CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This chapter aims at placing the study under a scholarly context by reviewing the
various contributions made by several authorities and researchers on rainfall variability,
climate weather variability and millet crop production. This chapter seeks to unearth
the various views held by scholars on the nexus between rainfall variability and millet
crop production. These enabled the researcher to put the problem in its right perspective
and hence, provide a better understanding and appreciation of the problem under
investigation. Issues and concepts of rainfall variability and millet production are
theoretically and empirically reviewed.

2.2 Global Trends of Climate Variability

Long-term climate change has significance to global food production. Extreme weather
events and their year-to-year variability pose great risk to food security globally.
Historically, many of the largest reductions in crop productivity have been attributed to
anomalously low precipitation events (Kumar et al., 2004; Sivakumar et al., 2005).
However, even small changes in mean annual rainfall can impact on productivity.
Lobell and Burke (2008) report that a change in growing seasonal precipitation by one
standard deviation can be associated with as much as a 10 per cent change in production
(e.g. millet in South Asia). Indian agriculture is highly dependent on the spatial and
temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall (Kumar et al., 2004). Meteorological records
suggest that heat waves became more frequent over the twentieth century, and while
individual events cannot be attributed to climate change, the change in probability of
heat waves can be attributed. Europe experienced a particularly extreme climate event
during the summer of 2003, with average temperatures reaching 6°C above normal and
precipitation deficits of up to 300 mm. A record crop yield loss of 36 per cent occurred
in Italy for corn grown in the Po valley where extremely high temperatures prevailed
(Ciais et al., 2005). It is estimated that such summer temperatures in Europe are now
50 per cent more likely to occur as a result of anthropogenic climate change (Stott et
al., 2004). As current farming systems are highly adapted to local climate, growing

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suitable crops and varieties, the definition of what constitutes extreme weather depends
on geographical location. For example, temperatures considered extreme for grain
growers in the UK would be considered normal for cereal growers in central France. In
many regions, farming may adapt to increases in extreme temperature events by moving
to practices already used in warmer climate, for example by growing more tolerant
crops. However, in regions where farming exists at the edge of key thresholds, increases
in extreme temperatures or drought may move the local climate into a state outside
historical human experience. Weather variability is already exerting control over
development progress, including efforts to address food security and poverty alleviation
in sub-Saharan Africa (Sokona and Denton, 2001). On many occasions extreme weather
variability events leave vulnerable people in Africa and indeed in other regions of the
world totally unprepared and unable to cope. The adverse impact of climate change is
further envisaged on natural resources such as water and land. These resources are
threatened by poor and unsustainable resources management, on one hand and the
impact of weather variability on the other. Between 1961-1990 and 2040-2069 the
global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase
between 2.1oC and 3.20C (Hijmans, 2003) depending on various climate scenarios. The
temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and
particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted
temperature increase between l and 1.40C). He further argues that, global potential
potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with
adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of
planting, the use of late-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato
production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively
small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower
latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on
millet production. It is shown that heat-tolerant millet cultivars could be used to mitigate
effects of global warming in (sub) tropical regions.

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2.2.2 Rainfall Variability Trend

The study of Chen et al. (2014) indicates that precipitation across the whole Yangtze
basin of China is very high in comparison to many rivers elsewhere. Annual
precipitation across the whole basin averages 1024 mm and even in the driest section,
the upper basin, the average is still 854 mm. The study however attributes the high
precipitation in the Yangtze basin to the relatively small net consumption of water in
relation to total annual flow in the region.

Tao et al. (2011) on the characteristics of hydro-climatic changes in the Tarim River
Basin in China. They noted that the stations with significant increasing trends in annual
stream flow were mainly distributed at the southern slope of Tianshan Mountain, which
can only be explained by climatic changes. In the same vein,

Petrie et al. (2014) demonstrated in their study at northern Chihuahuan Desert, United
States, that regional precipitation exhibits trends in average event timing and
magnitude. Their study however indicated that the compensating changes did not induce
change in the total average monsoon precipitation at the United States Historical
Climatology Network (USHCN) sites over the last 100 years. The major reason given
for no change in average total precipitation was explained to the effect that small
number of very large events could account for the majority of total precipitation and
that smaller events may often be insignificant in terms of total precipitation.

