Wu2017 PDF

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 5

6WDWLVWLFDO$QDO\VLVRIWKH)1(7*ULG(\HGHWHFWHG

,QWHUDUHD2VFLOODWLRQVLQ(DVWHUQ,QWHUFRQQHFWLRQ (, 
/LQJ:XStudent Member, IEEE6KXWDQJ<RX,Student Member, IEEE;XHPHQJ=KDQJ,Student Member, IEEE<L
&XL,<RQJ/LXMember, IEEE,<LOX/LXFellow, IEEE

8QLYHUVLW\RI7HQQHVVHH
.QR[YLOOH71

2DN5LGJH1DWLRQDO/DERUDWRU\
2DN5LGJH71
OZX#YROVXWNHGXV\RX#YROVXWNHGX[]KDQ#YROVXWNHGX\FXL#XWNHGX\OLX#XWNHGXOLX#XWNHGX

Abstract—)1(7*ULG(\HKDVEHHQFRQWLQXRXVO\PRQLWRULQJWKH XQGHUVWDQGWKHFKDQJHVRIKLVWRULFDOLQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVDQG
SRZHUJULGVLQ1RUWK$PHULFDIRUPRUHWKDQWHQ\HDUV8VLQJWKH WDNHSUHHPSWLYHDFWLRQWRUHGXFHWKHULVNRIHTXLSPHQWGDPDJH
*36V\QFKURQL]HGSKDVRUPHDVXUHPHQWVDUHDOWLPHDSSOLFDWLRQ DQGV\VWHPVHSDUDWLRQ
KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG RQ WKH )1(7*ULG(\H SODWIRUP WR GHWHFW
LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV DQG SHUIRUP RVFLOODWLRQ PRGDO DQDO\VLV 7KH LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV WKUHDWHQ WKH VWDELOLW\ RI SRZHU
7KLV SDSHU FRQGXFWHGVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV RQWKH FDSWXUHGLQWHU systems. Timely detection can improve operators’ situational
DUHDRVFLOODWLRQVLQWKH(DVWHUQ,QWHUFRQQHFWLRQ (, IURPWR DZDUHQHVV >@>@ $ UHDOWLPH LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQ GHWHFWLRQ
 7KH UHVXOWV VKRZ VWURQJ FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ LQWHUDUHD WRROKDVEHHQGHYHORSHGDQGDSSOLHGWRWKHLQWHUFRQQHFWLRQVLQ
RVFLOODWLRQ DQG V\VWHP ORDG 7KH V\VWHP LV PRUH YXOQHUDEOH WR 1RUWK $PHULFD DW )1(7*ULG(\H D ORZFRVW ZLGHDUHD
LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV XQGHU ORZHU ORDG FRQGLWLRQV WKDQ KHDY\
ORDG FRQGLWLRQV 7ZR PDMRU LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQ PRGHV DUH
PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP LPSOHPHQWHG DW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ OHYHO
IRXQGLQ(,,WLVVXVSHFWHGWKDWVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVWRRNSODFHLQ SURYLGLQJ KLJK G\QDPLF DFFXUDF\ :LWK JURZLQJ DPRXQW RI
ZKLFKOHGWRWKHQRWDEOHDOWHUDWLRQVRILQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQV GLVWXUEDQFH VHQVRUV—)UHTXHQF\ 'LVWXUEDQFH 5HFRUGHUV
LQ WKH V\VWHP DIWHUZDUGV WKH QXPEHU RI REVHUYHG RVFLOODWLRQV )'5V  LQVWDOOHG LQ UHFHQW \HDUV )1(7*ULG(\H REVHUYHV
VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQFUHDVHG WKH SDWWHUQ RI WKH RVFLOODWLRQ PRGH PRUH GHWDLOHG GLVWXUEDQFH SURSDJDWLRQV 7KLV SDSHU DLPV DW
IUHTXHQF\GLVWULEXWLRQFKDQJHGDQGWKHSUHGRPLQDWLQJFDXVHRI VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RQ WKH KLVWRULFDO LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV LQ
WKH LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV LV VKLIWHG IURP OLQH WULS WR RWKHU (DVWHUQ,QWHUFRQQHFWLRQ (, IURPWRWRGLVFRYHUWKH
GLVWXUEDQFHV IHDWXUHVRI WKHVHRVFLOODWLRQV 6LQFHWKHUHDUH WKH PRVW)'5V
LQVWDOOHGWRSURYLGHFRPSUHKHQVLYHG\QDPLFV(,LVFKRVHQIRU
Index Terms—,QWHUDUHD 2VFLOODWLRQ 2VFLOODWLRQ 0RGH
2VFLOODWLRQ2FFXUUHQFH2VFLOODWLRQ7\SH
WKLV VWXG\ &RQVLGHULQJ WKH )'5V GHSOR\PHQW LQ WKH UHFHQW
WKUHH\HDUVLVUHODWLYHVWDEOHWKHKLVWRULFDOGDWDGXULQJWKLVWLPH
, ,1752'8&7,21 SHULRGLVFRQVLGHUHGWREHIDLUHQRXJKIRUFRPSDULVRQ
7KH LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV LQ SRZHU V\VWHPV KDYH GLUHFW )RUWKHUHVWRIWKHSDSHULWLVRUJDQL]HGDVIROORZVVHFWLRQ
LPSDFWV RQ VHFXUH RSHUDWLRQ DQG UHOLDELOLW\ 1RUPDOO\ LW ,, LQWURGXFHV WKH FDSWXUHG LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV DW
LQYROYHVWZRJURXSVRIJHQHUDWRUVVZLQJLQJDJDLQVWHDFKRWKHU )1(7*ULG(\HDQGWKHSULPDU\DWWULEXWHVVWXGLHGLQWKLVSDSHU
DWDORZIUHTXHQF\ZKLFKFDQEHREVHUYHGRYHUDODUJHSDUWRI VHFWLRQ ,,, WR VHFWLRQ 9 GLVSOD\ WKH VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VLV RQ
WKHSRZHUJULGVZLWKQRQOLQHDUG\QDPLFEHKDYLRUV7KHLQWHU GLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKHRVFLOODWLRQVWKHFRQFOXVLRQLVSUHVHQWHG
DUHDRVFLOODWLRQVFDQOHDGWRVHYHUHV\VWHPVHSDUDWLRQVLQWKH LQ6HFWLRQ9,
SUHVHQFH RI D OLJKWO\ GDPSLQJ PRGH $V UHQHZDEOHV VXFK DV
,, )1(7*5,'(<('(7(&7(',17(5$5($26,//$7,216
ZLQG DQG VRODU DUH JURZLQJ LQ SRZHU JULGV >@>@ VHYHUDO
UHVHDUFKKDVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWWKHSHQHWUDWLRQRIUHQHZDEOHV )1(7*ULG(\H KDV EHHQ PRQLWRULQJ WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV
EULQJVLQXQSUHGLFWDEOHV\VWHPGLVWXUEDQFHVDQGKDVLQHOLJLEOH LQ1RUWK$PHULFDIRUPRUHWKDQWHQ\HDUV,WWDNHVDGYDQWDJH
LPSDFWVRQWKHGDPSLQJRIH[LVWLQJHOHFWURPHFKDQLFDOPRGHV RI WKH ORZFRVW *36V\QFKURQL]HGDQGHDV\LQVWDOOHG )'5V
>@>@ )XUWKHU GHYHORSPHQW RI PL[HG JHQHUDWLRQ UHVRXUFHV WRPHDVXUHV\VWHPSKDVRUVLQFOXGLQJIUHTXHQF\YROWDJHDQJOH
LQYROYLQJ PRUH UHQHZDEOHV ZRXOG LQGXFH VHYHUHU LQWHUDUHD DQG YROWDJH PDJQLWXGH >@ 7KH )'5V FRQWLQXRXVO\ FDSWXUH
RVFLOODWLRQV WKDQ EHIRUH 7KHUHIRUH LW LV RI VLJQLILFDQFH WR V\VWHP G\QDPLFV DQG WUDQVPLW WKH GDWD WR WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ
FHQWHUIRUVWRUDJHDQGIXUWKHUDSSOLFDWLRQV>@>@6LQFHWKH
7KLV ZRUN ZDV VXSSRUWHG SULPDULO\ E\ WKH (QJLQHHULQJ 5HVHDUFK &HQWHU
LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV KDYH XQLTXH VLJQDWXUH RQ SKDVRUV
3URJUDPRIWKH1DWLRQDO6FLHQFH)RXQGDWLRQDQGWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI(QHUJ\
XQGHU 16) $ZDUG 1XPEHU ((& DQG WKH &85(17 ,QGXVWU\ )1(7*ULG(\HLVDEOHWRGHWHFWWKHPE\FKHFNLQJWKHSKDVRU
3DUWQHUVKLS3URJUDP WUDFHV DQG DQDO\]H WKH RVFLOODWLRQ PRGHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH

