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Timken Case

The document provides quarterly sales data for Tata Timken Company from 2007-2010. [SENTENCE 1] It shows that sales were consistently lower in Q1 and higher in Q4 each year, indicating a seasonal trend. [SENTENCE 2] The vice president's forecast of Rs. 105 crore for January sales would be a large error compared to past data, which could be due to failure to properly account for seasonal trends or changes in the broader market. [SENTENCE 3]

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Neeharika. Gopisetti
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113 views4 pages

Timken Case

The document provides quarterly sales data for Tata Timken Company from 2007-2010. [SENTENCE 1] It shows that sales were consistently lower in Q1 and higher in Q4 each year, indicating a seasonal trend. [SENTENCE 2] The vice president's forecast of Rs. 105 crore for January sales would be a large error compared to past data, which could be due to failure to properly account for seasonal trends or changes in the broader market. [SENTENCE 3]

Uploaded by

Neeharika. Gopisetti
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Tata Timken Company Limited Case

a) The Quarter wise sales for all the years are as follows:

Sales (Crore)
Quarter 2007 2008 2009 2010

Q1 30.33 38.67 45 49.33

Q2 45 57.33 58 63.67

Q3 61 68 77 83.67

Q4 78 76.67 89.33 96.33


QUARTER
2007 2008 2009 2010

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

The X-axis of the curve represents sales in crores and the Y-axis represents the
quarters Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 of the four consecutive years starting from 2007 to 2010.

b) The seasonal variation was present in the data which was given for four years.
Every year in the first Quarter i.e. Q1 from 2007,2008,2009,2010 shows less sales
and the highest level of sales occurred in the fourth quarter Q4 in all the four
years.
c)
Question & Answer:

Q) Assuming that the January sale for the next year turns out to be Rs.105crore,
find out the vice president’s forecast error. If the error is large, what factors might
have contributed to the same? What should the vice president do to reduce this
error?

A) The sales for 2011 cannot scale up to 105 Crores by using any of the methods,
either moving averages method or the exponential smoothening method. The
sales forecast with these would give approximately 40 crores but definitely not
around 105 crores. If the sales have to be that way there should be hike in the
income of the customer and the market should be in the peak.

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