currency must be
managed by the regulators.
1. Its huge trading volume representing the largest asset class in the world
leading to high liquidity;
3. Its continuous operation i.e., 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading
from 20:15 GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday;
5. The low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed
income; and
6. The use of leverage to enhance profit and loss margins and with respect to
account size.
A. When a company is importing goods from another country, it will usually give up
its domestic currency in the foreign exchange market to get the foreign currency
needed to pay for the import. Resulting, demand for the foreign currency
increases, supply in the foreign exchange market of the home currency
increases.
B. Companies receiving payment in foreign currencies need to convert these
payments to their home currency. For Example, A Japanese components
manufacturer receives payment in US$ from their US customer; the
manufacturer may want to convert it so it can be spent in Japan.
D. Companies investing spare cash for short terms in money market accounts. For
Example, US Company has dollars that they want to invest short term, but the
interest rate is only 2% in US but 12% in South Korea. So the company changes
dollars into won and invests in the money market of South Korea. Rate of return
will depend on the interest rate and the value of the Korean won at the time they
exchange the won back into dollars and bring back their money to the U.S.
I. An Indian industrialist imports raw material from Malaysia for his plant under a
letter of credit arrangement provided by his Bank.
Forex management being involved in all the trade and non-trade transactions
involving Forex, it is essential to have a broad idea of international banking and
trading practices. Since the transactions are taking place among counter parties
from different countries, a standardized format of the documentation is used to
minimize errors.
From the above illustrations, we can see that all individuals and corporate firm are
required to deal with the Foreign exchange. So, the scope is so much wide.
Currency changes affect you, whether you are actively trading in the foreign
exchange market, planning your next vacation, shopping online for goods from
another country—or just buying food and staples imported from abroad.
Like any commodity, the value of a currency rises and falls in response to the forces
of supply and demand. Everyone needs to spend, and consumer spending directly
affects the money supply (and vice versa). The supply and demand of a country’s
money is reflected in its foreign exchange rate.
1. Interest Rates
"Benchmark" interest rates from central banks influence the retail rates financial
institutions charge customers to borrow money. For instance, if the economy is
under-performing, central banks may lower interest rates to make it cheaper to
borrow; this often boosts consumer spending, which may help expand the economy.
To slow the rate of inflation in an overheated economy, central banks raise the
benchmark so borrowing is more expensive.
Interest rates are of particular concern to investors seeking a balance between yield
returns and safety of funds. When interest rates go up, so do yields for assets
denominated in that currency; this leads to increased demand by investors and
causes an increase in the value of the currency in question. If interest rates go
down, this may lead to a flight from that currency to another.
The interest rate is the cost associated with borrowing money; that is, the price of
credit. In a loan transaction, the lender gives up the immediate use of funds to the
borrower. In return, the lender receives compensation (interest), in addition to the
eventual full repayment of the loan amount. Interest is expressed as a percentage of
the loan amount. Setting interest rates is the primary monetary policy tool available
to central banks to manage open market economies.
2. Employment Outlook
Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it occurs during times of recession and is a sign
of economic stagnation. Central banks often lower interest rates to boost consumer
spending in hopes of reversing this trend.
4. Trade Balance
A country's balance of trade is the total value of its exports, minus the total value of
its imports. If this number is positive, the country is said to have a favourable
balance of trade. If the difference is negative, the country has a trade gap, or trade
deficit.
Trade balance impacts supply and demand for a currency. When a country has a
trade surplus, demand for its currency increases because foreign buyers must
exchange more of their home currency in order to buy its goods. A trade deficit, on
the other hand, increases the supply of a country’s currency and could lead to
devaluation if supply greatly exceeds demand.
With interest rates in several major economies already very low (and set to stay that
way for the time being), central bank and government officials are now resorting to
other, less commonly used measures to directly intervene in the market and
influence economic growth.
For example, quantitative easing is being used to increase the money supply within
an economy. It involves the purchase of government bonds and other assets from
financial institutions to provide the banking system with additional liquidity.