‹,(((
G\QDPLFV>@>@'HWDLOHGDSSURDFKXVHGWRLGHQWLI\LQWHU A. Hourly occurrence
DUHD RVFLOODWLRQ DQG PRGDO DQDO\VLV DW )1(7*ULG(\H LV 7KHKLVWRULFDORVFLOODWLRQVLQHDFK\HDUDUHJURXSHGLQWR
GHVFULEHG LQ >@ 2QFH DQ RVFLOODWLRQ LV GHWHFWHG LW KRXUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLURFFXUUHQFH87& WLPH)LJVKRZV
DXWRPDWLFDOO\DOHUWVVXEVFULEHUV ZLWKDUHSRUWRIEDVLF PRGDO WKH KRXUO\ RFFXUUHQFHV RI HDFK \HDU )URP WKH FKDUW LW LV
DQDO\VLV UHVXOWV LQFOXGLQJ GLIIHUHQW RVFLOODWLRQ PRGH QRWLFHGWKDWIURPWRWKHUHLVDQLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGLQ
RFFXUUHQFHWLPHHWF WKH DPRXQW RI RVFLOODWLRQV )URP  WR  WKH WRWDO
DPRXQW RI RVFLOODWLRQV LQFUHDVHV IURP  WR  WKHQ LW
7KH G\QDPLF VWDELOLW\ RI ODUJH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV LV VOLJKWO\LQFUHDVHVWRLQ,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHUHZDV
FKDOOHQJHG QRZ VLQFH WKH PL[HG JHQHUDWLRQV DQG JURZLQJ VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH RFFXUUHG LQ WKH V\VWHP LQ  SUREDEO\
GHPDQG FRXSOHG ZLWK LQVXIILFLHQF\ WUDQVPLVVLRQ V\VWHP ODUJHDPRXQWRIUHQHZDEOHSHQHWUDWLRQODUJHDUHDRIQHWZRUN
LQYHVWPHQW ,W OHDGV WR LQFUHDVLQJ XQSUHGLFWDELOLW\ LQ SRZHU UHFRQVWUXFWLRQRURWKHUFKDQJHVZKLFKPDGHWKHV\VWHPPRUH
WUDQVIHU 6HFXUH V\VWHP RSHUDWLRQ UHTXLUHV IDVW FRQWURO YXOQHUDEOHWRRVFLOODWLRQGLVWXUEDQFHV>@+RZHYHULWLVMXVW
UHVSRQGLQJWRWKHRVFLOODWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRV\VWHPRSHUDWLRQV DVXVSLFLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWKHRVFLOODWLRQREVHUYDWLRQVDQGVWLOO
DW SDUWLFXODU KRXUV DQG VHDVRQV  ,I WKH RVFLOODWLRQV KDYH QHHGVHYLGHQFHVXSSRUWIURPWKHSRZHUXWLOLWLHV
VHDVRQDO RU KRXUO\ SDWWHUQ LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR LQWHJUDWH WKH
IHDWXUHV ZLWK RSHUDWLRQ SODQQLQJ 7KHUHIRUH WKH KRXUO\ DQG
PRQWKO\RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHDUHDQDO\]HGLQWKLVSDSHU
7KH EDVLF DSSURDFK RI RVFLOODWLRQ PRGDO DQDO\VLV
GHFRPSRVHVWKHDQDORJVLJQDOLQWLPHGRPDLQLQWRIUHTXHQF\
GRPDLQ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH VSHFWUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ HDFK VLJQDO
FRQWDLQV WKH FRPSRQHQWV DOO RYHU WKH IUHTXHQF\ GRPDLQ
+RZHYHU WKH GRPLQDQW PRGH LV XVXDOO\ UHFRJQL]HG DV WKH
VLJQDO ZLWK WKH VWURQJHVW VSHFWUXP SRZHU 7KH IXQFWLRQ  
LQGLFDWHVWKHVXPRIFRVLQHFRPSRQHQWVILWWHGWRWKHVLJQDO
n
y k ¦R z
i 
k
i i     

