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Tracking the growth of India's Middle Class

Article  in  McKinsey Quarterly · January 2007

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 Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 51

Tracking the growth of

India’s middle class

Over the next two decades, the country’s middle class will grow from
about 5 percent of the population to more than 40 percent and create the
world’s fifth-largest consumer market.

Eric D. Beinhocker, Diana Farrell,

and Adil S. Zainulbhai

India’s rapid economic growth has set the stage for fundamental change
among the country’s consumers. The same energy that has lifted hundreds
of millions of Indians out of desperate poverty is creating a massive middle
class centered in the cities. A new study by the McKinsey Global Institute
(MGI) suggests that if India continues its recent growth, average household
incomes will triple over the next two decades and it will become the world’s
5th-largest consumer economy by 2025, up from 12th now.1 Along the way,
spending patterns will shift significantly as discretionary purchases capture
a majority of consumer spending. India’s potential should make it a
high priority for most consumer goods businesses, but to succeed in this
complex market they must overcome major challenges.

Private consumption has already played a much larger role in India’s growth
than it has in that of other developing countries. In 2005 private spending
reached about 17 trillion Indian rupees2 ($372 billion), accounting for more
than 60 percent of India’s GDP, so in this respect the country is closer
to developed economies such as Japan and the United States than are China
and other fast-growing emerging markets in Asia (Exhibit 1). Our study
Dinesh Khanna

1
The full report, The ‘Bird of Gold’: The Rise of India’s Consumer Market, is available free of charge online
at www.mckinsey.com/mgi.
2
We have converted Indian rupees to US dollars at the base year 2000 exchange rate of 45.7 rupees to the dollar.
Purchasing-power-parity figures were converted at the rate of 8.5 rupees to the dollar.
52 The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 3

Article at a glance
shows that aggregate consumer
Over the next 20 years, India will likely grow to become
spending could more than
the world’s fifth-largest consumer economy. quadruple in coming years, reaching
A study by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests
70 trillion rupees by 2025. Higher
that if India can achieve 7.3 percent annual private incomes and, to a lesser
growth—a reasonable assumption if economic extent, population growth will
reforms continue—consumer spending will quadruple,
encourage this rise in consumption.
from about 17 trillion Indian rupees ($372 billion) in
2005 to 70 trillion rupees in 2025. The dramatic growth Changes in savings behavior will
in India’s middle class, from 50 million to 583 million play only a minor role.
people, will power this surge.

With such growth on the horizon,

Spending patterns will shift dramatically as
expenditures grow rapidly on discretionary items
it is unclear which companies
ranging from personal products to consumer
will win in most product categories.
electronics. Incumbents will have to fight to retain
Opportunities will blossom as
their market dominance, while attackers could
millions of first-time buyers step
find lucrative ways to exploit the evolving tastes
of India’s massive new middle class. up to cash registers and as the bulk
of consumer spending moves
Related articles
from scattered, hard-to-reach rural
on mckinseyquarterly.com
areas to more concentrated,
“China and India: The race to growth”
accessible urban markets. Indian
“The new Chinese consumer”
consumer spending will shift
“Winning the Indian consumer” substantially from the informal
economy, with its individual
traders, to the more efficient formal economy of organized businesses. That
transition will lower prices and further boost demand.

But neither incumbents nor attackers will have an easy time. Bureaucratic
hurdles and well-recognized infrastructure shortcomings will frustrate
many strategies. In addition, while aggregate spending will rise tremen-
dously, it will be spread across hundreds of millions of households, many
with very modest incomes (by the standards of developed countries) and
high sensitivity to price and value. Finally, in many consumer markets
both Indian and multinational companies already compete intensely for
customers. While the opportunities will be enormous, the challenges
will force companies to be more dynamic by adapting their products, ser-
vices, and business models to the rapidly changing needs and incomes
of Indian consumers.

