ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE

BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY

Current Status and Future

Scenarios of Residential Building
Energy Consumption in China

Nan Zhou
Environmental Energy
Technologies Division

Masaru Nishida
Department of Architecture
Kyushu Sangyo University

Weijun Gao
Department of Environment Space Design
The University of Kitakyushu

December 2008

This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No.
DE-AC02-05CH11231.
 Disclaimer

This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government.
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their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for
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California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect
those of the United States Government or any agency thereof, or The Regents of the University of
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Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is an equal opportunity

employer.

2
Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy
Consumption in China
Nan Zhou*, Masaru Nishida, and Weijun Gao

Abstract
China's rapid economic expansion has propelled it into the ranks of the largest energy
consuming nation in the world, with energy demand growth continuing at a pace commensurate
with its economic growth. Even though the rapid growth is largely attributable to heavy industry,
this in turn is driven by rapid urbanization process, by construction materials and equipment
produced for use in buildings. Residential energy is mostly used in urban areas, where rising
incomes have allowed acquisition of home appliances, as well as increased use of heating in
southern China. The urban population is expected to grow by 20 million every year, accompanied
by construction of 2 billion square meters of buildings every year through 2020. Thus residential
energy use is very likely to continue its very rapid growth. Understanding the underlying drivers
of this growth helps to identify the key areas to analyze energy efficiency potential, appropriate
policies to reduce energy use, as well as to understand future energy in the building sector.
This paper provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption
in China using data from a wide variety of sources and a modeling effort that relies on a very
detailed characterization of China’s energy demand. It assesses the current energy situation with
consideration of end use, intensity, and efficiency etc, and forecast the future outlook for the
critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity,
availability of energy services, technology improvement and energy intensities.

Keywords: China, residential building, modeling, energy intensity, energy efficiency, scenario

*This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

3
1. Introduction
China’s Medium and Long-Term Development plan drafted by the central government and
published in 2004 (NDRC,2005) laid out the broad guidelines of China’s development from 2000 to
2020, central to which is a quadrupling of GDP with only a doubling of energy consumption. This
goal is in essence to repeat the experience of the period from 1980 to 2000 when China did achieve
a quadrupling of GDP while keeping energy consumption growth to only half that rate. By 2005,
however, it became apparent that China had substantially exceeded its energy consumption growth
target for the first quarter of its 20-year development plan. Instead of maintaining the ratio of energy
growth to economic growth at 0.5, China experienced a sharp rise in energy intensity between 2001
and 2005, This loss of momentum in continued efficiency gains and intensity reduction called into
question China’s ability to keep energy consumption growth at just half the rate of economic growth
over the entire 20 year period and suggested that energy consumption in 2020 would be
significantly higher than forecast.

In an early study, we have undertaken a detailed analysis of recent energy intensity trends in
China, revealing the dominant role of rampant growth in heavy industries as the leading cause of
recent increases in China’s energy intensity (Lin, 2007). Even though the rapid growth is largely
attributable to heavy industry, this in turn is driven by rapid urbanization process, by construction
materials and equipment produced for use in buildings. Residential energy is mostly used in urban
areas, where rising incomes have allowed acquisition of home appliances, as well as increased use
of heating in southern China. The urban population is expected to grow by 20 million every year,
accompanied by construction of 2 billion square meters of buildings every year through 2020. Thus
residential energy use is very likely to continue its very rapid growth. Understanding the
underlying drivers of this growth helps to identify the key areas to analyze energy efficiency
potential, appropriate policies to reduce energy use, as well as to understand future energy in the
building sector.

As a sequence of the research published early on commercial energy use in China (Zhou,2008 ),
this paper provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in
China using data from a wide variety of sources and a modeling effort that relies on a very detailed
characterization of China’s energy demand. It assesses the current energy situation with
consideration of end use, intensity, and efficiency etc, and forecast the future outlook for the critical
period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability
of energy services, technology improvement and energy intensities.

The primarily analytical tool used in this study was a accounting framework of China’s energy
and economic structure, built using the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning)
modeling software.
2. Methodology
Residential energy demand is shaped by a variety of factors, including location (in both
geographic location and urban vs. rural) and climate. In developing countries such as China, it is
important to divide households into rural and urban locales due to the different energy consumption
patterns found in these locations. Within the locales, end uses were broken out into space heating,
air conditioning, appliances, cooking and water heating, lighting, and a residual category.

