Internship Report A Study On The Applicability of Graham'S Portfolio Model in Indian Equity Markets Using Nse-500 Index Adhithya.K.S
Internship Report A Study On The Applicability of Graham'S Portfolio Model in Indian Equity Markets Using Nse-500 Index Adhithya.K.S
Internship Report A Study On The Applicability of Graham'S Portfolio Model in Indian Equity Markets Using Nse-500 Index Adhithya.K.S
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CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that this internship work on “A Study on the analysis of NSE
500 companies using Graham’s portfolio model using the Nifty-500 index” is
done by ADHITHYA.K.S, MBA class of 2018- 2020 under my supervisions for
the partial fulfilment of MBA program and the report is not submitted to any other
Institute/University.
During this internship, he successfully achieved the target assigned to him. I wish
him all the very best in all of his future endeavours.
Faculty guide,
Dr.P.S.Manjula Dr.R.Thenmozhi,
M.Sc.,M.B.A.,Ph.D., M.B.A.,M.Phil.,Ph.D.,
Assistant Professor Professor and Head,
Department of Management Studies Department of Management Studies
University of Madras University of Madras
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DECLARATION
fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree Master of Business
Administration. This summer internship has not been submitted to any other
Date:
Signature
(ADHITHYA K S)
Place: Chennai
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I convey my deepest and sincere gratitude to Dr. P.S.MANJULA, M.Sc.,
MBA, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Management studies,
University of Madras for providing me this opportunity and necessary suggestions
and support in completing this project.
I am obliged to thank all those who have helped me to finish the project
successfully.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
2 OBJECTIVES 2
3 SCOPE OF STUDY 2
4 NSE INDICES 3
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1. INTRODUCTION
“The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the
waiting.”
Benjamin Graham’s portfolio model is all about Value Investing. Value
investing is an approach that is widely used today by individual investors and
portfolio managers. In simple words, it is the strategy of investing in
stocks that trade at less than their intrinsic values. In other words, the
goal of value investors is to determine companies that they believe are
undervalued relative to the market or are trading at a discount to their
intrinsic worth. A stock might trade at a discount to its intrinsic value due
to reasons like a dent in the company’s earnings or a one-off event that
may have depressed the stock price. A value investor would look at it as a
long-term investment opportunity. Warren Buffet, the Leader of
Berkshire Hathway built his wealth solely through value investing
principles using Benjamin Graham as his mentor. This is why Benjamin
Graham is known as “The Father of Value Investing.”
The Study has been done in the form of two months internship program
with Gostocks Advisors Pvt. Ltd
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2. OBJECTIVES
3. SCOPE OF STUDY
The Benefit of the study is that it gave a meticulous knowledge on the
application of Value Investing portfolio models in the Indian stock markets.
The study focused on analysing the Nifty 500 companies and selection of the
qualifying stocks from the Nifty 500 universe for building the portfolio as per
the Benjamin Graham Model and backtesting it over an 8 year period to
conclude whether the strategy really beats the market performance with respect
to the NIFTY 500 index.
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4. NSE INDICES
Under this structure, there are 13 broad market indices as shown below:
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4.1 TYPES OF NIFTY INDEX
1. NIFTY 500:
NIFTY 500 represents the top 500 companies based on full market
capitalisation from the eligible universe.
2. NIFTY 100:
5. NIFTY 50:
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6. NIFTY Next 50:
NIFTY 200 includes all companies forming part of NIFTY 100 and
NIFTY Midcap 100 index.
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12. NIFTY LargeMidcap 250
It includes all companies from NIFTY 100 and NIFTY Midcap 150. It
intends to measure performance of the large and mid-market
capitalisation companies.
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4.2 CORPORATE ACTIONS AND SHARE UPDATES
Changes entailing less than 5% impact on the issued share capital or a free-float
are accumulated and implemented from the first working day after F&O expiry
of March, June, September and December after providing five working days’
prior notice.
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Formatted: Centered
4.3 INDEX GOVERNANCE
A professional team at NSE Indices Limited manages the index. NSE Indices
Limited has constituted the Index Advisory Committee (Equity), which
provides guidance on macro issues pertaining to equity indices. The Index
Maintenance Sub-committee makes all decisions on additions and deletions of
companies in equity indices and Index Advisory Committee (Debt) provides
guidance on macro issues pertaining to fixed income indices. The Committees
comprises of representatives from financial market such as Asset Management
Company, insurance company, rating agency etc. In order to maintain
transparency, the names of the committee member are publicly displayed on the
website. None of the member in the above committee except the exchange
representative(s) (who co-ordinates between the Index Advisory Committee -
Equity and IMSC) represent more than one committee and thereby the
independence of each of the committees is maintained.