ZKHUH WKH GLVFUHWH VLJQDO ‫ݕ‬ሺ݇ሻ HTXDOV WR WKH VXP RI WKH
SURGXFWV RI WKH UHVLGXHV RU FRPSOH[ DPSOLWXGHV R DQG WKH 
)LJXUH+RXUO\RFFXUUHQFHRIRVFLOODWLRQVLQ(,
SROHV z 7KHSDUDPHWHU n GHQRWHVWKHQXPEHURIVLQXVRLGVRU 
PRGHV WR EH HVWLPDWHG 7KH PRGH ZLWK PD[LPXP VSHFWUXP %HVLGHVWKHLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGLWFDQEHWROGIURP)LJWKDW
HQHUJ\ UHSUHVHQWHG E\ WKH PD[LPXP UHVLGXH YDOXH LV GXULQJ DP WR DP 87& WLPH WKHUH DUH PRUH RVFLOODWLRQV
FRQVLGHUHG DV WKH SUHGRPLQDWLQJ PRGH LQ WKH RVFLOODWLRQ GHWHFWHG XVLQJ WKH VDPH WRRO 7KH SKHQRPHQRQ LV VLPLODU LQ
EHFDXVHLWVGDPSLQJDQGIUHTXHQF\GHWHUPLQHWKHHYROXWLRQRI WKHVHWKUHH\HDUV7KHRVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHHQYHORSHRIHDFK
WKHRVFLOODWLRQ)URP  7KHGDPSLQJDQGIUHTXHQF\HVWLPDWHV \HDULQ)LJLVFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHGDLO\ORDGSURILOHVLQFHWKH
RIWKHVLJQDOFDQEHH[WUDFWHGIURPHDFK‫ݖ‬௜ DVVKRZQLQ   V\VWHPORDGLVFRPPRQO\NQRZQZLWKKRXUO\SDWWHUQ

