David Segersson - SMHI
David Segersson - SMHI
David Segersson - SMHI
Presented by:
David Segersson
SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)
[email protected]
Scope
Air Quality Management
Components
Meteorological measurements
Monitoring
AQM-systems
Recommendations
Air Quality Management
Objective
Limit the impact on environment and human
health caused by the emission of harmful
substances
Tools
Monitoring
Emission inventories
Dispersion models
Detailed
Dispersion modelling mapping
Mapping of air quality makes it
possible to address:
- Population exposure
- Health impact
- Economical impact
Scenario calculations
- Evaluating measures
- ”What if?” scenarios
Impact assessment
Receptor modelling
Statistical analysis of modelling results
and monitoring data
Results in correlation maps showing
Position of emissions
Kohtla-
Emission intensity Järve
station
Could be used together with fence-line
monitoring, e.g. to estimate H2S
emissions and provide input for Liikuv-
scenario calculations Öhulabor
station
Emission localisation
Kohtla Järve, Oil shale industry, Estonia
Incidental releases of harmful substances
- Characteristics
Sudden event, fast course
Short distances - mainly affects the people within the plant and right outside
Large emissions due to tank bursts, ruptures of pipes etc.
Substances are often more dense than air
Quantity of emissions are often very uncertain
Dispersion is difficult to predict due to turbulence
Wind speed [m/s]
Time
Meteorological measurements
Measured wind direction can be used directly as an indication on in which
direction emissions are dispersed
Detailed met data is required for dispersion models
Important to place meteorological mast in a undisturbed and representative
location
A meteorological mast should be at least
10 m.
Placed away from large buildings and trees
Example of wind flow pattern around
buildings
A diagnostic wind model can be used to estimate a wind field from a number of
meteorological masts
+ Simple
- Innumerable possible scenarios
- rough - easy to overreact
Example – scenario calculations at Nynas
refinery in Sweden
2 worst case scenarios
- Large SO2 emissions from flare
- Pipe-burst
Objectives
- Updated radiuses of limit values on
site map
- Determine if the plume from the flare
can reach ground level during
incidents
- Determine time for plume to reach
nearby power plant
- Determine maximum concentrations
at nearest neighbour Nynas refinery, Nynäshamn, Sweden
- Increased understanding of risks
Emission scenarios – pipe burst example
0.2
0.18
Release rate [kg/s]
0.16
Unlimited
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06 Limited
0.04
0.02
0
0 4 9 13 17 22
Seconds
If no action is taken Hydrogen Sulphide gas will flow continuously
When the valve on the outlet pipe is closed, the release becomes limited
and the pressure in the system will decrease
Threshold concentrations evaluated for
H2S at Nynas refinery
Conc. (ppm) Type of threshold Description
0.03 Olifactory (smell) threshold Very individual (0.008-0.2 ppm)
15 TGV Swedish threshold for short-term exposure (15 min)
30 ERPG-2 Max conc. during 1 hour not causing serious health
effects
100 ERPG-3 Max conc. during 1 hour not causing life-threatening
health effects.
Makes quality control and analysis more efficient and let you focus on the
conclusions
By combining tools and data from different sources, it makes more advanced
analysis possible:
Forecasts, dispersion modelling, people exposure calculations, real-time
dispersion modelling, inverse modelling, receptor modelling
Web publishing, ,
AQM-systems - incident scenarios
For use during incidents – everything
needs to be running!
Combines real-time meteorological
measurements with emissions to run
dispersion models
Continuous or predictive emission
monitoring can be used to feed the
dispersion model with detailed information
regarding emissions
Can raise alarms, and results showing
areas with concentrations above
thresholds
Gas detectors
Fence-line monitoring
Good practice guidance
- Scenario calculations
Define worst case regarding emissions and meteorology
Define your objectives well and plan how you will use the scenarios
For most critical scenarios, use CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) with
turbulence described by Large Eddy Simulation to get a more realistic example
of the expected dispersion.
If possible, using the local Air Quality Management system will make it easier to
reproduce and update the scenarios – not updated scenarios quickly become
irrelevant