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5. ABOUT NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA
LIMITED (NSE)
The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) is the leading stock exchange
in India and the third largest in the world by nos. of trades in equity shares in
2017, according to World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) report. NSE was the
first exchange in India to implement electronic or screen based trading. It began
operations in 1994 and is ranked as the largest stock exchange in India in terms
of total and average daily turnover for equity shares every year since 1995,
based on SEBI data. NSE has a fully-integrated business model comprising
exchange listings, trading services, clearing and settlement services, indices,
market data feeds, technology solutions and financial education offerings. NSE
also oversees compliance by trading and clearing members with the rules and
regulations of the exchange. NSE is a pioneer in technology and ensures the
reliability and performance of its systems through a culture of innovation and
investment in technology. NSE believes that the scale and breadth of its
products and services, sustained leadership positions across multiple asset
classes in India and globally enable it to be highly reactive to market demands
and changes and deliver innovation in both trading and non-trading businesses
to provide high quality data and services to market participants and clients.
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6. GRAHAM’S PORTFOLIO MODEL
Value Investing focuses on the fundamental numbers on the financial
statements, Benjamin Graham suggested two parameters for stock selection.
Namely,
1. Price to Earnings ratio
2. Debt Equity ratio
He recommended that an investor create a portfolio of a minimum of 30 stocks
Meeting,
And then hold those stocks until they had returned 50 percent, or, if a stock
hadn't met that return objective by the “end of the second calendar year from the
time of Purchase, sell it regardless of price.”
Graham said that his research suggested that this formula returned
approximately 15 percent per year over the preceding 50 years. He cautioned,
however, that an investor should not expect 15 percent every year. The
minimum period of time to determine the likely performance of the strategy was
five years.
For avoiding bias in selection the stock selection has been uniformly from all
the available sectors in the eligible universe
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6.1. SIGNIFICANCE OF PRICE EARNINGS RATIO
Price Earnings ratio is the expression of the Money value that the investor is
willing to pay for one unit of earning of the company.
A Higher PE ratio will infer that the Investor has higher expectations on the
earnings of the company over the future possibly resulting in overvaluation.
Conversely, a low P/E might indicate that the current stock price is low relative
to earnings. Companies with Abnormally higher PE ratio but relatively less
earnings would command such high PE ratio due to the Expectations from the
investors in the market and Vice Versa.
A Lower PE would indicate that the share of the company is undervalued in the
sense that the company is performing exceptionally by having the EPS very
nearer to the Market price of its shares.
Mathematically when the numerator and denominator are closer values the
resulting multiple will be a smaller number.
Moreover, leverage can skew P/E ratios as well. For example, suppose there are
two similar companies that differ primarily in the amount of debt they take on.
The one with more debt will likely have a lower P/E value than the one with
less debt. However, if business is good, the one with more debt stands to see
higher earnings because of the risks it has taken.
P/E ratio is highly dependent on capital structure. Leverage (i.e. debt taken on
by the company) affects both earnings and share price in a variety of ways,
including the leveraging of earnings growth rates, tax effects and impacts on the
risk of bankruptcy, and can sometimes dramatically affect the company’s
results. Thus, lower the leverage, higher the P/E ratio.
As a result, high capital intensive industry gets lower P/E than low capital
intensive industry.
PE ratio is chosen as one of the parameters to for selection in order to pull out
the undervalued stocks which would potentially give a long run growth in the
investment.
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FORMULA:
LIMITATIONS OF PE RATIO
1. In the times of high inflation, PE ratio will be lower, which makes
valuation difficult.
2. The financial statements of the companies are subject to manipulation. As
PE ratio is a valuation from the fundamental numbers, there are always
higher chances of it giving a false signal when the company has
manipulated its financials.
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6.2. SIGNIFICANCE OF DEBT-EQUITY RATIO
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7. DATA COLLECTION
The Data required for the study was in the form of secondary data which was
collected from software called “Ace Equity”
The data comprised of the Price Earnings ratio, Debt Equity ratio, Market
capitalization of the nifty 500 companies for the time period starting from
March 2009 to March 2018.
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1.STANDARD DEVIATION OF THE PORTFOLIO
Standard deviation of portfolio return measures the variability of the expected
rate of return of a portfolio.
3.RETURN ON INVESTMENT
Return on Investment is the rate of return that was generated by the portfolio
out of the investment made in the beginning of the two year period.
4.INFORMATION RATIO
The information ratio measures the risk-adjusted returns of a financial asset
or portfolio relative to a certain benchmark. This ratio aims to show excess
returns relative to the benchmark, as well as the consistency in generating the
excess returns. The consistency of generating excess returns is measured by
the tracking error. The Benchmark used here is the NIFTY500 index.
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7.2 BACKTESTING
Backtesting is a key component of effective trading-system development. It is
accomplished by reconstructing, with historical data, trades that would have
occurred in the past using rules defined by a given strategy. The result offers
statistics to gauge the effectiveness of the strategy.