 zi eOi 't      +RZHYHU WKH GDLO\ ORDG LQIRUPDWLRQ RI (, V\VWHP LV QRW
DYDLODEOHIURPSXEOLFUHVRXUFHV&RQVLGHULQJ3-0LVRQHRIWKH
Oi V i r jZi      ELJJHVWORDGFHQWHUVLQ(,WKHKRXUO\RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHLV
7KH GDPSLQJ UDWLR ߪ௜ DQG IUHTXHQF\ ‫ݓ‬௜ DUH WKH PDLQ FRPSDUHGZLWKWKH3-0GDLO\ORDG7KHKLVWRULFDO 3-0GDLO\
DWWULEXWHVRIRVFLOODWLRQPRGH,QWKLVSDSHUWKHGRPLQDWHPRGH ORDGLQIRUPDWLRQLVDYDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZSMPFRPPDUNHWV
IUHTXHQF\RIFDSWXUHGLQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVDW)1(7*ULG(\H DQGRSHUDWLRQVRSVDQDO\VLVKLVWRULFDOORDGGDWDDVS[
DUHDQDO\]HG,WLVH[SHFWHGWR ZRUNRQWKH GDPSLQJUDWLR LQ %HFDXVHV\VWHPORDGSURILOHKDVVHDVRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVOLNH
IXWXUHZRUN VXPPHUSHDNZLQWHUSHDN7KHORDGYDOXHLQHDFKKRXUGLIIHUV
HYHU\GD\7KHUHIRUHIRUHDFKKRXUWKHPHGLDQYDOXHRIWKH
8VXDOO\ LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV DUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ WKH PHWHUHG ORDG WKURXJK WKH \HDU LV XVHG WR FRPSDUH ZLWK WKH
RFFXUUHQFHVRIV\VWHPGLVWXUEDQFHV7RVRPHH[WHQWLWLVDEOH FXPXODWLYHRVFLOODWLRQVKDSSHQHGLQWKHVDPH\HDU7KHUHVXOWV
WR LGHQWLI\ VRPH RI WKH FDXVHV IURP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH DUHGLVSOD\HGLQ)LJWR)LJ7KHRVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHVLQ
SKDVRUPHDVXUHPHQWV$W)1(7*ULG(\HWKHFDSWXUHGLQWHU )LJDUHVHSDUDWHGLQWRWKUHHLQGLYLGXDOSORWVDVVKRZQLQ)LJ
DUHDRVFLOODWLRQVDUHFDWHJRUL]HGLQWRIRXUPDMRUW\SHVZKLFK  D )LJ D DQG)LJ D 7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ3-0PHGLDQ
DUHDQDO\]HGLQWKLVSDSHU ORDGSURILOHRIHDFK\HDUDUHGLVSOD\HGLQ)LJ E )LJ E 
,,, $1$/<6,62)26&,//$7,212&&855(1&( DQG)LJ E UHVSHFWLYHO\,QHDFKORDGSURILOHSORWWKHWLPH
LVFRQYHUWHGWR87&WLPH
7KLVVHFWLRQPDLQO\GLVSOD\VWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIWKHFDSWXUHG
LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV E\ )1(7*ULG(\H LQ (, IURP  WR


‹,(((
WKH V\VWHP EHFDPH VWHDG\ DQG WKH RVFLOODWLRQV RFFXUUHG
VLPLODUO\EHWZHHQDQG&RPSDULQJWKHRFFXUUHQFHV
RIDQGLWLVQRWLFHGWKDWGXULQJZLQWHUDQGVXPPHU
SHDNVWKHDPRXQWRIRVFLOODWLRQVLVOHVVWKDQWKDWLQVKRXOGHU
VHDVRQV DQG WKHUH DUH PRUH RVFLOODWLRQV LQ VXPPHU WKDQ LQ
ZLQWHU ,W FRXOG EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH V\VWHP ORDG DJDLQ
%HFDXVH GXULQJ SHDN PRQWKV WKH V\VWHP ORDG LV UHODWLYHO\
KHDY\7KHVDPHGLVWXUEDQFHOHDGVWROHVVVHYHUHRVFLOODWLRQV
  LQZLQWHUDQGVXPPHUSHDNVWKDQLQVKRXOGHUVHDVRQV%HVLGHV
D RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFH E 3-0KRXUO\ORDGSURILOH
)LJXUHKRXUO\(,RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHFXUYHDQG3-0ORDGSURILOH WKH W\SLFDOO\ V\VWHP GHPDQG LQ ZLQWHU LV KLJKHU WKDQ WKDW LQ
 VXPPHU>@VRWKHV\VWHPRSHUDWHVDWORZHUULVNRILQWHUDUHD
RVFLOODWLRQVLQZLQWHUWKDQLQVXPPHU)RUQRZWKHUHDVRQRI
WKH ELJ FKDQJH LQ 2FWREHU LV XQFOHDU IURP WKH RVFLOODWLRQ
REVHUYDWLRQV 7KH UHVXOW KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG WR 1(5& WR KHOS
ILQGWKHUHDVRQ


D RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFH E 3-0KRXUO\ORDGSURILOH
)LJXUHKRXUO\(,RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHFXUYHDQG3-0ORDGSURILOH