Quantitative easing is considered a last resort when the more typical response—
lowering interest rates—fails to boost the economy. It comes with some risk:
increasing the supply of a currency could result in a devaluation of the currency.
6. Political conditions
Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a
profound effect on currency markets.
All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the
new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a
nation's economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in Pakistan
and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a
country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is
perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one
country in a region may spur positive/negative interest in a neighbouring country
and, in the process, affect its currency.
As we have discussed earlier that the Forex market in India is regulated by Reserve
Bank of India. Key participants in this market are Authorized money changers and
dealers.
A specimen of daily transactions for the month of September ‘2011 is given below:
(US$ Millio
Spot Forward ForwardCancellation Spot Forward ForwardCancellation Spot Swap Forward Spot Swap Forwar
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Purchases
Sep.
1, 2011+
Sep.
2, 2011 4,485 1,432 1,028 430 974 734 5,751 5,849 531 3,047 1,964 230
Sep.
5, 2011 2,027 1,003 906 90 510 551 5,586 3,466 495 3,138 826 105
Sep.
6, 2011 2,608 1,738 908 213 853 747 9,055 7,503 598 5,238 1,975 173
Sep.
7, 2011 2,964 1,341 774 147 695 503 8,601 5,912 623 3,587 1,685 66
Sep.
8, 2011 2,203 1,649 953 180 471 469 6,615 6,066 963 2,807 1,459 188
Sep.
9, 2011 2,341 2,266 873 142 562 526 7,102 6,157 696 3,568 989 64
Sep.
12, 2011 2,687 2,391 1,005 153 1,041 524 9,929 9,242 560 4,552 1,852 69
Sep.
13, 2011 2,603 2,471 1,145 68 801 521 8,789 8,251 391 3,827 1,170 126
Sep.
14, 2011 2,056 2,108 1,067 173 552 456 8,465 5,979 689 3,724 1,714 143
Sep.
15, 2011 2,740 1,849 1,139 205 533 435 7,739 5,711 799 3,526 1,557 196
Sep.
16, 2011 2,230 1,535 744 90 239 279 7,236 5,904 671 3,156 1,863 78
Sep.
19, 2011 2,772 2,064 944 167 254 410 8,091 7,883 654 3,140 1,800 115
Sep.
20, 2011 2,310 1,790 846 124 651 307 8,999 8,794 810 3,518 1,324 103
Sep.
21, 2011 3,491 1,812 1,007 312 483 262 9,589 8,192 1,119 3,108 1,363 75
Sep.
22, 2011 2,227 3,713 2,065 128 425 380 10,240 8,547 1,029 3,604 1,501 216
Sep.
23, 2011 2,159 2,743 1,434 81 641 581 9,732 7,273 927 2,905 1,474 160
Sep.
26, 2011 2,892 2,729 1,669 257 752 624 9,485 7,156 848 4,065 2,022 371
Sep.
27, 2011 3,323 3,223 2,697 223 549 621 9,868 7,889 955 3,513 2,472 335
Sep.
28, 2011 3,626 2,782 1,930 229 361 342 8,872 8,275 1,237 3,798 2,303 149
Sep.
29, 2011 3,743 2,472 1,826 218 566 534 8,173 8,722 1,806 5,165 2,788 491
Sep. 2011+
30,
Sales
Sep.
1, 2011+
Sep.
2, 2011 3,635 1,908 1,056 427 1,265 815 6,108 7,149 718 3,028 1,995 229
Sep.
5, 2011 1,580 1,896 610 87 657 500 5,415 4,052 508 2,825 778 230
Sep.
6, 2011 3,405 1,838 736 212 1,083 693 8,829 8,450 964 4,863 2,023 169
Sep.
7, 2011 2,625 2,080 656 146 934 588 8,354 6,520 827 3,236 1,838 44
Sep.
8, 2011 2,231 1,607 717 140 491 373 6,651 6,793 979 2,825 1,554 194
Sep.
