Special Situations Value Portfolio
Special Situations Value Portfolio
Special Situations Value Portfolio
Investment operations whose results are dependent on happening or not-happening of one or more corporate events rather
than market events
Key variants
Price related - Securities bought at a discount to (expected) price guarantees by buyer in the form of de-listings, buy-backs, open
offers, etc.
Merger related - Shares can be created at a discount to current market price
Corporate restructurings - Value unlocking due to corporate restructuring, assets sales, demergers, business triggers, etc.
Key Advantages
Investment results of Special Situations opportunities are largely independent of market moves
The Universe
Why We Invested?
Chambal diversified into Shipping, Textiles and IT, which were loss making biz
Given its significant expansion plan (1.34mtpa Urea unit) we anticipated the company would need capital. Sources of capital
would be:
Raising Debt or Equity
Exiting non core businesses which had a 5% contribution to total EBIT and 30% of total capital employed
Since the company had already indicated its plan to raise equity, there was a high likelihood exiting non core businesses to make
up for equity contribution
This would help them achieve a leaner and pure agri input entity, resulting in ROCE rise from 6% to 12%.
We anticipated that higher ROCEs would impact valuations positively
Value Unlocking
Investors immediately re-rated the urea business thus leading to value unlocking
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company
Business
Chambal Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is one of the largest private sector fertilizer producers in India promoted by Zuari
Industries Limited
The Company has a vast marketing network comprising 15 regional offices, 2,000 dealers and 20,000 village level outlets.
Background
Kaya, incubated by Marico since 2013, is a pioneer in skin care (beauty and cure) in the country.
Marico decided to demerge Kaya. For 50 shares of Marico, 1 share of MaKE was issued on July1, 2014
MaKE became a tiny position in portfolios of large institutional investors. On listing these institutions sold their holdings,
irrespective of valuations
Stock was trading at Rs 290 Cr market cap, with over Rs 180 Cr cash
The company was PBT positive. It has nearly 100 clinics and 140 Doctors
With a fixed cost model - all incremental revenues would flow straight to the bottom line increasing the profits multifold
MaKE indicated its intent to grow the business with available capital and focus on the more profitable cure rather than beauty
Value Unlocking
With increased management focus, revs exhibited greater growth (over20%) than market expectn (15%)
As the absolute amount spent on R&D remained constant; operating leverage kicked in and margins started expanding
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company
Certain large funds which owned Polaris; started selling their stake in Intellect as it was a very small proportion of their overall
AUM.
As the company was continuously investing in R&D & Marketing, it reported a loss and market failed to look at future profit
potential
Background
We look at stocks not as pieces of paper but as fractional ownership in the business. If the business does well, we will do well
The Universe
Above is an illustration of how different screeners are used to filter a large universe and identify potential Value Opportunities
“Value investing is the discipline of buying stocks at a significant discount from their current underlying values. The
element of a bargain is the key to the process.†– Seth Klarman
Bottom Up
We believe that good quality companies will outperform the market irrespective of the sector they are in
Concentrated Portfolios
Downside Protection
We require a significant margin of safety when we buy a stock, so that even if things don’t work out as we expected, we don’t
lose money
Large market opportunity: Redevelopment projects of the government were gaining pace and medium term opportunity size was 6
times more than current order book
Competitive Advantage: Being an arm of the government NBCC would get a preferred place in government spending on projects
Good corporate governance: Transparency in the company was high as it was subjected to various government audits
Strong financial position: The company had a robust balance sheet, which made it stand apart from peers in this space. It had a
Return on Equity of 25%, considerable higher than peers
Attractive valuations: The market capitalization was Rs 1680 Cr. However the company had Rs 1330 Cr of Net Cash. Effectively
we were getting the company at Rs. 350 cr., while the Net Profit previous year was ~200 cr
Business
NBCC is in the business of Project Management Consultancy for Government and Government linked construction projects.
Government activity had ground to a halt toward the end of the previous government.
Both construction and real estate sectors were faced with severe headwinds. Further, players in these sectors were associated
with low transparency
The stock had underperformed the market by 21% in 2013
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company
Value Unlocking
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company
Value Unlocking
With parentage support from Virtusa, Polaris emerged as one of the top 5 preferred vendors for Citi and revenues from Citi started
growing on QoQ basis.
With revenue drag from Citi declining and rest of the business growing in early double digits, we anticipated that Polaris can grow
revenues at 7-10% CAGR for next 3 years.
Margins were also expected to improve from 10.5% to 13% led by 1)Operating leverage 2)Higher Fixed price contracts and
3)Higher margin Digital business.
The company has substantial cash on books (approx. 28% of market cap) which gives optionality from future growth perspective.
In the period FY18, the stock rallied over 160% as revenues improved and the markets started building in higher margins. The
announcement of probable delisting further lead to price increase
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company
Inspite of other business growing, Citi revenues had de-grown from $175 mn to $120 mn over FY14 to FY17 because of which stock
remained flat.
Background
The company operates in three main segments Skills and Career group SCG (34%), Corporate Learning Solutions CLS (50%) and
Schools Learning Solutions SLS (15%)
Company amongst the leading global players in CLS and largest domestic brand in SCG. Management decided to exit
government school biz in SLS and bring in a strategic partner here
Company holds 23.7% stake in sister company NIIT Tech
Value Unlocking
New Management enhanced focus on sales execution and large wins in CLS
Rationalized assets and enhanced usage of cloud for teaching to ensure greater resource utilization
Profitability positively impacted in Jun15 qrtr due to lower losses in SCG and robust growth in CLS
With valuations at 2x FY16E EV/E, risk reward highly favorable and significant room for upside
ROEs likely to cross 20% from approx. 10% levels, in the next 1-2 years
In the period April’15- Aug’15, the stock rallied over 100% as the markets realized true earning potential and hence long term ROE profile
Disclaimer: The above example is for illustrative purposes only. The Portfolio Manager may or may not invest in this company