The underlying theory is that any strategy that worked well in the past is likely
to work well in the future, and conversely, any strategy that performed poorly in
the past is likely to perform poorly in the future.
A well-conducted backtest that yields positive results assures traders that the
strategy is fundamentally sound and is likely to yield profits when implemented
in reality. A well-conducted backtest that yields suboptimal results will prompt
traders to alter or reject the strategy. Particularly complicated trading strategies,
such as strategies implemented by automated trading systems, rely heavily on
backtesting to prove their worth, as they are too arcane to evaluate otherwise.
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7.4EXCEL WORKINGS
PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2009 to MARCH 2011
Market Price No. of
S.NO Company Name Sector 2009 2011 Shares Investment Realised Profits Weights CAGR% Returns%
1 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. ENERGY 114.13 194.20 325 ₹ 37,093.33 ₹ 63,115.00 ₹ 26,021.67 0.04 30.44% 70.15%
2 Steel Authority Of India Ltd. METALS 82.85 169.60 447 ₹ 37,033.95 ₹ 75,811.20 ₹ 38,777.25 0.04 43.08% 104.71%
3 Wipro Ltd. IT 55.83 180.08 663 ₹ 37,017.78 ₹ 1,19,389.73 ₹ 82,371.95 0.04 79.59% 222.52%
4 Hindustan Zinc Ltd. METALS 35.95 137.80 1,030 ₹ 37,028.50 ₹ 1,41,934.00 ₹ 1,04,905.50 0.04 95.78% 283.31%
5 Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. ENERGY 42.45 64.50 872 ₹ 37,016.40 ₹ 56,244.00 ₹ 19,227.60 0.04 23.27% 51.94%
6 Bharat Electronics Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 23.46 51.01 1,579 ₹ 37,046.69 ₹ 80,543.35 ₹ 43,496.67 0.04 47.45% 117.41%
7 Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd. IT 466.10 1986.70 79 ₹ 36,821.90 ₹ 1,56,949.30 ₹ 1,20,127.40 0.04 106.46% 326.24%
8 CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 81.66 272.75 454 ₹ 37,072.34 ₹ 1,23,828.50 ₹ 86,756.16 0.04 82.76% 234.02%
9 Cummins India Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 159.93 498.50 232 ₹ 37,103.43 ₹ 1,15,652.00 ₹ 78,548.57 0.04 76.55% 211.70%
10 Shipping Corporation Of India Ltd. SERVICES 83.95 107.45 441 ₹ 37,021.95 ₹ 47,385.45 ₹ 10,363.50 0.04 13.13% 27.99%
11 Tech Mahindra Ltd. IT 65.31 169.04 567 ₹ 37,032.19 ₹ 95,844.26 ₹ 58,812.08 0.04 60.88% 158.81%
12 Engineers India Ltd. CONSTRUCTION 41.04 152.35 903 ₹ 37,056.86 ₹ 1,37,572.05 ₹ 1,00,515.19 0.04 92.68% 271.25%
13 Thermax Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING 184.75 602.90 201 ₹ 37,134.75 ₹ 1,21,182.90 ₹ 84,048.15 0.04 80.65% 226.33%
14 Akzo Nobel India Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS 415.51 732.17 89 ₹ 36,980.39 ₹ 65,163.13 ₹ 28,182.74 0.04 32.74% 76.21%
15 Voltas Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS 61.15 182.65 606 ₹ 37,056.90 ₹ 1,10,685.90 ₹ 73,629.00 0.04 72.83% 198.69%
16 Pfizer Ltd. PHARMA 508.35 1243.90 73 ₹ 37,109.55 ₹ 90,804.70 ₹ 53,695.15 0.04 56.43% 144.69%
17 Blue Star Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS 153.40 371.45 241 ₹ 36,969.40 ₹ 89,519.45 ₹ 52,550.05 0.04 55.61% 142.14%
18 Birla Corporation Ltd. CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS 127.05 338.70 292 ₹ 37,098.60 ₹ 98,900.40 ₹ 61,801.80 0.04 63.28% 166.59%
19 Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Ltd. PHARMA 42.60 70.40 869 ₹ 37,018.79 ₹ 61,174.40 ₹ 24,155.61 0.04 28.55% 65.25%
20 Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS 56.85 95.50 651 ₹ 37,009.35 ₹ 62,170.50 ₹ 25,161.15 0.04 29.61% 67.99%
