Backpropagation

Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE

2013 4673
4055
3803
3911
4366
4315
4329
3456
3360
2853
2507
3062
2014 3923
3758
4170
4241
4466
4312
4181
3716
3833
3091
3764
3422
2015 3837
3567
4741
4471
3149
3596
3381
3166
3524
3354
3139
2904
2016 2853
2667
2855
2722
2913
3190
3463
 3147
2676
2682
2759
2708
2017 2285
2448 2746 298 7541466
2325 2454 129 6024433
2495 2349 146 5516222
2373 2611 238 6817180
2511 2559 48 6546928
3104 2447 657 5989861
2714 2777 63 7709998
2501 2569 68 6597490
2455 2692 237 7248695
2239 2358 119 5560602
1941 2348 407 5513652
2018 2488
2490
2339
2701 5000
2569 4500
2299
4000
2511
2460 3500
2325 3000
2573 2500
2574
2000
2373
1500
2019 2535
2502 1000
2352 500
2494 0
2524 2013 2014 2015 2016
2384
2505
2521
2385
2469
2506
2393
219 6460593

Holt-Winters
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 4673
4055
3803
3911
4366
4315
4329
3456
3360
2853
2507
3062
2014 3923
3758
4170
4241
4466
4312
4181
3716
3833
3091
3764
3422
2015 3837
3567
4741
4471
3149
3596
3381
3166
3524
3354
3139
2904
2016 2853
2667
2855
2722
2913
3190
3463
3147
 2676
2682
2759
2708
2017 2285 2588.1411636985 303.1411636985 6698474.6832306
2448 2639.222184071 191.222184071 6965493.73689234
2325 2712.3685003481 387.3685003481 7356942.88168033
2495 2552.0626961139 57.0626961139 6513024.00489633
2373 2455.4874406263 82.4874406263 6029418.57107346
2511 2494.9755167738 16.0244832262 6224902.82930073
3104 2552.558207187 551.441792813 6515553.40107776
2714 2410.0380528946 303.9619471054 5808283.41639991
2501 2322.8337175541 178.1662824459 5395556.47940615
2455 2350.7288494767 104.2711505234 5525926.1237618
2239 2392.747914026 153.747914026 5725242.58007563
1941 2268.0134096752 327.0134096752 5143884.82646666
2018 2190.1799944819
2206.4821821795
2232.9376208649
2125.9887664559
2057.5262714097
2062.2355148823
5000
2073.1273277039
4500
1983.9641232365
1924.8725483375 4000
1917.9888475852 3500
1913.3170345429 3000
1841.9394800172
2500
2019 1792.2188252653
1773.742180288 2000
1753.5067413818 1500
1699.9148367978 1000
1659.5651021931
500
1629.4955129908
1593.6964482208 0
2013 2014 2015 2016
1557.8901935785
1526.9113791209
1485.2488456937
1433.8861550597
1415.8655503591
221.3257470561 6158558.62785514

Polynomial Regression
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 4673
4055
3803
3911
4366
4315
4329
3456
3360
2853
2507
3062
2014 3923
3758
4170
4241
4466
4312
4181
3716
3833
3091
3764
3422
2015 3837
3567
4741
4471
3149
3596
3381
3166
3524
3354
3139
2904
2016 2853
2667
2855
2722
2913
3190
3463
3147
2676
 2682
2759
2708
2017 2285
2448
2325 2543.0459612951 218.0459612951 6467082.76125915
2495 2394.5845023196 100.4154976804 5734034.93874909
2373 2357.0263391301 15.9736608699 5555573.16335282
2511 2582.9418580735 71.9418580735 6671588.64218793
3104 2443.7033293604 660.2966706396 5971685.96192715
2714 2550.6449984979 163.3550015022 6505789.90836207
2501 2770.6758440143 269.6758440143 7676644.63260455
2455 2436.7080961997 18.2919038004 5937546.34608491
2239 2496.8288656261 257.8288656261 6234154.38422361
1941 2140.3403264876 199.3403264876 4581056.71318908
2018 2193.9232580557
2400.8973522078
2303.9863642396
2308.4306082038
2305.785189262 5000
2193.3036618003
4500
1977.9759958736
2049.8013478667 4000
2046.2592454438 3500
2016.9665483799
2002.5234261548 3000
2017.7257993179 2500
2019 1941.3628903899
2000
1830.2580829838
1820.0034637773 1500
1760.7101755434
1000
1725.0423754495
1676.1906180904 500
1668.984123697 0
1593.0105579371 2013 2014 2015 2016 201
1528.6735974971
1478.4708125641
1413.2575083176
1360.6381424954
197.5165589989 6133515.74519403
MAPE
min 1941
max 4741
 10.86%
5.27%
6.23%
9.11%
1.86%
26.83%
2.26%
2.63%
8.82%
5.05%
17.34%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

8.75%
MAPE
 11.71%
7.25%
14.28%
2.24%
3.36%
0.64%
21.60%
12.61%
7.67%
4.44%
6.43%
14.42%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

8.89%

MAPE
 8.57%
4.19%
0.68%
2.79%
27.02%
6.40%
9.73%
0.75%
10.33%
9.31%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

