Mahindra CIE What Is Holding Back MHCIE Stock
Mahindra CIE What Is Holding Back MHCIE Stock
Mahindra CIE What Is Holding Back MHCIE Stock
Mahindra CIE
India Research
Bloomberg: MACA IN
COMPANY UPDATE Reuters: MAHN.NS BUY
What is Holding Back MHCIE Stock? Recommendation
CMP: Rs157
The stock price of Mahindra CIE (MHCIE), MNC auto ancillary Company, has Target Price: Rs244
witnessed huge underperformance despite improvement in it’s A) Fundamentals Previous Target Price Rs244
(Higher Earnings, Lower leverage, improving Margins etc) B) MNC status and C) Upside (%) 55.4%
superior corporate governance. The stock is quoting at almost 50% discount to Stock Information
sectoral valuations. We are perplexed by the scenario and tried to analyze the Market Cap. (Rsbn / US$ mn) 60/830
reason behind the same in the present research note. 52-week High/Low (Rs) 302/135
3m ADV (Rsmn /US$ mn) 28/0
MHCIE which came into existence in December 2014 with strategic alliance Beta 1.1
between Mahindra & Mahindra and CIE Automotive Spain (CIE). Post merger, Sensex/ Nifty 37,145/11,003
MHCIE, has reported remarkable improvement in its financial performance over Share outstanding (mn) 379
Aug-19
Mar-19
Nov-18
Dec-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
with itself is not being reflected in the current stock price.
MNC Parentage – MHCIE is subsidiary of the CIE Automotive group of Spain Sensex (LHS) Mahindra CIE
(56% stake). CIE is an European industrial group specialized in supplying auto Source: Bloomberg
components to the automotive market. It has presence across the globe and is listed
on the stock exchanges in Madrid and Bilbao.
Key Financials:
Y/E (Rs mn) CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19E CY20E
Net Sales 53,198 65,709 80,315 87,950 94,965
EBIDTA 5,311 9,648 10,510 11,416 12,610
EBIDTA Margin (%) 10.0 14.7 13.1 13.0 13.3
PAT 1,780 5,240 5,485 5,662 6,159
YoY (%) 15.2 194.4 4.7 3.2 8.8
EPS (Rs) 4.7 13.8 14.5 14.9 16.3 Analysts Contact
ROCE (%) 6.4 12.5 11.4 10.4 10.5 Mahesh Bendre
ROE (%) +91 22 6176 0828
6.8 15.0 13.7 12.4 11.9
[email protected]
PE (x) 33.3 11.3 10.8 10.5 9.7
Source: Karvy Stock Broking
Mahindra CIE
Corporate governance: MHCIE has one of the best corporate governance practices in
terms of dealing with various stake holders (adequate disclosures and transparent
communications).
Consolidation Trigger: Also, CIE automotive plans to merge its other Forging Plants
based in ROW (China/Brazil/Mexico) to MHCIE India over the next 18 months.
Dependence on Europe and Mahindra Group – Many investors are concerned with
MHCIE’s high dependence on its European business (~55% of sales) and M&M Group
(~16% of sales).
Inorganic Growth Strategy – Investors are also apprehensive about inorganic growth
strategy adopted by MHCIE Management. Growth through acquisitions brings in
additional risk of integration related issues and Goodwill in the Balance sheet. High
goodwill on balance sheet restricts meaningful ROE and ROCE expansion in the
medium term.
Business Structure – CIE holds ~56% stake in the Company while M&M holds ~11%
stake. Despite CIE being a majority shareholder, many investors believe that M&M still
has lot more hold on the Company as it carries Mahindra Brand Name and top
hierarchy of the Management.
Non Payment of Dividend: Some investors have also raised the concerns on non-
payment of dividend by the Company.
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
What we think…
Inorganic Growth Strategy: CIE, Parent company of MHCIE has grown through a
combination of organic and inorganic route. Since 1996, CIE has successfully done
more than 70 M&A in Europe, North America, South America and Asia. Even the
international investors have appreciated CIE’s efforts as CIE’s stock listed on Madrid
stock exchange has appreciated by 15% CAGR over the last five years. Meanwhile, in
India, MHCIE has also successfully integrated two acquisitions. Given the experience
and track record of CIE, we believe MHCIE is likely to be highly successful in its
strategy of growth through inorganic opportunity.
