16 Project Management in The Oil and Gas Industry
16 Project Management in The Oil and Gas Industry
s2
RAV m (2.42)
2B
where m equals the mean NPV, s2 =equals the standard deviation of distri-
bution, and B equals total monies budgeted for risky investments.
RAV, under this format, can be based on information typically gener-
ated in the evaluation. RAV also depends on the estimated value relative
to the dispersion of the NPV outcome. More importantly, high dispersion
projects may be ranked above projects with lower standard deviation if the
dispersion relative to the budget is low. RAV depends on two basic rela-
tionships: m relative to s2 and s2 relative to B.
If the mean value of NPV that was calculated from the Monte-Carlo
simulation is equal to ten million dollars, then a standard deviation illus-
trates the dominance of the dispersion term, since $10 – (15)2 will be a very
negative value. Now, suppose that the investor is a large oil company with
a budget of $1,000 million. The RAV of the project is
225
RAV 10 $9.9million.
2 1000
For a smaller investor with a budget of only $200 million, RAV becomes
225
RAV 10 $9.4million.
2 200
The breakeven RAV value for B is found by solving
s2 225
RAV (breakeven) 11.25.
2 m 2 10
We are not aware of anyone presently ranking on RAV, although more
people are discussing it. Like other ideas portrayed in this book, we believe
it should be included as part of the evaluation for a period of time. If RAV
aids in decision-making, then include it permanently.