7.98%
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.8805714286 4673
0.704 4055
0.632 3803
0.6628571429 3911
0.7928571429 4366
0.7782857143 4315
0.7822857143 4329
0.5328571429 3456
0.5054285714 3360
0.3605714286 2853
0.2617142857 2507
0.4202857143 3062
0.6662857143 3923
0.6191428571 3758
0.7368571429 4170
0.7571428571 4241
0.8214285714 4466
0.7774285714 4312
0.74 4181
0.6071428571 3716
0.6405714286 3833
0.4285714286 3091
0.6208571429 3764
0.5231428571 3422
0.6417142857 3837
0.5645714286 3567
0.9 4741
0.8228571429 4471
0.4451428571 3149
0.5728571429 3596
0.5114285714 3381
0.45 3166
0.5522857143 3524
0.5037142857 3354
0.4422857143 3139
0.3751428571 2904
0.3605714286 2853
0.3074285714 2667
0.3611428571 2855
0.3231428571 2722
0.3777142857 2913
0.4568571429 3190
0.5348571429 3463
0.4445714286 3147
0.31 2676
0.3117142857 2682
0.3337142857 2759
0.3191428571 2708
0.1982857143 2285
0.2448571429 0.330049 2448
0.2097142857 0.246706 2325
0.2582857143 0.216475 2495
0.2234285714 0.291421 2373
0.2628571429 0.276485 2511
0.4322857143 0.244691 3104
0.3208571429 0.338768 2714
0.26 0.279302 2501
0.2468571429 0.314669 2455
0.1851428571 0.219169 2239
0.1 0.216319 1941
0.256341
0.25695
0.213786
0.317128
0.279494
0.202383
0.262846
0.248152
0.209823
0.280559
0.280783
0.223558
0.26979
0.260294
0.217424
0.257912
0.266593
0.226571
0.261011
0.265718
0.226895
0.250918
0.261399
0.229047
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.8805714286 4673
0.704 4055
0.632 3803
0.6628571429 3911
0.7928571429 4366
0.7782857143 4315
0.7822857143 4329
0.5328571429 3456
0.5054285714 3360
0.3605714286 2853
0.2617142857 2507
0.4202857143 3062
0.6662857143 3923
0.6191428571 3758
0.7368571429 4170
0.7571428571 4241
0.8214285714 4466
0.7774285714 4312
0.74 4181
0.6071428571 3716
0.6405714286 3833
0.4285714286 3091
0.6208571429 3764
0.5231428571 3422
0.6417142857 3837
0.5645714286 3567
0.9 4741
0.8228571429 4471
0.4451428571 3149
0.5728571429 3596
0.5114285714 3381
0.45 3166
0.5522857143 3524
0.5037142857 3354
0.4422857143 3139
0.3751428571 2904
0.3605714286 2853
0.3074285714 2667
0.3611428571 2855
0.3231428571 2722
0.3777142857 2913
0.4568571429 3190
0.5348571429 3463
0.4445714286 3147
 0.31 2676
0.3117142857 2682
0.3337142857 2759
0.3191428571 2708
0.1982857143 0.284897 2285
0.2448571429 0.299492 2448
0.2097142857 0.320391 2325
0.2582857143 0.274589 2495
0.2234285714 0.246996 2373
0.2628571429 0.258279 2511
0.4322857143 0.274731 3104
0.3208571429 0.234011 2714
0.26 0.209095 2501
0.2468571429 0.217065 2455
0.1851428571 0.229071 2239
0.1 0.193432 1941
0.171194
0.175852
0.183411
0.152854
0.133293
0.134639
0.137751
0.112275
0.095392
0.093425
0.092091
0.071697
0.057491
0.052212
0.04643
0.031119
0.01959
0.010999
0.00077
-0.00946
-0.01831
-0.03021
-0.04489
-0.05004

Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.8805714286 4673
0.704 4055
0.632 3803
0.6628571429 3911
0.7928571429 4366
0.7782857143 4315
0.7822857143 4329
0.5328571429 3456
0.5054285714 3360
0.3605714286 2853
0.2617142857 2507
0.4202857143 3062
0.6662857143 3923
0.6191428571 3758
0.7368571429 4170
0.7571428571 4241
0.8214285714 4466
0.7774285714 4312
0.74 4181
0.6071428571 3716
0.6405714286 3833
0.4285714286 3091
0.6208571429 3764
0.5231428571 3422
0.6417142857 3837
0.5645714286 3567
0.9 4741
0.8228571429 4471
0.4451428571 3149
0.5728571429 3596
0.5114285714 3381
0.45 3166
0.5522857143 3524
0.5037142857 3354
0.4422857143 3139
0.3751428571 2904
0.3605714286 2853
0.3074285714 2667
0.3611428571 2855
0.3231428571 2722
0.3777142857 2913
0.4568571429 3190
0.5348571429 3463
0.4445714286 3147
0.31 2676
0.3117142857 2682
0.3337142857 2759
0.3191428571 2708
0.1982857143 2285
0.2448571429 2448
0.2097142857 0.272013 2325
0.2582857143 0.229596 2495
0.2234285714 0.218865 2373
0.2628571429 0.283412 2511
0.4322857143 0.24363 3104
0.3208571429 0.274184 2714
0.26 0.33705 2501
0.2468571429 0.241631 2455
0.1851428571 0.258808 2239
0.1 0.156954 1941
0.172264
0.231399
0.20371
0.20498
0.204224
0.172087
0.110565
0.131086
0.130074
0.121705
0.117578
0.121922
0.100104
0.068359
0.06543
0.048489
0.038298
0.02434
0.022281
0.000574
-0.01781
-0.03215
-0.05078
-0.06582
Backpropagation
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 4394
3673
3163
3257
3708
3847
3518
2870
2720
2117
2031
2492
2014 3434
3137
3506
3631
3804
3483
3427
3194
3195
2482
3127
2958
2015 3464
3151
4380
3451
1847
1644
1893
1886
2167
2090
2011
1975
2016 1778
1703
1779
1898
1861
1809
2140
 1775
1535
1475
1561
1530
2017 1393
1483 1430 53 2045520
1294 1522 228 2316793
1152 1532 380 2348092
1260 1381 121 1907001
1364 1708 344 2918969
1623 1606 17 2578646
1458 1449 9 2098254
1399 1406 7 1977149
1432 1286 146 1652667
1169 1600 431 2559563
960 1432 472 2051980
2018 1428
1972
1785
1426 5000
1265 4500
1536 4000
1862
3500
1739
1482 3000
1342 2500
1513 2000
1725
1500
2019 1676
1456 1000
1373 500
1476 0
1672 2013 2014 2015 2016
1601
1465
1359
1497
1597
1599
1419
201 2223149

