Artificial Intelligence & Robotics: Industry Report & Investment Case
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics: Industry Report & Investment Case
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Artificial
Robotics
Intelligence
One of the first concepts that come to mind when picturing an example of an artificially intelligent machine is
Sophia: a social humanoid robot powered by AI that was developed by Hong Kong-based Hanson Robotics2. She is
also the first robot in the world to have a nationality after being granted a Saudi Arabian citizenship. Sophia is a
human-like robot powered by human-like artificial intelligence—a very intuitive concept.
The reality is, however, that artificially intelligent machines go far beyond humanoid robots; each intelligent robot
can take many different forms and can be designed to satisfy a variety of needs. Some examples of AI-enabled
robots are disk-shaped robots that vacuum floors, computers that combine eye tracking and speech recognition to
replace the keyboard and mouse, unmanned aircrafts, software for analyzing and optimizing designs, and genomics
research products.
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One reason is that AI and robotics, separately, have been exploding. Some of these insights are captured by
Stanford University’s AI Index report5, which shows the number of Computer Science research papers that mention
“Artificial Intelligence” has grown more than 9 times since 1996.
Comparing academic papers from all fields, papers in the field of Computer Science (CS), and AI papers within CS,
the Stanford report also found that the annual publishing rate of AI papers within CS has experienced the fastest
growth of the three, relative to publishing rates in 1996.
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There has also been considerable development and investment in AI, with more startups developing AI systems and
more venture capital firms funding them, as shown in the charts below.
Like the AI field, the robotics industry has also seen fast-paced growth since the year 2000. In fact, according to
Siemens (using data from the International Federation of Robotics and others), spending on the global robotics
market has grown 2.5 times from 2005 to 2015, and the pace at which the industry is growing is expected to
accelerate in future years.6
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In addition to said growth in the robotics market, there has been a rise in labor costs and drop in robot prices,
as one McKinsey & Company analysis showed7. These two factors have a direct impact on robot demand: on the
one hand, employers are seeking cheaper and more efficient labor given mounting labor costs, particularly in
highly-specialized fields where employers have to bid up for top talent; on the other hand, individuals are finding
consumer robots more attractive given dropping robot prices.
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Some recent technological breakthroughs that are driving growth in the AI and robotics field are the following:
• Unlimited access: Cloud computing and public data are growing rapidly, enabling a breakthrough
in AI computational capability
• Big Data: Artificial intelligence feeds on data to analyze it and make strategic “intelligent”
decisions. The International Data Corporation predicts that the amount of data in the world will
grow ten times by 2025 to 163 zettabytes from the 16.1ZB of data generated in 20168
• Next Wave Robotics: The sophistication of robotics has grown significantly reflected in devices
like drones or intelligent surgical devices, for instance
• Machine Cooperation: One of the greatest advantages of smart robots is that they are able to
communicate vast amounts of information very quickly to other robots, and together they have
the potential to learn from a pool of shared experiences
• Knowledge Sharing: If one intelligent robot learns something, that lesson can be easily distributed
to other robots. This allows smart robots to learn significantly faster than humans
Other factors like adoption, demand and investment are also impacting the field:
• Demand for Augmented Human Function: Average productivity changes in the nonfarm business
sector fell from 2.6% during the 2000-2007 period to 1.2% from 2007-20179, according to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and smart robots that would help increase productivity measures
hold promise
• Adoption Among Professional Services: Robo-advisors and surgical robots are some examples
• Government R&D: The UK announced £ 68 million pounds (about $94.2 million USD) in funding for
AI and robotics research on November 8th 201710; China is building an AI research industrial park
for $2.1 billion USD11; and the US is already leading in AI research funding
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The competitive landscape in this field is currently dominated by large international companies who are able to
design, produce or enhance robots and/or artificial intelligence at a low cost and are able to generate revenue both
from direct and indirect sales. Some of the largest leading companies in the space are Samsung, Apple, Tencent,
Alphabet and Facebook. There are smaller companies, however, like business software company Cloudera and
unmanned aircraft company AeroVironment, that are breaking into the space by providing highly specialized AI
and/or robotics.
Some of the primary markets that AI and robotics companies are targeting are:
The Index is constructed such that the underlying securities represent a robust coverage of the space while
ensuring investability, adequate liquidity and size.
Eligibility criteria:
• Minimum market cap of $250M
• Minimum 3-Month average daily dollar volume of $3M
• Minimum free float of 20%
• Classified as an Artificial Intelligence or Robotics company as an enabler, engager or enhancer as determined by
Consumer Technology Association (CTA):
1. Enablers are companies that develop the building block components for robotics or artificial intelligence,
such as advanced machinery, autonomous systems/self-driving vehicles, semiconductors, databases used for
machine learning
2. Engagers are companies that design, create, integrate, or deliver robotics and/or artificial intelligence in the
form of products, software, or systems
3. Enhancers are companies that provide their own value-added services within the Artificial Intelligence and
Robotics ecosystem, but which are not core to their product or service offering
The top 30 securities (or more inclusive of ties) within each of the three categories – Enablers, Engagers and
Enhancers - are selected for a total of 90 (or more inclusive of ties) securities in the Index at the time of the semi-
annual evaluations utilizing CTA’s AI/Robotics Intensity Rating. This rating is designed to capture the perceived degree
of a company’s AI/Robotics sector involvement within each respective Engager, Enabler and Enhancer category.
