METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

Published online 15 March 2012 in Wiley Online Library
(wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/met.1304

Overlay mapping trend analysis technique and its application in Euphrates

Basin, Turkey

Kasim Yeniguna * and Ruken Ecerb

aDepartment of Civil Engineering, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey
b Department of Civil Engineering, Institute of Natural and Applied Sciences, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey

ABSTRACT: New investigation techniques for detecting hydro-meteorological data trends are required due to significant
changes in precipitation and streamflow affecting the planning and operation of water resources. In this study, the trends
analysis is carried out for the observation of climatic and hydrologic parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation
and streamflow in the Euphrates Basin located in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (referred to as GAP from the Turkish
acronym for Güneydoǧu Anadolu Projesi) region, which is the most important integrated water resources project in Turkey.
The relationships between different meteorological and hydrological parameters in the basin are evaluated using the overlay
mapping technique, popular in various engineering disciplines. The significant trends are indicated on the thematic maps
and the visible changes are observed in different parts of the basin. Decreasing trends are detected in minimum streamflow,
while the increasing trends in the annual mean and maximum temperature and in the annual mean and maximum humidity
parameters are observed for many stations. The study concludes that the overlay mapping technique can be used effectively
to observe the climatic changes and trends in hydrometeorological variables. The results are expected to help water resources
managers and policy makers in decision-making for better planning in water resources planning and management.

KEY WORDS climate change; trend analysis; water resources; overlay mapping technique; Geographic Information System
(GIS); Euphrates Basin
Received 27 August 2011; Revised 22 December 2011; Accepted 31 January 2012

1. Introduction the water demand not only temporally and spatially but also
qualitatively and quantitatively. Flood values are also required
It is well known that there are significant changes in precipita-
in operation, design and management in controlling structures
tion and streamflow, which may affect water resource planning
such as spillways (Bayazıt et al., 2002).
and operation. Recent climate change studies have shown sig-
Observational and historical streamflow data are the most
nificant impacts on hydrological cycle components such as
streamflow, precipitation, evapotranspiration and temperature important information sources in planning and designing water
(Arnell, 1999; Lettenmaier et al., 1999; Payne et al., 2004). The resources projects. These data show time dependent character-
increasing impact of climate change on flood occurrences, land- istics and are affected by many factors such as anthropogenic
slides, droughts, reduction in agricultural products, pollution, activities and their consequent climate change impacts. One of
hydro-electric energy shortage and water scarcity reinforce the the main steps in water resources works is to identify possi-
need to determine the relationship between climatic changes and ble trends in observed streamflow data with their temporal and
hydrological system performances. The adjustment to climate spatial occurrences (Yenigun et al., 2008).
change is possible through climatic parameters on which there Climatic change and its effects on water resources are inves-
are effects by human activities and, therefore, future climatic tigated extensively by various researchers. For example, Burn
change predictions play a significant role in any water resources and Elnur (2002) described the development and application
design. Climatic change impacts could be explained by means of a procedure that identifies the trends in hydrological vari-
of hydrometeorological data, decreases in glacier extent, sea ables. Their study is focused on the quantification of trends in
level rise, water temperature increments in lakes, and aerosol hydrometeorological variables and the investigation of the rela-
concentrations. tionship between trends in hydrological variables in Canada.
Recent research in various parts of the world has shown Whitfield and Cannon (2000) compared the hydrometeorologi-
major changes in rainfall and river flows. However, there is cal data for Canada from two different decades and found the
insufficient information today about how climatic change would recent decade to be generally warmer with the occurrence of
affect the rainfall in any region. The annual variability of the both increases and decreases in precipitation and streamflow.
relationship between rainfall and runoff in different seasons Birsan et al. (2005) analysed the mean daily streamflow records
shows a great difference compared to the previous years. As a from 48 watersheds in Switzerland with an undisturbed runoff
result, water management has a great significance in meeting regime for the trends using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric
test for three study periods. Their results pointed out that the
∗ Correspondence to: K. Yenigun, Faculty of Engineering, Department mountainous basins are the most vulnerable environments from
of Civil Engineering, Harran University, Osmanbey Campus, Sanliurfa, the climate change point of view, because their watershed prop-
Turkey. E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] erties promote fast runoff with their fundamental vulnerability