9, 2011 2,864 1,819 576 138 612 498 7,602 6,606 856 3,512 1,045 64
Sep.
12, 2011 2,398 3,143 737 154 1,213 541 9,831 10,089 757 4,304 1,956 68
Sep.
13, 2011 2,695 2,881 658 71 822 603 8,295 9,601 734 3,824 1,217 148
Sep.
14, 2011 2,285 2,474 569 174 573 416 7,940 7,338 813 3,677 1,781 142
Sep.
15, 2011 2,433 2,397 589 201 519 454 7,480 7,101 1,033 3,567 1,637 211
Sep.
16, 2011 2,014 2,371 598 90 280 305 7,122 6,670 766 3,127 1,964 80
Sep.
19, 2011 2,413 2,894 570 168 407 455 7,964 8,279 911 3,014 1,937 60
Sep.
20, 2011 2,419 2,769 525 125 615 415 8,484 10,892 1,533 3,554 1,525 108
Sep.
21, 2011 2,067 3,616 683 329 546 369 9,641 9,227 1,545 3,086 1,549 55
Sep.
22, 2011 2,280 5,203 943 129 616 369 9,379 9,284 1,777 3,399 1,665 214
Sep.
23, 2011 2,614 2,713 1,224 90 753 526 9,390 8,432 1,237 2,813 1,251 527
Sep.
26, 2011 3,236 2,864 1,791 261 787 619 9,549 8,353 1,005 3,921 2,443 175
Sep.
27, 2011 3,058 2,938 2,737 218 615 561 9,246 8,109 1,402 3,488 2,764 288
Sep.
28, 2011 2,956 2,868 1,871 236 395 328 8,743 7,276 1,502 3,783 2,572 142
Sep.
29, 2011 3,952 2,050 1,706 201 641 577 7,836 10,334 2,082 5,245 3,216 422
Sep. 2011+
30,
+ : Market Closed.
Note: Data relate to sales and purchases of foreign exchange on account of merchant and inter-bank transactions.Data are provisional.
(Source: www.rbi.org.in)
1. Balance of payments
2. Demand and Supply
3. Purchasing power parity (PPP)
4. Interest rate
1. Balance of Payment
Export and import are very vital transactions carried between two countries. Where a
country pays foreign exchange for the imports made by them similarly, when the
country make any export then receipts of foreign currency will take in to accounts
then two possibilities may be arise i.e.,
a. If foreign exchange payments exceed receipts and there is a deficit, then it
puts the home currency of the country under downward pressure against
foreign currencies. It means the home currency tends to depreciate.
b. If foreign exchange receipts exceed payment and there is a surplus, then it
puts the home currency of the country upward pressure against foreign
currencies. It means it tends to appreciate.
2007-08 2008-09
Item Credit Debit Net Credit Debit Net
1 2 3 4 5 6
A CURRENT
. ACCOUNT
I. - -
10,35,6 8,57,96 14,05,4
MERCHANDI 6,68,008 3,67,66 5,47,45
72 0 12
SE 4 2
II. INVISIBLES 2,93,90 3,04,18 7,70,42 3,50,60 4,19,82
5,98,088
(a+b+c) 2 5 9 8 1
2,06,79 1,56,24 4,88,01 2,39,60 2,48,40
a) Services 3,63,042
8 4 0 4 6
i) Travel 45,526 37,191 8,335 50,226 43,336 6,890
ii
40,199 46,278 -6,079 52,073 58,531 -6,458
Transportation
iii) Insurance 6,586 4,192 2,393 6,531 5,230 1,301
iv) G.n.i.e. 1,331 1,518 -186 1,771 3,777 -2,006
v) 1,17,61 1,51,78 3,77,40 1,28,73 2,48,67
2,69,400
Miscellaneous 8 1 9 0 9
of which
Software 1,48,52 2,12,24 2,00,63
1,62,020 13,494 11,608
Services 6 2 4
Business
67,430 66,469 961 85,544 70,922 14,622
Services
Financial
12,917 12,560 357 20,425 13,569 6,856
Services
Communicatio
9,682 3,462 6,220 10,525 5,027 5,498
n Services
1,68,45 2,16,90 2,04,33