21 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES 15.32 68.36 2,418 ₹ 37,043.76 ₹ 1,65,294.48 ₹ 1,28,250.72 0.04 111.24% 346.21%
22 Prism Johnson Ltd. CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS 19.40 52.65 1,909 ₹ 37,034.60 ₹ 1,00,508.85 ₹ 63,474.25 0.04 64.74% 171.39%
23 Gateway Distriparks Ltd. SERVICES 88.20 120.80 420 ₹ 37,044.00 ₹ 50,736.00 ₹ 13,692.00 0.04 17.03% 36.96%
24 Cyient Ltd. IT 51.03 161.75 726 ₹ 37,044.15 ₹ 1,17,430.50 ₹ 80,386.35 0.04 78.05% 217.00%
25 Rallis India Ltd. FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES 22.26 131.13 1,664 ₹ 37,046.19 ₹ 2,18,192.00 ₹ 1,81,145.81 0.04 142.69% 488.97%
26 Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS 72.60 127.55 510 ₹ 37,026.00 ₹ 65,050.50 ₹ 28,024.50 0.04 32.55% 75.69%
27 Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. CONSTRUCTION 31.90 43.40 1,161 ₹ 37,035.90 ₹ 50,387.40 ₹ 13,351.50 0.04 16.64% 36.05%
TOTAL ₹ 9,99,997.65 ₹ 26,81,469.95 ₹ 16,81,472.30 1.00 63.75% 168.15%
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PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2010 to MARCH 2012
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PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2011 to MARCH 2013
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PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2012 to MARCH 2014
Market Price
S.NO Company Name Sector Apr, 2012 Mar, 2014 No. of Shares Investment Realised Profit Weights CAGR % Returns%
1 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 179.90 ₹ 212.47 232 ₹ 41,736.80 ₹ 49,292.27 ₹ 7,555.47 0.04 8.68% 18.10%
2 NMDC Ltd. METALS ₹ 165.00 ₹ 139.25 252 ₹ 41,580.00 ₹ 35,091.00 ₹ -6,489.00 0.04 -8.13% -15.61%
3 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 173.87 ₹ 130.70 240 ₹ 41,728.00 ₹ 31,368.00 ₹ -10,360.00 0.04 -13.30% -24.83%
4 Grasim Industries Ltd. CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS ₹ 523.90 ₹ 577.61 80 ₹ 41,912.00 ₹ 46,208.80 ₹ 4,296.80 0.04 5.00% 10.25%
5 Vedanta Ltd. METALS ₹ 192.65 ₹ 188.55 216 ₹ 41,612.40 ₹ 40,726.80 ₹ -885.60 0.04 -1.07% -2.13%
6 Oil India Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 246.53 ₹ 242.03 169 ₹ 41,662.73 ₹ 40,902.23 ₹ -760.50 0.04 -0.92% -1.83%
7 Tech Mahindra Ltd. IT ₹ 179.14 ₹ 448.84 233 ₹ 41,739.04 ₹ 1,04,579.14 ₹ 62,840.10 0.04 58.29% 150.55%
8 Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. METALS ₹ 390.00 ₹ 193.15 107 ₹ 41,730.00 ₹ 20,667.05 ₹ -21,062.95 0.04 -29.63% -50.47%
9 Trent Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 94.65 ₹ 102.83 440 ₹ 41,643.80 ₹ 45,243.00 ₹ 3,599.20 0.04 4.23% 8.64%
10 Hexaware Technologies Ltd. IT ₹ 116.95 ₹ 150.50 356 ₹ 41,634.20 ₹ 53,578.00 ₹ 11,943.80 0.04 13.44% 28.69%
11 Graphite India Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 85.40 ₹ 89.05 488 ₹ 41,675.20 ₹ 43,456.40 ₹ 1,781.20 0.04 2.11% 4.27%
12 Future Consumer Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 8.45 ₹ 4.70 4927 ₹ 41,633.15 ₹ 23,156.90 ₹ -18,476.25 0.04 -25.42% -44.38%
13 Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 126.00 ₹ 181.95 331 ₹ 41,706.00 ₹ 60,225.45 ₹ 18,519.45 0.04 20.17% 44.40%
14 Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 79.69 ₹ 75.89 523 ₹ 41,679.36 ₹ 39,689.16 ₹ -1,990.20 0.04 -2.42% -4.78%
15 Escorts Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 72.85 ₹ 115.25 572 ₹ 41,670.20 ₹ 65,923.00 ₹ 24,252.80 0.04 25.78% 58.20%