We examined the way India’s consumer market will likely develop under a
set of reasonable economic assumptions (see sidebar, “About the research”).
In particular, our model assumes that real compound annual growth will
be 7.3 percent over the next two decades and that economic-reform efforts
will continue. If these conditions are met, the life of the average Indian
will change vastly by 2025.
 Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 53

About the research

To assess the likely evolution of India’s consumer Our model is driven by a macroeconomic base
market, MGI assembled a proprietary data- case that shows overall real compound annual
base with 20 years of data linking macroeconomic economic growth of 7.3 percent and real per
and demographic variables to the incomes and capita growth of 5.9 percent to 2025. This base
consumption behavior of Indian households. We case is in turn built on a more detailed analy-
made extensive use of our exclusive access to sis of future productivity growth, sectoral growth
the Market Information Survey of Households (MISH) rates, savings and investment, demographics,
database (covering more than 300,000 house- education levels, and other factors.
holds), created from income surveys conducted by
India’s National Council of Applied Economic We have not based our projections for India on
Research (NCAER), as well as the Indian govern- any profound shift in economic policy. Rather,
ment’s National Sample Survey (NSS) house- we assume that recent rapid growth rates will cool
hold consumption database, created from consumer down to a more sustainable (but still high) level,
expenditure surveys across thousands of villages that the country will remain on a long-term path
and urban blocks. We integrated the MISH and NSS of economic reform, and that India will make
data, along withWebEx
data from2007
a variety of other necessary investments in its infrastructure and
sources, and thenMGI India consumers
constructed an econometric model human capital. Faster reform, investment, and
to forecast India’s
Maphousehold income and spend- modernization would hasten the results we describe;
ing from 2006 to 2025. a slower pace would delay them or put India’s
future progress at risk.

Capital Large urban areas

Kashmir (administered Area ceded to China

by Pakistan) by Pakistan, claimed by India

Line of Control Area held by China,

claimed by India
Afghanistan Jammu
and Kashmir
(administered by India)
Punjab Himachal Pradesh China
Chandigarh
Uttarakhand
Pakistan Haryana Arunachal
Delhi Sikkim Pradesh
Nepal
Bhutan
Uttar
Rajasthan Assam Nagaland
Pradesh
Bihar Meghalaya
Bangladesh Manipur
Gujarat Jharkhand Tripura
Madhya Pradesh West Mizoram
Ahmedabad
Bengal
Chhattisgarh
Myanmar
Daman (Burma)
Maharashtra Orissa Kolkata
and Diu
Mumbai
Dadra and
Pune
Nagar Haveli
Hyderabad
Puducherry1
Andhra
Goa Karnataka BAY OF BENGAL
Pradesh
ARABIAN SEA Bangalore
Chennai
Puducherry1 Puducherry1
Tamil Nadu Puducherry1
Kerala Andaman and
Lakshadweep
Nicobar Islands

Gulf of Mannar Sri Lanka

INDIAN OCEAN

1Puducherry (formerly Pondicherry), a union territory, comprises 4 noncontiguous enclaves

of former French India.
 MGI India consumers
Exhibit 1 of 5
Glance: India’s private consumption as a share of GDP is closer to that of Japan and the United States
54 The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 3
than it is to China’s.

exhibit 1

Private consumption: A starring role

% of GDP, 2005

12,456
100% ($ billion) = 2,216 4,553 801

Private
39
consumption
57 62 70
Government
consumption 14

18 12
Investment 44 16

23 28
20
Net trade 3 1 –2 –6
China Japan1 India
United
States

1Figures do not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

Source: Global Insight; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

A market rising from poverty

India’s economic reforms, begun in 1991, have substantially improved the
country’s well-being, and our analysis shows that further improvements are
to come. In 1985 93 percent of the population lived on a household income
of less than 90,000 rupees a year, or about a dollar per person per day; by 2005
that proportion had been cut nearly in half, to 54 percent. By our estimate,
431 million fewer Indians live in extreme poverty today than would have if
poverty had remained stuck at the 1985 level. We project that if India can
achieve 7.3 percent annual growth over the next 20 years, 465 million more
people will be spared a life of extreme deprivation (Exhibit 2).