 
D RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFH E 3-0KRXUO\ORDGSURILOH )LJXUH0RQWKO\RFFXUUHQFHRIRVFLOODWLRQVLQ(,
)LJXUHKRXUO\(,RVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHFXUYHDQG3-0ORDGSURILOH 
,9 $1$/<6,62)26&,//$7,2102'()5(48(1&<
)URP)LJPRUHWKDQRVFLOODWLRQVDUHGHWHFWHGGXULQJ
DPWRDPZKLFK FRLQFLGHVZLWKWKHORDGYDOOH\IURPWKH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH IXQFWLRQ LQ   DQ DQDORJ VLJQDO LV
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ORDG SURILOH ZKLFK LV JHQHUDOO\ ORZHU WKDQ FRPSRVHG RI GLIIHUHQW PRGHV RYHU WKH IUHTXHQF\ VSHFWUXP
0:  6LPLODU SKHQRPHQRQ KDV DOVR EHHQ IRXQG LQ  HDFKPRGHSRLQWVWRDFRVLQHVLJQDODWRQHVSHFLILFIUHTXHQF\
DQG7KHVPDOOGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKH VSHFLILF KRXU RI 7KH GRPLQDWH PRGH ZKLFK FRQWDLQV WKH PRVW HQHUJ\ LV RI
PLQLPXP 3-0 ORDG DQG WKH PD[LPXP (, RVFLOODWLRQ JHQHUDOLQWHUHVWEHFDXVHLWGHFLGHVWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHVLJQDO
RFFXUUHQFHSRVVLEO\GXHVWRGLIIHUHQWV\VWHPV SUHGRPLQDWHO\,IWKHIUHTXHQF\RIWKHGRPLQDWHPRGHLVFORVH
WRWKHV\VWHP QDWXUDOIUHTXHQF\WKHGLVWXUEDQFH PD\ OHDGWR
7KH FRPSDULVRQ LQGLFDWHV LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQ LV KLJKO\ VHYHUHGDPDJHVRQERWKWKHJHQHUDWRUVDQGWKHV\VWHPVWDELOLW\
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKWKH V\VWHPORDG 0RUH LQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQV 1RUPDOO\ WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV LQ SRZHU
DUHGHWHFWHGGXULQJWKHWLPHSHULRGVZKHQWKHV\VWHPORDGLV V\VWHPVUDQJHVIURP+]WR+])1(7*ULG(\HGHWHFWV
UHODWLYHO\ORZHU7KHSKHQRPHQRQFDQDOVREHH[SODLQHGWKDWD LQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVLQUHDOWLPHDQGDQDO\]HVWKHGRPLQDWH
GLVWXUEDQFH FDQ SRWHQWLDOO\ FDXVH PRUH VHYHUH IUHTXHQF\ PRGHXVLQJ0DWUL[SHQFLOPHWKRG7KHGRPLQDWHIUHTXHQFLHV
GHYLDWLRQVXQGHUOLJKWORDGFRQGLWLRQV RI WKH FDSWXUHG LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV DUH DQDO\]HG LQ WKLV
VHFWLRQ
B. Monthly occurrence
/LNHZLVHWKH(,LQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVDUHJURXSHGLQWR
PRQWKVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLURFFXUUHQFHWLPH)URP)LJLWFDQ
EHVHHQWKDWWKHPRQWKO\RFFXUUHQFHLQDQGDUHTXLWH
VLPLODUDQGWKH\DUHREYLRXVO\GLIIHUHQWIURP,Q
PRUHRVFLOODWLRQVKDSSHQHGLQ)HEUXDU\DQGWKHRFFXUUHQFHV
LQRWKHUPRQWKVEHFRPHHYHQO\OHVVWKDQWLPHV,Q
DQG  WKH DPRXQW RI RVFLOODWLRQV LQ )HEUXDU\ DUH
VLJQLILFDQWO\ GHFUHDVHG 7KH V\VWHP LV PRUH YXOQHUDEOH LQ
2FWREHU$VVXPLQJWKHELJV\VWHPFKDQJHWRRNSODFHLQ
DV VXVSHFWHG IURP WKH KRXUO\ RFFXUUHQFH DQDO\VLV LW FRXOG 
H[SODLQWKHELJGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDQG$IWHUWKDW D 

‹,(((
 a+]DQGa+]DQGWKH\KDYHEHHQJUDGXDOO\
LQFUHDVLQJ

 
EF
 
)LJXUH'RPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\RILQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVLQ(, D 