Dependence on Europe and Mahindra Group: Over the last three years, European
business contribution to MHCIE’s sales has fallen from ~68% to ~55%. We foresee this
contribution to decline further over the next 2-3 years as the Company scales up its
Indian operations through organic and inorganic route. Also M&M’s contribution to
MHCIE’s overall sales stands at ~16% and thus does not drive overall sales of MHCIE
in a major way.
Non Payment of Dividend: As per the Management, MHCIE needs significant funds
for its organic and inorganic growth plans in India. Present Indian FDI regulations do
not permit MHCIE (Indian Company owned by foreign majority) to acquire Indian
companies through domestic borrowing. Hence, MHCIE has not been able to pay any
dividend to shareholders. However, management is hopeful of finding solution to this
problem and is likely to become a dividend paying company in the medium term.
Business Structure: We understand, going by the CIE’s track record and its
Management intentions, there is a high probability that CIE is likely to take full control
of MHCIE in terms of Management bandwidth over the next 12-18 months.
In spite of muted growth expectation of 8.7% sales CAGR and 6% PAT CAGR over
CY18-20, the MHCIE stock, based on CY20 estimates is quoting at attractive valuations
of PE of 9.7x, EV/EBITDA of 5.0x and P/B of 1x. The stock is quoting at almost 50%
discount to sectoral valuations (Refer page No.5) which we believe is unjustified. The
Company is expected to generate Rs19bn operating cash over CY18-20E. We believe,
the Company has completed its consolidation phase and likely to enter into growth
phase through organic and inorganic route. Given the stable business growth outlook,
improvement in balance sheet and decent return ratios, we believe stock is due for
rerating. We maintain our "BUY" rating on the stock with a price target of Rs. 244 (PE
of 15xCY20E earnings).
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
12500 350
11500
300
10500
9500 250
8500
200
7500
6500 150
06-Dec-17 06-Mar-18 06-Jun-18 06-Sep-18 06-Dec-18 06-Mar-19 06-Jun-19 06-Sep-19
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
Relative Valuation
*Mahindra CIE 10.5 9.7 6.1 5.0 1.2 1.1 12.4 11.9
Minda Corp 13.4 10.5 7.5 6.4 1.7 1.5 13.5 15.0
Minda Industries 27.5 20.0 12.3 10.1 4.2 3.6 17.0 18.5
Amara Raja Batteries 19.7 17.6 10.0 8.9 2.9 2.6 15.6 15.6
Endurance Technologies 27.0 24.5 11.8 10.6 4.7 4.1 18.7 19.4
Exide Industries 17.2 15.8 8.68 8.05 2.3 2.1 14.1 13.9
Bharat Forge 22.4 18.7 12.6 10.6 3.0 2.7 14.5 15.2
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
MHCIE India EBT Margin (%) 7.5% 9.4% (187) 10.9% (332)
MHCIE Europe EBT Margin (%) 7.9% 9.1% (115) 8.3% (36)
Consolidated EBT Margin (%) 7.8% 9.2% (149) 9.3% (158)
Source: Company, Karvy Stock Broking
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
Financials
Exhibit 6: Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E Mar (Rs mn) CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19E CY20E
Net sales 53,198 65,709 80,315 87,950 94,965
YoY (%) 33.0 23.5 22.2 9.5 8.0
Raw Material 21,443 28,162 36,316 40,340 43,558
Employee Cost 11,025 11,527 13,297 14,435 15,397
SGA cost 15,419 16,372 20,192 21,760 23,400
Total Expenses 47,887 56,061 69,805 76,534 82,355
EBIDTA 5,311 9,648 10,510 11,416 12,610
EBIDTA Margin (%) 10.0 14.7 13.1 13.0 13.3
Depreciation 2,325 2,683 2,867 3,402 3,902
EBIT 2,986 6,965 7,643 8,014 8,708
Interest 594 510 502 436 347
Other Income 314 268 387 511 438
PBT 2,706 6,723 7,528 8,089 8,799
(-) Tax 926 1,483 2,043 2,427 2,640
Tax/ PBT 34.2 22.1 27.1 30.0 30.0
PAT 1,780 5,240 5,485 5,662 6,159
YoY (%) 15.2 194.4 4.7 3.2 8.8
Source: Company, Karvy Stock Broking
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
Exhibit 9: Ratios
Key Ratios CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19E CY20E
EPS (Rs) 4.7 13.8 14.5 14.9 16.3
Book value (Rs/share) 86.4 98.2 113.2 128.2 144.4
P/E (x) 33.3 11.3 10.8 10.5 9.7
EV/EBDITA (x) 13.4 7.1 6.3 6.1 5.0
P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1
EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7
ROCE (%) 6.4 12.5 11.4 10.4 10.5
ROE (%) 6.8 15.0 13.7 12.4 11.9
Debt-Equity (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Gross Asset Turnover (x) 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.3
Working Capital Days -33 -17 -12 -8 -7
W/C % of sales -5.4% -5.1% -2.6% -1.9% -2%
Source: Company, Karvy Stock Broking
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Sep 11, 2019
Mahindra CIE
Disclosures Appendix
Analyst certification
The following analyst(s), Mahesh Bendre, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/are
mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about
the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or
indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.
Disclaimer
Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL]is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INH200003265
).KSBLis also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial
products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and
Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter,
Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty
services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling
and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies
whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are
prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on
information obtained from public sources , the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be
reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report
and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or
reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information
herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may
be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on
investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and