The end uses were further broken out by technologies; some appliances were broken out into
classes by level of service, associated with different levels of efficiency. Space heating varies by
climate type, so it is broken out by North, Transition and South zones. For all end uses, appropriate
devices and fuels were assigned, with saturation (rates of penetration) and energy efficiencies based
on statistical and survey data pertaining to the base year (2000) and future values based on analysis
of government plans, trends, and comparisons to other countries. Changes in energy demand in the
model are in part a function of driver variables, e.g., GDP, population, and household size, which
were determined exogenously and included in the model. Table 1shows the breakouts.

The equation for energy consumption in residential buildings can be summarized as follows (some
subscripts have been omitted for brevity of presentation):
Equation 1.
OPTION OPTION
Pm ,i    
E RB = ∑ ∑ × (H m , i × (SH m ,i )) +  ∑ pi , j , m × UECi , j , m  + Cm , i + Wm ,i + Lm + Rm 
i m Fm ,i   j  

where, in addition to the variables listed above:

m = locale type (urban, rural)
Pm,i = population in locale m in region i
Fm,i = number of persons per household (family) in locale m in region i,
Hm,i = average floor area per household in locale type m in region i in m2
SHi = space heating energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in kWh/m2-year,
j = type of appliance or end-use device,
pi,j = penetration of appliance or device j in region i in percent of households owning appliance
(values in excess of 100% would indicate more than one device per household on average),
UECi,j = energy intensity of appliance j in region i in MJ or kWh/year,
Ci = cooking energy use per household in region i in MJ /household-year,
Wi = water heating energy use per household in region i in MJ /household-year,
Lm = average lighting energy use per square meter in locale type i in kWh /square meter-year,
and
Rm = residual household energy use in locale type i in MJ /household-year.
Air conditioner and refrigerator end uses are detailed with stock turnover modeling, which
includes information on initial stocks by vintage, energy efficiencies by vintage (allowing explicit
modeling of the impacts of standards), efficiency degradation profiles, and lifetime or survival

5
profiles.

3. Current Residential Building Energy Consumption in China

3.1 Assumptions of the Drivers
Along with population size, key activity drivers of energy and demand in residential buildings are
rate of urbanization, number of households, per capita living area, persons per residence. In the
residential buildings sector, the level of energy demand is further influenced by household income,
number of households, and the size of households. Although GDP is not a direct driver in our
analysis, it is however used as reference to drive the increase of living area and saturation of
appliances.

The key drivers used in our disaggregating effort are presented in Table 2. The population in
2000 is 1.27 billion and 34.3% of them live in north China, 30% in the South, with the rest live in
transitional area. The regional split is used to estimate the energy demand in each region according
to climate differences differs and determine the level of the space heating and space cooling needs.
The number of people living in urban areas in China is 35.6% of the total, which is almost the level
of the world average in 1970 (U.N. 2005). Historically, the average household size has been
declining in most of the developing countries. China adopted one child policy in 1979 which
accelerated this decrease. Average household size declined from 5 persons in 1980 to 3.7 persons
in 2004, and in urban China it has almost reached the level of developed countries. Change in
household size is important because per capita energy use rises as household size decreases
(Schipper and Meyers, 1992). Another important factor is the dwelling area. Dwelling area in China
has increased significantly over the past two decades with an AGR of 4.3% while it is only about
0.6% in other countries. In 2000, the average dwelling area in China was 94 m2 per dwelling on
average, which has already reached many of the developed countries level in 1998(IEA, 2004).

3.2 Energy Use and Activity

We summarize the saturation and aggregated energy intensity on each of the main residential
energy end uses in Table 3. Heating equipment has been used throughout northern China, but only
30% of the urban area and 8% of the rural area in transition area has heating devices. In northern
urban areas, stoves and boilers are the major heating equipment with a share of 40% respectively,
followed by district heating of 22%, while in rural, biomass is the major heat source, with a share of
85%. In central China, electric heaters are the major heating with the share of 60% (Zhou, 2003).
Buildings in North and Transition urban area are supposed to meet the 2001 building codes. Space
heating intensity is 31.60 W/ m2-degree day in north and 17.5 W/ m2-degree day in transition region
in 2000. Rural China has much lower heating intensity because of the income gap with urban,
which is 2.34 W/ m2--degree day in north and 0.14 W/m2-degree day in transition region in 2000.