Contrary to popular perceptions, rural India has benefited from this growth:
extreme rural poverty has declined from 94 percent in 1985 to 61 per-
cent in 2005, and we project that it will drop to 26 percent by 2025. While
the progress has been substantial—even historic—significant challenges
remain. First, there are large regional disparities in growth and in the reduc-
tion of poverty: India’s southern and western states prosper, while the
northern and eastern states (with the exceptions of the capital region, Haryana,
Himachal Pradesh, and Punjab) lag behind. Second, while India has been
slowly urbanizing over the past two decades, it remains the least urbanized of
the emerging Asian economies. Today only 29 percent of Indians live in
cities, compared with 40 percent of the Chinese and 48 percent of Indonesians,
and we project that the level of urbanization will increase to only 37 per-
cent by 2025.3 Finally, while more Indians are completing secondary and higher

3
Methods of measurement differ across countries and may understate India’s urbanization rate, but the general
point remains valid.
 Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 55

education, the educational system remains severely strained and the quality
of and opportunities for schooling vary widely.

In rural areas life may become less desperate thanks to continued growth and
to government investment in infrastructure and development. But it will likely
remain a struggle, particularly for subsistence farmers in the north and east
and for others with little education. For India’s urbanites, especially educated
ones, the future looks promising. Many of these households will make the
jump not only out of poverty but also into the new and aspiring middle class.

The birth of a new middle class

The growth that has pulled millions of people out of poverty is also building
a huge middle class that will be concentrated in India’s urban areas. While
urbanization isn’t proceeding as quickly as it is in other Asian economies, rapid
population growth means that in absolute terms the country’s urban
population will expand significantly, from 318 million today to 523 million
in 2025.

WebEx
Urban 2007growth will bring several important consequences. First, it will put
MGI India
tremendous consumers
pressure on the urban infrastructure, which is already heavily
Exhibit 2 of 5
overburdened. (Our projections assume that infrastructure investments will
Glance:
at least keep pacefurther
India will see with reduction in poverty
urban growth andthat
and a growing middlewith
problems class. transporta-
Exhibit
tion and title: Escaping
utilities poverty
won’t worsen to the point of hampering growth.) Also, in

exhibit 2

Escaping poverty

Share of population by annual income bracket,1 %

Annual household income, thousand Indian
100% (millions of rupees3 (real 2000)
people) = 755 928 1,107 1,278 1,429
0 0 0
0 1 1 2 Globals
0
1 6 2 4 1 9 Strivers
18 19
Middle class
41 32 Seekers

43
93
80 36 Aspirers
54
35
22 Deprived

1985 1995 20052 2015 2025

Forecast

1Annual income: globals = >1,ooo,ooo rupees; strivers = 500,000–1,000,000; seekers = 200,000–499,999; aspirers = 90,000–199,999;
deprived = <90,000; figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.
2Estimated.
345.7 rupees = $1 in real 2000 dollars or 8.5 rupees = $1 adjusted for purchasing power parity.

Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

56 The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 3

India—unlike China, where urban growth is spread across a large number of

cities—the economy will continue to be dominated by the megacities (Delhi
and Mumbai) plus the six next-largest urban agglomerations.4 Nevertheless,
a handful of smaller places, such as Chandigarh and Ludhiana, will have
per capita incomes rivaling those of the major cities and emerge as attractive
markets. The shift in spending power from the countryside to the cities
will place the bulk of India’s private consumption within easier reach of major
companies. Today 57 percent of private spending is spread across rural areas,
but by 2025 cities will command 62 percent of the country’s spending power.

Along with the shift from rural to urban consumption, India will witness the
rapid growth of its middle class—households with disposable incomes from
200,000 to 1,000,000 rupees a year.5 That class now comprises about 50 mil-
lion people, roughly 5 percent of the population. By 2025 a continuing rise
in personal incomes will spur a tenfold increase, enlarging the middle class to
about 583 million people, or 41 percent of the population. In 20 years
the shape of the income pyramid will have become almost unrecognizable
(Exhibit 3).
WebEx 2007
MGI
TheIndia
Indianconsumers
middle class has already begun to evolve, and by 2025 it will
Exhibit
dominate5the cities. By then about three-quarters of India’s urbanites will be
3 of
Glance: A continuing
part of the middle rise class,
in incomes nationallywith
compared will spur
justa tenfold
more increase in the size of
than one-tenth India’s
today.
middle class.
Exhibit
The nexttitle:
4
six areThe expanding
Kolkata, Chennai,middle
Hyderabad, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, and Pune.
5
There is no standard definition of India’s middle class. In our study we adapted a methodology, from India’s
National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), defining the middle class as households with
a disposable income of 200,000 to 1,000,000 rupees ($4,380 to $21,890) a year in real 2000 terms. That seems
quite low in the context of a developed country, but because the cost of living is lower in India, this range of
income buys a recognizably middle-class lifestyle. In purchasing-power-parity terms, the range is comparable
to an income of $23,530 to $117,650 in a developed country such as the United States.

