2013 ELECTIONS: TYRANNY OF NUMBERS-FACT OR MYTH?

By Stan Oyunga (​[email protected]​)

INTRODUCTION

The 2013 General Election is still being referred to a two horse

race, between CORD and the Jubilee Coalitions, the latter’s
Presidential candidate won with 6.1 million votes against the
former’s with 5.3 million votes.

The difference between Uhuru Kenyatta (6,173,433) and Raila

Odinga (5,340,546) was 832,887 which lent credence to the
infamous “tyranny of numbers” debate on social media.

The “tyranny of numbers” debate seemed to have correctly

predicted that the Jubilee Coalition had already “won” the 2013
General Elections by 18​th​ December, 2012, when the voter
registration exercise ended. Areas perceived to be strongholds of
Jubilee had registered significantly more voters than those
perceived to be CORD strongholds. Another factor that gave
Jubilee victory was the voter turn-out, which was higher in the
latter’s strongholds then in the CORD strongholds.

CORD was its own worst enemy by not ensuring most potential
voters in its strongholds were registered as voters before 18​th
December, 2012 and that they also turned up to vote. But it will be
noted from this analysis that CORD failed on both counts.

With the 2017 General Elections only four years away, the
question is: has CORD learnt a lesson and the “tyranny of
numbers” can be reversed in its favour? Or will Jubilee continue
with its organizational skill to ensure it wins a second term in
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2017?

VOTER REGISTRATION FACTOR

Ever since the 1992 Presidential Elections, Kenyans have always

voted on ethnic group lines with the exception of the 2002
Presidential Elections when the top two candidates were from the
same ethnic group (Mwai Kibaki of NARC defeated Uhuru
Kenyatta of Kanu with 62% of the national vote).

The results of any Presidential Election will be determined by the

votes of the top seven Ethnic groups: Kikuyu (6.2m), Luyha
(5.3m), Kalenjin (4.9m), Luo (4m), Kamba (3.8m), Kisii (2.2m)
and Meru (1.6m), who account for 75% (28.7 million) of Kenya’s
population of 38 million as per the 2009 census.

Although the Somali ethnic group was ranked 6​th​ in population in

the 2009 census with 2.3 million, this figure has been disputed as
attested by North Eastern Region having only registered 347,457
voters in 2012, which is only 15% of the Region’s population. The
average voter registration vis-à-vis the regional population is 40%.

Using the Kenya Election Database Version 1.0, Kenya’s first and
only election data analysis software, it is possible to confirm the
potential voters/approx registered voters per ethnic group and per
Coalition strongholds based on the 2009 census and 2012 voter
registration.

This is the first time that Kenya’s voters are being are categorised
by ethnic group since the Independent Election and Boundaries
Commission (IEBC) does not require voters to state their ethnic
group. The software allocates constituencies and counties a main
ethnic group which must comprise of 65% of the population of the
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constituency/county. Where the population is a mixture of ethnic
groups then “cosmopolitan” is shown, e.g. Nairobi and Mombasa.

KEN
YA
ETH
NIC
GR
OUP
VOT
ER
POT
ENT
IAL-
2009
CEN
SUS

TAB
LE
A:
JUB
ILEE
COA
LITI
ON
RAN ETHNIC GROUP POTENTIAL VOTERS APPROX REG VOTERS VARIANCE
K
1 KIKUYU 2,649,030 2,766,644 -117,614
2 KALENJIN 1,986,931 1,560,048 426,883
3 MERU 663,243 483,617 179,626
4 EMBU 129,637 140,376 -10,739
5 THARAKA 70,362 155,823 -85,461
6 MBEERE 67,262 86,603 -19,341
TOTALS 5,566,465 5,193,111 373,354

TAB
LE
3
B:
COR
D
COA
LITI
ON
RAN ETHNIC GROUP POTENTIAL VOTERS APPROX REG VOTERS VARIANCE
K
1 LUHYA 2,135,466 1,533,130 602,336
2 LUO/BASUBA 1,673,484 1,257,849 415,635
3 KAMBA 1,557,263 1,069,529 487,734
4 KISII 882,268 634,109 248,159
5 MIJI KENDA 784,230 514,425 269,805
6 TESO 135,533 78,814 56,719
7 TAITA 109,408 88,077 21,331
TOTALS 7,277,652 5,175,933 2,101,719