Cooking and water heating intensity in urban areas is 1252 kWh/household per year and slightly
more in rural areas. This is much lower than that of Japan in 2000 which was 4560 kWh/household
(IEEJ, 2003). In developed countries, the energy consumption of water heating is approximately 5
times as much as that of cooking. Water heating energy is 4.7 higher than cooking energy in the U.S.

6
and UK, and 4.22 times higher for Japan in 2000 (IEEJ, 2003). We assume that a similar ratio also
applies for China. LPG is a major energy source, while coal and electricity are also used in some
parts of China. Biomass is the major energy in rural area.

For lighting, an aggregated lighting intensity was used (Lin, 2003). The annual lighting energy
intensity for 7 major cities in China is 213 kWh/household in 1999. The share for different bulbs is
55% for incandescent, 39% for fluorescent and 6% for CFL (compact fluorescent).

Energy use in appliances is determined by ownership or saturation rate and the unit energy
consumption (UEC). Ownership rates often grow as a result of economic development. In 2000,
refrigerators, TV and clothes washers have already penetrated much of the households in urban
areas, while the rates in rural area are still much lower. The use of air conditioning is highly
dependent on the climate as well as the income level, therefore on average the ownership is only
about 30% in urban China, and very rare in rural. These numbers are much lower than those of
developed countries such as 121% for refrigerator and 217.4% for air conditioner in Japan in 2000
(IEEJ, 2003). In addition, change in the size and features of appliances plays a major role in
determining the UECs. Increases in average size are most significant for refrigerators. Table 3 also
shows that most of UECs of the appliances are higher those of Japan, indicating a large potential for
energy efficiency improvement.

3.3 Energy consumption by fuel and end-use

The adjusted residential energy consumption was 6.6 EJ in 2000, accounting for 16% of primary
energy without counting biomass fuels (Figure 2). It would be 30.6% if biomass is counted. This
figure is four percentage points higher than what is reported in China’s statistic, and the reason has
been addressed in an early article (Zhou, 2008). The energy is mostly used in urban area because the
rising income have allowed acquisition of home appliances, in addition to the existing central
heating system in northern China, which resulted in much larger share of electricity, coal and gas
use. Despite the larger share of land area and more population (64.4%) in rural China, the primary
energy use is only 1.84EJ, accounting for 28% of the total residential energy use.

Besides biomass, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for 79% of non-biomass energy
consumption in households (Figure 3and Figure 4). This includes the coal direct use for heating and
coal used to generate electricity used for appliances. Oil use (principally kerosene) is mostly seen in
rural lighting. Even though renewable energy has increased drastically, its share remains
insignificant (0.2%).

Most of the energy was used for space heating and water heating, accounting for 59% of the
residential energy consumption (Figure 1). The four major appliances including air conditioner,
refrigerator, clothes washer and TV use about 21% of household energy, followed by lighting at 9%
and cooking at 7%. Other use which accounts for residual appliances such as computers, printers,
etc.., uses only 4% of energy in 2000.

7
 While energy demand for space heating naturally varies with the climate; it is also determined by
the household income level and other factors. Many households in China do not have sufficient
heating due to poverty, and traditionally, there were no heating supply system in Southern China,
where the temperature can get very low in the winter. These all possibly contributed to the lower
share of space heating demand in China in 2000.

8
Table 1 End-Use Structure of the Residential Sector
End use Space heating Air Lighting Cooking and Appliances
conditioning water heating
Category North Transition Clothes Washer TV Refrigerator
Three sizes
Technolo Electric heater Ordinary Incandescen Electricity Vertical Black Ordinary
gies gas boiler efficient t Natural gas Horizontal TV efficient Highly
boiler Highly Florescent LPG Color efficient
stove efficient CFL Coal TV
district heating Coal gas
heat pump air Other
conditioner
Table 2 Macro Drivers in Residential Sector

27%

21%
Water Heating
Space heating
Other Uses
Lighting
7% Cooking
Appliances
9% 32%
4%