Holt-Winters
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 4394
3673
3163
3257
3708
3847
3518
2870
2720
2117
2031
2492
2014 3434
3137
3506
3631
3804
3483
3427
3194
3195
2482
3127
2958
2015 3464
3151
4380
3451
1847
1644
1893
1886
2167
2090
2011
1975
2016 1778
1703
1779
1898
1861
1809
2140
1775
 1535
1475
1561
1530
2017 1393 1577.6757265808 184.6757265808 2489060.69824229
1483 1415.2158886389 67.7841113611 2002836.01145597
1294 1448.7987991071 154.7987991071 2099017.96029404
1152 1364.3690341466 212.3690341466 1861502.8613381
1260 1396.6403635726 136.6403635726 1950604.30516026
1364 1255.362742365 108.637257635 1575935.61491817
1623 1275.0243327994 347.9756672006 1625687.04923048
1458 1198.7380664182 259.2619335818 1436972.95188
1399 1215.6050005644 183.3949994356 1477695.51739725
1432 1095.5095960911 336.4904039089 1200141.27512769
1169 1101.2498664917 67.7501335083 1212751.26844797
960 1033.1070986898 73.1070986898 1067310.2773632
2018 1034.5696375562
935.6564498172
927.475400184
867.4761309614 5000
853.5342745481 4500
775.8033035433
4000
753.7009338763
701.845163233 3500
672.4989115399 3000
615.9501572694 2500
579.9264675687
2000
536.2141955045
1500
2019 491.4635485317
456.0970109955 1000
406.152001261 500
370.5832277761 0
310.4281855235 2013 2014 2015 2016 201
296.2438647216
232.3775349533
204.9522600477
129.3928225153
136.3907184477
58.6030686456
39.3212923193
177.7404607273 1666626.31590462

Polynomial Regression
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 4394
3673
3163
3257
3708
3847
3518
2870
2720
2117
2031
2492
2014 3434
3137
3506
3631
3804
3483
3427
3194
3195
2482
3127
2958
2015 3464
3151
4380
3451
1847
1644
1893
1886
2167
2090
2011
1975
2016 1778
1703
1779
1898
1861
1809
2140
1775
1535
 1475
1561
1530
2017 1393
1483
1294 1483.2036802582 189.2036802582 2199893.15713142
1152 1384.5605456284 232.5605456283 1917007.90451066
1260 1247.255167343 12.744832657 1555645.45246385
1364 1308.336671702 55.663328298 1711744.84652025
1623 1283.744012317 339.255987683 1647998.68915972
1458 1286.4264106092 171.5735893908 1654892.90991296
1399 1397.6531647782 1.3468352218 1953434.36901445
1432 1254.5935700257 177.4064299743 1574005.02594992
1169 1279.760551123 110.760551123 1637787.06821075
960 1230.0295970973 270.0295970973 1512972.80973529
2018 1157.4066333313
1251.6114044258
1161.6205511703 5000
1100.5672474283
4500
1137.2214649568
1030.138308188 4000
919.5416083917
3500
953.5565297618
971.9365692348 3000
906.5528559127
2500
852.6249047635
853.2994591793 2000
2019 792.4169156165
1500
724.8773497367
702.6262331527 1000
688.9484280605
500
633.5564451654
583.9274581561 0
559.5590395304 2013 2014 2015 2016
511.8410279235
458.42209616
420.2194040035
391.0809400843
340.3139921249
156.0545377332 1736538.22326093
MAPE
min 960
max 4394
 3.69%
14.99%
24.82%
8.76%
20.16%
1.07%
0.65%
0.51%
11.39%
26.93%
32.98%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

13.27%
MAPE
 11.71%
4.79%
10.68%
15.57%
9.78%
8.65%
27.29%
21.63%
15.09%
30.72%
6.15%
7.08%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