b) Transfers 1,77,745 9,293 12,568
2 6 8
i) Official 3,024 2,073 951 3,029 1,900 1,129
1,67,50 2,13,87 2,03,20
ii) Private 1,74,721 7,220 10,668
1 7 9
c) Income 57,300 77,811 -20,511 65,513 98,436 -32,923
i) Investment -
55,451 73,410 61,723 92,418 -30,695
Income 17,959
ii)
Compensation 1,849 4,402 -2,552 3,790 6,018 -2,228
of Employees
-
Total Current 12,66,09 13,29,5 - 16,28,3 17,56,0
1,27,63
Account (I+II) 6 75 63,479 89 20
1
B CAPITAL
. ACCOUNT
1. Foreign
10,86,53 9,12,13 1,74,39 7,55,70 7,33,01
Investment 22,685
0 5 5 3 8
(a+b)
a) Foreign
Direct 1,76,67
1,49,902 86,125 63,776 88,945 87,734
Investment 9
(i+ii)
1,39,42 1,71,59 1,70,81
i) In India 1,39,885 465 773
0 2 9
1,07,31 1,26,39 1,25,62
Equity 1,07,749 434 773
5 4 1
Reinvested
30,916 – 30,916 41,541 – 41,541
Earnings
Other Capital 1,220 31 1,189 3,657 – 3,657
-
ii) Abroad 10,017 85,660 5,087 88,172 -83,085
75,644
-
Equity 10,017 67,956 5,087 68,976 -63,889
57,939
Reinvested
– 4,365 -4,365 – 4,986 -4,986
Earnings
-
Other Capital – 13,340 – 14,210 -14,210
13,340
b) Portfolio 8,26,00 1,10,61 5,79,02 6,44,07
9,36,628 -65,049
Investment 9 9 4 3
8,25,71 1,09,96 5,78,34 6,42,54
i) In India 9,35,683 -64,200
5 8 4 4
of which
8,25,71 5,73,45 6,42,54
FIIs 9,07,936 82,221 -69,097
5 1 8
ADR/GDRs 26,556 – 26,556 4,890 – 4,890
ii) Abroad 945 294 651 680 1,529 -849
2. Loans 3,30,331 1,66,84 1,63,49 2,85,41 2,50,61 34,800
(a+b+c) 0 1 2 2
a) External
17,019 8,553 8,466 24,435 12,877 11,558
Assistance
i) By India 94 112 -18 332 1,913 -1,581
ii) To India 16,925 8,441 8,484 24,103 10,964 13,139
b) Commercial
1,21,942 30,855 91,086 70,846 34,316 36,530
Borrowings
i) By India 6,412 6,538 -126 9,225 3,643 5,582
ii) To India 1,15,529 24,317 91,212 61,621 30,673 30,948
c) Short Term 1,27,43 1,90,13 2,03,41
1,91,370 63,939 -13,288
to India 2 1 9
i) Suppliers’
Credit >180 1,27,43 1,77,84 1,77,67
1,71,184 43,752 168
days & 2 3 5
Buyers’ Credit
ii) Suppliers’
Credit up 20,187 – 20,187 12,288 25,744 -13,456
to180 days
3. Banking 1,76,82 2,95,40 3,14,61
2,23,979 47,155 -19,205
Capital (a+b) 4 8 3
a) Commercial 2,94,84
2,23,664 1,75,113 48,551 3,11,869 -17,026
Banks 3
1,14,75 1,30,57
i) Assets 78,366 50,734 27,632 -15,823
3 6
1,24,37 1,80,09 1,81,29
ii) Liabilities 1,45,298 20,919 -1,203
9 0 3
of which: Non-
1,17,37 1,71,04 1,50,61
Resident 1,18,077 705 20,430
2 7 7
Deposits
b) Others 315 1,712 -1,397 565 2,744 -2,179
4. Rupee Debt
– 492 -492 – 471 -471
Service
5. Other
1,17,094 73,716 43,377 85,467 97,258 -11,791
Capital
Total Capital 17,57,93 13,30,0 4,27,92 14,21,9 13,95,9
26,018
Account (1to5) 3 07 6 90 72
C Errors &
5,241 – 5,241 4,498 – 4,498
. Omissions
Overall
Balance (Total
Current
Account,
D 30,29,27 26,59,5 3,69,68 30,54,8 31,51,9
Capital -97,115
. 0 82 9 77 92
Account and
Errors &
Omissions
(A+B+C))
Monetary -
E 3,69,68
Movements – 3,69,68 97,115 – 97,115
. 9
(i+ii) 9
i) I.M.F. – – – – – –
ii) Foreign
Exchange -
3,69,68
Reserves – 3,69,68 97,115 – 97,115
9
( Increase - / 9
Decrease +)
of which: SDR
– – – – – –
allocation
P: Preliminary. PR: Partially Revised.