Figure 1 Residential Energy consumption by End-use

7%
3% Coal
1%
Renewables
10% Oil
0% Nuclear
Gas
Hydropower
79%

Figure 2 Residential Primay Energy Consumption by Fuel

Table 3 End Use Saturations and Intensities

Saturation, % End use intensity/UEC
Urban Rural Unit Urban Rural Japan notes
Space Heating
North 100 100 kWh/m^2-year 79 5.9
38.6 2000 average
Transition 30 8 kWh/m^2-year 26.6 0.24
2004 for
Refrigerator 80 12 kWh/year 460 460 380 250L-300L
Clothes washer 91 29
vertical 63 70 kWh/year 36 36 21.9
to 2004 for 4.2 kg
horizontal 27 30 kWh/year 61 61 40.2
TV
black 0 53 kWh/year 38 38
color 117 49 kWh/year 150 150 79 2004 for 29 inch

Air Conditioner 31 1 kWh/year 388 375 229 2000 average

Cooking and water
heating - - MJ/household-year 4506 4986 16420 2000 average
Other use - - kWh/year 280 100
16546 2000 average
lighting - - kWh/household 283 253
4. Future outlook for Energy Use in China
4.1 Activity and structural change
4.1.1 Population and Urbanization
Urban population in China increased between 1980 and 2000, growing from 193 million, or
19.5% of the total in 1970 to 451.8 million, or 35.6% of total in 2000 and is projected to increase to
55.8% in 2020 (UN, 2003). Total population will still grow, but at a much slower pace compared
with that of years pre 2000, at 0.5% per year. Increasing urbanization leads to the increased use of
commercial fuels, such as natural gas and LPG, for cooking instead of traditional biomass fuels.
Additional increases in energy use come with electrification, when appliances and lighting are
adopted.

4.1.2 Residential Living Area and Household Size

Globally, the size of the household tends to decline with increasing income and urbanization of
the population. In the case of China, the "one child policy" enforced such a decline particularly
rigorously. Average household size in China dropped from 5.2 persons in 1981 to 3.04 persons per
household in 2002 ( Figure 3 ). And this trend is expected to continue, with urban household size
decreasing from 3.13 persons in 2000 to 2.88 persons/household in 2020, the level of Japanese
household size today. It is also assumed that rural household size will be 3.9 persons/household in
2020.

In China, floor space per person increased from 9.9m2 to 19.8 m2 in urban and from 17.8m2 to
24.8 m2, from 1990 to 2000. In 2030, it is assumed to be equal to the current size in Japanese
households (30m2/capita) while rural residences will have 34.8 m2/capita).

The decline in household size leads to an increase in the total number of households in the region,
which, together with the increase in living area will multiply the contribution of energy demand
from households.

4.1.3 Residential Appliance Penetration Change

Ownership of the four major electric appliances-refrigerators, air conditioners, clothes washers
and TVs increased significantly from 1981 to 2000 except for black & white TVs. For example,
refrigerator ownership started at 1% in 1981 and increased to 80.1% in 2000 in urban China.
Increased income levels and decreasing appliance prices drive the growth of the ownership of
appliances, but will slow down when reaching a high saturation rate. In urban areas, color TV is
already universal; clothes washer ownership is approaching saturation; and refrigerator rates are
also growing. All of these will result in a much slower pace of growth of appliance ownership
through 2020, and therefore will have much smaller impact on household electricity consumption in
the future. Other factors such as air conditioning is an exception because it began to appear in early
90s, and is expected continue growing much faster. The level of energy required for urban
households in China in 2020 is assumed to be similar to that consumed in urban households in
Japan today. For appliance saturation, it is assumed that urban Chinese households will reach the
level of appliance ownership of Japan today by 2020(Figure 4).