16 JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. PHARMA ₹ 64.05 ₹ 128.10 650 ₹ 41,632.50 ₹ 83,265.00 ₹ 41,632.50 0.04 41.42% 100.00%
17 Finolex Cables Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 32.30 ₹ 110.70 1289 ₹ 41,634.70 ₹ 1,42,692.30 ₹ 1,01,057.60 0.04 85.13% 242.72%
18 Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 303.80 ₹ 455.45 137 ₹ 41,620.60 ₹ 62,396.65 ₹ 20,776.05 0.04 22.44% 49.92%
19 Navin Fluorine International Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 72.10 ₹ 69.64 577 ₹ 41,601.70 ₹ 40,182.28 ₹ -1,419.42 0.04 -1.72% -3.41%
20 KNR Construction Ltd. CONSTRUCTION ₹ 24.76 ₹ 17.00 1682 ₹ 41,646.32 ₹ 28,594.00 ₹ -13,052.32 0.04 -17.14% -31.34%
21 Kolte Patil Developers Ltd. CONSTRUCTION ₹ 41.45 ₹ 103.65 1005 ₹ 41,657.25 ₹ 1,04,168.25 ₹ 62,511.00 0.04 58.13% 150.06%
22 Cera Sanitaryware Ltd. CONSTRUCTION ₹ 232.70 ₹ 884.15 179 ₹ 41,653.30 ₹ 1,58,262.85 ₹ 1,16,609.55 0.04 94.92% 279.95%
23 IFB Industries Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 79.85 ₹ 79.20 521 ₹ 41,601.85 ₹ 41,263.20 ₹ -338.65 0.04 -0.41% -0.81%
24 Bliss GVS Pharma Ltd. PHARMA ₹ 23.60 ₹ 45.00 1763 ₹ 41,606.80 ₹ 79,335.00 ₹ 37,728.20 0.04 38.09% 90.68%
₹ 9,99,997.90 ₹ 14,40,266.72 4,40,268.82 1.00 20.01% 44.03%
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PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2013 to MARCH 2015
Market Price No. of
S no Company Name Sector Apr, 2013 Mar, 2015 Shares Investment Realised Profit Weights CAGR% Returns%
1 NMDC Ltd. METALS ₹ 135.15 ₹ 128.75 307 ₹ 41,491.05 ₹ 39,526.25 ₹ -1,964.80 0.04 -2.40% -4.74%
2 Hindustan Zinc Ltd. METALS ₹ 119.95 ₹ 162.15 347 ₹ 41,622.65 ₹ 56,266.05 ₹ 14,643.40 0.04 16.27% 35.18%
3 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 121.67 ₹ 156.90 343 ₹ 41,731.67 ₹ 53,816.70 ₹ 12,085.03 0.04 13.56% 28.96%
4 Oil India Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 254.93 ₹ 227.48 163 ₹ 41,552.78 ₹ 37,078.43 ₹ -4,474.35 0.04 -5.54% -10.77%
5 Grasim Industries Ltd. CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS ₹ 561.82 ₹ 724.47 74 ₹ 41,574.68 ₹ 53,610.78 ₹ 12,036.10 0.04 13.56% 28.95%
6 NLC India Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 67.65 ₹ 69.55 616 ₹ 41,672.40 ₹ 42,842.80 ₹ 1,170.40 0.04 1.39% 2.81%
7 SJVN Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 19.35 ₹ 24.45 2,154 ₹ 41,679.90 ₹ 52,665.30 ₹ 10,985.40 0.04 12.41% 26.36%
8 Engineers India Ltd. CONSTRUCTION ₹ 76.80 ₹ 96.58 543 ₹ 41,702.40 ₹ 52,440.23 ₹ 10,737.83 0.04 12.14% 25.75%
9 TV18 Broadcast Ltd. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT ₹ 27.95 ₹ 30.30 1,491 ₹ 41,673.45 ₹ 45,177.30 ₹ 3,503.85 0.04 4.12% 8.41%
10 Trent Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 99.54 ₹ 146.98 419 ₹ 41,707.26 ₹ 61,584.62 ₹ 19,877.36 0.04 21.52% 47.66%
11 Pfizer Ltd. PHARMA ₹ 1,077.40 ₹ 2,230.15 39 ₹ 42,018.60 ₹ 86,975.85 ₹ 44,957.25 0.04 43.87% 106.99%
12 Network 18 Media & Investment Ltd. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT ₹ 30.85 ₹ 50.05 1,350 ₹ 41,647.50 ₹ 67,567.50 ₹ 25,920.00 0.04 27.37% 62.24%
13 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES ₹ 58.65 ₹ 83.25 710 ₹ 41,641.50 ₹ 59,107.50 ₹ 17,466.00 0.04 19.14% 41.94%
14 PC Jeweller Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 61.68 ₹ 158.80 676 ₹ 41,692.30 ₹ 1,07,348.80 ₹ 65,656.50 0.04 60.46% 157.48%
15 Cyient Ltd. IT ₹ 170.60 ₹ 501.90 244 ₹ 41,626.40 ₹ 1,22,463.60 ₹ 80,837.20 0.04 71.52% 194.20%