Contrary, the findings of Afzal (2011) reveals that the increasing trends in rainfall have
not been temporally continuous. Rather, the findings show an abrupt change in
precipitation amounts around 1980 in Western Scotland. The study further notes that
there was a spatial pattern in average rainfall variability. For instance, the West and
South-west regions experienced the highest rainfall variability pattern. The study is
deficient as to why the increasing trend in rainfall has not been temporally continuous.

Lionello et al. (2011) therefore confirm the absence of important sustained trends of
severe marine storminess in the northern Adriatic during the second half of the 20th
century by the analysis of hourly sea level time series and significant wave height
records. Even though the study shows some relatively negative trends, the time series

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methodology employed were dominated by large inter-annual variability. The study
further avers that cyclones which produce extreme storm surges differ from those
producing high waves, and both have specific characteristics that distinguish them with
respect to other cyclones passing over northern Italy. According to Jidauna et al. (2011),
the quantity and duration of rainfall pattern experienced over the years in Nigeria
remarkably decreased by 78.6 percent while the intensity of the rains experienced in the
rainy season also decreased by 77.3 percent. Again, according to the study, the stream
flow data over the past twenty years in Nigeria shows a decrease in rainfall of about
76.8 percent affecting the level of stream flow and time of annual recharge. It is
therefore clear that such a considerable reduction in rainfall has the potential to impact
significantly on agriculture with an overall consequence on food security.

The situation was not different from the situation around the coastal areas of Benin as
the analysis of climate data recorded for the last 40 years as well as the climate model
implementation showed a decrease of annual rainfall pattern and the shortening of the
rainy seasons (Teka et al., 2010).

According to Adeniyi (2009), Nigeria rainfall follows a usual zonal pattern and the vast
majority of precipitation falls within a well-defined period. The southern stations
(Calabar, Enugu, Ibadan, Ogoja, and Port-Hacourt) are characterized by two peaks of
rainfall in June/July and September while the northern stations (Os, Maiduguri, Minna,
Nguru and Sokoto) have only one peak per year. Rainfall starts earlier in the southern
stations in April/May and it ceases last in this region in October. A period termed
“August break” exists in the south when rainfall ceases for some days. The period of
rainfall in the northern stations is 3 to 5 months; the onset month is May/June while the
cessation month is September/October. The coastal stations receive more rainfall
(ranging from 1487.9 to 2865.2 mm) than the inland stations (ranging from 473.3 to
836 mm) annually. Total annual rainfall pattern in Nigerian stations has a seemingly
random variation, while some years have rainfall amount far below the mean, some
have amount of rainfall far above the mean and can be termed years of drought or flood,
respectively, depending on the magnitude of deviation from the mean. Years of average,
low (drought) and high (flood) amount of rainfall are determined. Many of the points

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lie very close to and within the confidence limits with the exception of the ENSO years.
The points far above the confidence limits are the flood years associated with the neutral
and cold phases of ENSO the points far below the confidence limits are the drought
years which correspond to the warm ENSO phase. Rainfall variability which is
correlated to global phenomena such as ENSO affects rain-fed Agriculture.

According to Muga (2010) increased variability (deviation from the mean) of crop
production is also a major concern of farmers in Eastern Africa. Inter-annual climate
variability (ENSO) has huge impacts on the region’s climate. Warm ENSO events also
referred to as El Niño events produce abnormally high amounts of precipitation in parts
of equatorial East Africa and result in flooding and decreased agricultural yields.