10
4.1.4 End Use Intensities
Table 4 shows the values for major driver variables that were used to obtain an outcome to 2020.
Energy intensity for cooking, water heating and lighting will increase to accommodate the demand
for higher level of comfort. These intensities are still low compared to other countries, whereas
space heating stands out as an exception. Space heating in Northern urban China is predominately
supplied through district heating system that does not have meters or switches installed in
individual houses, resulting in imbalances and inability to control heat use, forcing consumers to
commonly open windows as the only means to regulate overheating. In addition, current building
codes is not stringent enough compared with other countries (Zhou, 2008), and the enforcement is
far from being adequate. In southern cities, the compliance rate in new buildings could be as low
as 8 to 10%. With the adoption of the heat metering system and the building envelope improvement,
we project the efficiency of the heating utilization in northern urban region will significantly
improve on both these fronts therefore lead to a decline in heating intensity. The transition area
(areas south of Yangzi river but north of the non-heating Southern China) and rural China on the
other hand, where defined as “non-heating zone”, historically has had no heating equipment, will
demand for more heating as their economy develops. This will result in growing intensity in space
heating.

4.2 Energy efficiency

The energy efficiency in our model is a combination of the efficiency and market shares of
different types of technologies. Our analysis reveals that the efficiency of the different technology
will be improved over time due to the revision of minimum energy efficiency standard as well as
technology development. Figure 5 illustrates an example of the efficiency change of space heating
technology. For instance, the average efficiency of the district heating will increase by 23 percent,
whereas a heat pump shows a 80 percent improvement potential.

At the same time, the market share of efficient and cleaner technology also rises according to the
current government policy (Figure 6). Technologies such as conventional coal boilers and district
heating will gradually shift to cleaner gas boilers and more efficient heat pumps. The projection is
based on assumption that both the efficiency and market shares of the different technologies used in
the Chinese residential sector will converge to their current level in Japan by 2020.

Because of their large share in household energy use, refrigerators and air conditioners were
modeled in some detail. They were broken out into efficiency classes (and also, in the case of
refrigerators, size classes) and simple stock turnover modeling was implemented. The case of
refrigerators in urban households provides an example of how the efficiency changes overtime.

Current data for actual refrigerators on the Chinese market and information on possible future
efficiency standards (China National Institute of Standardization, 2003) are used to determine
efficiency levels for these three efficiency classes in each of three typical refrigerator sizes (170
liters, 220 liters, and 270 liters). Average intensity levels for the three efficiency classes, which are
assumed to decline over the 2000 to 2030 period are shown in Error! Reference source not

11
found.Figure 7. Error! Reference source not found.Figure 8 shows that, over the period of the
scenario, the average size of new refrigerator is assume to rise. The rise of the size of refrigerators
therefore offsets the efficiency improvements in each size category, that the average unit energy
consumption of refrigerators shown in Table 4 would have more significant reduction otherwise.

4.3 Future Energy Outlook

Growth in residential and commercial energy consumption is driven both by an increase in total
floor space devoted to these uses and by the increase in appliance, lighting, and heating and cooling
usage in these areas (Error! Reference source not found.Figure 9, and Error! Reference source
not found.Figure 10). As urbanization increases, growing from the current 40% to 56% in 2020,
and household wealth continues to rise, demand in households for refrigerators, air conditioners,
lighting products, clothes washers, consumer electronics, space heating, water heating and other
functions will increase substantially. For example, the average efficiency of an “efficient” split-type
room air conditioner in urban households is expected to improve by nearly 40% by 2020 over the
2004 level, but owing to continued high rates of sales, total electricity consumption by “efficient”
room air conditioners is expected to more than triple, from 12 TWh in 2004 to 38 TWh in 2020.

By 2012, the total energy consumption of the 650 million urban residents will surpass that of the
728 million rural residents, even considering the 5.8 EJ consumed in rural households in the form of
biomass. In terms of just commercial energy, urban household consumption will be three times that
of rural areas. This high continued reliance on biomass for rural energy consumption shows the
potential challenge to the coal, oil, gas and electricity sectors of fully displacing biomass usage in
rural households.

As living standards rise, energy efficiency improvements in the building sector are likely to be
offset by the growing demand for higher levels of energy services: more space heating and cooling,
improved lighting, and larger appliances. These responses to higher living standards make it
difficult to reduce energy intensity in building sector. In 2020, residential building energy
consumption will reach 15.86 MJ from 6.6 MJ in 2000, with a 4.5% growth rate per year.