16 NIIT Technologies Ltd. IT ₹ 279.85 ₹ 349.30 149 ₹ 41,697.65 ₹ 52,045.70 ₹ 10,348.05 0.04 11.72% 24.82%
17 Astrazeneca Pharma India Ltd. PHARMA ₹ 706.10 ₹ 920.90 59 ₹ 41,659.90 ₹ 54,333.10 ₹ 12,673.20 0.04 14.20% 30.42%
18 Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 187.35 ₹ 159.90 222 ₹ 41,591.70 ₹ 35,497.80 ₹ -6,093.90 0.04 -7.62% -14.65%
19 NBCC (India) Ltd. CONSTRUCTION ₹ 8.34 ₹ 63.80 4,994 ₹ 41,666.61 ₹ 3,18,617.20 ₹ 2,76,950.59 0.04 176.53% 664.68%
20 Allcargo Logistics Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 58.93 ₹ 157.78 707 ₹ 41,659.98 ₹ 1,11,546.93 ₹ 69,886.95 0.04 63.63% 167.76%
21 Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 88.44 ₹ 140.16 471 ₹ 41,653.22 ₹ 66,016.54 ₹ 24,363.32 0.04 25.89% 58.49%
22 Jai Corp Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 53.10 ₹ 55.95 785 ₹ 41,683.50 ₹ 43,920.75 ₹ 2,237.25 0.04 2.65% 5.37%
23 Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 372.90 ₹ 880.95 112 ₹ 41,764.80 ₹ 98,666.40 ₹ 56,901.60 0.04 53.70% 136.24%
24 Navin Fluorine International Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 43.59 ₹ 167.11 954 ₹ 41,584.86 ₹ 1,59,422.94 ₹ 1,17,838.08 0.04 95.80% 283.37%
TOTAL ₹ 9,99,996.74 ₹ 18,78,539.05 ₹ 8,78,542.31 1.00 37.06% 87.85%
21
PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2014 to MARCH 2016
S No Company Name Sector Market Price No. of
Apr, 2014 Mar, 2016 Shares Investment Realised Profit Weights CAGR% Returns%
1 Hindustan Zinc Ltd. METALS ₹ 130.80 ₹ 183.60 450 ₹ 58,860.00 ₹ 82,620.00 ₹ 23,760.00 0.06 18.48% 40.37%
2 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 129.67 ₹ 75.90 454 ₹ 58,868.67 ₹ 34,458.60 ₹ -24,410.07 0.06 -23.49% -41.47%
3 Oil India Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 246.10 ₹ 156.50 239 ₹ 58,817.90 ₹ 37,403.50 ₹ -21,414.40 0.06 -20.26% -36.41%
4 MRF Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 21,669.35 ₹ 38,296.75 3 ₹ 65,008.05 ₹ 1,14,890.25 ₹ 49,882.20 0.07 32.94% 76.73%
5 SJVN Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 21.55 ₹ 28.65 2,707 ₹ 58,335.85 ₹ 77,555.55 ₹ 19,219.70 0.06 15.30% 32.95%
6 Apollo Tyres Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 162.30 ₹ 174.90 359 ₹ 58,265.70 ₹ 62,789.10 ₹ 4,523.40 0.06 3.81% 7.76%
7 Tata Global Beverages Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 154.25 ₹ 121.25 378 ₹ 58,306.50 ₹ 45,832.50 ₹ -12,474.00 0.06 -11.34% -21.39%
8 GE Power India Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 421.25 ₹ 607.45 139 ₹ 58,553.75 ₹ 84,435.55 ₹ 25,881.80 0.06 20.08% 44.20%
9 MMTC Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 35.37 ₹ 24.97 1,650 ₹ 58,355.00 ₹ 41,195.00 ₹ -17,160.00 0.06 -15.98% -29.41%
10 CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 157.35 ₹ 48.85 371 ₹ 58,376.85 ₹ 18,123.35 ₹ -40,253.50 0.06 -44.28% -68.95%
11 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES ₹ 55.10 ₹ 64.25 1,059 ₹ 58,350.90 ₹ 68,040.75 ₹ 9,689.85 0.06 7.98% 16.61%
12 Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 107.00 ₹ 366.80 545 ₹ 58,315.00 ₹ 1,99,906.00 ₹ 1,41,591.00 0.06 85.15% 242.80%
14 Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. METALS ₹ 133.55 ₹ 65.40 437 ₹ 58,361.35 ₹ 28,579.80 ₹ -29,781.55 0.06 -30.02% -51.03%
15 Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 76.60 ₹ 143.23 760 ₹ 58,216.00 ₹ 1,08,851.00 ₹ 50,635.00 0.06 36.74% 86.98%
16 Sonata Software Ltd. IT ₹ 46.15 ₹ 145.75 1,265 ₹ 58,379.75 ₹ 1,84,373.75 ₹ 1,25,994.00 0.06 77.71% 215.82%