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The index employs a modified equal weighting methodology where each category receives the following weights:
With each category having 30 securities, what that July. The results of the semi-annual evaluations go
means is that, as of each rebalance, each security effective after the close of trading the third Friday in
classified as an Enabler is assigned a weight of 25%/30 March and September. The other two quarters, June
= 0.83%, each Engager is assigned a weight of 2%, and and December, have index rebalances, where weights
each Enhancer is assigned a weight of 0.5%. are adjusted to be brought back in-line to the stated
weighting methodology of the index (explained further
The reasoning behind why a significantly larger weight below), but no other review is enacted at those times.
is assigned to the Engagers category is that AI and Note that these weights are assigned as of the end of
robotics products developed, integrated or delivered by February, May, August and November that go effective
companies in this category account for a large portion after the close of trading the third Friday the following
of the company’s revenue. Following a similar logic, month (March, June, September, December).
companies in the Enablers category receive a significant
yet more indirect impact in terms of revenue from The growth of the companies in the Nasdaq CTA
AI/robotics products. Last, it is important to capture Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Index from a total
companies that overlay their own value-added services return standpoint (NQROBOT) is remarkable. Though the
to devices in the industry, but since these are not the core live Index officially launched on December 18, 2017,
revenue generating services of the companies in question, NQROBOT has outperformed the S&P 500 TR Index by
the Enhancers category is capped at a lower weight. more than 1000% since its first day of back-tested history
in September 2001 through the end of February 2018.
The index is evaluated semi-annually in March and
September using data through the end of January and
Index Performance
1600%
1400%
NQROBOT
1200% 1319.09%
1000%
800%
600%
SPXT
400% 291.28%
200%
0%
-200%
9/21/01
9/21/03
9/21/05
9/21/07
9/21/09
9/21/11
9/21/13
9/21/15
9/21/17
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From an ICB Industry perspective, it’s not surprising to see more than half of the companies fall in the
Technology industry.
Industrials
Telecommunications
Technology
7.6%
7.4%
0.4%
While it’s helpful to see the way in which securities are classified within a classification framework such as ICB, it’s
important to note that the diversification element within this Index is truly driven by the different types of AI and
Robotics companies: Engagers, Enablers, and Enhancers. As such, that is why the Index has the cap at 30 securities
within each category.
The top ten holdings as of January 31, 2018, are shown here. The average market cap of securities in the top ten
is $7.8B.
2.40%
2.30%
2.20%
2.10%
2.00%
1.90%
Hexagon -B-
SERVICENOW, Inc
Aveva Group Rg
Cloudera, Inc
AEROVIRONMENT. INC.
OBIC Rg
IROBOT CORPORATION
GENTEX CORP
NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS
TOPCON
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Not included in the top ten but in the Index are eleven mega cap companies whose market cap was over $100B as
of January 31, 2018. They are shown in the chart with their respective Index weights. Their lower weights indicate
that they were not classified as Engagers but rather as Enhancers or Enablers. This shows that, while the mega cap
companies are certainly represented in this Index as Enhancers and Enablers, much larger exposure is given to the
types of companies that directly offer products and services related to this space.
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
APPLE INC-
Samsung Elecron Rg
SAP SE ADS
Siemens N
Tencent Hldg Rg
ALPHABET CL A CMN
FACEBOOK INC
INTEL CORP
NVIDIA CORPORATION
QUALCOMM INC
Interestingly, as of January 31, 2018, the average market cap of all companies in the Nasdaq CTA Artificial
Intelligence & Robotics Index was higher than the S&P 500 at $55.6B vs $49.6B. However, at a weighted average
market cap perspective (index weight of each security times its respective market cap) it follows that the S&P 500
is higher because the Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Index gravitates towards having smaller cap
names in the Engager category (weighted average market cap chart shown with data as of January 31, 2018).
380
375
370
365
360
355
350
345
340
NQROBO SPX
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Given the nature of the Artificial Intelligence and Robotics industries, it follows that there is a strong focus on
research and development. Taking that in proportion to sales, the Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence & Robotics
Index has a higher figure, on average, than the S&P 500.
R&D as % of Sales
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
NQROBO SPX
Since year-end 2010 to the end of February 2018, the underlying price return indexes, the Nasdaq CTA Artificial
Intelligence & Robotics Index (NQROBO), the ROBO Global® Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the
Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index (IBOTZ), which do not account for dividends, have
performed fairly similarly. (Price return values are shown below since IBOTZ does not have a publically available
total return index).