According to IPCC (2007) East Africa has been faced by large variability in rainfall
with occurrence of extreme events in terms of droughts and floods. Droughts in the last
20 years -1983/84, 1991/92, 1995/96, 1999/2001, 2004/2005 (led to famine). El-Niño
related floods of 1997/98 were a very severe event enhanced by unusual pattern of SST
in the Indian Ocean. The El Niño in 1997/98 and La Niña in 1999/2000 were the most
severe in 50 years.

2.2.3 Rainfall Characteristics and Millet Production

Water is vital to plant growth, so varying precipitation patterns have a significant impact
on agriculture. As over 80 per cent of total agriculture globally is rain-fed, projections
of future precipitation changes often influence the magnitude and direction of climate
impacts on crop production (Olesen and Bindi 2002; Tubiello et al., 2002; Reilly et al.,
2003).

Ronsezweig (2002) examined the potential impacts of weather variability on millet

production in the US. The study identified that millet production is vulnerable to an
increase in temperature in the northern states; while increased CO2 and changes in
planting date having minimal compensating impacting on simulated millet production.
Unlike the study which examined the effects of CO2 and temperature, the present study
assessed the effects of rainfall variation on millet production. The impact of global
warming on regional precipitation is difficult to predict owing to strong dependencies

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on changes in atmospheric circulation, although there is increasing confidence in
projections of a general increase in high-latitude precipitation, especially in winter, and
an overall decrease in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics (IPCC 2007). One
scenario which predicts an overall increase in precipitation shows large increases in
southern USA and India but also significant decreases in the tropics and sub-tropics.

About 95% of current world population growth occurs in tropical developing countries
with rural economies based on rain-fed agriculture (Rockstrom et al., 2001). In Sub-
Saharan Africa, rain-fed agriculture has been the dominant source of food production.
It is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, since more than 95% of the
agricultural farmland is under rain-fed agriculture (Parr et al., 1990 and Rosengrant et
al., 2000).

The common characteristics of rain-fed agriculture, especially in the tropical and the
semi-arid agro ecosystems are low crop yields far below potential yields attainable in
the regions, and high on-farm water losses. For example, in tropical and semi-arid Sub-
Saharan Africa, cereal yields from rain-fed cultivation have been reported to be
generally around 1 ton ha-1 (Rockstrom, 2001) as against potential yields attainable in
the region, which are reported as 3-5 ton ha-1 (Barron, 2004). This wide yield gap
suggests that there is an enormous opportunity to raise crop yields of rain-fed
agriculture.

According to Adeniyi (2009) the long term onset time of rainfall is normally used to
determine the time of farm clearing and preparation for planting. Following the method
of onset determination proposed by the study on measures of uncertain climatic
condition in Nigeria. The onset time of rainfall for each year can be specified and time
of planting of millet can be determined to get maximum yield. The known annual cycle
of rainfall gives the range of expected amount of rainfall for each year, so the farmers
can know the type of plant that can survive under such amount of rainfall.

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2.3 Geographical Distribution, Millet Production and Importance

According to FAO statistics (2013), the world production of millet was 29,870,058
metric tons from an area of 33,692,000 Hectare. Nearly a decade earlier (2002), the
world production of millets was down to 23,338,000 metric tons from an area of
33,396,000 Hectare. India was the largest producer of millet in 2013 with 10,910,000
metric tons followed by Nigeria with 5,000,000 metric tons and Niger with 2,955,000
metric tons. Relative to other cereal crops such as wheat, rice, maize and barley,
sorghum ranks fifth in importance, in terms of both production and area planted,
accounting for 5% of the world cereal production (Obilana 2004).

Table 2.1 Top ten Millet producers – 2013

S/N Country Production (tonnes)

1. India 10,910,000
2. Nigeria 5,000,000
3. Niger 2,955,000
4. China 1,620,000
5. Mali 1,152,331
6. Burkina Faso 1,109,000
7. Sudan 1,090,000
8. Ethiopia 807,056
9. Chad 582,000
10. Senegal 572,155
World 29,870,058
Source: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations: Economic and
social department: The Statistical Division (2013)