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

428 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

to temperature changes, which affect rainfall, snowfall, and polluted water situations. Nawaz and Adeloye (2006) carried
snow and ice melt. Christensen et al. (2004) assessed the poten- out the Monte Carlo Simulations technique to characterize
tial effects of climate change on the hydrology and water the sampling uncertainties in assessed water resources impacts
resources of the Colorado River basin by comparing simulated in Yorkshire, England. Kim et al. (2007) investigated and
hydrological and water resources scenarios. They used climate evaluated the climate change impact on the runoff and water
simulations of the U.S. Department of Energy/National Cen- resources by considering double carbon dioxide increase of
ter for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM) Yongdam basin, Korea.
to obtain scenarios driven by observed historical (1950–1999) Yılmaz (1999) studied the climatic trend detection and its
climate. Vicuna and Dracup (2007) reviewed the climate change effects in the East Black Sea Basin in Turkey and found that the
impacts on hydrology and water resources in California by average temperature of the basin tends to decrease as quantities
three major fields in climate change: (1) studies of histori- of the rainfall decrease along the coastal region of the basin and
cal trends of streamflow and snowpack in the geophysical it tends to increase in higher parts of the basin. Kosif (1999)
record; (2) predicted potential future effects of climate change analysed six different climate elements (mean temperature, total
on streamflow, and, (3) predicted changes in natural runoff in precipitation, average flow, total evaporation, average duration
order to determine their economic, ecological or institutional of sunshine and clouds). Significant decreases in the mean
impacts. Miller et al. (2003) investigated the potential impacts temperatures, total evaporation and mean sunshine duration and
of climate change in California by using two general circula- increases in total rainfall and in mean flows, are observed with
tion models. According to them, it appears that all snowmelt regional changes in cloudiness data of the basin.
from the runoff basins and snow accumulation late in winter The ‘Overlay Mapping Technique’ (OMT) is used in wide
decreases by 50% toward the end of this century. Wit et al. application areas (Bailey, 1988; Sumathi et al., 2008). This
(2007) analysed the observed precipitation, temperature and approach includes various features including geology, topog-
discharge records from the Meuse basin (North Europe) for the raphy and soil, climatic and other related conditions of the
period 1911–2003. They also simulated the impact of climate region and makes joint comparison through map transparencies
change on low flows. possible (Yesilnacar and Cetin, 2008).
Some other examples related to climatic change impacts on To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no study has yet
water resources are available. Gan (1998) applied Kendall’s been reported on the determination of climatic change effects
test to temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and natural on water resources using OMT. This provides an impetus to
streamflow data in Canada. Langan et al. (2001) studied the investigate the potential of the OMT for better understanding
variation in river water temperatures in an upland stream over the process. The main aim of this study is to develop a suitable
a 30 year period for Girnock in Scotland. Hiscock et al. (2001) OMT model for climate change impacts on water resources with
studied the flow records of the Rivers Bure, Nar and Wensum in the applications in the study area, the Euphrates basin in Turkey.
eastern England with the aim of identifying long-term changes The usefulness of the method lies in its ability to provide a
in flow behaviour relating to variations in rainfall amount, superposition process between the trend maps of climatic and
land use, land drainage intensity and water resources use. hydrological parameters.
Morrison et al. (2002) attempted to determine the trends in
the historic flows and water temperatures of the Fraser River
system in Canada considering both the annual flow profiles 2. Materials and methods
and the summer temperatures provided that these trends are 2.1. Study area
likely to continue under the conditions predicted by various
The study area is the Euphrates Basin, located in the South-
global circulation models (GCMs). Statistical relationships were
eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. It is the largest basin in
established between three indices of atmospheric circulation,
the country and has the highest mean annual streamflow in
daily catchment precipitation and potential evapotranspiration
Turkey. It is part of the Southeastern Anatolia Project, which
in order to downscale from the GCM to the Upper Wye
is a multi-sector and integrated regional development iniative
experimental catchment in mid-Wales, UK by Pilling and Jones
in sustainable development. The Basin’s mean annual aver-
(2002). Legesse et al. (2003) studied hydrological modelling at
age discharge downstream (at the Syrian border) is 950 m3 s−1
a catchment scale to investigate the impact of climatic and
(Yenigun et al., 2008). This region of the Euphrates basin has a
land use changes on water resources in Southern Ethiopia
continental sub-tropical climate, with extremes of heat in sum-
where the data are scarce, using a distributed precipitation-
mer and cold in winter, as well as high diurnal variations. The
runoff modelling system. Fu et al. (2004) used Kendall’s test
total area of the Euphrates Basin in Turkey is 120 917 km2
to analyse the hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River over
(the overall area of the Euphrates basin is 765 831 km2 ) and its
the last half century in China. The potential effects of climate
average elevation is about 1000 m. The general characteristics
change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia of the Euphrates Basin (as an average of all stations that are
River Basin were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. located on the main river bed) are given in Table 1 (EİEİ, 2003).
Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric The analysis does not cover the whole Euphrates River Basin
Research Parallel Climate Model by Payne et al. (2004). Ye and due to the lack of hydrometeorological data at downstream of
Glantz (2005) reviewed the changes in the short-term climate Turkey. The study area lies from 36° 46 58 to 43° 55 50 E and
information for water management in China after the 1998 36° 37 40 to 40° 27 50 N. Details of the Euphrates Basin are
Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin. They found that the shown in Figure 1 with the locations of the selected hydromet-
assessments of the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin ric and meteorological stations (EİEİ, 2003; DSİ, 2009).
helped the central government and water resources agencies to
recognize the weaknesses of the existing flood control system,
2.2. Data
the mismanagement in the ecological systems, and the need for
developing a national water resource management plan to deal The streamflow gauging stations are operated by the Gen-
with the problems of too much water, too little water, and very eral Directorate of Electrical Power Resources Survey and

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

 Overlay mapping trend analysis technique 429

Table 1. General characteristics of Euphrates Basin. regulated by large storage reservoirs. Not affected by urban-
ization they have relatively natural flows. Therefore, in the
Characteristic Value analysis, it is considered that there are no potential anthro-
pogenic effects on the catchment. The details of the selected
Mean annual streamflow (m3 s−1 ) 995.08 streamflow and meteorological stations are given in Tables 2
Volume of annual streamflow (m3 ) 31.38 × 109
and 3, respectively (DMİ, 2009; DSİ, 2009). Since the results of
Annual runoff (mm) 259.52
the trend tests depend strongly on the chosen period, the same
Mean annual efficiency (l s−1 km2 ) 8.23
Ratio of discharge in the Euphrates Basin 16.75 period is used for every parameter in the analysis. Detailed
to total discharge in Turkey (%) raster and vector maps are obtained from General Command of
Mapping (Turkish initials ‘HGK’). These maps are developed
by the authors using Arcmap.