TAB
LE
C:
MIX
ED
SUP
POR
T
(50/
50)
RAN ETHNIC GROUP POTENTIAL VOTERS APPROX REG VOTERS VARIANCE
K
1 SOMALI 400,000 347,457 52,543
2 TURKANA 395,437 120,345 275,092
3 MAASAI 336,649 593,152 -256,503
5 KURIA 104,160 62,798 41,362
6 SAMBURU 94,872 56,662 38,210
7 BORAN 64,560 73,615 -9,055
8 OTHERS 3,000,000 2,500,000 500,000
TOTALS 4,395,678 3,754,029 641,649

From Table A, the Jubilee Coalition draws the majority of its

support from the Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Meru, Embu, Tharaka and
Mbeere, whose potential voters number 5,566,465 and 2012
registered voters were approximately 5,193,111.

From Table B, CORD draws the majority of its support from the
Luhya, Luo/Basuba, Kamba, Kisii, Miji Kenda, Teso and Taita
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whose potential voters number 7,277,652 and 2012 registered
voters were approximately 5,175,933.

Table A and B clearly shows that while Jubilee managed to

register 5.1 million (93%) out of their 5.5 million potential voters
in their strongholds, CORD managed to register only 5.1 million
(71%) out of 7.2 million potential voters.

Table C shows ethnic groups where support for both Coalitions

was mixed or fifty/fifty with total potential voters at 4.3 million
and registered voters approximately 3.7 million.

Table D (below) shows Kenya summary of potential and registered

voters for Jubilee, Cord and Mixed (50/50) with potential voters at
17.2 million voters which is very close to the IEBC target of 18
million (which was actually overstated by 1 million due North
Eastern region population mystery). Registered voters total 14.1
million which is very close to the actual IEBC total of 14.3 million
registered in December, 2012.

T
A
B
L
E
D
:
S
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M
M
A
R
Y
COALITION POTENTIAL VOTERS APPROX REG VARIANCE
VOTERS
JUBILEE 5,566,465 5,193,111 373,354

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 CORD 7,277,652 5,175,933 2,101,719
MIXED SUPPORT 4,395,678 3,754,029 641,649
TOTALS 17,239,795 14,123,073 3,116,722

Table E (below) shows summary of registered voters as per

Coalition strongholds plus 50% of mixed ethnic groups, hence
giving Jubilee a total of ​7,070,126​ voters and CORD a total of
7,052,948​ which was almost equal. Since the Amani coalition of
Musalia Mudavadi took part of the Luhya ethnic group in the 2013
Presidential Elections, the CORD total was reduced by over
400,000 to be ​6.6 million​. The 5 other minor Presidential
candidates only accounted for just over 200,000 votes, but mainly
from protest and fringe voters.

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O
X
R
E
G
V
O
T
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S
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D
E
C
2
0
1
2
JUBILEE CORD TOTALS VARIANCE
APPROX REG VOTERS 5,193,111 5,175,933 10,369,044 17,178
PLUS 50% MIXED 1,877,015 1,877,015 3,754,029 0
TOTALS 7,070,126 7,052,948 14,123,073 17,178
ACTUAL VOTES-2013 6,173,433 5,340,546 11,513,979 832,887

Hence before the 4​th​ March 2013 Presidential Elections, Jubilee

had 7 million registered voters compared with CORD with 6.6
million registered voters, hence the “tyranny of numbers”. But the
difference between Jubilee and CORD was only 400,000 caused by
the “Mudavadi” factor. Out of the 12.2 million voters who actually
voted, 6.1 million voted for Jubilee, 5.3 million for CORD and
832,887 for other candidates.

Table F (below) clearly shows that CORD had a voter potential of

9.4 million​ in its strongholds while Jubilee had ​7.7 million​, hence
CORD failed to register ​1.7 million potential voters​, which would
have reversed the “tyranny of numbers” and given them victory in
the 2013 Presidential elections.

