ENSO Recent Evolution

ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
5 August 2019
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño is present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
western and central Pacific Ocean.
The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with
El Niño.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two,
with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere
fall and winter.*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)
Since early June 2018, near-to-above

average SSTs have been present across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
During February 2019, positive SST
anomalies strengthened across most of
the equatorial Pacific.
Over the last month, SSTs have become
near-to-below average in the eastern
Pacific, while remaining positive in the
western and central Pacific.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution
The latest weekly SST

departures are:
Niño 4 1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.5ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the central
Pacific Ocean, with the largest departures between 170ºE and 170ºW. Near-to-
below average SSTs were evident in the eastern Pacific.
30
26
Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the western and
central Pacific Ocean. SSTs were near-to-below average near Indonesia, the western
Indian Ocean, and in the eastern Pacific.
30
26
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, SSTs became

increasingly negative in the eastern
equatorial Pacific, while remaining above-
average around the Date Line.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, SST anomalies increased in the western equatorial Pacific,
while decreasing in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific
The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.
The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

anomalies (above average) and thermocline
slope index (below average) reflect El Niño.
The monthly thermocline slope index represents the

difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies
Positive subsurface temperature anomalies have been present through most of the
period. Anomalies decreased to near zero in late April before returning to positive
anomalies in late May. Since June, anomalies have mostly been slightly positive.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
In the last two months, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies have weakened across the
Pacific, but remain in the central Pacific.
Most recent pentad analysis
Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have

expanded in the eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection
and precipitation) were evident around Indonesia.
Low-level (850-hPa) cross-equatorial wind

anomalies were evident in the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean.
Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly wind anomalies

were present across the east-central tropical
Pacific, while cross-equatorial anomalies were
evident over the eastern Pacific.
Intraseasonal Variability
Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
Related to this activity:

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
In early August, October, November 2018 and in
January-March 2019, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies increased, partly due to
downwelling Kelvin waves.
During May 2019, an upwelling Kelvin wave
contributed to the reduction of positive
subsurface anomalies and emergence of negative
anomalies around 110º-90ºW.
During May and July, downwelling Kelvin waves
helped to increase the positive subsurface
anomalies across the central and east-central
Pacific. However, negative subsurface anomalies
remained over the eastern Pacific.
Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have

alternating warm and cold phases. The warm
phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-
welling and warming occur in the leading
portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and
cooling occur in the trailing portion.
Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian Oscillation
(MJO) has contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
During the period, westerly wind
anomalies have periodically emerged
over the western or central equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
In the last week, low-level winds were
near-average over most of the equatorial
Pacific Ocean.
Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Eastward propagation of anomalies has,
at times, been evident throughout the
period.
From early March to mid May 2019,

anomalous upper-level divergence (green
shading) persisted near the Date Line.
In the last week, anomalous upper-level

divergence was observed over Indonesia
and the central Pacific, while anomalous
upper-level convergence (brown shading)
was evident over the eastern Pacific.
Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

Favorable for precipitation (green shading)
Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies
From mid-December 2018 to mid-June

2019, negative OLR anomalies largely
persisted near the Date Line.
Since early February 2019, positive OLR
anomalies have, at times, been evident
over Indonesia.
In the last week, convection was
suppressed near Indonesia and the
eastern Indian Ocean.
Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)
It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950
The most recent ONI value

(May – July 2019) is +0.5ºC.
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6
2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6
2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6
2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0
2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2
2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6
2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6
2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8
2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 11 July 2019
ENSO-neutral is favored to emerge in the next season and to then continue

through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2019-20.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook
The average of the dynamical

models (thick red line) predicts
ENSO-neutral during the
Northern Hemisphere fall and
into the winter 2019-20.
The average of the statistical

models (thick green line)
predicts a weak El Niño to
continue into the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2019-20.
Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 19 July 2019).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 5 August 2019
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a return to ENSO-
neutral, which continues into winter 2019-20.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
During early to mid June, anomalous ridging (and
above-average temperatures) was observed over
the western U.S., while anomalous troughing
(and near-to-below average temperature) were
evident over parts of the central and eastern U.S.
During the last half of June and first half of July,

below average heights and temperatures were
most evident over the western contiguous U.S,
while above average heights and temperatures
were evident over the eastern U.S.
Since mid July, the pattern has been mostly near

average across the contiguous U.S. with some
anomalous troughing (and slightly below-average
temperatures) over the east-central U.S.
1 of 3
Days


2 of 3
Days


3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days
End Date: 3 August 2019
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days
End Date: 3 August 2019
Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)
2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
August-October 2019
The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.
Precipitation Temperature
Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
El Niño is present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the
western and central Pacific Ocean.
The pattern of anomalous convection and winds are generally consistent with
El Niño.
A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two,
with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere
fall and winter.*
* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

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ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Since early June 2018, near-to-above

The latest weekly SST

During the last four weeks, SSTs became

The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

The monthly thermocline slope index represents the

Most recent pentad analysis

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have

Low-level (850-hPa) cross-equatorial wind

Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly wind anomalies

Related to this activity:

Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have

Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

From early March to mid May 2019,

In the last week, anomalous upper-level

Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

From mid-December 2018 to mid-June

Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

The most recent ONI value

2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5

ENSO-neutral is favored to emerge in the next season and to then continue

The average of the dynamical

The average of the statistical

Figure provided by the International Research

During the last half of June and first half of July,

Since mid July, the pattern has been mostly near

During the last half of June and first half of July,

Since mid July, the pattern has been mostly near

During the last half of June and first half of July,

Since mid July, the pattern has been mostly near

End Date: 3 August 2019

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

End Date: 3 August 2019

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

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