14.09%

MAPE
 12.76%
16.80%
1.02%
4.25%
26.43%
13.34%
0.10%
14.14%
8.65%
21.95%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11.94%
Normalisasi Denormalsasi
0.9 4394
0.732032615 3673
0.6132207338 3163
0.6351193943 3257
0.7401863716 3708
0.7725684333 3847
0.6959231217 3518
0.5449621433 2870
0.5100174723 2720
0.3695398952 2117
0.3495049505 2031
0.4569015725 2492
0.676354106 3434
0.6071636575 3137
0.693127548 3506
0.7222481072 3631
0.762550961 3804
0.6877693652 3483
0.6747233547 3427
0.6204426325 3194
0.620675597 3195
0.4545719278 2482
0.6048340128 3127
0.5654630169 2958
0.6833430402 3464
0.6104251602 3151
0.8967384974 4380
0.680314502 3451
0.3066394875 1847
0.2593476995 1644
0.3173558532 1893
0.3157251019 1886
0.3811881188 2167
0.3632498544 2090
0.344845661 2011
0.33645894 1975
0.2905649388 1778
0.2730926034 1703
0.2907979033 1779
0.3185206756 1898
0.3099009901 1861
0.2977868375 1809
0.374898078 2140
0.2898660454 1775
0.2339545719 1535
0.2199767036 1475
0.2400116482 1561
0.2327897496 1530
0.2008736168 1393
0.2218404193 0.209544 1483
0.177810134 0.23095 1294
0.1447291788 0.233337 1152
0.1698893419 0.198065 1260
0.1941176471 0.274374 1364
0.2544554455 0.250452 1623
0.2160163075 0.213811 1458
0.2022714036 0.203928 1399
0.2099592312 0.175844 1432
0.1486895748 0.249065 1169
0.1 0.21007 960
0.209117
0.335692
0.292212
0.208499
0.171042
0.234172
0.310081
0.281535
0.221721
0.189055
0.228825
0.278254
0.266687
0.215501
0.196293
0.22011
0.265901
0.249316
0.217605
0.193014
0.225197
0.248372
0.248835
0.206927
Normalisasi Denormalsasi
0.9 4394
0.732032615 3673
0.6132207338 3163
0.6351193943 3257
0.7401863716 3708
0.7725684333 3847
0.6959231217 3518
0.5449621433 2870
0.5100174723 2720
0.3695398952 2117
0.3495049505 2031
0.4569015725 2492
0.676354106 3434
0.6071636575 3137
0.693127548 3506
0.7222481072 3631
0.762550961 3804
0.6877693652 3483
0.6747233547 3427
0.6204426325 3194
0.620675597 3195
0.4545719278 2482
0.6048340128 3127
0.5654630169 2958
0.6833430402 3464
0.6104251602 3151
0.8967384974 4380
0.680314502 3451
0.3066394875 1847
0.2593476995 1644
0.3173558532 1893
0.3157251019 1886
0.3811881188 2167
0.3632498544 2090
0.344845661 2011
0.33645894 1975
0.2905649388 1778
0.2730926034 1703
0.2907979033 1779
0.3185206756 1898
0.3099009901 1861
0.2977868375 1809
0.374898078 2140
0.2898660454 1775
 0.2339545719 1535
0.2199767036 1475
0.2400116482 1561
0.2327897496 1530
0.2008736168 0.243897 1393
0.2218404193 0.206049 1483
0.177810134 0.213873 1294
0.1447291788 0.194204 1152
0.1698893419 0.201722 1260
0.1941176471 0.168809 1364
0.2544554455 0.173389 1623
0.2160163075 0.155617 1458
0.2022714036 0.159547 1399
0.2099592312 0.131569 1432
0.1486895748 0.132906 1169
0.1 0.117031 960
0.117372
0.094329
0.092423
0.078445
0.075197
0.057089
0.05194
0.039859
0.033022
0.019849
0.011456
0.001273
-0.00915
-0.01739
-0.02903
-0.03731
-0.05133
-0.05463
-0.06951
-0.0759
-0.0935
-0.09187
-0.10999
-0.11449