,Q)LJWKHRVFLOODWLRQVRIHDFK\HDUDUHJURXSHGLQWR
KRXUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLURFFXUUHQFH87&WLPH7KHGRPLQDWH
IUHTXHQF\YDOXHRIHDFKRVFLOODWLRQLVPDUNHGDVDFURVV,WFDQ
EHWROGIURPWKHSORWVWKDWLQHDFKKRXUWKHPDMRULW\PRGHLV
OHVVWKDQ+]0RVWRIWKHPDUHRYHUODSSHGDURXQG+]
7KH DSSHDUDQFHLVOHVVOLNHO\ LQKLJK PRGHV $VVXPLQJ
VWDQGV IRU WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH RVFLOODWLRQV WKH  SHUFHQWLOH
IUHTXHQF\ YDOXH GHVFULEHV WKH XSSHU OLPLW RI WKH PDMRULW\
GRPLQDWHPRGH7KHUHIRUH)LJGLVSOD\VWKHEDUFKDUWRIWKH 
PDMRULW\PRGHV7KHKHLJKWRIHDFKEDUPHDQVWKDWRIWKH E F
RVFLOODWLRQV KDSSHQHG LQ WKH VSHFLILF KRXU DUH LQ PRGHV OHVV )LJXUH'RPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\GLVWULEXWLRQRI(,
WKDQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJIUHTXHQF\,WLVQRWLFHGWKDWLQGLIIHUHQW
KRXUVWKHXSSHUOLPLWRIWKHPDMRULW\RVFLOODWLRQPRGHVLQ 7$%/(, '20,1$7()5(4(81&<2),17(5$5($26&,//$7,216,1(,
YDULHVZLGHO\IURP+]WR+]+RZHYHULQDQG (,RVFLOODWLRQV 'RPLQDQW)UHTXHQF\ 'RPLQDQW)UHTXHQF\
 WKH HQYHORSH RI  SHUFHQWLOH EHFDPH VWHDG\ DQG \HDU  &HQWURLG +]  &HQWURLG +] 
GHFUHDVHGRIWKHRVFLOODWLRQVDUHLQWKHPRGHVORZHUWKDQ   
+]7KHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQDQGDQGVLPLODULW\   
  
EHWZHHQDQGVXSSRUWWKHVXVSLFLRQPDGHSUHYLRXVO\
WKDW ELJ V\VWHP FKDQJH RFFXUUHG LQ  ZKLFK PDGH WKH 
V\VWHPRVFLOODWLRQSHUIRUPVGLIIHUHQWO\ 9 $1$/<6,62)26&,//$7,217<3(6
7KHUH DUH DOO NLQGV RI UHDVRQV LQGXFLQJ LQWHUDUHD
RVFLOODWLRQV DFURVV WKH HQWLUH SRZHU V\VWHP 7KH\ FRXOG EH
VXGGHQ HYHQW OLNH WULS RI JHQHUDWRU RU WLH OLQH RU FRPPRQ
SRZHUV\VWHPRSHUDWLRQV 6RPHRIWKHFDXVHVDUH HDV\ WR EH
UHFRJQL]HGZKLOHVRPHDUHQRW%\FRPSDULQJWKHIUHTXHQF\
EHIRUH DQG DIWHU WKH GLVWXUEDQFH WKH RVFLOODWLRQV FDSWXUHG DW
)1(7*ULGDUHJURXSHGLQWRIRXUFDWHJRULHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
SRVVLEOHUHDVRQVJHQHUDWLRQWULSORDGVKHGGLQJOLQHWULSDQG
QRQREYLRXV UHDVRQV ZKLFK LQFOXGHV RWKHU UHDVRQV QRW
EHORQJLQJ WR SUHYLRXV WKUHH 7KH QRQREYLRXV UHDVRQV DUH
XVXDOO\KDUGWREHLQWHUSUHWHGIURPSKDVRUPHDVXUHPHQWV7KH
G\QDPLFVRIRVFLOODWLRQVFDXVHGE\WKHW\SHVDUHGHVFULEHGLQ
GHWDLOLQ>@+HUHWKLVSDSHUIRFXVHVRQWKHVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV
 RQWKHRVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHRIWKHIRXUW\SHV
)LJXUH+RXUO\SHUFHQWLOHGRPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\LQ(, )LJVKRZVWKHRVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFHVRIGLIIHUHQWW\SHV

KDSSHQHGLQ KRXUVLQHDFK\HDU )URP)LJ D LWVKRZV
7KHGRPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\LVIXUWKHUDQDO\]HGIURPDQRWKHU
WKDWLQGXULQJOLJKWORDGKRXUVIURPDPWRDPPRUH
SHUVSHFWLYHE\FRQVLGHULQJDOOWKHRVFLOODWLRQVKDSSHQHGLQWKH
RVFLOODWLRQVDUHFDXVHGE\OLQHWULSV&RPSDULQJ)LJ D ZLWK
VDPH\HDUDVDZKROH)LJSUHVHQWVWKHGRPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\
)LJ E DQG)LJ F LWLVQRWLFHGWKDWLQDQGWKH
GLVWULEXWLRQV RI WKH VDPH REMHFWV (DFK SORW VKRZV WKH
DPRXQW RI RVFLOODWLRQV FDXVHG E\ QRQREYLRXV UHDVRQV DUH
GLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHGRPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\LQRQH\HDU7KH[D[LV
VLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVHGHVSHFLDOO\GXULQJWKHOLJKWORDGKRXUV
LVWKHIUHTXHQF\DQG\D[LVLVWKHRVFLOODWLRQRFFXUUHQFH,WLV
7KH VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH VXSSRUWV WKH VXVSLFLRQ WKDW JUHDW
HDV\ WR ILQG WKDW WKHUH DUH WZR REYLRXV SHDNV LQ HDFK SORW
FKDQJHV WRRN SODFH LQ (, LQ  2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH
ZKLFKLQGLFDWHVWKDWPRVWO\WKHRVFLOODWLRQVLQWKLV\HDUDUHLQ
SRUWLRQRIOLQHWULSFDXVHGRVFLOODWLRQVLVGHFUHDVHGJUDGXDOO\
WKHVH PRGHV %\ XVLQJ FOXVWHULQJ WHFKQLTXH WKH FHQWURLGV RI
7KHV\VWHPPD\KDYHEHWWHUUHDFWLRQWRVWDELOL]HGLVWXUEDQFHV
WKH SHDNV DUH GLVFRYHUHG DQG OLVWHG LQ WKH 7DEOH  5HFHQW
FDXVHGE\OLQHWULSV6LQFHDODUJHSRUWLRQRIWKHRVFLOODWLRQVDUH
\HDUV WKH PRVW RIWHQ RVFLOODWLRQ PRGHV LQ (, DUH DURXQG
QRQREYLRXVW\SHZKLFKPHDQVWKHUHDVRQVDUHQRWFOHDUXVLQJ