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T
A
B
L
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F
:
C
O
A
L
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T
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N
T
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S
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P
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2
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9
C

8
E
N
S
U
S
JUBILEE CORD TOTALS VARIANCE
POTENTIAL VOTERS 5,566,465 7,277,652 12,844,117 -1,711,187
PLUS 50% MIXED 2,197,839 2,197,839 4,395,678 0
TOTALS 7,764,304 9,475,491 17,239,795 -1,711,187

NOT VOTED FACTOR

In the 2013 General Elections, a total of ​2,022,196​ registered

voters did not turn-up to vote, representing 14 % of all registered
voters. If only 50 % of “no show voters” had turned up then the
difference between the Jubilee and Cord candidates would have
been narrower, hence forcing a run-off.

The 10 counties with the most “no show” voters (having half of the
2 million) in the 2013 elections were:-

1. Nairobi-318,138-Fifty/Fifty
2. Mombasa-136,429-CORD
3. Kilifi-117,958-CORD
4. Kakamega-92,682-CORD/Amani
5. Kiambu-80,093-Jubilee
6. Nakuru-79,001-Jubilee
7. Machakos-73,018-CORD
8. Kisii-64,283-CORD
9. Bungoma-59,457-CORD
10. Meru-57,446-Jubilee

It can be noted from above that out of the 10 counties with most
“no show” voters, 6 were in CORD strongholds (over 540,000) and
only 3 in Jubilee strongholds (over 200,000) with Nairobi being a

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fifty/fifty county (over 300,000). Since most “no show voters”
were in counties considered CORD strongholds, it is very unlikely
that the outcome of the 2013 Presidential elections would have
changed even if there was a run-off.

Table G (below) gives the Voter Registration and “Not Voted”

breakdown per County, the main Ethnic group and Coalition
stronghold or mixed counties.

TABLE G: NOT
VOTED BY
COUNTY
COUNTY REGION REG NOT ETHNIC GRP COALITION
VOTERS VOTED
MOMBASA COAST 412,602 136,429 COSMOPOLIT CORD
AN
KWALE COAST 173,447 48,842 DIGO CORD
KILIFI COAST 340,948 117,958 GIRIAMA CORD
TANA RIVER COAST 73,037 14,865 POKOMO CORD
LAMU COAST 51,830 8,175 BAJUN MIXED
TAITA-TAVETA COAST 112,219 21,506 TAITA CORD
REGIONAL 1,164,083 347,775
TOTALS
GARISSA NORTH-EASTE 116,166 23,302 SOMALI MIXED
RN
WAJIR NORTH-EASTE 110,286 17,852 SOMALI MIXED
RN
MANDERA NORTH-EASTE 121,005 19,151 SOMALI JUBILEE
RN
REGIONAL 347,457 60,305
TOTALS
MARSABET EASTERN 104,408 14,733 BORAN MIXED
ISIOLO EASTERN 52,617 6,816 BORAN MIXED
MERU EASTERN 483,517 57,446 MERU JUBILEE
THARAKA-NTHI EASTERN 155,823 16,503 THARAKA JUBILEE
EMBU EASTERN 226,989 27,641 EMBU JUBILEE
KITUI EASTERN 323,624 48,569 KAMBA CORD
MACHAKOS EASTERN 445,819 73,018 KAMBA CORD
MAKUENI EASTERN 300,086 45,998 KAMBA CORD
REGIONAL 2,092,883 290,724
TOTALS
NYANDARUA CENTRAL 252,889 16,237 KIKUYU JUBILEE
NYERI CENTRAL 357,105 25,356 KIKUYU JUBILEE
KIRINYAGA CENTRAL 262,715 23,742 KIKUYU JUBILEE
MURANGA CENTRAL 457,052 29,206 KIKUYU JUBILEE
KIAMBU CENTRAL 860,716 80,093 KIKUYU JUBILEE
REGIONAL 2,190,477 174,634