(Source: www.rbi.org.in)
At the most basic level, exchange rates are determined by the demand and supply
of one currency relative to the demand and supply of another. The demand and
supply of currencies is fuelled by the supply and demand of goods and services. The
spot exchange rate depends on supply and demand of a foreign currency throughout
the day. This is in response to the changes in the supply and demand for goods and
services. Differences in spot rates reflect differences in supply and demand for
currencies. These differences will affect the value of the currency.
For example: If spot demand for US dollars is high and US dollars are in short
supply but the spot demand for British pounds is low and the supply of British
pounds is plentiful, the dollar will most likely appreciate against the pound. This
reflects the supply and demand for US and British goods.
When can affect the demand and supply of goods and services:
For Example: Change in income due to increased employment, more workers in the
workforce, period of economic growth etc., give resident of a country more
expandable income. An increase in domestic income of a country will usually
encourage the residents o spend a portion of their additional income on imports.
When the income of a nation grows rapidly, imports tend to rise rapidly. Which
resulted in to more domestic currency is traded for more foreign currency and at the
domestic currency will usually depreciate.
If income in both trading partner are increasing, the country with the faster growing
income will increase demand for imports relatively more. This may lead to
depreciation in currency of the more rapidly growing national economy.
We will through some charts and an example to show how these forces work, from a
theatrical point of view:
Figure 1 shows that the demand for British pounds in the United states. The curve is
a normal downward sloping demand curve, indicating that as the pound depreciates
relative to the dollar, the quantity of pounds demanded by Americans increases.
Note that we are measuring the price of the pound-the exchange rate-on the vertical
axis. Since it is dollar per pound ($/£), it is the price of a pound in terms of dollars
and an increase in the exchange rate, R, is a decline in the value of the dollar. In
other words, movement up the vertical axis represent an increase in price of the
pound, which is equivalent to a fall in the price of the dollar. Similarly, movement
down the vertical axis represent a decrease in the price of the pound.
Figure 2 shows the supply side of the picture. The supply curve slopes up because
British firms and consumers are willing to buy a greater quantity of American goods
as the dollar becomes cheaper (i.e., they receive more dollars per pound). Before
British customers can buy Americans goods, however, they must convert pounds
into dollars, so the increase in the American goods demanded is simultaneously an
increase in the quantity of foreign curency supplied to the US.
Suppliers and consumers meet at a particular quantity and price at which they are
both satisfied. Figure 3 combines the supply and demand curves. The intersection
determines the market exchange rate and the quantity of dollars supplied to US. At
the exchange rate R1 the demand and supply of British Pounds to the US is equal
which is Q1 at point E.
For Example: On Jan 1, a basket of goods cost US $ 200 and Japan ¥ 20,000
and On Dec 1, the same basket of goods costs US $ 200 and Japan ¥ 22,000.
Result: It takes 10% more yen to buy the same basket of goods (22,000/
20,000) so the value of the yen is depreciating by 10%. The Dollar is
appreciating and will buy 10% more.