Normalisasi Denormalsasi
 0.9 4394
0.732032615 3673
0.6132207338 3163
0.6351193943 3257
0.7401863716 3708
0.7725684333 3847
0.6959231217 3518
0.5449621433 2870
0.5100174723 2720
0.3695398952 2117
0.3495049505 2031
0.4569015725 2492
0.676354106 3434
0.6071636575 3137
0.693127548 3506
0.7222481072 3631
0.762550961 3804
0.6877693652 3483
0.6747233547 3427
0.6204426325 3194
0.620675597 3195
0.4545719278 2482
0.6048340128 3127
0.5654630169 2958
0.6833430402 3464
0.6104251602 3151
0.8967384974 4380
0.680314502 3451
0.3066394875 1847
0.2593476995 1644
0.3173558532 1893
0.3157251019 1886
0.3811881188 2167
0.3632498544 2090
0.344845661 2011
0.33645894 1975
0.2905649388 1778
0.2730926034 1703
0.2907979033 1779
0.3185206756 1898
0.3099009901 1861
0.2977868375 1809
0.374898078 2140
0.2898660454 1775
0.2339545719 1535
0.2199767036 1475
0.2400116482 1561
0.2327897496 1530
0.2008736168 1393
0.2218404193 1483
0.177810134 0.221888 1294
0.1447291788 0.198908 1152
0.1698893419 0.16692 1260
0.1941176471 0.18115 1364
0.2544554455 0.175421 1623
0.2160163075 0.176046 1458
0.2022714036 0.201958 1399
0.2099592312 0.16863 1432
0.1486895748 0.174493 1169
0.1 0.162907 960
0.145989
0.167935
0.14697
0.132747
0.141286
0.11634
0.090575
0.098499
0.102781
0.087549
0.074985
0.075143
0.060959
0.045225
0.040041
0.036855
0.02395
0.012388
0.006711
-0.00441
-0.01685
-0.02575
-0.03254
-0.04436
Backpropagation
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 13
7
5
10
4
5
12
14
16
17
9
4
2014 5
8
15
19
14
17
10
16
12
11
10
10
2015 9
6
4
5
14
11
20
13
11
11
15
14
2016 16 14.01 1.99 196.2950
12 12.60 0.60 158.7609
11 10.37 0.63 107.5896
14 8.90 5.10 79.2499
13 11.57 1.43 133.8018
11 13.00 2.00 168.9657
7 10.68 3.68 114.1412
 9 7.85 1.15 61.5820
12 9.27 2.73 85.9316
10 13.26 3.26 175.9102
13 12.72 0.28 161.8268
5 11.71 6.71 137.0452
2017 7 8.41 1.41 70.7318
6 7.61 1.61 57.9690
4 10.05 6.05 100.9903
4 10.00 6.00 99.9749
5 9.20 4.20 84.5705
6 10.37 4.37 107.4596
5 11.53 6.53 132.9054
4 10.59 6.59 112.2492
7 9.18 2.18 84.2722
8 10.70 2.70 114.5354
9 12.45 3.45 154.8967
4 12.11 8.11 146.7697
2018 8.67
9.57
12.86
13.89 25
13.28
11.69
10.01 20
9.26
9.69
10.84 15
12.01
12.53
2019 12.24 10
11.45
10.64
10.27 5
10.47
11.02
0
11.58
2013 2014 2015 2016 201
11.84
11.72
11.33
10.95
10.75
3.5118331307 115.309984775

Holt-Winters
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 13
7
5
10
4
5
12
14
16
17
9
4
2014 5
8
15
19
14
17
10
16
12
11
10
10
2015 9
6
4
5
14
11
20
13
11
11
15
14
2016 16 10.89 5.11 118.5714
12 12.53 0.53 157.0509
11 14.96 3.96 223.8481
14 11.94 2.06 142.5236
13 13.02 0.02 169.6299
11 11.21 0.21 125.6414
7 12.35 5.35 152.5457
9 8.98 0.02 80.6112
 12 7.43 4.57 55.1652
10 6.56 3.44 43.0878
13 8.41 4.59 70.7048
5 12.98 7.98 168.5343
2017 7 11.46 4.46 131.2612
6 6.16 0.16 37.9747
4 4.84 0.84 23.4178
4 0.97 3.03 0.9321
5 3.02 1.98 9.1046
6 1.72 4.28 2.9705
5 4.22 0.78 17.8146
4 4.46 0.46 19.8689
7 7.42 0.42 55.0181
8 7.09 0.91 50.3205
9 8.15 0.85 66.3889
4 8.13 4.13 66.0267
2018 9.22
8.51
8.40
5.55
8.74 25
8.11
7.87
20
4.85
8.15
7.63 15
7.27
4.02
10
2019 7.46
7.03
6.71 5
3.04
6.61 0
6.19 2013 2014 2015 2016 20
6.04
1.87
5.62
5.21
5.11
0.38
2.51 82.88

Polynomial Regression
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 13
7
5
10
4
5
12
14
16
17
9
4
2014 5
8
15
19
14
17
10
16
12
11
10
10
2015 9
6
4
5
14
11
20
13
11
11
15
14
2016 16
12 10.30 1.70 106.0001
11 9.95 1.05 98.9076
14 8.72 5.28 76.1093
13 12.02 0.98 144.4102
11 12.76 1.76 162.9107
7 9.87 2.87 97.3480
9 6.43 2.57 41.3424
12 9.00 3.00 80.9390
 10 13.76 3.76 189.4681
13 11.98 1.02 143.4794
5 10.45 5.45 109.2062
2017 7 8.07 1.07 65.0621
6 7.53 1.53 56.6777
4 10.76 6.76 115.8722
4 9.44 5.44 89.1754
5 8.59 3.59 73.8167
6 9.19 3.19 84.4273
5 12.03 7.03 144.7247
4 10.36 6.36 107.4217
7 8.95 1.95 80.1646
8 11.19 3.19 125.1601
9 13.34 4.34 178.0545
4 12.37 8.37 153.0301
2018 8.59
9.64
14.40
15.04 25
14.20
11.27
10.20 20
9.22
10.54
10.91 15
11.39
10.89
2019 10.71 10
10.52
10.98
5
11.19
11.41
11.16
0
10.97 2013 2014 2015 2016 201
10.76
10.83
10.91
11.06
11.05
3.58 109.73
MAPE
min 4
max 20

14.20%
4.76%
6.05%
57.26%
12.39%
15.38%
34.48%
 14.69%
29.45%
24.60%
2.19%
57.29%
16.77%
21.20%
60.20%
59.99%
45.63%
42.12%
56.63%
62.25%
23.75%
25.25%
27.69%
66.98%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