Index Performance
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
50%
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Additionally, annualized volatility figures of the three indexes are summarized below. The table shows that in
recent periods, NQROBO’s volatility has generally been fairly close to ROBO and lower than IBOTZ.
Despite similarities in terms of past performance and somewhat similar volatility figures, the underlying baskets
of the three indexes vary widely. Since these three indexes were designed to provide a global exposure to the
AI, robotics and automation fields, one would assume that in such a niche space, these would track fairly similar
baskets. But as one recent Bloomberg Intelligence research piece by Psarofagis and Balchunas compared, out of
142 unique holdings across the ETFs, only 15 exist in all three.15
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The disparity in the underlying baskets stems from the different approaches in their methodologies and
weighting schemes.
NUMBER OF COMPONENTS 88 88 29
Weighting Equal Weight within each Equal Weight within each (60%) Market Cap Weighted
category: category:
• Enablers (25%) • Bellwether (40%)
• Engagers (60%) • Non-Bellwether
• Enhancers (15%)
Enhancer 23 The important difference about NQROBO when compared to the other
two indexes in AI/Robotics is that its tiered methodology is designed to
Total 48
track the three levels of the AI and robotics industry involvement. While
IBOTZ and ROBO include companies that either serve as building blocks or
are directly involved in creating products or services, these indexes generally overlook companies that leverage
artificial intelligence and robotics to make these products or services more valuable. Examples of these “enhancer”
companies in NQROBO that not appear in IBOTZ or ROBT are shown below.
Enhancers:
• Tesla Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells high-performance electric vehicles and electric vehicle powertrain
components.
• Facebook, Inc. is a social networking website that allows people to communicate with friends, family and
coworkers.
• Tencent Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides Internet and mobile value-added services
(VAS), online advertising services, and e-commerce transactions services.
In addition to this important difference, the three indexes in the space provide quite distinct country and industry
exposures despite the fact that in theory these all provide global exposure to the AI and robotics space.
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In the table below, NQROBO assigns the highest weight to companies domiciled in the USA (56%) followed by ROBO
(42%), while IBOTZ tilts more heavily towards Japan (50%).
When comparing the industry breakdown of the three indexes in question, NQROBO provides the highest exposure
to the Technology sector (52%) when compared to IBOTZ (10%) and ROBO (19%). The other big difference is that
IBOTZ and ROBO both assign the highest weight to Industrials (77% and 65%, respectively), while NQROBO allocates
a lower weight (33%) to this sector.
This analysis shows that while NQROBO, IBOTZ and ROBO all perform similarly and share the common themes
of global AI, robotics and automation, their underlying components can vary greatly from one index to another.
Specifically, the Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Index includes companies in a tiered approach,
indicating that this index is poised to provide investors with exposure to companies that are involved in all stages
of the artificial intelligence and robotics market.
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Conclusion
This analysis illustrates how technological advancements and increasing implementation and demand of artificial
intelligence and robotics products, as well as the possibility of merging these fields as shown by the Fourth
Industrial Revolution, have caused the AI/Robotics field to grow exponentially. The impact of AI and robotics
growth spans various industries from tech and industrials to healthcare and consumer products. The Nasdaq CTA
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Index (NQROBO) offers investors a robust exposure to the global AI and robotics
market while ensuring investability, sufficient liquidity and size. As a result, NQROBO’s methodology, which
includes Enablers, Engagers and Enhancers, captures companies at the three stages of the AI and Robotics field.
Investors looking to get exposure to the artificial intelligence and robotics industries can invest in the product tied
to NQROBO, the First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (ROBT).
Footnotes:
1. https://blog.robotiq.com/whats-the-difference-between-robotics-and-artificial-intelligence
2. http://www.hansonrobotics.com/robot/sophia/
3. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/john-mccarthy-computer-scientist-known-as-the-father-of-ai-6255307.html
4. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/08/unimate-the-story-of-george-devol-and-the-first-robotic-arm/243716/
5. http://cdn.aiindex.org/2017-report.pdf
6. https://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/home/pictures-of-the-future/digitalization-and-software/autonomous-systems-facts-and-forecasts.html
7. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/operations/our-insights/automation-robotics-and-the-factory-of-the-future
8. https://www.seagate.com/files/www-content/our-story/trends/files/Seagate-WP-DataAge2025-March-2017.pdf
9. https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm
10. https://www.wired-gov.net/wg/news.nsf/articles/Funding+for+84+million+for+artificial+intelligence+and+robotics+research+and+smart
+energy+innovation+announced+09112017081000?open
11. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-artificial-intelligence/beijing-to-build-2-billion-ai-research-park-xinhua-idUSKBN1ES0B8
12. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
13. https://toplink.weforum.org/knowledge/insight/a1Gb0000000pTDREA2/explore/summary
14. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180306005890/en/Global-Smart-Robot-Market-2018-2023---Opportunities
15. Results may vary given that the baskets were compared on different timelines
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