Development Administration (Turkish initials ‘EİEİ’) and the 2.3. Trend detection tests
General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (Turkish initials
‘DSİ’). The meteorological stations are operated by the Turk- In statistical terms, the trend analysis is used to understand
ish State Meteorological Service (Turkish initials ‘DMİ’). In whether a series of observations has generally increasing or
this study, 22 streamflow stations and 39 meteorological sta- decreasing behaviour, or the probability distribution function
tions are employed. The selection of these stations is based (pdf) changes with time or space. Several tests are available
on the record length, reliability and continuity of the data. The for the detection and/or quantification of trends such as non-
long term recorded daily meteorological data between 1960 and parametric, mixed and parametric (Helsel and Hirsch, 1992).
2000 are used in the analysis. The measurement devices and Non-parametric tests are widely used in trend analysis of
measurement techniques are reliable, so the probable errors in climatic and hydrological data, which are robust with respect
the measurements are not taken into account in the analysis. to missing and tied values, seasonality, non-normality, non-
The analysis is based on the data given by DSI and DMI mea- linearity and serial dependency. In this study, non-parametric
surements. The rivers with streamflow gauging stations are not Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests are used for trend

(a)

(b) (c)

(d) (e)

Figure 1. Study area (a) and some details of the basin: (b) important irrigation areas, (c) the cities, (d) the rivers, (e) the selected hydrometric
and meteorological stations.

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430 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

Table 2. The details of selected streamflow gauging stations.

Station identification Part of basin Name of station Longitude (° ’ ”E) Latitude (° ’ ”N) Altitude (m)
number (SID)

2102 Middle Murat Nehri-Palu 39 55 52 38 41 18 852

2115 Lower Göksu Nehri-Malpınar 38 09 32 37 29 22 390
2119 Upper Fırat Nehri-Kemah Boǧazı 39 23 37 39 41 02 1123
2122 Middle Murat Nehri-Tutak 42 46 49 39 32 19 1552
2123 Lower Çaǧçaǧ Suyu-Çınarköy 41 18 14 37 11 38 560
2124 Lower Tohma Suyu-Yazıköy 37 26 35 38 40 23 995
2131 Lower Beyderesi-Kılayık 38 12 38 38 19 47 892
2132 Lower Culpsuyu-İncirli 39 02 02 37 09 37 470
2135 Lower Bulam Çayı-Fatopaşa 38 14 13 37 59 38 1252
2141 Upper Persisuyu-Korudibi 40 06 28 39 09 13 1035
2145 Lower Tohma Suyu-Hisarcık 37 41 08 38 28 34 933
2149 Upper Munzur Suyu-Miskidaǧ 39 32 33 39 06 37 900
2151 Upper Fırat Nehri-Demirkapı 40 10 05 39 34 45 1355
2154 Upper Karasu-Aşaǧı Kaǧdariç 40 45 35 39 56 20 1675
2156 Upper Fırat Nehri-Baǧıştaş 38 27 04 39 26 05 865
2157 Middle Karasu-Karaköprü 41 29 43 38 47 02 1250
2158 Middle Bingöl Çayı-A.Paşa Köp. 41 29 14 39 06 30 1310
2164 Middle Göynük Çayı-Çayaǧzı 40 33 17 38 48 31 990
2165 Lower Zerkan Suyu-Hocaköy 40 30 30 37 08 32 445
2166 Upper Peri Suyu-Loǧmar 39 48 52 38 51 30 845
2167 Upper Çaltı Suyu-Dazlak 38 15 33 39 20 52 890
2168 Upper Dumlu Suyu-Yeşildere 41 24 36 40 08 17 2000

