ECON 3350/7350 Applied Econometrics For Macroeconomics and Finance

ECON 3350/7350 Applied Econometrics for
Macroeconomics and Finance

Lecture 6: Cointegrating Relations
Fu Ouyang
School of Economics
University of Queensland
April 1, 2019
Cointegration
Recommended readings
Author Title Chapter Call No

Enders Applied Economet- 6.1, 6.2 HB139 .E55 2015
ric Time Series, 4e
Verbeek A Guide to Modern 9.2, 9.3 HB139 .V465 2012
Econometrics
Spurious Regression
What are the implications of working with I(1) variables?
In general, linear combinations of I(1) variables yields another I(1)

variable; however, in some cases the linear combination can result in I(0).
Spurious regression: conclude there is a significant relationship between

I(1) variables when in reality there isn’t one.
Cointegration: I(1) variables are related such that there exists a linear
combination that yields a I(0) process.
Spurious Regression
Let xt = xt−1 + εx,t and yt = yt−1 + εy,t , where εx,t and εy,t are
independent white noise.
Since xt and yt are independent random walks, there is no relationship

between them.
However, regressing yt = β0 + β1 xt + εt typically yields large, significant

βb1 .
b1 −β1
β
The sampling distribution of under H0 : β1 = 0 is not Student-t; it is
se(βb1 )
more dispersed so that
!
βb
1
Pr > tα,T −k = Pr(reject H0 | H0 is true) > α.

se(βb1 )
So, a t-test will tend to reject H0 incorrectly (i.e. α is not the correct
significance level)..
Spurious Regression
√
In fact, as T −→ ∞, the quantity T (βb1 − β1 ) −→ ∞.
• t-statistic of β1 increases with sample size—more data exacerbates the
problems with t-tests.
• OLS is not consistent, and there is no well-defined sampling
distribution.
Significant t-tests occur because even pure random walks tend to resemble
trends; when two I(1) variables wander in the same direction for a while,
we might mistake this for cointegration.
But in yt = β0 + β1 xt + εt , the residual εt is I(1), so would expect low

Durbin-Watson statistics.
Practical signs of a spurious regression:

• Significant t-statistics; high R2 values; low Durbin-Watson statistics.
Cointegration
Consider the following example:
yt = ξt + νy,t ,
1
xt = ξt + νx,t ,
β
ξt = ξt−1 + ηt ,
where the errors νy,t , νx,t and ηt are given by
1
νy,t = −βε1,t , νx,t = − ε2,t , ηt = βε1,t + ε2,t ,
β
and ε1,t , ε2,t are both (uncorrelated) white noise processes.

Observe that
∆yt = ηt + νy,t − νy,t−1 ,

= ε2,t + βε1,t−1 ≡ uy,t ,
∆xt = ηt + νx,t − νx,t−1 ,
1
= ε1,t + ε2,t−1 ≡ ux,t .
β
When examined individually, yt = yt−1 + uy,t and xt = xt−1 + ux,t are

random walks.
But the linear combination
yt − βxt = νy,t − βνx,t = −βε1,t + ε2,t
is also I(0).
Cointegration and Common Stochastic Trends
In this example, yt and xt are cointegrated.

• While each is process is a RW, they in fact wander together.
• There exists a long-run stable relation ship between yt and xt , such
that they never wander too far away from each other.
The key component that ties together yt and xt is the common stochastic
trend ξt .
• Both yt and xt actually embody stationary movements around the
non-stationary ξt .
In economics, many theories suggest that observed economic data are

driven by common stochastic trends—variables evolve together over time
and there exist long-run equilibria.
Common Stochastic Trend Example
Expectation Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates suggests rates
are I(1), but spreads are I(0).
16
12
-4
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
GS3 GS5 SPREAD
• GS3: ADF statistic is -2.178 (p-value 0.4995); GS5: ADF statistic is -1.977 (p-value 0.6104)
• SPREAD: ADF statistic is -5.608 (p-value 0.0000)
Definition of Cointegration
Let wt = (w1,t , . . . , wn,t )0 be a n × 1 vector with variables wi,t integrated of

order d.
Definition.
The components of wt are cointegrated of order d, b, denoted CI(d, b), iff
1. all components of wt are I(d), and
2. there exists a n × 1 vector β 6= 0 such that
zt = β 0 wt ∼ I(d − b), b > 0.
The vector β is called the cointegrating vector.

