Informality in the Process of

Development and Growth

Norman V. Loayza
Macroeconomics and Growth Team

http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/policy-research-talks
 About 30 years ago:

The Other Path

by Hernando de Soto
(and 20 years ago, my Ph.D. dissertation on informality and growth was
published)
An alternative to the “Shining Path” to the communist revolution
Fundamentals
 A definition of informality
“Informality” is a term used to describe the collection
of firms, workers, and activities that operate outside
the legal and regulatory frameworks or outside the
modern economy
Informality is rampant in the developing world
• In a typical developing country, the informal
sector,
 produces about 35 percent of GDP
 employs around 70 percent of the labor force
• … however, with considerable heterogeneity
across regions and countries
 Informal Labor
100%
90%
80%
% of labor force
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
 Informality is an essential issue…
It implies that a large number of people and economic
activities do not benefit from,
• appropriate technologies
• access to public services
• social protection
The positive side: flexibility and creativity
The negative side: inefficiency and risk
A History of Thought
 Informality Schools of Thought

Lack of • ILO
development • Worker’s rights

Bad • Hernando de Soto

governance • Doing business
 A new synthesis on the study of informality

Public Taxation vs.

What is the Finance Public services
tradeoff
that drives
informality? Labor Labor costs vs.
Markets Capital costs
An Empirical Approach
 Informality is a symptom of…
• Bad governance
Excessive regulations
Defficient provision of public services

• Lack of Development
 Low productivity
o lack of capital
o low levels of education
o other socio-demographic factors (youth, rural…)
Informality and regulations
Informality and public services
Informality and education
Informality and sociodemographics
 Informality determinants
Informality measures
Non-contributor to Self
Pension Scheme Employment
(% of labor force, (% of total employment,
Explanatory variables: average of 2000-2007) average of 1999-2007)
Average of 2000-2007 by country [1] [2]

Law and Order -3.5079* -1.6825*

(ICRG, index ranging 0-6: higher, better) -1.67 -1.97

Business Regulatory Freedom -6.1035** -2.6978**

(The Fraser Institute, index ranging 0-10: higher, -2.34 -2.37
less regulated)

Average Years of Secondary Schooling -5.4929** -1.9791**

(Barro and Lee 2001) -2.62 -2.06

Sociodemographic Factors 20.7618*** 6.1571***

(average of share of youth population, share of 5.57 4.85
rural population, and share of agriculture in GDP)

Constant 115.0565*** 55.5873***

10.78 13.54

No. of observations 74 62
Adjusted R-squared 0.84 0.80
Explaining differences in informal labor: Peru vs. Chile

Public Services
28% 27%

Regulatory
Freedom
Education and
45% Sociodemographics
Explaining differences in informal labor: Indonesia vs. S. Korea

14%
Public Services
13%
Regulatory
Freedom
73% Education and
Sociodemographics
 Lessons from the empirical approach
• Informality is not explained by a single source
 It is a complex phenomenon that arises from the combination of various
forces
• As with all other complex issues, informality is both a cause and a
symptom:
 Informality lowers GDP growth
 But it’s better than unemployment!
• We need more theory to understand informality relationships…
A Model
 Agents
• Workers:
 Provide labor
 Similar, basic skills
• Capitalists:
 Provide capital through savings
 May include both physical and human capital
• Government:
 Benevolent but myopic
 Determines a minimum wage
 Two coexisting economies
• Modern economy
 Technology that uses both capital and labor
 Organized in firms
• Rudimentary economy
 Technology that uses only labor
 Represented mostly by the self employed
 Informal and formal sectors
• Formal sector:
 Part of the modern economy
 High labor costs – government mandated
• Modern Informal sector:
 Part of the modern economy
 Low labor costs but high capital costs and lower total factor productivity
• Rudimentary Informal sector:
 Subsistence for some
 Reservation for others
 Solution
• Static:
 Total capital and total labor are fixed
 TFP is also given
 Capital and labor are allocated to different sectors of the economy
• Dynamic:
 Capital is accumulated through optimal endogenous savings
 Labor grows according to exogenous population growth and participation
rates
 TFP grows exogenously
 Comparative statics
Variable of Interest Mandated Total Factor Informal
Formal Wage Productivity capital cost
Modern informal
sector wage
Modern informal
sector size
Formal sector size

Capital rental rate

 Comparative statics
Variable of Interest Mandated Total Factor Informal
Formal Wage Productivity capital cost
Modern informal no effect
sector wage
+ -
Modern informal
sector size
+ - -
Formal sector size
- + +
Capital rental rate no effect
- +
 Dynamics

TFP W
& &
LF K
 Dynamics

Formal

TFP W
& & Informal
LF K

Rudimentary
 Dynamics

Formal

TFP W
Formal
& & Informal
LF K

Rudimentary Informal

Rudimentary
 Empirical application
• Objective:
 Calibrate the model
 Use it for projections
• Data:
 Own calculations,
o Labor data (based on ILO, WB)
o Capital (based on WB, PWT)
o TFP (based on WB, PWT, ILO)
 Proxies:
o Modern formal: contributors to pension
o Rudimentary informal: vulnerable self employed
 Scenarios
1. Reasonable
 Mandated wages grow as fast as labor productivity
2. Reformist
 Mandated wages grow less than labor productivity (by 1 pp)
• In all scenarios,
 The time horizon extends from 2010 to 2020 and 2030
 TFP in the next two decades is assumed to grow at the same rate as in the
previous decade
 A tool -- for informality projections
• Excel-based tool, containing,
 Underlying data
 Parameter assumptions
 Initial conditions
 Scenarios
• Flexible and modifiable
 Useful for other researchers and policy makers
• Large sample of countries: 76 developing, 20 developed
• Developed in collaboration with Claudia Meza-Cuadra
A few examples
Colombia -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
Ghana -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
 Peru -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
Morocco -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
 Kenya -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
 India -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
Indonesia -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
Vietnam -- Formal and Informal Labor Over Time
100%

80%
Rudimentary
% of labor force

60%
Informality
Modern
40%
Informality
Formality
20%

0%
2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030

Reasonable Reformist
 A Final Reflection:
Compassion or Admiration?
The informal sector: Prometheus Unbound!