detection in the streamflow of the Euphrates Basin. The If a linear trend is present, the true slope (change per
Mann–Kendall rank correlation test is used for determining unit time) can be estimated by using a simple non-parametric
trend beginning year. The linear slopes of trends are calculated procedure (Sen’s estimator of slope) developed by Sen (1968).
by using Sen’s estimator of slope technique. Details of the tests are given by Yenigun et al. (2008).
The Mann–Kendall method (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) is The binomial probability distribution function is em-
one of the widely used non-parametric tests for detecting trends ployed in this study, which has been previously used by some
in climatological and hydrological time series. It has been used researchers (Livezey and Chen, 1983; Yue et al., 2002) for
by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to assess assessing the significance of the trend. The probability of show-
the trend in environmental data time series (WMO, 1988). ing or exceeding a downward trend at five sites by chance, at a
The method is simple, robust and handles missing and below significance level of 0.05, is 0.8% according to the binominal
detection limit values (Hamed and Rao, 1998; Burn and Elnur, probability distribution function. Thus, it is assumed that the
2002; Xu et al., 2003; Kahya and Kalayci, 2004; Silva, 2004). detected trends in the region may not be due to chance alone.
The effect of serial correlation problems are taken into account So, the cross correlation does not have influence on the test
in the Mann–Kendall test. Choosing the level of significance results.
is an arbitrary task. Therefore, the 0.05 significance level, In this study, a computer program called TAFW (Trend
which is chosen traditionally for many applications, is also Analysis For Windows) which contains the above statistical
used in the analysis. The most common approach for removing trend tests is used for analysing the trend in streamflow (Gumus,
the serial correlation from a data set is pre-whitening (Burn 2006). This is a visual program developed by Gumus and
and Elnur, 2002; Onoz and Bayazıt, 2003; Yue et al., 2003; Yenigun using Borland Delphi (Yenigun et al., 2008).
Bayazıt and Onoz, 2004; Burn et al., 2004a, 2004b). The pre-
whitening approach involves calculating the serial correlation 2.4. Overlay Mapping Technique (OMT)
and removing the correlation if the calculated serial correlation
is significant at the 5% level. In this study, the pre-whitening This technique is an approach that includes various features
procedure is applied to the data set before executing the tests. of the study region (geology, topography and soil, climatic
The rank-based non-parametric statistical Spearman’s Rho conditions) and as mentioned earlier makes the joint compari-
test can also be used to detect a monotonic trend in a time series son possible through map transparencies (Yesilnacar and Cetin,
(Yue et al., 2002). Spearman’s rank correlations test is a quick 2008). Another definition of overlay is an analysis procedure
and simple test to determine whether any significant correlation for determining the spatial coincidence of geographic features.
may exist between two classifications of the same series. In The overlay function output is capable of creating composite
this test, a significant trend occurs only if the correlation maps by combining diverse data sets. These outputs can reflect
between time steps and streamflow observations are found to simple operations such as laying a road map over a map of local
be significant. wetlands, or more sophisticated operations such as multiplying
The Mann–Kendall rank correlation test gives the start point and adding map attributes of different values to determine aver-
in time of a developed trend. This test does not take differences ages and co-occurrences. At its simplest, this could be a visual
in magnitude of the values into account, it only counts the operation, but analytical operations require one or more data
number of consecutive values where the value increases or layers to be joined physically.
decreases compared with the value before. In this study the following steps are performed in sequence.

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 Overlay mapping trend analysis technique 431

1. Trend features are determined for annual mean, minimum trend areas in the maps as the results of trend analysis are
and maximum flows and current trends in the flows, includ- generated by using Arcmap interface.
ing directions of the changes and the starting year. To ensure 4. Finally, the changes of climate and water resources are
practicality, the detected trends in maximum/minimum/mean observed by the trend relationships using the superposition
flows have been the first step for this study (Yenigün et al., of different trends on thematic maps. In this way, past sit-
2008). uations are evaluated and, accordingly, the climatic change
2. The climatic change parameters (temperature, precipitation and its visual relationship to water resources are interpreted.
and relative humidity) which are considered to be effective
in climate are used in the Mann–Kendall test for investiga-
tion of flow trends. The trend tests, described by Yenigun 3. Results and discussion
et al. (2008), are used to estimate trends in the hydromete-
orological data. The results of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho test
3. The Overlay Mapping Technique is employed in order to applications to annual minimum, maximum and mean stream-
examine the changes in hydrological and meteorological flow of the selected stations are summarized in Table 4. The
parameters and the trend results are posted to the basin significant trends are more common in minimum streamflow
map. GIS (Geographical Information Systems) are used for than annual mean streamflow (see Yenigun et al. (2008) for
the purpose of thematic map preparations. Rivers, cities, detailed information).
borders and all trend areas are taken as general parameters. Significant decreasing trends are also detected in the annual
Results from all stations and their trend analysis outputs are daily minimum streamflow of stations 2102, 2122, 2123, 2131
transferred spatially to these maps in digital form by using and 2168 (5 of the 22 stations), which may indicate the presence
ARC-GIS software. Here, the specific criteria for ARC- of dry periods within a year in these rivers. Only station
GIS are the significant trends detected for stations. The 2156 shows an upward trend in the minimum streamflow. For

Table 3. The details of the selected meteorological stations (DMİ, 2009).

Station number Station name Location Station details

Latitude (° ’)N Longitude (° ’E) Altitude (m)

