GIS-Based Community

Risk Assessment
Tools for wildfire prediction and mitigation
By Ahmed Abukhater, Esri Global Industry Manager for Community Development

 The analysis trilogy: factors used for the analysis

Wildfires are one of the most notoriously de-
Analysis Trilogy
structive and devastating natural hazards in
the United States.
Planners and policy makers need tools Temporal indicators Spatial indicators Human indicators
that enable them to assign land uses and
identify community assets to avoid wildfire Potential for Ignition
Potential for
Potential Ramification
Combustibility/Propagation
hazards in the communities most suscepti-
ble to natural and man-made disasters. GIS 1. Current & Historical 1. Exhisting Fuel & 1. Exhisting Data on
can provide these effective planning tools Climate Data Topographic Data Structure/Infrastructure
and insights to prepare for natural and man- Precipitation/drought events Fuel types Population centers
Lightning strikes Slope, Elevations, Aspect Urban interface
made disasters and mitigate their impact.
Wind speed & direction Critical infrastructure
Both policy makers and the community at Evacuation potential

large can plan for pre- and postdisaster re- 2. Current & Historical Fire 2. Fire Suppression
Occurrences Data Capability
sponse and mitigation efforts.
Initial dispatch locations
Numerous wildfire methodologies pri- Spatial morphology
marily focus on predicting where fire is most 3. Current & Historical
Emergency Calls Data Emergency response time
likely to occur based on historic data and Fire containment
spatial characteristics of the environment. Dry hydrants

What’s missing is knowledge of the impact of

wildfire on vulnerable populations and criti-
380 Total Points: 38% 420 Total Points: 42% 200 Total Points: 20%
cal infrastructure. To that end, predicting
fire hazards by modeling areas that are most Improving emergency response in areas infrastructure assets. In particular, this
vulnerable to fire and measuring the impact Thesesusceptible
most are identifiedto
in collaboration with local community
frequent fires—based studyand AFD
conducted spatial modeling and rep-
on the community’s assets and human and on data interpolation and prior delineation resentation of wildfire hazard analysis and
physical resources is both important and of these areas—can help save lives and pre- spatiotemporal interpolation of communi-
warranted to mitigate wildfire hazards and cious resources. Given the importance of ties at risk; developed a standardized plan-
associated costs and fatalities. forest-urban interface fire prediction and ning support system (PSS) for methodology
mitigation, this article describes how to of GIS-based regional molding of Wildfire
conduct a community risk assessment from Susceptibility Index (WFSI) for planning
a planning point of view and proposes a GIS- and policy making; identified areas at risk
based multiple-criteria evaluation (MCE) and vulnerable communities; and provided
framework for analyzing, predicting, and ul- better assessment tools and capabilities for
Burnet
Williamson timately mitigating the impact of wildfires. future land-use planning and policy making.
Texas
Travis
The study area was Travis County, Texas.
Blanco
Bastrop
Assessing Wildfire Impact With nearly a million residents, the county
Hays

Caldwell
This article references a study for develop- encompasses the cities of Austin, Jonestown,
ing a systematic methodology for assess- and Round Rock. It includes major popula-
ment of wildfire impact on a community’s tion, business, and educational hubs such as
 The study area was Travis County, Texas. critical assets, including human capital and the University of Texas at Austin.

24 au  Spring 2011  esri.com

 Features

 A conceptual model for the Wildfire Susceptibility Index (WFSI) methodology

Geospatial Methods and Wildfire Susceptibility Index (WFSI)

Analyses
This analysis is composed of three key indi- Fire Behavior/Spatial
Fire Propensity Sensitive Areas Contingency
cators: temporal, spatial, and human. These Index Diffusion Index Valuation Index
represent the potential for ignition, fire com-
bustibility, and propagation (or how fast the Risk Analysis Hazard Analysis Potential Ramification