17 Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 183.95 ₹ 165.55 317 ₹ 58,312.15 ₹ 52,479.35 ₹ -5,832.80 0.06 -5.13% -10.00%
18 Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. METALS ₹ 197.65 ₹ 143.75 295 ₹ 58,306.75 ₹ 42,406.25 ₹ -15,900.50 0.06 -14.72% -27.27%
Total ₹ 9,99,990.17 ₹ 12,83,940.30 ₹ 2,83,950.13 1.00 13.31% 28.40%
22
PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2015 to MARCH 2017
23
PORTFOLIO OF THE PERIOD APRIL 2016 to MARCH 2018
Market Price No of
S No Stock Name Sector Apr,2016 Mar,2018 Shares Investment Realised Profit Weights CAGR % Returns %
1 MRF Ltd. AUTOMOBILE ₹ 34,716.00 ₹ 69,236.00 2 ₹ 69,432.00 ₹ 1,38,472.00 ₹ 69,040.00 0.07 41.22% 99.44%
2 GE Power India Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 571.30 ₹ 861.00 102 ₹ 58,272.60 ₹ 87,822.00 ₹ 29,549.40 0.06 22.76% 50.71%
3 Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 360.00 ₹ 1,111.00 162 ₹ 58,320.00 ₹ 1,79,982.00 ₹ 1,21,662.00 0.06 75.67% 208.61%
4 Intellect Design Arena Ltd. IT ₹ 189.75 ₹ 160.00 306 ₹ 58,063.50 ₹ 48,960.00 ₹ -9,103.50 0.06 -8.17% -15.68%
5 Hindustan Zinc Ltd. METALS ₹ 171.50 ₹ 301.45 339 ₹ 58,138.50 ₹ 1,02,191.55 ₹ 44,053.05 0.06 32.58% 75.77%
6 Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. CHEMICALS ₹ 164.40 ₹ 708.85 354 ₹ 58,197.60 ₹ 2,50,932.90 ₹ 1,92,735.30 0.06 107.65% 331.17%
7 Oil India Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 156.65 ₹ 233.30 371 ₹ 58,117.15 ₹ 86,554.30 ₹ 28,437.15 0.06 22.04% 48.93%
8 Sonata Software Ltd. IT ₹ 152.25 ₹ 310.25 382 ₹ 58,159.50 ₹ 1,18,515.50 ₹ 60,356.00 0.06 42.75% 103.78%
9 Maharashtra Seamless Ltd. METALS ₹ 142.35 ₹ 427.30 408 ₹ 58,078.80 ₹ 1,74,338.40 ₹ 1,16,259.60 0.06 73.26% 200.18%
10 Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 137.00 ₹ 216.00 424 ₹ 58,088.00 ₹ 91,584.00 ₹ 33,496.00 0.06 25.56% 57.66%
11 Tata Global Beverages Ltd. CONSUMER GOODS ₹ 118.90 ₹ 272.40 489 ₹ 58,142.10 ₹ 1,33,203.60 ₹ 75,061.50 0.06 51.36% 129.10%
12 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 77.60 ₹ 81.40 750 ₹ 58,200.00 ₹ 61,050.00 ₹ 2,850.00 0.06 2.42% 4.90%
13 Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. METALS ₹ 65.40 ₹ 121.70 889 ₹ 58,140.60 ₹ 1,08,191.30 ₹ 50,050.70 0.06 36.41% 86.09%
14 Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES ₹ 65.40 ₹ 116.30 889 ₹ 58,140.60 ₹ 1,03,390.70 ₹ 45,250.10 0.06 33.35% 77.83%
15 CG Power & Industrial Solutions Ltd. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING ₹ 47.70 ₹ 73.00 1,219 ₹ 58,146.30 ₹ 88,987.00 ₹ 30,840.70 0.06 23.71% 53.04%
16 SJVN Ltd. ENERGY ₹ 29.05 ₹ 34.35 2,003 ₹ 58,187.15 ₹ 68,803.05 ₹ 10,615.90 0.06 8.74% 18.24%
17 MMTC Ltd. SERVICES ₹ 23.85 ₹ 36.35 2,439 ₹ 58,170.15 ₹ 88,657.65 ₹ 30,487.50 0.06 23.45% 52.41%
Total ₹ 9,99,994.55 ₹ 19,31,635.95 ₹ 9,31,641.40 1.00 38.98% 93.16%
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COVARIANCE
Covariance is used in portfolio theory to determine what assets to include in the portfolio. Covariance is a statistical measure of the
directional relationship between two asset prices. Portfolio theory uses this statistical measurement to reduce the overall risk for a
portfolio. A positive covariance means that assets generally move in the same direction. Negative covariance means assets generally
move in opposite directions. Correlation Coefficient is the best measure of covariance
Company Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd.