17094 Erzincan Erzincan 39 44 39 30 1218

17096 Erzurum Erzurum 39 57 41 10 1758
17099 Aǧri Aǧri 39 43 43 03 1632
17165 Tunceli Tunceli 39 06 39 33 981
17199 Malatya Malatya 38 21 38 18 948
17201 Elaziǧ Elaziǧ 38 40 39 13 990
17203 Bingöl Bingöl 38 53 40 30 1177
17204 Muş Muş 38 44 41 29 1323
17261 Gaziantep Gaziantep 37 04 37 23 854
17262 Kilis Kilis 36 43 37 05 638
17265 Adiyaman Adiyaman 37 46 38 16 672
17270 Şanliurfa Şanliurfa 37 09 38 47 547
17275 Mardin Mardin 37 18 40 46 1050
17718 Tercan Erzincan 39 46 40 24 1425
17734 Divriǧi Sivas 39 22 38 07 1120
17736 Mazgirt Tunceli 39 01 39 36 1400
17740 Hinis Erzurum 39 21 41 42 1715
17762 Kangal Sivas 39 14 37 23 1541
17764 Arapkir Malatya 39 02 38 29 1200
17766 Aǧin Elaziǧ 38 56 38 43 900
17768 Çemiş gezek Tunceli 39 03 38 56 953
17774 Karakoçan Elaziǧ 38 57 40 03 1090
17776 Solhan Bingöl 38 58 41 03 1366
17780 Malazgirt Muş 39 09 42 33 1565
17804 Keban Elaziǧ 38 48 38 43 808
17806 Palu Elaziǧ 38 42 39 57 1000
17808 Genç Bingöl 38 45 40 36 1250
17842 Balaban Malatya 38 28 37 35 1123
17843 Baskil Elaziǧ 38 34 38 49 1300
17844 Sivrice Elaziǧ 38 26 39 18 1240
17872 Doǧanşehir Malatya 38 05 37 53 1280
17874 Çermik Diyarbakir 38 08 39 28 700
17910 Kahta Adiyaman 37 46 38 38 675
17912 Siverek Şanliurfa 37 45 39 19 801
17948 Nusaybin Mardin 37 05 41 13 500
17966 Birecik Şanliurfa 37 01 37 57 345
17968 Ceylanpinar Şanliurfa 36 50 40 02 360
17980 Akçakale Şanliurfa 36 43 38 57 361

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432 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

Table 4. The results of Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho test for streamflow gauging stations.

SID Part of basin P -value of Mann–Kendall test P -value of Spearman’s Rho test
Mean Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum
streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow

2102 Middle 0.4165 0.0230 0.4548 0.4052 0.0250 0.4562

2115 Lower 0.3790 0.0791 0.0892 0.3745 0.1292 0.0708
2119 Upper 0.1971 0.3492 0.0892 0.2483 0.3936 0.3336
2122 Middle 0.2105 0.0074 0.4060 0.2420 0.0071 0.3745
2123 Lower 0.2635 0.0094 0.1119 0.1685 0.0089 0.1335
2124 Lower 0.2635 0.1976 0.0848 0.2578 0.1685 0.0708
2131 Lower 0.0327 0.0085 0.0491 0.0475 0.0069 0.0537
2132 Lower 0.0099 0.3200 0.4837 0.0104 0.3372 0.4286
2135 Lower 0.2568 0.1329 0.0616 0.0446 0.0446 0.0694
2141 Upper 0.4174 0.1963 0.3232 0.3632 0.2005 0.2709
2145 Lower 0.1447 0.0387 0.0598 0.1038 0.0344 0.0537
2149 Upper 0.2477 0.5000 0.4827 0.2709 0.4681 0.4880
2151 Upper 0.3364 0.2108 0.1180 0.2981 0.2090 0.1190
2154 Upper 0.4459 0.1460 0.3542 0.4247 0.1075 0.3632
2156 Upper 0.0479 0.0136 0.4192 0.0485 0.0122 0.3409
2157 Middle 0.4459 0.1105 0.2933 0.4522 0.0446 0.2546
2158 Middle 0.3852 0.2592 0.0767 0.4602 0.2119 0.0694
2164 Middle 0.4548 0.0767 0.1884 0.3936 0.0505 0.2061
2165 Lower 0.2489 0.4356 0.1694 0.2266 0.3085 0.1922
2166 Upper 0.2969 0.4858 0.3473 0.2843 0.4325 0.3121
2167 Upper 0.2806 0.4163 0.2461 0.2676 0.4681 0.2206
2168 Upper 0.2797 0.0092 0.1431 0.2843 0.0078 0.1401

: upward trend, : downward trend; bold values.

Table 5. The beginning year of observed trends for stream flow gauging stations according to Mann–Kendall rank correlation test and the values
of Sen’s slope.

SID Part of basin The beginning year Sen’s slope (m3 s−1 per year)
Mean Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum
streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow streamflow

2102 Middle – 1982 – −1.0592 −0.5623 −9.3611

2115 Lower – – – −0.4501 −0.2707 −7.2287
2119 Upper – – – 0.1928 −0.0461 1.9500
2122 Middle – 1985 – −0.0892 −0.0922 −3.8750
2123 Lower – 1983 – −0.0607 −0.0641 0.2366
2124 Lower – – – −0.0135 −0.0271 −0.5400
2131 Lower – 1972 – −0.0142 −0.0073 −0.3046
2132 Lower 1972 – – −0.0147 0.0000 −0.0295
2135 Lower – – – −0.0093 −0.0126 −0.3400
2141 Upper – – – 0.0000 −0.1171 5.2166
2145 Lower – – – −0.1461 −0.1363 −1.2166
2149 Upper – – – 0.0350 −0.0653 0.4000
2151 Upper – – – −0.1961 −0.0943 −2.8249
2154 Upper – – – −0.0489 −0.0155 −0.0801
2156 Upper – 1994 – 0.7611 0.4294 −0.8333
2157 Middle – – – −0.0208 0.0079 0.2798
2158 Middle – – – −0.0133 −0.0080 2.0000
2164 Middle – – – 0.0348 −0.0503 −4.0277
2165 Lower – – – −0.0091 −0.0017 −0.7333
2166 Upper – – – 0.3300 0.0100 −0.9285
2167 Upper – – – −0.2530 −0.0245 −4.5634
2168 Upper – 1990 – −0.0007 −0.0028 −0.0768

The beginning years belonging to the bold values.

annual daily maximum streamflow, none of the stations has released by the dams downstream for sustainable protection
a significant trend. The decrease in low flows is especially of ecological cycles.
important for the location of the water treatment facility, The start years of the observed trends are given in Table 5.
the quantity of irrigation, and water supply. The changes in The range of the beginning detected trend years is between
low-flow statistics also affect the minimum water quantity 1971 and 1994. There are 35 dams used for irrigation and

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 Overlay mapping trend analysis technique 433

(a) (b)

Figure 2. The detected trends in the annual minimum streamflow (a) and in the annual mean streamflow (b) on Euphrates Basin.

