Module Details

Principal Investigator Prof. Dr. Sanjukkta Bhaduri

Professor, Urban Planning, School of Planning and Architecture, New
Delhi
Paper Coordinator Prof. Dr. Sanjukkta Bhaduri
Content Writer Prof. Dr. Sanjukkta Bhaduri
Content Reviewer Prof. Dr. S. K. Saha
Subject Name Urban Disaster Risk Mitigation and Climate Resilient Develeopment
Module Title Urbanization and Risks
Objectives • Introduction to urbanization
• Global trends
• Challenges of urban areas
• Risks associated
• Climate related risks
• Damage and losses due to disasters
• Role of Urban planning
• Way forward
Unit structure

1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 3
2 Urbanisation – concept and definitions ................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Urbanisation - concept.................................................................................................................. 3
2.2 Defining urbanization.................................................................................................................... 3
3 Global level trends ................................................................................................................................ 4
3.1 Increasing urban population ......................................................................................................... 4
4 Global level implications of urbanisation ............................................................................................. 5
4.1 Generalized implications............................................................................................................... 5
5 Increasing Risks ..................................................................................................................................... 5
6 Role of Urban Planning in disaster risks................................................................................................ 6
7 Way Forward ......................................................................................................................................... 6
References ................................................................................................................................................ 6
Related links .............................................................................................................................................. 7
1 Introduction
Urbanisation is a global phenomenon involving an increase in the proportion of the population that is
urban against the non-urban population, the trends of which has positive as well as negative implications
on the entire world. The objective of this module includes explaining the concept of urbanisation, its
determinants, dimensions and the global level trends and implications.

2 Urbanisation – concept and definitions

2.1 Urbanisation - concept
Any definition of ‘urban’ needs to differentiate between it and the rural part. This is made possible by one
or more of the three elements used to distinguish between the urban and rural areas (Frey.W.H, et.al, 1998)
–
a) Ecological element (Eg. Population size and density)
b) Economic element (Eg. Non agricultural labour force)
c) Social element (Eg. Better access to infrastructure/ services, or negative aspects like
crowding/congestion, pollution, crime, etc)

2.2 Defining urbanization

Urbanisation is a process of concentration of non-agricultural occupations and land uses around a single
nucleus or multiple nuclei, which is primarily the result of rural to urban shift of population (Prakasa
Rao.V.L.S & Tewari.V.K., 1978). It is also defined as the process by which rural areas become urbanized
as a result of industrialization and/or economic development (Peng,et.al.,2010). Urbanisation level is best
measured by the urban population share, and urbanisation rate is the annual growth rate of this share (UN
Population Division, 2014). The global phenomenon of urbanisation can be explained by two types of
interrelated transitions, overlapping yet distinct – the urban transition and the demographic transition. Urban
transition involves a shift from a predominantly agricultural population living in relatively small, dispersed,
rural settlements towards a predominantly urban-based population engaged mostly in industrial and service
activities (Montgomery.M.R.et.al, 2003). Demographic transition suggests that when socio-economic
development leads to falling mortality rates in a low income settlement, the population will grow until
eventually fertility decreases to the point where population stabilizes and income levels are higher
(Rowland .D.T., 2003).

Before 1850, no society could be described as being fundamentally urban in nature (Davis, 1969). However,
by 2008, half of the world’s population resided in urban areas. With the steadily increasing rate of
urbanisation (see figure 1), the global urban population in 2015 has reached 53.85% according to the United
Nations Population Divisions (World Bank Open Data, accessed 2017).
Figure 1 - Urban Population (% of total)

3 Global level trends

3.1 Increasing urban population
According to the UN Population Division, 2014 statistics, the urban population exceeded the rural in 2007
and world population has remained predominantly urban thereafter. Population growth and urbanization
are projected to add 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban population by 2050, making the urbanisation
rate 66%. 90% of the expected increase in world’s urban population will take place in the urban areas of
Asia and Africa. The projected urban growth is mostly concentrated in the medium sized and small cities
of the developing world and just three countries -India, China and Nigeria, together is expected to account
for 37 per cent of the projected growth of the world’s urban population between 2014 and 2050. (UN
Population Division, 2014).
4 Global level implications of urbanisation
Aspect wise global implications of urbanization at global level are discussed in this section. Both positive
and negative implications of urbanization at global level are studied in terms of physical, social, economic,
environmental and governance aspects.

