Chapter 5 Variables and Hypotheses
Chapter 5 Variables and Hypotheses
Notice that no relationship is suggested in these questions. The researcher simply wants to identify
characteristics, behaviors, feelings, or thoughts. It is often necessary to obtain such information as a first step in
designing other research or making educational decisions of some sort.
The problem with purely descriptive research questions is that answers to them do not help us understand why
people feel or think or behave a certain way, why programs possess certain characteristics, why a particular
strategy is to be used at a certain time, and so forth. We may learn what happened, or where or when (and even
how) something happened, but not why it happened. As a result, our understanding of a situation, group, or
phenomenon is limited. For this reason, scientists highly value research questions that suggest relationships to
be investigated, because the answers to them help explain the nature of the world in which we live. We learn to
understand the world by learning to explain how parts of it are related. We begin to detect patterns or
connections between the parts.
Variables
WHAT IS A VARIABLE?
At this point, it is important to introduce the idea of variables, since a relationship is a statement about
variables. What is a variable? A variable is a concept—a noun that stands for variation within a class of objects,
such as chair, gender, eye color, achievement, motivation, or running speed. Even spunk, style, and lust for life
are variables. Notice that the individual members in the class of objects, however, must differ—or vary—to
qualify the class as a variable. If all members of a class are identical, we do not have a variable. Such
characteristics are called constants , since the individual members of the class are not allowed to vary, but rather
are held constant. In any study, some characteristics will be variables, while others will be constants. Suppose a
researcher is interested in studying the effects of reinforcement on student achievementrade level of the students
would be a constant.
Notice that it is easier to see what some of these concepts stand for than others. The concept of chair,
for example, stands for the many different objects that we sit on that possess legs, a seat, and a back.
Furthermore, different observers would probably agree as to how particular chairs differ. It is not so easy,
however, to see what a concept like motivation stands for, or to agree on what it means. The researchers must be
specific here—they must defi ne motivation as clearly as possible. They must do this so that it can be measured
or manipulated. We cannot meaningfully measure or manipulate a variable if we cannot defi ne it. As we
mentioned above, much educational research involves looking for a relationship among variables. But what
variables?
There are many variables “out there” in the world that can be investigated. Obviously, we can’t
investigate them all, so we must choose. Researchers choose certain variables to investigate because they
suspect that these variables are somehow related and believe that discovering the nature of this relationship, if
possible, can help us make more sense out of the world in which we live.
Sometimes researchers have a choice of whether to treat a variable as quantitative or categorical. It is not
uncommon, for example, to fi nd studies in which a variable such as anxiety is studied by comparing a group of
“high-anxiety” students to a group of “low-anxiety” students. This treats anxiety as though it were a categorical
variable. While there is nothing really wrong with doing this, there are three reasons why it is preferable in such
situations to treat the variable as quantitative.
1. Conceptually, we consider variables such as anxiety in people to be a matter of degree, not a matter of
either-or.
2. Collapsing the variable into two (or even several) categories eliminates the possibility of using more
detailed information about the variable, since differences among individuals within a category are
ignored.
3. The dividing line between groups (for example, between individuals of high, middle, and low anxiety)
is almost always arbitrary (that is, lacking in any defensible rationale).
INDEPENDENT VERSUS
DEPENDENT VARIABLES
A common and useful way to think about variables is to classify them as independent or dependent.
Independent variables are those that the researcher chooses to study in order to assess their possible effect(s)
on one or more other variables. An independent variable is presumed to affect (at least partly cause) or somehow
influence at least one other variable. The variable that the independent variable is presumed to affect is called a
dependent variable . In commonsense terms, the dependent variable “depends on” what the independent
variable does to it, how it affects it. For example, a researcher studying the relationship between childhood
success in mathematics and adult career choice is likely to refer to the former as the independent variable and
subsequent career choice as the dependent variable.
It is possible to investigate more than one independent (and also more than one dependent) variable in a study.
For simplicity’s sake, however, we present examples in which only one independent and one
dependent variable are involved. The relationship between independent and dependent
variables can be portrayed graphically as follows:
Affects
Independent Dependent
variable(s) variable(s)
(presumed or (presumed
possible cause) results)
At this point, let’s check your understanding. Suppose a researcher plans to investigate the following
question: “Will students who are taught by a team of three teachers learn more science than students taught by
one individual teacher?” What are the independent and dependent variables in this question? *
Notice that there are two conditions (sometimes called levels ) in the independent variable—“three
teachers” and “one teacher.” Also notice that the dependent variable is not “science learning” but “ amount of
science learning.” Can you see why?
At this point, things begin to get a bit complicated. Independent variables may be either manipulated or
selected. A m anipulated variable is one that the researcher creates. Such variables are typically found in
experimental studies (see Chapter 13). Suppose, for example, that a researcher decides to investigate the effect
of different amounts of reinforcement on reading achievement and systematically assigns students to three
different groups. One group is praised continuously every day during their reading session; the second group is
told simply to “keep up the good work”; the third group is told nothing at all. The researcher, in effect,
manipulates the conditions in this experiment, thereby creating the variable amount of reinforcement. Whenever
a researcher sets up experimental conditions, one or more variables are created. Such variables are called
manipulated variables, experimental variables , or treatment variables .