Table 6. The results of Mann–Kendall test for meteorological observation stations.

Station Station Precipitation Temperature Humidity

number name
Total Max Mean Max Min Mean Max Min

17094 Erzincan
° ° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17096 Erzurum (−) (−) (−) (+) (−) (+) (+)
°
17099 Aǧri
° ° ° ° (+)
° (+) (+)
17165 Tunceli
° ° (+)
° ° ° ° (+)
17199 Malatya
° ° (+) (+) (+)
° ° °
17201 Elaziǧ
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17203 Bingöl
° ° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
17204 Muş
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17261 Gaziantep
° ° (+) (+) (+)
° (+)
°
17262 Kilis
° ° (+)
° (+)
° ° °
17265 Adiyaman
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° (+)
17270 Şanliurfa
° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17275 Mardin
° ° (+) (+)
° (−) (−)
°
17718 Tercan
° ° (+)
° ° ° (−) (+)
17734 Divriǧi
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17736 Mazgirt
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17740 Hinis
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17744 Karakoçan
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+)
°
17762 Kangal
° ° ° (+)
° (+)
° °
17764 Arapkir
° ° (+) (+) (+) (−)
° (−)
17766 Aǧin
° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
°
17768 Çemişgezek
° ° (+) (+)
° (+) (+)
°
17776 Solhan
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+)
°
17780 Malazgirt
° ° (+) (+)
° (−) (−)
°
17804 Keban
° ° (+)
° ° ° ° °
17806 Palu
° ° ° (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17808 Genç
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° (−)
17842 Balaban (−)
° ° (+)
° ° (+) (−)
17843 Baskil
° ° ° ° ° (−) (−) (−)
17844 Sivrice
° ° (+) (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17872 Doǧanşehir
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17874 Çermik
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+) (+)
17910 Kahta
° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
°
17912 Siverek
° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17948 Nusaybin
° ° ° (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17968 Ceylanpinar
° ° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
17980 Akçakale (−)
° ° ° ° (+) (+)
°
°
(+): upward trend; (−): downward trend; ( ): no trend.

energy production in the Euphrates Basin, with the largest ones including precipitation and temperature. So, the presence of
being the Keban, Karakaya and Ataturk dams (DSİ, 2007). trends in Turkish streamflow patterns are generally attributed
Although the rivers in this study have a relatively natural to the decreases in rainfall (Partal and Kahya, 2006; Kahya and
flow, it is interesting that the starting years for operation of Kalayci, 2004; Cigizoglu et al., 2005).
those dams (1975, 1987 and 1992) are in the period of the The Sen’s slopes of all trends in streamflow are also
start years of the observed trends (1971–1994). This may presented in Table 5. The statistically significant slopes, which
be attributed to other factors such as climatologic variables are founded by ArcGIS, are highlighted with bold font. The

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

434 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

Table 7. The results of Spearman’s Rho test for meteorological observation stations.

Station Station Precipitation Temperature Humidity

number name
Total Max Mean Max Min Mean Max Min

17094 Erzincan
° ° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17096 Erzurum (−) (−) (−) (+) (−) (+) (+)
°
17099 Aǧri
° ° ° ° (+)
° (+) (+)
17165 Tunceli
° ° (+)
° ° ° ° (+)
17199 Malatya
° ° (+) (+) (+)
° ° °
17201 Elaziǧ
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17203 Bingöl
° ° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
17204 Muş
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17261 Gaziantep
° ° (+) (+) (+)
° (+)
°
17262 Kilis
° ° (+)
° (+)
° ° °
17265 Adiyaman
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° (+)
17270 Şanliurfa
° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17275 Mardin
° ° (+) (+)
° (−) (−)
°
17718 Tercan
° ° (+)
° ° ° (−) (+)
17734 Divriǧi
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17736 Mazgirt
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17740 Hinis
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° °
17744 Karakoçan
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+)
°
17762 Kangal
° ° ° (+)
° (+)
° °
17764 Arapkir
° ° (+) (+) (+) (−)
° (−)
17766 Aǧin
° ° (+) (+)
° ° (+)
°
17768 Çemişgezek
° ° (+) (+)
° (+) (+)
°
17776 Solhan
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+)
°
17780 Malazgirt
° ° (+) (+)
° (−) (−)
°
17804 Keban
° ° (+)
° ° ° ° °
17806 Palu
° ° ° (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17808 Genç
° ° ° (+)
° ° ° (−)
17842 Balaban (−)
° ° (+)
° ° (+) (−)
17843 Baskil
° ° ° ° ° (−) (−) (−)
17844 Sivrice
° ° (+) (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17872 Doǧanşehir
° ° (+) (+)
° ° ° °
17874 Çermik
° ° ° ° ° (+) (+) (+)
17910 Kahta
° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
°
17912 Siverek
° ° (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+)
17948 Nusaybin
° ° ° (+)
° (−)
° (−)
17968 Ceylanpinar
° ° ° ° ° ° ° (+)
17980 Akçakale (−)
° ° ° ° (+)
° °
°
(+): upward trend; (−): downward trend; ( ): no trend.