5. Conclusions
This paper provides a bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in China
using data from a variety of sources and a modeling effort that relies on a very detailed
characterization of China’s energy demand. The results can be summarized as the following:

The adjusted residential energy consumption was 6.6 EJ in 2000, accounting for 16% of primary
energy, in which, urban energy use accounts for 72% of the total residential energy and coal is the
dominant fuel. Most of the energy was used for space heating and water heating, accounting for
59% of the residential energy consumption. The four major appliances including air conditioner,
refrigerator, clothes washer and TV use about 21% of household energy, followed by lighting at 9%
and cooking at 7%.

12
 In 2020, residential building energy consumption will reach 15.86 MJ from 6.6 MJ in 2000, with a
4.5% growth rate per year. The growth is mainly driven by increasing urbanization together with
the increase in living area will multiply the contribution of energy demand from households. As
living standards rise, energy efficiency improvements in the building sector are likely to be offset
by the growing demand for higher levels of energy services. These responses to higher living
standards make it difficult to reduce energy intensity in building sector. Increased income levels and
decreasing appliance prices drive the growth of the ownership of appliances, but will slow down
when reach a high saturation rate. Average intensity levels are assumed to decline over the 2000 to
2020, whereas the average size of new refrigerator is assume to rise. By 2012, the total energy
consumption of the urban residents will surpass that of rural residents, even considering the 5.8 EJ
consumed in rural households in the form of biomass. This high continued reliance on biomass for
rural energy consumption shows the potential challenge to the coal, oil, gas and electricity sectors
of fully displacing biomass usage in rural households.

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14
 6.0 40
Rural Household Rural Living Area 180
35
5.0 160 Color TV
30 140
Person / Household

AC
4.0
120

m^2 / capita
25

Percentage
3.0 20 100 Clothe Washer
B&W TV
Urban Household 80
15
2.0 60 Refrigerator
10
40
1.0 Urban Living 5 20
Area
0.0 0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Figure 3 Floor area per Capita and Household Size Trend Figure 4 Urban Appliance Ownership

Table 4 Residential Energy Intensity by End-use Assumptions

Urban enduse Rural enduse Japanese 2004

intensity intensity most efficient
2000 2020 2000 2020 technology note
Space Heating
North kWh/m^2-year 79 64 5.85 30.6
Transition kWh/m^2-year 29.6 28.8 5 9.6

Cooking MJ/household-year 901.2 1421 997 1349

water heating MJ/household-year 3605 5685 3988 5396

Other use kWh/year 100 420 50 150
lighting kWh/m^2-year 3 4.5 1.5 2.2 4Wh/m^2 in 1998
Refrigerator UEC kWh/year 461.2 421.9 458.9 422.3 380 for 250L-300L
Clothes washer
vertical kWh/year 35.88 32.9 23.9 28.1
horizontal kWh/year 92.4 60.9 61.36 51.5 21.9 to 40.2 for 4.2 kg
TV
black& white kWh/year 38 63.8 38 63.8
color kWh/year 125 243 125 243 79 for 29 inch
47 kWh/month for
cooling,
116 kWh/month for for capacity of
Air Conditioner UEC kWh/year 387.6 245.6 375 248.9 heating 2.5 kW

200 100
Heat Pump 90
180
heating Technology Efficiency Index

80 Heat Pump Air

Conditioner
70
160 District
Percentage (%)

60 Heating
baseyear =100

140 50 Boiler

District Heating 40
Gas Boiler Gas Boiler
120 30
Coal Boiler 20 Electricity
100
10
Electricity
0
80
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Figure 5 Efficiency of the Space Heating Technologies Figure 6 Space Heating Technology Shift in Residential Building

National Energy Comprehensive Strategy and Policy of

15
 600
350
Ordinary Efficient Very Efficient
Uniti Energy Consumption (kWh/yr)

500 300

270
250
liters

million devices
400
200

300 150
220
liters
100
200
50 170
liters
100 0
2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Figure 7 Refrigerator UECs by Efficiency Class Figure 8 Refrigerator Stock by Size

140 20
Primary Energy Consumption (EJ)

Primary Energy Consumption (EJ)

120 nuclear
natural gas
100
hydro Cooking
Appliance
80
oil 10 lighting
60
Other Use
40 Space Heating
20 coal
Water Heating
0
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Note: Exclude biomass

Figure 9 Primary Energy Projection by Fuel Figure 1 Primary Energy Consumption by End-use)