4. Interest Rate
Theory says that nominal interest rates reflect expectations about future
inflation rates.
Fisher Effects (i = r + I) i.e., Nominal rates are equal to the real rate of return
plus compensation for expected inflation. For example, if the real interest rate
in a country is 5% and annual inflation is expected to be 10%, the nominal rate
will be 15%.
In the global market, differences in interest rates can exist. Investors will trade
in their home currency to obtain currency of the country offering the higher rate
so that they can purchase higher yield assets. Initially this will cause more
demand for the currency in the country with the higher rate and thus cause an
appreciation of that currency.
For Example: Japan has higher interest rate than the US. So, US investors
trade in their dollars for Yen in order to buy higher yield assets. This increased
demand for Yen causes the Yen to appreciate initially.
Example: Over time, the lower interest rate in the U.S. will attract more
borrowers and the demand for money in the U.S. will raise the interest rates
there. The increase in supply of money in Japan would begin to lower interest
rates there. This would continue until both sets of real interest rates are
equalized.
PPP theory predicts that changes in relative prices will result in a change in
exchange rates; exchange rates are affected by inflation.From Fisher Effect,
we know that interest rates reflect expectations about inflation. Interest rates
tell us about inflation can cause exchange rates to change. Therefore, theory
says that interest rates reflect expectations about future exchange rates.
The risk that arises from changes in exchange rates: the likelihood that
unpredictable or unexpected changes in exchange rates will have an impact
(positive or negative) on the value of various activities of a company’s business.
Foreign exchange transaction affects the net asset or net liability position of the
buyer/seller. Carrying net assets or net liability position in any currency gives rise to
exchange risk.
For Examples:
1. An unexpected change in exchange rates will change the home currency value
of foreign currency cash payment that is expected from a foreign source;
Foreign exchange transactions are effected by various Kinds of risks. These are:
1. Translation exposure
2. Transaction exposure
3. Economic exposure
1. Translation exposure
The risk, faced by companies involved in international trade, that currency exchange
rate will change after the companies have already entered into financial obligations.
Such exposure to fluctuating exchange rates can lead to major losses for firms.
All financial statements of a foreign subsidiary have to be translated into the home
currency for the purpose of finalizing the accounts for any given period.
a. Assets & Liabilities are to be translated at the current rate, i.e. the rate prevailing
at the time of preparation of consolidated statements.
b. All revenues & expenses are to be translated at the actual exchange rates
prevailing on the date of transactions.
c. Translation adjustments (gains or losses) are not be charged to the net income
of the reporting company. (They are accumulated & reported in a separate
account).
For example:
Assets Liabilities
$ 421052 $ 421052
2. Transaction exposure
This exposure refers to the extent to which the future value of firm’s domestic cash
flow is affected by exchange rate fluctuations. It arises from the possibility of
incurring exchange rate gains or losses on transaction already entered into and
denominated in a foreign currency.
All transactions gains and losses should be accounted for and included in the
equity’s net income for the reporting period.
The exposure could be interpreted either from the standpoint of the affiliate or the
parent company.
The risk is that a variation in the rate will affect the company’s competitive position in
the market and hence its profits.
It cannot be hedged.
Preamble of the Act: “An Act to consolidate and amend the law relating to foreign
exchange with the objective of facilitating external trade and payments and for
promoting the orderly development and maintenance of foreign exchange market in
India”.
As we can see that the whole act has been enacted only for the purpose to regulate,
promote, facilitate and manage foreign exchange, so how much this is important for
the Country.
The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) was an act passed in the winter
session of Parliament in 1999 which replaced Foreign Exchange Regulation Act. This
act seeks to make offenses related to foreign exchange civil offenses in place of
criminal offences. It extends to the whole of India.