33.35%
MAPE

46.94%
4.25%
26.48%
17.27%
0.19%
1.86%
43.32%
0.24%
 61.57%
52.34%
54.60%
61.49%
38.90%
2.63%
17.34%
314.30%
65.71%
248.12%
18.46%
10.26%
5.63%
12.78%
10.46%
50.77%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

14 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

48.58%

MAPE
16.55%
10.61%
60.48%
8.18%
13.82%
29.05%
39.97%
33.38%
 27.35%
8.53%
52.15%
13.22%
20.30%
62.84%
57.64%
41.80%
34.70%
58.44%
61.41%
21.82%
28.49%
32.55%
67.67%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

34.82%
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.55 13
0.25 7
0.15 5
0.4 10
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.5 12
0.6 14
0.7 16
0.75 17
0.35 9
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.3 8
0.65 15
0.85 19
0.6 14
0.75 17
0.4 10
0.7 16
0.5 12
0.45 11
0.4 10
0.4 10
0.35 9
0.2 6
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.6 14
0.45 11
0.9 20
0.55 13
0.45 11
0.45 11
0.65 15
0.6 14
0.7 0.600527 16
0.5 0.530002 12
0.45 0.418627 11
0.6 0.345112 14
0.55 0.478364 13
0.45 0.549934 11
0.25 0.434185 7
0.35 0.292371 9
0.5 0.363497 12
0.4 0.563156 10
0.55 0.536056 13
0.15 0.485332 5
0.25 0.320511 7
0.2 0.280687 6
0.1 0.40247 4
0.1 0.399937 4
0.15 0.359811 5
0.2 0.418314 6
0.15 0.476423 5
0.1 0.429739 4
0.25 0.358999 7
0.3 0.435106 8
0.35 0.522287 9
0.1 0.505743 4
0.33362
0.378714
0.542835
0.59457
0.563901
0.484435
0.400528
0.362836
0.38434
0.441832
0.500387
0.526396
0.512205
0.472284
0.432119
0.413636
0.423453
0.451218
0.479118
0.492221
0.485789
0.466714
0.447328
0.437712
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.55 13
0.25 7
0.15 5
0.4 10
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.5 12
0.6 14
0.7 16
0.75 17
0.35 9
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.3 8
0.65 15
0.85 19
0.6 14
0.75 17
0.4 10
0.7 16
0.5 12
0.45 11
0.4 10
0.4 10
0.35 9
0.2 6
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.6 14
0.45 11
0.9 20
0.55 13
0.45 11
0.45 11
0.65 15
0.6 14
0.7 0.444452 16
0.5 0.5266 12
0.45 0.648078 11
0.6 0.496916 14
0.55 0.55121 13
0.45 0.460449 11
0.25 0.517547 7
0.35 0.348919 9
 0.5 0.271366 12
0.4 0.228206 10
0.55 0.320431 13
0.15 0.549104 5
0.25 0.472846 7
0.2 0.208118 6
0.1 0.14196 4
0.1 -0.05173 4
0.15 0.050869 5
0.2 -0.01382 6
0.15 0.111037 5
0.1 0.122873 4
0.25 0.270871 7
0.3 0.254685 8
0.35 0.307397 9
0.1 0.306284 4
0.360967
0.325709
0.319904
0.177565
0.336813
0.305549
0.293413
0.142571
0.307613
0.281598
0.263543
0.101241
0.272969
0.251281
0.235272
0.051934
0.230541
0.209605
0.202189
-0.00653
0.180839
0.160351
0.155397
-0.08083

Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.55 13
0.25 7
0.15 5
0.4 10
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.5 12
0.6 14
0.7 16
0.75 17
0.35 9
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.3 8
0.65 15
0.85 19
0.6 14
0.75 17
0.4 10
0.7 16
0.5 12
0.45 11
0.4 10
0.4 10
0.35 9
0.2 6
0.1 4
0.15 5
0.6 14
0.45 11
0.9 20
0.55 13
0.45 11
0.45 11
0.65 15
0.6 14
0.7 16
0.5 0.414782 12
0.45 0.397262 11
0.6 0.336203 14
0.55 0.500854 13
0.45 0.538182 11
0.25 0.393325 7
0.35 0.22149 9
0.5 0.349831 12
 0.4 0.588237 10
0.55 0.498914 13
0.15 0.422509 5
0.25 0.303305 7
0.2 0.276423 6
0.1 0.43822 4
0.1 0.372164 4
0.15 0.329583 5
0.2 0.359422 6
0.15 0.501508 5
0.1 0.418222 4
0.25 0.347673 7
0.3 0.459375 8
0.35 0.567185 9
0.1 0.518527 4
0.329441
0.382071
0.619919
0.652164
0.609936
0.463338
0.40991
0.361178
0.426945
0.445542
0.469529
0.44468
0.435266
0.426144
0.449046
0.459431
0.470325
0.458058
0.448433
0.438246
0.44139
0.445684
0.452779
0.45225
Backpropagation
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 12
4
5
6
10
11
7
5
9
15
13
8
2014 14
9
10
15
18
16
20
21
13
12
8
5
2015 11
14
12
6
7
8
10
11
17
13
15
12
2016 21
17 18.32 1.32 335.7554
15 14.48 0.52 209.7426
5 12.69 7.69 160.9126
6 7.33 1.33 53.7228
15 8.08 6.92 65.2986
12 16.94 4.94 287.1106
 9 9.69 0.69 93.9903
17 11.60 5.40 134.6642
15 14.74 0.26 217.3564
20 12.06 7.94 145.4455
12 20.33 8.33 413.2095
2017 4 8.71 4.71 75.9054
6 7.11 1.11 50.5131
5 11.20 6.20 125.3623
4 6.26 2.26 39.1529
6 10.03 4.03 100.5919
7 8.70 1.70 75.7354
8 7.78 0.22 60.5255
9 11.45 2.45 131.1690
10 11.10 1.10 123.1564
12 11.42 0.58 130.3979
11 13.58 2.58 184.4327
9 11.63 2.63 135.3303
2018 10.35
11.96
12.55
13.30
13.17 25
12.11
12.12
20
12.54
12.45
12.42
15
12.31
11.87
2019 11.76 10
11.98
12.04
12.04 5
12.09
12.02
11.98 0
12.09 2013 2014 2015 2016
12.15
12.14
12.15
12.11
3.26 145.63