Sector CHEMICALS FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES
Correlation 90.82%
Covariance 28.61%
Inference
As the resultant number is positive, the two stocks had a positive covariance with respect to the returns
And they have a high positive correlation, with respect to their movement in the returns
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INFORMATION RATIO
Returns
26
7.5 SECTOR-WISE HIGHEST AVERAGE RETURN
2009-11
350.00% 330.73%
300.00%
250.00%
214.05%
197.46%
200.00%
174.90%
160.50%
150.00% 136.30%
106.58%
100.00% 83.25% 77.54% 77.52%
49.87%
50.00%
0.00%
PHARMA
ENERGY
CONSUMER GOODS
SERVICES
IT
METALS
CHEMICALS
CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS
Average Return
27
120.00%
106.41% 2010-12
100.00%
86.97%
80.00%
60.00%
45.84%
38.03%
40.00% 32.44%
20.00%
6.91%
0.00%
-1.45%
-5.36%
-20.00%
-24.59%
-40.00%
PHARMA
METALS
AUTOMOBILE
CONSUMER GOODS
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
IT
CHEMICALS
CONSTRUCTION
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS
Average Return
28
2011-13
Average Return
100.00%
81.92%
80.00%
60.00%
47.16%
40.00%
18.44%
20.00% 9.81%
3.98%
0.00%
-20.00% -8.77%
PHARMA
ENERGY
CONSUMER GOODS
IT
METALS
CHEMICALS
CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS
29
2012-14
Average Return
160.00%
140.00% 132.89%
120.00%
100.00% 95.34%
89.62%
80.00% 74.06%
60.00% 54.06%
40.00%
20.50%
20.00% 10.25% 8.14%
0.00%
-4.78%
-20.00% -12.18%
-22.74%
-40.00%
CEMENT & CEMENT PRODUCTS
ENERGY
PHARMA
AUTOMOBILE
SERVICES
CONSUMER GOODS
IT
METALS
CHEMICALS
CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
30
2013-15
Average Return
400.00%
345.22%
350.00%
300.00%
250.00%
200.00%
PHARMA
ENERGY
AUTOMOBILE
CONSUMER GOODS
SERVICES
IT
METALS
CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
31
250.00%
2014-16
215.82%
200.00%
150.00%
110.70%
100.00%
50.00% 42.25%
28.79%
16.61%
0.00%
-1.73%
-10.00% -12.64%
-22.07%
-50.00%
SERVICES
ENERGY
AUTOMOBILE
CONSUMER GOODS
METALS
IT
CHEMICALS
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
FERTILISERS & PESTICIDES
Average Return
32
2015-17
Average Return
200.00% 187.44%
152.23%
150.00%
100.00%
83.06%
74.24%
55.68%
45.82% 48.79%
50.00%
28.39%
5.20%
0.00%
-5.49%
-12.19%
-50.00%
PHARMA
ENERGY
TELECOM
AUTOMOBILE
CONSUMER GOODS
METALS
IT
SERVICES
CHEMICALS
33
2016-18
Average Return
350.00% 331.17%
300.00%
250.00%
200.00%
168.86%
150.00%
120.68%
99.44%
100.00%
55.68% 55.04%
50.00% 36.22% 33.59% 36.22%
0.00%
METALS
ENERGY
AUTOMOBILE
CONSUMER GOODS
IT
SERVICES
CHEMICALS
INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING
34
8. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION
The results of the backtested data shows that Graham’s Portfolio model would
have outperformed the Market right from the year 2009 till the end of 2018,
Almost a Decade.
This clearly depicts the importance of analysing companies with low Price
Earnings ratio and identifying the potential undervalued companies which
would generate promising returns in the future.
The Time period with the Highest return was 2009-2011 with 168.15 %
And the Time period with the lowest return was 2011-2013 with 11.33%.
The information ratio is a crucial assessing factor which shows that the portfolio
is able to generate excess return subject to the existing risk and volatility with
respect to the benchmark (NIFTY 500 index in this case).
The Test has been carried out in Eight “Two year” time periods and the
portfolio performance has been assessed with Return on Investment,
Compounded Annual Growth Rate, Standard Deviation.
Further as a part of risk assessing, Covariance has been calculated between two
stocks which resulted in a positive number 28.61% and indicated identical
movement in their prices.
And Information ratio tells the investor how much the active returns of the
portfolio has outperformed the Benchmark index with respect to the volatility. It
shows how consistently the portfolio returns have outperformed the market
benchmark index. A higher resultant number indicates the consistency of the
portfolio return outperforming the benchmark index.
The resulted number was 169.4% which shows the consistency of the portfolio
to generate risk adjusted returns over the years from 2009 to 2018.
Further to make the analysis more deeper, the industrial sector wise comparison
was introduced and year on year the sector with the highest average return was
found for the purpose of keeping a track on the performance of that particular
industrial sector(s).
35
9. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books:
1. Wesley.R.Grey, “Quantitative Value – A Practitioner’s guide to
automating intelligent investment and elimination behavioural errors”
Websites:
1. screener.in
2. nseindia.com
3. tradingview.com
4. moneycontrol.com
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