Cointegration Rank
For any given n × 1 vector wt , there may exist 0 ≤ r ≤ n − 1 linearly

independent cointegrating vectors β 1 , . . . , β r . We say that wt has
cointegration rank r.
Suppose wi,t ∼ I(1) for i = 1, . . . , n and let B = (β 1 , . . . , β r ) be a n × r

matrix of cointegrating vectors. Then
zt = B0 wt
is a r × 1 vector with elements zj,t ∼ I(0).
If wt has cointegration rank r, then there are exactly n − r common

stochastic trends driving the variables in wt .
Real Business Cycles Example
King, R. G., C. I. Plosser, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson (1991). “Stochastic

trends and economic fluctuations.” The American Economic Review, 81,
819-840.
General class of RBC models can be characterized by
Yt = λt Ktθ Nt1−θ ,
ln λt = µλ + ln λt−1 + ξt ,
where Yt is output, Kt is capital stock, Nt is labor input, and ln λt is log of

total factor productivity, which is a RW with drift.
The resource constraint implies Yt = Ct + It , where Ct is consumption and

It is investment.
Real Business Cycles Example
ln λt /θ is a common stochastic trend with growth rate (µλ + ξt )/θ.
Slight extension of the Neoclassical Growth Model yields that the great ratios
Ct It
Yt and Yt are stationary stochastic processes.
Therefore, theory implies that ln Ct , ln It , and ln Yt are all I(1) but the
quantities ln Ct − ln Yt and ln It − ln Yt are I(0).
That is, there exist two cointegrating vectors such that

 
! ln C !
t
1 0 −1 ln C t − ln Yt
B0 wt =  ln It  = ∼ I(0).
 
0 1 −1 ln It − ln Yt
ln Yt
KPSW use this to compute impulse responses of economic variables to

productivity shocks, identified as innovations in the common stochastic
trend. Such IRFs are features of the business cycle.
Testing for Cointegration
When I(1) variables cointegrate, a linear combination will be I(0);
otherwise all linear combinations will be I(1).
Basic idea to test for cointegration: given a vector wt , estimate the

regression
wn,t = β0 + β1 w1,t + · · · + βn−1 wn−1,t + εt ,
and test the residual
εb = wn,t − βb0 − βb1 w1,t − · · · − βbn−1 wn−1,t
for a unit root.
Can use the Cointegrating ADF or Cointegrating Regression DW test for

this: rejecting H0 implies εbt ∼ I(0), and therefore, evidence of
cointegration.
Properties of OLS for Cointegrated Variables
If yt and xt are cointegrated, then OLS estimator βb0 , βb1 in
y t = β0 + β1 x t + ε t
will be superconsistent.
Normally, √
b − β) −→ N (0, V).
T (β
√
That is, β
b converges at rate T .
For cointegrated time-series,
b − β) −→ N (0, V).
T (β
That is, β
b converges at rate T . This implies that when cointegrating
relationships exist, OLS estimates reliably even in small samples; when
they do not exist, OLS leads to spurios relationships.
Income Consumption Example
Define:
• ct : (log) consumption;
• yt : (log) income;
• at : (log) wealth;
and arrange them into a 3 × 1 vector wt = (ct , yt , at )0 .
Extension of the Permanent Income Hypothesis states that for

β = (1, −1, β)0 , zt = β 0 wt = ct − yt − βat is stationary.
To test this, regress

ct − yt = β0 + β1 at + εt ,
and test for stationarity of εb = ct − yt − βb0 − βb1 at .
Use, e.g., Cointegrating ADF with (in this case) two variables–Table C of
Enders.
Cointegration Space
All examples so far assumed cointegrating vectors are either fully known
or partially known.
In the permanent income hypothesis example,
 
1
B = −1 .
 
β
In the RBC example, we can generalize slightly to obtain

 
1 0
B=0 1 .
 