fire spreads) and possible ramifications for 1. Fire Combustibility

Fire Ignition Risk 1. Human Capital
the community. The analysis captures not and Propagation
only the risk and probability of wildfires Meteorological and Population density
Ignition Risk Hydrogeomorphological
but also the magnitude of impact on the Propensity Index (MHI)
Census data
community. Lightning strikes Precipitation
historical occurrences
The potential for ignition is measured by (long/lat)
Propensity of
human casualty
Wind speed
the temporal indicators including current & direction
Lightning density
and historical climate data about precipita- Canopy Crown fire 2. Critical Infrastructure
cover potential
tion, drought events, lightning strikes, wind Fire historical
occurrences
speed and direction, current and historical Fire density/
(long/lat)
Vegetative
Structural damage and
power outage probability
coverage
fire occurrence data, and current and his- probability
Emergency calls
torical emergency calls data. Transportation Vegetation / Forest historical occurrences
Initiated fire risk surface fuels density (long/lat)
The potential for fire combustibility and
propagation is measured by a set of spatial Major roads Ignition risk Elevation/ Structural damage density
density propensity Ridge line
indicators including existing fuel and topo- DEM Terrain
Stops Wildland Urban
analysis
graphic data (such as fuel types, slope, eleva- Transportation network Current Interface (WUI)
land use Zones
tion, and aspect) and fire suppression capa- Aspect

bility (such as initial dispatch locations and Proximity to urban

Weight criteria Collaboration/ 2. Fire Suppression interface
spatial morphology data about emergency and overlay input from AFD Capability
response time, fire containment, and dry Initial dispatch Density
hydrants). Community Risk Analysis locations density
Parks Facilities
The potential ramifications for the com- Initial dispatch
Historical
locations Schools
Spatio-temporal landmarks
munity are measured by existing data on interpolation of
Emergency
Major road response time Hospitals
Urbanized
population centers, urban interface, critical Communities at Risk network areas
(3D Modeling + Time)
infrastructure, and evacuation potential. Proximity
Proximity

Rivers and
streams
A community survey was conducted, and Fire
containment 3. Evacuation Potential
several meetings with the local community Major roads
and highways
were held to collaboratively determine the Weighing criteria
and overlay
Collaboration/
input from AFD
Water bodies
importance of each of these indicators in the (water withdrawal) Density
Bridges
Dry
analysis. The relative importance for these Major road hydrants Proximity
Road access
network
factors was represented by the weights as-
signed to them.
This analysis trilogy translates into a

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 conceptual diagram that includes risk analy-
sis, hazard analysis, and potential ramifica-
tions to create a fire propensity index, fire
behavior/spatial diffusion index, and sensi-
Risk Contributing Derivative Trigger Valuation Response tive areas contingency valuation index. Each
Strategy
Statement Factors Data Event Methodology of these three pillars is inclusive of several
factors and layers.
Elevation DEM Fire Very low (1): 93-170m - Very low
- Fire containment: creating natural
Wildfire can cause a blazing inferno
propagation Low (2): 170-230m
Moderate (3): 230-290m and artificial fire breaks (such as
rivers and highways)
with a potential of speed ranging from
High (4): 290-350m
Very high (5): 350-483m - Dumping water from the sky 30 to 40 miles per hour, which causes the
fire to spread rapidly, creating “firenado”
Slope DEM Fire Very low (1): 0-5% potential. Weather conditions, surface fuel,
irruption Low (2): 5-15%
Moderate (3): 15-30% and topography, among other factors, can
High (4): 30-45%
Very high (5): 45-133% contribute to this situation.
Firenado
potential For Travis County, Texas, weather condi-
Aspect
(wind direction)
DEM Fire Very low (1): N, flat tions were characterized as a severe drought
propagation Low (2): NE, NW
Moderate (3): E, W pattern. The area has experienced drought
High (4): SE, SW
Very high (5): S for the past 10 years. The area has low pre-
Improving structural fire safety: cipitation and currently receives only 50 to
Fuel Vegetative - Using fire resistant materials
coverage
Fire
irruption
Very low (1):FBPS 97, 98, 99
Low (2): FBPS 96 - Exits clearly marked
60 percent of its normal precipitation.
Moderate (3): FBPS 10, 11, 12
High (4): FBPS 6, 7, 8, and 9
- Entrances ate not blocked by
any flammable materials
With regard to surface fuel, Travis County
Very high (5): FBPS 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 - Access for a large fire truck
- Reducing vegetation
has high forest density and canopy cover
encroachment around buildings with crown fire potential. West Austin is
Early warning system:
densely covered with trees and brush, highly
Very low (1): < 5 min
Fire spread Response time Road access
& damage and initial
Fire
irruption
Low (2): 5-8 min - Local officials issue burn bans
- Issuance of red flag warnings
flammable because of the severe drought
Moderate (3): 8-10 min
dispatch
locations
High (4): 10-15 min - Reverse 911 calls for residents conditions.
Very high (5): > 15 min (alerting to evacuate)
West Austin also has steeply sloping
hills and canyons, and high wind speed
 Examples of contributing factors and elevation are also factors. Other fac-
 GIS layers used for the analysis tors to consider include high fire ignition
risk related to transportation and historic
wildfire occurrences and the area’s high
population density. The area’s poor egress