‹,(((
FXUUHQW DOJRULWKPV )XUWKHU UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ SURPSWHG WR >@ 6 +DGOH\ 6 <RX0 6KDQNDU DQG< /LX (OHFWULF *ULG ([SDQVLRQ
GLVFRYHUWKHUHDVRQVRIWKHVHRVFLOODWLRQV 3ODQQLQJ ZLWK +LJK /HYHOV RI 9DULDEOH *HQHUDWLRQ ORNL/TM-
2015/515, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 
>@ M. H. Nguyen, T. K. Saha, and M. Eghbal, “Impact of high level of
UHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\SHQHWUDWLRQRQLQWHUarea oscillation,” in Universities
Power Engineering Conference (AUPEC), 2011 21st Australasian
SS–
>@ R. Elliott, R. Byrne, A. Ellis, and L. Grant, “Impact of increased
SKRWRYROWDLFJHQHUDWLRQRQLQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVLQWKH:HVWHUQ1RUWK
American power system,” in 2014 IEEE PES General Meeting |
Conference ExpositionSS–
>@ 6 <RX - *XR * .RX < /LX DQG < /LX 2VFLOODWLRQ PRGH
LGHQWLILFDWLRQ EDVHG RQ ZLGHDUHD DPELHQW PHDVXUHPHQWV XVLQJ
PXOWLYDULDWH HPSLULFDO PRGH GHFRPSRVLWLRQElectric Power Systems
 ResearchSS
D 
>@ 6 <RX - *XR : <DR 6 :DQJ < /LX DQG < /LX 5LQJGRZQ
RVFLOODWLRQ PRGH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ XVLQJ PXOWLYDULDWH HPSLULFDO PRGH
GHFRPSRVLWLRQ,QProc. 2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General
MeetingSS
>@ Y. Liu, S. You, and Y. Liu. “6PDUW 7UDQVPLVVLRQ  :LGH $UHD
0RQLWRULQJ 6\VWHP”. Communication, Control and Security for the
Smart Grid. ,(7
>@ Y. Ye and Y. Liu, “Monitoring power system disturbances based on
GLVWULEXWLRQlevel phasor measurements,” in Proc. of 2012 IEEE PES
Innovative Smart Grid Technologies (ISGT), SS–
 >@ </LX:<DR'=KRX/:X6<RX+/LX/=KDQ-=KDR+
E F
 Lu, W. Gao, and Y. Liu, “Recent deveORSPHQWV RI )1(7*ULG(\H $
)LJXUH2FFXUUHQFHVRI(,RVFLOODWLRQVLQGLIIHUHQWW\SHV situational awareness tool for smart grid,” CSEE Journal of Power and
Energy SystemsYROQRSS–6HS
 >@ -&KDL</LX-*XR/:X'=KRX:<DR</LX7.LQJ-5
9, &21&/86,21$1')8785(:25. Gracia, and M. Patel, “WideDUHD PHDVXUHPHQW GDWD DQDO\WLFV XVLQJ
FNET/GridEye: A review,” in 2016 Power Systems Computation
7KLVSDSHUSUHVHQWVSUHOLPLQDU\VWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLVRQWKH Conference (PSCC)SS–
LQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQVRFFXUUHGLQ(,V\VWHPIURPWR >@ 6<RX/=KX</LX06KDQNDU55REHUWVRQ7.LQJ, et al.'DWD
DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH REVHUYDWLRQV DW )1(7*ULG(\H 7KH PDMRU $UFKLWHFWXUHIRUWKH1H[W*HQHUDWLRQ3RZHU*ULG&RQFHSW)UDPHZRUN
DQDO\VLV LV FRQGXFWHG RQ WKH RVFLOODWLRQ RFFXUUHQFH WKH DQG 8VH &DVH LQ Information Science and Control Engineering
(ICISCE), 2015 2nd International Conference onSS
GRPLQDWHIUHTXHQF\DQGWKHRVFLOODWLRQW\SH$FFRUGLQJWRWKH >@ L. Wu, Y. Liu, D. Zhou, J. Guo, Y. Liu, “2EVHUYDWLRQ RI ,QHUWLDO
UHVXOWVODUJHV\VWHPFKDQJHSRVVLEOHQHWZRUNUHFRQVWUXFWLRQ )UHTXHQF\ 5HVSRQVH RI 0DLQ 3RZHU *ULGV :RUOGZLGH 8VLQJ
RUKLJKSHQHWUDWLRQRIUHQHZDEOHVWRRNSODFHLQ(,GXULQJ )1(7*ULG(\H” in 2016 IEEE PES General Meeting-XO\
ZKLFKOHGWRWKHVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVRQGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKH >@ J. N. Bank, O. A. Omitaomu, S. J. Fernandez, and Y. Liu, “Extraction
RVFLOODWLRQV EHWZHHQ  DQG  7KH DPRXQW RI and visualization of power system interarea oscillatory modes,” in IEEE
PES General MeetingSS–
RVFLOODWLRQV VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQFUHDVHG WKH SDWWHUQ RI WKH >@ 6<RX/=KX</LX+/LX</LX06KDQNDU, et al.$VXUYH\RQ
RVFLOODWLRQ PRGH IUHTXHQF\ GLVWULEXWLRQ FKDQJHG REYLRXVO\ QH[WJHQHUDWLRQSRZHUJULGGDWDDUFKLWHFWXUHLQ 2015 IEEE Power &
DQG WKH SUHGRPLQDWLQJ UHDVRQ RI LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQV LV Energy Society General MeetingSS
VKLIWHGIURPOLQHWULSHYHQWVWRRWKHUUHDVRQVH[FHSWJHQHUDWLRQ >@ J. K. Wang, R. M. Gardner, and Y. Liu, “Analysis of system oscillations
WULSORDGVKHGGLQJ6WURQJDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLQWHUDUHD XVLQJ ZLGHDUHD PHDVXUHPHQWV,” in 2006 IEEE Power Engineering
RVFLOODWLRQDQGWKHV\VWHPORDGLVGLVFRYHUHGWKDWWKHV\VWHP Society General MeetingSSSSS
>@ R. M. Gardner, W. Li, J. West, J. Dong, Y. Liu, and G. Zhang, “Power
UXQQLQJ ZLWK OLJKW ORDG LV PRUH YXOQHUDEOH WR LQWHUDUHD system frequency oscillation characteristics,” in 2008 IEEE Power and
RVFLOODWLRQ WKDQ XQGHU KLJK ORDG FRQGLWLRQV 7ZR PRVW RIWHQ Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical
GRPLQDWH PRGHV LQ (, DUH IRXQG DURXQG a+] DQG Energy in the 21st CenturySS–
a +] DQG WKH\ KDYH EHHQ JUDGXDOO\ LQFUHDVLQJ LQ >@ 7 ;LD et al., “Phase angleEDVHG SRZHU V\VWHP LQWHUDUHD RVFLOODWLRQ
UHFHQW\HDUV detection and modal analysis,” in European Transactions on Electrical
Power, YROQRSS–0D\
,W LV LQVSLUHG E\ WKH EHQHILWV RI WKLV VWXG\ WR FRQGXFW WKH >@ Y. Chen, J. Fuller, R. Diao, N. Zhou, Z. Huang, and F. Tuffner, “The
UHVHDUFK RQRWKHUODUJHLQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV%HVLGHVLWSURPSWV LQIOXHQFHRIWRSRORJ\FKDQJHVRQLQWHUDUHDRVFLOODWLRQPRGHVDQGPRGH
shapes,” in 2011 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
VRPHQHZTXHVWLRQVWKDWDUHSRWHQWLDOWRPDNHVRPHYDOXDEOH SS–
GLVFRYHULHV)RUH[DPSOHEHVLGHVWKHOLQHWULSJHQHUDWLRQWULS >@ C. Gavin, “Seasonal variations in electricity demand,” March 2014,
DQGORDGVKHGGLQJZKDWLVWKHPDMRUUHDVRQRIWKHRVFLOODWLRQV >2QOLQH@ $YDLODEOH
LQ(,V\VWHP" KWWSVZZZJRYXNJRYHUQPHQWXSORDGVV\VWHPXSORDGVDWWDFKPHQWBG
DWDILOH6HDVRQDOBYDULDWLRQVBLQBHOHFWULFLW\BGHPDQGSGI
5()(5(1&(6 >@ K. Zhang, Y. Ye, L. Chen, Y. Zhang, R. M. Gardner, and Y. Liu, “FNET
REVHUYDWLRQVRIORZIUHTXHQF\RVFLOODWLRQVLQWKHHDVWHUQLQWHUFRQQHFWLRQ
 and their correlation with system events,” in 2011 IEEE Power and
>@ 6 <RX 6 : +DGOH\ 0 6KDQNDU DQG < /LX &RRSWLPL]LQJ Energy Society General MeetingSS–
JHQHUDWLRQDQGWUDQVPLVVLRQH[SDQVLRQZLWKZLQGSRZHULQODUJHVFDOH
SRZHU JULGV—,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ LQ WKH 86 (DVWHUQ ,QWHUFRQQHFWLRQ
Electric Power Systems Research, YROSS

‹,(((

You might also like