Sometimes researchers select an independent variable that already exists. In this case, the researcher
must locate and select examples of it, rather than creating it. In our earlier example of reading methods, the
researcher would have to locate and select existing examples of each reading method, rather than arranging for
them to happen. Selected independent variables are not limited to studies that compare different treatments; they
are found in both causal-comparative and correlational studies (see Chapters 15 and 16). They can be either
categorical or quantitative. The key idea here, however, is that the independent variable (either created or
selected) is thought to affect the dependent variable. Here are a few examples of some possible relationships
between a selected independent variable and a dependent variable:
Notice that none of the independent variables in the above pairs could be directly manipulated by the
researcher. Notice also that, in some instances, the independent/ dependent relationship might be reversed,
depending on which one the researcher thought might be the cause of the other. For example, he or she might
think that test performance causes anxiety, not the reverse.
Generally speaking, most studies in education that have one quantitative and one categorical variable
are studies comparing different methods or treatments. As we indicated above, the independent variable in such
studies (the different methods or treatments) represents a categorical variable. Often the other (dependent)
variable is quantitative and is referred to as an outcome variable . * The reason is rather clear-cut. The
investigator, after all, is interested in the effect(s) of the differences in method on one or more outcomes (student
achievement, their motivation, interest, and so on). Again, let’s check your understanding. Suppose a researcher
plans to investigate the following question: “Will students like history more if taught by the inquiry method than
if taught by the case-study method?” What is the outcome variable in this question?
MODERATOR VARIABLES
A moderator variable is a special type of independent variable. It is a secondary independent variable
that has been selected for study in order to determine if it affects or modifi es the basic relationship between the
primary independent variable and the dependent variable. Thus, if an experimenter thinks that the relationship
between variables X and Y might be altered in some way by a third variable Z, then Z could be included in the
study as a moderator variable.
Consider an example. Suppose a researcher is interested in comparing the effectiveness of a discussion-
oriented approach to a more visually oriented approach for teaching a unit in a U.S. History class. Suppose
further that the researcher suspects that the discussion approach may be superior for the girls in the class (who
appear to be more verbal and to learn better through conversing with others) and that the visual approach may be
more effective for boys (who seem to perk up every time a video is shown). When the students are tested
together at the end of the unit, the overall results of the two approaches may show no difference, but when the
results of the girls are separated from those of the boys, the two approaches may reveal different results for each
subgroup. If so, then the gender variable moderates the relationship between the instructional approach (the
independent variable) and effectiveness (the dependent variable). The infl uence of this moderator variable can
be seen in Figure 5.2.
Here are two examples of research questions that contain moderator variables.
Research Question 1: “Does anxiety affect test performance and, if so, does it depend on test-taking
experience?”
• Independent variable: anxiety level
• Moderator variable: test-taking experience
• Dependent variable: test performance
Research Question 2: “Do high school students taught primarily by the inquiry method perform better on tests
of critical thinking than high school students taught primarily by the demonstration method and, if so, does it
vary with grade level?”
• Independent variable: instructional method
• Moderator variable: grade level
• Dependent variable: performance on critical thinking tests
As you can see, the inclusion of a moderator variable (or even two or three) in a study can provide
considerably more information than just studying a single independent variable alone. We recommend their
inclusion whenever appropriate.
MEDIATOR VARIABLES
While a moderator variable can modify or infl uence the strength of a relationship between two other variables,
a mediator variable is one that attempts to explain the relationship between the two other variables. Let us
reexamine the relationship in Hypothesis 1 above between anxiety level (AL) and test performance (TP) on a
high-stakes test like the SAT exam. The moderator variable in this case is test-taking experience (TTE) because
the relationship between AL and TP is stronger for students with prior experience taking the SAT. A possible
mediator variable in this case could be socioeconomic status (SES) because it could explain why there is a
relationship between AL and TP.
EXTRANEOUS VARIABLES
A basic problem in research is that there are many possible independent variables that could have an
effect on the dependent variables. Once researchers have decided which variables to study, they must be
concerned about the infl uence or effect of other variables that exist. Such variables are usually called
extraneous variables. The task is to control these extraneous variables somehow to eliminate or minimize their
effect.
Extraneous variables are independent variables that have not been controlled. Look again at the
research question about team teaching on page 80. What are some other variables that could have an effect on
the learning of students in a classroom situation? There are many possible extraneous variables. The personality
of the teachers involved, the experience level of the students, the time of day the classes are taught, the nature of
the subject taught, the textbooks used, the type of learning activities the teachers employ, and the teaching
methods—all are possible extraneous variables that could affect learning in this study. Figure 5.3 illustrates the
importance of identifying extraneous variables.