FEMA, which replaced Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), had become the
need of the hour since FERA had become incompatible with the pro-liberalization
policies of the Government of India. FEMA has brought a new management regime
of Foreign Exchange consistent with the emerging framework of the World Trade
Organization (WTO). It is another matter that the enactment of FEMA also brought
with it the Prevention of Money Laundering Act 2002, which came into effect from 1
July 2005.
Unlike other laws where everything is permitted unless specifically prohibited, under
this act everything was prohibited unless specifically permitted. Hence the tenor and
tone of the Act was very drastic. It required imprisonment even for minor offences.
Under FERA a person was presumed guilty unless he proved himself innocent,
whereas under other laws a person is presumed innocent unless he is proven guilty.
The introduction of Foreign Exchange Regulation Act was done in 1974, a period
when India’s foreign exchange reserve position wasn’t at its best. A new control in
place to improve this position was the need of the hour. FERA did not succeed in
restricting activities, especially the expansion of TNCs (Transnational Corporations).
The concessions made to FERA in 1991-1993 showed that FERA was on the verge
of becoming redundant. After the amendment of FERA in 1993, it was decided that
the act would become the FEMA. This was done in order to relax the controls on
foreign exchange in India, as a result of economic liberalization. FEMA served to
make transactions for external trade (exports and imports) easier – transactions
involving current account for external trade no longer required RBI’s permission. The
deals in Foreign Exchange were to be ‘managed’ instead of ‘regulated’. The switch to
FEMA shows the change on the part of the government in terms of foreign capital.
The buying and selling of foreign currency and other debt instruments by businesses,
individuals and governments happens in the foreign exchange market. Apart from
being very competitive, this market is also the largest and most liquid market in the
world as well as in India. It constantly undergoes changes and innovations, which
can either be beneficial to a country or expose them to greater risks. The
management of foreign exchange market becomes necessary in order to mitigate
and avoid the risks. Central banks would work towards an orderly functioning of the
transactions which can also develop their foreign exchange market.
Whether under FERA or FEMA’s control, the need for the management of foreign
exchange is important. It is necessary to keep adequate amount of foreign exchange
reserves, especially when India has to go in for imports of certain goods. By
maintaining sufficient reserves, India’s foreign exchange policy marked a shift from
Import Substitution to Export Promotion.
3 Main Features
Activities such as payments made to any person outside India or receipts
from them, along with the deals in foreign exchange and foreign security
is restricted. It is FEMA that gives the central government the power to
impose the restrictions.
Exporters are needed to furnish their export details to RBI. To ensure that
the transactions are carried out properly, RBI may ask the exporters to
comply with its necessary requirements.
X. Types of Transactions
RBI has imposed foreign exchange exposure limits on banks (FE 12 of 1999).
The limits are tied with the Paid up capital of the bank.
Previously banks had NOP limit, which was based on foreign exchange
volume handled by the bank.
XII. CONCLUSION
As per the report, Foreign Exchange market is one of the emerging areas of
opportunities for the corporate. Foreign exchange can be considered as an
instrument of money market where corporate can invest huge funds and make profits
in short term. For corporate which have foreign investment or foreign subsidiary or
companies mainly engaged in the export or import of goods and services requires to
keep a close view on the Foreign Exchange rates of various currencies in which the
Companies are mainly in to dealings with the other countries.
In the Indian perspective FOREX may be considered as a vital tool in managing the
debt of economy and its subsequent waiver or valuation. The concept of PPP also
plays a vital role in managing the burden of economy and bringing to fore t disparities
in earnings’ and expenditures of the nation in a judicious and wise manner so as to
enhance its presence as a key player in the global arena.
The role of RBI as a regulator of foreign exchange of the nation and its judicious and
wise policies including the re-fabrication of FERA to FEMA in due course has helped
INDIA to attain a safe and stale position in the great economic turmoil which has
seen almost all major economies of the world melting in its crucible. The judicious
step taken by RBI in purchasing gold worth 200 billion to prevent the currency and its
precise timing just before recession hit the world has also been seen as a vital step
by many economists round the globe as a celebrated step in insulating its currency
from the fluctuations of world market at large.