Holt-WInters
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 12
4
5
6
10
11
7
5
9
15
13
8
2014 14
9
10
15
18
16
20
21
13
12
8
5
2015 11
14
12
6
7
8
10
11
17
13
15
12
2016 21 15.20 5.80 231.0480
17 16.95 0.05 287.4387
15 17.61 2.61 310.1665
5 14.39 9.39 206.9462
6 14.79 8.79 218.7815
15 8.56 6.44 73.2355
12 10.70 1.30 114.5490
9 6.83 2.17 46.7153
 17 11.99 5.01 143.6602
15 15.38 0.38 236.6747
20 13.92 6.08 193.7485
12 12.72 0.72 161.7975
2017 4 17.78 13.78 316.0132
6 12.10 6.10 146.4655
5 9.48 4.48 89.9275
4 1.19 2.81 1.4143
6 3.20 2.80 10.2446
7 5.97 1.03 35.6535
8 6.57 1.43 43.1894
9 2.42 6.58 5.8569
10 6.60 3.40 43.5081
12 9.77 2.23 95.3797
11 11.60 0.60 134.6618
9 8.21 0.79 67.4401
2018 9.37
10.95
11.30 25
8.59
9.24
10.87 20
11.23
8.34
8.72 15
10.37
10.75
7.74 10
2019 7.77
9.62
10.05 5
7.28
7.30
8.88 0
2013 2014 2015 2016
9.33
6.39
6.04
7.70
8.00
5.08
3.95 133.94

Polynomial Regression
Tahun Data Aktual Hasil Peramalan MAD MSE
2013 12
4
5
6
10
11
7
5
9
15
13
8
2014 14
9
10
15
18
16
20
21
13
12
8
5
2015 11
14
12
6
7
8
10
11
17
13
15
12
2016 21
17 20.94 3.94 438.3605
15 12.20 2.80 148.8579
5 15.18 10.18 230.4187
6 3.46 2.54 11.9488
15 7.88 7.12 62.1247
12 15.29 3.29 233.7744
9 11.14 2.14 124.1464
17 12.22 4.78 149.4380
 15 13.19 1.81 173.8627
20 12.46 7.54 155.2248
12 22.55 10.55 508.5198
2017 4 6.56 2.56 42.9898
6 7.20 1.20 51.8098
5 6.88 1.88 47.3919
4 6.21 2.21 38.5575
6 8.59 2.59 73.8439
7 6.25 0.75 39.0091
8 6.53 1.47 42.6278
9 10.26 1.26 105.2088
10 10.33 0.33 106.6434
12 11.11 0.89 123.4987
11 13.40 2.40 179.5548
9 12.10 3.10 146.5176
2018 11.13
12.25
12.66
14.22
14.23 25
13.25
13.85
20
13.85
13.33
13.85 15
13.74
13.12
10
2019 13.43
13.43
13.11 5
13.46
13.49
0
13.22 2013 2014 2015 2016 2
13.44
13.47
13.28
13.46
13.49
13.33
3.36 140.62
MAPE
min 4
max 21

7.22%
3.57%
60.58%
18.14%
85.63%
29.18%
 7.17%
46.49%
1.74%
65.84%
40.97%
54.09%
15.58%
55.34%
36.07%
40.18%
19.56%
2.83%
21.42%
9.89%
5.09%
19.00%
22.63%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

29.05%
MAPE

38.16%
0.27%
14.83%
65.24%
59.44%
75.28%
12.12%
31.68%
 41.83%
2.50%
43.68%
5.66%
77.50%
50.42%
47.27%
236.35%
87.46%
17.23%
21.73%
271.89%
51.61%
22.87%
5.21%
9.59%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

53.74%

MAPE
18.80%
22.94%
67.06%
73.58%
90.31%
21.52%
19.23%
39.07%
 13.76%
60.53%
46.79%
38.99%
16.64%
27.37%
35.58%
30.18%
12.08%
22.53%
12.26%
3.16%
7.98%
17.91%
25.65%