The principal of a high school compares the final examination scores of two history classes taught by teachers who use different methods,
not realizing that they are also different in many other ways because of extraneous variables. The classes differ in:
Extraneous variables : • Size of class
• Gender of students
• Gender of teacher
• Age of teacher
• Time of day class meets
• Days of week class meets
• Ethnicity of teacher
• Length of class
One way to control extraneous variables is to hold them constant. For example, if a researcher includes
only boys as the subjects of a study, she is controlling the variable of gender. We would say that the gender of
the subjects does not vary; it is a constant in this study. Researchers must continually think about how they
might control the possible effect(s) of extraneous variables. We will discuss how to do this in some detail in
Chapter 9, but for now you need to make sure you understand the difference between independent and
dependent variables and to be aware of extraneous variables. Try your hand at the following question: “Will
female students who are taught history by a teacher of the same gender like the subject more than female
students taught by a teacher of a different gender?” What are the variables?
Hypotheses
WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?
A hypothesis is, simply put, a prediction of the possible outcomes of a study. For example, here is a
research question followed by its restatement in the form of a possible hypothesis:
Question: Will students who are taught history by a teacher of the same gender like the subject more than
students taught by a teacher of a different gender?
Hypothesis: Students taught history by a teacher of the same gender will like the subject more than students
taught history by a teacher of a different gender.
Here are two more examples of research questions followed by the restatement of each as a possible
hypothesis:
Question: Is rapport with clients of counselors using client-centered therapy different from that of counselors
using behavior-modifi cation therapy?
*The dependent variable is liking for history, the independent variable is the gender of the teacher. Possible extraneous variables
include the personality and ability of the teacher(s) involved; the personality and ability level of the students; the materials used, such as
textbooks; the style of teaching; ethnicity and/or age of the teacher and students; and others. The researcher would want to control as many
of these variables as possible.
Hypothesis: Counselors who use a client-centered therapy approach will have a greater rapport with their
clients than counselors who use a behaviormodifi cation approach.
Question: How do teachers feel about special classes for the educationally handicapped?
Hypothesis: Teachers in XYZ School District believe that students attending special classes for the
educationally handicapped will be stigmatized.
or
Teachers in XYZ School District believe that special classes for the educationally handicapped will help such
students improve their academic skills.
IMPORTANT HYPOTHESES
As we think about possible hypotheses suggested by a research question, we begin to see that some of them are
more important than others. What do we mean by important? Simply that some may lead to more useful
knowledge. Compare, for example, the following pairs of hypotheses. Which hypothesis in each pair would you
say is more important?
Pair 1
a. Second-graders like school less than they like watching television.
b. Second-graders like school less than fi rst-graders but more than third-graders.
Pair 2
a. Most students with academic disabilities prefer being in regular classes rather than in special classes.
b. Students with academic disabilities will have more negative attitudes about themselves if they are placed in
special classes than if they are placed
in regular classes.
Pair 3
a. Counselors who use client-centered therapy procedures get different reactions from counselees
than do counselors who use traditional therapy procedures.
b. Counselees who receive client-centered therapy express more satisfaction with the counseling process
than do counselees who receive traditional therapy.
In each of the three pairs, we think that the second hypothesis is more important than the fi rst, since in each
case (in our judgment) not only is the relationship to be investigated clearer and more specifi c but also
investigation of the hypothesis seems more likely to lead to a greater amount of knowledge. It also seems to us
that the information to be obtained will be of more use to people interested in the research question.
DIRECTIONAL VERSUS
NONDIRECTIONAL HYPOTHESES
Let us make a distinction between directional and nondirectional hypotheses. A directional hypothesis
indicates the specifi c direction (such as higher, lower, more, or less) that a researcher expects to emerge in a
relationship.
The particular direction expected is based on what the researcher has found in the literature, in theory,
or from personal experience. The second hypothesis in each of the three pairs above is a directional hypothesis.
Sometimes it is diffi cult to make specifi c predictions. If a researcher suspects that a relationship exists but has
no basis for predicting the direction of the relationship, she cannot make a directional hypothesis. A
nondirectional hypothesis does not make a specific prediction about what direction the outcome of a study will
take. In nondirectional form, the second hypotheses of the three pairs above would be stated as follows:
1. First-, second-, and third-graders will feel differently toward school.
2. There will be a difference between the scores on an attitude measure of students with academic disabilities
placed in special classes and such students placed in regular classes.
3. There will be a difference in expression of satisfaction with the counseling process between counselees
who receive client-centered therapy and counselees who receive traditional therapy.
Figure 5.5 illustrates the difference between a directional and a nondirectional hypothesis. If the person pictured
is approaching a street corner, three possibilities exist when he reaches the corner:
• He will continue to look straight ahead.
• He will look to his right.
• He will look to his left.
A nondirectional hypothesis would predict that he will look one way or the other. A directional
hypothesis would predict that he will look in a particular direction (for example, to his right). Since a directional
hypothesis is riskier (because it is less likely to occur), it is more convincing when confirmed.
Both directional and nondirectional hypotheses appear in the literature of research, and you should
learn to recognize each.