sign of the slopes are consistent with the Mann–Kendall and By examining the watershed-based queries (with a significant
Spearman’s Rho test results (Table 4). In Figure 2, the detected decreasing trend in the western, southern and southwestern
trends in annual minimum and mean streamflow are shown on sections of the basin for annual minimum flow), one can obtain
the Euphrates Basin map, respectively. Downward trends are meaningful results and see the links between the temperature
observed in both annual mean and minimum streamflow for the and humidity values. By taking the thematic maps derived from
stations at the lower part of Euphrates Basin near the Syrian provincial areas into account, the following interpretation may
border. An upward trend exists in annual minimum streamflow be derived from Figure 4.
for only one station at the upper part of the Euphrates Basin. An obvious upward trend appears around Şanlıurfa,
The results of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests’ partially upward trends are observed around Erzurum and Erz-
applications to meteorological parameters at selected stations incan and a downward trend is present around Mardin. How-
are summarized in Tables 6 and 7, which indicate that the ever, partially downward trends are found around Aǧrı and
Mann–Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests consistently yield Muş for the mean humidity value; again upward trends appear
almost the same results. No meaningful trend has been observed around Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep. On the other hand, partially
in the computations for daily minimum precipitation. The upward trends become obvious around Adıyaman, Erzincan
statistically significant Sen’s slopes are presented in Table 8 and Erzurum for the maximum humidity values in addition
for all parameters. The same period has been used for all trend to a significant upward trend around Şanlıurfa Erzincan and
calculations. Aǧrı with partially upward trends around Adıyaman for the
The thematic maps are drawn by ArcGIS allowing a variety minimum humidity values. Furthermore, upward trends exist
of queries by overlay mapping techniques. In Figure 3, the around Gaziantep, Kilis and Malatya with partially upward
detected trends are shown for total and maximum precipitation; trends around Şanlıurfa, Adıyaman, Tunceli, Sivas and Erzincan
mean, maximum and minimum temperature; mean, maximum for the mean temperature values. Finally, there are clear upward
and minimum humidity of the Euphrates Basin. trends around all cities for the maximum temperature values.

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

 Overlay mapping trend analysis technique 435

Table 8. The values of Sen’s slope for meteorological observation stations.

Station Station Precipitation Temperature Humidity

number name
Total Max Mean Max Min Mean % Max % Min %
cm year−1 mm year−1 °Cyear−1 °C year−1 °C year−1 year−1 year−1 year−1

17094 Erzincan – – – 0.0115 0.0348 0.0825 0.0476 0.1443

17096 Erzurum – −0.0339 – 0.0153 −0.0516 0.0734 0.0519 –
17099 Aǧri – – −0.0139 – 0.0234 – 0.0315 0.1413
17165 Tunceli – – 0.0234 – – – – 0.1956
17199 Malatya – – 0.036 0.0212 0.0172 – – –
17201 Elaziǧ – – – 0.0183 – – – –
17203 Bingöl – – – – – – – 0.1464
17204 Muş – – 0.0346 0.0589 – – – –
17261 Gaziantep – – 0.0196 0.0238 0.0537 – 0.0833 –
17262 Kilis – – 0.0174 – 0.0584 – – –
17265 Adiyaman – – 0.0173 0.0391 – – – 0.1917
17270 Şanliurfa – – 0.0088 0.0095 0.0418 0.0940 0.1429 0.0783
17275 Mardin – – 0.0092 0.0292 – −0.0814 −0.0590 –
17718 Tercan – – 0.0273 – – – −0.1082 0.1375
17734 Divriǧi – – 0.0272 0.0441 – – – –
17736 Mazgirt – – – 0.0774 – – – –
17740 Hinis – – – 0.0279 – – – –
17744 Karakoça – – – – – 0.3487 0.1809 –
17762 Kangal – – – 0.0431 – 0.1192 – –
17764 Arapkir – – 0.0394 0.0313 0.0367 −0.1743 – −0.1140
17766 Aǧin – – 0.0373 0.0477 – – 0.1409 –
17768 Çemişgezek – – 0.0266 0.0611 – 0.1451 0.1660 –
17776 Solhan – – – – – 0.1265 0.1771 –
17780 Malazgirt – – 0.0242 0.0507 – −0.3693 −0.1326 –
17804 Keban – – 0.0211 – – – – –
17806 Palu – – – 0.0379 – −0.2823 – 0.3935
17808 Genç – – – 0.0534 – – – −0.2891
17842 Balaban – – – 0.1281 – – 0.1439 −0.5833
17843 Baskil – – – – – −0.5410 −0.3125 −0.4028
17844 Sivrice – – 0.0477 0.0750 – −0.35211 – −0.7578
17872 Doǧanşehi – – 0.0350 0.0444 – – – –
17874 Çermik – – – – – 0.4609 0.3611 0.4808
17910 Kahta – – – – – – 0.7202 –
17912 Siverek – – 0.0192 0.0333 0.0303 0.2842 0.1605 0.2439
17948 Nusaybin – – – 0.0272 – −0.0403 – −0.2579
17968 Ceylanpin – – – – – – – 0.1319
17980 Akçakale – – – – – 0.1382 – –