Data Aktual
Hasil Peramalan

014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

31.47%
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.4764705882 12
0.1 4
0.1470588235 5
0.1941176471 6
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.2411764706 7
0.1470588235 5
0.3352941176 9
0.6176470588 15
0.5235294118 13
0.2882352941 8
0.5705882353 14
0.3352941176 9
0.3823529412 10
0.6176470588 15
0.7588235294 18
0.6647058824 16
0.8529411765 20
0.9 21
0.5235294118 13
0.4764705882 12
0.2882352941 8
0.1470588235 5
0.4294117647 11
0.5705882353 14
0.4764705882 12
0.1941176471 6
0.2411764706 7
0.2882352941 8
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.7117647059 17
0.5235294118 13
0.6176470588 15
0.4764705882 12
0.9 21
0.7117647059 0.774053 17
0.6176470588 0.593294 15
0.1470588235 0.508712 5
0.1941176471 0.256686 6
0.6176470588 0.292035 15
0.4764705882 0.709145 12
0.3352941176 0.367993 9
0.7117647059 0.457858 17
0.6176470588 0.605553 15
0.8529411765 0.479298 20
0.4764705882 0.868356 12
0.1 0.321758 4
0.1941176471 0.246224 6
0.1470588235 0.43866 5
0.1 0.206223 4
0.1941176471 0.383744 6
0.2411764706 0.321299 7
0.2882352941 0.277874 8
0.3352941176 0.450725 9
0.3823529412 0.434004 10
0.4764705882 0.449138 12
0.4294117647 0.550852 11
0.3352941176 0.459207 9
0.398673
0.474621
0.50238
0.537702
0.531419
0.481755
0.482232
0.501966
0.497698
0.496008
0.491226
0.47044
0.465204
0.475702
0.478445
0.478247
0.480621
0.477417
0.475474
0.480591
0.483557
0.483116
0.483474
0.48171
Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.4764705882 12
0.1 4
0.1470588235 5
0.1941176471 6
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.2411764706 7
0.1470588235 5
0.3352941176 9
0.6176470588 15
0.5235294118 13
0.2882352941 8
0.5705882353 14
0.3352941176 9
0.3823529412 10
0.6176470588 15
0.7588235294 18
0.6647058824 16
0.8529411765 20
0.9 21
0.5235294118 13
0.4764705882 12
0.2882352941 8
0.1470588235 5
0.4294117647 11
0.5705882353 14
0.4764705882 12
0.1941176471 6
0.2411764706 7
0.2882352941 8
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.7117647059 17
0.5235294118 13
0.6176470588 15
0.4764705882 12
0.9 0.627071 21
0.7117647059 0.709601 17
0.6176470588 0.740543 15
0.1470588235 0.588735 5
0.1941176471 0.607824 6
0.6176470588 0.314484 15
0.4764705882 0.415424 12
0.3352941176 0.233405 9
 0.7117647059 0.475804 17
0.6176470588 0.635729 15
0.8529411765 0.566793 20
0.4764705882 0.510351 12
0.1 0.748318 4
0.1941176471 0.481284 6
0.1470588235 0.358024 5
0.1 -0.03227 4
0.1941176471 0.062387 6
0.2411764706 0.192755 7
0.2882352941 0.221029 8
0.3352941176 0.025652 9
0.3823529412 0.222168 10
0.4764705882 0.371353 12
0.4294117647 0.457853 11
0.3352941176 0.298221 9
0.352589
0.427275
0.443641
0.316199
0.346601
0.423198
0.440458
0.304086
0.321895
0.399878
0.417493
0.275909
0.277439
0.364297
0.384817
0.254381
0.255326
0.329712
0.350781
0.212481
0.195901
0.274065
0.288405
0.15104

Normalisasi Denormalisasi
0.4764705882 12
0.1 4
0.1470588235 5
0.1941176471 6
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.2411764706 7
0.1470588235 5
0.3352941176 9
0.6176470588 15
0.5235294118 13
0.2882352941 8
0.5705882353 14
0.3352941176 9
0.3823529412 10
0.6176470588 15
0.7588235294 18
0.6647058824 16
0.8529411765 20
0.9 21
0.5235294118 13
0.4764705882 12
0.2882352941 8
0.1470588235 5
0.4294117647 11
0.5705882353 14
0.4764705882 12
0.1941176471 6
0.2411764706 7
0.2882352941 8
0.3823529412 10
0.4294117647 11
0.7117647059 17
0.5235294118 13
0.6176470588 15
0.4764705882 12
0.9 21
0.7117647059 0.897038 17
0.6176470588 0.485917 15
0.1470588235 0.626096 5
0.1941176471 0.074433 6
0.6176470588 0.282679 15
0.4764705882 0.631279 12
0.3352941176 0.436099 9
0.7117647059 0.487034 17
0.6176470588 0.532268 15
0.8529411765 0.498067 20
0.4764705882 0.972959 12
0.1 0.220313 4
0.1941176471 0.25049 6
0.1470588235 0.235726 5
0.1 0.203975 4
0.1941176471 0.316153 6
0.2411764706 0.205681 7
0.2882352941 0.219012 8
0.3352941176 0.394453 9
0.3823529412 0.397733 10
0.4764705882 0.434729 12
0.4294117647 0.542344 11
0.3352941176 0.481386 9
0.435741
0.488076
0.507737
0.580724
0.58122
0.535314
0.563513
0.563496
0.539095
0.563611
0.558306
0.529059
0.543696
0.543563
0.528908
0.545123
0.546658
0.53374
0.544245
0.545634
0.536706
0.545082
0.546563
0.539044