information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or
solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all
the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat
recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your
specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred
based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors.
Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial
position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or
analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL
accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to
see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past
performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and
may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections.
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Mahindra CIE
Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or
might have been mandated by the subject
Stock company for any other
Ratings assignment
Absolute in the past twelve months.
Returns
Buy : > 15%
Associates of KSBL might haveHold received compensation
: from the subject company mentioned in the report
5-15%
during the period preceding twelveSell months from the
: date of
< 5% report for investment banking or merchant
this
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as
Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and
underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services,
For further
realty services, data processing, profiling enquiries
and related please
services contact:
or in any other capacity.
[email protected]
KSBL encourages independence in research report
Tel: preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation
+91-22-61491500
of research report.
Disclosures
Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) Appendix
is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment
banking or brokerage service transactions.
Analyst certification
KSBL
The following analyst(s),
generally Mahesh
prohibits its Bendre,
analysts,who is (are)
persons primarily
reporting toresponsible
analysts andfor their
this report andfrom
relatives whosemaintaining
name(s) is/are
a
mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their)
financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. personal view(s) about
the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or
KSBL related
indirectly to the specific
or its associates recommendation(s)
collectively or views do
or Research Analysts contained
not ownin 1%
thisor
research
more ofreport.
the equity securities of the
Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research
report.
Disclaimer
Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL]is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INH200003265
KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the
).KSBLis also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial
report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the
products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and
subject company mentioned in this report.
Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter,
Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty
Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of
services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling
publication of this report.
and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies
whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are
It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/
prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on
are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned
information obtained from public sources , the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be
in the report in the preceding twelve months.
reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report
and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be
It is confirmed that Mahesh Bendre, Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the
altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or
companies mentioned in the report.
reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information
herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may
KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the
be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on
information presented in this report.
investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and
information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or
Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies
solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all
mentioned in the report.
the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat
recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting
accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your
Equity Research Analyst activities.
specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred
based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors.
Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial
position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or
analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL
accepts any liability arising from the use of information
Karvy Stock Brokingand viewsLimited
mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to
see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated
Office No. 701, 7 Floor, Hallmark Business Plaza, Opp.-Gurunanak
th before investing in the securities
Hospital, Mumbai 400 051 markets. Past
performance is No.31,
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FinancialForward-looking statements
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change withoutResearch
notice.is also available
Actual on: Bloomberg
results - KRVY
may differ <GO>, Thomson
materially Publisher
from those set&forth
Reuters.
in projections.
11
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