Partially upward trends are observable around are downward trends for the annual mean minimum stream-
Gaziantep, Kilis, Şanlıurfa and Erzincan in comparison to par- flow with upward counterparts for the annual mean temperature
tially downward trends around Erzurum for the minimum tem- and humidity values. Important downward trends are observed
perature values. In the east a partially downward trend emerged around Şanlıurfa and Gaziantep for the annual mean minimum
around Erzurum for the total precipitation values together with a streamflow together with an upward trend for the annual max-
partially downward trend for the maximum precipitation values. imum temperature and humidity values.
The generated spatial maps are overlayed according to their
data types and the significant ones are given in Figure 4. The
following results can be drawn from this figure. 4. Conclusions
Whilst a clear downward trend is observed around Şanlıurfa
This work is an original case study employing trend analysis
for annual mean minimum streamflow, an upward trend exists
and development of thematic maps covering the upstream
for the annual mean humidity values. In the meantime, obvious portion of the Euphrates basin in Turkey. The results are shown
downward trends are found around Şanlıurfa and Adıyaman on a GIS based map.
for annual mean minimum streamflow, with an upward trend The trend values in temperature, humidity and precipitation
for the annual maximum humidity values. However, significant are processed in the form of maps, which are then used
downward trends prevail around Gaziantep, Kilis, Şanlıurfa, for the overlay method. In this manner, significant areas are
Adıyaman and Malatya for the annual mean minimum stream- indicated on the maps leading to the observable changes
flow with an upward trend for the annual mean tempera- on thematic maps. Moreover, using this type of climatic
ture values. Gaziantep, Mardin, Şanlıurfa, Adıyaman, Malatya, change map, it is also possible to process and monitor the
Aǧrı and Erzurum have downward trends for the annual mean effects of other parameters, as well as topographical or other
minimum streamflow in addition to an upward trend for the physical conditions. The new man-made changes (such as
annual maximum temperature values. Around Şanlıurfa there dams, new irrigation) could be included on the developed

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

436 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

(g) (h)

Figure 3. The detected trends for Euphrates Basin: (a) annual total precipitation, (b) annual maximum precipitation, (c) annual mean temperature,
(d) annual maximum temperature, (e) annual minimum temperature, (f) annual mean humidity, (g) annual maximum humidity, (h) annual
minimum humidity.

database-map and accordingly it will be possible to evaluate By the evaluation of thematic regions and considering both
the positive/negative outcomes. the new irrigation areas and dams built in the GAP project
The overlay mapping technique supports detection of the within the last 15 years, the climate change effects can be
climatic parameters’ effects on the available water resources. assessed properly. For example, while an increasing humidity
It also helps to show the effect of climate change on water is observed in the lower Euphrates basin (at irrigation areas),
resources. Moreover, these maps are also important to evaluate the lower humidity values are observed in Mardin (at the high
the effects of climate change on the various water resources altitude areas). This is valid for both the mean and the maximum
in the field. As a result of the visual evaluation of these humidity values.
maps, it may be possible to make effective assessments on Serious increasing trends of the mean and maximum temper-
parameters influencing the water resources to achieve their atures in conjunction with the partial decreasing trends of the
high performance, measures and economic management of the annual total and maximum rainfall are important to make logi-
watershed. cal decisions concerning the significant decrease in streamflow.

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

 Overlay mapping trend analysis technique 437

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

(g) (h)

Figure 4. The overlayered map between (a) the downward trend of annual min. streamflow and the downward trend of total precipitation, (b) the
downward trend of annual min. streamflow and the downward trend of max. precipitation, (c) the downward trend of annual minimum streamflow
and the upward trend of mean humidity, (d) the downward trend of annual minimum streamflow and the upward trend of maximum humidity,
(e) the downward trend of annual min. streamflow and the upward trend of mean temperature, (f) the downward trend of annual minimum
streamflow and the upward trend of maximum temperature, (g) among the downward trend of annual minimum streamflow and the upward trend
of mean humidity and the upward trend of mean temperature, (h) among the downward trend of annual min. streamflow and the upward trend
of maximum humidity and the upward trend of maximum temperature for Euphrates.

Besides, information of the addition of the decreasing trends The results of this study concerning the Euphrates Basin are
on annual mean streamflow around the trans-boundary waters likely to be useful for the following purposes:
are significant for water resources planners.
The study has important results for the GAP region which • investigation of the climatic change effects on water
includes many dams and irrigation projects. Because the GAP resources;
project is built on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which are • determination of possible decreases and its causes for water
the largest rivers of Turkey, the GAP project is still under resources, and,
construction and operation. Also, these rivers are very important • evaluation of water scarcity in future and drought situations
transboundary waters of the countries of Turkey, Syria and Iraq. on the water resources situations.

 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)

438 K. Yenigun and R. Ecer

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 2012 Royal Meteorological Society Meteorol. Appl. 20: 427–438 (2013)