4.1 Generalized implications

Aspect wise implications of urbanisation at the global level
Physical Social Economic Environmental Governance
Planned urban Better quality of Better Better technology Better
spaces and life employment for alternate energy governance
built opportunities mechanism-
environment Better administrative
Better services Cities have environmental structure, laws,
and access to economic awareness policies and
infrastructure generating programmes for
+ve activities and Better expertise for development
contribute to mitigation measures
GDP of country

Better wages

Helps eradicate
rural poverty
Challenges in Exclusion and Unemployment Pollution More pressure
providing rising inequality among youth on improvement
urban services Consumption of of existing
towards the Rising mental Low wage resources and governance
city periphery health issues and employment in energy mechanisms
as the city crimes/ fear of informal sector
sprawls crime Climate change

Overcrowding Changing sex Increase in carbon

-ve
& congestion ratios emissions and
costs Increased number pollution
of people living in
slums
Lack of coping
Rising insecurity/ mechanisms for
vulnerability to dealing with hazards
urban risk

5 Increasing Risks

With increasing urbanization, urban development is also increasing. More buildings are being constructed
each year. Approximately 1 million dwelling units are expected to be built by 2050. Cities expand both
horizontally and vertically. Cities have various opportunities which attract people and thus they migrate
to urban centers. However along with the opportunity that the cities offer, there are also many chronic
pressures which the city faces, like the issues related to the traffic, increasing pollution, waste disposal,
lack of affordable housing, increasing urban poverty and many such issues. Cities face growing risks, also
with climate change with disasters would become more common.
The occurrence of natural disasters is observed to be increasing in the past decade. Also the impact of
these disasters, i.e the various types of losses are increasing. People are affected during any disaster, in
the past decade 226 million people were affected by disasters. There are deaths, people get injured there
are losses of assets and there is economic loss. In the last decade there had been 6 times increase in the
economic losses causes by disasters.
Climate change has a multiplier effect it has led to increased disaster risks, from extreme weather event.
Extreme weather conditions, specifically heat waves have also affected the cities. With increasing
temperatures, disasters are also increasing. Such as more and frequent floods, storms etc in the cities.

6 Role of Urban Planning in disaster risks

We all are aware that urban planning can guide the development, can lead to better risk mitigation strategies
and can be better prepared. But the way the cities are planned do not consider the implication of the
development. Many a times development induced disasters have taken place. Finally the impacts of the
disasters have been very severe. The development is done of unsuitable areas without considering the
probable risks.

7 Way Forward

The way forward is to identify the risks, present and future risks as result of development. Also the exposure
of the climate change, the impacts of the disasters and loses that would affect the area if the risk is not
addressed. Therefore all the sectors, ie the social or people related, environmental aspects, infrastructure of
the city, economic aspects all need to be robust, so as to withstand the impacts of climate change and
disasters. Strategies and guidelines for the same should be made at all levels, national, community and
individual level.

References
Census 2011. (2014). Rural-urban distribution of popultaion in India. New Delhi: Ministry of Home Affairs,
Government of India.
Gerben, J. (2007). Urbanization and urban crime. Geographical and Environmental Research, 453-502.
Glaeser, E., & Sacerdote, B. (1999). Why Is There More Crime in Cities? Journal of political economy,
225-258.
Grant, U. (2012). Urbanization and the Employment Opportunities of youth in developing countries .
UNESCO.
International Institution of Population Studies. (2016). National Family Health Survey 4, 2015-16.
Mumbai: Ministry of Health and Family welfare.
Malik, A. (2016). Urbanization and Crime: A Relational Analysis. IOSR Journal Of Humanities And
Social Science (IOSR-JHSS) , 68-74.
National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). (2010). Crime in India. New Delhi: Ministry of Home affairs,
Government of India.
National Sample Survey Office . (2011). Employment and Unemployment Survey : NSS 66th round: July
2009 - June 2010. Kolkata: National Sample Survey Office .
S.C, B. (1993). Peasant labour and colonial capital: Rural Bengal since 1770. In C. University, New
Cambridge History of India Vol III.2 (p. 26). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Shelly, L. (1981). Crime and Modernization: The Impact of Industrialization and Modernization on
Crime. Illinois: Southern Illinois University Press.
Suprita, B. (2016). Planned development in peri-urban areas of Kolkata. New Delhi: School of Planning
and Architecture (SPA) Delhi.
World Economic Forum. (2015). Invclusive growth and development report. online.

Related links
Liveable cities https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUEi5K6r2xs
GFDRR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFEJJFsDpvI
GFDRR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrjIL---08Y
World Bank https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rop3ogZ_X4A
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
http://www.unesco.org/education/tlsf/mods/theme_c/popups/mod13t01s009.html
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/AG.LND.TOTL.UR.K2
https://www.orfonline.org/research/measuring-urbanisation-india/
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-7088-1_21
http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/urbanisation/conurbations-development-characteristics-and-
problems-associated-with-conurbations/42420
http://www.isocarp.net/data/case_studies/1203.pdf
http://indianresearchjournals.com/pdf/IJSSIR/2012/September/15.pdf
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup1999/wup99ch5.pdf
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74757/1/MPRA_paper_74757.PDF
http://wgbis.ces.iisc.ernet.in/energy/urban/chapter1.htm
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9bd6/b2d2d78458680a48ce7f44d9f78524cd2bbb.pdf
http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/10597IIED.pdf
http://www.frey-demographer.org/reports/R-1998-11_DefiningCityLevelsUrbanization.pdf
http://www.iasscore.in/samplenotes/Urban-Indian%20Society-1.pdf