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TOTALS
TURKANA RIFT VALLEY 120,345 31,601 TURKANA CORD
WEST POKOT RIFT VALLEY 107,894 12,203 POKOT JUBILEE
SAMBURU RIFT VALLEY 56,662 7,165 SAMBURU MIXED
TRANS NZOIA RIFT VALLEY 231,352 44,693 COSMOPOLIT MIXED
AN
UASIN GISHU RIFT VALLEY 318,717 45,890 KALENJIN JUBILEE
ELGEYO RIFT VALLEY 134,290 11,094 KALENJIN JUBILEE
MARAKWET
NANDI RIFT VALLEY 254,788 27,012 KALENJIN JUBILEE
BARINGO RIFT VALLEY 171,013 16,159 KALENJIN JUBILEE
LAIKIPIA RIFT VALLEY 170,267 17,037 KIKUYU JUBILEE
NAKURU RIFT VALLEY 695,879 79,001 COSMOPOLIT JUBILEE
AN
NAROK RIFT VALLEY 253,086 26,833 MAASAI MIXED
KAJIADO RIFT VALLEY 315,053 39,161 MAASAI MIXED
KERICHO RIFT VALLEY 290,102 27,556 KALENJIN JUBILEE
BOMET RIFT VALLEY 254,405 25,243 KALENJIN JUBILEE
REGIONAL 3,373,853 410,648
TOTALS
KAKAMEGA WESTERN 568,813 92,681 LUYHA CORD
VIHIGA WESTERN 202,456 35,249 LUHYA MIXED
BUNGOMA WESTERN 411,981 59,457 LUHYA CORD
BUSIA WESTERN 251,737 30,377 LUHYA CORD
REGIONAL 1,434,987 217,764
TOTALS
SIAYA NYANZA 312,513 23,472 LUO CORD
KISUMU NYANZA 388,729 36,851 LUO CORD
HOMA BAY NYANZA 331,698 19,106 LUO CORD
MIGORI NYANZA 287,702 22,647 LUO CORD
KISII NYANZA 414,493 64,283 KISII CORD
NYAMIRA NYANZA 219,616 35,849 KISII CORD
REGIONAL 1,954,751 202,208
TOTALS
NAIROBI NAIROBI 1,778,903 318,138 COSMOPOLIT MIXED
AN
REGIONAL 1,778,903 318,138
TOTALS
GRAND 14,337,39 2,022,196
TOTALS 4

Table H below shows that out of the 2 million voters who did not
vote in the 2013 Presidential Elections, ​1.1 million​ were from
Regions that were CORD strongholds, (Coast, Western, Nyanza
and mixed support-North Eastern, Eastern and Nairobi); while
900,000 came from Jubilee strongholds, (Central, Rift Valley, and
mixed support,-North Eastern, Eastern and Nairobi). The
difference is only 200,000 but when you check the “Not Voted”
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percentage, the Coast region (CORD) had the highest with 29.88%
and while Central region (Jubilee) had the lowest with 7.97%.

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N
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M
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Y

REGION 2012 REG NOT VOTED

VOTERS

COAST 1,164,083 347,775

NORTH 347,457 60,305

EASTERN

EASTERN 2,092,883 290,724

CENTRAL 2,190,477 174,634

RIFT VALLEY 3,373,853 410,648

WESTERN 1,434,987 217,764

NYANZA 1,954,751 202,208

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 NAIROBI 1,778,903 318,138

GRAND 14,337,394 2,022,196

TOTALS

NOT VOTED
STRONGHOLDS
SUMMARY

CORD 767,747

JUBILEE 585,282

MIXED (50/50) 669,167

GRAND TOTAL 2,022,196

CORD NOT JUBILEE

VOTED NOT VOTED
SUMMARY SUMMARY

CORD 767,747

50% MIXED 334,835

TOTAL 1,102,582

CONCLUSION

It can be noted from Table H that the

“no show voters” were from both
Coalition strongholds and even if half of
the “no show voters” had turned up and
voted, the outcome of the 2013
Presidential Elections would not have

13
changed, but a run-off may have been
necessary.

CORD still has a chance of reversing

the infamous “tryranny of numbers” by
ensuring that most its 9.4 million
potential voters in its strongholds and
mixed support areas are registered well
before the August, 2017 General
Elections. The voting population is
expected to grow with those who were
15 years old or above in 2013,
becoming eligible to register as voters.
It is estimated that about 22 million
Kenyans will be eligible to register
(40% of estimated adult population) and
vote in 2017, out of which about 12
million will be from CORD strongholds
and 10 million from Jubilee strongholds.

Jubilee will need to make in-roads in

perceived CORD strongholds such as
Coast and Western regions if they hope
to win re-election.

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