β 1 β2
In all these cases, the cointegrating vectors are unique and we can
estimate unknown components such as β1 and β2 from data.
Cointegration Space
0
In general, if zt = B wt is stationary, then for any invertible K, B
e = BK is
0 0
another n × r matrix that yields e zt = Be wt = K zt stationary.
Multiplying B by K yields linear combinations of the vectors in B. The r

vectors formed by these linear combinations are also valid cointegrating
vectors.
Implication: unrestricted B cannot be estimated from data because only

the space spanned by (true) cointegrating vectors β1 , . . . , βr (termed
cointegration space) is identified.
For identification, restrictions on B are necessary:

• Impose 0 and 1 restrictions based on theoretical considerations (as in
examples so far), or
• Impose the restriction B0 B = Ir , i.e., identify the basis of the
cointegration space.

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Macroeconomics and Finance

Author Title Chapter Call No

What are the implications of working with I(1) variables?

In general, linear combinations of I(1) variables yields another I(1)

Spurious regression: conclude there is a significant relationship between

Since xt and yt are independent random walks, there is no relationship

However, regressing yt = β0 + β1 xt + εt typically yields large, significant

But in yt = β0 + β1 xt + εt , the residual εt is I(1), so would expect low

Practical signs of a spurious regression:

Consider the following example:

where the errors νy,t , νx,t and ηt are given by

and ε1,t , ε2,t are both (uncorrelated) white noise processes.

∆yt = ηt + νy,t − νy,t−1 ,

When examined individually, yt = yt−1 + uy,t and xt = xt−1 + ux,t are

But the linear combination

yt − βxt = νy,t − βνx,t = −βε1,t + ε2,t

In this example, yt and xt are cointegrated.

In economics, many theories suggest that observed economic data are

GS3 GS5 SPREAD

Let wt = (w1,t , . . . , wn,t )0 be a n × 1 vector with variables wi,t integrated of

zt = β 0 wt ∼ I(d − b), b > 0.

The vector β is called the cointegrating vector.

For any given n × 1 vector wt , there may exist 0 ≤ r ≤ n − 1 linearly

Suppose wi,t ∼ I(1) for i = 1, . . . , n and let B = (β 1 , . . . , β r ) be a n × r

is a r × 1 vector with elements zj,t ∼ I(0).

If wt has cointegration rank r, then there are exactly n − r common

King, R. G., C. I. Plosser, J. H. Stock, and M. W. Watson (1991). “Stochastic

General class of RBC models can be characterized by

where Yt is output, Kt is capital stock, Nt is labor input, and ln λt is log of

The resource constraint implies Yt = Ct + It , where Ct is consumption and

That is, there exist two cointegrating vectors such that

KPSW use this to compute impulse responses of economic variables to

Basic idea to test for cointegration: given a vector wt , estimate the

wn,t = β0 + β1 w1,t + · · · + βn−1 wn−1,t + εt ,

and test the residual

εb = wn,t − βb0 − βb1 w1,t − · · · − βbn−1 wn−1,t

for a unit root.

Can use the Cointegrating ADF or Cointegrating Regression DW test for

For cointegrated time-series,

Extension of the Permanent Income Hypothesis states that for

To test this, regress

In the RBC example, we can generalize slightly to obtain

Multiplying B by K yields linear combinations of the vectors in B. The r

Implication: unrestricted B cannot be estimated from data because only

For identification, restrictions on B are necessary:

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