exhibit 3

The expanding middle

Middle class (xx.x) Number of households, millions

Aggregate disposable income by annual income bracket, trillion Indian rupees1

Globals 2.0 (1.2) 6.3 (3.3) 21.7 (9.5)

Strivers 1.6 (2.4) 3.8 (5.5) 20.9 (33.1)
Seekers 3.1 (10.9) 15.2 (55.1) 30.6 (94.9)
Aspirers 11.4 (91.3) 14.6 (106.0) 13.7 (93.1)
Deprived 5.4 (101.1) 3.8 (74.1) 2.6 (49.9)

2005 2015 2025

1Annual income: globals = >1,ooo,ooo rupees; strivers = 500,000–1,000,000; seekers = 200,000–499,999; aspirers =
90,000–199,999; deprived = <90,000; 45.7 rupees = $1 in real 2000 dollars or 8.5 rupees = $1 adjusted for purchasing power
parity; 45.7 rupees = $1 in real 2000 dollars or 8.5 rupees = $1 adjusted for purchasing power parity.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
 Glance: Income growth in India’s urban areas will lead to waves of dominant segments.
Exhibit title: Waves of change

Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 57

exhibit 4

Waves of change

Middle class

Urban households, millions of

households Annual income
bracket1
70
Actual Forecast

60
Seekers

50

40

Strivers
30

20
Aspirers
10 Globals
Deprived
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1Annual income: globals = >1,ooo,ooo rupees; strivers = 500,000–1,000,000; seekers = 200,000–499,999; aspirers =
90,000–199,999; deprived = <90,000.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

The expansion will come in two phases, with the lower middle class peaking
around 2020, just as the growth of the upper middle class accelerates
(Exhibit 4). About 400 million Indian city dwellers—a group nearly 100 mil-
lion people larger than the current population of the United States—will
belong to households with a comfortable standard of living. For many com-
panies, the sheer scale of this new urban middle class will ensure that it
receives significant attention.

What’s more, companies shouldn’t underestimate the market presented

by the country’s most affluent consumers: those earning more than
1,000,000 rupees a year—$21,890 in real 2000 dollar terms, or $117,650
in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). They will remain a small
portion of society: about 2 percent of the population in 2025, up from
0.2 percent today. But in absolute numbers, by 2025 India’s wealthiest
citizens will total 24 million, more than the current population of Australia.
By that year too, India’s affluent class will be larger than China’s com-
parable segment, projected at about 19 million people.6 Affluent India’s share
of national private consumption will increase from 7 percent today to
20 percent in 2025, which helps to explain the recent rush into the Indian
market of luxury goods such as Louis Vuitton bags and Jimmy Choo shoes.

6
See MGI ’s parallel study on China’s consumer market, From Made in China to Sold in China: The Rise
of the Chinese Urban Consumer, available free of charge online at www.mckinsey.com/mgi.
58 The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 3

These “global” Indians live mostly in the eight largest cities, so they are very
accessible to large domestic and multinational companies. Further, they have
tastes similar to those of their counterparts in developed countries: brand name
goods, vacations abroad, the latest consumer electronics, and high-end cars.

Changes in consumption
As Indians continue to climb the economic ladder, the composition of their
spending will change considerably. In a pattern witnessed in many other
developing countries, discretionary expenditures, such as mobile phones and
personal-care products, will take up more room in the nation’s shopping
basket.