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 Features

is related to the transportation network

and urban morphology. The area also has
low fire suppression capacity owing to the Process and Decision Workflow (GIS Model Workflow Chart)
locations and levels of coverage provided by
nearby fire departments.
Each factor was represented by a separate
layer that was created, extracted, or derived
from other data sources or a combination of
sources. The table on page 26 shows a few
examples of these contributing factors asso-
ciated with a risk statement, derivative data,
contributing factors, trigger event, valuation
methodology (how these factors are catego-
rized in the analysis), and response strategy.

Analysis Results
GIS was used to create and extract data
layers to represent each factor listed in the
conceptual diagram and conduct spatial
analysis to derive density, propensity, and
proximity maps. These maps were consoli-
dated and combined into the six category
maps, which were juxtaposed and overlaid
(after assigning weights reflecting the com-
munity’s priorities) to produce the final map
representing the WFSI.
 GIS analysis results, the Wildfire Susceptibility Index
The final map shows areas threatened by
extreme and very high potential for wildfire
breakouts in red and orange. Areas in north Knowing where fire incidence is most For More Information
Travis County and west Austin are identi- likely will help emergency services respond Ahmed Abukhater, PhD, GISP
fied as high-risk areas because of the cur- in a timely manner to mitigate the impact Esri Global Industry Manager for
rent drought conditions, dense forest and of fire. Knowing which populations are at Community Development
canopy cover, flammable vegetation, and risk, communities can determine where [email protected]
steep slopes. In addition, these area have to allocate resources most effectively to
concentrations of population and critical save money and human lives. Planners can About the Author
infrastructure combined with relative lack also use this analysis to inform future land Dr. Ahmed Abukhater leads Esri’s global
of resources and fire suppression capacity. use policies and guide decisions regarding marketing strategies in planning and eco-
Representing this information in a three- future growth areas. The results can also be nomic development. In his role as Esri’s
dimensional diagram helps furnish a better disseminated to inform future land-use suit- community development industry manager,
understanding of the level of risk and magni- ability analysis and conflict maps to avoid he works to advance the industry agenda
tude of impact on communities affected by future expansion in those areas identified as through his vision of enterprise GIS, smart
potential wildfire. high-risk areas for wildfire hazard. This spa- growth, business attraction, and economic
tial knowledge is critical for land-use policy gardening and revitalization. Abukhater
Conclusion and decision making. holds a doctorate in community and re-
This article describes a methodology for con- GIS is an invaluable tool for conducting gional planning from the University of Texas
ducting community risk assessment for wild- this analysis to produce actionable knowl- at Austin; a master’s degree in urban and
fire hazard on a regional scale and provides edge and intelligence. By integrating data, regional planning from the University of
evidence of the value of using GIS in data geoprocessing tools, ModelBuilder, and Illinois at Urbana, Champaign; and a bach-
management and organization and plan- visualization tools, the impact of human elor’s degree in architectural engineering.
ning analysis. It is imperative for emergency activities on the natural and built environ- He has authored numerous publications,
respondents on one hand and planners and ment can be evaluated. State-of-the-art GIS served on many governing and advisory
policy makers on the other to take advantage visualization and analytic tools help officials boards, and received more than 20 prestig-
of this type of analysis. GIS helps model areas understand and analyze the spatial and ious awards for his work.
that are most vulnerable to wildfire. temporal characteristics of wildfire.

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