This shift from necessities, defined in our analysis as food and clothing,7 is
already under way—and taking place at lower income levels than we have
seen in other countries (Exhibit 5). We expect that discretionary spending in
India will rise from 52 percent of total private spending today to 70 percent
in 2025. South Korea went through a similar transformation in the 1980s,
when its per capita income levels were about twice those of India now.

Food (including beverages and tobacco) will post the sharpest decline in
relative consumption, even as overall spending in the category rises. The fall
in the share of food expenditures during our forecast period—to 25 per-
cent, from 42 percent—is linked closely to the growth of the middle class.
Despite this relative decline, food will remain the single largest category
of expenditure, and we expect that growth in consumption will accelerate to
4.5 percent annually, from 3 percent over the past 20 years.

That growth, however, will appear tepid compared with the rise of other
categories. In particular, spending on purchases that improve the economic
prospects and quality of life of a person or family—health, education,
transport, and communications—will soar and eventually command a greater
share of consumption than they do elsewhere. The inadequacy of India’s
public-health system, for example, means that private health care is a high
priority for many Indian families when their incomes grow. This impera-
tive will drive growth in private health care spending by almost 11 percent
a year, so that it will account for 13 percent of the purchases of Indian
households by 2025, a larger share than current levels in all of the countries
we examined8 except the United States.

In another remarkable shift, spending on education will grow by 11 percent

over the next 20 years, to 9 percent of household consumption, higher

7
Housing too could reasonably be considered a necessity, but we excluded it in our cross-country comparisons
because of significant variations in national housing market structures, regulations, and measurement
methodologies. By contrast, the consumption of food and apparel is fairly comparable across countries.
8
Brazil, China, Germany, South Korea, and the United States.
Exhibit 5 of 5
Glance: The focus of India’s household budgets will shift from basic necessities to discretionary items.
Exhibit title: Beyond necessities
Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 59

exhibit 5

Beyond necessities

Share of average annual household consumption, %1

100% (thousand Indian rupees2) = 60 82 140 248

4 7
3 9 13 Health care
1 5
11 2 6
3 9 Education, recreation
4 17
2 6 Communication
19
14 8
3 20 Transportation
5 9
12 3
11 Personal products, services
6 12
3 Household products
5 10 Housing, utilities3
56 5 Apparel
42
34
25 Food, beverages, and tobacco
Discretionary spending
Spending on necessities
(ie, food, apparel3) 1995 20054 2015 2025
Forecast

1Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

2Real 2000 rupees; 45.7 rupees = $1 in real 2000 dollars or 8.5 rupees = $1 adjusted for purchasing power parity.
3McKinsey Global Institute’s cross-country comparisons of necessary consumption exclude housing from the category of necessity
because of significant variations in national housing market structures, regulations, and measurement methodologies.
4Estimated.

Source: McKinsey Global Institute analysis

than today’s levels in any of our benchmark countries. In rural areas,

households emerging from poverty will make educating their children a
priority, while higher-income urbanites will be spending more on
better-quality education, university degrees, and study-abroad programs.
Meanwhile, despite India’s fondness for cricket and “Bollywood”
movies, recreational products and services will take a smaller slice of
household spending there than in other countries.

Transportation, already the largest category of expense after food, will take
a bigger portion of household budgets in coming years, exceeding its share
in all of our benchmark countries. The highest growth will come from car
purchases. Categories such as clothing and household goods are expected
to post slower annual growth relative to overall consumption—6.4 percent
and 6.9 percent, respectively—and thus to lose share of wallet. Yet even
in these categories, growth rates will remain highly attractive as compared
with those in other markets around the world.

What it means for businesses

Three-quarters of India’s consumer market in 2025 doesn’t exist today—
about 52.6 trillion rupees a year in future purchases will be up for grabs.
Also, India’s rapid upward mobility means that many of India’s households
60 The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 3

will be new consumers, enjoying significant discretionary consumption

in the organized economy for the first time in their lives. Incumbents and
challengers alike face a sea change. India’s incumbents, mostly domestic
companies, will start with many advantages: existing relationships with
customers, an understanding of their needs, and recognized brands.
The incumbents also have established distribution channels—very impor-
tant in a country of vast geography and limited infrastructure.

But growing incomes and consumption will pressure incumbents from

two directions. First, such companies must adjust to the pace and magni-
tude of change, for as consumers rise through the income brackets,
their needs, tastes, aspirations, and brand loyalties will evolve along with
their lifestyles. Second, India’s growing consumption will attract
a raft of challengers, and ongoing economic reform will significantly
intensify competition in many markets. New competition will come
from multinationals entering the Indian market, from established Indian
companies looking for expansion opportunities, and from entrepre-
neurs. Indeed, if the country’s policy makers create the conditions for
India’s entrepreneurs to succeed, major new companies could be built
on the back of consumer growth.

Many incumbents haven’t prepared enough for this discontinuity. They

will have to develop a deep understanding of how the consumer’s needs
and aspirations will change as incomes grow and find ways of creating
innovative products that meet those changing needs. In addition, they must
think about how they should introduce new consumers to their products,
whether their brands are appropriate for those consumers, and what prices
and cost positions will help them compete most effectively for a share
of this new middle-class market. Nor is that all: incumbents will have to
keep a wary eye on the actions of their current competitors and on new
market entrants. That’s a full agenda, and companies that begin preparing
today will be in the best position to benefit from the changes.

For attackers, the challenge will be to spot the gaps and opportunities that
arise as India’s income and class structure change; they might, for
example, ask themselves where small markets or limited competition, or
both, have served middle-class consumers poorly. Attackers could also
turn to other emerging economies to seek lessons on how tastes and needs
will likely evolve in India, perhaps looking in particular for categories
in which spending shifted from local products and brands to international
ones as aspirations rose. Attackers seeking to exploit these changes
should consider what new needs will be unique to Indian tastes and the
market as the middle class grows.
 Tracking the growth of India’s middle class 61

In India, as in many emerging markets, multinational companies will find

themselves squeezed between the desire of the country’s consumers for
a modern middle-class lifestyle and the realities of their limited budgets.
In 2005 the average middle-class family spent just over 300,000 rupees
annually—roughly $6,600—a very modest sum in real terms, but in PPP
terms equal to around $35,000. As one multinational executive noted,
however, “You can’t put PPP dollars in the bank, only real dollars.” Multi-
nationals must innovate to deliver an aspirational middle-class lifestyle
to families on an Indian budget. Companies that can develop new business
models, design products with carefully targeted features, and create
brands that appeal to India’s upwardly mobile people will attract huge
numbers of eager consumers.

The future we have described assumes that India will continue on its recent
path of strong growth. There are many reasons to believe that this
assumption is realistic, most notably the scope for improved productivity
in the economy. But India’s outlook depends strongly on continued long-
term economic reforms that are needed to address serious deficiencies in
the country’s infrastructure, modernize the financial system, and promote
investment in human capital through better education and health care.

India’s emergence as the world’s fifth-largest consumer economy will bring

significant benefits to the country and the world. Growth will pull hundreds
of millions of people out of poverty and into the world’s middle class.
With rising incomes, Indians will have the opportunity to realize comforts
and pleasures enjoyed by middle-class families around the world. In
addition, rising domestic consumption will create further economic growth
and employment as companies work to meet the new consumer demand.
For the world’s businesses, India represents one of the largest consumer mar-
ket opportunities of the next two decades. During the first millennium,
merchants referred to India’s glittering and dynamic market as the “bird of
gold.” That bird is preparing to take flight again.  Q
The authors wish to thank Jonathan Ablett, Aadarsh Baijal, Anupam Bose, Geoffrey Greene,
and Shishir Gupta for their substantial work on this project and to recognize
Ulrich Gersch, Ezra Greenberg, and Sumit Gupta for important contributions to the project’s
leadership. We would also like to thank Dr. Suman Bery and Dr. Rajesh Shukla
for access to NCAER’s data and for very helpful input into the project.

Eric Beinhocker is with the McKinsey Global Institute,

where Diana Farrell is director; Adil Zainulbhai is a director in the Mumbai office.
Copyright © 2007 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.

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